Courtesy of Mish.
Following yesterday’s existing home sales report, the Atlanta Fed GDP Now Modelforecast for third quarter GDP fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%.
We will not see the BEA’s first estimate for third quarter GDP until October 28. The second estimate for second quarter GDP comes out tomorrow. Based on revisions to June data, I expect a lower estimate to second quarter GDP.
Skipping ahead, this is what the Atlanta Fed model projects for third quarter.
Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — August 25, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.4 percent on August 25, down from 3.6 percent on August 16. After yesterday’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, the forecast for third-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 1.0 percent to –2.6 percent.
I’ll Take the Under
For a look at the existing home sales report that took 0.2 percentage points off the forecast, please see Existing Home Sales Sink 3.2% in July, Down 1.6% From Year Ago
