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Tempting Tuesday – S&P 2,500 in Sight

Beat crazy!  

With the very notable exception of Google (GOOGL), who had higher than expected Traffic Acquisition Costs, most of today's reporting companies are nicely green and oil (USO) is back to our shorting line at $47.20 (/CL Futures) after yeasterdsay's failure to turn back down from $46.50, which is a loss of $700 per contract if you did not heed our warning, in yesterday morning's PSW Report, to use tight stops.

Nonethelss, you can be redeemed by doubling down at $47.20, which would raise your short average to $46.85 and then get out of at least half even there and back to tight stops above $47.25, which we shouldn't even see if oil remains weak.  That lines up with $49.50 on Brent Oil (/BZ) – which also should be a point of non-futile resistance.  

Seagate (STX) just missed and is down 20% and that does not bode well for Amazon (AMZN), who we've been shorting to no avail, as the only place they make any money is cloud storage.  That's right, turns out it's not profitable to pack and ship you a $3.99 case of Pepsi overnight – who'd have thought?  I was at the post office yesterday, contemplating what a stupid business Amazon really is.  Yes, it's nice that they can ship me all that stuff but, even at the post office, shipping costs are expensive and AMZN doesn't MAKE the stuff they ship, they only get a commission on it.  Even if they send you a book, where they take 30% of the sale price – by the time they pack, wrap and ship it to you – it's break-even at best.

Related imageThat's why Amazon doesn't have any real competition – there's no money in their business, why would anyone compete?  Don't get me wrong, you can sell the crap out of a service that doesn't make any money because the people will love it but how long before they wise up?  For instance, I was at the super market and I saw Starbucks (SBUX) Cold Brew Cofee with cream, cocoa and honey – 3 things I like in coffee so, even though it was $4, I had to buy one and it was good (long SBUX!) but $4 is ridiculous so I went to good old Amazon to see if I could save money by buying in bulk.

Amazon had it all right, but at $28.50 and I was going to buy it but then I realized it was not for a case, but for 4 bottles – that's $7.12 each!  $7.12 is much more than $4 – and I have to say that because it's come to my attention we have Conservative readers, who aren't good with facts or math or logic…  Anyway, paying 78% more through Amazon is not a habit most can afford and I've come to notice almost everything I buy on Amazon is expensive because I installed the Wikibuy extension to my browser (Chrome), which pops up and tells you what an idiot you are for overpaying for things (it finds you better prices on other sites automatically while you shop).  

Image result for smart phone shopping cartoonWhat happens to Amazon when our phones get smarter and our computers get smarter and they learn how to save you money on everything you order?  That will quickly level the playing field for other vendors as your phone is quite happy to check out 1,000 different sites while you wait a few nano-seconds and then it will give you exactly what you want for the lowest price that's shipped when you want it – do you then care who it's actually from?  

Amazon is a fast, convenient way for you to buy things and it "knows you" and shows you things you probably want but these are all things that AI will be doing for you shortly and AI will be learning to do it for you personally, learning all your likes and dislikes and, unlike Amazon, your personal AI will be motivated to save you money.  

That's because AI's will be sold based on what they can do for YOU, the AI-sellers will make their money by helping you spend less and be more efficient when you shop, work, etc.  The best companies already use Artificial Intelligence to maximize efficiency and minimize costs – it will be great for consumers when you have that same power in your hand but not so great for retailers when their magins begin to collapse and absolutely awful for middle-man businesses like Amazon, when their technological advantage disappears.  

AMZN is hovering around $1,040 and I'm very surprised they aren't down pre-market off Seagate's poor earnings.  I imagine people think AMZN is taking market share from STX but, as I have told our Members for years, ultimately, cloud storage is a commodity and it will ultimately lose it's margins, no matter how big it grows.  Amazon announces earnings on Thursday and the January $1,100 puts can be bought for $101.50 and the January $1050 puts can be sold for $72.50 which is net $29 on the $50 spread that's in the money to start.  If you are really brave, you can sell the $1,200 calls for $21.50 and that drops the net of the spread to $7.50 with a potential $42.50 (566%) profit if AMZN is below $1,050 come January expirations.  

I'm not saying that this particular earnings will be the end of Amazon's 40% run for the year but we do like $1,050 as a pullback level per our 5% Rule™ and the 300-point rally is very likely to give us a 60-point pullback (weak) to $990 or possibly a stronger one to $930, which offered very brief resistance on the way up.  

It also helps our cause that, even if AMZN doesn't miss and makes the anticipated $1.42 per share for the Quarter, that only keeps them on track for MAYBE earning $7 for the year which is 1/150th of $1,050 – that's kind of expensive for a tech company and insanely expensive for a retail company and even ridiculous for a storage company.  After all, Seagate has a p/e of just 16 yet they just took a 20% hit on their earnings!  

Image result for amazon pe multipleLike CostCo, Amazon makes most of their money selling memberships to their customers, not from selling the actual stuff.  Their net profit margins are lower than COST even though their gross profits are higher.  That's those packing and shipping costs eating into the margins and they can automate it all they want but it still costs more than having people come by and picking up their own stuff so Big Box Retailers will always have that advantage over Amazon.  

The mall by my house (Willowbrook) uses a new service called Deliv that, for $5, delivers anything(s) in the mall to your home the same day.  Again, once my phone gets smarter and the vendors begin chipping in to make that service free to me – what exactly do I need Amazon for?  These are not today problems for Amazon but they are certainly tomorrow problems and you don't pay 150 times earnings for companies with tomorrow problems, do you? 

The markets are very enthusiastic into tomorrow's Fed meeting and they certainly haven't let us down in quite a while but I'm more of a mind to short at 5,940 on the Nasdaq (/NQ) and 1,445 on the Russell (/TF) as long as the Dow is below 21,650 (/YM) and the S&P needs to be below 2,480 (/ES).  We're long the Dollar (/DX) at $93.50 and long Natural Gas (/NG) at $2.925 so we'll see how those go – along with our Oil shorts (/CL).  

 


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  1. Good morning! Interesting article this morning on WPM (he's bullish). https://seekingalpha.com/article/4090054-feeling-defensive-best-way-gold-bar-none?ifp=0&app=1


  2. Good Morning.


  3. Good Morning Phil,  Thank you as always for the feedback!   

    Phil,  Couple questions…  When trading futures, outside of rolling my position…. does the product decay? For example, if I enter a position and it goes against me, like NG.  Is it okay to hold on?  Is it a newbie mistake to look at it as… money in the bank.  

    2) Is there a range you work within, when you say tight stops?   


  4. Financials up big.


  5. coffee..ouch


  6. Bond market getting hit. 

    Biggest down day on bonds since February.


  7. A WYNN miss sure would be nice this afternoon…


  8. Phil great write on AMZN, While we with STX we do have a good example what a 20% drop looks like.

    Yestreday I had and still have the STX BCS Jan 18 30/40 however with Jan 25 and 35 short puts: closed the puts yesterday, which I sold originally for 4.90 and 11.77, for .39 and 2.28. the same puts are trading today for .86 and 4.80. My BCS which was well ITM yesterday has lost just in one day some 350$ per one option play!!!! Did I not sell the puts yesterday I would have lost an other 300$ just on a one option play. Obviously my conservative play in STX was 4x the BCS and 4x and 2x the puts.

    So whatever is looking good today, watch out for the bubble!

    Now this is a typical example what can happen on a 20% drop.!!!


  9. Good morning! 

    Nice tick down in the indexes but /TF already bounced (still in).  Dow dropped 100 points off the high already!  

    DAX was only a weak bounce:

    Euro Stoxx backing off as well.  

    But nobody's worried:

    Good article Jet.  

    You're welcome Joseph.  No, Futures don't decay but, towards the end of a contract, there can be panic selling by people who don't REALLY want the commodity delivered to them (like you).  You have to learn to take gains (and losses) off the table and have a good stopping discipline – which includes using stops to lock in your profits.  As to tight stops, generally I try not to lose more than $50 because I tend to take $250 or $500 off the table so one win wipes out 5 to 10 losses.  That helps keep the odds in my favor, even if I make a few bad picks.  

    Coffee/Jabob – NOW it's getting interesting for a re-entry (/KCU7) at $130.   Actually, I'd rather go /KCH8 at this point, which is $136.85 and very thinly traded so you need serious conviction to play it. 

    Still, we need to find out why it collapsed 5% in 2 days first.  Check out how speculators have gotten out of the coffee trade:

    They don't have a history of having good timing. 

    It's possible that people are dumping short-term contracts because a force majeure would invalidate them.  

    Cuba still targets 2017 coffee output rebound 

    The benefit of cold brew is twofold: it uses more than twice the amount of ground beans, and it does battle against the efficient single-serve pods that have whittled coffee use and waste. In the 12 months ended in February, sales of cold brew in the U.S. were up about 80 percent over the prior year, according to estimates from Cedarhurst, New York-based researcher StudyLogic. Sales of hot coffee fell 3 percent over the same period. Americans drank 105 billion cups in the 12 months ended in May, StudyLogic Chief Operating Officer Samuel Nahmias said.

    “We don’t typically have a product driving growth, but right now cold brew is doing that for us,” said a buoyant Jonathan Del Re, a former mergers and acquisitions banker. He owns Dallis Bros. Coffee, a roasting company in Long Island City, Queens, and Lacas Coffee in Philadelphia. “This is going to be the summer of cold brew.”

    Whereas it takes 6 to 7 ounces (0.2 kilograms) of beans to make a gallon of hot coffee, cold brew needs 1 pound, according to Michael Kapos, a third-generation coffee roaster and vice president of sales at Downeast Coffee Roasters in Pawtucket, Rhode Island. That drives the cost of each cup higher — at a Starbucks store in midtown Manhattan, a medium cup of regular hot coffee sells for $2.67 while cold brew goes for $3.76.

    Total U.S. coffee consumption is projected to be a record in 2017-18, up 1.5 percent. That gain lags a 4.4 percent rise a year earlier, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show.

    STX/Yodi – That's my long-standing objection to them and WDC, VMW, etc. coming to pass but it's taken years to play out.  Good job with your adjustments.  


  10. I added one long /KCH8, just to remind myself to keep an eye on it.  $136.90.  


  11. FCX – Up huge !

    Covered some.


  12. Phil – Citi bank

    I am holding some stock of Citi bank and their ex dividend date is Aug 3rd. Should I hold the stock for dividends or buy CMG ?

    Thanks as always

    Pat


    • July Consumer Confidence121.1 vs. 117.0 consensus; 117.3 (revised) in June.
    • Present situation Index 147.8 vs. 143.9 prior
    • Expectations Index 103.3 vs. 99.6 prior.

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales+2.1% Y/Y vs. +2.0% last week.
    • Month-to-date sales up 2.2% through July 22.
    • Looking ahead, Back-to-school sales tax holidays in sixteen states are on the way.

    • survey of German business confidence rose unexpectedly in July to set a record high. The Ifo Business Climate Index blazed in at 116.0 to top the 114.9 mark anticipated by economists. "Sentiment among German businesses is euphoric," according to Ifo chief Clemens Fuest.

    • No action is expected by the Fed this week, but tomorrow's policy statement will be parsed for clues about the chances of a September rate hike.
    • The Fed, however, is no longer the only hawkish major central bank. In fact, with a few FOMC members publicly voicing reservations about any further tightening this year, the Fed before long may find itself among the more dovish of the central banks.
    • Dollar traders seem to be betting that way. The greenback (UUP -0.2%) continues its steep 2017 downtrend, now returning to levels seen early last summer.
    • At or near multi-year highs vs. the dollar: The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE), loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC), swissie (NYSEARCA:FXF), and aussie (NYSEARCA:FXA).
    • The FOMC begins a two-day meeting today. The gathering of Fed policy makers is expected to be on the uneventful side, although central bank watchers will be looking to see if the committee announces the start time of balance sheet normalization. A FOMC policy statement is due out on Wednesday afternoon.

     

    • The Fed Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting Tuesday amid fewer expectations than last time that they will raise short-term interest rates, but eyes on whether there are clues for future hikes and the unwinding of a bond portfolio.
    • In anticipation, the dollar is holding just above a 13-month low against a basket of currencies after recent weakness in inflation.
    • Without a rate hike on the agenda, the panel is likely to give a hint to how and when it will start reducing its bond holdings, with many (including Barclays) expecting that effort to begin in September.
    • The dollar is off 0.2% against yen, and the euro is up 0.2% against the dollar, the pound up 0.1%.

    China reportedly boosts defense preparations along North Korean border

    We Are Tired Of Being Killed" Venezuelan Opposition Vows Violent Response To Maduro Power Grab

    Even the Fed has one particular corner of the real estate market on its worry list

    Can Financials Lead With A Flattening Yield Curve

     

    • via Telis Demos and  Christina Rexrode at the WSJ
    • "The jig is up," says James Gilligan, the assistant treasurer at Great Plains Energy. He's referring to banks no longer being able to get away with offering 0% (or close to that) deposit rates after a series of Fed interest rate hikes.
    • No bank wants to lose customers, but they're not going to lose a ton of sleep over a few John Does doing some rate shopping. Big corporate depositors, however, are a different story, and treasurers are using that leverage to demand and win better rates.
    • The average interest rate paid by U.S. banks rose to 0.34% in Q2 from 0.26% a year earlier, and bankers say business customers are behind the rise. "We defend our turf," says Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB) chief Tayfun Tuzun. A typical corporate deposit rate is nearly 1%, he says, vs. the average retail savings rate of 0.18% (as computed by Jefferies).
    • Previously: Depositors unite? Banks aren't raising rates (July 12)

     

    Carlyle Is Said to Target $15 Billion for U.S. Buyout Fund

    Even Schwab(SCHW) Is Warning Retail Clients Of "Danger Signs Rising"

    Nasdaq Rebounds To Record Highs As T-Bill Turmoil Continues

     

    • Oil futures are on the rise again today on new hopes for market balance, a day after an OPEC meeting that drew promises from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to cut back on exports and production.
    • Light sweet crude is up 0.6% in Globex electronic trading, to $46.62/barrel, and Brent crude is up 0.6% to $48.87 in London trading.
    • Production cuts are having a mild impact so far, but Chinese demand is still in play and the country is aggressively building stockpiles, says Energy Aspects.
    • Meanwhile, OPEC's explanation for why crude prices have remained low is shifting from blame on U.S. shale drillers to its own members; the cartel is considering a crackdown on members that aren't sticking to production-limit promises.

    Barclays Oil Sale Triggers a Huge Number of Trades in Exotic OptionsBarclays Plc sold the last part of its oil book to an unidentified buyer, triggering a surge in trading of exotic options written in the era of higher crude prices, according to people familiar with the matter. The sale was signaled by several large options trades at 9:35 a.m. in London in some of the world’s major oil markets including West Texas Intermediate crude, where 48 million barrels of contracts changed hands. That represents more than a quarter of the entire volume on an average trading day.

    Anadarko(APC) Cuts Drilling Plan as Oil Explorers Bow to Slump

    Peak Shale: Anadarko Just Became The First US Oil Producer To Slash CapEx

    Goldman Sachs(GS) warns global oil demand could peak as early as 2024

    US and EU on collision course over Russia pipeline sanctions

     

    • Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM+1.7% premarket after routing Q2 earnings expectations as revenues rose 12% Y/Y and production improved, more than offsetting losses from slightly lower realized gold prices.
    • NEM says Q2 attributable gold production gained 13% to 1.4M oz., as new production from Merian and Long Canyon more than offset lower grades at Tanami and Yanacocha; gold CAS was $664/oz. vs. $661 in the prior-year quarter, and gold AISC was $884/oz. compared to $913 a year ago, primarily due to lower sustaining capital and higher sales volumes.
    • NEM ended Q2 with $3.1B in cash on hand, a leverage ratio of 0.6x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and one of the best credit ratings in the mining sector
    • For FY 2017, NEM forecasts improved attributable gold production of 5M-5.4M oz., as full-year production at Merian and Long Canyon more than offset declines at Twin Creeks and Yanacocha; 2018 production guidance is unchanged at 4.7M-5.2M oz.
    • FY 2017 CAS guidance improves to $675-$715/oz., AISC guidance improves to $900-$950/oz., and capex guidance is lowered to $890M-$990M; capex guidance for 2018 is unchanged at $900M-$1B.

     

    • Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX+1.9% premarket after Q2 earnings miss consensus estimates but its $0.17/share profit compares to a $0.02 loss in the same period last year.
    • FCX says it is encouraged by recent progress in talks with Indonesia to resolve the lengthy permit dispute for its Grasberg mine, but will pursue arbitration if it is unable to reach an agreement on long-term mining rights.
    • FCX says Q2 copper sales of 942M lbs. were lower than its April estimate of 975M lbs., primarily reflecting the impact of worker absenteeism on mining and milling rates in Indonesia, as well as year-ago Q2 sales of 987M lbs., reflecting anticipated lower ore grades in North America and lower leach production and recoveries in South America.
    • FCX forecasts FY 2017 consolidated sales of ~3.7B lbs. of copper, 1.6M oz. of gold and 93M lbs. of molybdenum?; for Q3, the company sees consolidated sales of 940M lbs. of copper, 375K oz. of gold and 22M lbs. of molybdenum.

     

    • Allegheny Technologies (NYSE:ATI): Q2 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.02.
    • Revenue of $880M (+8.6% Y/Y) beats by $3.88M.
    • Shares +1.5% PM.
    • Press Release

    Nucor(NUE) CEO says the US is losing a 'trade war' in steel to 'predatory countries like China'

    AK Steel opens +7% after big Q2 earnings beat

    • AK Steel (AKS +7.7%) surges at the open after easily beating Q2 earnings estimates, saying its strong performance highlights continued benefits achieved through strategic initiatives it implemented during the past year and a half.
    • AKS says Q2 shipments declined 6% Y/Y to 1.46M tons mainly resulting from a decrease in automotive demand, but the average selling price jumped 11% Y/Y to $1,058/ton from $957, primarily due to a higher average selling price on both contract and spot market sales and higher surcharges on specialty steel products.
    • Other steel names are running higher, with X +4%NUE +2.5%STLD +2.9%CMC +3.4%; another possible catalyst for the steel sector is the Section 232 decision, which could be announced today when Pres. Trump holds a rally in Youngstown, Ohio.

    • General Motors (NYSE:GMreports consolidated EBIT-adjusted of $3.7B and EBIT-adjusted margin of 10.0%.
    • The automaker says it recorded North America EBIT-adjusted of $3.5B and EBIT-adjusted margin of 12.2%.
    • Global deliveries were flat during the quarter due to a strategic decision to back away from the daily rental market in North America. GM ended the quarter with global market share of 11.5%.
    • GM says that its return on invested capital-adjusted of 30.4% is ahead of its target of 25%.
    • GM CEO Mary Barra: "Disciplined and relentless focus on improving our business performance led to a strong quarter and very solid frst half of the year. We will continue transforming GM to capitalize on growth opportunities and deliver even more value for our shareholders."
    • Previously: General Motors beats by $0.20, misses on revenue (July 25)
    • GM +2.04% premarket to $36.55.

     

    • Caterpillar (CAT +4.4%) leads early Dow gainers following its strong Q2 earnings beat and guidance bump, and Goldman Sachs analyst Jerry Revich thinks the stock has more room to run.
    • CAT’s dealer inventories and incentive compensation suggest significant scope for further 2018 EPS upside, Revich says as he reiterates a Buy rating as part of the firm's Conviction Buy List.
    • J.P. Morgan's Ann Duignan calls the results a solid beat and raise even as expectations were high coming into the quarter.
    • Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann says "CAT is in the cycle sweet spot, demonstrating massive leverage as the cycle normalizes and revenues return faster than costs, [but] the question is sustainability, both as comparisons get tougher and as costs begin to trickle back in to the model."
    • Also, Jim Cramer says CAT's report was the "most serious beat and raise of the earnings season" and the stock will continue to climb

    JetBlue rallies after unit revenue impresses

    • JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) flies in early trading after Q2 results impress.
    • The carrier reports yield per passenger mile jumped 5.7% to $0.1360. Passenger revenue per available seat mile improved 5.9% to $0.1159.
    • JetBlue's operating expense per available seat mile increased 6.8% to $0.1045 (+5.1% to $0.0816 ex-fuel).
    • "Our second quarter unit revenue exceeded our initial guidance as a result of our targeted revenue initiatives and a solid demand environment," says JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes.
    • JBLU +3.03% premarket to $23.45.

    More on Supervalu's Q1 results

    • Supervalu (SVU +4%) reports Wholesale net sales rose 12.4% to $2.56B in Q1, primarily due to sales to new customers and increased sales to new stores operated by existing customers.
    • Retail net sales squeezed 2.7% to $1.39B and identical store sales down 4.9%.
    • Gross margin rate fell 80 bps to 13.8% primarily due to the change in business segment mix, with Wholesale representing a larger portion of total sales and gross profit.
    • Adjusted SG&A expense rate improved 50 bps to 11.8%.
    • Operating margin rate declined 70 bps to 1.7%.
    • FY2018 Guidance: Net earnings from continuing operations: $51M to $70M; Adjusted EBITDA: $475M to $495M.

    Comparable sales dazzle for McDonald's

    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) reports global comparable-store sales increased 6.6% in Q2 vs. +4.0% consensus. Total revenue was down 3%, while operating income rose 24% to $2.30B vs. $2.19B consensus estimate.
    • Comparable-store sales increased 3.9% in the U.S. to top the consensus estimate for a 3.2% gain. The cold beverage value promotion and launch of the premium sandwich platform were traffic drivers in the quarter.
    • International Lead Markets segment comparable-store sales rose 6.3% vs. +3.3% expected, while comparable sales increased 7.0% in the High Growth Markets segment vs. +3.6% expected.
    • "We're building on our momentum, leveraging our size and scale and executing with greater precision against our priorities to retain, regain and convert customers by giving them even more reasons to visit and enjoy McDonald's," notes CEO Steve Easterbrook.
    • Previously: McDonald's beats by $0.11, beats on revenue (July 25)
    • MCD +2.83% premarket to $156.14 (all-time high is $156.75).

    Activist investor thinks Barnes & Noble is worth a billion

    • Shares of Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) race higher in premarket action after Sandell Asset Management takes a "meaningul" stake in the retail chain.
    • Sandell on BKS: "It is our opinion that the public market for retail stocks is contributing to a risky and inhospitable environment under which the stock price of Barnes & Noble may not fairly reflect its intrinsic value anytime in the foreseeable future if it remains a stand-alone company."
    • "Even at a purchase price of $1 billion, or close to double the current market value of BKS, such a price would be a 'rounding error' compared to the market value of a host of internet or media companies looking for a retail presence, with the added benefit being that Barnes & Noble is already in the same fundamental business, namely the distribution of information."
    • Previously: Activist Sandell buying up Barnes & Noble stake to push for sale (July 25)
    • BKS +11.97% premarket to $7.95 vs. a 52-week trading range of $6.25 to 413.63.
    • Deutsche Bank lowers Under Armour (UAUAA) to a Sell rating after having the athletic apparel stock lined up at Hold.
    • Analyst Paul Trussell cites a "difficult and promotional" selling environment for Under Armour in making its bearish call.
    • The firm's price target of $17 reps 16% downside potential on Under Armour.
    • UAA -2.81% premarket to $19.70.

     

    • Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) agrees to acquire Jimmy Choo (OTCPK:JYMHF) for $1.2B. The company expects to grow Jimmy Choo sales to $1B a year and create long-term operational synergies with the MK business.
    • The deal follows a move earlier this year by luxury rival Coach (NYSE:COH) to snap up Kate Spade.
    • Shares of Michael Kors are down 19% YTD.

    • Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) announce that they are expanding their strategic cooperation to further integrate their platforms, supply chains and customer resources in China.
    • The expanded partnership includes cooperation in inventory integration, customer integration and store/platform integration.
    • "Since forming our strategic partnership with JD.com in June of last year, we have continued to expand our omni-channel strategy to better serve customers and grow our business in China," says Wal-Mart China e-commerce exec Ben Hassing.
    • Source: Press Release

    Snopes.com Implodes, Resorts To GoFundMe

    Seagate announces new CEO, restructuring plan cutting 600 jobs

    • Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STXannounces some corporate changes alongside this morning’s earnings miss including the appointment of Dave Mosely to CEO, effective October 1.  
    • Mosely previously served as the company’s President and COO.
    • Current CEO Steve Luczo will become Executive Chairman. 
    • Seagate also announces a restructuring plan that will cut about 600 jobs, which the company expects to result in a $50M charge in 1Q18. 
    • Seagate says the restructuring will save about $90M on an annual run rate basis.
    • Seagate shares are down 17.38%.  
    • Previously: Seagate Technology misses Q4 estimates; shares down over 18% premarket (July 25)
    • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) will enter the smart speaker market with a model meant to take on Amazon’s Echo Show, according to Digitimes supply chain sources.
    • Facebook’s entrant would focus more on the 15-inch touch panel, made by LG Display, than on a proprietary voice assistant like the other smart speaker models.
    • The recently released Echo Show has a 7-inch screen and the voice assistant Alexa.  
    • Manufacturer Pegatron Technology has reportedly started small volume production on the speaker with a potential release in 1Q18.
    • Facebook could struggle to find a market place between the established voice assistant devices from Amazon and Google and the more audio-focused devices like Apple’s upcoming HomePod, which would launch just before Facebook’s product.  
    • Previously: Echo Dot tops voice assistant devices in units; Google Home wins revenue (June 29)

    Alphabet(GOOGL) stock drops on concerns that revenue growth is going to cost more

    Foxconn Plans $7 Billion U.S. Investment

    • Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOMannounces the public availability of the Neural Processing Engine software development kit for use on the Qualcomm Developer Network.
    • The software development kit, or SDK, helps developers of AI-based apps get the app ready to run on Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 600 and 800 processors.
    • The SDK helps spread out the app’s workload for better efficiency and performance. 
    • The Neural Processing Engine can work with developers beyond the mobile market including automotive, healthcare, and security.  
    • Previously: Apple, too, is working on a dedicated AI chip (May 27)
    • Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOMfires back at a tech lobbying group taking Apple’s side in the ongoing legal battle between the two companies.
    • Qualcomm said the import ban doesn’t concern Intel’s chips but rather the Qualcomm-patented tech surrounding those chips in the current iPhones. 
    • The company said the ban wouldn’t hurt competitors for long and that “Apple can purchase and utilize any LTE modem it chooses so long as it does not infringe Qualcomm’s asserted patents.” 
    • Qualcomm then provides the names of some LTE modem chip suppliers including MediaTek, Samsung, and Marvell Technology.
    • Previously: Tech lobbying group backs Apple in Qualcomm dispute (July 21)

    Trump: Senate Republicans 'have not done their job' on ending 'Obamacare nightmare'

    Former CIA Director Calls For A Coup If Trump Fires Mueller


  13. FCX/Albo – Our target in the LTP was $12, so we're in good shape!  

    See, we picked up a nice, conservative spread at the lows and it took off too fast for us to sell puts so, when we got another dip that held, we sold some puts to drop the net cost of the $12,500 spread from $4,425 to $975 and it was 7 months between adjustments.  PATIENCE is what you guys have to learn!  

    You have to think of your trades in terms of years, not days or weeks…

    C/Pat – Oh come on, you know what I'm going to say!  C is going to pay you 0.16 for not buying CMG until Aug 4th.  As long as CMG doesn't go up more than 0.16 between now and then, you won't regret it, right?  Don't be silly!  


  14. GOOGL looks like it wants to break lower once the dip buyers exhaust themselves:

    Trump must be shorting AMZN too:


  15. My ill-timed JCP bottom play is now solidly profitable.  Closed out 1/2.


  16. Of course, don't overlook how dumbfounding it is that this is a tweet from the President of the United States.  He's been on a tear the past two days:

    Notice a lot of energy put into setting up Sessions firing.  Also, he seems to be accusing the head of the FBI with being on the take???  OK guys, those of you who are proud to have voted for Trump should take this opportunity to tell us how this is a good thing.  I really don't see how it would be but I'm curious.  


  17. When exactly will Trump just set fire to a copy of the Constitution on the South Lawn?

     

    Btw loving CLF today!!!


  18. Oil ripping pretty good. Looks like maybe 50 area would be the next short possibility.  Have the Saudi's finally regained control over OPEC? Back to the lineups at the pumps just like in the 70's I suppose


  19. I'm curious as well…..


  20. Anyone know why /CL just exploded up?


  21. Trump/Phil

    Trump is shaking from Mueller.  He's all ready to pardon everyone in his family but he can't pardon himself.  He knows now that they will be looking into his finances going back 10 years that he is toast.  He's just trying to figure out how to fire people to keep delaying this.  He will end up ruining his brand that he could've just sat back and continued to make billions on but he is ruled by his ego.  So he is ruining the family business and the country at the same time.  Also he's too much of a coward to fire Sessions so he is making it as uncomfortable as he can so Sessions resigns of his own "free" will.


  22. Anyone watch the docuseries by CNN, the 60's, the 70's, the 80's or currently the 90's?  These are so well done and summarized nicely.  If you have NFLX, the first 3 are streaming.  Check out the 80's episode 8 titled "Greed is Good".  All about the markets in the 80's.  You will love it.


  23. Rustle/CNN -  CNN has been officially proclaimed as being fake news so how can I possibly believe their documentaries?





  24. Bitcoin has avoided tearing itself apart — for now




  25. Earnings Preview: What To Expect From Amazon



  26. An Experiment in India Shows How Much Companies Have to Gain by Investing in Their Employees


  27. Amazon Banks On Its $3 Billion Loan Club


  28. Manafort Talks With Senate Investigators to Discuss June 2016 Meeting With Russians


  29. From Our Partners —-  Anyone know if those stories are geared towards me based on my search history or are they just general interest for this chat room?  I seem to be getting a lot of stories about sex dolls and robots.


  30. TSLA – I just read the piece on Tesla's balance sheet proclaiming it to be the strongest in the world wide industry. Holy cow!! No wonder it's the most valuable auto maker in the world!!


  31. CDNjay – I'd guess your search history…. ;)



  32. Albo – "Bond market getting hit.  Biggest down day on bonds since February."

    Keep your eyes on the prize.

    Phil – Rump On Amazon –  Dec 7, 2015 –  If @amazon ever had to pay fair taxes, its stock would crash and it would crumble like a paper bag. The @washingtonpost scam is saving it!

    And Bezos owns WP. Since that Pearl Harbor Day Tweet – Rump managed to get elected on this crap, yet, since he's been in, all hat, no cattle. 

    A long long time ago, in a place far far away, the Sears Catalog used to get things shipped to people who did not have access or time to go to stores.  What killed Sears?  Abandoning what made them, the catalog, selling off all their winners, Dean Witter, Coldwell Banker, Allstate, Discover Card, and trying to be something they were not, upscale and big box.  

    Today, Amazon is what Sears was, a large online catalog that destroyed bookstores and record stores, not gonna list em, click the links.

    What will kill Amazon? 1. Margins. If I can buy Long Island Lolita the film or doll, for a few more $ locally, I avoid the shipping and return hassles and like Jay, get "hands on" the merchandise.  2. Attempting to morph into something they are not, and compete with grocers and WalMart.  Ironically, the latter having already destroyed the American way of life, and Out.


  33. ?UVXY  ?  Anyone?…..


  34. Jay – /CL Oil ripping pretty good. 

    The last dip (52.22 down to 42.05 = 10.17);  a potential 50% retrace to $47.13; or .618 = $48.26; or .763 (1 – .236) = $49.81.

    Getting closer to .618 retrace, could bang its head there.  Then perhaps a run to .763 just like the last bounce 5/05 through 05/25.  TBD.


  35. /CL – NN, This was a lead up to Memorial Day weekend.  What would be the driver for this run up? 


  36. Joseph, I would say the OPEC meeting and their announcements about production. 


  37. GNC – Jabob, earnings tomorrow… hopefully no tease :) .. getting some bids today.  if somebody knows something? 

     


  38. Am I mistaken but are VXX October 16.00 Calls at 50 cents today?


  39. Thanks Craig  


  40. learner--i know there must be a lot of shorts out there on GNC.

    Schwab is offering 9% to loan out shares.

    Hopefully, they will get squeezed.


  41. isn't gnc on thursday?

    abx and gild tomorrow


  42. GNC earnings…you are right, before market open on Thursday.


  43. imax f tomorrow too


  44. CLF/Malsg – Still playable below $8.  

    Our LTP position is even and pays $20,000 back from a net $5,000 entry (up 300%) at $10.  Still good for a new trade!  

    Oil/CDN – It's the same news as yesterday but OPEC met towards EU close and after Asia close, so those markets are catching up on the optimism.  We'll see what sticks after inventories but I'm keeping 4 short at $47.53 as long as we're under $48.

    • China's crude oil imports will exceed 400M metric tons this year, according to a Sinopec (SNP-0.6%) VP, which likely would make China the world's largest crude oil importer on an annual basis for the first time.
    • For the first six months of 2017, China imported 212M metric tons of crude, or 8.55M bbl/day, up nearly 14% Y/Y, as continuing low prices and declining domestic production prompt increased overseas purchases.
    • The expectation of strong Chinese demand for imports holding through the rest of the year comes despite plans by state oil majors (PTRCEO) to shut down 10% of the country's refining capacity in Q3 due to a glut of fuel products.

    • Exxon Mobil (XOM +1%) says it found additional oil at its Payara-2 appraisal well off Guyana, increasing the total volume of the Payara discovery to ~500M boe.
    • XOM says the ~19K ft. well, which encountered 59 ft. of high-quality oil-bearing sandstone, also allows it to increase the estimated gross recoverable resource for the 6.6M-acre Stabroek Block to 2.25B-2.75B boe.
    • XOM says Payara, Liza and the adjacent satellite discoveries at Snoek and Liza Deep will provide the foundation for world class oil developments.
    • Hess (HES +3.6%) holds a 30% interest and Cnooc's (CEO +0.6%) Nexen owns a 25% stake in Stabroek

    Sessions/Rustle – If Trump fires Sessions, he's Nixon and Sessions knows it and Sessions is such a piece of crap of a person that you can't humiliate him – he'll just keep showing up to work, no matter how much his boss hates him.  

    CNN/Rustle – CDN is right, how do we know these decades really happened?  Where's the proof?  CNN is probably making the whole thing up – I haven't seen anything about this on Fox so it can't be real…  devil

    From our partners/CDN – Er, that's just based on your indicated interests!  surprise

    It will be funny when you get an AI phone and, after every request it asks you "would you like to see some porn now?"  I had that problem with NFLX for a while, not with porn but with kids shows because the girls were using my account (now they allow different users in the family) and I couldn't find anything I liked through the clutter – it made it useless to me.

    TSLA/CDN – Well we are always down on TSLA so it's good to be aware of the alternative facts as well.

    AMZN/Naybob – WMT will destroy AMZN as will the other $2.9Tn worth of the Retail sellers Amazon hasn't displaced yet.  With book stores – there isn't enough space in a store for all the books, same with records – AMZN is a more efficient way of selling you books (though not as much fun discovering new ones to read) or records, so they won.  Can AMZN sell you shoes better than a shoe store or bras or TVs – all things you kind of want to look at first and, if price isn't an issue, why would you shop and walk out of a store empty-handed to go order it on-line.  AMZN only wins as long as retailers don't address their advantages but that is fixable on the retail end but, so far, AMZN is really a flea on the ass of retail – it's only the media that pumps them up to make them a story.  

    Image result for total us retail sales 2016

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    Image result for amazon sales 2016

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    Image result for amazon vs walmart revenue 2016

    Image result for amazon vs walmart revenue 2016

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    Image result for amazon vs walmart revenue 2016

    UVXY/1020 – You would think but it keeps burning us.  

    VXX/Naybob – No one believes it can go higher.  The Oct $13s are just 0.80 – I'd pay more for the extra $3 in position.

    GNC/Jabob – Another one of our patience plays.


  45. Phil – VXX – I like the cut of your jib on those 13's. More on fiddy cent, here and here.  

    With October contract, we get Sept Fed meeting (guaranteed raise and announcement of when the taper starts), and an equinox for good measure.  

    This guy bought 262K October contracts with a strike price of 15 and is selling 524K October contracts with a strike price of 25. If the VIX hits but doesn't exceed 25 before October expiration, that cat would see a $262M payout.

    That 1X2 bull call spread is this…. and Out.


  46. FTR up 5%!!!


  47. GNC up 6.66%…


  48. Joe – "What would be the driver for this run up?"

    Greed?  Manipulation? Your guess on geo political drivers or exogenic shocks, is as good as mine or the local weatherman's prediction.  

    Jawboning Arabs? That misses the point, we are the Arabs and have now become the swing producer. Every time they cut, somebody else picks up the slack, like Rump tweets, a lot of hot gas and empty words.  

    Zen from a bedouin wearing a hattah… Keep cutting production and keep the frackers goin strong viz. cutting your own throat.  Ramp up production and drop the price into the 30's? Better have alot of powder to survive the long cold desert winter of domestic budget shortages, viz. your people cut your throat.  Yeah, maybe that 2T from the Aramco IPO?  One word, screwed.

    The total solar eclipse on Aug 21st?  How about sheer numeric gravitas? Works for me and Out.


  49. Phil/Trump  Ok, so I am sure this will make you angry but here is why I am willing to put up with Trump a bit longer:

    1.  I voted for him b/c I could not vote for HRC.  I alos voted for him b/c of Supreme Court – and so far so good.  We can get into discussion on the why but it will only turn into a debate of personal views, which I'd rather not do here.

    2.  I voted for him b/c I wanted him to be a "disrupter" – so far, so good.  I want him to disrupt everything about DC and he is.  BUT, I am watching closely b/c of course I see the what he is doing to Sessions etc and others and I am not pleased, simply on the grounds of decency.  I beleieve that there is the possibility that his "disruption" will do serious damage but I doubt it since the "washington state" is so huge – for those who hate trump I offer this: this too shall come to pass.

    Now, I am not your ordinary Trump supporter.  I am not rabid without reason – and many supporters are b/c they are so angry at the US culture etc.  I am not angry or rabid about DC but take a much longer view: I am more of a long term globalist.


  50. You gotta love this, no more time card punch, card swiping, wanding or transacting at the company mess, kiosk or micro market.  Here's the press announcement for the first US company to do this.  When you get terminated, they could say, Goodbye Mr. Chips? and Out.


  51. FU TSLA

    FU AMZN

    these suckers just can't stay down… dangit!


  52. Phil , so this week you are holding your oil shorts through inventories?


  53. VXX/Naybob – And if the VIX goes to 50+, he and his trading house are BK. 

    FTR/Jabob – Looks like they'd like to hold $15.  

    Dollar looks like it wants to get over 94.

    Aramco/Naybob – GDP of Saudi Arabia is $646Bn of which probably $500Bn is Aramco revenues.  Problem number one is they are not raising $2Tn, they are raising $200Bn which will only plug a hole in their current budget and then, going forward, they lose 10% of their revenues, which is like losing 10% of their GDP.  Not likely to end well.  

    Globalism/Hanj – Doesn't make me angry, I'm just really trying to see the justification for sticking with this idiot and yours seems to be A) You want a conservative court and don't mind what it takes to get one and B) You like disruption although, by your own logic, you think the government is well-designed enough to withstand even severe disruption.  My attitude is that disruption for the sake of disruption is not often a good thing.  You obviously decided Hillary was unacceptable and voted for "someone else" despite that someone was Trump.  This baffles me and more so that, even in retrospect, you don't see that as a mistake.  Also, how is Trump a globalist?  Do I not understand the meaning of the word???  It seemed to me Obama was a Globalist and all Trump has done since taking office is tear down everything Obama built.  

    Employee chips/Naybob – It's so great that they don't realize that now the company knows what they are doing every second of every day.  

    Oil/Craigs – I don't know.  At the moment, I have 6 short at $47.65 avg.  /BZ went over $50 so I am worried but it did punch up $2 (5%) in two days so it shouldn't take much to cause a pullback.

    I'll be back to 2 as soon as I'm even and those I'll probably keep. 


  54. Phil/globalist  I noted that I am "long term" which means that I see our future on this planet only if we figure out how to tear down national borders, but without one or two countries carrying the majority of the weight.  I am looking generations out.  I hope that someday we can get to a universal income so that we can get to more important stuff like science, exploration, discovery, learning etc.  I know its a utopian view but its my hope nonetheless.

    IMY point on disruption that no matter what Trump does, I do not think our government will fail.  Therefore, if he is there for 4 years or whatever, at least Washington will be warned that if they keep this shit up, worse things could happen – this I fear.  And one of the reasons I could not vote for HRC was my belief that she would lead us into more wars, specifically with Russia.  I believe she is part of the military industrial complex and I do not believe Trump is.

    I don't view my vote for Trump as a mistake bc he is doing exactly what I thought he would do.  He is as crazy as a fox and when he is done, middle america, who I believe has had coastal everything shoved down their throats for decades, will no longer be ignored.

    My ultimate choice would be to throw each and everyone of them out but that is as likely as my utopian view happening in my lifetime.  But it is what I work towards.

    Thanks for the comments.


  55. Murkowski (Alaska) and Collins (Maine) are the Republicans who voted NO on Obamacare Debate Motion.  Not even sure what happens if they can't even approve a debate.  Apparently without a debate, the whole thing dies.  So far, the Reps have 48 yes votes and 2 nos.  Waiting for John McCain and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) which should give them 50 and then Pence votes to break the tie.  

    Sen. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) blasted the motion to proceed vote in the chamber as a "ruse" that would ultimately give control of the Republican health-care overhaul to the conservative Freedom Caucus in the House.

    Mr. Schumer, on the Senate floor Tuesday, noted that passing a health bill in the Senate would then lead a group of House and Senate members to go to a conference to hammer out the differences between the two chambers' bills. He predicted that if that happens, the conservative Freedom Caucus, which played a role in defeating an earlier health bill in the House, would have a large sway over what a bill looks like, pulling it further to the right.

    "A vote in favor a motion to proceed this afternoon will be a permission slip" for the Freedom Caucus, Mr. Schumer said.

    The Freedom Caucus is unified by the idea that Republicans don’t fight hard enough for their causes and would be keen to support gutting much of Obamacare, whereas some more centrist Republicans have been willing to keep some aspects, such as the law's Medicaid funding and taxes on upper-income households.

     

    Raising the stakes, several conservative outside groups including the Club for Growth and the March for Life, a prominent anti-abortion organization, are recording lawmakers’ votes today in their influential voting scorecards. If Senators vote against the motion to open debate, these groups will score those votes as opposition to repealing the ACA.

    Planet/Hanj – And you think ignoring global warming at this critical juncture and building a huge wall between the US and Mexico accomplishes your goals?  Trump's first act in office was to bump defense spending 10% – biggest increase since Reagan – I think you need to rethink who's in that military industrial complex.  Do you know why Trump is in it, because he's in business and those guys have 1,000 ways to dole out money to the people who help them out.  In fact, the Military Office is renting an apartment in Trump Tower for $130,000/month (for 3,475 feet).  Could you imagine what would happen if Clinton made a deal like that?  They signed an 18-month lease so there's $2.4M in Trump's pocket for an otherwise empty space.  Suddenly he loves those F35s!  

    And the military’s $130,000/month lease isn’t even close to market rate for similar units within Trump Tower—as the WSJ points out, the most expensive rental in Trump Tower prior to the government’s lease was a 3,725-square-foot home asking a mere $50,000/month unfurnished and $60,000/month furnished.

    Well, I hope you're right.  To me, he seems far more evil and far more corrupt than Hillary ever was and, his views on Trade, the environment and international relations are a threat to my children and their children.  Maybe you haven't doomed us all – I hope so…


  56. Phil – "And if the VIX goes to 50+, he and his trading house are BK. "

    Anything over 35, he gets in deep banta poodoo. 

    Look at a weekly for the VIX going back to 2008, notice what happens around 1st – 2nd week of Aug and continues sometimes until end of Oct?  One exception 2010.  Note: that affect in the VXX ETF is extremely muted.

    Aramco IPO – your right, the offering is abt. $100B which will go to the SWF.  

    The Saudis plan to offer up to 5% of Aramco in the IPO, at a predicted price of $100 billion. This would give Aramco a valuation of $2 trillion, making it the largest IPO ever. - Forbes   - A Game Changer? - Brookings

    I meant giving Aramco a potential valuation of $2T which could be sold off in chunks over the years to come to plug future gaps.  But that might not even happen…

    Wood McKenzie thinks Aramco's core business would only be worth $400B  If true, quite the haircut and Out.


  57. Phil/global Warming  Well this will really upset you – I think global warming is a hoax.  I have spent almost a hundred hours researching this. While I beleive that the earth cools and warms regualrly, I do not see any connection between temps and man other than causal correlation which says its happening, so whats different?  Oh man, so it must be them.  I disagree as i do not believe there is enough data to warrant concern, yet.  And even the fluorcarbon limits adopted/proposed do not have any effect on temps – they are insufficent to make a difference, even if their science was right.

    As to Trump being part of the complex, I don't know.  But I do know that ALL the president's prior were.  And no I am not a fan of the Bush's (9/11 and the Saudis) and I like Reagan for what he did to the old Soviet Union.

    I don't think Trump is evil although it's easy to paint people that way.  I didn't think HRC was evil, I thought she was too deep.


  58. Dam hajongin…."almost a hundred hours researching this"…. Either you are the smartest person in the room or you have a high opinion of yourself…. :(


  59. I gotta get some popcorn ready for this! haha 


  60. 1020/me  I can assure  you I do not have an overly high opinion of myself.  But yes, that's the amount of time at least that I have spent on this topic.  I don't profess to know more than experts on either side, but I do believe that the science is subject b/c we simply don't have a large enough sample of data to draw scientifically sound conclusions.  I understand the emotion on both sides so my beef is merely with the process of discovery.

    And 100 hours is not that much.  I spend about 4-5 hours on every stock I consider before looking at really considering taking a position.  

    Shoot, I spent 10 hours researching the electoral college.

    Generally speaking, I sleep about 4-5 hours per night so instead of watching tv or drinking myself into a stupor, I read and learn as much as i can.


  61. 1020/one more point  If your statement was a veiled attack, I would prefer you not do this again.  If it was not, then I have clarified.  But I fail to see any logic that would have you arrive at the conclusion that I am either the smartest person in the room (Phil actually is on many things, and I mean this truly.  From what I can tell, he is a savant) or I think a lot of myself.  Both statements make no sense in terms of adding to conversation.


  62. VXX/Naybob – This would suck for them:

    Related image

    Hoax/Hanj – Wow, I can't even begin on that one – I simply don't have the energy.  

    How do we know? – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet: Evidence

    9 ways we know humans triggered climate change | Environmental …

    Global Warming For Dummies Cheat Sheet – dummies

    A Climate for Change: Global Warming Facts for Faith-Based …

    While I'm sure your 100 hours was far more intense than the thousands of lifetimes of research that has led to a 97% consensus among scientists (and closer to 99.9% of scientists who are not funded by carbon polluters) – even if Global Warming were not man-made – that's no reason not to do whatever we can to stop it, is it?  If your home is flooding then yes, you didn't cause it but maybe put down a few towels to try to save the foundation?  

    I don't think Eisenhower was part of the MI Complex, as he warned us about them.  Kennedy wasn't but they killed him and replaced him with Johnson, who didn't get in their way.  Nixon was certainly their boy and Ford was a stooge.  Carter came up through the Military but not of the complex, Reagan, of course, was a manufactured celebrity politician who, like Trump, was bought and paid for by the MIC.  Bush1 was a spy so enough said there but Clinton is iffy Bush 2 was Daddy's boy and no way Obama rolled with the MIC which brings us back to the celebrity politician trick.  Seems to have fooled you so I guess it still works…

    Also, don't take ribbing from 1020 as some sort of attack (I'm guilty too).  We're both sarcastic bastards, that's how we communicate!  I actually very much appreciate having a civilized conversation on the matter with you so thanks!  


  63. Phil/ribbing  Well, I am pretty good at dishing it out but I think my history here is not to attack people, no matter what.  Anyways, I don't judge people so there;s that.

    I don't dispute that scientists have put in 10,000's of hours on this topic – I was only making the point in response to 1020 that putting in 100 hours to research something is not that much, and does not lead one to his comments.  But thats water under the bridge.

    I would agree that even if Global Warming is not true, we still need to do a better job at protecting out planet – but I have ZERO confidence in politicians.  Even the Paris Accords do little to nothing – M.I.T.s analysis says that the result will be a lowering the temperature by .02 degrees celcius by 2100.  That is a big nothing burger.

    But I do understand the desire to do "something."  I would just rather it be backed by sound scientific techniques, which are sort of impossible because we don't have enough time to study of modern man's interaction with the planet.  Hundreds of years is a moment when compared to the age of the earth from which we can derive some data for.

    I am an odd conservative because I believe in universal income – sure I will have less if it means other can have more – but I do not want my wealth going to lazy asses that want to sit around and play minecraft all day, or whatever the perpetually unemployed but physically and mentally able are doing around the world.  It will take a quantum leap in human consciousness to start thinking less about ourselves and putting the needs of others first – we are not there yet.

    And thankyou sir!


  64. CMG – Earnings beat, Revenue miss, Same store sales up 8.1%,  AH is trading at $357 ..bid-ask


  65. Wonder what guidance will be for CMG.  Can't imagine same store sales up for next quarter.


  66. CRS – "I gotta get some popcorn ready for this! haha"   Then scratch and pick, your seat even…

    Phil – "We're both sarcastic bastards, that's how we communicate!"  You Sir are a Snarcastic master of Snarcasm.  Takes one to know one.. ;-)

    Gin – "While I beleive that the earth cools and warms regualrly, I do not see any connection between temps and man other than causal correlation which says its happening, so whats different? "

    The first part is correct, cyclical warming and cooling since the planet formed an eco system under its atmosphere.  The second part, so wrong in so many ways.  

    You want to see your potential future, then look at your past. 250M years ago (end Permian) a volcanic event (the Siberian Traps) added 100K billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere. What happened? The greatest mass extinction event in history. 

    75% of land species and 96% of ocean species families went extinct. Contrary to bad science, CO2 rarely hits a "saturation" point, ask a Venusian. Depending on climate and salinity, CO2 is absorbed into the water, raising the Ph.  Try that in your fish tank, see what happens, a lot of Goldie flushing down the toilet. 

    When CO2 runs rampant, not toxic levels, just enough to add to the natural eco-cycle and cause an exponential increase, temperatures can climb past the point where plant life can germinate and photosynthesize light into energy.  Did I mention plant life was devastated?

    With a mass extinction of forests, mass erosion occurred and for 10M years afterwards there was no coal formation, this explains the ‘Coal Gap’.  No worries there, no plants, no animals, no food, no talking monkeys. 

    Does anyone wonder if there is a connection between the CO2 level and the mass extinctions? If you do, denser than Osmium comes to mind.  The talking monkeys have spewed enough additional CO2 into the atmosphere, to keep this baby cookin for quite awhile.  

    If one wants to educate themselves, like a PSW grad try 10,000 hours and start here: Carbon Capture and Storage Association;  Stanford Woods and anything Klaus Lackner puts his name on.

    Check these out because your going to need them: Carbon Engineering; Climeworks; Global Thermostat; and The Rocky Mountain Institute.   One might want to invest in those CO2 extraction or carbon capture and storage technologies, and in a really big way and fast. 

    If something is not reversed soon, and in a very fast way, this is a fait accompli.  Worry not, when the virus known as man has eradicated itself, the clean up crew arrives to prep for the new tenants or the Inheritor's. Freakin prime directive BS, patience is a virtue, clocks tickin on the chimps and Out.


  67. CMG/Learner – Yay!  

    WYNN down 3% on their earnings.  

    ESRX and AMGN taking hits too.

    Warming/Hanj – Well, I suppose in your 100 hours, you missed this:

    That claim was attributed to research conducted by MIT, according to White House documents seen by Reuters. The Cambridge, Massaschusetts-based research university published a study in April 2016 titled "How much of a difference will the Paris Agreement make?" showing that if countries abided by their pledges in the deal, global warming would slow by between 0.6 degree and 1.1 degrees Celsius by 2100.

    "We certainly do not support the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris agreement," said Erwan Monier, a lead researcher at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, and one of the study's authors.

    "If we don't do anything, we might shoot over 5 degrees or more and that would be catastrophic," said John Reilly, the co-director of the program, adding that MIT's scientists had had no contact with the White House and were not offered a chance to explain their work.

    Limiting the change to just 0.2 degrees would be FANTASTIC and not doing it would be CATASTROPHIC – that's not really complicated.  Unfortunately, Trump's dismantling of the Paris accords could break them and that would essentially guarantee we fail to get things under control in time.  Doing nothing could very easily be fatal and you fall into the Conservative trap of "needing more study" – which accomplishes the same thing as deciding not to do anything since the window of opportunity to act is rapidly closing.  

    And what Naybob said!  

    Guidance/Rustle – That's going to be tricky.  They don't want to seem flippant about it but it was one store out of 2,000 who serve an average of 1,000 people per day so 2M people per day and 100 got sick in one store one time for reasons unknown.  2,800 people got norovirus in California schools in May and no one even noticed.  In the past 12 months, there were 1,168 oubreaks in the US.  


  68. Oil popped to $48.30, stopped me out at $48 – ouch!  

    I'll still go back in at $48.50 or under $48 (tight stops).  

    API has a big draw in crude but gasoline still very disappointing:

    Crude: -10.23MM

    Gasoline: +1.903MM

    Distillate: -0.111MM

    Cushing: -2.568MM


  69. Phil – RB – does that mean you want to short it or want to see what happens first with CL?


  70. CMG $362!  Nice money on our STP play!  

    /RB/Bulls – Below $1.60 I'd short it with tight stops above but I'm in the $48.50 shorts on /CL again so I'm not looking to open up another front for myself.  


  71. IRBT kicked ass.


  72. got it. Thanks


  73. nat/links  Thanks, a couple I have looked at already.  I will endeavor to do the same for the others.  And I don't have 10,000 hours unfortuantely but i again, i am not against doing anything (and the rest of the world seems to be trying to do something) but the PAris accords are a poor start.  China effectively has to do nothing new other than follow what they were already doing.

    And nat, what do you make of this from the World Bank? http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PP.GD?start=1990&end=2013&view=chart


  74. Sorry didn't post the lines today (or anything else). Was at a big meeting in Washington talking to a large financial organization about our translation software!


  75. Phil – CL-- 48.5…. it's already higher at 48.55 -48.65-- where is your tight stop line?


  76. AMD beats, raises its full-year revenue guidance


  77. Chipotle profit doubles, shares rise


  78. Gin – "And nat, what do you make of this from the World Bank?"

    In the water reclamation business, one of our mottos was: Dilution is the solution.

    Not is this case.


  79. The Politics of Climate



  80. Americans Pour Record Sums Into Home Improvements




  81. LOLZ can you be bothered to spend 10 minutes to understand:

    1) CO2 is a non condensable gas

    2) It's accumulating in the atmosphere, 250 ppm background now at 408.

    3) it has an absorption signature in the IR spectra

    the rest is bullshit. This is everything you need to know.


  82. Hanj, your link here was awesome. Thanks for posting that!



  83. Phil / ESRX – reporting slight beat on earning and flat / up rev – took guidance up for year end….  Why is this down?  Do you see anything of concern ?   .. I'm tempted to add to my position withe stock under 62…


  84. Phil – if time allows please give us a blow – by – blow as you trade CLU7 shorting at 45.5 – thanks.


  85. Volvo – all electric production from 2019 -  277,641 unit in 2017

    UK – ban sales of all fossil fuel vehicles by 2040 – the UK has a total of 35 million cars on its roads as of 2013.  France to embark on similar measures – 100,000 people drive electric cars in France and a scrappage scheme is planned.

    BMW – to manufacture an Electric Mini in the UK – last time I looked that was one of their more popular models.

    I'd say Phil's demand theory will be panning out sooner than we thought.


  86. StJL – "Sorry didn pot the line oday (or any els). Was hat a ig meet in Wash alking to a arge fin zation bout our transnation softhair!"

    Hope you didn't get this reception. ;-)





  87. China declares war on Ponzi schemes and fundraising ploys





  88. Phil/TF – are you still in the short?


  89. Mic captures GOP senator ripping Trump, mocking lawmaker


  90. Good morning!  

    Asia was up half a point and Europe is up 1/3 and we are up 1/10th.  I still have my /TF shorts (8 at 1,448) and my oil shorts (10 at $48.36) but looking to get both back to 2 asap.  Oh, even on oil would include getting back my loss so about $47.90.  Probably I'd drop to 5 from there with very tight stops over $48, hoping inventories go well.

    Meeting/StJ – I hope all went well.  

    Oil/Latch – As I often say, I don't end up using tight stops myself as I am not always paying attention to Futures.  That doesn't mean it's not a good idea – I simply don't have time to stare at it all day.  So, I play with conviction and was intending to DD up to $49 (to avg $48.75) but I ended up adding on the way below $48.50 for 8 short at $48.36 now (2nd round).

    Apparently, if the Fed tightens today, it will be quite a shock to the investing community but, if they don't, there's only Sept 20th, Nov 1st and Dec 12th left and Dec is too close to XMas (they learned that lesson) which means they pretty much have to hike both of the other meetings and the Fed likes to stay flexible so better to raise today and see what happens in 6 weeks – especially with the market at highs again.

    Non-condsenable/BDC – Well, if you want to be nit-picky about it, the CO2 itself doesn't cause the warming, the water vapor does but the addition of CO2 in the atmosphere increases the density of the water vapor (because it's non-condensable) and that, in turn, causes warming which then causes more water to vaporize which causes a feedback loop that leads to Venus.  Also, Hanj's chart only proves GDP is expanding faster than CO2, which is good but doesn't really help the planet if it's still increasing.

    Image result for venus global warming

    Image result for venus global warming

    Image result for venus global warming

    ESRX/Batman – Still BS'ing about the Anthem contract.  They have offered terms ESRX won't accept and they'll lose them in 2019 (biggest customer) if they don't have a deal by early next year.  The reality is ANTM, who sued ESRX for overbilling (and lost) can't find anyone who will come close to the current prices so they are just being dicks but it's a bad relationship to have with your biggest client.  

    Oil/Latch – Grinning and bearing at the moment ($48.38).

    Indexes popping too.  

    Demand/Malsg – A leap forward in battery tech and oil dies a sudden death.