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Will We Hold It Wednesday – New Highs Again?

Up and up she goes.  

Now we're watching that 6,000 line on the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures which is up 33% in 18 months and up 40% from the lows of Jan, 2017.  We barely paused at 5,000 and didn't pull back at 5,500 but our first attempt at 6,000 was rejected and, if we call it a 1,500-point run from 4,500, then the "weak" reatracement, according to our 5% Rule™, would be back to 5,700 – and it was.

Holding the weak retracement is a sign of strength – indicicating that it's more likely we're consolidating for a move up than making a sustained move down and now we're testing 6,000 again but now we have to raise the bar and cannot accept more than a 150-point correction (5,850) to stay bullish on the Nasdaq and failing 5,700 would signal the start of a broader correction, down to 5,400 or possibly all the way to 5,000 before stabilizing.  That's why we pressed the hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio (which protects our Long-Term Portfolio) as well as our Options Opportunity Portfolio, though we still didn't find many long plays we wanted to take off the table.

That leaves us, so far, net bullish and more bullish than we thought as we "only" have about $300,000 of downside protection in our Short-Term Portfolio against a Long-Term Portfolio that gained $200,000 (17%) in the past 30 days – very aggressively bullish.  The Nasdaq is up 300 points (5%) since our last LTP review and that in itself calls for at least a 1% correction (60 points), back to 5,840 but that would then be below 5,850 – so you can see why this is such a tricky spot.  

Not much to do but see how the week plays out.  In yesterday's Live Member Chat Room, we took the money and ran on our Tesla (TSLA) short position and we added a long on Chipotle (CMG) towards the close as their sell-off has just gotten silly.  I'm not supposed to be giving away trades but this is such a juicy one I'll tell you what I said to our Members at 2:37:

"CMG Aug $370 calls are $14.30 and were $47 two weeks ago.  Those are a fun way to play for the bounce and you can also, if you are brave, sell the $360 puts for $12.30 to net into the $370s for $2 or CMG for $362 – depending which way it goes."

You're welcome, by the way, for the $600+ per contract gain from the oil short we gave you in yesterday morning's PSW Report.  In the morning report (costs $3/day to subscribe – seems worth it, right?) I said:

"The weak Dollar is also boosting commodites and Brent Oil (/BZ) is at $49.40 while Texas Oil (/CL) is $47.15 and back below the $47 line is a great place to short (with tight stops over) as Ecuador has broken ranks with OPEEC and will be pumping more oil AND, much more important, the EIA projects record US shale output in August that will add another 3.5Mb to our bloated inventories."

This stuff isn't rocket science folks – we read the papers and we make a trade – that's all there is to it!  

We'll be doing a Live Trading Webinar for our Members tomorrow including Futures Trading Techniques – I hope you can join us…  

Our other Futures trade idea in yesterday's morning Report was to short the S&P Futures (/ES) at 2,457.50 and we almost got a 10-point drop for $500 per contract profits but let's call it a 7.5-point drop for $375 per contract profits – also in just two hours "work".  Thanks to yesterday's prop job into the close, we're back to the same level and we like the same short for the same reasons watching the same check-points on the other indexes.  Again, this stuff is not complicated!

The Dollar has stopped dropping so the markets will have to find something else to support them this morning.  If it's not going to be strong earnings then surely the faith we all have in our President and Congress to steer this country correctly will…  Oh, sorry, I was laughing so hard that my coffee came out of my nose…  Anyway, Earnings better be good because our Government is a complete disaster and Europe is in a bit of turmoil and we're waiting for the Bank of Japan to make a rate decision very late tonight and the ECB goes tomorrow with Draghi speaking around 8:30 and Friday we are likely to get a TERRIBLE May Retail Sales Report (based on recent conference calls) so, really, what is there to be so bullish about?

The stronger Dollar can take the markets down, poor retail sales can take us down, low oil prices can take us down, political scandal can take us down (this is nothing so far, the investigation is just starting and you see all this smoke), poor earnings can take us down…  Lots of things can take us down and the only thing keeping us up is Free Money from the Fed (which is going to stop) and dumb money pouring into ETFs.  Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  If you want CASH!!!, by the way, call Reed Hastings (NFLX) – he seems to hate it, saying:

"The irony is the faster we grow, and the faster we grow owned originals, the more drawn on free cash flow that will be," Hastings said. "In some senses the negative free cash flow will be an indicator of enormous success."

See, he measures his success by how much money he loses.  By that logic, instead of being in jail, Bernie Madoff should be put in charge of Treasury, right?  Netflix is, sadly, too scary to short (and that's coming from a guy who shorted Tesla!) but we won't be able to resist as they test resistance at $200 – so we're rooting for another 10%, where we will short the crap out of them. 

Speaking of companies that will ultimately fail – there were 89 banktruptcies in the Energy Sector last year and, according to Bloomberg, we may pass that number this year and, what you have to realize about that number – is that the small, weak companies tend to go BK first – it's the next round that gets worrying and, when you see the number of bankruptcies accellerating over a long period of time – you have to be REALLY worried about the sector.  

Moody’s warned that oil and gas drillers and service providers face a debt load of $110Bn maturing by 2021.  Next year alone, the industry would have to repay $21Bn.  By 2021 this will grow to 29Bn.  What’s more, Moody’s said, 65% of that debt is speculative-grade, or junk.  If oil goes back into the low $40s, all Hell is going to break loose in the energy sector, which in turn will put pressure on our indexes and, of course, if the oil companies start going down, they might drag the banks down with them.  Fun, right?

Unfortunately, shale drillers have entered a vicious circle, succinctly described by oil analyst Michael Fitzsimmons. They boost production because they need to make money to repay their debts. This production growth fuels the global glut and pressures prices, so the drillers actually make less money than they would otherwise. Debt-servicing expenses rise, so drillers need to continue pumping more to make up for lower profit margins.

You have to be quick on your feet in this market and I'll be over at the Nasdaq this morning to discuss a few short-term trading strategies but you already have some of our Futures trading ideas above – we also do stocks and options during the day.

Be careful out there.

- Phil

 


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  1. Good morning! 

    I'll be in NYC this morning at the Nasdaq for FaceBook Live with Jill.  

    Should be back around noon.

    Watch the Dax for weak or strong bounce:

    250-point drop so 50-point weak is 12,450 and then strong is 12,500, which is a nice, significant line too.  If they pop back up, we should be strong too.  

    RUT looking weak, 1,425 is the good/bad line but /ES is the better short play at 2,457.50 with tight stops above.  

    You can use 2,460 too but more likely it pops back over that but once 2,457.50 fails, you should be in good shape.


  2. Good morning, everyone!

    Just a reminder, the usual weekly webinar is tomorrow at 1pm (Eastern).

    Next week we should be back to the regular schedule.


  3. Republicans Take Stock After Health-Bill Setback


  4. The Cities With The Fastest-Growing Wages In 2017




  5. An Early Sign India’s Huge Tax Revamp Is Working: Happy Truck Drivers



  6. 4 good reasons Trump shouldn’t scrap the Iran nuclear deal or goad Iran to pull out


  7. More U.S. households are renting than at any point in 50 years






  8. Global Stocks Boosted by Strong Corporate Earnings


  9. Good Morning.




  10. India fumes as Philip Morris pushes Marlboro on young people


  11. How's the volume been on the way up the last few days. I have to imagine it's been low. 


  12. Does anyone use a broker or service to get premium economy or business class tickets at a discount? I never know what to think of some of the businesses that advertise discounted airfare. 


  13. go gnc!

    FU AMZN!!!


  14. Volume was stronger yesterday,  mostly on the selloff.  

     Jeff, don't forget to check out private jet services,  some of them have really good prices filling empty seats.   

    GreenCoin  is up 250% from yesterday: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/greencoin/ – I guess we should talk about it more.   I think, once we start accepting it as membership payments, that should steady it at a higher level.   Step two will be getting other vendors to start excepting it.  


  15. Phil,

    Capitulated on my /TF and /ES shorts this AM but looking to get back in. How do I figure out now where to short? All indexes above our lines


  16. Frontier Communications Expands Partnership With Vivial to Resell Its Marketing Platform to Business Customers 

    Jul 19, 2017 10:00:00 (ET)
     

    Offering helps businesses integrate online advertising tools to market their business more efficiently

     

    DAYTON, Ohio, July 19, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Frontier Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: FTR) has expanded its partnership with Vivial, a martech company that offers a full range of customer engagement tools, to resell its Marketing Platform in many of Frontier's markets throughout the country.

    "We have partnered with Frontier Communications since 1993, and our relationships with telecommunications companies owned by Frontier date back to the 1930s," said Jim Continenza, Chairman and CEO of Vivial. "Having Frontier as a reseller of our products is a natural next step in this trusted relationship. We look forward to helping them bring new value to their business customers."

    Companies of all sizes are continually looking for effective and efficient ways to connect with customers, especially those who have a high-purchase intent and are ready to act. Through a combination of content marketing, social media, email marketing, and online listing management, Frontier customers can now deliver promotional messages that drive traffic to their websites and customers to their doors.

    "At Frontier Communications, we want to bring value to our customers and meet their ever-changing business needs," said Ken Arndt, Executive Vice President, Commercial Sales. "Expanding our partnership with Vivial gives our customers access to new, leading-edge tools and technology combined with high-touch service."

    ABOUT VIVIAL

    Vivial is a groundbreaking marketing technology (martech) company that offers a full range of customer engagement tools to help businesses enhance the way they connect with customers, build loyalty, manage content and track results. We help businesses of all types increase their visibility using turnkey solutions, allowing our customers to get back to running their business while we work behind the scenes to get them results.

    Vivial's success is highlighted by recognitions such as: "Fifth Hottest Technology Company," Forbes; "Best Local SEO Company," Top SEO; and "Green Initiative" from the prestigious national Communitas Award.

    For more information visit https://vivial.net


  17. AAOI… I have 5 of $60/70 Sept call spread…Should I try and roll up the top, or roll out the top and buy the $60 for a short holding period…I can roll up and out to $90 Jan 2018 for $7 to pick up $20…Phil, what is your view on those kinds of strategies vs just taking the money and looking for a new trade?


  18. Japar –  I would key on the NASDAQ at the moment as the 5900 line  is a great place to be short. The next step is to see what lines up with it and that's 21,550, 2,465 & 1,437.50 with Dax still weak and Dollar 94.60 (climbing is better).   

    AAOI/Millard –  i'm about to go on TV, don't have my optins, remind me later.  


  19.  Boil down 4.7 million barrels, I don't see the rest, I just flashed on CNBC    


  20. Phil// FXP Sep. 22/26 BCS is down quite a bit.  What is the official word?  Do we roll it again?  Thanks.


  21. FXP – Sept is a ways of, kind of an early Aug decision.

    Brent getting near $50, probably $47.50 on /CL, that's worth a short with tight stops above, playing for at least a weak (0.30) pullback to $47.20, so that's the zone to watch   

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=h1


  22. How is AI going to take my job when it can't even take dictation?


  23. SINO/ALL   I opened a position in SINO.  No debt, 13 mil in cash, small float, low PE, growing earnings, 47% net margin, adding about 1.3 mil cash per quarter, unfairly grouped as a shipper when they are in fact a shipping logistics company.  A 20 PE gives it a price of $6.


  24. phil, reminder about AAOI approach


  25. Hanj SINO now why would you buy a 3$ stock without options and now div. payments?


  26. yodi/SINO  Because options are only part my my portfolio.  I have private placements, options, and common stocks.  I don't limit my universe of investments to only those that pay divvies and have options.  REI, OMER as examples.  I also am up +16% in FDN YTD, FFC +12% YTD and TCEHY +7% since 6/20.


  27. Hanj, FDN and FFC possible but the rest not my field


  28. SINO/Hanj – I don't know them but something is odd about their numbers and they are essentially a penny stock with all of their "news" coming off paid PR news wires (self-promoted, no analysts follow them).  Stockopedia is usually good at digging up real numbers and they are not pretty:

    So be careful with them.

    And what Yodi said.

    AAOI/Millard – Well what's a bird in the hand worth?  I assume you have maybe a 100% gain on the spread that's safely in the money and netting $9 out of a possible $10.  It's really too deep in the money to mess around with but the $70s are $26.10 and the Jan $90s are $21 so I would do that roll and buy 2019 $90 ($28.25)/110 ($22) bull call spreads to cover for $6.25 and put stops on the Sept $60s ($35.20) at $34 (under $92.50) and, if you are lucky, you cash the $34 on a dip and pay the short callers less than $20 and retain more than half the 2019 spread and you'll be getting $12+ instead of $10.  Is it worth it?  Not really – it was a good play – time to move on – especially if you have no particular reason to be bearish on them now. 


  29. Phil/SINO  Thanks for your thoughts.  I believe that the earnings they are about to report will put their trailing 12 month at $.45 per share.  Take a 10 PE and we get $4.50.  Industry PE of about 20 is average which puts it at a $9.00.  This is a turnaround story for sure but I like how it got crushed with shipping stocks when they are NOT a shipper nut instead help shippers be more profitable. I also like the cash they generate each quarter.


  30. Phil/SINO part deux  Oh, and I only invested 1% of my total portfolio so not risking a lot, as compared to 15% in REI, 5% OMER, 5% FDN, 5% FFC, 5% BRK.B, 5% TCEHY.  The rest are option spreads and privates that are fixed divvie.


  31. Phil

     

    was this updated ?

    IMAX/Enfil – Yes, we seem to have missed entering that in the portfolio.  Please remind me this afternoon, when I'm back


  32. BA 210 sky is the limit and now engines falling off!!!


  33. Here's the 4 minutes of video that took 3.5 hours of my day (I hate TV!).  Good discussion on our CMG pick (Nas no longer wants specific trades on individual stocks).  The Aug $360 puts have already calmed down to $8.75 (up 30%) and the Aug $370 calls are $21 (up 50%) for net $12.25, which is up $10.25 (510%) from yesterday afternoon, which was pretty much the point I was making about taking those opportunities.  

    SINO/Hanj – If you have specific information that makes you like them and it's a sensible bet, then why not?  I just generally stay away from penny stocks – especially as they get crowded very quickly if I talk about them.  

    IMAX/QC – Yes, fixed now, thanks.  Was really the same as the one in the LTP, which went in from scratch except we already had 5 short puts in the OOP:

    Trump saying it doesn't matter if Obamacare works or not "because it's gone now".  Says single-payer health care will bankrupt the country – so his plan is to bankrupt Americans instead?  What complete BS!

    BA/Yodi – With any luck, they will go cash-flow negative so we'll all see how good they are doing.  Welcome to the New World Order.

    Wow, Trump is blaming the Democrats for the fact they can't even bring a Health Care Bill to the floor?

    While Trump is talking Supreme court just rejected part of his travel ban.  He has officially accomplished absolutely nothing as of day 180.


  34. Phil,

    Where do suggest  rolling the GIS July 57P in the Butterfly Portfolio? I never saw enough of a spike to sell calls, so that is not a very good quarter.


  35. MS – Bullish on GILD & WYNN

    ~Morgan Stanley Research
    analysts have high conviction going into earnings season. Our
    analysts believe that one or more imminent events will drive
    the share price materially over the next 15-60 days.

    ~Wynn Resorts Channel checks suggest that WYNN continued to outperform peers in Macau in 2Q. Consensus assumes WYNN's market share declined
    100bps q/q, we assume it increased 30bps, benefitting from the positive mix shift in the market and continued ramp of its new property.

    ~Gilead Sciences We are ~$450M/~7% ahead on total revenue ($6.7B vs $6.3B) based on a few key revenue drivers around HCV and HIV. We expect QoQ  recovery based on 1Q destocking. With sentiment negative, we think a beat could have an outsized impact on the stock.


  36. BioDeiselChris – I am not sure if this is the best place to post a question. What are your thoughts on Cryptocurrency and greencoin before the August 1st date and best way to play it.


  37. thanks albo!

    hope they are right about GILD!


  38. See, here's the thing about health care.  Trump has (per him) $10Bn and let's say McCain's surgery was $100,000 so taxing Trump 10% more pays for 10,000 life-saving operations.  That means, Trump doesn't give a crap how much an operation costs for him or his family – it can't possibly compare with the cost of taking the position that all lives matter – even poor ones.  

    That's why we "can't afford" Obamcare – it is based on the concept that all men are created equal and entitled to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.  I can't imagine where they got such a preposterous notion or the idea that to secure those rights, Governments should be instituted which derive their powers from the consent of the Governed.  It's just so outrageous, isn't it?  

    In fact, if you read the Declaration of our actual founding fathers (not the idiots who hang tea bags from their hats), you will notice that their first listed grievance against King George was:

    "He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good."

    And also:

    He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

    He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. (Trump was just saying he wants to change the Senate to a simple majority to pass his laws without dissent) 

    He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

    He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

    For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

    For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

    That's about half of the reasons our founding fathers listed for revolting against the King.  Then why do we have to take the same BS from a guy who didn't even win the popular vote?

    GIS/Ross – Hopefully I'll get to that this afternoon.

    GILD/Albo, Jabob – On a pretty good track now.


  39. All/stocks  So, I've got some extra cash in the account beyond what I want my allocation to it to be – anyone care to share their best stock pick for the next 12-24 months?  No options needed as I want to buy the common if possible.  TIA


  40. Hanj – QUIK.  What else did you think I'd say ?


  41. Phil – Countries with single payers systems spend less than we do and achieve as good or better results. What is fascinating again is this fact free environment that these guys live in… Ignore science, facts and common sense. Only dogma matters.


  42. thanks Albo!


  43. Hanj – FWIW.  I've done a lot of work on this tiny company, but as always, I could well be wrong.  Should be more information available in two weeks when they report second quarter results. The only other thing that might be newsworthy is when there is a tear down of the new, and yet to be released, Samsung Gear Fit Pro fitness tracker.  Pretty sure QUIK is designed in. 

    If you are interested in look into it, I suggest you read Jay Deahna's May 15 post on SA for starters.


  44. Boil down 4.7 million barrels, I don't see the rest, I just flashed on CNBC   

    Love it, were you in a trench coat? :)

    Cmon, I know it's a typo, just had me ROTF thinking about it…


  45. July 9th – /CL bottom of last dip from high 52.22 hit low 42.05 the chart indicates last two dips formed upward resistance at $45.50.? What would it take to flush the diehard shorts? A potential 50% retrace of the last dip to $47.13.

    Tomorrow is settlement, high today @ 47.20 and Out.


  46. Hussman's 'Wrecking Ball'. This week's edition from the market's Grim Reaper is definitely worth reading. To his credit, while most pundits are happy yapping on about impending market crashes and claiming credit for successfully forecasting 15 of the last 3 crashes, John actually specifies the month – it's going to happen in the first week of August 2017 - although I might be a little unfair here. Interesting chart also from Doug Short on the amount of margin debt – and it does not look pretty. Sell everything now? It would be a gutsy call but one that has been taken before.


  47. Blesa - Winston – 4 to 6 weeks from now is the earliest. Fed raise in Sept coming.


  48. 2N – what a car, what a man! Are you saying that Chryslers are unreliable?


  49. QCOM – Reports after the close today.


  50. Argh, I'm never getting the Butterfly done today.  Will have to work on it tonight.

    Thinking/Mkucs – Don't please!   The missing letter was "t" after the "I" – changes the sentence considerably. cheeky

    $47.46 was the actual high for oil, played out like we expected so far:

    The strong retrace is $46.90, of course.   

    Sell all/Winston – I agree with Hussman that at least we need to be well-hedged into Aug.


  51. Phil – greencoin is down 46%. the fun of playing digital :)


  52. Qualcomm beats by $0.02, beats on revenue

    Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM): Q3 EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.02.

    Revenue of $5.3B (-12.1% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

    Shares -2.8%.

     


  53. Greencoin/Bulls – Well then it's still buyable!  We have to get some steady commerce with it if it's every going to hold its value consistently.

    Record highs once again.  Will anything stop it?


  54. Something will stop it… but what? When? $64,000 question… Momentum indicators didn't budge today, squiggly lines I know, but today looks totally fake. IWM up over 1%? Nice moves for SPWR, CLF, lots of stuff… blow off top? I do believe tax reform will be just as successful as health care… nada. Seems many disagree, or just no selling waiting to see. Regardless makes no sense to me… but what else is new. Anyone have a better explanation?


  55. Record highs again!!!  Imagine where we would be if Trump actually delivered on any of his agenda items.


  56. Winston – "2N – what a car, what a man! Are you saying that Chryslers are unreliable?"

    No, what is: where Blesa's demise occurred.


  57. Nat    What is your theory on the hit?  I think an answer is blog worthy.



  58. QC/skylux

    I read very mixed reviews on them. Do share if you think it's good. 


  59. Q4’17 Guidance*

    Revenues

    $5.4B – $6.2B

    Non-GAAP(1) combined R&D and SG&A expenses

    Increase 1% – 3% sequentially

    Non-GAAP(1) diluted EPS(2)

    $0.75 – $0.85

    MSM chip shipments

    205M – 225M

    QCT EBT margin %

    17% – 19%

    QTL revenues(3)

    $1.0B – $1.3B

    QTL EBT margin %

    64% – 68%

    FY’17 Guidance

    Combined investment and other income and interest expense

    FY’17 roughly flat versus FY’16

    QCOM Earnings in line with my estimates ( given the some non payment of royalties by AAPL suppliers) new customer has not begun holding payments as well.  Outlook for Q4 has good / above consensus revenue growth but EPS low due to royalties (again).  

    Q3’17 Q3’17 Guidance Results**

    Revenues

    $4.8B – $5.6B^

    $5.4B

    Non-GAAP(1) diluted EPS(2)

    $0.75 – $0.85^

    $0.83

    MSMTM chip shipments

    180M – 200M*

    187M

     

     


  60. QCOM – will need to adjust to new / lower margin business model, however still positive on the NXP acquisition completing this year.  


  61. jeffdoc 

     Ok 

    can you send me a link to the reviews  The reviews I attach were good 


  62. QC

    Sort by newest. People on this thread seemed to have some issues with them. 

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.nz/ShowTopic-g1-i12290-k7559282-SkyLux_Online_Travel_Agent-Bargain_Travel.html


  63. Hi All – In case you missed my interview about climate change, it's posted here in the members' corner section: http://www.philstockworld.com/2017/07/18/why-we-need-to-act-on-climate-change-now-2/ (Please "tweet" or share on FB if you can.) 


  64. @batman – QCOM, I see the stock down only 1.5% so doesn't look that bad and it is still the cheapest among premier semi companies.  Already sporting a 4+% div yield.   Lets see how it trades tomorrow.  I will DD if the stock goes below $50, especially given the NXP acquisition coming along.


  65. Phil oil hit 47.40 earlier in the day and then retraced to 47, so can we say that has already happened or are we still looking for that? Seems like oil should be able to move higher with inventories finally drawing down and Saudis still talking cuts if necessary, no?


  66. jeffdoc 

     Thanks, see what you mean

     Have you had any lucky with someone else


  67. QC

    No, I've never done anything but use points to offset costs of upgrades etc…so that's essentially paying. 


  68. Learner. AAPL.  .  The revenue is up fairly high 6% on hardware. Profit is down due to royalty non payment.  I have some short calls at 57.5 that will probably expire worthless thus week. I also have short some 52.5 puts On the call it was clear aapl is plying hardball by by having vendors miss payments and imdemnifying them.  They are also assuming no resolution next qtr outlook.  I think they are a ways off in resolution and if other customers stop paying it will get ugly.  They seemed positive on closing nxp deal this year but analysts were questioning the price thinking the longer this draws up the more pressure to raise price.   They have 36B in cash but fcf is almost 0.   I'm thinking this may drop to 50.  Think at that point I will get heavier on this.  


  69. Jeffdoc/ McCain

    My mother passed away five years ago from what McCain was diagnosed. Have the treatments gotten any more effective? My mom lasted about 16 mos. after she was diagnosed. Very sad.  I hope he fares better.


  70. Inside Facebook’s AI Workshop





  71. Good morning! 

    Oil back at $47.50 and Brent $49.89 so I like /CL short as long as /BZ isn't over $50.

    Indexes are out of control but I'm scaling into a /TF short from here (1,442) to 1,450 and hopefully rejected there.  Waiting on the ECB rate news.  


  72. /KCU7 back at $135, almost a tempting short there!  

    Tax Reform/Mkucs – They can't do tax reform at all if they don't repeal Obamacare (and free up budget money to move to tax breaks).  That's why they are so desperate to get it done now – their sponsors are going to be pissed if they don't get a return on their campaign investments.  What they are doing now is simply sick – throwing 32M people off health care with no replacement at all.  They are essentially killing 5,000 people a month – those people will die, it's a statistical fact.  They can pretend all they want but they know they are killing people for money.

    The number of uninsured persons would increase by 17 million in 2018 under the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act (ORRA) compared to the rules already in place. That amount increases to 27 million in 2020, then 32 million additional uninsured by 2026.

    The CBO estimates that the plan would decrease deficits by $473 billion by the end of the next 10 years.

    $47Bn a year for 165M taxpayers is $284 per taxpayer.  Do you think ANYONE's health care won't go up $284 a year without Obamacare protections.  How many deaths do you want on your conscience for the sake of saving $284?  500,000 people will die over the same 10 years – and that's optimistic as poor health care can lead to the spread of epidemics (like it does in other 3rd World Countries that also have a callous disregard for the lives of their fellow countrymen).  

    We can only hope they are right and there is a Hell, because surely they are all going there. 

    The Republican Hypocrisy Hall of Fame

    Image may contain: stripes, drink and coffee cup

    The Justice Department announced a new federal policy Wednesday to help state and local police take cash and property from people suspected of a crime, even without a criminal charge, reversing an Obama administration rule prompted by past abuse by police.

    Nice job Ilene, I like that format.

    Oil/Craigs – As noted above, I think there's not enough positives for /BZ to crack $50 so that's $47.50 for us and we can keep playing it short until it breaks.  Actually, /BZ right at $50 now and we're at $47.55 so really that's the line (I have 4 short at $47.50 avg).  If the Saudis do announce cuts, we'll pop right over so it's a dangerous play (and into the weekend makes it more so).  


  73. /NG > Phil, thoughts on /NGZ7 at $3.26 (90 day heat forecast looks positive)?