Courtesy of Mish.
On January 18, I sent the article below (starting with the title Nate Silver Off the Mark on Donald Trump Nomination Odds) to the New York Times as an Op-Ed.
They did not publish it.
It's hard enough getting something timely to major new organizations, and when you do, you have to sit and wait days for no response. The New York times has the best turnaround of the bunch, three days, so I could have used this earlier.
This would have been more timely on the 18th and even more timely when I first started writing, but here it is now. It's still relevant.
Nate Silver Off the Mark on Donald Trump Nomination Odds
I am a big fan of Nate Silver. His calling of the last two elections was nothing short of brilliant. However, I just cannot accept Silver's current assessment of Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination.
In footnotes to his January 8 article Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise Silver expressed belief that "Trump’s chances are about half of what betting markets say they are. I think they’re about half that – 12 or 13 percent."
Trump Odds According to Nate Silver
Historical Precedents
Given Trump's commanding lead in the polls, one might instinctively think Silver is crazy. But Silver cites historical precedents:
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