Financial Markets and Economy
Here's your complete preview of this week's big market-moving events (Business Insider)
It's the first week of the last month of 2015, and that means there's a lot of economic data on deck.
First, we'll get finalized numbers on Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday sales. Preliminary estimates from RetailNext and ShopperTrak show sales were down in the low single-digits.
Think of Debt as Pollution (Bloomberg View)
There are so many works on the global financial crisis by now that it's getting harder to justify any more, but Adair Turner's new book, "Between Debt and the Devil," is definitely worth your time. (Bloomberg View recently published two excerpts.)
Last week I praised John Kay's "Other People's Money." Turner takes a different approach, and the two complement each other very well. Kay, in effect, stands entirely outside the current system — asking the reader to think about the basic purposes of finance and what kind of arrangements might best meet those demands. Turner's method is more straightforward: He describes the current system and what's wrong with it.
Commodity prices and exchange rates (Econ Browser)
The dramatic decline in the prices of a number of commodities over the last 16 months must have a common factor. One variable that seems to be quite important is the exchange rate.
Turkey's Main Challenge Is 'Erdoganomics' (Bloomberg View)
On the day Turkey shot down a Russian jet this week, it also formed a new government. That went little noticed, given the frisson of a NATO-Russia clash, but it may be as important as any economic sanctions Russia might impose in retaliation for its loss.
Consulting & The Smart Money Herd Mentality (A Wealth of Common Sense)
Institutional investors are often referred to as the ‘smart money’ or ‘sophisticated investors.’ For some funds this is true, but many of these large pools of capital make the same exact mistakes as mom and pop retail investors. It’s just that the reasons are different.
Clicks Defeat Bricks During U.S. Retailers' Black Friday Weekend (Bloomberg)
Online shoppers outnumbered their brick-and-mortar counterparts during U.S. retailers’ pivotal Black Friday weekend, underscoring the challenges facing American malls this holiday season.
More than 103 million people shopped online over the four-day weekend, which started Thursday on Thanksgiving, according to an annual survey commissioned by the National Retail Federation. That compares with fewer than 102 million who ventured into traditional stores, the trade group said.
Shanghai Gold Exchange Has 54 Tonnes of Gold Withdrawn in the Latest Week (Jesse's Cafe Americain)
There were 54 tonnes of gold bullion taken off the Shanghai Gold Exchange into mainland China in the latest week.
One Stock That’s Begging For Higher Rates (The Reformed Broker)
I think this CME chart I made speaks for itself, but I’ll have some comments to add on the fundamental drivers once you’ve digested the technicals.
Industrial Production Ruined Bread (Bloomberg View)
Kick back, pour yourself some strong joe, and settle in for our longer form weekend reads.
Student Debt in America: Lend With a Smile, Collect With a Fist (NY Times)
The American student loan crisis is often seen as a problem of profligacy and predation. Wasteful colleges raise tuition every year, we are told, even as middle-class wages stagnate and unscrupulous for-profit colleges bilk the unwary. The result is mounting unmanageable debt.
ECB Failure Ruins 'Short of a Lifetime' (Bloomberg View)
In April, Bill Gross said betting on a decline in the value of German government debt offered the trade of a "lifetime." Thus far, the strategy has failed to deliver anything like the stellar profits anticipated by Gross. But that says less about the market acumen of the world's best-known bond investor than it does about quantitative easing's failure to extinguish the threat of deflation in the euro zone.
Did the Yuan Really Pass the IMF Currency Test? You'll Know Soon (Bloomberg)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and some two dozen officials on the fund’s executive board will gather Monday at headquarters in Washington for one of the most-anticipated decisions outside of actually approving loans for nations in crisis.
Al Gore, Felix Salmon, ‘Sustainability,’ and Aspiration (The Atlantic)
On the eve of the Paris climate talks, let’s get back to “sustainable capitalism.”
After my piece about Al Gore’s sustainability-minded, and so-far very profitable, Generation Investment firm came out last month, Felix Salmon of Fusion wrote an email on all the reasons he was skeptical of the company, its claims, its founders, the story, and everything else. You can see it at the bottom of this Thread, or here.
A critical shift is taking place in China ? and it could have brutal consequences (Business Insider)
China is beginning to "talk the walk."
That is according to Wei Yao, a strategist at Societe Generale, who published a note on Friday on the country's need for capacity consolidation.
The $30 Oil Cliff Threatening Russia's Economy (Bloomberg)
For Russia, $30 is the number to watch.
Politics
Hillary Clinton Calls for $275 Billion in Federal Infrastructure Spending (Bloomberg View)
Hillary Clinton is calling for a $275 billion boost in federal infrastructure spending over five years and the creation of an infrastructure bank, arguing that the measures will help create jobs while modernizing the nation’s ailing roads and bridges.
New York Times calls Donald Trump's latest criticisms 'outrageous' (CNN)
In its most extensive statement yet, the New York Times is refuting Donald Trump's claims against veteran investigative reporter Serge Kovaleski by saying "the facts speak for themselves."
Trump says the Times should apologize to him, but an apology is not in the cards.
Syria Will Be on the Agenda for Leaders at Climate Talks (Bloomberg)
Paris will become the nexus of diplomacy on Syria this week as leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin use the opportunity of United Nations climate talks to discuss the regional conflict that has become the global epicenter of Islamic State terrorism and the refugee crisis.
Republicans Diverge on Links Between Abortion Rhetoric, Colorado Shooting (Bloomberg View)
Republican presidential candidates were split on Sunday about whether anti-abortion rhetoric had a hand in Friday's shooting rampage at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado, and whether anything needed to be done to change the tone of political discourse.
Technology
Amazon Shows Off New Delivery Drones With 'Top Gear's' Clarkson (Popular Science)
As far-fetched as it sounds, the era of drones delivering packages is about to begin, according to Amazon. Earlier today, the company released a new ad on YouTube showing controversial British TV host Jeremy Clarkson praising the benefits of Amazon's still in-development drone delivery service, Amazon Prime Air, along with an all new "hybrid" drone design that can switch between vertical and horizontal flight.
Health and Life Sciences
Animal Venom Database Could Be Boon To Drug Development (Forbes)
The bite of a poisonous snake, scorpion or other venomous creature could very well kill you, but it also might be able to heal certain medical conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart failure.
That’s the idea behind VenomKB, short for Venom Knowledge Base, the first online database that aims to catalog all the known animal toxins and their physiological effects on humans.
The next big investment theme could be a cancer treatment? (Business Insider)
One of the most promising long-term investment opportunities could be a cancer treatment known as immunotherapy, according to UBS's global chief investment officer.
"This emerging science offers the potential for attractive returns," said Mark Haefele, who oversees the investment policy and strategy for $2 trillion.
Life on the Home Planet
Geologists Confirm Mantle Plumes Generate Volcanic Hotspots (Scientific American)
Dozens of exceptionally active volcanic sites dot the earth. But geologists have debated the cause of these so-called hotspots for decades. Do they originate in mantle plumes—vast upwellings of superhot rock from the earth's core— or in shallower reservoirs of heat in the upper mantle? Seismologists at the University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory recently took an unprecedented look at what lies below the earth's surface to depths of thousands of kilometers….
