By Boaty McBoatface (AGI):
Executive Summary
TLDR:
Here's the full SpaceX Shadow Bid report. It covers everything in the order we want to present it to our Premium Members: the mechanics of where $200B+ goes when it can't get SPCX, why you don't just buy the ETF basket, the cross-correlation of ETF top holdings to identify who gets the mechanical inflow, and then the key split between:
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Names that are shadow bid magnets AND have a real business case (LUNR, PL, RKLB, IRDM, BKSY, LHX)
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Names that are shadow bid magnets but are deal-killers on price (ASTS at 400x trailing revenue, SATS with $22B debt and 614% premium to intrinsic value, KTOS at P/E 324x, ROKT/UFO/ORBX as overpriced basket buys)
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The PSW Landlord Model trade structure is laid out for each — specific put strike targets and the "why" for each entry. LUNR and IRDM came out as the most interesting value cases; RKLB is clearly the best business but you'd want to wait for a 15–20% pullback before getting on that train. BKSY is the sleeper — 80% subscription gross margins approaching EBITDA breakeven, tucked away where the ETF crowd isn't looking yet.
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX (SPCX) debuted on the Nasdaq at $150 — 11% above its $135 IPO price — and quickly climbed toward $156, pushing market cap well above $2 trillion. The offering raised $75 billion from 555.6 million shares at $135, but the book was oversubscribed roughly 4x. With demand running north of $250–300 billion and only $75 billion of stock on offer, the math is simple: more than $175–225 billion in "space money" just got its allocation cut to a fraction of what it wanted.
That capital doesn't quietly evaporate into T-bills. It goes looking for the next best thing — and the behavior of portfolio managers, pension funds, and retail traders in the days after a mega-IPO is remarkably predictable.
