Courtesy of Mish.
New Fearmongering Tactics
In the waning moments UK prime Minister David Cameron warns Scots “Leave and You Go Forever“.
Actually, the warning probably should be “Stay and you stay forever” because the UK will never allow such a vote again.
Regardless, no country should want to be under the thumb of another.
Polls Diverge
The vote for Scottish independence is now too close to call. In a Scottish Poll Roundup one new poll over the weekend shows the “Yes” vote with a substantial 54-46 lead, but most polls show the “No” vote with a tiny lead.
- ICM (online) 54%
- Panelbase (online) 49%
- ICM (phone) 49%
- TNS (face to face) 49%
- YouGov (online) 48%
- Opinium (online) 47%
- Survation (online) 47%
- Survation (phone) 46%
If we ignore undecided voters, then judging from the last US presidential election when Nate Silver proved preponderance and clustering more important than margins-of-error which purportedly showed the election “too close to call”, one might assume the “No” vote will carry the day.
I sided with Silver and called for an easy electoral college blowout, and that is precisely what happened.
But this is Scotland not the US, the undecided voters are many, and this is an overall vote not a state-by-state electoral college total.
Which way the undecideds break will determine the outcome.
Stiglitz vs. Krugman on Scotland…
