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Thursday, April 25, 2024

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Pre-FOMC Rally on Statement Wording Speculation

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Today’s market focus was tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC statement and Chair Yellen’s press conference. The S&P 500 opened lower but quickly rose into the shallow green. Shortly after 11 AM, the index launched a strong rally to its 0.91% early-afternoon intraday high. The rise was apparently triggered by WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath’s comments during a live webcast.

Hilsenrath, generally regarded as “in the know on Fed” thinking, expects the FOMC’s reference to a “considerable time” before a rate hike to remain in September statement, although he expects some qualification verbiage along the lines suggested by Yellen at Jackson Hole. The markets gave his views a “two thumbs up.” The Dow hit a record intraday high, and the S&P 500 lifted itself above the 2000 benchmark. Some afternoon selling dropped the Dow 0.04% below its record close in mid-July, and the S&P 500 slipped back below the 2000 level to close at 1998.98.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Today’s price action came on average volume.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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