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  1. phil

    Good morning!  

    I have to be at the Nasdaq this morning and should be back by noon and then we'll try a Webinar at 1pm, hopefully.  Bottom line is I'll barely be able to chat.  I have to get an early start as I didn't feel like sleeping in the city but I'm also worried about the morning commute with Trump in residence.  I'm sure I'm on some kind of list at this point! 

    Yet another nice pop in the Futures this morning at the EU open and they are up almost 1% – about to test 3,500 on EuroStoxx, which should get rejected from 3,400 so 20-points (weak) is 0.5% and a strong rejection would be 1%, so that then translates to expecting at least a 0.5% pullback on our own indexes from their runs.

    On the DAX I'd call it 300 points up so 60-points back from 12,300 would be 12,240 (weak) or 12,180 (strong)

    The Dow had a 400-point run (1.8%) to 22,050 so 80-points back is 21,970 and then all the way back to 21,890 but I'm only expecting a weak retrace for now.  

    Still, that's another nice $400 dip on /YM so why not play it short at 22,050?

    /ES had a 30-point run to 2,470 and that's 6-points back to 2,463 and then 2,457 if it's so inclined to fill that gap.  

    /NQ 5,940 is an air reject from 5,950 from 5,800 and, even though it's 150 points, the Nas loves those 25-point lines so we'll look for 5,925 and 5,900 and below 5,900 means the others are likely to at least do a strong retrace too.

    /TF 1,370 back to 1,400 was a narrow move (and we fell from 1,430 so it was a 50% bounce which failed at 1,400).  That was meant to retrace 6 and 12 points so 1,388 is the line to watch to see if we're really recovering and below that is a fail on the RUT.  

    In the bigger picture, 1,430 to 1,370 was a 60-point drop so 12-point bounces to 1,372 and 1,384 so that's our real zone of contention on /TF – between 1,384 and 1,388 and whichever way we break is likely to determine which way the market breaks.  And look what happens when we zoom into the 5-min chart:

    See, right where the 5% Rule predicts we'd consolidate with 1,386 the center of the triangle squeezy thingy.  

    2,470 on /ES is the easiest shorting line at the moment as it's a good place to stop out over.  

    Oil held $47.50 and this should be a good last effort to go higher before the weight of the contracts drag them down.  With 5 days to trade, there are 210,000 open so still 40,000/day to dump is still too heavy – though still a bit too crazy to play but I'd short a good spike after inventories, especially if we could hit $48.50.

    Brent is now MORE than $3 ahead of WTIC – that's a big stretch! 

    $2.80 on /NG is where I start having conviction so the entry is really a question of what you are willing to lose vs the risk of missing the next run.  Unfortunately, a 0.10 drop is $1,000 per contract, so it's not nothing but around $2.85 I feel compelled to begin scaling in. 

    Behold the full faith and credit of the United States (despite the Fed doveishness):

    /KC had a nice dip.  There's no evidence that this line ($135) has support yet.  It was the prior breakout so the 10-point dip should get a 2-point bounce ($137) at least but then we'll see if we get to $139.  The Dollar is not likely to help so it will be a good indicator of Coffee's real strength.  

    Can't get motivated to play /SI or /YG with the Dollar on the rise.  Copper ripped higher on tariff talk:

     





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Zero Hedge

Skunk Works Exec Hints US Hypersonic Bomber Has "Already Been Made"

 

Skunk Works Exec Hints US Hypersonic Bomber Has "Already Been Made"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Last week we noted that  “hypersonic aircraft and missiles are being developed and tested by the United States, Russia, and China at an accelerating pace.” The race for hypersonic technologies has flourished among global superpowers, who realize that the first to possess these technologies will revolutionize their civilian and military programs.

Curiously, Lockheed Martin’s mysterious Skunk W...



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ValueWalk

10 Things The Rich Do That The Poor Don't

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Explaining 10 things that rich people do that poor people don’t that determines each one’s financial success

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Music Credit: http://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-...



1. ...



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Phil's Favorites

Carillion Q&A: The consequences of collapse and what the government should do next

 

Carillion Q&A: The consequences of collapse and what the government should do next

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Construction giant Carillion has gone into liquidation. The UK’s second-largest construction firm was one of the government’s biggest contractors, involved in huge infrastructure projects like the HS2 rail link and the Royal Liverpool University Hospital. It also provides services across the public sector such as running libraries, schools and prisons. Here’s what you need to know about Carillion’s collapse.

Why did the government keep placing...



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Digital Currencies

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

 

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

Courtesy of 

Over the summer, I reviewed Steven Johnson’s book about innovation, called The Invention of Air. Johnson shows us how a simple insight by one of the least technically gifted scientists in history led to a massive chain reaction of human understanding about the world we live in and how it truly works.

If you missed my synopsis, it’s here.

...



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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Goldman Sachs raised Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) price target from $4.70 to $5.40. Groupon shares closed at $5.03 on Tuesday.
  • Barclays boosted the price target for Pure Storage Inc (NYSE: PSTG) from $19 to $22. Pure Storage shares closed at $16.16 on Tuesday.
  • Stifel increased the price target for Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) from $161 to $184. Deere shares closed at $167.54 on Tuesday.
  • Mizuho raised the price target on QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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