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Second Quarter GDP Forecasts Inching Towards Convergence Around Two Percent

Courtesy of Mish.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Nowcast forecast today. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast was updated on July 14 and again on July 19.

The GDPNow forecast is up from July 14, but way lower from the preceding cast. Meanwhile, the Nowcast inched back above the two percent mark for the first time since June 9.

The overall tendency at this point is convergence at or slightly above two percent.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — July 19, 2017

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on July 19, up from 2.4 percent on July 14. The forecast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.6 percent to -0.6 percent after this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”

FRBNY Nowcast Latest forecast: 2.0 percent — July 21, 2017

GDPNow Contributions to GDP Estimates


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