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  1. phil

    Good morning!

    Waiting on the BOE rate decision, any minute.  Would be a surprise if they tighten.   Draghi already had his say:

    Mario Draghi called for continued euro-area stimulus even as the economy enters a new phase in its upturn, saying support is still needed to entrench the trend.

    “All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area — deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones,” the European Central Bank president said on Tuesday in Sintra, Portugal. “However, a considerable degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for inflation dynamics to become durable and self-sustaining. So for us to be assured about the return of inflation to our objective, we need persistence in our monetary policy.”

    The euro jumped as Draghi said that most factors damping inflation are temporary, and was up 0.6 percent at $1.1250 at 9:50 a.m. in Lisbon.

    Europe is flat, Asia was flat and we're flat – very exciting stuff!  Oil $43.84, might be finally going for $44, /RB $1.45 but Dollar back down at 96.61 so not at all impressive.  Silver was the right horse to back, just hit $1,000 per contract at $16.65 so done there and we'll look for fresh horses.  Nas was certainly the right short, still down at 5,760 and that was good for over $2,000/contract – it doesn't always have to be oil, you know!

    /TF short below 1,415 is the percentage play to make ahead of the BOE, assuming the Dollar bounces- tight stops above, I have to keep saying.

    Oh, I guess /DX long at 96.70 is good too!

    EU just fined GOOGL $2.7Bn for anti-trust violations.  It's not because they monopolize search but because they use that monopoly to send people to their own services over others (ie, they cheat/lie to you).  This will be interesting.  

    And here's a great article for history buffs:  "For the love of Zeus, stop misusing Thucydides"  - Great example of how you have to be critical of information – even the citations that are used to verify the information you're verifying.  

    • The White House says it has evidence that Syria is preparing to launch another chemical attack and warned that it will "pay a heavy price" for doing so.
    • In April, U.S. forces fired 59 Tomahawk missiles (NYSE:RTN) at a Syrian air base that was linked to a chemical-weapons attack in Idlib province that killed more than 80 people.

    Crisis in Brazil deepens

    • The country's attorney general has formally accused President Michel Temer of corruption, making him the first sitting president to face criminal charges.
    • While the alleged bribery scandal at meatpacker JBS (OTCQX:JBSAY) has spurred impeachment talk, it will definitely reduce the chances Temer can push through reforms needed for Brazil to rebound from its worst recession on record.

    Big week for the IPO market

    • The IPO market is expected to see more deals price this week than at any time over the past two years, as a strong stock market and the performance of new listings boosts confidence.
    • Investors that bought U.S.-listed IPOs priced in 2017 are so far reaping an average return of 12%, according to Renaissance Capital, whose exchange-traded fund IPO has returned over 22% YTD.

    CBO evaluates Senate health bill

    • The Senate Republican healthcare bill would result in 22M more people uninsured by the end of the coming decade, while reducing federal spending by $321B during that time, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
    • The figures, which were released just hours after GOP leaders revised the bill, complicates the path forward for the already-fraught legislation.
    • Is a vote before the July 4 recess still realistic?

     

    • A trade complaint asking the Trump administration to impose tariffs on solar panels could devastate the U.S. solar industry, wiping out two-thirds of systems forecast to be installed over the next five years, according to a report by GTM Research.
    • The case, filed by bankrupt panel manufacturer Suniva, would cause equipment prices to spike in the U.S. and prompt installations to fall to as low as 25 GW during 2018-22, down from GTM’s current forecast of 72.5 GW, the report says.
    • The biggest impact of tariffs likely would be felt by large-scale unity solar farms, which compete as an alternative to natural gas, while residential rooftop installations would take a lesser hit, GTM says.

    Big oils can survive at $40 but need $60 to thrive, BMO says

    • Global oil majors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Total (NYSE:TOT) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) can survive in a $40-$50/bbl oil price range but they really need oil above $60 to thrive, according to analysts at BMO Capital.
    • The analysts say that at $40 oil, the group's operating cash flows fail to cover current capex and dividend expectations, even with the aid of scrip, whereas at greater than $50/bbl, the majors should on aggregate be able to match full cash outflows
    • BMO sees only XOM able to cover its full cash dividend at ~$50/bbl in 2017, although the others should be able to organically cover their dividends at $50-$55 with the aid of financial levers such as scrip dividends, project deferrals (for re-engineering), further cost reductions and efficiency gains.
    • General Electric (GE +0.2%) has been a longtime underperformer vs. the S&P 500 and has taken a 13% drubbing YTD, but Barclays analyst Scott Davis makes the stock his new Top Pick, replacing Honeywell (HON +0.4%), as he sees Ge earnings forecasts as too low.
    • Barclays believes the naming of John Flannery as the new CEO, "combined with a bottom-quartile valuation, significant cost-out program, better cash generation, accretion from BHI, and a top-decile dividend yield continue to make GE one of the most compelling stories in our universe."
    • GE's detractors point to an unrealistic earnings ramp through 2018 and weak free cash flow generation, but the firm thinks GE's cash deficit is "largely explainable given structural changes in the business and cyclical headwinds from new product introductions."

    California to list Monsanto's glyphosate as causing cancer

    • California's environmental regulator says it will add glyphosate, the active ingredient in Monsanto's (NYSE:MON) popular Roundup weed killer, to the state's list of chemicals known to cause cancer, effective July 7.
    • The agency says the designation under California's Proposition 65 state law will proceed following an unsuccessful attempt by the company to block the listing in trial court.
    • MON calls the state's action "unwarranted on the basis of science and the law," and has appealed the trial court's decision as it plans to continue its legal challenge.

    Best Buy looks to ride smart home products wave

    • Piper Jaffray analyst Peter Keith thinks Best Buy (BBY +2.1%) is in a good position to benefit from the smart products home trend. Key snippets from the firm's note are posted below.
    • "While Home Depot and Lowe's will participate in Smart Home product adoption, BBY's smaller revenue base provides greater leverage to the cycle."
    • "Additionally, BBY can sell products to strengthen wifi signals throughout homes as consumers add more and more connected devices. Further, BBY recently introduced Best Buy Smart Home by Vivint to provide increased home security and monitoring capabilities. BBY is also remodeling the Smart Home area at the front of the store to expand the product assortment. Finally, the "Connected Home" category has been called out as a key comp driver for each of the last 3 quarters."
    • The suite of "smart" home products offered by the company includes locks, cameras, lights, thermostats and nursery items (BBY Q1 earnings call transcript).

    Blockchain moves into mainstream finance

    • Meet the "Digital Trade Chain Consortium."
    • IBM is building a blockchain-based platform for seven big European banks that will simplify finance transactions for small- and medium-sized businesses.
    • The project, which aims to be up-and-running by the end of the year, will mark one of the first real-world use cases of blockchain technology for financial institutions.

    'Transformers' opens softly for franchise but tops box office

    • Transformers: The Last Knight took over for Cars 3 atop the box office charts over the weekend, but with a Transformers franchise-low opening.
    • The latest Transformers picture from Paramount (VIA +2.7%VIAB +2.9%) drew $44.7M to lead comers, including Wonder Woman (TWX +0.1%), which held its No. 2 spot with $24.9M. Cars 3 (DIS +1.2%) lagged that only slightly, with $24.1M.
    • Wonder Woman is lifting the DC Comics Universe as it plugs away: Now at $318.1M in domestic grosses, it's hit $653.9M on a worldwide basis in four weeks of release.
    • Cars 3 drew just under $100M cumulative domestic in its second week, and added another $11.9M from 26 international markets to bring its global cumulative total to $141.3M.





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Zero Hedge

Hillary Clinton May Challenge Legitimacy Of Presidential Election

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The US presidential election took place nearly one year ago, but to Hillary Clinton it may as well never have ended.

In an interview with NPR, the former first lady said that "if Russian interference turned out to be deeper than previously thought" she wouldn’t rule out challenging its legitimacy or the outcome.

“No, I wouldn't rule it out,” she said.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Record 65% Think Stocks Will Rise Over Course of One Year: Did the Bell Just Ring?

Courtesy of Mish.

Hooray! The latest University of Michigan sentiment survey shows US Stock Market Bullishness Hit an All-Time High.

Poll: Did the Bell Just Ring?

Record 65% Think Stocks Will Rise Over Course of One Year: Did the Bell Just Ring?https://t.co/gzlwtE53iG

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 19, 2017

...

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ValueWalk

Why Do Russia And China Care About North Korea?

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

China and Russia are launching naval drills near North Korea as tensions on the Korean peninsula reach their highest peak in decades. China and Russia — often referred to by analysts as “key” powers in resolving the North Korea crisis — launched their naval exercises not far from the nation’s waters.

Roman Harak / Wikimedia Commons

Neither Moscow nor Beijing links the Russia-China drills to the escalating tensions...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It was somewhat disappointing not to see the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 make the break from resistance. However, the Semiconductor index did manage a breakout of 1,150. There was some weakness into the close but the fact the bearish engulfing pattern has been negated means the bearish overhang created by this pattern has been consumed.


The Russell 2000 made respectable gains as it works towards July highs. I would expect a reversal off 1,450 resistance but if such losses can hold above 1,430 then it will set up a bullish handle f...

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 18, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Top Upgrades
  • RBC Capital upgraded Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) from Sector Perform to Outperform. Applied Materials shares gained 0.19 percent to close at $47.14 on Friday.
  • UBS upgraded Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) from Neutral to Buy. Caterpillar shares rose 1.51 percent to $123.20 in pre-market trading.
  • William Blair upgraded Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ARWR) from Market Perform to Outperform. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals share...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Comparing Bitcoin, Ether, & Other Cryptos

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re probably aware that we’re in the middle of a cryptocurrency explosion. In one year, the value of all currencies increased a staggering 1,466% – and newer coins like Ethereum have even joined Bitcoin in gaining some mainstream acceptance.

And while people like Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan and famed value investor Howard Marks have been extremely critical of cryptocurrencies as of late, many other investors are continuing to ride the wave. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins has noted in the past, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated)

 

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated 9-13-17)

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Updated in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on September 13 , 2017.

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, he devotes a chapter&nbs...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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