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Tumblin’ Tuesday – Weak Dollar Not Enough to Save the Market

Our man, Mnuchin, is on the case!  

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, U.S. President Donald Trump said a “too strong” dollar made it difficult to compete with other countries in trade, pushing the currency lower.  Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told the Financial Times he agreed with Trump and that the Dollar's strength was hurting exports, sparking concerns are that the United States could take a tough trade stance against Japan, which has been wary of Trump's complaints that it and other countries have artificially weakened their currencies.

In even worse news for the markets, Mnuchin said it was now unlikely that tax reforms will come in time to have an impact on 2017:  “It started as [an] aggressive timeline,” the former Goldman Sachs banker said in an interview with the Financial Times. “It is fair to say it is probably delayed a bit because of the healthcare.”    

Image result for trump dollarMr Mnuchin rebuffed suggestions that Washington may be seeking to depreciate the currency via verbal interventions following remarks from Mr Trump last week. “As the world’s currency, the primary reserve currency, I think that over long periods of time the strength of the dollar is a good thing,” said Mr Mnuchin. “It’s a function of the confidence and the strength of the US economy.”

In other words, as I said on Thursday, it's yet another issue on which the Administration flips or flops on – depending on the day.  If you don't think this sort of thing affects the markets – just ask Mnuchin's bosses at Goldman Sachs, who just had disappointing earnings (told you so!), who said the atmosphere of policy uncertainty caused the 0.16 (3%) earnings miss and $500M (5%) revenues miss.  

Goldman Sachs (GS) is a Dow component and is down $6.50 pre-market and that should cost the Dow about 50 points at the open.  This will be good for the SKF trade we talked about yesterday.  Speaking of things we talked about:  In last week's Live Trading Webinar (Wed 12th, 1pm), we called for a short on oil right at the open (2:03) and we expected a drop back to $52.50 for a $1,000 per contract gain and, this morning, we're past $1,000 per contract at $52.25 ($1,250 per contract to be exact).

If not for the weak Dollar, oil would likely be heading lower than $52.50 but it's tricky to play it lower now.  You can play the $52.50 line with tight stops above and, if the Dollar stops falling, this should be a good one as there are just 3 trading days until the contract expires and the NYMEX traders are still stuck with 125M barrels worth of fake, Fake, FAKE orders that they have to get rid of by Thursday.  

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
May'17 52.75 52.76 52.14 52.29 08:17
Apr 18

 


-
-0.36 46428 52.65 125946 Call Put
Jun'17 53.19 53.22 52.59 52.75 08:17
Apr 18

 


-
-0.36 107432 53.11 569486 Call Put
Jul'17 53.52 53.59 52.95 53.12 08:17
Apr 18

 


-
-0.35 8579 53.47 213657 Call Put
Aug'17 53.81 53.82 53.23 53.42 08:17
Apr 18

 


-
-0.32 3821 53.74 98475 Call Put
Sep'17 54.03 54.03 53.46 53.61 08:17
Apr 18

 


-
-0.35 4681 53.96 189366 Call Put
Oct'17 54.20 54.20 53.64 53.78 08:17
Apr 18

 


-
-0.35 1060 54.13 71066 Call Put

On Wednesday, there were 287,000 open contracts for May and 468,000 in June and now there are 161,000 less barrels in May but 102,000 more in June and the other 59,000 barrels have generally been rolled to longer months so, as usual, it's nothing more than a shell game where the NYMEX traders pretend there is far more demand for oil than really exists.  That's what we take advantage of – it's such an obvious scam we can play along at home and the millions our Members make are inconsequential to the Billions these "traders" are screwing the American people out of at the pumps – so the scam continues

This is our last month being short on oil (and we already have long July spreads on USO) as we turn bullish into the summer driving season, probably touching $60 at some point – after which we look forward to shorting again in the fall – plenty of fun ahead!  

Speaking of fun ahead.  If you want to play the President, he'll be stopping buy at Snap-On (SNA) today and Presidential visits tend to lead to gains as the Trump sheeple will buy anything he's selling.  SNA is actually a nice little company and tools are a good infrastructure play so we can play them for a quick bump with the April $160 ($5.30)/165 ($2.90) bull call spread at $2.40, which will pay $5 above $165 on Friday for a $2.60 (108%) profit in 4 days if all goes well.

Our faith in GNC Holdings (GNC) finally paid off as they reported earning 0.37 per $7.24 share in a single quarter, blowing away Wall Street expectations but right in-line with ours.  We liked the turnaround story and, in last week's Portfolio Review, we decided to double down on our position into earnings.  

This is options expiration week so we had a lot of work to do (relatively) in this period but we're very well-positioned for a market correction of 5-10%, which we expect in the near future.  Tomorrow we will do another Live Trading Webinar (1pm, EST) but this one is Members Only – there will be another free one in May.  

You might want to go back to that Webinar and check those hedges as it looks like we're going to give up all of yesterday's BS gains into the open (as well as those 50 dmas) but, as I said – we're well-covered for the correction.

Be careful out there! 

 


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  1. Wow, Monday might really be meaningless. Of course, yesterday was Easter Monday so less participation. And maybe the rally was fueled by the fact that we woke up on Monday in our bedrooms, not in a nuclear fallout shelter. 


  2. Total coincidence I am sure:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/ivanka-trump-trademarks-china

    On April 6, Ivanka Trump’s company won provisional approval from the Chinese government for three new trademarks, giving it monopoly rights to sell Ivanka brand jewelry, bags and spa services in the world’s second-largest economy. That night, the first daughter and her husband, Jared Kushner, sat next to the president of China and his wife for a steak and Dover sole dinner at Mar-a-Lago.


  3. Create your own annuity:

    http://tonyisola.com/2017/04/how-to-create-your-own-variable-annuity/

    Here is my response to the so-called guarantees of the insurers. If, over a 20-year period, a portfolio constructed of about 10,000 individual stocks and bonds is devastated, what makes you so sure the large insurer who guaranteed the annuity payments will even be solvent?

    That is something to think about.

    In the end, it is wise to determine your ultimate goal– guaranteed income, and then work on a strategy that will hopefully leave more money in your pocket than in a salesperson’s wallet. In the words of Warren Buffet’s right-hand man, Charlie Munger, “Think forwards and backwards-invert, always invert.”


  4. GNC – GNC Holdings On Call continues to expect positive comps in the back half of the year, driven by improving online sales trends . 


  5. Good reading on tax day or how the supposed makers are in fact takers:

    http://ritholtz.com/2017/04/walmart-tax-day-taxpayers-subsidize-americas-biggest-employer-richest-family/


  6. Good Morning.


  7. More on GNC:

    ~~•Expects free cash flow of $250 mln during the year; will continue to work on improving its debt structure as opposed to paying a dividend/returning money to shareholders


  8. With TSLA slashing prices on the Model S, it obviously has to effect the resale value of older cars which TSLA is taking back at 70% residual value.  That will start to snowball to huge losses.


  9. happy be bailed out of my shorts this am..


  10. Good morning!

    Quick recovery from the big sell-off – especially on the Nasdaq, which is already green.  I like the /NQ short at the 5,395 line with tight stops above 5,400 though.

    GNC/Albo – I just want them to reinstate the dividend and I'll be happy but paying down debt first is fine with me.

    WMT/StJ – So sickening.

    TSLA/Rustle – Slow motion train wreck.


  11. Wow, gold almost had a breakout and failed at $1,300.  Down today despite the weak Dollar too:

    /RB off the $1.70 line was a good play.

    $52.50 held on /CLM7 (new front-month).

    /NG coming back off the floor too:


  12. Ouch but worth watching at $200:

    NFLX back below $145, that's good for us.  Now if only TSLA would get there too.


  13. p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px ‘Helvetica Neue’; color: #454545}
    p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px ‘Helvetica Neue’; color: #454545; min-height: 14.0px}

    Good Evening,  Where can I find more info on the 5% Rule? 

     

    5% Rule/Phil  This is, of course, a simple application of our fabulous 5% Rule™ and no, it's not TA – it's just math!

     

    Disclaimer: I am 100 hours into my 10,000 hour journey.  1st option trade 2017


  14. Phil /CL – long on oil into the summer begins at a price point or a point in time?  Thanks


  15. Hi Phil.  Well into the money on CMG 2019 380/440 BCS, short 350 puts.  Should I be writing quarterly calls?  If so, at what price do you suggest?  Thanks.


  16. And so much for that rally.  What a joke this all is!  

    And if you go chasing rabbits, and you know you're going to fall
    Tell 'em a hookah-smoking caterpillar has given you the call

    Go ask Alice, I think she'll know
    • Stocks open in the red as investors take in the latest batch of earnings reports while keeping a wary eye out for global politics; Dow -0.3%, S&P and Nasdaq -0.1%.
    • European markets show steep losses, with U.K.'s FTSE -2.1% following Prime Minister May's surprise call for a snap election for June 8, France's CAC -1.4% ahead of the presidential election, and Germany's DAX -0.9%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei ended +0.3% while China's Shanghai Composite closed -0.8%.
    • In corporate news, financials are front and center in this morning earnings reports, with BofA and Schwab both slightly higher after posting better than expected earnings and revenues, but Goldman Sachs -2.9% after missing top and bottom line estimates.
    • U.S. Treasury prices are higher amid the morning's cautious tone, leaving the benchmark 10-year yield lower by 4 bps at 2.21%.
    • The British pound surged after the call for snap elections, with the U.S. dollar -1.2% vs. the pound; the U.S. Dollar Index -0.4%.
    • Despite the lower dollar, U.S. crude oil -0.4% at $52.45/bbl.

    • Q1 net income of $2.162B or $5.15 per share vs. $1.2B and $2.68 one year ago.
    • Investment Banking revenues of $1.7B up 16% Y/Y; advisory revenue of $756M down 2%; underwriting revenue of $947M up 37%. Investment banking backlog slipped from Q4 and from a year ago.
    • Institutional Client Services revenue of $3.36B down 2% Y/Y. FICC revenue of $1.69B flat from a year ago. Equities revenue of $1.67B down 6%.
    • Investment & Lending revenue of $1.46B up sharply from a year ago.
    • Investment Management revenue of $1.5B up 12% Y/Y.
    • Compensation and benefits of $3.29B up 24% Y/Y. Ratio of comp and benefits to revenue unchanged at 41%.
    • Standard CET1 ratio of 14.2%; advanced of 12.9%. Quarterly dividend is boosted to $0.75 from $0.65. Tangible book value per share of $175.05.
    • 6.2M shares bought back during quarter at average cost of $243.22 each. Another 50M of buybacks is authorized.
    • Conference call at 9:30 ET
    • Previously: Goldman Sachs misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (April 18)
    • GS -3.65% premarket

     

    • Long the greenback (UUPUDN) vs. the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) and pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is no longer one of the bank's "Top Trade" recommendations. Goldman economist Zach Pandi takes note stronger global growth, the Trump administration's concern with dollar strength, and a more dovish Federal Reserve.
    • The pound has actually appreciated somewhat vs. the dollar since the election, and the euro has dipped nearly 4%.

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales+2.3% Y/Y vs. +1.6% last week.
    • Sales were up 2.0% Y/Y through April 15.
    • Seasonal apparel demand was stoked by some warmer weather in the U.S.
    • Redbook expects April chain store sales growth of 1.9% as some seasonal business factors in.

    Bond bulls in charge as 10-year hits new 2017 low

    • The 10-year Treasury yield is down another five basis points to 2.20% this morning, matching yesterday's intraday low, and now at a level not seen since just a few days after November's election (it stood at about 1.9% prior to the Trump victory).
    • In economic news today, housing starts for March missed estimates, but the trend remains strong. In equity markets, stocks here are down only modestly, but lower by nearly 1% in Europe.
    • Looking at short-term rate markets, they're pricing in only a little more than one rate hike for the rest of the year, even as most Fed speakers are promising two-three more moves.
    • TLT +0.8%TBT -1.6%
    • March Housing Starts: 1.215M vs. 1.250M expected and 1.303M prior.
    • Building permits 1.260M vs. 1.250M expected.
    • A $700M increase in net interest income certainly helped Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) Q1, but CEO Brian Moynihan reminds that 60% of the bank's revenue growth last quarter was from non-interest sources (like trading).
    • Investors, however, tend to pay less for trading revenues which can be rather lumpy.
    • Turning to expenses, the bank – for now – is sticking with its promise to cut another $5B in annual expenses by 2018. Trouble is, with business growing, one would expect expenses to have to go up at least somewhat. Sure enough, noninterest expenses in Q1 of $14.848B were up a hair from a year earlier.
    • CFO Paul Donofrio reminds that the expense promise was based on the economic environment at that time. "If things get better, we'd have to adjust."
    • The good news on earnings overall and trading in particular has seemingly been priced in thanks to the results from JPMorgan and Citigroup last week, not to mention a 40% advance in BofA over the last six months. After an early pop, shares are lower by 0.5% at current writing.
    • WSJ blog
    • Earnings call slides
    • Previously: Surge in trading revenue boosts BofA's quarter (April 18)

    Freeport Looks Like A Great Buy

    • The price of iron ore falls 5% to a near six-month low, slammed by a decline in Chinese steel prices and concern about a supply glut.
    • Benchmark Australian ore for immediate delivery into China was down $3.10 to $61.50/metric ton, Financial Times reports, and has slumped by a third since hitting $94.50 two months ago, as steel production in China has continued to rise.
    • “We maintain a bearish view on iron ore,” Citigroup analysts say, expecting prices to remain weak as an additional 70M-75M metric tons of supply from Australia, Brazil and India hits the market and demand growth in China slows.
    • In premarket trade: BHP -2%, RIO -1.3%, VALE -2.8%, CLF -2%.
    • Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) reports motorcycle shipments fell 14.7% Y/Y to 70,831 in Q1.
    • U.S. retail motorcycles were down 5.7% to miss the expectation of analysts. Harley's U.S. market share in the 601cc-plus segment was up to 51.3%.
    • International sales fell 1.8%, driven lower by a 9% drop in the Asia Pacific region.
    • Operating margin in the motorycle segment fell 310 bps to 18.0%.
    • The company is taking the approach of holding back some 2017 models in order to help U.S. dealers clear out 2016 inventory. =
    • Looking ahead, Harley expects 2017 shipments to be flat to down modestly compared to last year. Q2 shipments of 80K to 85K are anticipated.
    • Previously: Harley-Davidson beats by $0.03, misses on revenue (April 18)
    • HOG -4.12% premarket to $56.95.
    • Piper Jaffray warns that electric trucks from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) pose a long-term threat to some trucking names.
    • Cummins (NYSE:CMI) and PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) are downgraded by the firm to Neutral from Overweight due to valuation and the threat of EV disruption.
    • Allison Transmission (NYSE:ALSN) is also identified as a supplier with EV risk. Piper notes that WABCO Holdings (NYSE:WBC) is insulated for the most part from the EV threat in trucking.
    • The long-term horizon for trucking could also be influenced by self-driving startups like Embark and Uber (Private:UBER)-owned Otto, which although they aren't expected to be volume players, could lead to some changes within trucking.
    • W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW): Q1 EPS of $2.88 misses by $0.11.
    • Revenue of $2.54B (+1.2% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
    • Press Release
    • W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW) reports sales grew 1% in Q1, driven by a 5 percentage point increase from volume growth.
    • U.S. business sales down 1% to $1.95B.
    • Canada business sales grew 4% to $186.14M.
    • Other businesses sales rose 12% to $497.41M.
    • Gross margin rate down 160 bps to 40.1%
    • Adjusted operating margin rate squeezed 200 bps to 11.4%.
    • FY2017 Guidance: Sales: +1% to +4%; Diluted EPS: $10 to $11.30; Tax rate: 35% to 36%
    • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJQ1 results ($M): Total Revenues: 17,766 (+1.6%); Consumer: 3,228 (+1.0%); Pharmaceutical: 8,245 (+0.8%); Medical Devices & Diagnostics: 6,293 (+3.0%).
    • Key product sales: Remicade: 1,672 (-6.0%); Stelara: 823 (+12.0%); Invega Sustenna/Xeplion/Invega Trinza: 604 (+17.7%); Zytiga: 523 (-6.3%); Xarelto: 513 (-9.5%); Prezista/Prezcobix/Rezolsta: 430 (-4.9%).
    • Pre-tax earnings: 5,575 (+5.3%); Non-GAAP pre-tax earnings: 6,103 (+5.2%); Net income: 4,422 (-0.8%); Non-GAAP net income: 5,038 (+3.8%); EPS: 1.61 (+1.3%); Non-GAAP EPS: 1.83 (+5.8%).
    • 2017 Guidance: Total Revenues: $75.4B – 76.1B; Non-GAAP EPS: $7.00 – 7.15.
    • Shares are off a fraction premarket on light volume.

     

    • Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) inks an agreement with Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) to acquire its Patient Care, Deep Vein Thrombosis and Nutritional Insufficiency businesses for $6.1B. Total revenues of the three units were $2.3B for the 12-month period ending October 2016.
    • The deal will be immediately accretive by more than $0.21 to fiscal 2018 non-GAAP EPS, including $100M of inventory step-up costs during the first several quarters, and $0.55 to non-GAAP EPS in fiscal 2019. By the end of 2020, synergies will exceed $150M/year. Cardinal will add more than 10K employees to the payroll.
    • The transaction will be financed with cash on hand and $4.5B in new senior unsecured debt.
    • Chairman and CEO George S. Barrett says, "We are thrilled about today's announcement, as this well-established product line is complementary to our medical consumables business and fits naturally into our customer offering. For this reason, this product portfolio has been on our radar for many years. We distribute some of these products today and have been collaborative partners with the leadership of this business. Given the current trends in healthcare, including aging demographics and a focus on post-acute care, this industry-leading portfolio will help us further expand our scope in the operating room, in long-term care facilities and in home healthcare, reaching customers across the entire continuum of care."
    • CAH is down 7% and MDT is up 1% premarket, both on light volume

     

    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH +1.3%) Q1 results: Revenues: $48,723M (+9.4%); Premiums: $38,938M (+11.9%); Products: $6,129M (-4.1%); Services: $3,434M (+9.4%); Investment and other income: $222M (+21.3%); Net Income: $1M (0.0%); EPS: $1 (0.0%); Non-GAAP EPS: $1 (0.0%); Quick Assets: $1M (0.0%); CF Ops: $1M (0.0%).
    • UnitedHealthcare: $40,136M (+11.8%); Optum: $21,237M (+7.9%).
    • Employer & Individual Revenues: $12,739M (-0.6%); Medicare & Retirement Revenues: $16,552M (+17.7%); Community & State Revenues: $8,949M (+15.8%); Global Revenues: $1,896M (+47.3%);
    • OptumHealth: $4,733M (+18.4%); OptumInsight: $1,843M (+10.6%); OptumRx: $1,4947M (+4.7%).
    • Operating Income: $3,413M (+15.3%); Net Income: $2,172M (+34.8%); EPS: $2.23 (+33.5%); Non-GAAP EPS: $2.37 (+30.9%); Quick Assets: $19,352M (+45.8%); CF Ops: $6,456M (+178.5%).
    • 2017 Guidance: Revenues: ~$200B; GAAP EPS: $9.10 – $9.30; Non-GAAP EPS: $9.65 – 9.85; CF Ops: ~$12B.
    • Shares are up 2% premarke

    • Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE): Q1 EPS of $0.01 misses by $0.06.
    • Revenue of $271.23M (-1.2% Y/Y) misses by $28.52M.
    • Press Release
    • Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE) reports that direct-to-consumer comparable sales fell 2.4% in Q1. The mark falls to -8.1% if the e-commerce channel is backed out.
    • Kate Spade North America sales were down 0.6% during the quarter, while the international business was flat.
    • Gross profit as a percentage of sales increased 140 bps to 63.2%. SG&A expenses came in at 60.7% of sales vs. 55.3% a year ago.
    • Kate Spade ended the quarter with 448 stores vs. 452 a year ago.
    • The company says that there is no definitive timeline for its review process. No new guidance was issued.
    • Previously: Kate Spade misses by $0.06, misses on revenue (April 18)
    • KATE -2.06% premarket to $19.00

    Legal battle starts over robotic vacuums

    Image result for jetsons rosie vacuum
    • A lawsuit filed by iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT) accuses Hoover and Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) of patent infringement covering robotic vacuums.
    • The complaint also named Shenzhen Silver Star Intelligent Technology and Suzhou Real Power.
    • The company is looking to block the further use of its robotic vacuum inventions.

    IMAX inks new deal with Omnijoi Cinemas

    • IMAX Corporation (NYSE:IMAX) announces an expanded hybrid revenue-sharing partnership with Jiangsu Omnijoi Cinema Development Co.
    • The company says the arrangement will see the addition of 40 new IMAX theater systems to be located in new multiplexes across tier one to tier four cities in China.
    • The majority of the sites are expected to be open by the end of 2020 and the remaining sites are seen opening by the end of 2021.
    • The agreement brings Omnijoi Cinemas' total IMAX commitment to 72 theaters.
    • IMAX CEO Richard L. Gelfond says the new signings add to the company's growing number of joint revenue-sharing arrangements in China and support continued growth in the region.
    • IMAX operates in China through its IMAX China (OTC:IMXCFOTC:IXCNY) subsidiary.
    • Source: Press Release

    Wall Street stream of consciousness on Netflix

    • Bank of America Merrill Lynch turns its focus on Netflix (NFLX -2%) to Q2, with new and original content expected to drive subscriber growth. The firm notes that the quarter-to-date net subscriber growth already looks strong. BAML moves its price target on NFLX to $184 (Street high).
    • Raymond James and Nomura Instinet both think that Netflix's international growth will continue to drive improved profitability. Both firms have a PT of $165 on the streamer.
    • Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter warns on the "greater fool" theory on Netflix that it can grow into its valuation through prices hikes. "The truth is their content costs will rise as they choose to raise prices," he says.
    • Meanwhile, Credit Suisse isn't looking at Netflix earnings, but is dishing out thoughts on a potential takeover of the company by Apple. A $60B valuation is called "ambitious" by the firm. "However, given the desirability of providing video streaming content to Apple users and devices, it is a possibility with improved terms with content owners and potentially bundling with other Apple services," reads the CS note.
    • Sources: Bloomberg and Benzinga
    • Previously: Netflix beats by $0.03, revenue in-line (April 17)
    • Previously: Netflix subscriber growth falls short of estimates (April 17)

    Netflix: Value Investors' Nightmare


  17. KATE taking a big hit on earnings.  Sold 20 Jan19 15 puts at $3.10 awhile ago.  Def will be sold, at what price is the issue.  DD?


  18. Taih,

    KATE I like to learn something: why would you ajust a put 640 days away which you sold for 3.10 and is now trading for 2.70?


  19. Oil/Jeff – It's not like we flip a switch, we just look for long opportunities in a channel, not short.  For example, this is the way we've been playing:

    So conviction long down at $47.50 and conviction short at $55 has been our fall-spring channel.

    Now it's going to look like this (after this rollover, into the holiday weekend next month):

    So now, unless we're above $57.50, we're not too enthusiastic about shorting while we're a lot more inclined to go long at $52.50 or $50.  It also means that, between $52.50 and $57.50 I will have very little interest in playing and that means I will start getting annoyed with all the people asking over and over again if it's a good time to play oil when we're between the two and I have to say "no" for the 100th time.  Happens every year…  cool

    CMG/Taihu – The way the momos move, I'd be careful writing short calls but maybe sell 1/3 the June $500 ($9.50) calls and 1/3 the June $425 puts ($6.50) so you are collecting about $5 per long, per Q.  With $16 collected, your safe zone is $409-$516 – about $50 in either direction. 

    KATE/Taihu – We sold 10 in the LTP at $4.18 but KATE is at $18.27 so why worry about short $15 puts?  

    And what Yodi said!


  20. Phil /oil;

    Same clear reasoning could be fine for  SI, NG, GC, RB, ….perhaps can be kindly include by StJ in his daily chart.


  21. Gold…shimmers and shines.  But….the rest, oye ve


  22. /KCN7 > $144.05 Damm! Missed $142 again ….


  23. ARNA / Phil & Pharm – Any interest in this penny stock bio? 


  24. ARNA/Aquila….Um. No.


  25. KATE: Confident that they will sell the business soon for more than $15/share. See it as an opportunity at this price to own more.


  26. Pharm > Thanks


  27. Damn, my power went out.  First day home since Thurs and I'd be better off in a hotel.   8(


  28. Supreme court blocks Arkansas from flurry of executions

    Late-night decision stays death of Don Davis, and prevents start of schedule that planned killings of several prisoners this month<p>The US supreme court has ended a dramatic day of legal tussles over Arkansas’ unprecedented plan to execute eight prisoners in 11 days, declining to allow the state to …


  29. Throughout history, investors have repeatedly made the same investment mistakes. Whether it was selling at the bottom of major market corrections, or buying near the peaks of the next cyclical bull market, the results have, for the most part, been generally the same.<p>I have written articles on …


  30. The asset class of Beautiful Machines heads south.<p>Ret. General James Grazioplene served as the VP of private military corporation Dyncorp for three …


  31. You know the seconds and minutes you waste waiting for the elevator to arrive, for a friend to reply to an IM or for a website to load? A team of MIT CSAIL researchers believe you can put them to good use, so they created a series of apps called the WaitSuite that makes the most of those idle …


  32. Phil,

    What do you think of going long on Copper?

    Thank you


  33. As individuals, the amount we know about the world is miniscule. One psychologist estimated that an individual’s knowledge store is about one gigabyte, much less than fits on a typical USB thumb drive. This is why most of us struggle to name even a few foreign leaders or accurately draw a picture …


  34. U.S. Housing Starts Fell 6.8% in March

    WASHINGTON—U.S. housing starts declined in March, but not enough to signal a reversal from the long-term trend of improvement in new home construction.<p>Starts decreased 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.215 million from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.<p>The decline …


  35. International migration is on the rise. By one estimate, the number of international migrants worldwide reached 244 million in 2015, up from 222 million in 2010, and 173 million in 2000. Immigration does not merely increase the size of the population in the destination country; it also increases …


  36. Republicans are trying to prevent a political tremor from happening Tuesday night just north of Atlanta that would be a blow to President Trump and a boon to the rising Democratic opposition to him.<p>”I’m very concerned,” said Tom Boyle, a 76-year-old retiree from Roswell, Ga., as he was making calls …


  37. I’ve been warning for as long as I can remember that average investors have lost sight of the fact that their outperformance is attributable to …


  38. <b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ: NFLX)reported mixed quarterly results after Monday’s market close. We already broke down the pertinent numbers, so now let’s take a look at the challenges that await the leading premium streaming platform.<p>Netflix stock was hitting new highs just ahead of the report.Let’s look at …


  39. Was at the dentist for an hour and reality hit the markets again it seems! 


  40. Industrial production, the Federal Reserve’s measure of US goods output, was right in line with expectations for the month of March.<p>Production increased by 0.5%, the exact increase expected by economists. This was an improvement from last month’s flat reading.<p>Surprisingly, output for manufacturing …


  41. Phil – Thanks for the oil writeup – that was exactly the kind of answer I expected…


  42. Phil you are right, the are just game credits. Granted, they are fungible, fully tradable for cash and have a paltry 1,560X,2 year return, $0.005 to $0.78. 

    $10 = $15,600. What a waste of money.


  43. looking at that chart closely you can see the price as low as one satoshi (1x10Y-8 BTC), so $0.000004, so that's now $40 throw away money back then is $1,000,000 now on the nose.


  44. stjean/  I doubt very much that a dentist visit by you or anyone could really affect the market


  45. BioD

    If you could summarize what you feel the best current AltCoin investments would be, would that be tough?  I'd like to put just some fun money in a few of the ones that might pop.  Maybe 500 – 1000$.  

    Also, any reccomendations on which "bank" to use to purchase and hold these?


  46. Phil – Do you like the dollar still long here @ 99.50?  Or due to all the political talk, should we stay away?

    I've done very well going long under 100.


  47. Look at GNC go now, up 29% today. Still a good deal to buy the $7.50 covered call for net $6.165 for a 21% return in ten months if GNC holds $7.50.


  48. GNC –  that is the Jan 18 $7.50 call.


  49. Back from the stone age!

    Wow, it's amazing how fast things fall apart without electricity…

    Clear/Advill – What do you mean, charts for Silver, etc?  They aren't the same, oil is very easy to range because it's totally rigged, the others actually need to be observed with many factors taken into account before determining where to trade them.

    Speaking of commodities, /KCN7 blasting back strong:

    Dollar back to where we like them long so be careful with bullish commodity bets:

    ARNZ/Aquila – Not for me, I don't touch penny stocks for the most part. 

    GNC at $9.32!

    KATE/Taihu –  I doubt they'd be interested in selling for less than $22ish.  That would be about $3Bn and a 20 p/e – not outrageous but also not that attractive so I doubt they go anywhere soon.  Here's how their last 25 quarters went:

    So yes, when they were at $14 the price was so low that selling seemed like a good idea and they popped to $24 on speculation but then they dragged their heels and now a bad Q is pushing them back down but $15 (<$2Bn) is still way too low for the stock – let alone a sale price.

    Copper/Kgabor – As I was saying at the Nasdaq yesterday, China is screwing up that market and they have a huge glut of inventory.  Until they start to use it (building things), it's a dangerous market to play.  I like copper well enough (/HG) to take a long off the $2.50 line with tight stops below and again at $2.25 and again at $2, where I would then have conviction but over $2.50 doesn't excite me and it's a very expensive contract to be wrong in.

    Reality/StJ – Only paid a brief visit, now back in its cage.  cheeky

    Image result for reality animated gif

    Game credits/BDC – I knew my kids were onto something!  

    Affect/CDN – I don't know, StJ went to the dentist and I lost my power and this happens to the market:

    All very suspicious if you ask me!   That spike down is right when my power went off too.

    Dollar/Burr – Yes because it's not really what Mnunchin said but what May said that sent the Pound flying higher against the Dollar and Kuroda's comments weren't doveish enough and it looks like LePen won't win so the Euro perked up – that's why the Dollar really went back to the bottom of its range today:

    Hit the 2.5% Rule! 

    So yes to playing /DX long at 99.50 but tight stops under.  

    GNC/Jet – I still like them, so obviously underpriced now.  As a new trade on GNC:

    • Sell 10 2019 $7.50 puts for $2.80 ($2,800)
    • Buy 20 2019 $5 calls for $5.25 ($10,500)
    • Sell 20 2019 $7.50 calls for $4 ($8,000) 

    That's a net $300 credit on the $5,000 spread so the upside is $5,300 (1,766%) and all GNC has to do is hold $7.50, which is now down about 20% from here.  Worst case is owning 1,000 shares at net $7.20 ($7,200), which is about where we just doubled down.


  50. Burrben - you're in the wild west of crypto right now. Altcoins have been exploding after being pretty dormant until late last year. For "exploring" new coins go here and get out to page 3  (#'s 200-400) and buy $10 of anything that catches your eye. I'll let you know what I buy if that interests you. 

    For US based folks: for [USD <-> BTC], I recommend coinbase.com and for [BTC <-> Alts] set up at both bittrex.com and poloniex.com and that's pretty much all I have going. 

    I cannot officially recommend my project, GreenCoin, but if you want that one then coinexchange.io (greencoin's symbol is "GREV2"), and rest assured you are not buying any from me — I can't sell! One thing's for sure — it's cheap though !!!! 8)


  51. Phil, I am holding some GNC stock bought at $12.67, now down about $3.30. I am covered with $7.50 and $10 Jan calls and I have already cashed out some $12.50 calls for a profit. I wonder if it makes sense now that they don't pay a dividend, to sell the stock and establish a BCS instead for lower risk and more return?


  52. Good for AirBnB, attacking back against hotels that have been lobbying against them.   Meanwhile, AirBnB is so popular now that I couldn't even find a reasonable one in NYC for last weekend (thought it would be fun to have a cool apartment for the weekend).  

    Greencoin/BDC – EVERYONE – If you guys are interested, we could help BDC promote Greencoin buy having a bunch of us commit to buying and trading it.  It would send it up in the rankings pretty quickly as most cryptos have almost no volume to them. I'd say if we got maybe 40 people who were willing to put $500 to work, it could be a fun experiment in cornering the crypto market.

    GNC/Jet – Gosh, I wish you would have DD'd with our LTP position, we got our net down to $5.15.  Anyway, your net wasn't $12.67 if you sold calls but sure, I like the $2.50 bull call spread at net $1.25 that's 20% in the money more than owning the stock at $9.25, right?  That's without even selling the puts so if, for example, you had $12,670 (1,000 shares) and you are down $3,300 at $9.25 (not counting short calls) then all you need is 30 spreads at $3,750 that would make $3,750 at $7.50 instead of tying up $9,250 and needing to get back to $12.67 to get even.  See how silly stocks are compared to options?  


  53. I'm in for $500 on the Greencoin experiment


  54. FTR kicking around in the < $2 gutter again.


  55. I'm in for $500 on the Greencoin experiment


  56. BDC –  I'm looking at it as "fun" vegas money.  I'm fine to lose 1-2K with whatever you are buying.  I'd rather just take the advice of someone who knows the market rather than try and figure out what might hit.  If you wouldn't mind letting us know or me know if Phil doesn't want it promoted on the site.  

    I'll setup those exchanges today.  

    I'm cool with the $500 Greencoin thing, but I have no idea on the size/liquidity of the market.  


  57. I have no idea what you are talking about but I am in for $500 as well.


  58. Oh, here's yesterday's Nasdaq interview:  https://www.facebook.com/NASDAQ/videos/10155128457462429/

    Greencoin/Burr – Size is effectively zero and liquidity is effectively zero, the point is – rather than trying to jump on some random bandwagon, we pool our efforts and do our best to promote this one small currency.  Most of them are so small that they barely register so the activity generated by a few dozen people actively trading can rank up a coin from 1,000 to 100 and then, hopefully, it gets noticed as a rising star and other people jump in.  Just a fun experiment.  If we get enough people interested, we should make it a weekend project in May – maybe BDC can make progress posts and we can comment on our own activities with the coins.


  59. I'm like Latch, have no idea how this market works, but willing to throw 500 in as an educational adventure.


  60. I am in for $500. 


  61. LOL, sentiment on GS turned very sour:

    WMT coming back:

    We're playing them long only in the Butterfly Portfolio:

    Short Put 2018 19-JAN 55.00 PUT [WMT @ $73.89 $0.40] -10 12/17/2015 (276) $-5,600 $5.60 $-5.04 n/a     $0.56 $-0.02 $5,040 90.0% $-560
    Short Call 2018 19-JAN 72.50 CALL [WMT @ $73.89 $0.40] -30 3/21/2016 (276) $-10,740 $3.58 $0.97     $4.55 $0.30 $-2,910 -27.1% $-13,650
    Long Call 2018 19-JAN 65.00 CALL [WMT @ $73.89 $0.40] 30 3/21/2016 (276) $22,200 $7.40 $2.40     $9.80 - $7,200 32.4% $29,400

    Still waiting for Trump at SNA this afternoon.  They are down 1% for the day at $163.14.


  62. GNC/Phil  What you suggest makes a ton of sense if I had naked stock, but I have covered calls. So swapping the stock for a $5 call actually makes my return worse because of the premium on the long calls.  But I do free up a ton of margin (it's an IRA) and I could do  something else with that margin while I  wait for GNC to not drop. Probably worth considering.


  63. John Oliver was great by the way (whole show) – here's his summary of French elections:


  64. I'd be up for the GreenCoin thing, but I went to that CoinExchange. io site and couldn't  figure out how to get started. So I expect I'd need to be walked  through the process by BDC at some point.


  65. The futures curve on /DX is sloping downward.  The Mar2018 /DX is trading @ 98.9. hmmm.

    It goes front to back month, 99.4, 99.22, 99.035, 98.9


  66. GNC/Jet – But the short calls are profitable and you still have $9.25 tied up in the stock so why bend over backwards to keep them open.  I'm saying close the stock and short calls and start from scratch with money that makes 100% at $7.50 – no short puts/margin necessary.

    Dollar/Burr – Well if it does break, it can break hard:

    All the more reason to have alternate currencies on hand!  wink


  67. Phil / SGYP – any thoughts on this,  Been taking a beating.  I'm about to be assigned 30X of the at about 4.6.  My thoughts are to take the stock and sell some short calls against to ride this back up….   I also have 

    30X of the '18 4.5 / 7 BCS in for 1.00 – I'm not too worried about but am thinking of rolling down a bit on this.

    Would like your thoughts on this please.


  68. I am in for $1000


  69. In for $500 on Greencoin as well. 


  70. SGYP/Batman – I'd like to know if Pharm has any input first.  They just announced 3 patents – I'm not sure why it's going down.  

    $1,000/DC – Keep in mind this is very likely to lose – only a few coins ever actually break out. 


  71. Trump making the big protectionism speech – 1930s here we come! 


  72. I'm in for $500 on the greencoin thing. 


  73. SGYP….I am still holding my short Ps to expiration and long the stock. I would roll the Ps out some and then wait and see.  They are gearing up for launch…which for small companies takes a long time, unfortunately.


  74. Phil / Pharm / SGYP – thanks for this input… I'll hold the BCS and roll 

    Any thoughts on the roll end of year or sooner?


  75. I got coinbase.com all setup.  Fast and easy.  BTC is up like 15% today, so I'll wait a little bit to buy at a better price.  


  76. no selloff with this bombast?


  77. Watching July $5s for the P roll.  About 30c difference.


  78. I would throw in for the green coin thing as well…


  79. And we are off to the races, yet again in rally mode > We need Phil and the other Greybeards to kill this market and restore sanity


  80. I am in for Greencoin for $500 (Pharma saved my mad money from ARNA)


  81. Pharm-

    Wondering, what is the preferred way you like to enter the following stocks on Car-T? JUNO, KITE and BLCM.

    Also how much % would you put into each play right now, assuming I have none now?


  82. I was thinking that I would wait until everyones buying jacks up the greencoin and then I short it.  Am I missing the point?


  83. BLCM…1% of a portfolio.  Sell a few puts, do a BCS or stock with covered call.  I am in the stock with Aug 15 calls covering.  I have the May 17.5 calls bought with the 10 Ps sold.  Need to reset those next month.  Waiting a bit.  If you can get $1 for the Aug 10 Ps STO…those would be ok, but the spreads are v wide.


  84. KITE has moved away, JUNO is a waiting game.  I would hold on those two FWIW.  BLCM is my favored play.

    EPZM is basing…I like them for a small pop play.


  85. Buying TZA weekly 18 calls at the close. Nice little buying opportunity on spike up.


  86. Greybeards/Aquila – Ouch, that hurt!  

    Greencoin/CDN – Missing the point of the group exercise.  I could just say "Let's all give CDN $500" and save time…

    TZA/Den – Good idea..  1,360 as usual.  

    IBM earnings on deck.


  87. nflx jumps 5 bucks after the close.  Huh?


  88. never mind, silly me


  89. GS down 5.04% for the day, probably not done selling as it was an overshoot and a bounce back only to the 5% line.

    JNJ also had a bad day for the Dow:

    People losing faith in AXP as other cards roll out maybe better HNW programs:

    I have to go be on some Chinese Bloomberg thing later.  I think I'm talking about China's economy to Chinese people – isn't that strange.  I guess they can't get someone in China to say their economy is fake?  


  90. Pharm

    Where does NVS Novartis AG fit into this field?

    With JUNO, KITE AND BLCM

    Thanks


  91. Are we getting out of CLF? Sorry I've been off the gird for a few days 


  92. IBM taking it on the chin.


  93. Interesting piece of anecdotal information that could make for a good investment. My brother is an executive recruiter and today he interviewed a top executive from a gun company. This gentleman said that sales have fallen off a cliff since Trump took office. Down at least 50% he said. This is very recent and has not hit the earnings yet. They are saying it is because so many gun nuts were worried that Obama would ban gun sales that they were buying all they could get. Now that Trump is in, they don't feel the need to buy hand over fist. Could be a trend that hits all the gun manufacturers in the next few quarters perhaps, The ones that sell to consumers most will be hit hardest, He said the military weapons are holding their own. Phil any comments or ideas? This guy was or  is a top operations guy so he definitely is in the loop and my brother is a very smart guy who listens and asks all the right questions so I would trust this. Let me know if anyone has a good trade idea for this information.


  94. Gun execs are referring to this as the Trump Slump btw.


  95. NVS has their own programs for CAR-T and are in a race against KITE.  There is plenty of room, and any slip could open the doors to competition (ask JUNO).  BLCM is a bit different, as they have a bazooka that shuts down CAR-T cells if they go haywire.  KITE, JUNO and NVS do not.


  96. Craig > Washington Post had a similar article in early March >

    Sales of guns and ammunition in the United States have dropped precipitously since Election Day, according to FBI statistics, trade groups, gun shop owners and corporate reports, what many say is the result of electing a president who has vowed to protect gun rights.

     https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gun-sales-have-dropped-since-trumps-election-except-among-people-scared-of-his-administration/2017/03/05/03f5b522-ff6a-11e6-8f41-ea6ed597e4ca_story.html?utm_term=.87850d9dbfd7


  97. MRK/Hanj – testing the 200 dma (which has been support in last year).. implied vol about 3x hist vol. Suggest oppty? 200 line probably good stop for playing either way, following a close under.

    .

    MRK/Phil – i'm still looking for a market pullback, hunting for short plays. Do you consider them reasonable value here or too rich? P/E is materially higher than peers (JNJ, PFE, LLY) with much lower profit margin, earnings growth, revenue growth.. next earnings 5/2


  98. This is great:

    CLF/Japar – From the review:

    • CLF – On track but I'm a little concerned with iron ore prices dropping so fast.  If $7.50 fails to hold, we may want to consider cutting them. 

    Not officially out yet but ready to pull the plug.

    Guns/Craigs – Well, there's RGR and AOBC (SWHC changed) and both have already taken lumps:

    So down 25% since Nov – are sales off that much?  I'm no gun expert and it doesn't seem worth becoming one just to start watching these things as the play already seems to have been made.  Low estimate on AOBC seems to be about $1.50 so I'd hope they go to $15 and go long, if anything.

    MRK/Scott – Well they make $4/share and pay a $1.88 dividend so you're getting back almost $6 on your $62.27 so I like them as a long-term play but I wouldn't expect much growth.  2019 $60 puts can be sold for $6.40 so you get back 50% more than the dividend for NOT owning the stock while you wait to see if you get to buy them for $54 – that's a good place to start.  


  99. Pharm

    With my limited understanding JUNO is a short NVS would be the leader

    And BLCM is the same area but a different approach that could stop the other company’s

    Thanks for the help


  100. Phil if possible can you delete the name of the company from my previous post? I probably shouldn't have included that identifiable information.


  101. Futures selling off a bit. 

    • IBM is 3.6% lower in aftermarket trade after its Q1 revenues marked the 20th straight quarter of Y/Y declines, and missed expectations significantly.
    • Revenues fell 2.8% to $18.16B vs. an expected $18.39B, though EPS of $2.38 beat the Street.
    • Strategic imperatives revenue was up 12% to $7.8B, the company notes, and it rose to 42% of revenue over the past 12 months ($33.6B).
    • Revenue by segment: Cognitive Solutions, $4.06B (up 2.1%); Global Business Services, $4.01B (down 3%); Technology Services and Cloud Platforms, $8.22B (down 2.5%); Systems, $1.4B (down 16.7%); Global Financing, $405M (down 1.2%).
    • The company reiterated its guidance for the full year, of operating (non-GAAP) EPS of at least $13.80 (vs. consensus for $13.78) — adjusting for acquisition-related charges of $0.75/share and non-operating retirement-related items of $1.10/share.
    • Net cash from operations was $4B for the quarter ($1.9B excluding Global Financing receivables). Free cash flow was $1.1B.
    • Conference call to come at 5 p.m. ET.
    • Press Release

    I wonder how many companies will need to miss for investors to get the message?

    Speaking of guns – shooting in Fresno.

    Done Craigs.


  102. Phil, Spitting Corbra soon? Strether


  103. Cobra.


  104. qc – I would not short JUNO, but NVS and KITE are the leaders, correct.  Those are racing to be the first.  BLCM has a twist, and could be a potential for a buyout.  


  105. Pharm

    Thanks 


  106. oil was a great short three times today. TF gave us a nice move down as predicted and if you timed gold silver well are they were both big money makers today as well.


  107. Fresno – The 39-year-old suspect, identified as Kori Ali Muhammad, is in custody.

    http://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/crime/article145234709.html
    from above: "What we know is that this was a random act of violence,”

    From below: "…there is a reason that the animus can reach a fever pitch during Easter: more than any other Christian holiday, Resurrection Sunday commemorates and celebrates three central Christian doctrines that Islam manifestly rejects…"
    http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/266428/why-easter-brings-out-worst-islam-raymond-ibrahim


  108. Putin not getting his money's worth:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-collapsing-with-base-sad

    President Trump’s popularity has collapsed among a key base constituency: Russians.

    Yes, really.

    According to a new poll from state-run polling and research service VTSIOM, President Trump’s support levels among Russians have collapsed (really not an exaggeration) since his missile strike in Syria. Only 7% of Russians disapproved of Trump in March. Now that number has spiked to 39%.

    Meanwhile Trump’s approval has dipped from 38% to 13%.


  109. Apple quietly rolled out updated versions of its iWork, iMovie and GarageBand apps on Mac and iOS today, making them free for all customers on both platforms. Many customers already had free copies of these apps, as they came free with new Mac or iOS devices. The pricing change, however, removes …


  110. Here’s why humans are wired to produce false memories

    How much do you trust your memories? Do you consider the events and perspectives you remember as gospel truth, or as more malleable, fickle things that bend and warp with time and shifting context?<p>The recently released film The Sense of an Ending, adapted from Julian Barnes’s Booker-winning novel, …


  111. The First Wave of Corporate AI Is Doomed to Fail

    Artificial intelligence is a hot topic right now. Driven by a fear of losing out, companies in many industries have announced AI-focused initiatives. Unfortunately, most of these efforts will fail. They will fail not because AI is all hype, but because companies are approaching AI-driven innovation …


  112. Managing for the Long Term

    In the fall of 2014, the hedge fund activist and Allergan shareholder Bill Ackman became increasingly frustrated with Allergan’s board of directors. In a letter to the board, he took the directors to task for their failure to do (in his words) “what you are paid $400,000 per year to do on behalf of …


  113. In a low-slung office building at his giant ceramics factory in southwestern Nigeria, Sun Jian insisted that we have tea. He had just returned from a trip to China, and he had a batch of top-quality tea he wanted to share with visitors, in an age-old gesture of Chinese hospitality.<p>Sun is from …


  114. By Ben Levisohn<p>Stocks declined today as investors sought the safety of bonds as Brexit grew more complicated, U.S. economic data came in mixed, and</b> …


  115. Just as politicians and pundits are talking more about tax cuts and less about tax reform, the public seems happier with the revenue code than at any time in the past decade. Congress may be headed toward passing a tax cut the public is not demanding.<p>Each tax season for the past three decades, the …


  116. President Trump called to congratulate Erdogan on the Turkish referendum<p>Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an received a warm congratulation from his counterpart, U.S. President Donald Trump, shortly after his referendum win. But not all Republicans were celebrating — including many in Trump’s own …


  117. WASHINGTON — President Trump visited the Tennessee estate of Andrew Jackson last month to symbolically claim the mantle of the first genuinely populist president since the 1830s. Just like Jackson, Mr. Trump defeated a political dynasty to take power and was now determined to challenge what the new …


  118. They are not just the places where the most ambitious and talented people want to be—they are where such people feel they need to be.<p>In the fall of 2013, in a hotel suite overlooking New York City’s Times Square, the gaming giant Electronic Arts unveiled <i>Cities of Tomorrow</i>, the latest addition to …


  119. The Problem with Product Proliferation

    Royal Philips, the Netherlands’ most valuable brand, has long been a leader in product innovation. But in the first 10 years of the new millennium, the company’s revenue plunged 40%, profits for the decade were wiped out, and its market capitalization fell significantly. What went wrong?<p>The …


  120. The “armada” that President Trump said he was sending to deter North Korea still hasn’t arrived — and it has thousands more miles to cover if it actually does sail to the Korean Peninsula.<p>The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and its strike group actually sailed south after U.S. Pacific Command …


  121. IBM reported a bigger-than-expected drop in revenue for the first time in five quarters, hurt by weak demand in its technology services business.<p>Shares of IBM, whose revenue has now fallen for 20 quarters in a row, were down 3.7 percent at $163.71 in trading after the bell on Tuesday.<p>The company …


  122. <b>Can an exchange-traded fund get too big for its index?</b> That’s the question investors in one popular gold miner ETF are grappling with after <b>rapid</b> …


  123. Linear Thinking in a Nonlinear World

    Test yourself with this word problem: Imagine you’re responsible for your company’s car fleet. You manage two models, an SUV that gets 10 miles to the gallon and a sedan that gets 20. The fleet has equal numbers of each, and all the cars travel 10,000 miles a year. You have enough capital to …


  124. <b>Kenosha, Wisconsin (CNN) —</b> President Donald Trump signed an executive order Tuesday directing federal agencies to implement the “Buy American, Hire American” rhetoric of his campaign.<p>”The buy and hire American order I’m about to sign will protect workers and students like you,” Trump told a crowd …


  125. The three big winners from the FCC’s recent spectrum auction have widely varying plans for their spectrum.<p>The FCC just announced the results of its …


  126. NEW YORK — Investors have pinned high hopes on President Donald Trump’s tax reform proposals, and that’s one of the reasons stocks have soared since Trump’s election in November.<p>But there’s reason for caution: it’s not clear if Washington will deliver as much as investors want, and if there are big …


  127. China’s shadow banking is back in full swing, an unintended side effect of the government’s campaign against financial leverage, which has curbed …


  128. By Johanna Bennett<p>If you’re placing bets on which gambling haven will outperform over the next several months, <b>Susquehanna International Group</b> favors …


  129. AP FACT CHECK: Trump ignores 100-day high achievers

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s claim Tuesday that he’s accomplished more than anyone at this point of a presidency flies in the face of history.<p>A look at a few of his statements at a Wisconsin tool company and an earlier interview with Fox:<p>TRUMP: “No administration has accomplished more …


  130. Cowen and Oppenheimer analysts feel that the “name your own price” travel giant is about to hit a big milestone when it comes to share</b> …


  131. Canadian officials across all three levels of government vowed to be vigilant in monitoring the Toronto region’s rapidly accelerating housing market, …


  132. Wall Street is excited about this merger — and rightly so.<p><b>Knight Transportation</b> (NYSE:KNX) is merging with <b>Swift Transportation</b> (NYSE:SWFT) to build …


  133. Scott Galloway is a marketing professor at the NYU Stern School of Business and the founder of business intelligence firm L2. Galloway stopped by Business Insider to talk about the biggest names in tech. In this clip he talks about why he thinks Snap is a terrible investment. Following is a …


  134. Industrial metals plunged as traders capitulated amid stock market declines and skepticism surrounding the outlook for commodity demand from China …


  135. Boston (AP) — Adidas has apologized for sending out a marketing email praising customers it said “survived” this year’s Boston Marathon.<p>The subject …


  136. by Sprott Money – Apr 18, 2017 4:46 PM<p>The Western world is mired in a Greater Depression. To people who are paying attention, it couldn’t be more …


  137. Profits are surging for a major healthcare provider after ditching Obamacare

    UnitedHealthcare Group’s quarterly profit skyrocketed after the insurance provider drastically downsized its participation in the Obamacare exchanges.<p>The company’s profit rose by 35 percent in the first-quarter of 2017, and expanded nearly every aspect of its operation, including its participation …


  138. Rental-car company bonds are turning into lemons.<p>Debt issued by Hertz Global Holdings Inc. and Avis Budget Group Inc., which had traded at or above …


  139. Around 1.150 million mt of distillates have departed the US Gulf Coast for arrival in Europe in April, according to data from cFlow, S&P Global …


  140. <i>The head of Transas, Frank Coles, provides a curtain raiser today to next week’s Maritime CEO Forum in Singapore where he will be speaking in the</i> …


  141. Story Highlights<p>More than six in 10 say corporations, upper-income Americans pay too little<br>• Views that middle-income earners pay too much have …


  142. The far-Right leader Marine Le Pen on Sunday sought to mobilise her supporters six days ahead of France’s most unpredictable presidential election in decades by pledging to suspend all immigration and shield voters from “savage globalisation”.<p>Opinion polls have for months shown Le Pen and centrist …


  143. New York Times media columnist Jim Rutenberg’s recent dispatch from Moscow contains a litany of alarming observations about the Russian media.<p>“As soon as I turned on a television here I wondered if I had arrived through an alt-right wormhole,” Rutenberg wrote in Monday’s newspaper.<p>But the most …


  144. Volkswagen AG’s namesake brand is gearing up to take on Tesla Inc. with plans to roll out four affordable electric vehicles in the coming years.<p>The …


  145. DAR ES SALAAM – It may be true that every journey begins with a single step. But when it comes to education, especially in low- and middle-income …


  146. Over the past decade, revenue has plunged by more than 35% at JC Penney, largely due to strategic missteps made during Ron Johnson’s brief tenure as CEO. By contrast, Macy’s has been relatively successful at retaining sales, despite the severe impact of the Great Recession and the recent slowdown …


  147. Lars Ulrich<p>Drummer, Metallica<i><br>The band’s WorldWired 2017 tour, in support of</i> Hardwired?…?to Self-Destruct<i>, kicks off on May 10.</i><p><b>Was there a moment when</b> …


  148. President Donald Trump dove straight into a trade fight with Canada, promising U.S. dairy farmers his administration would intervene to restore …


  149. <i>Investor’s Business Daily</i> has a hit piece out on California, as you can tell from the headline, “Taxifornia does it again.” Here’s the first …


  150. By Asia Pop Culture<p>While the Chinese economy may not be as robust as it used to be, China still delivered over 30 billion packages in 2016. That’s …


  151. The Way of the Beeper<p>One day, not too soon — but still sooner than you think — the smartphone will all but vanish, the way beepers and fax machines …


  152. WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund has raised its outlook for global growth, citing a postelection confidence boost in the United States, better prospects in large emerging markets and an uptick in global trade.<p>The rosy forecast is something of a change of mind for the fund, which has …


  153. Growth in the global economy is gradually picking up, but it remains under threat from rising protectionism and the risk of trade wars, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.<p>The international organization slightly raised its projections for global growth this year in its semiannual World …


  154. The US is already saturated in debt… due to our financing a staggering amount of social entitlement spending which comprises 64% of the Federal …


  155. S&_ 500 could be headed for a surge as earnings per share grow and the earnings multiple stays low, says Morgan Stanley<p>“Although optimism is a late …


  156. , Women@Forbes<p>The metal-morphing Mechromancers of Oviedo, Florida will pit their world-class robot against others in four days of friendly competition.<p>Starting Tuesday, tens of thousands of young roboticists will be unleashing their metal hordes on two major cities in days of tight competition for …


  157. (Reuters) – Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O) reported a 22.1 percent increase in quarterly revenue on Tuesday, ahead of the sale of its core internet business to Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N).<p>Yahoo said revenue from Mavens – the mobile, video, native and social advertising units that it has touted as key …


  158. When N.F.L. owners voted overwhelmingly last month to move the Raiders to Las Vegas, some of them went out of their way to say the city was no longer the corrupting influence they believed it once was and now very capable of supporting a franchise.<p>The Dallas Cowboys’ owner, Jerry Jones, a prime …


  159. More parents are worried about their children smoking cigarettes than they are marijuana according to a new poll out from Marist and Yahoo News called Weed and The American Family. When asked about their top concerns for their children, 24% said that smoking cigarettes is their biggest worry …


  160. Read the original article on Futurism. Follow Futurism on Facebook. Copyright 2017. Follow Futurism on Twitter.


  161. Thursday’s, April 13th, 2017, trading displayed some evidence of “<b>exhaustive selling”.</b> It is still trading well above its 200- simple moving day …


  162. Former Fox News CEO paid for many deceptive sites, including leering blogs promoting female Fox personalities<p>Since a series of sexual harassment accusations led to the ouster of Roger Ailes as chairman and CEO of Fox News Channel last summer, the managerial culture he created at the network has …


  163. So far, President Trump has refused to release his tax returns while in office, breaking with a 40-year tradition.<p>He has claimed that ongoing IRS audits prevent him from doing so, even though such audits wouldn’t restrict anyone from publishing their returns. And Trump is mandated to be audited …


  164. The Environmental Protection Agency has gone pro-business.<p>Former Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt came to the Environmental Protection Agency …


  165. Before Alex Jones’ conspiracy theories enthralled the GOP mainstream, he was a cable access host and local in-joke<p>Alex Jones, with his conspiracy theory media empire Infowars, used to be a fringe character, until Donald Trump’s paranoia-driven campaign launched him into the national spotlight.<p>Watch …


  166. By targeting U.S. refineries through the production cut, OPEC producers have more flexibility in fighting for market share in the growing …


  167. Right-wing conspiracy theorist Alex Jones is in the middle of a brutal battle with his ex-wife, Kelly Jones, for custody of the couple’s three …


  168. IBM -Still trying to do it with mirrors. 

    Phil, when is Watson going to step up ?


  169. FWIW

    Two stocks on the Rivershore Investment Research recommended list in which I am heavy are FNSR & QUIK.  Both at attractive levels for purchase IMHO.

    Of course, I could be wrong. 8-)


  170. Greencoin experiment – Yes for $500, do we setup an account at http://www.coinbase.com?


  171. GNC- I was reviewing tax returns most of the day, but not a single person here was crowing about GNC's 25% pop today! Am I the only one who jumped in on this a couple of weeks ago when it went below $7? I am probably about to cause it to drop , but I finally got a winner on the first try without having to wait for a six month recovery!


  172. GrenCoin – Thanks for the interest everyone. A tutorial on coin transaction mechanisms is probably in order – this is where I can help the most because I've spent a great deal of time over these past few years figuring all of this stuff out. I'm definitely a subject matter expert and so I should be conscientious to this when discussing in here (i.e., not be to flippant about stuff that's actually pretty tricky).

    Putting on my non-profit GreenCoin Foundation hat for a second, I just want to say that I appreciate your interest but I am not recommending coin purchases of any specific kind including of course GreenCoin. There are a bunch of coins out there and they all carry the same risk – 100% loss potential. My ultimate goal is one of education and teaching, and I hope you find some curious happiness and perhaps financial benefit as a result as I have, and so you can be your own crypto expert teaching others as this nascent and enigmatic global technology expands. With that disclaimer in mind, Phil emailed me directly and I'll touch base with him and then we'll come back with a game plan.

    GNC/craigs – I tore them down a few days ago and now everyone's scared of the wrath….. ;)


  173. BDC / Cryptos

     

    Take me as a follower!, I have a coinbase account but not funding it yet, perhaps will try ethereum buying 20 units, So will pay attention to your comments.


  174. Dollar at 99.50, is anyone taking a poke long here?


  175. CL- Does this expire today or tomorrow? Shows over 78k million barrels still open for May, so Phil are you still shorting this today into the inventory at 53 on the new front month? 


  176. Good morning! 

    Not much going on this morning, which is a good thing as it gives the market a chance to build a base.

    Not too much pressure on oil but still 78Mb left in May so there should be some selling, which makes $53 a good shorting line on /CL (tight stops).

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    May'17 52.36 52.62 52.24 52.56 07:17
    Apr 19


    -

    0.15 15620 52.41 78189 Call Put
    Jun'17 52.75 53.04 52.64 52.96 07:18
    Apr 19


    -

    0.11 79351 52.85 594772 Call Put
    Jul'17 53.12 53.37 52.99 53.31 07:17
    Apr 19


    -

    0.11 9087 53.20 220337 Call Put
    Aug'17 53.37 53.61 53.25 53.55 07:17
    Apr 19


    -

    0.09 7425 53.46 99308 Call Put
    Sep'17 53.58 53.82 53.49 53.75 07:18
    Apr 19


    -

    0.06 5334 53.69 189788 Call Put

     

  177. Spitting Cobra/Streth – Not that it's a real thing but it kind of already happened as those quick rising rallies that flatten tend to roll down moving forward.  All but the Nas have had good pullbacks and we need to watch Nas and EuroStoxx/DAX to see if we're breaking up or down from here:

         

    Dollar still a good long at 99.50 (/DX)

    I took the /KCN7 money at $1.46 since the Dollar is weak and a bounce should knock it down a bit. 

    $2.50 holding strong on /HG:


  178. Polls/StJ – Amazingly low numbers:

    "President Donald Trump continues to struggle, even among his most loyal supporters. Many of them would be hard pressed to see even a sliver of a silver lining in this troubling downward spiral," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 



    "President George W. Bush, who hit a negative 28 – 67 percent on May 14, 2008, had less support, but it took eight years, two unpopular wars and a staggering economy to get there." 



    52 percent of voters say they are embarrassed to have Trump as president, while 27 percent are proud and 19 percent don't feel either emotion. 

    American voters disapprove 70 – 21 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, compared to a 64 – 29 percent disapproval March 22. 

    "As President Trump's approval tanks, Congress, especially Republicans, follow right behind him," Malloy said. 

    Well, in the end, Trump may have been what we needed to finally take back control of Congress.


  179. Wow, I am starting to know what Phil is going to say, so even though I asked I took action ahead of his answers. Not so sure though that I am relieved to see his OK on these.  Short CL, went long KC and got out at 146.35 for a few hundred $ and went long DX at 99.50 for a tiny gain so far as well. 


  180. See Craigs, I'm not that smart – just put in my 10,000 hours sooner than you did!  wink


  181. Evening Phil, 5% Rule : Wanted to thank you for the links.  I will review often, after the Advil kicks in.