Courtesy of Mish.
Immediately after the 4-player Ukraine accord announcement yesterday (See Ukraine Talks End in Accord; What About the Key Missing Player?) I commented …
Lots of Questions
This accord raises more questions than answers.
- Did anyone consult the separatists?
- Who is going to enforce the agreement?
- Is there a single voice, or even a small group of voices who can speak for the separatists?
If the separatists are acting on their own, then unless Russia or someone else can convince the separatists to lay down their arms, the accord may break down.
Separatists are the key players in this crisis, but it does not appear they were even invited to the table.
Ukraine Accord Broken Already
Here we are, one day later and the Financial Times reports Ukraine: The ‘War Without War’ that Rumbles On
In Geneva on Thursday the US, the EU, Russia and Ukraine agreed steps aimed at reducing the tensions. But that agreement is already in danger of unravelling as separatists in the big eastern city of Donetsk refuse to evacuate their headquarters. Any violence risks creating the pretext for a Russian invasion.
While the government in Kiev and much of the west stresses its desire to integrate with Europe, the east remains firmly anchored to Russia by language, culture and history. Many companies are also oriented eastward, above all those working in its Soviet-era agricultural, metallurgy, pipe-making and defence industries – all of strategic importance to Moscow.
“The Russian market is very important, especially for the older, heritage economy,” says Gennadiy Chyzhykov, president of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce, who is from Donetsk, now capital of the self-styled “republic” where activists claim to lead the anti-Kiev protests. “We export mainly raw materials and semi-finished goods to Europe, but finished goods, including sweets, to Russia. They share our tastes.”
Sentiment
Read that last paragraph above closely. Most of the people in Eastern Ukraine lean towards Russia.
Banning Russian broadcasts, or even forceful military action cannot change that sentiment. Indeed, it can only strengthen it.
Geneva Agreement Does Little to Counter Russian Military Threat…
