"That cold black cloud is comin' down
Feels like I'm knockin' on heaven's door"
So close and yet – so far.
As you can see from our Big Chart, we are certainly knock, knock, knockin' on our breakouts at the 10% levels. One more score and we're officially ready to raise our stops again – but it's a long process as we'll need the Nasdaq to confirm the S&P's move up and then we'll want to see a re-test of our 5 & 10% lines from the top and THEN we'll be ready to call them our new Must Hold line.
If that sounds like tough standards – keep in mind that's exactly the logic that saved our assets back in September – the last time we had a rally that ultimately failed. I know it seems like the distant past in market terms but trust me, it happened.
In September we were skeptical and bearish (and for good reasons, as it turned out) and we had our Long Put list with plenty of short positions. Now we are hopeful and bullish as we once again attempt to prove out a new range, where S&P 1,440 and Nasdaq 3,150 etc become the bottom of a range we'll expect to go 10% higher (1,600!) at some point this year. That's IF we can get to 1,520 before we lose the NYSE or Russell, both of which currently are floating about 1% over their 10% lines. As I said to our Members this morning:
AAPL is like a coiled spring that can be released and kick the market up 1-2% on a 5-10% move higher or a full 5% on a 20% move up in AAPL – like the time they went from $85 to $200 in 2009 or the time they went from $200 to $300 in 2010 or the time they went from $315 to $400 in 2011 or the time they went from $400 to $600 in 2012 or that other time in 2012, when they went from $550 to $700… Have I mentioned that AAPL is my stock of the year lately?