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Throwback Thursday – Russians, Russians Everywhere and a President Who Doesn’t Think

Image result for communist witch huntLet the witch hunt begin!  

Direct from Central Casting we now have former FBI Director, Robert Mueller III playing the role of Special Counsel to investigate what the President alleges are non-existent ties between Russia and Team Trump as well as to determine the extent to which Russia worked to undermine the US elections.  

A lot of people are saying if we end up impeaching Trump then Pence will become President but if we're impeaching Trump because the Russians helped him steal the election – why would we then put his running-mate in charge?  I guess we'll cross that bridge when we come to it but clearly Mike Pence couldn't get elected dog catcher in 80% of this country.  Even now, when I went to the Wikipedia page to check on some Pence facts, I am reminded of the fact that the people had already spoken and they did not vote in favor of him or Trump:

America is one of the only remaining countries on the planet that doesn't elect their leaders using the popular vote and look what a mess we have already – just 112 days into Trump/Pence.  Clearly the markets were not pleased with the speed at which this Administration is coming apart at the seams and, of course, as toppy as they were – they were ripe for a nice fall anyway.  

A fall is certainly what we got yesterday, with both the Nasdaq (QQQ) and Russell (IWM) falling over 2.5% on the day.  According to our 5% Rule™, it it more likely we follow through for another 2.5% drop today and tomorrow than recover and that suits us just fine as we're bearish anyway (and congrats to all who used our bearish index hedges or SVXY hedge from Tuesday morning's PSW Report, which you would never miss by subscribing here).  

For the morning, we're looking to see if we get a weak bounce off yesterday's drop and, in the Futures, the Nasdaq (/NQ) fell from 5,700 to 5,550 which is 150 points so the bounce should be 20% of the drop or 30 points, back to 5,580 for a weak bounce and then 5,610 would be a strong bounce and over that line we can say we're putting all this nonsense behind up and, failing that – look out below!  

You can see how the weak bounce into the close yesterday failed and gave us a lower low, that's those Pavlovian "buy the dippers" who think every pullback is just another buying opportunity and, so far, that's what hit has been during the Trump Error.  At this point, however, we're looking for a more proper correction of 5-10% but we took the short-term 2.5% money off the table and now we patiently wait to see if the bounce lines fail or not.  

The way it works for our Futures hedges (our index hedges remain in place regardless – see yesterday's Live Trading Webinar for details) is we "Short the Laggard", which means we set 5 watch lines and, once 3 are crossed to the downside, we short the next two with tight stops and if ANY of the 5 get back over the line – we stop out with a quick loss.  The lines we're playing today and tomorrow are:

  • Dow (/YM) 20,500 with 20,600 (weak) and 20,700 (strong) bounce lines.
  • S&P (/ES) 2,350 with 2,360 (weak) and 2,370 (strong)
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,550 with 5,580 (weak) and 5,610 (strong) 
  • NYSE (no futures) 11,400 with 11,450 (weak) and 11,500 (strong) 
  • Russell (/TF) 1,350 with 1,360 (weak) and 1,370 (strong) 

This is very much a bot-driven sell-off so we can expect our 5% Rule™ to be obeyed but that means it is far more likely we leg down to Dow (/YM) 20,000, S&P (/ES) 2,300, Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,400 and Russell (/TF) 1,300 and THEN we'll see if we get any bounces.  By the way, the amount of the strong bounce in stage one is the amount of the weak bounce in stage two so we could predict, for instance, that the S&P will find support at 2,320 on the way down as that will be the weak bounce line off 2,300.  

You can see how we used the 5% Rule in June of 2014 to accurately predict the next two years worth of index moves in "Charts from the Future – Updating our Big Chart".  Once we have a correction, it will be time to update our charts again but first – we're going to give this long-overdue pullback a chance to play out.  As you can see from yesterday's close on our Short-Term Portfolio, it didn't take much of a dip for us to gain 37% ($37,423) since our Tuesday review, when I said to our Members:

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  Another month another $24,000 in losses at $426,277 but the LTP has made a BOATLOAD of money.  I don't know how much exactly because SLW is screwed up but we were at $1,297,315 on April 9th and now, without SLW, which was a big winner, we're still at $1,345,something.  So, all in all, our paired portfolios are performing perfectly and the STP is costing us right about 1/3 of our gains – exactly as it should be doing.

The key is whether or not the STP keeps us in neutral on the way down but, sadly, there's no way to tell BECAUSE THIS RIDICULOUS MARKET NEVER GOES DOWN!!! 

We finally got our wish and got a live test of a market pullback and we did a quick review of the Long-Term Portfolio in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar.  So far, it's holding up well at $1,326,538 so we lost about $18,something while the STP, which hedges it, gained $37,something.  That is EXACTLY how our hedges are supposed to work and, if we get them just right, we actually make net money (+$19,000ish, in this case) in both directions.  Why, because, underneath each bet we are BEING THE HOUSE and selling premium to suckers who are betting on more extreme moves than the ones we're hedging against.  

Speaking of hedges, it's very last minute with options expiring tomorrow but you're welcome for last month's quick hedging ideas:

  • 30 S&P Ultra-Short ETF (SDS) May $13 calls at 0.30 ($900) are now 0.45 ($1,350) – up $450 (50%)
  • Oil ETF (USO) July $12 calls are still 0.10 and we still like them.
  • Oil Futures (/CL) at $48.50 are now $48.85 – up $350 per contract.  
  • 10 Gasoline ETF (UGA) July $24/27 bull call spreads at net $1.30 ($1,300) are now $1.50 ($1,500) – up $200 (15%) 
  • Gasoline Futures (/RB) at $1.55 are now $1.58 – up $1,260 per contract.  

These are just the free samples folks, this morning report is perhaps 20% of what we do inside every day at Philstockworld – just a simple overview of the markets so we can get ready for our trading day.  I'll see you inside for some more trade ideas or I'll see you tomorrow, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Gave back on month of trading in one day! Maybe we are starting the Trump rally now – on the downside!


  2. Good Morning. 


  3. Where is Joe McCarthy (a republican) when you need him???  :)


  4. Pence / Phil – Clearly the guy is as tainted as Trump. The story that came out last night was also that Flynn told the transition team (led by Pence) that he was under investigation by the FBI. And yet, he was still named NSA having access to our nations top secrets! There is incompetence and there is malevolence.

    Unfortunately, I don't see a quick resolution because as I said yesterday and as others have mentioned since then, the GOP is now in the clutch of the Trump supporters. He still commands the majority of their base and these supporters might be swayed by a more populist message from the Dems led by Bernie or Libby! And that would be disaster for the GOP which is clearly now a minority party saved only by years of gerrymandering. Ryan and McConnell are now riding the tiger they thought they had by the tail. So it looks like we stay in constitutional crisis mode for a while and nothing will get done! Markets don't like uncertainty.


  5. Dumb q, but why didn't Clinton leave office when he was impeached? Or is the various types of impeach ?


  6. Burr – Announcing Impeachment is just the start of the process….


  7. Roger Ailes Dead….


  8. Nice run these past 24hrs.  Got out of KC at 135 to 131 for $1.1, Out of 2 /TF at 1359 to 1351. Will cool my jets  – still think this is a BTFD moment, not a correction.


  9. Comparisons between Nixon and Trump:

    http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/05/17/quick-takes-nixon-was-a-smoother-criminal-than-trump/

    “I actually think the comparisons at this point obscure more than they reveal. Nixon was just so shrewd, so strategic: it’s simply inconceivable he would get caught with his pants down implicating himself on the record, like Trump now does almost daily,” Rick Perlstein, the author of “Nixonland,” told me. “My favorite Nixon maxim was ‘Never get mad unless it’s on purpose.’ But the words ‘on purpose’ and ‘Donald Trump’ now feel like matter and antimatter; with him, it’s all impulse. 

    “Both, of course, were authors of their own predicaments,” Perlstein went on. “But Nixon was so much the smoother criminal: everything was buffered through intermediaries and cutouts.


  10. "President Michel Temer of Brazil might have paid potential witness to remain silent in graft probe, according to O Globo . 

    Because of this, BRZU, the 3X Brazil ETF is down 50%.  Put on a small trade, looking for a bounce.

    Very speculative !


  11. Clinton / Burrben – He was acquitted by the Senate!


  12. Ailes / 1020 – Ding, dong…


  13. stjean – That's why the Watergate investigation lasted 18 months and it was the tape recordings that Nixon had made that led to his resignation….


  14. …hard not to smile… :)  


  15. Phil, 

    my CTSH butterfly short call got assigned. my cost basis is $60.  Thoughts?  Perhaps hold the short position and ride this market sell off.


  16. I now understand the people who watch NASCAR just for the big crashes – it feels that way with this administration now. My guess is that CNN and MSNBC are killing it with audience now. Fox was probably showing old footage from the Clinton impeachment last night.


  17. Ahh so he was impeached but found not guilty.   


  18. …getting the popcorn ready…


  19. Latch good job on KC. That thing just won't stay up. Going long here at 1.30ish?


  20. I guess you still need luck when you invest – like when you were born:

    https://ofdollarsanddata.com/bad-investment-results-your-birth-year-may-be-to-blame-94feb68e7ee4

    But can be mitigated:


  21. Morning everyone!

    Yesterday's Webinar replay is now live!

    https://youtu.be/47mD-69v9U4



  22. Burr – thanks I want to go long KC per Phil but I will wait a bit, I think it wants to go 128ish again.. Same with CL, I can't go long yet


  23. BRZU – Sold 1/2 up 3.5  points.  Stop at entry on other 1/2.


  24. FU NG!


  25. BRZU – Stopped out of other 1/2. Put trade back on 1.5 points below stop.  Probably should leave well enough along, but going back to the well.


  26. Scalped another 3.5 points on BRZU.  Sold 1/2.  Stop at 22.


  27. Good morning!  

    If only this guy were our President, I'd be so much more relaxed:

    Philly Fed was huge at 38.8, that's helping the markets a bit.  Europe still down 1% but coming off the floor:

    Dollar holding 97.50 at the moment.  

    /KC failed $130!  Great buying opportunity for those with strong stomachs.  

    Big Chart – Of course we need to take back Nas 5,600 in the very least.  Dow 20,650 and, of course, our bounce lines in the above post.  Have to remain skeptical until NYSE takes back 11,550 – far away now.  

    Clinton/Burr – Because the impeachment was generally BS and even though the Reps controlled the House and Senate at the time (the first act of the new Congress was to impeach him, which is what will happen to Trump in Jan 2019 – if he lasts that long) - they had no real case (kind of like Bengazi).  In Nixon's case, he resigned so he could be pardoned or he would have gone to jail because, like Trump, he directly interfered with a Federal Investigation.

    In Clinton's first term, the Dems had Congress 258/176 and 57/43 in the Senate but the GOP took the 1994 election 230/204 and 53/47  in that "Contract with America" BS.  Currently they have 52/46 in the Senate and 241/194 in the House – will be easier to flip now than it was back then.  

    Ailes/1020 – Yeah, Joe on CNBC was almost in tears.  

    Anger/StJ – And he's tweeting away this morning:

    With all of the illegal acts that took place in the Clinton campaign & Obama Administration, there was never a special councel appointed!

    This is the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!

    I have been asking Director Comey & others, from the beginning of my administration, to find the LEAKERS in the intelligence community…..

    Yeah, it's the leakers that are the problem, not the fact that you have stuff you don't want leaked…

    Brazil/Albo – Wow, I know in the 80s, you couldn't do a thing there without bribing someone.  Doubt it's any different today.  They did bottom out at 30 on EWZ during the last scandal so $32 is not a bad place to start looking for a long trade. 

    CTSH/Learner – And they are down 0.10 today so no real effect if you buy them back (as we expected).  If you stay short, you aren't being the house, you're now betting on CTSH to go lower.  I do think they should correct but I'd rather sell the Oct $62.50 calls for $4.80 which is net $67.30 for my short position rather than being short the stock at $64.40.  Since you had $60 deposited in your account, if you sell the call and buy back the stock – you pocket 0.40 for your troubles and you've moved the strike on your short calls up $2.50 (and you still have the original cash in pocket).  Or you can turn it into a gamble.  

    For the purpose of the Butterfly Portfolio, we don't tend to gamble – that's not how we run that portfolio.  

    NASCAR/StJ – Good analogy!  

    Image result for nascar crash animated gif

    Decade/StJ – Interesting but yes, buying after a crash is generally the best way to go.   I like that Big 5 chart – almost $3Tn for 5 companies is pretty good!  That's about 4% of the Global GDP.


  28. I was really bummin about Chris Cornell dying until I heard Rodger Ailes also died.  Now happy and sad!


  29. I really wish POTUS would learn to spell.


  30. I'm all out of /CL with a nice gain on this run. I'll look to add 1 at 49 if it holds, but would really like to add at 48.50 or lower. So, now I'll wait. 


  31. Trump and his hubris has led to this special counsel.  He still doesn't realize that Twitter is his worst enemy.  Right now, his lawyers should be advising him to shut the hell up but he cannot help himself.  He's an addict.  And talk about pure stupidity, you fire the head of the FBI during an investigation of your campaign colluding with Russia and the next day you have Russia in the oval office AND give them classified info.  It really is unbelievable but it happened.


  32. Trump / Phil – First rule, don't pick fight with people who buy ink by the gallon! He picked fights with the press, with the intelligence community, with all the different departments, with Congress and now he wonders why these people are going after him.


  33. Mercedes going after TSLA home battery sales.  TSLA meanwhile has double digit negative gross margins on their battery.

    https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/18/15654046/mercedes-benz-home-battery-solar-panels-tesla-powerwall


  34. gnc, ftr, m, jo, f, teva, gild, tsla, amzn…. dangit!!!!


  35. Thanks Phil – re: CTSH


  36. BRZU – Closed out the last piece up 4 points.  Sometimes double dipping pays off, but certainly not all the time.


  37. Phil since we are over the strong bounce lines, I guess you now are out of any index shorts. Just waiting for 3 of 5 to go under again right?


  38. I meant to say weak bounce lines. Sorry.


  39. Ladies and Gentlemen,

    Reading through all your comments, sitting here on one of the costal strips of Italia, sipping a glass of wine, waiting to set over by ship to Croatian, I really cannot understand that a country like America can chose one of the biggest assholes for President. He even tops the Kin Kong from North Korea. He is just the laughing stock here in Europe. How the hell he actually made money in the past is just a puzzle for me. Obviously he did not declare his financials as possible all was just another BS. Please you guys surely you can do better than that. Even a monkey, Phil sometimes shows on the board selecting stocks, would do better than that. So please stop crying and take so action.


  40. Yodi – We the people, did not elect him.  He did not win the popular vote.


  41. and I thank god everyday that the popular vote is not our system. I voted against Liar Hillary


  42. Yes, because Liar Trump is so much better!!!!!


  43. FU CBI !!!!!


  44. Latch tell us one proven lie of any consequence Hillary is guilty of? I know Trump is the much bigger liar because his lies are in print and proven. I can't think of one thing Hillary has been accused of lying about that is proven fact.


  45. Phil if we start failing those weak bounces without getting to the strong bounce, do you usually short then or do you always wait to cross back below your original shorting line? For example, on ES your line was 2350. We got well above the weak bounce of 2360 to 2367. Do you simply wait to see if 3 of 5 go back below those original lines?


  46. Hillary isnt guilty of any lies per se – just part of the filthy establishment encouraging "pay to play" (legalized bribes) via the Clinton foundation. Trump gets so much hate because he isn't from the establishment. Funny how Comey comes out with the memo stating he had concerns about Trump interfering in the Russia investigation AFTER HE WAS FIRED. Would have helped if he mentioned it before!


  47. Election was stolen – by dirty money, by voter suppression, constant free coverage for clown Don and who knows what else. Second time in 20 years (2000, 2016) that Rs rigged it.  

    That said Hillary didn't do a lot to make new friends.She wasn't a great seller of the party of FDR.  And for most people the economy has been getting worse since 2000 – largely due to Republican trickledown.  But many people don't remember 2000-2009 set us up for the fall.  

    And of course the email thing was just sloppy in a kind of bad rich grandma way.  But not TREASON.

    And she never won a competitive election. To become Senator she waltzed through the Democratic primaries in NY and never faced a serious Republican opponent.  

    But she couldn't get past Obama in 2008.  In 2016 Bernie didn't run an aggressive enough campaign – he said "email" once and then dropped it.  Trump said it every day, over and over, on free tv. Bernie never had a chance even with my $27.

    She should've won.  (Maybe she did!). But Biden or Warren or Bernie would've won…


  48. Flip short oil for a quick trade? I know it's against the overall premise, but after this run it may be out of steam with the dollar still low. Any thoughts? 


  49. We need a constitutional convention. Get corporate money out of politics, term limits on congress critters. No telling what other ideas might come up. but those are the two big ones. A balanced budget amendment wouldn't hurt either… it's the only way we're going to fix this mess, congress will never vote for any of it.


  50. Phil/SGYP

    I have a May 6 put that I sold for 1.9 and it is now at the same price and expiry is tomorrow. I was thinking of buying it back and sell the July one for 2.20. what do you look at while rolling such trades?

    thanks as always

    regards


  51. /CL 48.58- IN and Out @ 49.55   Snagged a couple Mini /QM's with the profit - target is 50ish.  then short?  

    Thank you Phil for this site –  the trade discussions on PSW are mind boggling.  Future trading while learning to be a value investor.  Priceless  

    200 hours


  52. CBI – broke 20 now 18.8 and falling- headed to 16 as the next support line….   18 has a bit of resistance….  this is being driven by technicals at the moment.  The price now is approaching a fire sale.   This will be a good back half of year story with FCF trending up,  and pre paids hitting a more normal cadence and aiding both CF and NI.   I'm happy with my low end target of 26 to 30 for '17.. I also think that  a 30 to 35 target for '18 is reasonable.  This is based on an EPS of 3.8 this year and 4.2 in '18.  with a conservative multiple of 7X to 8X

    '17 target price is 26 to 30

     '18 target price is 30 to 35…. 


  53. A different look at the talk of our household debt level:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/05/household-debt-has-not-set-new-record

    You know what else has increased over the past decade? That's right: the population of the United States. Also GDP. Also inflation. And you know what's decreased? Interest rates. It's misleading clickbait reporting to write about a dumb, nominal, aggregate number like total debt just because you can get a good news hook out of the fact that it's surpassed its previous peak. In fact, the Federal Reserve explicitly warned against this when it released these figures yesterday. Instead, you should take a look at how much households are actually spending to pay off their debt. Here it is:


  54. Phil – "if we're impeaching Trump because the Russians helped him steal the election – why would we then put his running-mate in charge?  I guess we'll cross that bridge when we come to it but clearly Mike Pence couldn't get elected dog catcher in 80% of this country."

    Thank you for my ROFLMAO of the day.  Barney Fife would have a better chance.

    Phil – FTR –  In yesterdays forum, early AM today, regarding my link to a reader comment on Censored Alpha, you commented….

    "FTR/Naybob – "You can say that about anyone with debt – But what if they default, what if rates go up… You say VZ is so smart but there was a time when VZ was expanding to challenge T and looked like a debt bomb too."  

    True that, you can say that about anyone.  As for VZ, much like Master Sergeant Schultz, I said nothing and know nothing. My comment…

    Burr/Scott – FTR – This comment regarding their cash flow and on hand capital bears scrutiny. Pun intended.

    In that that linked comment, posted by another individual, was an observation as to financial management and cash on hand being "thin": 

    Why do you think they finally cut the dividend? Because they have no cash to pay the old dividend. Notice that they had 341M cash left at the end of the quarter. Out of that they paid 325M in April for a principal debt payment. So they are down to just 16M in cash. Also they sold their office buildings for $70 million last quarter and will lease them back. Had they not sold them, they would have been out of cash now. The fact that they were paying close to 10% dividend at the same time as they raised debt at 11% interest and were underivesting in their networks shows incredible financial mismanagement.

    Just sayin, bears scrutiny and Out.


  55. Spelling/Malsg – Not a job requirement (fortunately, for me either!).  

    /CL/Jeff – I was going to say it's taking the sting out of my Coffees but now /KC is taking the sting out of my /KC.  

    I'm back to 4 long /KC now and I hope to do better than this.  My average is around $131.70 (now I've lost track) so I guess I'll keep a tight stop on 2 of them.  

    As to oil, I only have 3 long a bit below $49 so not eager to get out with a week to go but we are still in the rollover danger zone with a still-uncomfortable 113,000 open June contracts but 3 days to trade and we know they can do 35,000 a day standing on their heads so we may have seen the last of the dip.

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Jun'17 48.93 49.34 48.05 49.19 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.12 128638 49.07 113829 Call Put
    Jul'17 49.25 49.67 48.38 49.51 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.10 321706 49.41 614997 Call Put
    Aug'17 49.58 49.94 48.66 49.79 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.09 25055 49.70 163915 Call Put
    Sep'17 49.82 50.18 48.93 50.08 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.11 17726 49.97 185712 Call Put
    Oct'17 50.06 50.38 49.15 50.24 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.05 7390 50.19 105662 Call Put
    Nov'17 50.40 50.57 49.34 50.43 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.05 5125 50.38 65874 Call Put
    Dec'17 50.44 50.71 49.49 50.56 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.03 25535 50.53 313658 Call Put
    Jan'18 50.43 50.75 49.64 50.75 10:40
    May 18


    -

    0.12 4414 50.63 72564 Call Put

    OPEC meets next Thursday!  

    Stupid/Rustle – I think he's setting up for the insanity defense.  Who would argue he's sane?

    Mercedes/Rustle – Not really comparable, you need 5 Mercedes batteries to equal a Powerwall and, if I'm reading the price correctly, the Mercedes works out to be 5x more expensive.  Of course, that's why TSLA loses money on each battery sold.  

    Bias/StJ – I don't think bias is the right word.  He is TERRIBLE, the things he does are TERRIBLE, the people he surrounds himself with are TERRIBLE.  My bias is towards not having TERRIBLE leadership – it's not specifically against Trump, any idiot doing such a TERRIBLE job would get the same treatment.  People have to stop saying this is anti-Trump when it's simply pro common sense!  

    WMT/Albo – The sleeper has awakened!  

    Image result for walmart vs amazon online 2016

    Long way to go.  If we assume up 2/3 takes WMT to about $25Bn but, on the other hand, AMZN was $135M total last year so only grew 26%, which means WMT is outgrowing them by large amount.  No one is noticing because it's in a growing space but you know WMT's game - they will push for market share and then just keep cutting prices until AMZN can't take it anymore.  

    You're welcome Leaner. 

    Index shorts/Craigs – I got out of them at the bottom and THEN waited for the bounces to see if we should short again.  Why ride out the bounce?  

    • Dow (/YM) 20,500 with 20,600 (weak) and 20,700 (strong) bounce lines.
    • S&P (/ES) 2,350 with 2,360 (weak) and 2,370 (strong)
    • Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,550 with 5,580 (weak) and 5,610 (strong) 
    • NYSE (no futures) 11,400 with 11,450 (weak) and 11,500 (strong) 
    • Russell (/TF) 1,350 with 1,360 (weak) and 1,370 (strong) 

    So the only strong bounce is the Nasdaq and we still only have two weak bounces, though the S&P is heading over at the moment.  We're SUPPOSED to see 5 weak bounces in a healthy market today and 5 strong bounces by tomorrow – otherwise, the general uptrend is broken. 

    Thanks for the encouraging words, Yodi.   

    Image result for monkey dart board stocks

    CBI/Jet, Batman – Wow, what a train wreck.

    Chicago Bridge & Iron's Irrational Descent

    Submitted on 2017/05/17 at 11:47 am

    CBI/Batman – It's in a disastrous free fall.  Just because it paused at a major support line ($20), doesn't mean it's a floor.  Even if you just track the drop from $30, $2 ($22) would be weak and $4 strong ($24) and anything less than that and you're still in a downtrend.  

    That's how the 5% Rule keeps you from making mistakes and calling false bottoms.  

    Bounces/Criags – It would depend on the news flow, etc.  On the whole, I'd rather short breaks below yesterday's lows (the base lines noted above), not just breaks below the weak bounce lines.

    Oil/Jeff – OK, I'll say it again, I don't flip flop in the middle of a range.  May as well drive down to AC and bet on black – or red – doesn't matter, right – as long as there's action…  

    SGYP/Pat – The Jan $5.50 puts are $2 and the 2018 $5 puts are $2 so I'd go with the Jan puts that improve your position by 0.50 and cost you nothing to roll but still expire in 6 months.  The only guarantee in the markets is that premium will expire worthless so selling the $5.50 puts for $2 gives you 0.37 in premium, which is 10% of the stock price.  What good is having that 10% guarantee if you avoid using it to your advantage?

    You're welcome Joseph, glad you are having fun (and learning something too)!  

    Debt service/StJ – But that's very much a function of rates (and income) and can go very negative very quickly.  Also, it includes the disposable income of the Top 1% – so very skewed.  

    Image result for fed funds rate

    So if we go through a tightening cycle (lie the Fed says they intend to start) like the one on 05-07 and fund rates go up 4%, then Debt Service payments jump to 14% or more which means it's not possible for the Fed to normalize the economy without destroying it.  

    FTR/Naybob – So they elected to cut the dividend and economize rather than borrow more money and that's bad but if they borrowed more money that would have been bad too, right?  Just want to make sure I understand the rules of the game….  Frankly, I hate defending them as I want to buy 9,000 more shares at 0.80 for the OOP.  


  56. Speaking of weak bounces failing…


  57. WannaCry, the hacking attack that took thousands of computers’ data for ransom over the last week, hasn’t apparently been very lucrative for its makers so far. But another, apparently larger and smarter hacking attack that uses the same exploits, is silently using vulnerable machines across the …


  58. A day after protests at the Turkish Embassy in Washington, D.C., turned violent, the State Department is criticizing Turkey’s government.<p>Video appears to show security forces belonging to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushing past police and violently breaking up a protest outside the …


  59. Turkey has called on Donald Trump to sack the US diplomat responsible for co-ordinating the international coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil), accusing him of backing Syrian Kurdish fighters that Ankara insists are terrorists.<p>The Turkish government blames Brett McGurk, …


  60. Vulnerable Republicans flee from Trump

    Centrist House members are starting to seek daylight from the president and his Russia-related scandals.<p>House Republicans facing tough reelection bids are running for cover from Donald Trump — an early sign that they believe the president’s deepening scandals could cost them their seats and even …


  61. This will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels.<p>Will this new contract help moderate the blatant price …


  62. Finding a job.[/caption]<p>Finding a job can be like looking for something in the dark. You know it’s out there but it’s hard to see and you’re not having any luck finding it. Job openings appear and disappear unpredictably, internet tools like LinkedIn are generally limited to jobs for people who …


  63. Expected marriage to Kei Komuro would cost Mako her title under law that only applies to female members of monarchy<p>Princess Mako of Japan, the eldest grandchild of Emperor Akihito, will lose her royal status if she goes ahead with marrying a commoner because of a law that only applies to female …


  64. Russian President Vladimir Putin made light of President Trump’s “secrets” after it was reported that he shared classified information with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.


  65. As CO2 in the atmosphere goes continues to rise, this hot trend isn’t showing any signs of abating.<p>One of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history may now be behind us ? but if you thought its conclusion marked the end of record-breaking global average temperatures, think again.<p>Fueled by a …


  66. Amazon and Google are currently in the early stages on an epic battle to control your home, the effects of which will be be felt for years to come.<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual assistants that promise to organise your life are just about the hottest topic in tech right now. Everyone has …


  67. New York City isn’t just the most expensive place to build in the world — it’s also one of the most “overstretched” in terms of skilled construction workers available, according to a new report.<p>The average cost of building in the city was $354 per square foot last year, making it the most expensive …


  68. A president is accused of obstructing justice. Secret recordings may exist that incriminate the leader. Protesters take to the streets to demand impeachment. The president’s approval ratings plunge. The stock market crashes.<p>This isn’t about Donald Trump in Washington, DC. This is thousands of miles …


  69. At a steel mill in Seguin, Texas, an employee suffered burns to more than 60% of his body after hot liquid steel spilled onto him. He died in a hospital three days later.<p>A 21-year-old plastics worker was treated for severe burns to his hand and had to have four fingers amputated after he was …


  70. India’s rupee tumbled the most since June last year as local shares joined a global selloff triggered by concern over political turmoil in the U.S. …


  71. President Trump’s disgraced ex-national security adviser Mike Flynn thumbed his nose at the US Senate Thursday, with his lawyer saying he would not …


  72. Investors in the offshore driller need to brace themselves for a washout.<p><b>Seadrill</b>’s (NYSE:SDRL) stock currently sits 98.8% below its all-time high, …


  73. We’re buzzing just thinking about it.<p>Nothing kills a buzz faster than watered-down iced coffee on a hot summer day. Enter Starbucks and its not-so-new-yet-perfect solution: coffee ice.<p>Yes, that’s right, for 80 cents per drink you can pack even more caffeine into the already pretty heavily …


  74. As Donald Trump’s ballooning scandals sent stocks tumbling Wednesday, hedge fund managers gathered at the Bellagio in Las Vegas for one of the …


  75. Google kicked off its big I/O developer conference on Wednesday, and, among many other announcements, said it’s working to create “standalone” virtual reality headsets. As in, headsets that work independently, without having to be tied to a smartphone or PC.<p>Google isn’t the first company to try …


  76. WASHINGTON—To advance a tax overhaul this year, congressional Republicans first must clear a tricky hurdle: They need to agree on a budget.<p>In many years, budget resolutions are superfluous or impossible because the House and Senate are controlled by different parties. In fact, in eight of the past …


  77. Europe’s love affair with Facebook may be coming to an end.<p>On Thursday, the European Union’s powerful antitrust officials fined the social network 110 million euros, or about $122 million, for giving misleading statements during the company’s $19 billion acquisition of WhatsApp, the internet …


  78. Political turmoil swirling around President Trump reached critical mass on Wednesday, triggering a selloff in the US stock market. One concern is …


  79. Elon Musk thinks the value of his electric carmaker, Tesla, has gotten out of control.<p>”I do believe this market cap is higher than we have any right to deserve,” Musk was quoted as saying in an interview published in The Guardian on Thursday.<p>Tesla’s (TSLA) stock has soared by more than 40% this …


  80. The Nasdaq-100 and big tech stocks fell more than 2.5% in Wednesday’s brutal session and could lose additional ground before attracting fresh buying …


  81. ECB could start considering stimulus exit at next meeting

    FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Officials at the European Central Bank have indicated that their next meeting would be a good time to consider shifting toward an exit from the stimulus efforts that have boosted the economy.<p>A written account of the April 27 meeting showed members of the bank’s …


  82. “When you’re a star, they let you do it.”<p>Ross Douthat’s column arguing for the superiority of “25th Amendment remedies” to impeachment for Donald Trump’s various misdeeds is impressive in its ability to actually find something new and interesting to say about the president. But its premise — shared …


  83. Ivanka Trump’s company scored a big victory in China this month, on the same day that she dined at Mar-a-Lago with the president of China and his wife in her role as first daughter.<p>The victory? Trump’s company won the Chinese government’s preliminary approval for three new trademarks, giving it …


  84. Remember when Donald Trump promised to label China a currency manipulator “on Day One”? Whatever happened to that promise?<p>A review of recent developments in the relationship between the Trump administration and the Chinese is elucidating.<p>Trump rattled China early on in his administration after …


  85. Bernie Sanders says “there’s something strange going on” with the president<p>CNN’s town hall debate between Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., aptly titled “A White House in crisis”, focused on the fallout of Trump’s leaking of top-secret information to Russian officials during …


  86. Exclusive: CEO Elon Musk defends workplace, saying ‘[we are not] just greedy capitalists who skimp on safety’ – and declares his $50bn company overvalued<p>When Tesla bought a decommissioned car factory in Fremont, California, Elon Musk transformed the old-fashioned, unionized plant into a …


  87. European authorities are still resisting a U.S. initiative to expand a laptop ban in airline cabins by questioning the potential safety risks, …


  88. Ford’s first fully electric, long-range car is on schedule to arrive by 2020 and will boast an affordable price tag. But it’s going to have some serious competition.<p>Ford first announced it was planning to launch a long-range, all-electric crossover utility vehicle (CUV) in January at CES. And while …


  89. New York (AP) — A car traveling through Times Square has driven into a crowd of pedestrians, injuring several people.<p>Television images taken at the …


  90. Sen. Chuck Grassley is confused by DOE’s rush to finish the study in 60 days.<p>A Republican senator is pushing back against an electric grid …


  91. He’s been patiently waiting for the VIX to explode, and now that it has, his calls will get rolled on.<p>The mysterious volatility buyer or buyers …


  92. WASHINGTON — Several White House advisers and personal associates of President Trump have urged him to hire an experienced outside lawyer to help him deal with issues arising from a surging controversy over whether his campaign had ties to Russia, according to several people briefed on the …


  93. Phil – "Just want to make sure I understand the rules of the game….  Frankly, I hate defending them as I want to buy 9,000 more shares at 0.80 for the OOP."

    Just an observation, and no defense necessary.  Ceteris Paribus, at current multi year low, FTR would seem to be a hell of a bargain and 0.80 cents sounds even more excellent.  Much like a TSLA investor, the person who made the comment wished to scrutinize cash on hand, which goes with burn rate and the underlying circumstance.  Bearing in mind, it's only AYCE – all you can eat, if you can get it, there is relevance as to their financial management or lack.  Moving forward, TBD and out.


  94. "A car traveling through Times Square has driven into a crowd of pedestrians"…

     You are one of those who reads  in Ipads and work in laptops?….has nothing in conection but will be used by FAA  to ban them 


  95. Plagued by scandals, White House staffers are looking for a way out<p>It seems that working for President Donald Trump is increasingly unappealing to the White House staffers who often bear the brunt of his anger as his administration wallows in scandal.<p>While Trump likes to blame his problems on his …


  96. Of all the charts I have seen recently on “peak debt,” this one provides some basis for evaluating the context as to what the debt components look …


  97. Wow, Donald Trump can’t even give a commencement speech to the military without making it all about him.<p>“Now I want to take this opportunity to give you some advice. Over the course of your life, you will find that things are not always fair. You will find that things happen to you that you do not …


  98. <b>Purchases of riot gear by police departments are surging across the country as civil unrest grows, with fears that major American cities could see</b> …


  99. Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN<p>Historical Comparisons<p><b>Stocks</b><br>billion cubic feet (Bcf)<p><b>Year ago</b><br>(03/24/16)<p><b>5-year</b> …


  100. | WASHINGTON<p>Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCHA.MI) shares fell over 3 percent in early U.S. trading on Thursday on reports the Justice Department is preparing to file a civil suit against the automaker for selling 104,000 vehicles that emit excess diesel emissions.<p>Reuters reported Wednesday the …


  101. WASHINGTON — Only two months ago, Republicans in Congress and President Trump’s top economic advisers were confidently predicting that a sweeping rewrite of the tax code would be in hand by summer’s end.<p>But with the White House consumed with constant upheaval, Congress facing the prospect of myriad …


  102. From what I'm hearing, the Times Square thing was not an accident, people saying driver intentionally drove into crowd but officials making a point to say it's NOT terrorism (so continue shopping).


  103. /RB $1.612 – very nice!  Take that and run, I say.  At least 1/2 with stop below $1.61 on the rest.  

    $2.50 still very bouncy on Copper (/HG). 


  104. ~~Fiat owns all these brands: Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge, Ferrari, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Ram and SRT

    I was surprised to see Ferrari and Maserati on this list.


  105. Fiat has owned Ferrari for a very long time I believe!


  106. Pat, Stj    you mean RACE ? 


  107. Ferrari (RACE) > Was spun off from Fiat in Jan 2016 

    MILAN (AP) — Sports carmaker Ferrari is following up its successful Wall Street listing with a stock market launch in Milan, as it begins a new era as a stand-alone company free of the mass-market associations of its former parent, Fiat Chrysler.

    The company famed for its Formula 1 racing machines and coveted red roadsters began trading Monday morning, the first business day of the year, at 43 euros ($47) under the RACE ticker. After a volatile day, the shares closed at 43.24 euros.

    The listing, which comes after Ferrari made its public debut on the New York Stock Exchange in October, completes the company's separation from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles SpA.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3383494/Ferrari-makes-stand-debut-Milan-stock-exchange.html

     


  108. Stockbern – SRT yes.


  109. Apparently a speeding vehicle also struck pedestrians in Staten Island. Not sure if it is related, as per zerohedge so….


  110. crs/Staten Island… that wasn't a van hitting pedestrians.  A "special-needs" van was involved in a multi-car crash.


  111. Thanks for the clarification! always take zerohedge with a couple grains of salt lol


  112. FIAT—- please don't tell me my Ferrari isn't getting the mileage they said it would


  113. Looks like Trump crisis is over.  Markets rallying pretty hard


  114. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP):  As noted in yesterday's webinar, there's no urgency to change any positions this month and the markets are uncertain heading into expiration so we're going to wait until next week and see how things look before making adjustments.  We lost $4,000 ($1,322,670) since yesterday but you can't trust intra-day pricing.  We're not going to make moves just because of an arbitrary calendar day.

    Butterfly Portfolio Review:  Not a good month for the Butterfly Portfolio as we got hit for $27,975 on our short AAPL calls – ouch!  The portfolio hasn't been touched since our 4/9 review and, due to the same uncertainty noted above, we're probably not going to make many changes this week either.  We stand today at $312,204, which is up 212% two months ahead of our 3-year anniversary.  That is down net $19,239 and, as I noted, AAPL is the main culprit and it's not even badly off track – just a poor interim report card.

    Note:  I'm skipping the 2 loose shorts and will discuss them in the context of the full positions.  

    • AAPL – We were getting burned by 15 short April $115s and we rolled to 30 short June $130s and now we're getting burned on them. Still, overall we're net even on the AAPL spread and we have 20 more months to get it right.  If we cash the $100 calls ($55) and spend $12 of that to roll the short $130s to the $150s, we're left with $43 ($120,900)  and we can buy 2x the $120s ($34.50 – $207,000) and sell 1x more of the short $150s ($20.50 – $61,500) and that would cost us net $24,600 on top of the net $4,650 from the current spread so $29,250 on 60 $120/150 bull call spreads that pay $180,000 if AAPL is over $150 and then we'd be half covered with the June $130 calls.  This is why I don't worry about the current $27,975 loss on the short calls – we can fix it!  
    • COST – We're a bit over our $165 target for July but we sold the $165 puts and calls for $12.05 – so we have a lot of room for error.
    • CTSH – We don't have any short puts because the stock never pulls back – very annoying.  We sold the June $60 calls for $2 and they are now $5.25 so by no means a tragedy and I still don't want to sell puts this high up in the channel so we will wait PATIENTLY to see how thing resolve.  

    • DIS – Perfect pullback for us and the short $110 calls should expire worthless and now we do like selling puts so, for the next cycle (since earnings are not until Aug), let's sell 10 (1/2) July $105 puts for $2.30 and 10 July $105 calls for $3.65 as they will be easy to adjust and put a quick $5.950 in our pockets (this is why we have so much cash in this portfolio!) on a position that cost us less than $5,000 and has long since been paid off.  
    • GIS – Too low at $56.  Let's buy back the July $60 calls (0.50) and see what happens.  
    • MSFT – A bit over our target range but a big improvement as they've come down from almost $70.  We are well covered with 2019 $62.50 calls so no reason to do anything sooner than we have to.  The 
    • PG – Was way over our range, now right back in it so all is well.  Just to be on the safe side, let's cash in the 2018 $65 puts (0.66) and buy the 2019 $70 puts for $2.55 – just in case they do take a dive.  Either way, we buy another year of puts to sell.  

    • TGT – We flipped bullish on them and earnings were not bad so let's give them time to improve.  
    • TXN – We're not there yet but it's improving.  
    • VLO – Right on target, I wish we'd sold more calls.  
    • WMT – Fortunately, we did a half sale on the short calls.  We're also long-term bullish, with no long so all is well and we hopefully won't need to reposition until 2020s come out.
    • WYNN – Possibly this is a new, higher channel for them.  No hurry on these, we have a strong long position and there's lots of premium in the short calls still.

    Only 3 adjustment to make into expirations – not bad.  We will touch base next week to see how things are trending but this should tide us over until June.


  115. CDNjay – Let's call it a PENCE RALLY!!!   ;)


  116. Jay > It is worse, …. they are discontinuing 12 cylinders and bolting on turbo's! Next who knows …. a Green Ferrari?


  117. Insurance /Phil.

    What would your suggestion be for some Insurance in case of another 2.5% drop or more after this relief pop.

    Thanks,Dec


  118. And up we go again.  All is well, I guess.  

    Ferrari/CDN – How many gallons per mile? cool

    I don't know if I'd call this a big rally yet but we're getting over our weak bounce lines (mostly).

    I think the markets were encouraged that Trump's anti-human agenda continues to be pushed through, regardless of what kind of puppet of Russia he turns out to be:

    • The FCC has voted 2-1 to start a process that would culminate in eliminating the classification of Internet service providers as common carriers, rolling back net neutrality rules formed under the last administration.
    • The agency approved a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that changes the Title II classification for those providers and looks for comment on which way to go on net neutrality.
    • It will take comments until Aug. 16, with final decisions to come after that.

    Oligarchy wins again!  

    • A duo of blue and pink diamond earrings were just auctioned off for $57M at Sotheby's (NYSE:BID) – a record price for a set of earrings.
    • Alongside, BID's stock price is near an all-time high.
    • Writing on Seeking Alpha, Edge Lab, reminds of a maxim of another SA contributor, Chris DeMuth: Sell when the ratio of the Sotheby's to Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) gets too high. The basic idea isn't difficult to decipher: When things on a relative basis are going a bit too well at the luxury auction house, capital markets might be fairly well picked over.
    • Going back to 2006, Edge Labs found five instances when this ratio got too perky – in each case, the market corrected shortly thereafter. It's in that perky zone today.
    • Edge Labs: "If this indicator remains true, and the market corrects, then you can blame it on a pair of $57M earrings."
    • Elon Musk made some interesting comments in a phone interview with The Guardian on some complaints about Tesla's (TSLA +1.4%) treatment of workers and factory safety conditions that may have contributed to reported incidents by employees of dizziness, fainting and seizures.
    • "We’re a money-losing company,” Musk noted before really getting into his premise. “This is not some situation where, for example, we are just greedy capitalists who decided to skimp on safety in order to have more profits and dividends and that kind of thing. It’s just a question of how much money we lose. And how do we survive? How do we not die and have everyone lose their jobs?"
    • What about the idea that Tesla trades at a valuation close to GM and Ford? “I do believe this market cap is higher than we have any right to deserve," Musk tells the British publication.
    • Last weekend, a Tesla blog post highlighted the company's commitment to safety.
    • Source: The Guardian
    • The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index increased to 50.2 from 49.7 last week.
    • The State of the Economy index fell to 45.3 from 45.5.
    • The Personal Finance Index rose to 60.6 vs. 59.4 last week
    • Apr. Leading Indicators: +0.3% to 126.9 vs. +0.3% consensus, +0.3% (revised) prior.
    • Coincident Index +0.3% to 115.2 vs. +0.3% prior.
    • Lagging Index +0.3% to 124.1 vs. +0.1% prior.

  119. Phil/Ferrari.   In Canada we don't go miles per gallon. We use a ration of litres/ 100 km.  How many litres does it take to go 100 km in other words ( i know I can be condescending)  A good midsize gets about 7-8 litres.  A ferrari would get about 4 I would think, less in the winter because you'd have the chains on the tires


  120. Pat, StJL, Jayster – FCA and everything you never suspected - FCA, is an Italian-controlled multinational corporation incorporated in the Netherlands, and currently the world’s seventh-largest auto maker.  Exor S.p.A, an Italian investment group owned by the Agnelli family, owns 29.19% of FCA and controls 44.31% through a loyalty voting mechanism. 

    FCA owns: Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Fiat Professional, Jeep, Lancia, Ram Trucks, Abarth, Mopar and SRT.  Also Maserati, Comau, Magneti Marelli, and Teksid. Today FCA operates in four regions (NAFTA, LATAM, APAC, EMEA).  In January 2016, Ferrari was spun off after FCA listed 10% of the company on the NYSE in October 2015, and then distributed their remaining 80% stake in Ferrari to FCA shareholders.

    Of special interest: Magnetti Marelli based in Corbetta specializes in parts, high tech diagnosis systems, intelligent systems for active and passive vehicle safety as well as powertrain systems.   Subs include: AL-Automotive Lighting, Carello, Cromodora, Cofap, Ergom Automotive, Jaeger, Mako Elektrik, Paraflu, Securvia, Seima, Siem SpA, Solex, Veglia Borletti, Vitaloni, Weber.

    Teksid (formerly Ferriere Piemontesi) based in Carmagnolo specializes in iron castings for the automotive industry.  Renault retains 15% of the foundry business. Customers include FCA, Renault, Cummins, Ford and General Motors. In China, Teksid has a 50% ownership of Hua Dong Teksid Automotive Foundry Co. Ltd.

    Comau based in Turin specializes in process automation, manufacturing and service products and welding robots. Although involved in a multitude of industrial automation technologies, Comau's core involves body assembly, powertrain systems and robotics.

    An auto maker, such as F or GM, would call Comau to design, build out, instrument and set up the assembly line. In another lifetime, I commissioned Comau's Global ERP system and out. 


  121. Insurance/DM – Well it was the RUT and the Nas that lost the most yesterday (2.5%) and today the Nas is up 1% and the RUT is up 0.5% so I'd say the RUT is the better one to short.  TZA, of course, is the way to go and it's a 3x ETF at $18.50 and a 10% drop on the RUT should be a 30% gain on TZA to $24, so that's our target but you have to allow for decay – depending on your time-frame.  

    Also at $18.50, 30% lower would be $12.50 and you can sell the Jan $20 puts for $4.40 to net in at $15.60, so you'd be down about $3 if the RUT pops 10% more in 6 months.  So, let's say you could stand owning $15,600 worth of TZA (you could immediately flip and sell calls against them anyway) so you sell 10 of the Jan $20 puts and buy 50 of the Jan $20($2.85)/25 ($2) bull call spreads for 0.85 ($4,250) and that's a net $150 credit to have $25,000 of downside protection or you could just spend the $4,250 for $25,000 in protection – nothing wrong with that either. 

    Keep in mind the spread won't pay much on a quick downturn – it's there to protect against a SUSTAINED loss in your bullish positions – not a temporary one.  


  122. Phil – TF bounces,  I am in for 2 long at 1360 as it looks for 1370.  I should expect it to fail 1370 and sell there correct? Then watch to see if it wants to break up further, and buy once its above 1370?  Thanks


  123. MSFT – Was there once a short $70 call leg in the trade?  Not sure why I have that in addition to the rest of the spread.   The Jan 2019s.   Big loser at the moment because of the time value.  I am wondering if good to buy matching MSFT shares or just ditch it and take the hit or…?


  124. /NG > Phil, the NG Storage Report looked reasonable and AC weather is here – yet the futures are down on the week (/NGV7 $3.33) – Am I missing something?

    Summary

    Working gas in storage was 2,369 Bcf as of Friday, May 12, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 68 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 375 Bcf less than last year at this time and 256 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,113 Bcf. At 2,369 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. (http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html)


  125. Ferrari/Cdn – Not really a snow car, is it?  

    Bounces/Latch – Well, since noon, we got the NYSE black on the weak bounce (11,470), Dow and S&P have hit strong and RUT is stuck at weak but, if we finish up here – odds begin to favor a move higher tomorrow.   You want to see the RUT confirm first and foremost. 

    MSFT/Tangled – There is, at the top of the portfolio.  The positions max out at 4 legs and then you have to start a new one for additional legs.  I really think $70 is a bit high and the short $70s are 100% premium so why would I not want to let them erode over time?  We have the long 2019 $62.50 calls so it's really a $62.50/70 spread (20) with Jan $42 long puts (20) and we sold the July $62.50 calls and $60 puts for $6 so anything between $68.50 and $54 would be a winner and leave us with just the 2019 bull call spread and the long puts.  So there's no "big loser" unless you never bought the long calls.  

    /NG/Aquila – The build was bigger than expected but it didn't move the needle on the long contracts so not much to do but wait for LNG exports to begin chewing into inventories (along with cooling).

    • The Bank of Mexico lifts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%. About half of those economists surveyed by Bloomberg had been expecting a move.
    • The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW -1.1%) remains lower on the session, but has ticked a bit higher since the rate decision.

  126. Phil > Thxs


  127. TF is not doing well breaking 1360



  128. Phil – My /NG long is taking a beating @ 3.184.  I got in @ 3.23 today.  It only has 8 days left.  

    What is your opinion?  DD @ 3.15, or take the loss and roll to next month?


  129. A little selling pressure into the close.  

    /NG/Burr – I'm using /NGV7 ($3.33), need time to get to hurricane season and way less volatile.  

    Climate/Tangled – Well it's good stuff in theory but it hinges on a substantial carbon tax, which is something the GOP has fought tooth and nail.  The rest is no different than what the Dems have been pushing for (other than removing regulations).  Of course, what it leads to is that the rich can pollute all they want because they buy carbon credits on the "free market" (which would be manipulated like oil) while the poor will be put out of business – score another win for the oligarchs.  


  130. Thanks, but doesn't really answer my question unless you are trying to say, take the loss and roll to /NGV7.  


  131. Yes, sorry if that wasn't clear.  


    • Speaking to reporters, Brazilian President Michel Temer says he's never authorized hush money bribes, and has nothing to hide.
    • He's requested to hear the tapes which supposedly show him discussing the payment of hush money.
    • Down more than 10% early in the session, the Bovespa is now down a still-whopping 8.8%EWZ -15.05%
    • Itau Unibanco (ITUB -17.5%), Bradesco (BBD -17.9%), Santander Brasil (BSBR -17.6%), Vale (VALE -5.9%), Petrobras (PBR -16.6%), Gerdau (GGB -16.6%), Braskem (BAK-6.9%), Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELP -17.5%), Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao (CBD -16%), Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP -10.7%), Embraer (ERJ -3.1%), TIM Participacoes (TSU -14.3%), Cia Energetica de Minas Gerais CEMIG (CIG-20.9%), Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID -17.3%), Gol Linhas (GOL -24.7%)
    • Speaking at a conference, T-Mobile (TMUS +3.3%) CFO Braxton Carter acknowledges that Sprint (S +7.7%) is the most logical partner for the company in upcoming industry consolidation.
    • The Obama administration preferred a four-player U.S. wireless market, but the Trump administration could think differently — and the case for a stronger competitor to AT&T (T+1.7%) and Verizon (VZ +1.6%) is “even more true today because of Sprint’s precarious financial position … The combined company would have the ability and the resources to really put all of that spectrum to work for the benefits of consumers and businesses everywhere.”
    • If not with each other, then Sprint and T-Mobile figure to be heavily at play in talk of combinations that could include cablecos like Comcast (CMCSA +1.9%) or Charter (CHTR+1.2%), or a spectrum-heavy tie-up with Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH).
    • While Carter speaks in New York, Sprint chief Marcelo Claure is in Washington, D.C., for meetings with officials including regulators.

  132. By the way, Tangled, so once these guys get the citizens of the World hooked on government controlled handouts (and, at $4,000 x 270M people, he's talking $1Tn/yr) they can use it as a political tool and, ultimately, if they succeed in getting businesses to zero out their emissions – then they gravy train grinds to a halt and we have a recession based on no longer giving consumers $1Tn/yr.  

    Still, we should sit down with him and talk GreeCoin!  


  133. I think Trump is going to announce a new FBI Director – there's a news conference getting ready to go.  Bloomberg is saying Lieberman, which would be very strange.  FBI doesn't usually have political directors – we kind of like it when they know what they're doing in that job.  Not to mention it's not likely he'd live out a 10-year term.  


  134. TF – tired of jacking with it – got out at 1363. $400 win.Will buy at 1360. and wait for tomorrow's ride up.


  135. For us coffee heads.  I'm flat, but will be long when it opens.

     

    AnthonyCFA @tonycfa

    5h

     

    $KC_F $JO #Futures Selling here on BZ news, in front of frost season and building El Niño-with dealers completely de-stocked, looks silly.

    Reply

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    AnthonyCFA @tonycfa

    6h

     

    $JO $KC_F #Futures Knee-jerk reaction in #COFFEE from BZ REAL; however CONAB just came out today & pegged 2017-18 crop at only 45.5M bags.

    AnthonyCFA @tonycfa

    5h

     

    $KC_F $JO #Futures Selling here on BZ news, in front of frost season and building El Niño-with dealers completely de-stocked, looks silly.

    Reply

    Retweet

    Like

    More options

    AnthonyCFA @tonycfa

    6h

     

    $JO $KC_F #Futures Knee-jerk reaction in #COFFEE from BZ REAL; however CONAB just came out today & pegged 2017-18 crop at only 45.5M bags.


  136. For us coffee heads.  I'm flat, but will be long when it opens.

    AnthonyCFA @tonycfa

    Selling here on BZ news, in front of frost season and building El Niño-with dealers completely de-stocked, looks silly.

    AnthonyCFA @tonycfa

    Knee-jerk reaction in #COFFEE from BZ REAL; however CONAB just came out today & pegged 2017-18 crop at only 45.5M bags.


  137. /KC/Burr- is this guy saying that the downward aggressive move is not justified based on the crop or justifying downward move?



  138. and its not all Trumps fault SJL — look in the mirror, just like I do everyday.



  139. Right Latch – Somehow I would be responsible for the mess at the White House! Most of Trump's problems now are of his own doing. And now he is playing the victim, being the most unfairly treated politician in history. Heck, Mandela spent 24 years in jail… JFK was assassinated. How's that for unfair. Look at how Trump treated Obama himself – dragging that Kenya BS for all these years. And note that Obama didn't get on a deranged tweet storm following all the slights that were thrown at him for 8 years. So gimme a break – the guys is just not fit for the job and that's it. And he has no class on top of that. It's a wonder he ever succeeded in business – oh wait….


  140. From the Bill Fleckenstein site – from Mr. 'Skin.   The lefties and their media cronies have been after Trump ever since the election. They have proved, over the years, that they are RELENTLESS until they finally get their way. I well remember the never ending assault on Nixon. It lasted almost 18 months until "they" finally found the ultimate trigger to get him out of office. My partner and I were running OPM at the time and we were pretty bearish – primarily because of the "technicals" and also because interest rates had started up. We paid very close attention to that political circus and it closely resembled what's happening right now. There are all sorts of conspiracy theories surrounding political maneuvers but we have never seen such an all out attack, this soon in a new administration. This time, Trump has "threatened" so many entrenched, vested interests (liberal judges, rule of law, immigration law enforcement, the global warming religion, media bias, etc.) that for the first time, virtually all of these interests found a unifying moment. If history is any guide, using the Nixon episode as a template, these people will not quit until Trump's efforts at reform are either neutralized or he is run out of office – fulfilling the ultimate "opposition" or "resistance" fantasies. I am afraid this current attack is just another in a long string of more vicious, convoluted attacks yet to come. The idea is simple: keep it up loud enough and long enough to panic the entrenched lefties in the Republican party – especially the ones up for reelection next year – to the point where NONE of Trump's additional policies make it through congress. Thus, the "Trump Hope" for real reform is eliminated, the trend chasing robots, ETFs, "tech wizards", new era proponents, etc. have to rethink their bullish argument that justified the extension of a stretched bull market. This break might be the start of a sequence of trend reversing, "internal" squiggles, sufficient to set up a normal, cyclical bear market. However, it's too soon to jump to such a conclusion, unless of course, the unprecedented "weirdness" of the past few years, has created the necessary ingredients for one of those EXTREMELY rare trap doors (crash without relief rallies)  Fleck: Thanks to Mr. Skin for the 1973-74 history lesson, as well as his views on the current situation. IMO, a trapdoor is exactly what folks deserve and will get for being so gullible.


  141. anyone going long TF here at 1359. ? I like KC at 129 as well.


  142. Wow Latch – stay away from the Kool-Aid! Do you think that conservatives and their media cronies gave Obama a free ride for 8 years? Where have you been? It was relentless… Calling him names, opposing him at every step even when it was in the interest of the country. But somehow it's different now because we have GOP president. And BTW, what real reform is Trump trying to implement? He is simply following the standard GOP template – tax cuts for the top 1% and fewer benefits for the rest of us. And liberal judges are as much a vested interest as conservative judges! Wow….


  143. I think the problem stems from believing in either side to begin with. We have an entrenched self serving elite in our bloated government. Both sides are corrupt and pretty firmly in control. It's how this game is played. It's the government soaking you for all they can get, it's never enough and we owe 20 TRILLION DOLLARS on top of that now. It's not left vs right, "us" does not include your government. When you start seeing them for what they are, all this bickering is pointless. They "cut" taxes and raise fees… hey look, we cut your taxes! Are you paying less in aggregate? Government likes to grow, It's how middle managers get promoted! It's what they do, it's out of control, neither side is going to fix it… so now what? Store some food, it could get ugly fast at any time. Land of the free…


  144. Inpeachment………..Hate to brag but In Canada we can just gang up on an idiot and defeat any bill and an election has to be called.  So we have nutbags in power now and then but they have to tow the line a little bit.  US system is just nuts


  145. NEM added another $400M in valuation. Bitcoin bubble? Does this author realize bitcoin is only one of many? (the answer is no, the author is a moron)


  146. StJ – one thing policy-less "righties" don't understand is probability and statistics. For example, I'm currently enjoying 1/1000th the probability of being killed by gun violence. Trying to hold a conversation about an "issue" where one side only brings emotion and prejudice to the table is meaningless by all definitions. It really isn't worth your time. "Righties," by way of 25.5% of the voters, control the House, Senate, and Presidency and we need to sit here and tolerate this intolerant blathering? It's pedantic and infantile.


  147. Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?<p>They’re not even hiding it anymore.<p>Tech is the umbrella word for all things fashionable to invest …


  148. <b>The INSIDER Summary:</b><p><b>Beauty is a big industry with hundreds of brands.</b>• <b><br>182 of those brands are owned by seven conglomerates.</b>• <b><br>They employ thousands and make billions of dollars each year.</b>• <b><br>They also are responsible for advertising and the way we think about beauty.</b><p>As consumers, we like to think that …


  149. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Universa Investments adviser and author of “The Black Swan,” discusses President Trump’s policies, the recent market selloff …


  150. <b>Joan C. Williams,</b> director of the Center for WorkLife Law at the University of California Hastings College of the Law in San Francisco, discusses serious misconceptions that the U.S. managerial and professional elite in the United States have about the so-called working class. Many people conflate …


  151. After peaking at $1,840, Bitcoin price stabilized in the $1,820 region earlier today on May 18. The recent surge of Bitcoin price seems to be largely …


  152. Perry is now the head of an agency he wanted to abolish<p>Most people who know anything about Rick Perry know he’s a friend to the fossil fuel industry. For 14 years, he was the Republican governor of Texas, a state that contains one-third of the nation’s oil reserves and is home to oil giants …


  153. Democrats’ confidence in country’s future declines sharply<p>The 2016 election ushered in a new era in Washington defined by unified Republican control …


  154. On the Internet today you will find thousands, perhaps even millions, of people gloating about the death of elephantine Fox News founder Roger Ailes. …


  155. by Capitalist Exploits – May 18, 2017 7:29 PM<p>How do you spell catastrophic?<p>No society has ever set itself up for such a sudden, dramatic change in …


  156. <b>Bitcon has been rocketing higher lately,</b> as it gains widespread official approval and more people figure out how to use it.<p>As the first of its kind …


  157. The bizarre series of rants by <b>Sears Holdings Corp.</b> (SHLD) CEO Eddie Lampert a week ago has spurred a crisis of confidence in the retailer’s …


  158. As the Bonn climate talks wrap up, a group of developing countries is seeking to remove big polluter lobbyists from UN climate change negotiations – …


  159. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he never asked former FBI Director James Comey to end the bureau’s investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s foreign contacts and payments.<p>”No. No. Next question,” Trump replied during a press conference with the Colombian …


  160. Vice President Pence shouldn’t measure the White House drapes just yet<p>Vice President Mike Pence has dutifully and publicly supported President Donald Trump throughout the avalanche of cascading controversies that have inundated the White House in the last four months. But after a third blockbuster …


  161. WASHINGTON — President Trump called the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, weeks after he took office and asked him when federal authorities were going to put out word that Mr. Trump was not personally under investigation, according to two people briefed on the call.<p>Mr. Comey told the president that …


  162. As young millennials leave in droves, research suggests the future of the GOP may be more precarious than it appear<p>The Republican Party controls all three branches of government, as well as 32 state legislatures and 33 governorships. Even if Donald Trump were to be impeached for obstruction of …


  163. Over the almost four years since it paid $1.1 billion for navigation startup Waze, Google Inc.’s plans for the traffic-avoidance app haven’t always …


  164. This is the technological equivalent of witchcraft. Take a look at the crazy stuff that Google Lens can do––things like identifying flowers, removing …


  165. ATHENS—Greece’s Parliament approved late Thursday a raft of fresh austerity measures and economic reforms that the country must implement in the next four years to unlock a much-needed cash payment to meet upcoming debt obligations.<p>Meanwhile, Greece’s most influential creditors—Germany and the …


  166. With the Fed contemplating whether to hike again next month and start “normalizing ” its balance sheet before the end of 2017, the two other major …


  167. Is Trump preparing to throw his aides under the bus?<p>The first thing President Trump was asked during his news conference with Columbian President …


  168. For an entire year – and counting.<p>Even the most exciting breakthrough medical treatment can be rendered obsolete by a particularly insurmountable …


  169. It may be possible to alter the atmosphere and create “global dimming.” But is the solution worse than the problem?<p>As many readers are well aware, the prospects of a livable planet for future generations went from bad to worse after the 2016 presidential election. This is why the Doomsday Clock, …


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  171. US jet fuel demand has been surprisingly strong this year, possibly on track to exceed forecasts for peak summer demand despite rising prices.<p>So far, …


  172. A small, bipartisan group of lawmakers is renewing a push at the federal level to legalize marijuana, calling it a criminal justice issue.<p>The Ending …


  173. WASHINGTON—Former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman is the leading contender to be President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Federal Bureau of Investigation, a senior administration official said.<p>Mr. Trump told reporters on Thursday that Mr. Lieberman is a top choice. Asked if Mr. Lieberman was one of his top …


  174. The ladybug is a tiny insect with hind wings four times its size. Like an origami master, it folds them up into a neat package, tucking them away within a slender sliver of space between its abdomen and the usually polka-dotted, harder wings that protect it.<p>When it is time to take off, it deploys …


  175. Shortly after Jon Corzine not only destroyed MF Global but “vaporized” $1.6 billion in supposedly segregated client funds which were illegally …


  176. The GOP healthcare bill may not be done in the House of Representatives, after all.<p>While the American Health Care Act passed the lower chamber by a razor-thin margin on May 4, a procedural quirk could force another vote on the bill before it is sent to the Senate, according to Bloomberg’s Billy …


  177. By Eric RostonEric Roston and Blacki MigliozziBlacki Migliozzi<p>A corrosion-proof, titanium Russian flag sways in the currents of the North Pole …


  178. One person was killed and at least 20 were injured. The suspect, Richard Rojas of the Bronx, has a history of driving under the influence, police …


  179. mkucstars-Bravo and well said. My partner worked in the highest levels of DC for years and would whole heartedly and with a "high five" say you are on the right (or left) track. Division is a fund raising tool. Gun Control could be resolved (and should be for all Americans), save it is a a huge fund raiser for both sides. Tragedy equals emails and plea's. "They are trying to take your guns….". "We need more gun control…."  "Donate!". Own both houses and FIX the issue, as Dems did for years, and Reps do now.

    Division is profitable. Us vs Us is a distraction. The largest redistribution of wealth just happened over the last 9 years. While the middle is surviving, the elites were feeding and thriving. Thanks for your comment.


  180. /CL over 50 now, I'm wishing I didn't sell my contracts


  181. pbrown1022 

    Well said


  182. This is great! 


  183. pbrown1022 –  Very insightful.  Thanks, I never understood that.  Same as fear I guess….  


  184. Bitcoin 1938 / Ehthereum 112 / Ripple $0.34

    http://coinmarketcap.com/


  185. P Brown Thanks, happy to find a kindred spirit. Got an email yesterday offering lunch with Ron Paul for $500.  LOL, audit the fed getting traction again, campaign for liberty constantly begs for money too… they all do. I donated to his presidential run, got on the list… attended LPAC, took their leadership training… unfortunately I find the whole process sickening. I wish we could stick with the constitution. We have a second amendment for one reason… to defend ourselves against government tyranny.


  186. Good morning! 

    Oil $50.27 so taking the money and running if $50.25 doesn't hold.  Dollar down 0.4% at 97.36 and indexes up 0.2% so it's one of those days that a weak dollar is used to cover the smart money exits – so take everything with a grain of salt.  

    Also, it's option expiration day and anything could happen.

    /KC coming off a low of $129, back to $130.5


  187. Phil – Mornin to ya.

    StJL, Muck, Latch, Brown, et al. – Divisive Narrative – The opposition party wants him to fail and they are doing everything imaginable to make it happen.  

    This is no different than any President since Washington.

    "The media is complicit with the many who want to destroy the fabric of reasonable thought, that holds the society together. They also know how gullible the uninformed members of the society are in forming opinions, which makes the media very powerful as they realize they can spew almost anything and it is bought by their targeted subjects. This concept has been very successful in historically devastated societies such as the scourge witnessed in Europe in the late thirties."

    A passive variant of the oldest method of control, divide and conquer. False doctrine is promoted through educational and media outlets. It's called programming for a reason as the blue pill placates many.
    A divisive narrative is utilized to foster gridlock by design. Over time, this advances a value extraction strategy to the benefit of the status quo. 

    An insular electorate that believes in their false indoctrination and brand name "labeling", can be easily manipulated and led to slaughter. The red pill allows one to discover how deep the rabbit hole goes. Take it and out.


  188. The best thing about the arctic article above is Bloomberg's use of HTML to reveal images as you read – so very cool!  This is also very interesting:

    All nations, in the Arctic and elsewhere, can claim an “exclusive economic zone,” or EEZ, that extends 200 nautical miles from shore. Nations have the right to explore the waters and seabed within their EEZs—but not the surface, which is considered international water.

    A treaty ratified by 168 countries, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, governs how they should figure out which nations have rights to what. Russia in 2001 made the first-ever legal claim to seafloor rights beyond its EEZ under the convention. After its vision was rejected, the Kremlin resubmitted it in 2015. Denmark has also filed a North Pole claim, and Canada is expected to do the same, perhaps within a year.

    Arctic Exclusive Economic Zones and Claimable Areas

    Russian reconnaissance unit members of the Northern Fleet's Arctic mechanized infantry brigade conduct military exercises near the Lovozero settlement.

    Meanwhile, you guys are talking about dividing the country between right and left or rich or poor to distract us but maybe we're just all being distracted while the real revolution takes it away from all of us:

    Image result for they took our jobs animated gif

    Image result for they took our jobs animated gif

    Good list of pot stocks.  


  189. Oops, out of /RB too as it failed $1.625 – hopefully that went without saying!  


  190. I love a scientific scale that goes lowest low medium high highest.


  191. I cannot imagine feeling "safe from government tyranny" because I own a handgun. It's almost like it's on purpose.


  192. Phil,

    What's the re-entry point on /CL and /RB longs?


  193. It doesn't make you safe, or feel safe. It gives you a means to defend yourself when threatened. Dangerous yes, but I can't imagine what our government would do if they were able to disarm the public. Make guns illegal, then only criminals will have them. How warm and fuzzy is that?


  194. Buys/ Phil

    Hi Phil – Logging back after a short hiatus.  Anything on your banging the table buy list?  I booked profits on LL and IRBT (too early though) – Thanks!

    Also double downed on FTR at 1.26 and TWTR at 15ish


  195. Phil / ABX: what do you think about the class action against them that causes the drop yesterday. Anything to worry about ? The freaking stock can't catch a break !