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Friday, May 10, 2024

Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Declined Modestly, but Expectations Improved

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey business conditions indicator measures activity in the following states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

KANSAS CITY, Mo. –The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the April Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined modestly.

“Factories reported a modest decline in activity in April, but expectations for future activity increased to their highest reading of the year,” said Wilkerson. [Full release here]

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes jumped in April to 10 from last month’s -2.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Let’s compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

Here is the same chart including the average of the five.

Here are the remaining four monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Fifth District Manufacturing Survey (Richmond)

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Regional Fed Overview

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