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Risky Wednesday – White House Turmoil Worries Markets

"Don't compare it to Watergate!"  

That is the GOP talking point du jour as an Army of Trump apologists storm the media to counter claims that President Trump asked the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, to shut down the federal investigation into Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, in an Oval Office meeting in February, according to a memo Mr. Comey wrote shortly after the meeting.  

The documentation of Mr. Trump’s request is the clearest evidence that the president has tried to directly influence the Justice Department and F.B.I. investigation into links between Mr. Trump’s associates and Russia. Late Tuesday, Representative Jason Chaffetz, the Republican chairman of the House Oversight Committee, demanded that the F.B.I. turn over all “memoranda, notes, summaries and recordings” of discussions between Mr. Trump and Mr. Comey.  Such documents, Mr. Chaffetz wrote, would “raise questions as to whether the president attempted to influence or impede” the F.B.I.

So you see, it's nothing like Watergate, where Nixon was attempting to "stonewall" the investigation – not impede.  Totally different this time…

The Watergate incident, like Russia meddling in the US election, took place during the time before the President took office and, like Watergate, Trumpgate is unfolding in May and will likely come to a head in the Summer.  In Nixon's case, the break-in happened in June of 1972, Nixon won by a landslide in November of 1972 and a year later, a defiant Nixon said "I am not a crook" and it wasn't until August 8th, 1974 when Nixon finally gave up, two weeks after Congress began impeachment proceedings.  

We're still waiting for this generation's "Deep Throat" to step forward and please, be careful if you Google that phrase!

Image result for nixon watergate doonesbury

Market-wise, the S&P was at 142 when Nixon was sworn in in January of 1973 and fell 39% to 86 by the time he resigned in August of 1974 as people's faith in the US economy deteriorated along with their faith in it's President.  We've all enjoyed the benefits of the "Trump Rally" with the S&P up 317 points (15%) but, as I noted yesterday morning (and 4 Tuesdays before that), 2,400 is a bridge too far for the S&P – no matter how much of Trump's economic BS you choose to believe. 

Our shorting lines for the Futures were S&P (/ES) 2,400, Dow (/YM) 21,000 and Russell (/TF) 1,400 and we got a $1,000 per contract drop on /ES, $800 per contract drop on /YM and $1,750 per contract drop on /TF.  As I said to our PSW Report readers yesterday:

Once again – we are going to be shorting the indexes at the levels we keep shorting them at and once again, later in the week, I will tell you how much money we made and you will say: "why can't I ever catch trades like that."  It's a vicious cycle…

Remember, I can only tell you what the market is going to do and how to make money trading it – that is the extent of my powers.

Playing the Futures is a good way to grab a quick hedge – especially when news moves against your position after hours – like this most recent scandal did.  In addition to our Futures shorts (which are great for making quick cash), we just reviewed our hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) and the Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) and we feel that we are adequately covered overall.  I will review index hedging in this afternoon's Live Trading Webinar at 1pm, EST.  

As you can see from the chart below, this incident has popped the VIX 15% overnight and that will be good for the VIX Short ETF bear put spread idea we shared with you in last Tuesday's PSW Report.  It's a little too early to get excited but that spread has a nice $31,000 (344%) upside potential, which would be a massive win for our Options Opportunity Portfolio, which began with just $100,000 in August of 2015 and we're hoping to hit our 2nd anniversary at over $300,000 – up 200% in two years.  You can follow the OOP at PSW or over at Seeking Alpha.

In fact, if you want a good laugh, read all the negative commentary I got at Seeking Alpha for daring to call a short on the Short VIX ETF because, as we know, things go up and up forever and never stop, right?  That's the problem with a lot of investing sites – they have people there who will talk you out of (or into) any trade and that tends to render them net worthless.  

Oops, even as I write this (9am), the markets are taking another leg down and the VIX is taking another leg up as investors are finally starting to realize there is no shiny city on Trump's hill.  

Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  


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  1. Morning everyone!

    It's webinar day! 1pm (Eastern). Join us here:

    http://philstockworld.enterthemeeting.com/m/QMQFJH3H


  2. Good Morning, 

    Phil – given the bearish thesis on oil after the holiday driving weekend, is there a SCO call spread trade you can recommend ?



  3. Phil – Russian Un-Dressing Gate – Our moniker, penned by William Safire, spoken by an inarticulate and later disgraced Agnew, comes from a distrust of big media, business, banks and brother. 

    Agnew resigned prior to Nixon, leaving succession to the Speaker of the House, one clumsy Gerald Ford, to the benefit of Chevy Chase.  We might not be so "lucky". As previously Nattered, Trump chose well in that nobody would want him out with Pence on deck. Hopefully Deep Throat has already In-Flynn-erated both Trump and Pence for immunity.  Alas, this would leave Paul Ryan and Out.


  4. Right now the markets would probably be less worried about Trump being removed from office than the fact that his agenda will now be stuck on Congress with all the investigations sure to arise. At this point, the GOP might want to just toss him overboard and start from scratch!


  5. Naybob – At this point, we should probably ask for new elections…


  6. Angel – Have you looked at the latest elections results in Germany. Right now it seems that Merkel might outlast Trump in power. She is doing much better than expected and bets are that she will retain her position. With Macron in France, that means that there are stronger chances of a hard Brexit! And Putin's position in Europe has been weakened probably. Overall this is probably good news for Europe. And Trump will arrive at the G7 badly damaged so not in a position to make any demands. Interesting times.


  7. Good Morning.


  8. "Flynnpeachment"….just a matter of time  :)


  9. Better get started on that wall, where's the money Mexico? Hahahahaha


  10. Risk on….. NAH, risk off.


  11. Trump/Stjean

    Since you are from Jersey, I'll bet you a dinner than Trump doesn't serve a full year of his term.  GOP is starting to turn.


  12. that not than


  13. Good morning!  

    Wow, just when we were forgetting what hedges are for…

    When the World Is Led by a Child

    Over the past week, the White House and the capital at-large have been embroiled in a seemingly never-ending series of scandals that have appeared to thrust President Donald Trump’s administration into chaos.

    At least things are exciting.

    Oil/Learner – Not this holiday – after July 4th we will go short, this week is the beginning of our LONG bias on oil, buying the dips and we already have a long USO play in the OOP that we just doubled down on (see yesterday's review).

    Big Chart – Watch that 1,380 line on the Russell and NYSE is back below 11,550 already – sad…

    Pence/Naybob – I don't think anything can be worse than Trump, not even Pence.  I think Pence will be little improvement and Ryan a bit better than that but most important would be to simply de-fang these jokers and that's already well underway.  

    Dip buyers coming in at the bell but let's see if the bounces are weak or strong.  

    2,381.875 is between the 27.5% (2,358.75) and 30% (2,405) lines on the S&P so that's the line to watch.  From a bounce perspective, we bottomed out exactly at -1% (2,376) so clearly a computer kicked in at that point.  24 down is 5 up (rounding) to 2,381 (weak) and 2,386 (strong) so that's the line we'll be watching for another failure. 

    Speaking of failure – /KC $130 so 2 more is 10 long at $133.07 for me and down $11K! 

    Major rally in Treasurys as Trump agenda teeters

    • The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to about its lowest level of the year – down 7 basis points this morning to 2.257%. Economy bulls may be mulling the stalling out of the GOP agenda of tax cuts and regulatory reform, given the mounting political troubles inside the White House.
    • U.S. stock index futures are down in the area of 0.65%, and the banks are lower by 1.5% or more across the board.
    • If the establishment succeeds in toppling Trump, or at least large swaths of the Trump agenda, the banks can likely kiss goodbye their hopes for regulatory reform.
    • Major stock index futures are down 0.5%, but the XLF is off 1.6%, the KBE 1.9%, and the KRE 1.6%.
    • Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are all down 1.5% or more.
    • Inflation in the eurozone rebounded to 1.9% in April, in line with the ECB's target of close to, but below, 2% inflation.
    • Higher transport, package holiday and heating oil costs were the biggest drivers of the increase.
    • The euro ticked higher against the dollar following the figures, with the currency climbing above $1.11, its highest level since Nov. 9.

    Gold, gold miners catch a bid amid Trump turmoil

    • Gold grinds higher following reports that Pres. Trump asked the FBI to end its investigation into his former security adviser, +0.9% at $1,248/oz., a two-week high; silver +1% at $16.92/oz.
    • "Safe-haven demand because of Trump and geopolitical tensions, especially arising out of North Korea's missile test, is lifting gold prices," says analyst Barnabas Gan at OCBC.
    • Gold miners are broadly higher in premarket trading: HMY +4%AU +3.7%KGC +2.4%IAG+2.3%ABX +1.6%SBGL +1.4%GOLD +1.3%GG +1.3%NEM +1.2%.

    Ford to cut salaried jobs in North America and Asia

    • Ford (NYSE:F) tells Bloomberg in an e-mailed statement that it sees 1,400 salaried positions in North America and Asia Pacific impacted by a job reduction initiative aimed at an overall reduction of 10% in the regions.
    • The company will use early retirement and special separation packages in lightening its workforce.
    • Previously: Ford planning major job cuts – WSJ (May 15)
    • -0.18% premarket to $10.92.
    • After a complaint from the German government over its test results, Handelsblatt has revealed that the European Union will launch a legal action against Italy and, specifically, its transport department.
    • It's frustrated at the lack of cooperation over defeat devices and for not vigilantly policing Fiat Chrysler's (NYSE:FCAU) emissions in the wake of the scandal that engulfed Volkswagen.
    • GNC Holdings (NYSE:GNC) breaks higher on some insider buying.
    • Interim CEO Bob Moran picked up 300K shares at an average price of $6.69 to boost his position to 953K shares.
    • SEC Form 4
    • GNC +4.52% premarket to $7.17.

    Target higher on earnings beat

    • Target (NYSE:TGT) reports comparable-store sales decreased 1.3% in Q1, driven by small declines in both traffic and basket size.
    • Digital channel sales grew 22% for the quarter.
    • Gross margin rate slipped 40 bps to 30.5%.
    • SG&A expenses rate +20 bps to 19.6%.
    • EBITDA margin rate squeezed 60 bps to 10.9%.
    • EBIT margin rate contracted 80 bps to 7.4%.
    • REDcard penetration rose 110 bps to 24.5%.
    • Number of stores +14 Y/Y to 1,807.
    • Q1 Guidance: Comparable sales: low single digit decline; GAAP and Adjusted EPS: $0.95 to $1.15.
    • FY2017 Guidance: Comparable sales: low single digit decline.
    • TGT +5.45% premarket

    Feds sue UnitedHealth for mischarging

    • For the second time in a month, the DOJ has sued UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH), accusing the nation's largest health insurer of obtaining over $1B from Medicare to which it was not entitled.
    • The complaint points to "risk adjustment" payments (based on inaccurate data submissions) and follows a lawsuit brought by former UnitedHealth executive Benjamin Poehling, whose whistleblower case was filed under seal in 2011.
    • Previously: Whistleblower says health insurers have bilked Medicare for years (May. 16 2017)

    Qualcomm files suit against Apple manufacturers

    • The complaint filed in the U.S. Court for the Southern District of California maintains that Apple manufacturers breached their license agreements with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and refused to pay for licensed technologies.
    • The suit names FIH Mobile (OTCPK:FXCNY), Hon Hai Precision (OTC:HNHAY), Pegatron (OTC:PGTRF), Wistron (OTC:WICOF), and Compal Electronics (OTC:CMPCY).

    "We were wrong" on Pandora – Goldman

    • Analyst Heath Terry and team expected Pandora (NYSE:P) to benefit from the growth in subscription music with the launch of on-demand service. Even if this missed, they expected the market to give credit for the value of Pandora's 100M users and 5B listening hours quarterly.
    • "Clearly, we were wrong," says Terry, pulling the stock from Goldman's Americas Conviction List after a 36% decline since it was put on the list in October.
    • Pandora, however, does remain a Buy at Goldman, with $16 price target suggesting more than 70% upside.
    • Source: Arie Shapira at Bloomberg

  14. Well, I doubled my IWM puts yesterday, so much that I had a $2 maintenance call this morning. I deposited $10, should cover it :)

    Wheeeeee!


  15. I'm still flat on /KC, as I think it will go down to 1.28 or lower again, but next time it hits 1.35 I'm going to short it instead!  Look at that chart, ripe for shorting!



  16. Not betting with your rustle as I would take the same side… Try Latch since he seems to thing that this is not that bad! Of course, all these guys defending Trump were on Bill Clinton's case when he talked privately to Lynch. Although he was not president then so no suspicion of influence of command which is what this is, not obstruction. 


  17. Lock him up! Lock him up! Lock him up!

    LOL


  18. Now Trump is fleeing the country with his daughter!  

    Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner to join president's Mideast, Europe trip

    Fund/Burr – Do you have to pay tax on that?  

    Paul Ryan says we can't deal with speculation and innuendo and then goes right on to make innuendos about Comey having an agenda…  Generally saying the GOP will continue to ram their agenda through Congress despite the investigations – what a trooper!



  19. What happened to Melania? Is she not allowed out in daylight? Is she being punished for messing up at the convention? Weird how she simply has disappeared along with Marla Maples. Weird how quiet Ivana is too. He must have ironclad contracts with all of them to keep their mouths shut.


  20. EIA Report: 

    • 1.8Mb draw in oil, way better than API, which showed 800Kb build. 
    • Gasoline down 400K, a 2Mb swing for the bulls there.
    • Distillates down 1.9Mb too.

    That's a bit better for the Bulls and $49.50 should be easy to get to but not $50 as something seems odd – we'll have to check "other oil" later.  


  21. Now AAA just announced a 12-year high number of travelers for the holiday weekend but it's only 1M more so even if it were 1M more cars and they all drove 300 miles that's maybe 15M gallons/42 = 357,000 more barrels – it's a silly statistic to let influence your thinking but people do so that's the trend we bet on.


  22. Phil the total petroleum inventories grew by 4.3 million barrels, so there is an awful lot of "other" oil out there it seems even with all the draws in the headline products.


  23. Could that cover asking the F.B.I. director to drop part of an investigation, and later firing him?

    In theory, yes. Such statutes were broadly drafted. Julie O’Sullivan, a former federal prosecutor who now teaches white-collar criminal law at Georgetown University, said the power relationship between a president and the F.B.I. director could elevate a request to shut down a case into an act that amounts to impeding an official investigation.

    “He really needs a lawyer,” Ms. O’Sullivan said of Mr. Trump. “He is building a beautiful case against himself.”

    “The evidence of improper purpose has gotten much stronger since the day of Comey’s firing,” Mr. Buell said. “Trump has made admissions about that. And we now have evidence that he may have indicated an improper purpose previously in his communications with Comey about the Russia investigation.”

    Both American presidents who were subjected to impeachment proceedings in the last century — Bill Clinton in 1998 and Richard M. Nixon in 1974 — were accused of obstruction of justice.

    I think I may have somehow caused all this by staying in Trump's hotel on Sunday…  cool

    Inventories/Craigs – Yes, we'll have to see what happened.  It's possible that it's not other oils but that the refineries pushed out a lot of finished product (faster than they drew in more oil) to top off tanks into the holiday weekend – there's a lot of distortions around major holidays. 


  24. Phil--we all know that you are a closet Trump fan!


  25. US bank shares dropped sharply on Wednesday in the latest indication that the ‘Trump trade’ that carried equities higher since November has begun to …


  26. No one wants to talk, and the silence is deafening.<p>Just about every day, the White House sinks deeper into scandal over President Donald Trump’s …


  27. Current D.C. turmoil is seen hurting Trump’s ability to keep his promises on fiscal and tax issues<p>The U.S. dollar sank Wednesday, on track to give back its postelection rally as confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to deliver on its economic proposals wanes.<p>The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, …


  28. <i>JEA</i><p>Jacksonville’s municipal electric utility, JEA and Florida Power & Light formally agreed Tuesday to retire the St. John’s River Power Park …


  29. Bruce Berkowitz recently released The Fairholme Funds 2016 Annual Report in which he discusses the current trend towards ETF investing and he …


  30. Anything we should be selling for premium while the vix is up?


  31. Things are beginning to unravel at the White House. Seth Meyers takes a closer look at the various fires burning in the Trump administration.<p>Posted …


  32. Phil/UUP

    double down on the UUP trade?

    Regards


  33. Musical selection for the day…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmGqbOxzAwg


  34. The chances have increased, according to British bookies, that President Donald Trump will leave the White House before his four-year term is over.<p>The bookmakers have seen a stream of bets that Trump will depart early after a report Tuesday that he asked the since-fired FBI director James Comey to …


  35. Solitary confinement is often used as punishment.<p>An immigrant detainee kept in solitary confinement for more than two weeks was found dead by suicide …


  36. The political mess in the U.S. is finally impacting U.S. and global markets and ‘Trumpquake’ should lead to a new bout of risk aversion.<p>”Those people …


  37. Supporters and opponents of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey engaged in a violent confrontation outside the Turkish embassy in Washington on Tuesday night. Nine people were injured and taken to a hospital, the District of Columbia’s fire and emergency medical services said on Twitter.<p>Photos …


  38. The political mess in the U.S. is finally impacting U.S. and global markets and ‘Trumpquake’ should lead to a new bout of risk aversion.<p>”Those people …


  39. Antibiotic resistanceThe grim prospect<p>The evolution of pathogens is making many medical problems worse. Time to take drug resistance seriously<p>From …


  40. MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin, deriding as “political schizophrenia” a furor in Washington over President Trump’s sharing of classified intelligence with Russia, said on Wednesday that he was ready to give American lawmakers “a record” of the Oval Office meeting between Mr. Trump and senior …


  41. Medical bills and home repairs can quickly eat into people’s emergency funds, but according to a new survey of American workers, even the smallest expenses can be a source of anxiety.<p>The survey, conducted by Bloomberg and the think tank New America, found 28% of people said any expense, even one as …


  42. Phil / CBI – Bouncing off 20 – I'm looking got adjust the following position which is about a 25% allocation for this  porsition

    BCS

    Long 45X '19 Jan 27.5 Calls (3.95 ) now 2.4

    Short 45X '19 Jan 35 Calls (1.7) now 1.1

    Long 20X '19 Jan 25 Call (4.69 now 7.4

    Was thinking of Buying the Jan '19 20s for 5 and keeping them naked for a bit or waiting for a week to see if 20 holds.   The next support line looks like about 16…. 

    I still think this is a 33 to 35 stock at end of '19…..

    Your advise is much appreciated 


  43. Democrats and Republicans, who already tend to place their trust in different news sources and rely on different outlets for political news, now …


  44. Meet the Bradley Foundation, giving the Koch brothers a run for their money.<p>The billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch get a lot of press coverage about their vast, conservative political spending network that helps elect right-wing officials at the federal, state and local levels and …


  45. Donald Trump’s administration was always going to end up in ashes.<p>The man elected president last November is a singularly corrupt and avaricious …


  46. Here’s the funny thing about canned tuna: Even as Americans lost their taste for the fish and demand dropped steadily for years, the price of a can seemed to hold steady or rise.<p>For some, it was an economic riddle.<p>“Given what was happening to demand, the price of tuna should have declined,” said …


  47. Over the past few months, a grim narrative has dominated reporting about the US auto industry.<p>The sky is about to fall. Profitless Tesla is on the verge of eating Ford and General Motors’ lunch, even as both legacy carmakers make billions, even as Americans continue to buy pickup trucks and …


  48. The S&P 500 large cap index was flat in March. Foreigners only purchased $876 million worth of U.S. stocks in that month.<p>Of late, they have been more …


  49. The scandals of the week are taking their toll on Donald Trump’s presidency.<p>A new poll by Morning Consult/POLITICO released on Wednesday found that only 42 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president. By contrast, half of all registered voters disapprove of the job that Trump …


  50. LONDON (Reuters) – The global economic, financial and political landscape has never been shakier, but the world’s rich are confident they can steer through the fog of uncertainty in the coming year “without so much as a dent in their finances”, a survey showed on Wednesday.<p>The findings of UBS …


  51. As another news leak out of Washington sullies the “Make America Great Again” sentiment that emerged in the wake of November’s election, by at least …


  52. Climate researchers are reviewing myriad studies of heat and human behavior, adding them up, and looking for sound conclusions about the relationship …


  53. Summer is always a popular time for travel, but that doesn’t mean a summer vacation has to cost a fortune. According to Skyscanner, domestic airfare is likely to be quite affordable this summer. “Overall what we’re seeing with domestic travel prices is that you can find deals for that sub-$300 and …


  54. In my presentation on risk, I discuss how we all focus on the wrong things: We fear large, emotional, visceral — and <b>statistically improbable</b> deaths. …


  55. The bond market is interpreting what could be the deepest crisis of Donald Trump’s presidency as throwing the Federal Reserve off its path for …


  56. Automakers are lining up to invest in hydrogen-powered vehicles, even though the big bucks are still being spent on battery-powered cars.<p>From an infrastructure standpoint, purely electric vehicles make more sense. There are 15,959 electric charging stations in the United States, but only 35 …


  57. The Future of Flying Cars: Science Fact or Science Fiction?

    Uber has shaken up the taxi industry and is trying to put driverless cars on our roads. Now the company aims to have flying ride-sharing vehicles in …


  58. According to a memo by former FBI Director James Comey, as described by <i>The New York Times</i> on May 16, President Trump wants reporters who publish classified documents arrested. “Alone in the Oval Office [during a private meeting with Comey on February 14], Mr. Trump began the discussion by …


  59. The Q1 report was released today: Household Debt and Credit Report.<br>From the NY Fed: Household Debt Surpasses its Peak Reached During the Recession in …


  60. Imagine where the markets would be if the dollar was not down 0.5%! It looks like the Trump rally got shot in the face!


  61. The political mess in the U.S. is finally impacting U.S. and global markets and ‘Trumpquake’ should lead to a new bout of risk aversion.<p>”Those people …


  62. The administration is arguing for courts to put the rule on hold. Environmental groups say that could mean effectively killing the rule.<p>Throughout …


  63. False Profits

    Posted by jasonzweig on Jun 23, 2015 in Articles & Advice, Blog, Featured, Posts |<p>Image credit: “Unclean Spirits Issuing from the Mouths of the …


  64. Target shares are on the move in early Wednesday trading following the release of first quarter financial results that were a surprise even to itself: earnings per share came in 20 cents above the high end of Target’s own guidance, sending the stock as much as 8% higher in Wednesday’s pre-market …


  65. F/Phil – a good day to sell a put or two?


  66. VIX/Tangled – I think this is the beginning of a proper uptrend.  None of this stuff will be resolved quickly. 

    GO /KC!  Finally…  

    UUP/Pat – They are June calls and we already spent $1,160 in the OOP so I'm not looking to DD this early.  I'd rather roll for time if we keep going down.

    CBI/Batman – It's in a disastrous free fall.  Just because it paused at a major support line ($20), doesn't mean it's a floor.  Even if you just track the drop from $30, $2 ($22) would be weak and $4 strong ($24) and anything less than that and you're still in a downtrend.  I don't understand why you trade such large positions in such odd ways.  The $27.50 calls are $2.40 but you have 20 months to hold them – there's no urgency here.  The short $35s aren't even 50% profit so all you'd be doing is paying the ridiculous premium if you buy them back.  If you REALLY intend to stick with CBI for the very long run, then rolling lower is your best investment.  The $22.50s are $4 so $1.60 to roll down $5 is a good deal.  After that, the $17.50s are $6.10 so $2.10 more and that you may as well wait and see if you can get $1.60 and, if you can't, then your position is in better shape.  

    Rather than add more longs, I'd consider selling some 2019 $20 puts for $4, which is what you bought the $27.50s for.  Add 1/2x of those and your spreads are free and then wait until 2020s come out to see if you want to adjust again.  And, if you are not willing to risk selling 2019 $20 puts for $4 – why on Earth would you be considering putting any more money into the stock?

    F/Scott – Sure, I like them down here and there's this:

    Wall Street is freaking out about a ‘Motown Slowdown’ — but the US auto industry is actually in fantastic shape


  67. BIOC hitting 1.40


  68. LOL, Trump got his Liberty commencement speech from "Legally Blonde".

    Jerry Falwell Jr., the president of Liberty University, praised the address, telling Fox News over the weekend that it was the “best commencement speech Liberty has ever had.”

    We're still in the weak bounce zone. 


  69. I'm in BIOC for the long haul.  If it hits 0.80 I'll buy more.  It's either going to $10 or $0 in my mind.


  70. Don't forget /KC stops trading about 1pm – I'm thrilled to get back to 5 longs at $133(ish) avg. 


  71. /KC – 1.30 pm EST close


  72. /KC > Okay Phil what did you do to /KC? :)


  73. /KC $134.7


  74. Thanks Ravis.  

    /KC/Aquila – At this rate, I might have to cash them all.  That's why I like to play these things, if I have a long-term bullish premise and it goes lower, I just buy more.  Not a complicated plan.  If I'm right about the Fundamentals, then it only takes a nudge to get things going my way again.  

    Same with the markets today, we're just seeing what happens when a thinly traded market gets bad news.  As I keep saying, there's very little real support at these levels so a month of gains vanishes in a day.  

    Damn, $135 on /KC makes it irresponsible not to cut back to 2 longs.  crying


  75. CTSH/dividend – TOS just informed me about the upcoming dividend (ex. div tomorrow). Should we be worried about exercise?


  76. I'd love to meet a professional coffee trader to figure out what the heck makes this thing tick.  


  77. CTSH goes ex dividend tomorrow and there is a short call position that could get assigned (Ameritrade says there is a fair chance).  So get assigned and owe the dividend.   So if that is likely what to do with the short call position (in the Butterfly I think)?


  78. Phil – TSLA – can we talk thru it on the call today? I still have the June 17 300 calls I sold at $15.5 – was thinking to roll.


  79. Took a long on /DX here @ 97.52.  Also took a long on /CL @ 49.15 expecting it to trend towards 50 with Opex today.


  80. Phil / CBI – Thanks for the feedback…  I'll go with adding some puts at 20 – if they hit the midpoint of their outlook at. 3.7 EPS at a 6 to 7 X multiple your at 22 to 26….  this is for 2017.


  81. CTSH/Daveo, Tangled – If they are going to take your stock to get an 0.15 dividend – let them!   A long as there is 0.15+ of premium left in the contract, they are doing you a favor and you simply re-establish the next day.   In the Butterfly Portfolio, we have 10 short June $60 calls we sold for $2 that are now $4.70 with CTSH at $64.66 so not much premium but if they exercise the option, they have to give us $60 and cancel the contract and no, we do not pay the dividend.  The company pays the dividend – either to us or to them, depending on the timing.  There is no possible timing in which they take the stock and we pay a dividend and the company pays them too.  Meanwhile, we would no longer be short a call but we'd be short the stock with $60 per share in our account so we buy the stock to cover the shorts for whatever (hopefully less ex-dividend) and then sell the Oct $62.50 calls for $4.70.  

    Coffee/Burr – The thing is there are dozens of grower reports every week and the same for consumption and it's a global crop but that's why I like it – because we see a long-term uptrend that's not likely to change while the short-term volatility gives us constant opportunities to buy low and sell high.  

    Google "Coffee Report" and read some of them.  You'll see those guys haven't got a clue for the most part.  Neither do most oil traders or gold traders, etc.  Just like equities, everyone has theories and systems and sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.

    TSLA/Latch – Sure just ask in conference chat.

    CBI/Batman – I'm going to be thrilled to add, all we have in the LTP are the short 2019 $25 puts we sold for $5.20 so this ($20) is our target bottom anyway.  

    Webinar time!  


  82. Burr – following your oil,  decided to short KC at 134.75


  83. Latch, my /CL is very short term.  Just looking for sushi money really.

    I'm also short some /ES here @ 2372.  

    I do have a July /CL that I'll hold and add like phunk master phil.


  84. thanks Burr .  watch out on ES.. I might have a little more down but I think its a storm in a teacup. The market just does not want to go down and its the media making all of the noise.


  85. GIS/Phil – tested lower low today. where do you think a value floor will be found?


  86. indexes today – standard one day dip that is no more than noise on the chart, or is this the start of a beautiful new direction?


  87. Good market analysis and maybe some insight in a possible new direction:

    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/05/markets-wake-up-to-trump/

    Donald Trump isn’t changing, he’s a 70-year-old man with the emotional intelligence and political acumen of a ferret smoking trucker speed. The policies he espouses are scattershot and then changeable, and he is fundamentally disinterested in anything that isn’t Donald Trump. His election gave us the “Trump Bump” which was bizarre, entertaining and wildly profitable for many, but then it seems like we forgot to correct for the data point that Donald Trump is the fucking President of the United States. 

    The market optimism that has defined his short presidency is not just illogical, it’s a circle jerk of self-harm that everyone knows isn’t real. Either the market has turned into a volatility-free solipsism in order to protect itself emotionally from reality or quants have used the most politically volatile period in American history since Reconstruction to create a dreamscape of Smart Beta plays.

    Or both. Or neither.


  88. Stj- i think you are very generous to refer to that as 'good market analysis"..


  89. S/Phil – very weak today.. I thought some kind of deal with TMUS is being talked about. I can only think that would bump S up a bit to a lot if a 'deal' is made?  


  90. SDS / Phil,

    SDS calls, I have June 13 calls @ 0.32 are we still suppose to hold on to the hedge ?

    Thanks

    Pat


  91. CTSH – Phil, this is what Ameritrade sent me about the CTSH dividend and this is exactly what happened with a similar PG short call position where I ended up short the stock and my account shows a debit of the dividend?

    "If you are assigned early on your short call position, this could create a short stock position in your account before the ex-dividend date. If you have a short stock position in a security paying a dividend, you would be required to pay the dividend amount for each share. "

    What am I missing?


  92. PCAR – hmmm.. write calls or add shares?


  93. Scott – Seems like an accurate reflection of where we stand!


  94. Done with /ES @ 2362.  Ty for the lunch $$.  


  95. Phil – Pence – "I don't think anything can be worse than Trump, not even Pence."

    Pence is an ex conservative radio and television show host from the 1990s.  Most recently, floated a draft in the current admin to incorporate religious freedom into juristic personhood (corporate personhood), allowing for full discrimination based on religious pretense, we spoke to those evils here.

    An evangelical, anti pro choice homo-phob, so lacking confidence in his own self control, he won't meet with other women without his wife as chaperone.  So Rush Limbaugh, Jerry Falwell and Jim Baker all rolled into one as President?  No thanks to this Theocrat. 

    Phil – "I think I may have somehow caused all this by staying in Trump's hotel on Sunday…"

    To complete a trifecta, all you probably have to do is darken the door of a local Grace Evangelical Church while wearing some Packer's gear. While kneeling on a pew, consume some Wisconsin cheddar, click your heels together and repeat three times "There's no place like DC, demonic Pubs I rebuke you" and the deal shall be sealed.  It will go no worse than this, which is what we might be in for if Pence gets in.  The farce is strong with you brother and Out.


  96. Tangledweb- if you are short the stock and a dividend is paid, you are on the hook for the dividend. Same happened to me in April on PG. I got dinged for the dividend when assigned on the short calls. 


  97. So we're left with 2 long /KC at $133 and 1 long /DX at 97.47 and one long /CLN7 at $49.50.

    I called a long /TF at 1,357.50 right at the end but just looking for a quick bounce and out if they fail 1,360

    GIS/Scott – Retail is dead, people don't eat anymore or buy paper towels…  cheeky  

    This ($56) is $32Bn and they made $1.85Bn last year so nothing wrong with this price.  They are good for about $3/share and not a lot of growth but nice and steady.  In the butterfly, we sold July $57.50 puts for $2.12 so $55 is where we expect a bottom to be (we sold $60 calls for $1.20).  As a stock position, you can sell the 2019 $50 puts for $3.20 – that's a nice deal and you can pair it with the $50 ($8.25)/$57.50 ($4.25) bull call spread at $4 and you have net 0.80 on the $7.50 spreads that are $6 in the money.

    Noise/Scott – I think it's waking people up to see there are risks out there.  Could cause a mood swing that lasts more than a couple of days.  

    And what StJ's quote says – OMG, Donald Trump is the President and this is not a TV show!  

    S/Scott – I have had no desire to touch them since the 90s.  If buying TMUS does for Sprint what buying VZ assets did for FTR… I'd wait and see…

    SDS/Pat – I don't think we officially added them anywhere but SDS is at $13.38 and it's a 2x ETF and the June $13s are 0.52 which means you can sell 1/2 and then you have 1/2 essentially free if you want.  Depends how much you need the insurance vs how much you'd like the cash back in your pocket. 

     

    CTSH/Tangled – That's true but the idea is you buy the short out right away and again – not hold them.  Even if you do, it's 0.15 on a $65 stock – it's not really going to move the needle.  

    Pence/Naybob – Oh, certainly a horrible person but not more horrible than Trump.  Anyway, he'd probably be great at fixing relations with Iran as they are cut from the same cloth.  


  98. This may be a little early, but I decided to sell 2 UVXY 2019 $60 calls for $3.60.  They were $2.30 yesterday.  


  99. Phil here is the full comment from the April 6th (10:45) update for AMZN:  AMZN – Well there's where $14,000 went to!  We can adjust these and we'll start by selling 2 July $900 calls for $50 ($10,000), leaving the short April $850s for now, so double short.  The $880 puts are essentially worthless but let's buy back the 3 April $850 puts ($1.85 = $555) and take the 3 April $880 puts ($6 = $1,800) and roll them to 5 May $920 ($41)/$890 ($26) bear put spread at net $15 ($7,500).   So, on the whole, we're pocketing $3,745 on the adjustment and we've effectively doubled down on the spread (now $15,000 potential) and our net cash outlay is a $2,360 credit so our potential upside is now $17,360, which would be a $31K turnaround from where we are now – if all goes well.


  100. CSCO reports after the close.


  101. AAPL below $150…this sell-off has conviction.


  102. Phil/SVXY,

    Has it gotten ahead or is there a trade that can still be done now? your setup was perfectly timed!!

    thanks and regards


  103. VIX is up some 35 % today.  This should be beneficial for selling option premiums.


  104. Could be closing at the lows… 


  105. Phil, on CTSH the June57.5 put only has .05 of premium left, should we close it out and sell some more premium while the IV is up?  Say the Oct62.5 put?


  106. Volumes slightly higher than average:


  107. Weak bounces are failing – very bad close. 

    UVXY/Palotay – What a move!  

    AMZN/Options – Well we have the 2 short July $200s open and we have the May $920/890 spread open.  Not sure what you think is missing.  Maybe it's because, during the Webinar, we were looking at the April position (before we changed it) and not the current one?

    Short Call 2017 21-JUL 900.00 CALL [AMZN @ $948.74 $-17.33] -2 4/10/2017 (65) $-10,140 $50.70 $14.83 n/a     $65.53 $-12.48 $-2,965 -29.2% $-13,105
    Long Put 2017 19-MAY 920.00 PUT [AMZN @ $948.74 $-17.33] 3 4/22/2017 (2) $11,520 $38.40 $-36.99     $1.41 $1.24 $-11,097 -96.3% $423
    Short Put 2017 19-MAY 890.00 PUT [AMZN @ $948.74 $-17.33] -3 4/10/2017 (2) $-7,905 $26.35 $-25.77     $0.59 $0.49 $7,730 97.8% $-176

    AAPL/Learner – I would have thought $150 would put up more of a fight.  

    SVXY/Pat – I don't know what it is at the moment but we got in at net $9K and it pays $40,000 if all goes well.   If you can still get in around $10K, then still pays 3:1.

    VIX/Albo – Not so beneficial if we've been selling them anyway but a good time to think about selling some long puts.  

    CTSH/Jr – I will update the Butterfly Portfolio tomorrow.  I'm pretty sure the VIX will still be up.


  108. Thanks Phil, it probably will be.


  109. wow – TF gives it up and fails 1360. Appreciate the line calling Phil. Helped me make mcmuffin money after down $1k for 20minutes. Now that it failed, we can expect another day of the same, so I will hold one short at 1356.  I think the Asia market will trade it down overnight.


  110. Phil;  Re AMZN  So on the April 850 shorts, those would have been exercised for a $50 loss??  Also, the message does say that you moved to 5x 920/890 put spread not 3x


  111. CSCO no help with weak guidance.  

    Asia/Latch – Yeah, they should wake up and panic – /NKD down 2% to gap them lower at the open.  We're likely not done, the Nas and RUT fell 2.5% in a day and stopped at the lows so, even if we slow down and they drop 1.25% and 0.625% tomorrow and Friday – that's still pretty much a 5% correction in 3 days.  If we accelerate to the downside tomorrow (more than 2.5%), we'll actually have to add more hedges already. 

    AMZN/Options – At the time, we had 3 April $880/850 bear put spreads and we also had 2 short April $850 calls we had sold for $18.  We bought back the $850 puts and rolled the $880 puts but ended up with 3 not 5 – it's been that way for a month so I'm not going to change it now.  Hopefully AMZN has another 2 days like today and we'll be in the money.


  112. JO and GNC, the new Momo’s ????


  113. So FXP should do well tomorrow. I am still in the May spread.


  114. The political mess in the U.S. is finally impacting U.S. and global markets and ‘Trumpquake’ should lead to a new bout of risk aversion.<p>”Those people …


  115. Cyberattacks cost companies an estimated half a trillion dollars in damages every year. The main reason they can harm companies to such a staggering degree is that today’s cybersecurity systems use centralized monitoring, with little beyond their main firewalls to protect the rest of an …


  116. For months, traders have been wondering what it would take to shake confidence in a record-breaking market that has seemed immune to presidential scandal.<p>After all, investors piled into the markets after President Donald Trump’s election victory — betting on anything and everything that could …


  117. View photos<p>Everyone these days seems to have one word on the tip of their tongue: Watergate.<p>In the 1970’s, the U.S. stock market endured one of the …


  118. The number of homes for sale in America has been falling steadily for the past year, but the situation is apparently getting much worse as spring …


  119. At the I/O developer conference last year, Google debuted its first chip. The company kept the component mostly for internal artificial intelligence …


  120. Ever since the dot-com and housing bubbles popped in 2000 and 2008, spotting bubbles has become a national obsession. Investors have spotted bubbles …


  121. In addition to launching in Italy through three banks, Apple Pay is continuing to complete its roll out in the United States. More than two dozen new institutions around the United States join Apple Pay plus one new addition in Mainland China. You can find the latest banks to join Apple Pay’s …


  122. Stocks could potentially fall 15 – 20% before climbing further as the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) diverges from the main Dow Jones …


  123. LB with a nice beat.  Target beat this morning.  I'm feeling a bit better about our heavy allocation in retail.


  124. Story Highlights<p>26% say their job will be eliminated due to technology within 20 years<br>• 13% say their job is in danger within five years<br>• College …


  125. Bigmouth strikes againDonald Trump and the shadow of Watergate<p>Fresh scandals put the presidency in crisis, but not at risk of an impeachment<p>United …


  126. While President Donald Trump’s White House grapples with the fallout from his firing of the former FBI director, Vice President Mike Pence has taken …


  127. Republican leaders were still pitching their plans to overhaul the health-care system and tax code Wednesday, despite a steady stream of chaos from …


  128. Rather than an inquiry focused narrowly on criminal conduct, the way to resolve questions swirling around President Trump and his associates is to impanel an independent commission.<p>Careful what you wish for.<p>In the wake of the firing of FBI Director James Comey, many are demanding a special …


  129. US News 3 minutes ago<p>In a statement, the Dept. of Justice confirmed it has appointed Robert Mueller as special counsel to oversee the investigation …


  130. Sedgwick was on the brink before legal weed came along<p>Just seven years ago, the town of Sedgwick, Colorado was about to give up completely.<p>With the economy struggling and weeds growing out of abandoned gutters, the place was like a ghost town. The residents held a meeting to decide whether to …


  131. U.S. anti-terrorism officials met for four hours Wednesday in Brussels with their European counterparts who are resisting a proposed expansion of a …


  132. XUZHOU, China — As China plans to build a raft of roads, rail lines, ports and airports across Asia, Africa and Europe, skeptics say Chinese companies will be the only real winners from the ambitious initiative.<p>General Electric disagrees.<p>In 2014, Chinese construction and engineering companies …


  133. KIEV —A month before Donald Trump clinched the Republican nomination, one of his closest allies in Congress — House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy — made a politically explosive assertion in a private conversation on Capitol Hill with his fellow GOP leaders: that Trump could be the beneficiary of …


  134. Phil,

     Are you shorting /TF or /ES overnight?


  135. Another day, another example of those no ties to Russia.<p>Alexander Shnaider, a Russian-Canadian developer who built the 65-story Trump International …


  136. News organizations and free speech groups reacted with outrage and defiance on Wednesday to a report that President Trump had asked the former F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, to consider jailing American journalists who published classified information about the government.<p>Mr. Trump’s suggestion, …


  137. How the Dollar Rally Unraveled

    The currency surged after President Donald Trump was elected, but it is on track to give back its gains<p>The U.S. dollar is set to erase the postelection rally that sent the currency to its highest level since 2002, one of the clearest signs that investors have lost faith in the so-called Trump …


  138. He spent more time schmoozing with the New England Patriots last month.<p>Here are some of the things Donald Trump is happy to do for longer than 15 …


  139. WASHINGTON — As crisis swirls around President Trump, his most fervent supporters are building their own parallel dimension to run alongside the “mainstream media” account: Enemies from within have launched a “deep-state” smear campaign, news organizations are acting with ulterior motives, and the …


  140. (Reuters) – Alphabet Inc’s (GOOGL.O) Google said on Wednesday it would make its digital assistant available on Apple Inc’s (AAPL.O) iPhone, making a play for the higher end of the smartphone market and challenging Apple’s Siri feature on its own devices.<p>The announcement heralds a step by Google, …


  141. VIPs can live their best celebrity lives away from the festering nightmare of traveling coach<p>Today, the Los Angeles International Airport opens its new luxury terminal, one designed to cater to the jet-setting lifestyles of the rich and famous. The members-only terminal, dubbed “The Private Suite,” …


  142. <i>LinkedIn Influencer T. Boone Pickens originally published this post on LinkedIn.</i><p>This time of the year makes me look to those of you at universities and high schools across this country who are eager for new worlds to conquer.<p>I have spoken to tens of thousands of college graduates over the years, …


  143. The right-wing news network refuses to even mention Trump’s recent scandal on chyrons<p>As conservative writers — such as Ross Douthat — begin to discuss President Donald Trump’s potential impeachment, right-wing media behemoth Fox News is still trying to provide cover for the White House.<p>Sean …


  144. Out of context, Colbert completely agrees with President Trump on one thing<p>Four months into Trump’s presidency, Stephen Colbert has long been fed up with Republicans’ excuses for Trump. But few things are more frustrating in times of crisis than total hypocrisy from the other side.<p>“Right now, …


  145. The marijuana industry is growing so fast that if the government legalized it nationally it would outsell ice cream. A new report from Marijuana Business Daily estimates that the total demand for marijuana, including the black market, is $45-$50 billion.<p>Annual ice cream sales are only $5.1 billion. …


  146. I've got 1 short /TF at 1355. Not looking for a big win, but think we'll squeak out a few bucks on it. 


  147. Funny, I've got 1 /ES long @ 2358 with a hidden stop @ 2354.5.  My rational is that there is going to be a small bounce before another down day.


  148. 6 reasons to buy FTR

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4074228-6-reasons-frontier-communications-buy

    Of course this is a Phil pick :)

    "Frontier Communications (NYSE:FTR) has just recently hit a 34-year low of $1.20."


  149. For the 3 or 4 members here every morning who start their morning with Trump bashing 

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/artists-impression-mainstream-media-week


  150. Burr- picking up pennies in front of a steam roller?  The bounce was at 3pm ET and failed. 


  151. Well my other system triggered a sell on /ES so I closed it out @ 2361.  Made enough for a bottle of clase azul.  I'm just bored before my tennis match :_


  152. So far Burr is right, and I'm down a few bucks. This is one of those times that I ought not to play. I'm keeping it smal, so no biggie if I'm wrong. 


  153. FTR/Burr – great article, thanks! My buy of FTRPR nets out to 1.12 price on FTR at conversion, and down here, under $1 is sweet. Might have to buy another round.. 


  154. cryptos packing on multi-billion dollar valuations in just days (hours even). Look at Ripple!. And NEM today. It's nuts. Certainly we're in a bubble but how long and how far it goes before it pops no one knows.


  155. 1971- a movie to see, and seems quite relevant this week..

    https://www.1971film.com/


  156. Life without President Donald Trump? On Wall Street, that idea is being bandied about increasingly of late, as the commander-in-chief has seen his credibility as leader of the free world assailed relentless over the past weeks, ultimately spurring Wall Street stocks into their worst tailspin in …


  157. WASHINGTON — Republicans on Wednesday abruptly pivoted and rushed to call on James B. Comey, who was fired as F.B.I. director by President Trump last week, to testify before several committees, produce memos and provide greater detail of his encounters with the president.<p>After days of showing …


  158. The Path To Low Emission Power Generation In The U.S.

    , Mitsubishi Heavy Industries<p><b>Carnegie Mellon Power Index shows 24 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions intensity from U.S. power plants since 2005.</b><p>As the way we generate electricity changes, so do the associated greenhouse gas emissions. After over a decade of growth, 2016 was the first …


  159. <b>Jefferies</b> has downgraded the China-listed A-shares of <b>Sinopec</b> and <b>PetroChina</b> after cutting its oil price forecasts.<p>The broker reduced its forecast for …


  160. Unlike others in its sector, such as<b>Palo Alto Networks</b> (NYSE: PANW), <b>FireEye</b> (NASDAQ: FEYE) isn’t sitting idly by as revenue declines. Last quarter may have been disconcerting to some as sales slowed to the low single digits, and based on CEO Kevin Mandia’s guidance for the current quarter, …


  161. TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s economy grew in the first quarter at its fastest pace in a year to mark the longest period of expansion in a decade, thanks to robust exports and a helpful boost from private consumption.<p>Positive data issued on Thursday should offer some relief to Bank of Japan …


  162. In the age of cyber threats, companies are stockpiling digital currency in preparation of future “ransomware” attacks — which have grown exponentially over the past few years.<p>The most recent attack, known as “WannaCry,” took hundreds of thousands of computers’ data files hostage unless users paid a …


  163. Almost 40,000 AT&T workers plan to go on strike on Friday if they don’t reach an agreement with the company for new contracts.<p>The Communications …


  164. Growth in China’s new home prices slowed further in April when compared to a year prior, particularly among top-tier cities, but new official data …


  165. SAN JOSE, Calif. – Cisco Systems Inc. said Wednesday that it is laying off 1,100 more workers, deepening job losses at the internet gear maker battling declining revenue.<p>The new round of layoffs comes on top of the 5,500 jobs Cisco announced it was cutting in August. That amounted to about 7 …


  166. <b>(CNN) —</b> They don’t call KLM “Royal Dutch Airlines” for nothing.<p>King Willem-Alexander, reigning monarch of the Netherlands, revealed in an interview with Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf that he’d regularly flown flights for a subsidiary of the Dutch flag carrier for over two decades.<p>Calling the …


  167. It was just over two months ago – well before VIX hit its record stretch of nearly 20 days below 11 – when we first discussed why one of the major …


  168. Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin downgrades stock to “Sell” and reduces price target by 40%.<p>Projected decrease in Wal-Mart shipments, poor earnings …


  169. Valeant’s Revenue Growth Is At Risk

    Valeant is facing intense generic competition.<p>Teva launched a generic version of Valeant’s diabetes drug: Glumetza.<p>Valeant and Actavis agreed to …


  170. Heartened by Merkel's steady performance, then Macron's election in France while confused by the US political situation, I started trading Euro vs. Dollar exclusively and increased my trading account by 140% over the course of  the last six months.

    No one more surprised than I.  And it's still working – if anything, it works better every time Trump opens his mouth. "It is an ill wind indeed that blows no one good."


  171. Good morning!

     Good trade to be making, ZZ.  

    Europe looks like it's opening down a bit  but Asia is only down half a point and our futures are up a tiny bit. Apparently appointing a special prosecutor has calmed things down.   Now it's a question of what kind of bounce we get. 


  172. Phil – "Pence/Naybob – Oh, certainly a horrible person but not more horrible than Trump.  Anyway, he'd probably be great at fixing relations with Iran as they are cut from the same cloth."

    ROFLMAO, Bravo, that earns a 10. 


  173. /CL dropped like a rock —  going for a ride long /CL 48.58


  174. 6:22AM EST – Nikkei and DAX down 1%; VIX popping; bond's got a bid, dollar sideways, copper, coffee, WTI, Brent all taking a 1-2% dips.  

    JPY/USD from 05/10 115 (114.38) resistance retrace now back to 110.38, most of that since midday 05/16.   Eyes on 108.64 zone closely, downside there extends downtrend since 12/16/16 at 118.38 with possible retrace to 100 level.  If conditions get nasty, this is the "go to" carry for funding liquidity and Out.


  175. I took the money and ran on last night's /TF short. Added 1 /CL long at 48.55, to avg 49.05 on 2. 


  176. Burr/Scott – FTR – This comment regarding their cash flow and on hand capital bears scrutiny. Pun intended.


  177. Now we're getting the follow-through we expected.  Europe down about 1% and at the lows of the day.

    /RBN7 getting interesting at $1.57 – same holiday premise.

    I'm adding 2 more oil so 3 long at $48.93 and back to 2 when even.

    $3.20 has been a good spot to go long /NG too.  NGV7 is at $3.35.

    Today's /NG report likely to have a "surprise" draw because they never count on pools opening up.

    Good call on oil Joseph, Jeff. 

    FTR/Naybob – You can say that about anyone with debt – "But what if they default, what if rates go up…"  

    They spent $8.5Bn, which added now $6Bn (70%) to their debt (as they've already made $2.5Bn back) which has increased their revenues by $3.4Bn (62%) and cash-flow is up 0.54/share (45%) and they haven't even begun to realize ANY integration benefits – only the pain in the first year.  The cash-flow and revenues will remain elevated ($1.74/share on 1.2Bn shares) and the debt will eventually go away and you'll be left with a typical phone company that cranks out money quarter after quarter.  These negative articles are written to scare the retailers out of the stock while the patient money loads up for the long haul. 

    You say VZ is so smart but there was a time when VZ was expanding to challenge T and looked like a debt bomb too.  People said the same thing about them at the time – this is the same playbook being run on FTR.  

    Frontier Communications to Present at J.P. Morgan Global TMT Conference


  178. Kc getting smoked. 

    Latch, hope u kept that kc short!


  179. Anyone playing the indexes short?