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PSW February Trade Review – Part II

We got off to a hell of a start

Part one of our trade review was a very busy week where we went bottom-fishing with 46 trade ideas (mostly bullish) in just one week and only 7 of them were misses for a very nice 84% success rate to start off the month.  

Of course bullish trade ideas are like shooting fish in a barrel when the market goes up and up like this – the smart part is that we had 46 of them and that we went heavily bullish in the last week of January, right when we were bottoming – giving us the best possible prices.  

RUT WEEKLYThat's why these channels are so important to watch, we trade inside of them, playing the odds that the tops and bottoms will hold and we try to catch the turns.  That's why, at the moment, we are BEARISH – until and unless we break over the tops of our channels – at which point we can go back to betting on new highs.  

Most of the trade ideas we review here are from inside the daily PSW Member Chat Room (and you can join here) but some are right in our morning posts, which you can have delivered to your mailbox via our Report Membership, while it's in progress, at 8:30 ALMOST every morning (some mornings I miss the mail-bot deadline).  In fact, today I'll put a couple of **'s next to trade ideas that were in the morning post – just to see how well those work out.  

Feb 3:  Meaningless Monday – Waiting on China

At the moment (7:50 am) our Futures are doing what they usually do in the morning – rising on very low volume.  We went long in Member Chat already (6:44) because you don't have to show us the same move 10 times in a row before we finally get it.  Already we picked up a nice move off the bottom with our /NKD longs up 50 points already ($250 per contract) and the Dow (/YM) up 70 points ($350 per contract), which is enough money to pay for our Egg McMuffins – so we're very happy.

  • **Nikkei (/NKD) Futures long at 14,500, out at 14,550 - up $250 per contract
  • **Dow (/YM) Futures long at 15,600, out at 15,670 - up $350 per contract 
  • **Russell (/TF) Futures short at 1,130, out at 1,110 - up $2,000 per contract 
  • 10 EXC 2016 $30/35 bull call spreads at $1.15 ($1,150), selling 5 $25 puts for $2.30 ($1,150) for net $0, now $500 - up $500 (infinity %)
  • Oil (/CL) Futures short at $97.95, out at $96.50 - up $1,450 per contract
  • BBY 2016 $23/30 bull call spread at $2.12, selling $15 puts for $2 for net 0.12, now $1.58 - up 1,216%
  • Russell (/TF) Futures long at 1,100, now 1,202 - up $10,200 per contract 
  • TNA weekly $66/68.50 bull call spread at $1, expired at $1.55 - up 55%

EWJ puts/490 – Rule #1: ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement.  Rule #2:  When in doubt, sell half.  Rule #3:  If you ignored Rule #1 AND Rule #2, why the Hell are you even bothering to read Rule #3 you greedy friggin' bastard!

INDU WEEKLYFeb 4:  Technical Tuesday – 5% Lines Loom Large

Since we always buy our stocks at 15-20% discounts, we're not afraid to be a little early with our bottom calls.  We don't think the market is heading down 20% – 10% should do it – roughly the 15,000 line on the Dow, 1,665 on the S&P, 3,800 on the Nasdaq, 9,400 on the NYSE and 1,060 on the Russell

That's our worst case and, in between, we will look for support as the weak (+2%) and strong (+4%) bounce lines, which are:  

  • Dow 15,300 (weak) and 15,600 (strong) 
  • S&P 1,700 and 1,735
  • Nasdaq 3,875 and 3,950 
  • NYSE 9,600 and 9,800 
  • Russell 1,080 and 1,100 

In absence of more bad news, we're playing for the bounce this morning (we took a long on Oil(/CL) at $96.50 and we'll go long on the Russell(/TF) over 1,100 – with tight stops.  There's USUALLY a bounce on the way down – it's the strength of the bounce we pay attention to, as well as the volume behind it.

Webcast Replay is HERE.

  • **Oil (/CL) Futures long at $96.50, out at $97.50 - up $1,000 per contract  
  • **Russell (/TF) Futures long at 1,100, out at 1,104 - up $400 per contract 
  • Russell (/TF) Futures short at 1,100, out at 1,090 - up $1,000 per contract
  • Natural Gas (/NG) Futures short at $5.40, out at $5 - up $4,000 per contract

.NDX WEEKLYFeb 5:  Weakening Wednesday – Running into Walls of Worry

As you can see from Dave Fry's NDX chart, the MACD is still stretched, to say the least and the RSI already spells DOOM!!! and it's quite a long way down to the next proper support, 50 points lower at 3,420.  NDX at 3,470 is 86% of the Composite's 4,031 and .84 x 70 just so happens to be 59, so close enough that both indexes are showing us similar support and, with the 5% Rule™, there are no coincidences – so that's going to be our bet!

From Chat (9:39am):  Cramer's in a suit this morning – must be a market-pumping day (as if that wasn't obvious from the string of Bloomberg statements last night.   There's something very wrong with the whole system when they consider a 5% pullback to be "panic" – it's like we're not allowed to go down at all anymore, the way you can NEVER look behind the curtain, lest the illusion would be spoiled and the whole scam would be undone…

  • Oil (/CL) Futures short at $98.50, out at $97.50 - up $1,000 per contract
  • VIX March $13 puts at .10 out at .25 - up 150%
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures long at 3,450, now 3,708 - up $5,160 per contract
  • Russell (/TF) Futures long at 1,095, now 1,202 - up $10,700 per contract 
  • Dow (/YM) Futures long at 15,350, now 16,454 - up $5,520 per contract
  • **QQQ Feb $86 puts at $1.90, out at $2.55 - up 34%
  • **FB short 2016 $35 puts at $2.50, now $2.20 - up 12%
  • **Oil (/CL) Futures short at $97.95, out at $97.50 - up $450 per contract 
  • Oil (/CL) Futures long at $97, out at $98 - up $1,000 per contract

Jobs/Jabob – They are not likely to be good, Jan is layoff month for retail, no Government hiring and we've heard plenty of job cut announcements from the big boys.   If they are up, it will be a big surprise.  Only 150K expected after last month's awful 74K.  ADP just showed in-line 170K but that hasn't been very reliable.  

Feb 6:  Thursday Thrust – Weak is the Word

ECB held rates, as expected but Draghi actually mentioned GRADUALLY raising rates in the future and that was enough to send the Dollar down from 81.40 to 81 (0.5%) in seconds.  That shows us that the Dollar's "strength" is a very fragile thing and it won't take much for our currency to reprice down to Argentina-like levels if the rest of the World begins to tighten without us.  

Meanwile, that's certainly NOT happening at the moment as the BOE and ECB don't see enough inflation to bother them (because we're all exporting it to the 3rd World) and none of us have much of a recovery going, so all the Central Banksters are still saying they will remain "accomodative" for as long as it takes (for the top 1% to get the rest of the money).

  • Russell (/TF) Futures long at 1,100, out at 1,100 – even 
  • Oil (/CL) Futures short at $98.50, out at $97.75 - up $750 per contract
  • GMCR Jan $110/90 bear put spread at $11, still $11 – even 
  • GMCR April $85 puts at $1.05, out at $1.90 - up 80%
  • Natural Gas (/NG) Futures long at $5.10, out at $5.13 - up $300 per contract
  • DIA weekly $155 puts at .47, out at .30 - down 36%
  • FTR at $4.50, selling 2015 $4 calls for .60 and $4.50 puts for .65 for net $3.25/3.88, now $3.52 - on track

Feb 7:  Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working?  

I give up!  Why?  Because the head of JP Morgan's Commodity Division has been INVITED by CTFC Chairman Mark Wetjen to join the Global Markets Committee that sets the rules for Futures trading.  This is not letting the fox guard the hen-house – this is simply serving the fox all the hen he can eat!  Didn't we just fine JPM $17Bn for manipulating the markets and screwing over investors?

It's Friday and China is open again next week so I'm sure they will try to put lipstick on this market pig and close us even or better today.  yesterday was a low-volume fiasco and this morning "THEY" have already dropped the Dollar back below 81 to mask the overall market weakness (hit 80.50 for a minute) by re-pricing the units the market is measured in – nice trick for the CTFC to look into and – oh F*CK – I forgot…

  • Oil Futures (/CL) short at $97.95, out at $97 - up $1,950 per contract 
  • MO at $34.71, selling 2016 $30 puts for $2.80 and $33 calls for $3 for net $28.91/29.46, now $30.66 - on track
  • Dow Futures (/YM) short at 15,600, out at 15,550 - up $250 per contract 
  • S&P Futures (/ES) short at 1,767, out at 1,765 - up $100 per contract 
  • GMCR 2016 $110/135 bull call spread at $7.50, selling March $105 calls for $5.50 for net $2, now $4.70 - up 135%
  • 20 AAPL 2016 $450/600 bull call spreads at $58, selling $450 puts for $44 for net $14 ($28,000), now $23 ($46,000) - up $18,000 (64%)
  • NFLX June $290 puts at $5, out at $3 - down 40%
  • Dow Futures (/YM) short at 15,690, out at 15,700 - down $100 per contract
  • Russell (/TF) Futures short at 1,110, out at 1,110 – even 
  • Oil (/CL) Futures short at $100, out at $97.75 - up $250 per contract
  • QQQ Feb $89 puts at $2.05, expired worthless - down 100%

TSLA/Sage – The usual suspects.  Notice how well it works to go long over the $170 line with a 45-day $10 call.  Now we're over $180 so all the people who didn't listen to me at $160 or $170 get another crack at it!

… for people who have long-term short positions on them, they can be covered by making a momentum play (goes for any MoMo with variations as to levels and prices) of a contract that is about 45 days out (choosing longer over shorter) and, as a rule of thumb, we look to BUY a $10 call to cover a move over any $10 line as a momentum trade on the assumption the Delta is about .50 and it offsets the losses on a short-leap call (which is what we usually have).   

That capped off a hell of a busy first two weeks with this week with 39 trade ideas this week, only 4 of which missed the mark for a very nice 89% winning percentage and that brings us up to 74 wins and 11 losses for the first two weeks of the month – not a bad start at all (87%).  Of course, picking bullish trades in early February was like shooting fish in a barrel and, of course, we're never going to be 100% because we hedge our bets and we never want to be 100% bullish or 100% bearish – even 87% is a bit extreme, but it does happen at the top or the bottom of a trading range (when we get it right, of course).  

As usual, one of the most useful things to do with these trade reviews is to look at those misses and see if they are now ripe to turn into winners.  One of our misses from Part 1, reviewed on 2/27, was 4 CMG Jan $570/610 bull call spreads at $10 ($4,000), selling 5 March $550 puts for $7.50 ($3,750) for net $250 and, as of 2/27, it was -$1,450, down $1,700 (-480%).  

CMG subsequently recovered, the short March calls expired worthless and the Jan spreads are still worth $20 but we went to cash and, in fact, flipped negative on CMG $60 dollars ago, when the spread was $30.  Either way, we're talking net $8,000 at $20 off our original net $250 cash position – up 3,000% on cash out of a potential 6,300% if the spread were fully realized at $610+ but, as I noted, we flipped bearish already so NOW that trade is done.  

That was a trade ideas from 1/30 – AFTER we saw a nice earnings report and we simply extrapolated the move based on FUNDAMENTALS and, as long as you REALLY wanted to own CMG for net $550 in March and, as long as you understood that being down $1,700 on a trade with a $15,750 upside potential wasn't actually a big deal (especially if you REALLY wanted to own CMG long-term), then our -$1,450 on 2/27 was nothing more than a buying opportunity.  

By teaching you the VALUE of a position and teaching you to take the PRICE with a grain of salt by helping you to understand all of the factors that affect your trades – we HOPE to be able to make you a better trader.  But it does take time and effort on your part as well because these are PROFESSIONAL trading techniques and, like any profession, it takes PRACTICE to get good at it!  

 


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  1. zeroxzero

    Russia apparently annexing Crimea through force of arms.

  2. stjeanluc

    Europe didn't go to DST this weekend so there are only 5 hours difference with Europe now!

  3. stjeanluc

    Not so miraculous after all – except for the top 5%! Isn't the way it is all the time anyway:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/03/texas-turns-out-be-not-so-miraculous-after-all

    Oh yes, I know what you’ve heard. And it’s true, as the state’s boosters like to brag, that Texas does not have an income tax. But Texas has sales and property taxes that make its overall burden of taxation on low-wage families much heavier than the national average, while the state also taxes the middle class at rates as high or higher than in California….The top 1 percent in Texas have an effective tax rate of just 3.2 percent. That’s roughly two-fifths the rate that’s borne by the middle class, and just a quarter the rate paid by all those low-wage “takers” at the bottom 20 percent of the family income distribution. This Robin-Hood-in-reverse system gives Texas the fifth-most-regressive tax structure in the nation.

    Middle- and lower-income Texans in effect make up for the taxes the rich don’t pay in Texas by making do with fewer government services, such as by accepting a K-12 public school system that ranks behind forty-one other states, including Alabama, in spending per student.

    Looks progressive to me!

  4. zeroxzero

    By three methods we may learn wisdom: First by reflection, which is noblest.
    Second, by imitation, which is easiest. And third by experience, which is the
    bitterest.” – Confucius       Only one of these methods seems to apply to option trading, unfortunately.

  5. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 8:15:37 PM

    Vietnamese searchers looking for a missing Malaysian Airline Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200 said they found a suspected window or door fragment as efforts to learn the plane’s fate extended to scrutiny of security camera images of two passengers using stolen passports.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dFdR6D
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  6. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 8:07:59 PM

    Japan’s economy expanded less than
    estimated in the fourth quarter on weaker-than-forecast business
    investment and consumer spending, highlighting risks to
    Abenomics as a sales-tax increase looms.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1naAXIw
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  7. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 8:15:33 PM

    Copper futures slid with Asian
    stocks and emerging-market currencies as weaker-than-estimated
    Chinese data stoked concern over the outlook for the world’s
    second-largest economy. U.S. index futures dropped as Brent oil
    fell while gold led a retreat in precious metals.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1fgmV2U
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  8. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 6:00:00 PM

    Pro-Russian forces advanced in
    Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, ignoring Western calls to halt a
    military takeover before the region’s separatist referendum.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1iqkUnT
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  9. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 8, 2014, 3:32:54 AM

    China should allow companies to
    default on their bonds, an external supervisor at the Bank of
    China
    said today, after a solar-cell maker couldn’t repay full
    interest on its debt.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ff8Wpl
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  10. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 12:01:00 PM

    China’s biggest drop in exports
    since 2009 and deepening factory-gate deflation highlight the
    challenges for Premier Li Keqiang in achieving this year’s
    economic-growth target of 7.5 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dFfe5j
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  11. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 8, 2014, 9:05:17 PM

    China’s exports fell the most since
    the global financial crisis, dealing another blow to confidence
    as Communist Party leaders meeting in Beijing assess the risk
    from the nation’s first onshore bond default.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1fRttR1
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  12. zeroxzero

    I wouldn't venture to make recommendations on PSW, given the vast experience of our sensei, but I have a sense, for those who chafe holding all cash, that if China were dragged down [futher than it already is] by U.S. selloff, it might be worth a punt.  FXI, MCHI, EWH (Hong Kong).

  13. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Futures off about half a point but could get worse as Hang Seng dropped 2.86% and Hang Seng 2% with the Nikkei down 1% (15,100) and Germany also very ugly, down 2% with the rest of Europe down a bit more than 1%. 

    China export data slump mainly to blame but we have a missing airplane still, so maybe terrorism (all it takes is a phone call and panic begins) and Russia is still acting up.  Japan's GDP growth was also revised lower, so it would be silly if we weren't reacting, right?

    Oil $101.20, gold $1,331, silver $20.70, copper $3.03, nat gas $4.57 and gasoline $2.94 with the Dollar still very weak at 79.67.

  14. deano

    Klarman warns of impending asset price bubble

    One of the world’s most respected investors has raised the alarm over a looming asset price bubble, calling out “nosebleed valuations” in technology shares like Netflix and Tesla Motors and warning of the potential for a brutal correction across financial markets.

  15. Phil

    Damn, and we're going green already.  This market is unstoppable!  

    Bubble/Deano – No question this is a bubble.  Ignoring news is one of the signs of a bubble.  This is getting crazy though – any news is good news – just another reason to go higher.  

    I think Plosser said something about slow, steady tapering to get things going.  

    Uh-oh:

    • A Japan Airlines (JAPSY) Boeing (BA) 787 flying to San Francisco from Tokyo has made an emergency landing at Honolulu Airport following a fall in the oil pressure in the right engine.
    • The glitch is the latest in a series of problems to affect the 787 and comes after Boeing said on Friday that it needs to inspect 42 yet-to-be-delivered aircraft for possible hairline cracks in the wings due to a manufacturing problem.
    • Meanwhile, search crews have still failed to find any signs of the Malaysia Airlines 777 thatdisappeared over the weekend whilst flying over Vietnamese airspace.
  16. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 8:01:00 PM

    Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will face his toughest public testimony to date as he
    seeks to defend the integrity of an institution that’s become
    embroiled in the currency-manipulation scandal.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1irnlXr
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  17. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 10, 2014, 5:00:00 AM

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange
    Commission is investigating whether currency traders at the
    world’s biggest banks distorted prices for options and exchange-traded funds by rigging benchmark foreign-exchange rates,
    according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1cpqKDj
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  18. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 8, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Bill Gross, musing on his legacy in
    an April investment outlook, contended that the real test of his
    greatness as an investor would be his ability to adapt to a new
    era of shrinking bond market returns.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kDCl4J
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  19. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 10, 2014, 4:36:03 AM

    German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and his European Union counterparts are under pressure
    to get a bank-crisis law on the books after European Central
    Bank President Mario Draghi spelled out the consequences of
    failure.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1cppXSW
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  20. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 10, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Venezuela’s government plans to
    start a new foreign exchange market today after reopening a
    credit line from China, as it looks to ease a dollar shortage
    that has fueled more than three weeks of protests.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1gd02NH
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  21. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 10, 2014, 2:03:15 AM

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is
    sticking with its recommendation to buy Chinese stocks, the
    biggest losers worldwide this year, after valuations fell to the
    lowest level in a decade versus global peers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1naFYRt
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  22. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 7, 2014, 6:04:13 AM

    Over two decades, Carson Yeung says
    he transformed himself from an apprentice hairdresser in Hong
    Kong into a successful stock picker worth millions of dollars.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1cxUVbO
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  23. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 7, 2014, 12:14:40 AM

    The pioneer of political opinion
    polls in India says he has good reason not to trust them: he has
    been asked to rig them on more than 10 occasions over the past
    two decades in return for envelopes of cash.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nj6QeF
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  24. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 9:05:24 PM

    The Bank of Japan’s failure to spur
    demand for its cheap loans is forcing it to buy more treasury
    bills rather than make more-productive asset purchases.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1gcTSNy
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  25. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 7:00:00 AM

    The amount of debt globally has
    soared more than 40 percent to $100 trillion since the first
    signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull
    their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of
    record low interest rates, according to the Bank for
    International Settlements
    .

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dEAuYK
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  26. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 6:35:29 AM

    Egypt’s economy is likely to grow
    less than the government’s target of at least 3 percent because
    of political turmoil, Planning and International Cooperation
    Minister Ashraf El-Arabi said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dFexJ9
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  27. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Mar 9, 2014, 6:00:33 PM

    Economics aims to figure out what makes people better off and how we can have more of it. Given the number of excellent minds dedicated to this end, it’s surprising how little of what they produce is actually of use to policy makers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1hYBSXi
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  28. bdonnelly713

    All,

     

    New positions posted for Friday. Small stakes in VRX and ONVO were opened as well as a new hedge in SDS. Trades 2014125 – 2014127

    http://www.valuesandvaluation.com/Stocks.html

     

     

    Major market models remain on buy but the intermediate inputs are still indicating caution is warranted. 

     

    Cheers,

    BD

  29. wombat

    Phil // Crimea

    obviously intimidation election. No NATO presence. Obama is golfing. 

    GLD ?

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