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  1. phil

    Good morning!  

    I have to be at the Nasdaq this morning and should be back by noon and then we'll try a Webinar at 1pm, hopefully.  Bottom line is I'll barely be able to chat.  I have to get an early start as I didn't feel like sleeping in the city but I'm also worried about the morning commute with Trump in residence.  I'm sure I'm on some kind of list at this point! 

    Yet another nice pop in the Futures this morning at the EU open and they are up almost 1% – about to test 3,500 on EuroStoxx, which should get rejected from 3,400 so 20-points (weak) is 0.5% and a strong rejection would be 1%, so that then translates to expecting at least a 0.5% pullback on our own indexes from their runs.

    On the DAX I'd call it 300 points up so 60-points back from 12,300 would be 12,240 (weak) or 12,180 (strong)

    The Dow had a 400-point run (1.8%) to 22,050 so 80-points back is 21,970 and then all the way back to 21,890 but I'm only expecting a weak retrace for now.  

    Still, that's another nice $400 dip on /YM so why not play it short at 22,050?

    /ES had a 30-point run to 2,470 and that's 6-points back to 2,463 and then 2,457 if it's so inclined to fill that gap.  

    /NQ 5,940 is an air reject from 5,950 from 5,800 and, even though it's 150 points, the Nas loves those 25-point lines so we'll look for 5,925 and 5,900 and below 5,900 means the others are likely to at least do a strong retrace too.

    /TF 1,370 back to 1,400 was a narrow move (and we fell from 1,430 so it was a 50% bounce which failed at 1,400).  That was meant to retrace 6 and 12 points so 1,388 is the line to watch to see if we're really recovering and below that is a fail on the RUT.  

    In the bigger picture, 1,430 to 1,370 was a 60-point drop so 12-point bounces to 1,372 and 1,384 so that's our real zone of contention on /TF – between 1,384 and 1,388 and whichever way we break is likely to determine which way the market breaks.  And look what happens when we zoom into the 5-min chart:

    See, right where the 5% Rule predicts we'd consolidate with 1,386 the center of the triangle squeezy thingy.  

    2,470 on /ES is the easiest shorting line at the moment as it's a good place to stop out over.  

    Oil held $47.50 and this should be a good last effort to go higher before the weight of the contracts drag them down.  With 5 days to trade, there are 210,000 open so still 40,000/day to dump is still too heavy – though still a bit too crazy to play but I'd short a good spike after inventories, especially if we could hit $48.50.

    Brent is now MORE than $3 ahead of WTIC – that's a big stretch! 

    $2.80 on /NG is where I start having conviction so the entry is really a question of what you are willing to lose vs the risk of missing the next run.  Unfortunately, a 0.10 drop is $1,000 per contract, so it's not nothing but around $2.85 I feel compelled to begin scaling in. 

    Behold the full faith and credit of the United States (despite the Fed doveishness):

    /KC had a nice dip.  There's no evidence that this line ($135) has support yet.  It was the prior breakout so the 10-point dip should get a 2-point bounce ($137) at least but then we'll see if we get to $139.  The Dollar is not likely to help so it will be a good indicator of Coffee's real strength.  

    Can't get motivated to play /SI or /YG with the Dollar on the rise.  Copper ripped higher on tariff talk:

     





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Zero Hedge

"Worst Case Scenario" Looms As Merkel's "Jamaica Coalition" Collapses; EUR Sinks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We warned on Friday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel faced a 'night of the long knives' in her efforts to bring together the co-called 'Jamaica' coalition of four parties and after a desperate weekend of talks, Bloomberg reports Merkel's efforts at forming a coalition have failed meaning a second election looms and sending the euro sliding...



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Phil's Favorites

A Fiscal Disappointment - Of Tax Reform & Growth Fairies

Courtesy of Real Investment Advice.com

I encourage you to take a few minutes to review my previous analysis of the effectiveness of tax cuts on the economy.

The Committee For A Responsible Budget penned after the passage of the tax bill:

“The House approved debt-financed tax cuts based on predictions of magical...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars To Record High Above $8000 After Mugabe Speech

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With Bitcoin trading at $13,499 on Golix, the chaotic environment in Zimbabwe has spread to the global price of the cryptocurrency driving it beyond $8000 for the first time in history as President Mugabe fails to resign in a national address following the nation's coup.

It appears many Zimbabweans have found an alternate way to store/transfer wealth away from Mugabe's prying (and co...



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Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



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Chart School

When does this all end - Update2

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

To buy or not to buy: The US 10 year versus high yielding utility stocks.

Previous Post: When does this all end - Update

The US 10 year yield is at 2.34%

And compared to utility dividend stocks ...

American Water Works (Dow Jones Utility: AWK) dividend @ 1.87%
NI Source (Dow Jones Utility: NI) dividend @ 2.58%
American Electric Power (Dow Jones Utility: AEP) dividend @ 3.25%

The question is, which asset class do you trust to provide a return for 10 years? Of course your ability to judge future inflation expectations (see TIP for iShares TIPS Bond ETF) and how extende...

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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For November 17, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AMAT 8 Stock's Moving In Thursday's After-Hours Session 12 Stocks To Watch For November 16, 2017 ...

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ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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