Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.
On global basis, equity markets have essentially discounted last week’s Brexit vote. Today’s rally, to one decimal place, put the Nikkei up 1.6%, the DAX 1.8%, the CAC 2.6% and the FTSE 3.6%. Our benchmark S&P 500 rose 1.7% today, just a tad off its 1.82% intraday high shortly before the close. The index is now back in the green year-to-date, up 1.31%.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Treasuries, however, have not shown the same reversal. Here is a a 15-minute overlay of the 500 and the CBOE 10-year Treasury yield index over the last eight sessions. Note that the two were moving in tandem prior to the Brexit vote and during the two day selloff following the vote. But during the last two sessions, equities have rallied while the 10-year yield has mostly trended sideways.
Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Note that the trading volume has been substantially higher on the Brexit selloff than on the bounce.
A Perspective on Drawdowns
Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.
Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.
