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Terminal Tuesday – 2013 Comes to an End

INDU WEEKLYWill it be a happy new year? 

Hard to imagine it being happier for the markets than 2013, with the indexes closing at record highs and investor optimism nearing 80% bullish – as good as it's been since October of 1929 – just day's before the crash.  Earnings were also looking great in 1929 and the gap between the top 1% and the bottom 99% had never been greater – until now.  

That's another record we've shattered in this trickle-less rally, wealth disparity is at an all-time high.  The top 10% are partying like it's 1999, and why shouldn't they?  The top 10% control 83% of the country's financial wealth, 50% more than they did in 1929 and the next 10% have 12%, leaving 5% for the bottom 80% to share.  

There's no use complaining about it, these are the conditions we're living in (well, that's what we like to say to the bottom 80% – to keep them from revolting!).  If the prevailing social condition is slavery and the average white plantation owner has 200 slaves, then we should buy stock in the plantations, right?  

That's what we do when we play the markets, there was a brief fad of "social-conscience investment funds" but, of course, they underperformed and no one wanted them and they died a quick death.  There are, in fact, just 29M people in the World who have more than $1M and only another 344M people who have more than $100,000 in assets.  Between them, these 373M people, just 5% of the World's population, control 82.4% of the World's assets.  

That's US and, believe me, you do NOT want to be one of THEM.  You may think you can live fighting with the bottom 90% for your share of the remaining 17.6% but, essentially, it's like permanently moving to Survivor Island – and you've seen that experience break down even the strongest of people.  Even the poorest Americans are typically in the top half of the global wealth dung-heap and the poorest Europeans as well – the rest of the world suffers beneath us all.  

Ken Langone is one rich person that won't be pushed around by the poor, telling New York's Cardinal Timothy Dolan that he needs to shut the Pope's trap if he wants to see any more donations for a new cathedral from his crowd.  "I've told the cardinal, 'Your Eminence, this is one more hurdle I hope we don't have to deal with. You want to be careful about generalities. Rich people in one country don't act the same as rich people in another country,' " Langone said.  And of course, he's right – rich people in other countries wouldn't have the balls to strong-arm the Pope!   

Some of the statements in question are from Francis' first teaching, or "exhortation," a 224-page document issued in late November. In it, the pontiff criticizes what he calls "an economy of exclusion and inequality," blaming ideologies that "defend the absolute autonomy of the marketplace and financial speculation."

Dolan told CNBC that he had heard from Langone and said, " 'Well, Ken, that would be a misunderstanding of the Holy Father's message. The pope loves poor people. He also loves rich people.' … So I said, 'Ken, thanks for bringing it to my attention. We've gotta correct to make sure this gentleman understands the Holy Father's message properly.' And then I think he's gonna say, 'Oh, OK. If that's the case, count me in for St. Patrick's Cathedral.' "

I guess if you want to be the Cardinal for NYC, you do have to learn how to kiss rich people's asses.  I wonder if the Pope will learn the same lesson in 2014 when the Vatican needs a new wing or whatever?

I predicted back in 2010 that the Fed's ridiculous experiment in trickle down economics would do nothing but widen these gaps and we had a brief flurry of protests by Occupy Wall Street in 2011, but that movement was quickly and violently crushed out of existence.  At the Nato Chicago meeting in 2012, protestors were clubbed and arrested and globally, we've had many instances most of which were quickly repressed.  That's GOOD!  We are the repressors – it means we're winning!  

After all, what was the 2008 crisis?  Banks ran out of money to lend.  What's the solution?  Give them FREE MONEY!  And we have given them Trillions and Trillions of Dollars and the people have gone into more and more debt, doubling our load in the last 5 years to over $17Tn.  That debt is divided equally among all citizens so the Government and the Fed borrowed (assuming you are one of the 140M working Americans) $60,000 on your behalf and they gave it to Banksters and Corporations who, so far, have essentially hoarded it.  

Again, just like with the plantation owners – you can't beat them, you can't join them – but at least we can bet on them through the stock market (those very few of us with enough wealth assets to invest, of course).  And that's how we "won" in 2013 and that's how we'll "win" in 2014 – by playing the game.  It's a rigged game – it's not very hard to play – as long as the Corporations, their pet politicians and the Mainstream Media can keep the riff-raff in line.  

142466 600 Gang of Eight cartoons

Here's wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2014!

Happy New Year, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Members. Best wishes to you and yours for 2014.

    May the new year bring  peace, joy and happiness.


  2. Pope / Phil – These guys really make me laugh:

    Arthur Brooks, head of the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank that promotes free markets, said he agrees that the pope's beliefs are likely informed by his Argentine heritage.

    "In places like Argentina, what they call free enterprise is a combination of socialism and crony capitalism," he said.

    Brooks, also a practicing Catholic who has read the pope's exhortation in its original Spanish, said that "taken as a whole, the exhortation is good and right and beautiful. But it's limited in its understanding of economics from the American context." He noted that Francis "is not an economist and not an American."

    "For American Catholics and Americans in general, we have a moral responsibility to the poor to spread the word of true free enterprise around the world," Brooks said. "By doing that, we have the best shot of meeting the Holy Father's objectives, which are good objectives."

    I would like them to point out the passages in the Bible where Jesus mentions free enterprise! If I recall my Sunday school days:

    And Jesus said to His disciples, "Truly I say to you, it is hard for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven. "Again I say to you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God." When the disciples heard this, they were very astonished and said, "Then who can be saved?"…

    Better keep on praying Ken Langone:

    Langone, who describes himself as a devout Catholic who prays every morning, said he has told the cardinal that "you get more with honey than with vinegar." 


  3. Good morning! Hope everyone is profitable in the last trading day of 2013! :)


  4. Oil Lines

    R3 – 101.43
    R2 – 100.92
    R1 – 100.14
    PP – 99.63
    S1 – 98.85
    S2 – 98.34
    S3 – 97.56

    S2 busted already… Could be interesting,


  5. Phil what do you think about NFLX's 6.99 thing?

    http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1485981?source=ipadportfolioapp_email


  6. Phil,

    Following up on your thgts that SHLD is worth more dead than alive, there is a 12/30 SA article (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1919971) that incorporates an extensive analysis by Baker Capital which comes up with a liquidated range of $9.1 – 16.9 bn which equates to a stk pr of $85-158/sh.

    With SHLD at 47 (40-67 past yr), and it being unlikely that Fast Eddie can close things down before '17 or '18 at the earliest, how would you structure layers of  BCSs: 1/15s – 45/60 or 50/70 and/or 1/16s 55/80 or 60/90?

    Would you sell  40 puts now, and some if we have a mkt sell off in Jan?

    As always, thanks in advance


  7. Good Morning!


  8. Good morning!  

    Oil fell all the way to $98.15 before turning back up, now back at $98.56 and we'll just see which way it breaks now.  Essentially, all that nonsense above this line is likely over.

    Gold fell all the way to $1,181 and now $1,188 so good for another long play if they break over $1,190 or bounce at $1,185 (/YG) and the Dollar is 80.20 so we'll have to keep an eye on that too.  

    The indexes, as expected, are getting their year-end pump job.  S&P just 6 points away from goal (1,850) and you KNOW they want it, so let's not stand in their way.  

    VIX 13.40, TLT 102.27 – amazing confidence into the holiday…  We have Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence and State Street Confidence today and all should be good so no reason not to hit our goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllllllll today.  

    Redbook Chain Store Sales: +4.5% Y/Y vs. +3.9% last week.

    ICSC Retail Store Sales: +1.0% W/W, vs. +1.4% last week.

    S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +1.0% M/M vs. +1.0% expected, +1.0% prior (revised).

    • +13.6% Y/Y vs. +13.7% expected, +13.3% prior (revised).

  9. FU WYNN!


  10. Happy New Year Phil!  What do you think of DVN?  Thanks for all you do!


  11. Pope/StJ – Note that's the new spin on the Pope.  Just like that Conan video yesterday, I've now heard the same talking point 100 time – that, "if you read the original Spanish speech" the Pope isn't really saying there's anything wrong at all with Rich People screwing over the the poor.  It's friggin' amazing.  It's also amazing that people believe the Pope has these inept translators and it was just a mistake that he SEEMED to be coming down on inequality and the failings of Capitalism.  In Spanish, he LOVES the system and wants to keep it – according to Fox, et al. . You have to be a Fox News viewer to believe that BS!  

    Chicago PMI was TERRIBLE!  I doubt it will affect anything as they are going for it regardless but these are way worse.  There's a woman standing right at Rick's side on CNBC to immediately spin it positive.  She's saying, 10 seconds after the report is released:  "If you look closely at the numbers, you'll see they're actually pretty good" – there's no possible way she could have looked at the numbers.  Doesn't matter though, that's the "news".  


  12. Phil

    Those EWJ puts are down close to half. Do you feel it's time to roll up, or just sit tight being they are March puts? Thanks and Happy New Year to you and yours!


  13. From Taxes to Executive Pay, New Rules for 2014

    Corporations don't like the new rules especially the 2015 changes but the fight is already on to keep fairness and disclosure out.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/taxes-executive-pay-rules-2014-014400874.html


  14. Hi Phil you better have an other look at gold!!!!


  15. I guess you are buying gold chains for your wife )8


  16. Not that it has a great effect on my plays with XOM but they surely reaching for the sky. 101.11


  17. SLV / Phil – I have a JAN14 30 Short Put (3.55 entry now 11.00).  No problem taking possession.  As an alternative, would you roll it out to JAN16?  I can DD on the JAN16 21's for 4.25.  Thoughts?


  18. And, would you wait until right before expiration to roll to realize premium burn?


  19. XRT opened strong and now about to go negative.


  20. DBA/Phil – breaking new 3 year low. Is DBA really a good vehicle for Ag? Do still like the Jan16 22/26 BCS here as a new entry (currently $2.05)? CAT has plowed ahead. another put to cover with? Looks like global surplus for corn and wheat coming to us.


  21. TWTR – yet another unstoppable momo miracle; short at your peril.


  22. Below 60 now. falling 6% in a month (and let's not forget last month was down 5% from Oct) :

    "The moderation in December was led by a second month of slippage in New 
    Orders and declines in four of the five components that comprise the Barometer"

    PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT DATA BEHIND THE CURTAIN!!!

    NFLX/Jabob – I think it's going to shift single users from the expensive plan to the cheaper plan without attracting new people but it's most likely a move that will precede a rate increase so they'll net out about the same.  I'd call it a neutral event.  More to the point, long-term, it reflects the problem they're having competing with other services at the low price-point.  Since other services are single-user, NFLX is making the right move to defend their turf but, long-term, it shows you how shallow the moat is around their product and, so far, they are still a one-trick pony.  

    SHLD/8800 – You realize you are piling assumptions on top of assumptions and then looking for how to play them?  The simple play is SHLD is worth more than $40 and that means we can just sell the 2016 $40 puts for $10.70 and buy the $45/70 bull call spread for $8 and that's a net $2.70 credit on the $25 spread and your worst case is owning them for net $37.30.  The upside on cash is 775% and TOS says net margin just $4.75 so the return on margin potential is 600%.   Why mess around with anything else?   You can try to time it but, with a spread like that, I'd just go 1/2 in and see how the next Q goes.  In fact, I'm pretty sure that will be one of the first plays for our new Income Portfolio.

    Wages/StJ:

    W-w-w-w-Wages

    (Lean to live with lower)

    W-w-Wages

    You'll never be a richer man

    W-w-w-w-Wages

    (Lean to live with lower) 

    W-w-Wages

    You'll have to lean to be a poorer man 

    Time may kill me

    But I can't kill time…  

    STP – Wow, you just can't kill these things.  

    Gold popping nicely, up $20 for an incredible win at $32 x 20 = $640 per contract (/YG).  Don't be greedy!!!  

    DVN/Wilsons – Since I think oil will crash back to $85, I'm not too keen on any energy plays at the moment but, so far, so wrong!   DVN is a good one long-term and likely undervalued but I wouldn't rush in.  


  23. TSLA – wonder how many speculators are crossing their fingers, hoping to get ~150 still on Thursday to put off their gain to the next tax year?


  24. MCP – Nice two day move.


  25. Consumer Conf/Phil – what is your take on this report?  Meaningful in any way?
     


  26. A bullish opinion from Douglas Davenport :

    http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-stock-market-rally-overextended-or-underappreciated-57265

    Pardon all the commercial stuff.


    • December State Street Investor Confidence Index: 95.9
    • A 4.7 point jump in investor confidence for December was led by a strong jump in Europe. The mood in the U.S. improved by a percentage point to 90.2 during the month, while new investor concerns in Asia held back sentiment.

    EWJ/DC – It's March and, if we don't get a sell-off, it's good money after bad at this point.  We'll have to sit tight and see what happens into Jan expirations.  

    Fairness/Shadow – It's going to be a good year for lobbyists and lawyers.  

    Gold/Yodi – I'm fairly certain these downside moves are nothing more than manipulated attempts to shake off the longs ahead of a major move up.   As to XOM, just going up with everything else.  

    TSLA not going up – just failed $150. 

    SLV/Jfaw – Well, I'd have a problem taking them when they are down 30% in any case.  They are $11 and that's a fair price with SLV at $19.  2016 $19 puts are $3 and that's net $16, which is almost 1/2 of $30 so, why not roll to 2x of those since it has no net effect on what you'd ultimately have to spend to own SLV – you'd simply have more of it.  That leaves you with a net $1.45 loss and you can sell 1x more for $3 and buy a $16/23 bull call spread for $3 and then you have 1x x ($7-$1.45) of free upside to $23 and your worst case is you own 3x at net $19.50ish.  

    XRT/Jfaw – I can't wait for earnings on that one!  

    SHLD rockin' now.  

    DBA/Scott – It's a great vehicle for Ag but Ag is in the dumps.  Now we have too much wheat, coffee, corn…  I don't understand how there are hungry people in the World when all these crops are trading like they can't give them away.   Long-term, it's a general inflation play.  In India, for example, Ags are up 30% this year – but that's priced in Rupees.  In Japan, food is up 20%, but priced in Yen.  Our premise for DBA and gold and silver is that, eventually, the Dollar will suffer the same fate and DBA will rise, not because of demand, but because it's priced in Dollars.  

    TWTR/Mr M – Back in business, up 7% this morning.  

    TSLA/Scott – $150 should print.  A lot of things will pin today.  Even AAPL is pinning $560.  

    MCP/Albo – Talk about being on plan.  Here's my comments from our entry on them:

    Submitted on 2013/10/28 at 12:56 pm

    MCP/tommy – Just trending along from the big crash two weeks ago. 

    Here's my comment on them from 10/15:

    Them/Jomp – I assume you mean MCP?  I did like them, we added them to the Income Portfolio by shorting the $7 puts for a net $4.70 entry.  I still like them for $4.70 in 2015, I'm just angry at the sloppy management as the short puts should have been a cake-walk.  Still, as noted just above, our ALLOCATION was only to own net $9,400 worth out of our normal $25,000 allocation blocks so it's a 1x position and we're THRILLED to go to 2x at $2.83 for $11,320 and we STILL have $14,000 left to DD and, even if MCP ultimately falls to $1.83 and we lose $4,000 – it's just 16% of the $25K allocation which means the only dumb thing to do with this trade, at this stage, is waste our valuable time worrying about it when it's still 20% over our target 1x entry.  

    They are firmly into a down cycle now and doing their 45M share secondary, which is dilutive by about 1/3 so looks just about right at our $4.70 target (now $5.11). 

    Submitted on 2013/11/04 at 12:07 pm

    MCP/Scott – Very hard to quantify how badly China messes with this market.  Long-term, I like MCP because I think the US starts tariffing rare earth imports but, short-term, they get yanked around by Chinese policy rumors – which change a lot.

    MCP/Scott – As above, I like them long-term, I just wouldn't want to predict what they'll do in the short run.   

    And perfect timing by you 2 weeks ago:

    Albo Submitted on 2013/12/17 at 12:19 pm

    MCP – Might finally be bottoming.  Selling Mar 4 puts for .41-.42  looks to me like a good spec just to take in some cash.

    Consumer Confidence/Scott – As noted yesterday, there's a massive brain-washing campaign pushing consumer and investor confidence.  To some extent, that's a logical way to boost an economy because a Depression is literally caused by people being depressed and unwilling to participate in economic commerce so, of course, it's good to do a little cheer-leading.  Still, like housing, we're talking about minor variations off a historically TERRIBLE number – so you shouldn't read too much into it:

    Consumer confidence is so low that we forget that 200 is SUPER DUPER CONFIDENT and 0 is "not at all confident" with 100 being the middle or the range.  What caused riding confidence in December?  Well, we had more jobs, but that flattened out, and gasoline was down to $2.50 (wholesale) but it's back to $2.80 now and the Fed didn't taper and Congress didn't shut down the Government – Yay!  Let's see how confident people are as 1.3M people stop getting unemployment this month…

    What's very telling is expectations jumped from 71.1 to 79 (more than 10%) but present situation only went from 73.5 to 76.2 (not even 5%).  That's exactly what happens when the media is blowing sunshine up people's asses.  

    Category DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG
    Conference Board 78.1 72.0 72.4 80.2 81.8
    Expectations 79.4 71.1 72.2 84.7 89.0
    Present Situation 76.2 73.5 72.6 73.5 70.9
    Employment ('plentiful' less 'hard to get') -20.3 -22.1 -23.3 -22.2 -22.0
    1 yr inflation expectations 5.2% 5.2% 5.5% 5.3% 5.4%

    Davenport/Albo – Gee, I look at these charts and I see a very narrow-based rally.  This is what I don't like about TA guys – he's basically saying the S&P should go higher because it went higher.  How is that a premise? 


  27. Phil

    Good for lawyers and lobbyists but accountants are to find both ends of the stick stinky.


  28. PS – Notice those inflation expectations for consumers.  If wages are only going up 1-2% and inflation is going up 5% – what the F*CK are they so confident about?  One of the problems with Consumer polls these days is they only reach people who still have homes and phones and the people with phones they reach are the ones that aren't refusing to answer because they are hiding from bill collectors.  So, essentially, you've certainly cut the bottom 20% out of the poll and possibly the bottom 40%, which makes it less meaningful although, as I noted this morning – screw those poor people – they don't have any money anyway, so who cares what they think?   This attitude will serve us well until it doesn't.  

    Accountants/Shadow – No one cares what the numbers guys think anymore.  Too many facts – just show us where to hide the profits….


  29. 3 more points!  


  30. Go SPY! We might see Spy closes to185 today with Djia up almost 100!


  31. Accountants as above can take over the gallows anytime they get the brass to do it. Even the lawyers can't hide what the accountants refuse. They won't go to jail for a small piece or any piece.

    Now we must educate the people to throw the criminals out of Washington.


  32. I think people should really take profit from the big pop of Crox. The stock usually pull back after big pops if you look at the chart. If you believe the market will crash eventually and it should affect Crox. Crox's products aren't really appealing even it does have some cute looking Hello Kitty shoes lol--> http://www.crocs.com/crocs-crocband-hello-kitty-fair-lined-clog/14632,default,pd.html?adid=google_ppc_product_listing_ads_14632&CAWELAID=330004870000002594&cagpspn=pla&gclid=CNOjjO3u2rsCFRRefgodfAkAxA



  33. Did anyone play the CROX 16/17 credit call I entered yesterday?. Just like to mention to look at the typical example of excitement of yesterday the steam is gone out of the balloon  and CROX down again so I hope we can steadily wait for the money.


  34. CROX/Yodi – Great play on that.  Went perfectly.  

    Oil pinning $98.50.  Gold $1,208.  Dollar 80.20 – yawn. 

    S&P having trouble holding it up there but plenty of time for a stick. 


  35. Phil top picture

    Notice the look on the Hedge Fund manager! The poor family look a lot happier along with the rest of the screwed.


  36. Huprich: Wisdom Comes in the Smallest of Packages.

    We previously published Art Hurpichs’ Market Truisms and Axioms back in 2011.  Art is a CMT with Day Hagan Asset Management, and he returns with an updated set of Stock Market Rules to Remember.

    Enjoy.

    ~~~

    As you are reading this, we are in the process of moving our “youngest” to Virginia, as he prepares for life on his own. One of my parting words was “Experience is gained by learning from your own mistakes; wisdom is gained by learning from the mistakes of others…

    Consistent with this and as we move into the last week of 2013 and approach 2014, I am reflecting on the lessons learned over a 30-year time period on Wall Street. While many of the insights shown below are personal experiences, and some insights were gleaned from others, they still bear repeating. I hope you enjoy reading the following insights as much as I did compiling them:

    • Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. It is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student, there is always someone smarter than you!

    • “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”

    • Let volatility work in your favor, not against you.

    • Watch what our “Politicos” do, not say.

    • Markets tend to regress to the mean over time.

    • Emotions can be the enemy of the trader and investor, as fear and greed play an important part of one’s decision making process.

    • Portfolios heavy with underperforming stocks rarely outperform the stock market!

    • Even the best looking chart can fall apart for no apparent reason. Thus, never fall in love with a position but instead remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations. Use volume as a confirming guidepost.

    • When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point.

    • As long as a stock is acting right and the market is “in-gear,” don’t be in a hurry to take a profit on the whole position, scale out instead.

    • Never let a profitable trade turn into a loss and never let an initial trading position turn into a long-term one because it is at a loss.

    • It’s not the stocks that you sell that go higher that matters, it’s the stocks you don’t sell which go lower, that do.

    • Don’t think you can consistently buy at the bottom nor sell at the top. This can rarely be consistently done.

    • Don’t buy a stock simply because it has had a big decline from its high and is now a “better value;” wait for the market to recognize “value” first.

    • Don’t average trading losses, meaning don’t put “good money” after “bad.”

    • Your odds of success improve when you buy stocks when the technical pattern confirms the fundamental opinion.

    • We can’t control the stock market. The very best we can do is to try to understand what the stock market is trying to tell us. As I like to say, “Overweight Statistical Probability. Underweight Emotion!”

    • Understanding mass psychology is just as important as understanding fundamentals and economics.

    • When investing, remain objective. Don’t have a preconceived idea or prejudice. Said another way, “the great names in our business … the Paul Tudor Joneses; the Steve Cohens; the Andy Halls; the George Soros’…all have this same trait: the ability to shift on a dime when the shifting time comes.”

    • Any dead fish can go with the flow. Yet it takes a strong fish to swim against the flow. In other words, what seems “hard” at the time is usually, over time, right.

    • Don’t make investment or trading decisions based on tips. Tips are something you leave for good service.

    • Where there is smoke, there is fire – bad news is usually not a one-time event, more usually follows.

    • To the best of your ability, try to keep your priorities in-line. Don’t let the “greed factor” that Wall Street can generate outweigh other, and just as important, areas of your life. Balance the physical, mental, spiritual, relational, and financial needs of life.

    Finally, I want to offer a heart-felt “thank you” to those who are clients. We value your trust and support. To those who are not clients, we welcome the opportunity to speak with you of how we can be of assistance.

    Art Huprich, CMT
    Chief Market Technician
    Day Hagan Asset Management


  37. My Annual Predictions for the Coming Year, 2014 Edition

    Here are my forecasts for 2014, guaranteed to not be wrong:

    Category Forecast
    Dow Jones Industrials No idea
    S&P500 WTF are you asking me for?
    10 Year Bond Could not fathom a guess
    Emerging Markets Who knows?
    Fed Fund Rates Haven’t a clue
    US Housing Market That’s a really good question
    Inflation Not a clue
    GDP Yes, we will probably have a GDP
    Unemployment Thhhhpppptttt?
    ECB Rates $%^&*!
    Growth in China XXXX
    European Sovereign Debt Hmmm, interesting . . .
    2014 Election outcome HTF should I know?
    Abenomics & Japan Domo Arigato
    Possibility of Recession in 2014 Possibility & Probability are 2 different things
       

     

    That’s the most honest set of predictions you will read this season.

    (This was part of a prior piece I wrote for Bloomberg earlier this month)


  38. Picture/Shadow – Money does not buy happiness.  But it does buy a lot of cool stuff!  8)  


  39. Happiness is a state of mind.


  40. Good advice from Huprich guy Phil… 


  41. in 2014 Bitcoin will go to 6000 and close the year at or above 4000.


  42. Phil, thanks for sharing the post from Art Huprich. Really good!


  43. Well girls and guys before I sign off for better things I wish you all a happy, healthy and blessed New Year.

    Specially our captain of the ship PHIL and his family all the best and thanks for answering all the questions put on to him to test his patience. Thank you Phil,

    Best wishes Yodi 


  44. my wife says she heard retail did TERRIBLE this Xmas. The malls were empty when we went shopping Friday night, the weekend before Xmas. 


  45. Happy, Healthy, Prosperous New Year to everyone !   Phil, thanks for all you do ! !  This is a great site.

    NEW YEARS RESOLUTION :

    Never, never short Momos until the monthly charts breakdown.  Even then, use stops.  And don't average down on losing positions.  Get out !

    Always sell some on initial excitement in a stock.  (As Phil teaches).

    Use hedges.  In addition to raising cash in long term positions, I write ITM calls against positions.  Got to be aware when stocks go ex-divd or else you are likely to get called away.

    Don't overtrade.

    Should have more, but these will help keep me out of trouble.


  46. Govt Rants – 2013 has been a good year for them with much cause to be sure.

    Wishing you all a Happy New Year and hoping* 2014 brings us all a bit more sanity!

    .

    * not a good strategy, I know!


  47. Happy New Year to all. 

    BDC -  I will be watching bitcoin. 


  48. phil, stj, and the board……….

    thanks for all your help, suggestions, and advice……happy and prosperous 14 to all………..


  49. From one of my favorites:

    http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/12/qualcomm-zeroth/

    Qualcomm is now preparing a line of computer chips that mimic the brain. Eventually, the chips could be used to power Siri or Google Now-style digital assistants, control robotic limbs, or pilot self-driving cars and autonomous drones, says Qualcomm director of product management Samir Kumar.

    But don’t get too excited yet. The New York Times reported this week that Qualcomm plans to release a version of the chips in the coming year, and though that’s true, we won’t see any real hardware anytime soon. “We are going to be looking for a very small selection of partners to whom we’d make our hardware architecture available,” Kumar explains. “But it will just be an emulation of the architecture, not the chips themselves.”

    Qualcomm calls the chips, which were first announced back in October, Zeroth, after the Isaac Asimov’s zeroth law of robotics: “A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.”

    The Zeroth chips are based on a new architecture that radically departs from the architectures that have dominated computing for the past few decades. Instead, it mimics the structure of the human brain, which consists of billions of cells called neurons that work in tandem. Kumar explains that although the human brain does its processing much more slowly than digital computers, it’s able to complete certain types of calculations much more quickly and efficiently than a standard computer, because it can do many calculations at once.


  50. Yodi / CROX – missed your suggestion yesterday, paper traded today. Thanks.


  51. CIM halted pending news, seems odd for a REIT to have big news unless they got acquired?


  52. Good Afternoon

    Happy New year to all

    BDC—will keep a close eye on bitcoin—have you taken a look at WPCS—trading platform for bitcoin?

    Phil—what are your thoughts on /RB for the week?—thanks


  53. Wishing everyone an Happy New Year and a healthy & prosperous 2014

    Hey did you guys notice the policeman in the Rialto, Ca. picture is probably wearing a Taser Axon flex:

    http://www.taser.com/products/on-officer-video/axon-flex-on-officer-video

    TASR    our stock of the decade


  54. CIM

    Probably out with their financials, finally.


  55. What a day to release something.  Come on, I want to go drinking already!


  56. Bur/Drinking

    let me guess Booker's Noe:)


  57. Qualcomm

    They are only developing a chip with software. The break will need Nano tube technology that can theatrically compute unlimited transactions at once.


  58. Albo

    I like your list of resolutions. Mine will be concentrated on:

    DON'T OVERTRADE

    HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!


  59. WPCS – seems to be a penny-stock scam to me…. I would be cautious with these guys.


  60. I came into 2013 with one goal: Don't overtrade! 

    And I was successful!

    Also, I had three primary positions coming into Jan 1 2013: NFLX, TSLA and bitcoin. So all I can say about 2013 is: I'm sad to see you go, I hope I have more years like you!


  61. Well done BDC !

    dclark41 – Good plan .


  62. Open brain wave control is going to be available for $324 through Kick starter this spring. You have to stick 10 sensors on your head.

    http://www.techthefuture.com/technology/open-source-brain-computer-interface-for-arduino/


  63. Huprich/ Phil – would love to see your dissection of these rules.  I wonder, do the rules stay the same when one is primarily SELLING premium vs buying?

    There are some hard rules to follow there and remain consistent. One of the (several) key points for me to focus on going forward is:  "wait for the market to recognize “value” first."   Too often I have picked up "value" (much) too early.. I hope, er, fully expect, that over time, ABX will be right, even if it has been against the trend for all of the last two+ years.. 

     

    • Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”

    • Any dead fish can go with the flow. Yet, it takes a strong fish to swim against the flow. In other words, what seems “hard” at the time is usually, over time, right.

    I could stand to work on these too:

    • When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point.

    • Don’t average trading losses, meaning don’t put “good” money after “bad.” Adding to a losing position will lead to ruin. Ask the Nobel Laureates of Long-Term Capital Management.

     

    So, must be better to swim with the dead fish?  And he doesn't say much about rolling, rolling, rolling…


  64. Bitcoin/BDC – We should open up a Bitcoin Options Exchange – that would make a fortune. 

    Huprich/StJ, Invest – Yes, that's a great set.  

    Have a great new year, Yodi – give my best to your wife as well.

    Retail/BDC – The narrative is that on-line saved them but I just don't see how it's possible with on-line only about 10% of the whole (and most of that is AMZN). 

    Thanks Albo, good rules and that's our goal for 2014 – practice following those rules! 

    Burn it/Scott – Worth considering.  

    Well happy new year too those of you cutting out early (most, it seems).  I'm pretty sure the markets are open 'till 4 and I have no plans until 6 so I'm hanging out….

    “Yesterday is gone.  Tomorrow has not yet come.  We have only today.  Let us begin.” — Mother Teresa

    QCOM/StJ – In other words, they are going to make very dumb computers with a lot of potential.  

    CIM/MrM – I don't see any rumors or anything – very strange. 

    Oh no, TGT gift cards improperly activated now.  Something like half a percent have problems. 

    Gasoline/Savi – I'd stay away from big bets                                  .  New Year's is not really a traveling holiday so hard for them to jam it up though $2.78 is a fun place for a bull play on /RB (with tight stops, of course). 

    TASR/Stock – That's why they're my Stock of the Decade!  

    Phil 

    Police/B1 – They are specially made but we don’t even have an auto industry anymore so I guess they’ll have to be calling Toyota.  as to TASR, they are my stock of the DECADE, not the year.  My theory is that there will soon (2-3 years) be lawsuits from people who are shot with a gun when a TASR COULD have been used and that will flip the concerns of the police from being sued with the stun guns to being sued without the stun guns.  Also, they will be making some more advances in conjunction with battery tech that gives them some wireless options that will increase range substantially.  As I often say – can you imagine in Star Trek if they are in a phaser fight and one guy suddenly whips out a 44 magnum and blows some guy’s head "clean off"?  It would seem totally barbaric, right?   That’s the future – you can’t expect game-changing technology not to creep in over time.  In the history of weapons, when has that ever happened?  Arrows were much cheaper than guns yet, not surprisingly, eventually every king springs for the steel, didn’t they? 

    CIM/RJ – That would be interesting.  

    Drinking/Burr – What, you haven't started yet?  

    Brain waves/Shadow – Cool if it works.  Scary though – not too far from putting sensors in a pillow to spy on your dreams….


  65. Smoke/Phil – here is my favorite: ;-)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1A9rYIVHyM


  66. Phil,

    Thx for the earlier guidance on Sears.

    Happy New Year to all


  67. Good Capitalism Cartoon:


  68. Phil

    This has worked for years, the difference is this is open to anyone interested in it from game control to neurologists not limited to what they want to monitor. These guys are giving up fortunes to allow any innovator use it their way. So in a way you better be scared if they progress past needing electrolyte attaching them to skin. Walk in a store and a person approaches and says, The washer you want is over there, just sign this.


  69. Phil / BTC options exchange – that is a very good idea.


  70. anyone want to invest in a BTC options exchange? 


  71. CIM – "Resumes trading after 54 minute halt for Annual Report Release" – Midnighttrader


  72. /rb bounced form 2.78 nicely


  73. BDC - some of my devs trade Bitcoin and have done very well, but I have steered clear mostly because it trades in-person and I haven't had time to figure out the exchanges, how to protect my wallet, etc. If a super-geek like me steers clear you know there's a ton of pent-up demand just waiting for easy automation, and my staff and I regularly brainstorm about BTC start-up ideas, so if you go down that road we'd likely be interested in contributing some effort.


  74. When do the Japanese markets reopen?  


  75. EWJ/Phil,

    I incorrectly entered this EWJ trade (2014 Mar $11 puts) as a STO. Anyway, it's now up 30% and am wondering if you recommend selling today to lock in profits? Thank You.


  76. Just checking in for a quick minute.  I wish everyone a Happy New Year and here's to a profitable 2014!


  77. mocha – I never done much to worry about wallets, so it's kinda weird because I think it is so close (going "mainstream," id est, removing inertia anxiety or whatever) and then it never materializes. Strange in a way that something seems as mismatched in terms of ease-of-development and pent-up demand doesn't necessarily mean the pain will get solved (although coinbase gets a close to this as anyone — buying and selling directly from a checking account is pretty simple). Anyway check out this exchange and tell me what you think. I like options better than futures personally.


  78. Rules/Scott – As you know, I'm not a big fan of absolutes.  These are good guidelines, the word "rules" is drastically overused.  Those are stock guidlines, not options but not that different.  If you want a good, single rule, it would be:  Use common sense!  Unfortunately, that one seems to suppose too much on the part of the user…  ;)  

    You're welcome 8800. 

    My web is cutting in and out and we don't even have the snow-storm yet. 

    Scared/Shadow – Why even go to the store – they should just send you stuff before you even need it, whether you realize it or not.  Oh wait, that's kind of what society is already like.  

    BTC Exchange/BDC – If we can figure out a legal way to do it, it could be fun.   This is exactly the kind of out of the box stuff I'd like to explore with our VC project. 

    Thanks Eric. 

    Gasoline up a penny.  Not too shabby at $420 per penny! 

    Japan/Jrom – They'll be closed the rest of the week.  New Year's is a big deal for them.  

    EWJ/Hex – I would because I think 105 Yen to the Dollar is really pushing things.  There should be at least some snap-back once trading resumes.  The Emperor's birthday was the 23rd and they have very little activity for the entire last week of the year so this whole insane pop from 15,250 to 16,250 could reverse when volume trading resumes.  

    Same to you Rperi! 

    Oil getting weaker, $98.32.  Gold barely holding $1,200 – good exit earlier.  

    Doesn't look good for 1,850.  


  79. Phil/BTC – legal? It's cashless so there aren't any regs [yet]… You buy/sell in BTC only.


  80. Checking out for the day!

    Happy and Healthy New Year to all – Phil, Pharm, Mill, Albo, 1020, BDC, Savi, Jrom, Shadow, Wombat, Invest, Scott, DC, Burrben, Yodi, Jabo and many others.

    I look forward to another great year at PSW!

    Be safe if you are going out tonight.


  81. Here's a flippin rule!  You know the crooks are going to run it into th close and you know it.  Pull the damn trigger!!


  82. Made some nice paper $$ on the /RB trade. haha…


  83. If PAL is sitting on 1,576,000 ounces of Pd worth $1.1B, then …. WTF?? Bad management?


  84. Net worths of all the Presidents – fun to read about them from a financial perspective. 

    Exchange/BDC – You mean we have to get paid in Bitcoins?  Oh no! 

    Have a happy new year, StJ!  Best to you and the family as well.  

    Gasoline/Invest – Nice round trip again too. 

    Oil $98.50 yet again. 

    PAL/BDC – It's like ABX, there's a difference between having reserves and being able to produce them profitably but, like NAK, certainly worth a flyer with a little cash at this price.  


  85. theory – BTC might start selling off for a few hours when the clock strikes midnight. One issue with BTC is the market is always open. Those of us who made 5000% might want to start taking profits on the other side of the tax year and 12:01 AM is tonight is exactly that. 

    Of course, time zones matter, so I'll be selling at 12 AM pacific, which is 3 AM eastern, and if so if the price already dropped some I would wait. Also an interesting entry point, should my stupid theory hold any water.


  86. Phil – haha! Yep! Too bad we didn't do this last year you'd be a billionaire….


  87. Thanks stjean and to all a great new year. Tonight I am opening one maybe more of what is call a big beer, similar to a barley wine only mine is very Americanized and hoppy. It is 12% alcohol so no driving with one. And it might be so awful that it gets dumped, supposed to age 6 months or more so why not try after 1 month. Could give market direction for next year, HA HA! 


  88. Thanks STJ—-Happy New Year to you and your family

    Phil— made a penny on /RB—thanks—see you next year and may there be many more /Rb trades—-Happy New Year to you and your family


  89. And to you as well ST Jean and all! Looking forward to a better 2014!


  90. Stj – And the best to you, too! Cheers!


  91. Phil – thank you for another year..!


  92. Happy New Year Phil, StJean, and ALL of PSW!!!

    My New Years resolution is to no longer write any FUs for 2013..

    Whoops--too late.

    Maybe, I will not feel the need next year to have to ;-)

     

    http://www.liveluvcreate.com/image/just_keep_dreaming-396575.html


  93. PAAS – one measure to see if the market confirms a value is when the weekly 30MA is crossed going up and/or serves as support in a bounce. PAAS has just crossed and closed over in the previous week and is holding there even with the last couple spikes down in /SI.  Good for an initial entry if you just gotta have a silver miner. ;-)


  94. Big Beer/Shadow – no driving, but why not a post here?

    And a happy new year to you all, my friends.


  95. Happy New Year Everyone!

    Jabo, it won't be the same if you stop FUing the MoMos.  But I'm not worried, that'll be a hard habit to break…

     I haven't been trading much, I'm doing a comprehensive trade by trade analysis of the year in review – somebody please walk me off of the ledge… 

    So far the  big lessons are - 

    Don't short MoMos (FU), ever (well I guess while they're still going up)

    Commissions matter if you're keeping your trade size small

    The Only trades that have worked consistently have been short strangles on high volatility stocks and right before earnings (The BWBs are fun but I can't wrap up that analysis because I have three open that might still bite me).

    It would be interesting to hear other people's perspectives and results.


  96. Now indexes falling apart into the close.   And we were so close too! 

    VIX 14.34! 

    Bitcoin/BDC – Good luck.  I think I'll be otherwise occupied.  As to being a Billionaire, by your prediction, we'll do just as well next year.   

    Big beer/Shadow – Enjoy.  I still prefer mine made by professionals.  Been drinking more hard cider lately – lots of brands now.  

    Congrats Savi – Happy New Year to you as well.  

    Happy New Year to everyone – thanks for a great 2013 and looking forward to 2014 – already off to an interesting start.  

    “Quella vita ch'è una cosa bella, non è la vita che si conosce, ma quella che non si conosce; non la vita passata, ma la futura. Giacomo LeopardiOperette Morali

    ie. - That life which is a beautiful thingis not the life that you knowbut what you do not know; not the past lifebut the future

    LOL Jabob – Maybe a few "thank you's" next year.  

    Earnings strangles/Rdn – Definitely more of those next year.


  97. PAAS – looking at an April 12/12 buy write. net entry of $9.63 boosting your dividend to 5.2% (annualized). If another round put to you your net entry is $10.82 and if you get called away you have a 25% return in 4 months.


  98. vix is up hmmm


  99. Looks like it was just one fund dumping, pumps have been turned back on already.  


  100. made some really nice paper $$ on index Futures…… gaining more experience and confidence :)


  101. Matt @ Bloomberg liked to show off his new Crox shoes. He seems like it. Be careful if you decide to short it….


  102. scottmi / PAAS - agreed on that one, I liked how it was bottoming and picked up some at 10.5 a few weeks ago in case of a silver upturn; started accumulating EXK this week on the same premise.


  103. CSX – finishing strong for the year..


  104. Phil Big beer

    I have made 4 beers that outdo anything I have ever bought and one Scotch ale that after perfect decided to add an English malt and made it too malty although that is how they like it across the pond. That is why I didn't make a traditional British Barley Wine. We like our hoppy west coast style. I also make my own bread, it tastes better than 100 ingredients. The kicker is I can't afford the good stuff anymore, last bottle of Scotch was 2 years ago and I doubt I could equal that or wait 10 years. My beer cost about 1/3 of micro brews if you don't count 6 or 7 hours and less than your favorite cheap beer.

    Hell this stuff may be great, only took 25 lbs. of grain and 5 oz. of hops. Check at you high end store the price of a good barley wine. It will shock even you, well over $10 for 1 bottle.


  105. Happy New Year STJ.  Thanks for all your contributions.


  106. Damn! but I am looking forward to 2014!  :-)


  107. Wow, those magnificent bastards are going to hit 1,850!  


  108. Be small and careful with silver, there is a big surplus and is a byproduct of many metals no just gold. Most silver is just an extra bonus not actually mined for. In a downturn it could crash more than it has.


  109. IWM took a cliff dive!


  110. Those pivot points are helpful for Futures trading….


  111. Dress those windows !

    Picked up a little more ANAD & DRWI.  Improving fundamentals, and good Jan Effect candicates IMO


  112. Dear Phil, Pharm ,STJ & board, thanks for your trade/invest ideas and help. This is a great community and I have learned and improved a lot since I joined this website. Wish all have a prosperous, healthy and happy 2014!! :)


  113. Then a classic dead cat bounce. Not impressive.

    Phil Professional brewers cut corners, profit, money money money!


  114. Someone is selling into the S&P pumpers – too bad, they were so close.  

    They slammed the Futures higher right at the bell but I think it was too late to print 1,850.  Yep, looks like 1,848 and change.  Oh well, great try…

    OK guys, have a happy new year.  Football and chicken wings for me tomorrow!


  115. Phil, StJ, Craig, Pharm and all on PSW – a prosperous and healthy New Year to you and your families!  This board is the best – great ideas, discussion and humor!


  116. Happy New Year all , be safe.


  117. BDC / PAL – I agree with Phil that it's a roller coaster like NAK, I bot some in the 2009 crash and got out (luckily) two years later at 500% up.  Did not re-enter on this dip, though, too many other cheap miners out there to pick from.  If you end up doing enough research on PAL to get a solid opinion please post.


  118. Phil

    A great year. 

    Thanks and HNY !

    Strether


  119. Happy Healthy New Year to all!!


  120. Happy New Year everybody from the land of the rising sun! 

    Lots of ups and downs this past year (more downs than I would've liked in an UP UP and AWAY year :/ ), but always tons of fun and super-informative thanks to Phil's great community.   Looking forward to another fun and profitable year this year and for many more years to come, god-willing.


  121. New year is almost upon my time zone..! Here is a compelling poem from Bukowski for your new year resolutions:  All The Way.


  122. Happy and Healthy New Year to all my PSW mates. Here's a few thoughts/things that I've learned over the years that I resolve to be re-committed to in 2014 (mostly things Phil has stressed at one time or another). Hopefully you all enjoy/benefit in some way:

     

    1. Position Sizing: Pay attention to position sizing. It is much more comfortable to adjust a small number of contracts by 1.5 or 2x when positions are sized appropriately.

     

    2. Position Numbers: Reduce the number of positions – but keep a larger watch list. I can watch the investments much more closely if I own fewer, and again its much more relaxing. Positions are not entertainment – the watch list can be.

     

    3. Adjustments: Make fewer adjustments – over-reactions and the resulting trading cost eat into a portfolio.

     

    4. Patience: is the most important attribute for an investor. Give your positions time to play out and theta to do its job.

     

    5. Preparation: Always have an out strategy – positions can fly up as well as down, and as long as you're prepared, there is no need to panic.

     

    6. Observation: One day (or even two day) moves do not count – let things settle down before making major adjustments.

     

    7. Research: Consider your news sources carefully. There isn't enough time in the day to read everything, and much of it is junk or a rehash in any case. Be sure to discriminate by the source so you don't waste your time. Many free sources are worth what you've paid!

     

    8. Participate: We all are privileged to be a part of this board, as there are many savvy investors with good ideas here. I commit to being more present in 2014, and making sure I not only benefit, but provide feedback, ideas and commentary as well.

     

    Here's to a successful 2014!


  123. New Year’s celebrations around the world

    http://www.usatoday.com/media/cinematic/gallery/4260293


  124. Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    Many feel like recession still hasn’t ended

    http://usat.ly/1cmw3wt


  125. Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    What’s ahead for 2014 housing market

    http://usat.ly/Kj88bE


  126. Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    Electric car, motorcycle tax credits end Tuesday

    http://usat.ly/KfWTRh


  127. All, Happy New Year. Updated position trades for the high owner's earnings/FCF to MCap portfolio: http://www.valuesandvaluation.com/Stocks.html      Looking to enter silver tomorrow for that portfolio as well via ETFs.   
    Cheers,

    Brian 


  128. Lots of good end of year thoughts concerning investing. I think the problem is that most of us are looking for absolutes where there are none. I have found that many investing “rules” are situational.

    I felt going into the past year that one of my weakest areas was buying into a position (by selling puts) and not recognizing soon enough when to close the position as it moved against me. As I reviewed my trades from 2013 I found little clarity. Several times I sold puts during the year and promptly bought them back for a loss. I bought them back because they started moving against me by losing a support line I had pegged or by dipping below the 50dma for a couple of days.

    One example to make the point is RIG. On 6/6 with the stock at $50.40 I sold some Jan15 $40 puts for $4.20. I was watching the $50 line for support. Six days later the stock was testing $48 which also looked like support. Over the next 6 days the stock started to bounce back to $50 so I hung in there. The test of $50 failed and the stock started to fall again. “If $48 doesn’t hold this time I will close the position I thought to myself.” On 6/21 when $48 failed I closed the position for $4.70, a $50 loss per put. The stock ended up testing $50 and failing again and then gradually fell below $45 in October.

    I felt pretty good; I had stuck to my plan of getting out. Now the confusion, the stock ran all the way up to $54 over the next 6 weeks and then dropped again back to $48 and now is looking to test $50 again. The stock is currently $49.42, nearly $1.00 below where I took my June 6th position. Those Jan15 $40 puts are now $1.95, $2.75 below where I took my $50 per contract loss. If I would have left the original position alone I would have a very nice profit even though the stock is now $1.00 below where I took the position.  Ah, the power of premium decay!

    I lost sight of why I sold a $40 put with the stock at $50. I sold it to give me cushion and went in thinking a 1x position at $40 – $4.20 I could definitely live with. If I felt confident $50 would hold, why the hell did I sell a $40 put?

    So, for 2014 my message (mainly to myself) is rules are situational and do not lose sight of why you originally took a position. For new members, the most important things I have learned are to scale in and to find out what type of investor you are. Do not decide you are a conservative investor after you short Netflix :)

    ?
    Best wishes and good luck to all in 2014.
     


  129. From Bloomberg, Jan 1, 2014, 7:00:00 PM

    Singapore’s economy shrank for the
    first time in five quarters after its manufacturing and services
    industries weakened, a contraction that may be short-lived as
    the global recovery strengthens.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/19JdFOD
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  130. From Bloomberg, Jan 1, 2014, 4:11:07 PM

    Fiat SpA (F) agreed to buy the remaining stake in Chrysler Group LLC owned by a United Auto Workers retiree health-care trust in a $4.35 billion deal, the last step needed before the Italian and U.S. carmakers can merge.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1eqDGVO
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  131. From Bloomberg, Jan 1, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    About 2.1 million people will have medical coverage today through Obamacare after a late surge in enrollment helped regain ground lost to the botched debut of insurance exchanges created by the U.S. health-care overhaul.

    To read the entire article, go to http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-31/obamacare-rallies-from-botched-debut-as-sign-ups-reach-2-million.html
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  132. From Bloomberg, Dec 31, 2013, 4:12:43 PM

    International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), the world’s largest provider of computing services, hasn’t convinced investors that it can pull out of a sales slump, sending the stock to its first annual decline since the financial crisis in 2008.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1giump1
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  133. From Bloomberg, Dec 31, 2013, 9:28:01 AM

    Scandals surrounding the setting of
    some of the world’s most important financial benchmarks, which
    influence the prices people pay for everything from oil to
    mortgages, have shaken confidence in vital markets.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dRioQN
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  134. From Bloomberg, Dec 31, 2013, 3:44:36 PM

    For all the regulatory crackdowns on Bitcoin in recent weeks, the cryptocurrency’s advocates remain unfailingly optimistic. Bitcoin is the future, they tell us; it heralds a future where private, stateless currencies will dethrone the dollar and other monetary dinosaurs.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/19Zd1Qx
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  135. From Bloomberg, Dec 31, 2013, 1:34:28 PM

    What a year for Japan: Its currency lost 18 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar, the Nikkei index rose 57 percent, and inflation returned for the first time in five years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/19YWsUT
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  136. From Bloomberg, Dec 31, 2013, 11:38:50 AM

    Attention swimmers and Internet surfers: There are now sharks on Twitter. No, this is not Sharknado, nor is it Donald Trump on another of his Twitter attacks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/19YHRZv
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  137. From Bloomberg, Dec 31, 2013, 6:00:01 PM

    As if you didn’t already have enough
    to be nervous about, here’s something creepy to ponder as the
    new year opens.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/JsP0Hq
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8





  138. Move your money from the high street and help to achieve a fairer society
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/31/move-your-money-high-street-fairer-society


  139. Understanding Time: A Long Term Perspective | The Big Picture
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/01/understanding-time-a-long-term-perspective/


  140. The Biggest Apple Stories Of 2013 [Year In Review]
    http://www.cultofmac.com/257364/entire-year-apple-news-one-post/



  141. The Worst People Of 2013 – Liberals Unite
    http://samuel-warde.com/2013/12/worst-people-2013/


  142. The Strange and Interesting History of the GLD ETF | The Big Picture
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/interesting-history-of-gld/


  143. Walgreens to Advance First Month of Prescriptions to Backlogged Obamacare Enrollees
    http://www.mediaite.com/online/walgreens-to-advance-first-month-of-prescriptions-to-backlogged-obamacare-enrollees/


  144. When Risk Is Separated From Gain, The System Is Doomed | Zero Hedge
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-31/when-risk-separated-gain-system-doomed


  145. Chinese stocks did horribly last year. And 2014 doesn’t look much better
    http://qz.com/162643/chinese-stocks-did-horribly-last-year-and-2014-doesnt-look-much-better/


  146. China’s growth and manufacturing output decline as property prices soar
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/china-growth-manufacturing-decline-property


  147. Analyst Predicts GM Will Purchase Tesla This Year—We Have Our Doubts
    http://blog.caranddriver.com/analyst-predicts-gm-will-purchase-tesla-this-year-we-have-our-doubts/



  148. Central banks must show leadership to rejuvenate global economy
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/01/central-banks-leadership-global-economy












  149. More “quality” jobs seen as sign of improving economy – NBC News.com
    http://www.nbcnews.com/business/more-quality-jobs-seen-sign-improving-economy-2D11820934





  150. Google in 2014: Expect new hardware, more retail, and a Google+ explosion
    http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/30/google-in-2014-expect-new-hardware-more-retail-and-a-google-explosion/


  151. Japan is finally defeating deflation. Bad news: Japan is finally defeating deflation
    http://qz.com/162247/good-news-japan-is-finally-defeating-deflation-bad-news-japan-is-finally-defeating-deflation/






  152. New Report Shows That Most Of China’s Gamers Are Still Playing On PCs, Not Mobile
    http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/29/china-gamers-pc/









  153. 6 market surprises for 2014 – Matthew Lynn’s London Eye – MarketWatch
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-market-surprises-for-2014-2013-12-24?link=sfmw


  154. Apple Explains Why Icahn’s Buyback Proposal Should Be Shot Down
    http://allthingsd.com/20131227/apple-explains-why-icahns-buyback-proposal-should-be-shot-down/


  155. Rising household debt is cause for alarm, warns thinktank
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/28/rising-household-debt-cause-for-alarm





  156. China’s economy won’t eclipse America’s until 2028, study says  – NBC News.com
    http://www.nbcnews.com/business/chinas-economy-wont-eclipse-americas-until-2028-study-says-2D11810756



  157. A step-by-step guide to profiting off a 3-cent hike on US postage stamps
    http://qz.com/128329/a-step-by-step-guide-to-profiting-off-the-3-cent-hike-on-us-postage-stamps/


  158. Prada CEO decries sales mode of most U.S. department stores – SFGate
    http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Prada-CEO-decries-sales-mode-of-most-U-S-5092789.php




  159. Tikker Is A Watch That Counts Down To Your Death, Because YOLO
    http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/10/tikker-is-a-watch-that-counts-down-to-your-death-because-yolo/


  160. Achieve Your Goals in 2014 — Here’s Research That Can Help
    http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/01/achieve-your-goals-in-2014-heres-research-that-can-help/


  161. Japanese Population Plunges By Record In 2013 | Zero Hedge
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-01/japanese-population-plunges-record-2013


  162. China’s Bill for Cleaning Air Pollution Mounts; 8 Million Acres of Farmland Too Polluted for Food; State TV Promotes Benefits of Smog
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/01/chinas-bill-for-cleaning-air-pollution.html


  163. LIVE: THOUSANDS OF COMPANIES AROUND THE WORLD REVEAL THE STATE OF BUSINESS
    http://www.businessinsider.com/global-pmi-day-2014-2014-1


  164. JPMorgan Presents “The Era Of Central Bank-Driven Equity Rallies” | Zero Hedge
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-01/jpmorgan-presents-era-central-bank-driven-equity-rallies


  165. 448 New Wind Turbines In Iowa Could Swing The 2016 Presidential Election
    http://www.businessinsider.com/wind-energy-iowa-election-2014-1





  166. Top VCs Predict Where They’ll Invest Their Money In 2014
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2013/12/31/vc-predictions-2014/


  167. CNBC: ‘Anyone Who Owns A Suit Can Come On Television’ | The Onion – America’s Finest News Source
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/cnbc-anyone-who-owns-a-suit-can-come-on-television,6846/


  168. How Will The Economy Improve In 2014 If Almost Everyone Has Less Money To Spend? | Zero Hedge
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-01/how-will-economy-improve-2014-if-almost-everyone-has-less-money-spend


  169. Fukushima ghost towns struggle to recover amid high radiation levels
    http://www.infowars.com/fukushima-ghost-towns-struggle-to-recover-amid-high-radiation-levels/


  170. DEUTSCHE BANK: In 2014, The Risk To Economic Growth Will Be To The Upside
    http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-2014-predictions-2013-12


  171. All 10 Stock Sectors Post Gains in Big Year | The Big Picture
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/01/all-10-stock-sectors-post-gains-in-big-year/





  172. Wall Street’s Brightest Minds Reveal THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS OF THE YEAR
    http://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-charts-2013-12


  173. Why French people love “The Big Bang Theory”
    http://www.salon.com/2014/01/01/why_french_people_love_the_big_bang_theory/




  174. Phil

    Your the expert at post the link of another.

    What I put together is the headline is 5 million will not be covered by Obama care. What I found was 26 states including WY refused Medicade expansion. That turns into 4.7 million fall in the cracks of you aren't covered because your state fucked you over. Only 300,000 wouldn't be cover if the GOP would tell the truth and ass holes didn't bend over to big money insurance that is only for profit!


  175. This Holiday Season Showed Just How Much The Retail Game Has Changed
    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-retail-game-has-changed-2014-1


  176. BTW Phil

    I tell, you decide, but doesn't make 1 difference to me and I guess thast means I shouldn't give a shit!


  177. [image]Good morning and Happy New Year!

    I loved Asimov when I was a kid, Scott.  I've got everything he ever wrote, which was quite a lot!   I like this guy's take on it.  

    The Nikkei is still closed, so Asia volume was dreck.  China was mixed and flattish, India down 1.3%% and Singapore up very slightly but the PMI numbers came out after the close and generally disappointed.  Singapore's GDP went negative – nothing to be happy about over there.  

    Stephen Roach Warns China's Policy Incoherence Has Become Evident.

    Thousands March In Hong Kong In Escalating Battle For Democracy.

     

    Singapore GDP Contracted Last Quarter as Output Eased: Economy. Singapore’s economy shrank for the first time in five quarters after its manufacturing and services industries weakened. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 2.7 percent in the three months to Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it expanded a revised 2.2 percent, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.3 percent contraction.

    • Singapore Home Prices Finally Soften

      Private-home prices in Singapore fell in the fourth quarter, snapping six straight quarters of growth as government interventions crimped real-estate investment.

    Thai political crisis worsensAntigovernment protesters across Southeast Asia took to the streets to mark the New Year, with Thailand lurching further toward a full-blown crisis after election officials Wednesday said demonstrators are close to achieving their goal of preventing fresh polls from going ahead.

    Billions Vanish in Banking Scandal

    Kazakhstan's BTA Bank accused its former chairman of fraud and embezzlement, sparking a complex legal drama that includes private eyes, gendarmes disguised as gardeners, a disputed deportation and billion-dollar court judgments.

    Hyundai-Kia Forecast Slowest Sales Growth in Eight YearsHyundai Motor Co. (005380) and affiliate Kia Motors Corp. (000270), South Korea’s two largest automakers, forecast their weakest sales growth in eight years as competition intensifies and the stronger won hampers exports. Hyundai and Kia’s combined deliveries will increase 4 percent to 7.86 million vehicles in 2014, Chung Mong Koo, chairman of both automakers, told employees during a new year address in Seoul today. That’s the slowest growth since 2006 and falls short of the 8 million units projected based on the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. ?

    Europe is down across the board but our Futures have been jammed even higher.  Oil (/CL) just failed $99 for another nice short entry, gold shot up to $1,220 and the Dollar is 80.31.  Nasdaq also shortable at 3,600 (/NQ) and S&P (/ES) stopped at 1,846.50 and is still there, which would be 1,850 if they open it here but I think, like Europe, our Futures will turn downhill once things get going.  Tight stops above makes for an easy trade!

    Statistics Done Wrong (Alex Reinhart)

    What's Ahead Around the World

    From Japan to South Africa to the Arctic, the WSJ takes a look at the challenges ahead for world leaders in 2014.

    Sectors and Trends to Watch in 2014

    From the health law to the NSA, here are the big sectors and trends to watch in the U.S. this year.

    The 2014 Stock Market: What the Charts Say (Barron’s

    The S&P 500: How High Can It Go? (Barron’s)

    Behavioral Resolutions for Behavioral Investors (Psy-Fi Blog)

    10 financial resolutions you can actually keep (Washington Post)

    Dave Barry’s Review of 2013, the Year of the Zombies (Washington Post)

    55 Tax Cuts About To Expire.

    Interest rates on mortgages for pricey homes have dropped below those on smaller mortgages (WSJ

    Jumbo mortgages now carry cheaper rates than traditional loans (CNN)

    Euro Zone's Weak Recovery Poses Risks

    The euro zone's recovery from crisis looks stuck in low gear, posing risks to its struggling members and weighing on fragile global growth.

    • Bank Borrowing From ECB Jumps

      Borrowing by euro-zone banks from the European Central Bank's regular loan facility hit a 1.5-year high, raising eyebrows even at a time of year when liquidity is often tight.

    New Year Storm to Dump Foot of Snow From NYC to BostonAlmost a foot of snow is forecast for the New York area, potentially snarling travel across the U.S. Northeast following the New Year’s Day holiday. The storm may give way to the coldest temperatures so far this season.

    We don't make any money – but we make it up with VOLUME!  Investors Stay Sour on Samsung

    More than $8 billion came off Samsung Electronics' market value on the year's first day of trading as slowing profit growth at the key mobile division continues to worry investors.

    Samsung Unveils India Program To Lure More Galaxy Users

    Samsung Electronics Co. has launched a buyback and upgrade offer for its Galaxy range of smartphones in India, a move aimed at attracting more consumers who have started to prefer handsets with similar features at lower cost from home-grown companies.

    De Blasio Vows to Shape a Liberal New YorkNew Mayor Outlines Proposals on Taxes, Police Stops, but He Faces Challenges. New Mayor Outlines Proposals on Taxes, Police Stops, but He Faces Challenges.

    208487.strip


  178. Wow, Futures falling back fast off that bogus Tuesday close.  

    We're off to an interesting start already.  RUT crashed from 1,161 to 1,154 already (-0.6%). 

    Oil $98.67.  Nikkei 16,315 – still shortable below the 16,300 line.

    Dollar popping to 80.54.  


  179. Happy new year!  Oil off to a good start, nice call Phil.  Is there an inventory report today?