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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Trump Error Day 46 – Buyer’s Remorse?

Wow, things are getting crazy(er).

Over the weekend, President Trump accused former President Obama of tapping his phones during the election – a claim the FBI says is untrue (contradicting a sitting President) while Trump twitters away on an epic weekend rant covering the "cover up" as well as dissing Arnold Schwarzenegger and trying to remember "Who was it that secretly said to Russian President 'Tell Vladimir that after the election I'll have more flexibility?"  Yes, he tweeted that.  Geeze, Donald, use you inside voice when discussing possible acts of treason!  

Yes, we are discussing politics again because the President of the United States is making public accusations not just of Obama but the Intelligence Community of committing a Constitutional Crime and he's calling for Congress to investigate the matter – even though there is not one shred of evidence that such a thing ever happened.  These are the kind of things that should be kept on the QT in Washington – even if they are true.  

By not keeping our dirty laundry secret (if there is any dirty laundry and, if not, then the President is a paranoid maniac – so we can't win) we make America appear weak and tumultuous and that causes MASSIVE damage on the International Stage.  What do we do when we see countries in political turmoil?  We pull our investments, we stop lending them money, we hesitate to make deals with them until things calm down.  Bond rates soar, credit ratings crash and governments can topple over matters like these and you have how much of your money invested in America?  

In these days of evil Presidents

Working for the clampdown

But lately one or two has fully paid their due

For working for the clampdown

Kick over the wall 'cause government's to fall

How can you refuse it?

Let fury have the hour, anger can be power

THAT is why it matters!  

The Dollar was already taking a hit off the Russia scandal (remember that – that was last week's scandal, we've moved on now) and many say Trump is simply tweeting to distract people from that issue, which is why it's strange that yesterday he decided to bring up Russia again.  He can't help himself I guess – he's kind of like that old Uncle you have who keeps grumbling about whatever's bothering him, no matter what social situation he's in.  

Anyway, moving on.  We'll see which way the markets go this week now that there's a 120% chance that the Fed will raise rates at next Wednesday's meeting.  We are still getting plenty of earnings reports though generally from smaller companies at this point in the cycle (only 30 days before Q2 earnings begin!).  That's why we're never worried, because there's always something fun we can trade – in any kind of market:

The last Fed speaker before the meeting will be Neel Kashkari this afternoon at 3pm so data will begin to matter again this week and we have Factory Orders and Consumer Spending this morning, with Economic Confidence and Consumer Credit tomorrow.  Wednesday it's Productivity, Thursday Consumer Confidence and the Services Survey and Friday is the delayed Non-Farm Payroll Report and the Rig Count, which took oil off the highs on Friday. 

We're still waiting and seeing but while we wait and see we're having fun trading.  Friday's Natural Gas (/NG) trade was a huge winner for our PSW Report Readers as was our long play on Silver (/SI) and  our short positions on the Dow (/YM) and Nasdaq (/NQ) and our TZA hedge is right on track towards it's $19,000 (633%) potential cash gain.

As we have plenty of hedges and we're great at shorting the Futures, we decided to put up another Watch List (Member Only) over the weekend with 21 bullish trade ideas we can play with in Q2.  There's plenty of stocks out there – not all of them are overbought – yet.

Let's be careful out there!  

 

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