Courtesy of Doug Short.
This week will see a hurricane of economic data — GDP, Personal Consumption and Outlays, the July Employment Report, a couple of key Consumer Confidence metrics and of course Wednesday’s FOMC Statement. Today we got the quiet before the potential storm (to extend the weather metaphor). The S&P 500 sold off to is -0.56% intraday low in the first 45 minutes of trading. It then reverse course to its 0.16% early afternoon high before drifting to its 0.03% closing gain. Today’s price range was at the 49th percentile of the 143 market days this year. Essentially the index went nowhere on average price volatility.
The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.50%, up 2 bps from the previous close. It is now 6 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.
Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.06% year-to-date.
Volume on the SPY ETF was at summer doldrum levels, 14% below its 50-day moving average.
For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.
