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GDPNow and Nowcast Converging (Opposite Direction Movement on Same Data)

Courtesy of Mish.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast models head towards convergence. This past week the models again moved in opposite directions on the same economic data.

Nowcast Detail

From a week ago, on the same data, Nowcast rose 0.1 percentage point. To be more precise, Nowcast rose from 2.17 to 2.25.

GDPNow Detail

In the same week, GDPNow fell from 3.4 to 3.0. The net result was a spread contraction of 0.5 percentage points.

Volatility

Since GDPNow posts its results more frequently, one should expect more GDPNow volatility, but not like we have seen.


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