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White Power Wednesday – Trump Says Some Nationalists are “Very Fine People”

I can't believe the markets are up again.  

This country is running headlong into full-scale riots and the market could not be more complacent about it.  Once again we are jacked up in the Futures and I already put out a note to our Members with new shorting lines and I have to run to the Nasdaq this morning for an interview so I'm just going to post a link HERE.  

That's right, we're very busy in the mornings at PSW and that's because being a good investor is a JOB, not a hobby and it requires a surprising amount of work if you want to get it right.  Yesterday morning we also shorted the low-volume move up in the Futures and my call in the Morning Report was:

Meanwhile, talk of trade war is strengthening the Dollar, which may even break back over 94 today and that unintended consequence of sabre-rattling is not good for the markets so we took advantage this morning and put in those short orders on the Futures in our Live Member Chat Room at Dow (/YM) 22,000, S&P (/ES) 2,470, Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,925 and Russell (/TF) 1,400.  As usual, we wait for two of them to cross under than then short one of the laggards with VERY TIGHT STOPS – because this market be CRAZY!  

The Dollar hit 94.04 and is holding 93.90 at the moment, consolidating for a move higher (long /DX) and we got some nice drops on our indexs but, as we thought they were shallow:  Dow fell 50 points to gain $250 per contract, S&P fell 10 points to gain $500 per contract, Nasdaq fell 25 points to gain $500 per contract and Russell fell 20 points to gain $2,000 per contract, which is good because, as I said to our Members in the Live Chat Room at 9:37:

I've got 5 short /TF, always my favorite.  1,395.30 is my avg.  Other than that, just seeing how things shake out.  

Image result for boring investmentsSee, this is not complicated:  Have a premise, make a bet, collect the cash.  Wash, rinse and repeat and, before you know it, you have some money.  The hard part is all the research it takes to arrive at the premise – the trading part is fairly simple.  By the way, we only trade Futures for fun at PSW – we are actually long-term fundamental investors who use options to hedge and leverage our positions.  It's just that, when we're doing things right – our trades are BORING! – so we make some Futures trades to pass the time while we wait for our real trades to mature.  

In fact, one of the reasons I started an investment blog was to give myself something to do because, if I'm not otherwise engaged, I have a tendency to over-trade – as most people do.  Our primary trade style is "set and forget," using long-term "leap" options to discount our stock entries (or create artificial ownership) with the goal of making 20-40% returns each year (see "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns on Stocks").

In that video, from way back in 2013, we mentioned OptionsXpress as  a good value and Schwab (SCHW) bought them out from under us for $1Bn.  Our sample trade for a covered call strategy was Barrick Gold (ABX) which was $19.15 at the time.  Today ABX is at $16.55, so not much action in 4 years but our strategy of using the position to collect $1 in premium each quarter was a great success and, 16+ quarters later, the stock is net free and the $16.55 is all profit and we can now sell Oct $16 calls for $1.20.  The very low VIX has lowered our returns slightly.  

While it may seem like a dull way to make money (and it is, we do more complex plays, usually), consider the mechanics of the trade:

  • Start with $20,000 in Sept 2013 (when we made the video) and buy 1,000 shares of ABX ($19,150) and sell 10 Oct $19 calls for $1.30 ($1,300).   That's net $17,850 and you have $2,150 in cash.  
  • At October expirations, ABX is at $18.50 and we sell the Jan $19 calls for $1 ($1,000), driving cash up to $3,150.
  • A dividend of $50 is paid on 11/27 ($3,200)
  • Jan ABX is at $19.28 so we pay $280 to buy back the short calls and sell April (2014) $19s for $1.50 ($1,500) so now $4,700 in cash. 
  • A dividend of $50 is paid on 2/26 ($4,750)
  • At April expirations, ABX is at $17.89 and we sell July $18 calls for $1.50 ($1,500) and cash is now $6,250
  • A dividend of $50 is paid on 5/28 ($6,300) 
  • At July expirations, ABX is at $18.11 and we pay back $110 and sell Sept $18 calls for $1.50 ($1,500) and cash is now $7,690.
  • A dividend of $50 is paid on 8/27 ($7,740).  

So, here we are, at the end of year one, with the stock back at $16.72 ($16,720) and $7,740 in cash for a total of $24,460 and a profit of $4,460 (22.3%) DESPITE the fact that ABX is $2.43 (12.7%) LOWER than where we entered the trade.  

Image result for money printing animated gifThat's because, using our nice, boring system, the odds are so much in your favor that even a declining stock can make you money on the way down.  ABX had it's ups and downs for the next 3 years but now we're right back where we started and with another 3 x $4,460 (ish) in our pocket.  In reality, once the trade is up 25% or so, we can safely use our margin to initiate the next trade in our portfolio (because we are using only 50% of $40,000 in margin and then we have $48,000, so we start another trade and then we collect $8,000 more and margin rises to $56,000 with $35,000 in positions, etc.) and then we have two working at once and a year later we have 3 and then 4 – so the returns compound rapidly over time.  

This is what we've been doing with our Member Portfolios for the past few years, simply working our system and making our returns.  They aren't all winners but, when you have this much of a house advantage, you don't need them all to be to make a very nice overall return.  

And that leaves you with plenty of free time to do your research and make the occasional short-term stock, option or Futures trades – a litttle fun in the sun while we wait for our planted trees to turn into forests of CASH!!!

 


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  1. Good morning!  

    I'm at the Nasdaq this morning (10:30ish) and should be back before noon and I expect to do the Webinar but it will be a crazy day so not much time to chat.  

    See morning notes for levels to watch – no changes since I wrote them at 6.  

    • U.S. stock index futures are 0.2% higher before the Fed releases the minutes from its last policy meeting in July.
    • Details of the discussion could further cement the expectation that the central bank will begin reducing its balance sheet at its next gathering in September.
    • Meanwhile, negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will kick off the first round of trade talks today as the countries try to fast-track a deal to modernize NAFTA.
    • Oil is up 0.4% at $47.74/bbl, gold is 0.3% lower at $1276/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 bps to 2.28%.
    • The Fed is set to release the minutes from its last gathering in July, when policymakers unanimously decided to keep interest rates unchanged and said they planned to reduce the central bank's massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon."
    • Details of the discussion could further cement the expectation that the Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet at its next meeting in September.

    • The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1699 on a report that Mario Draghi won't rock boat next week at Jackson Hole.
    • Sources told Reuters the ECB president will not deliver a fresh policy message at the economic policy symposium, but rather wants to hold off from debate until the fall.
    • His speech will instead focus on the conference theme of fostering a dynamic global economy.

    • Negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the U.S. kick off an ambitious first round of trade talks today as the countries try to fast-track a deal to modernize NAFTA.
    • The timeline is for seven rounds of negotiations between now and the beginning of next year, as markets keep an eye out for fresh rumblings on trade protectionism.
    • U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade has quadrupled since NAFTA took effect in 1994, surpassing $1.2T in 2016

    • MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Composite Index: +0.1% vs. +3.0% last week.
    • Purchase Index: -2.0% vs. +1.0%.
    • Refinance Index: +2.0% vs. +5.0%
    • 30 year mortgage rate at 4.12% vs. 4.14% last week.
    • The eurozone economy expanded 0.6% in Q2, in line with expectations, while the annual figure was upgraded to 2.2% growth.
    • "The market mindset is that Europe is recovering from a very deep, very long recession that hit at its financial core," said Christopher Peel, CIO at Tavistock Wealth. "The banking system is finally starting to show signs of having worked through the legacy of 2008-2009."

    Trump decries 'alt-left' in Charlottesville: 'Do they have any semblance of guilt?

    In Angry, Fiery Press Conference, Trump Says "Blame On Both Sides" For Violence

    AFL-CIO President Quits President's Mfg Council, Accuses Trump Of "Tolerating Domestic Terrorism"

    CBO Blames Trump: Sees 20% Surge In 2018 Obamacare Premiums If Subsidies Removed

    Indian and Chinese soldiers reportedly involved in a melee in Himalayan border area

    China Reclaims Spot as World's Biggest Holder of TreasuriesChina reclaimed its position as the top foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries after increasing its holdings for the fifth straight month. China’s holdings of U.S. bonds, notes and bills rose to $1.15 trillion in June, up $44.3 billion from a month earlier, according to Treasury Department data released Tuesday in Washington. Japan owned $1.09 trillion, a decrease of $20.5 billion from its total in May. Japan had overtaken China in October as the largest holder of American government bonds, the figures showed. The two countries account for more than a third of all foreign ownership of Treasuries, which gained by $47.7 billion in June to $6.17 trillion, the figures showed.

    China's Panda Bond Market Boom Threatens Dim Sum Debt SurvivalThe market for foreign issuers of bonds in Chinese yuan is shifting away from Hong Kong towards the mainland, in a sign that the city-state’s once vibrant market for such debt may never reach its past heights. The bond market’s penchant for nicknames for overseas debt markets sets up an irresistible metaphor for the phenomenon: pandas are eating dim sum. Sales of Panda bonds — the yuan-denominated debt issued in China by overseas companies — are outpacing Hong Kong’s Dim Sum market this year, boosted most recently by Hungary selling its first onshore note after previously issuing in Hong Kong.

     

    IMF Forecasts Faster Chinese Growth as Debt Rises

    China's Crackdown Hasn't Ended $343 Billion Foreign Buying SpreeChina’s government has sent shudders through investors and executives this year by cracking down on the nation’s biggest corporates and their record foreign shopping spree. Regulators worried the acquisitions would destabilize China’s financial system, weaken the currency and create yet more debt, repeating Japan’s mistakes of its go-go years.

    • Brazil has abandoned its fiscal targets for this year and through 2020, after a bribery scandal crippled President Temer’s ability to push economic reforms through Congress and left the public sector with a gaping budget hole.
    • That means Brazil's government debt burden, already the heaviest of any major Latin American economy at 73.1% of GDP, is set to continue rising fast in the coming years.

    The New American Dream: Rent Your Home From A Hedge Fund

    Deep’ Subprime Car Loans Hit Crisis-Era MilestoneAmid all the reflection on the 10-year anniversary of the start of the subprime loan crisis, here’s a throwback that investors could probably do without. There’s a section of the auto-loan market — known in industry parlance as deep subprime — where delinquency rates have ticked up to levels last seen in 2007, according to data compiled by credit reporting bureau Equifax.

    WTI Lifts Towards $48 After Biggest Crude Inventory Draw Since September

    Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Slump As Dollar Jumps Most In 3 Months

    The World's Shipping Companies Are Going Super-SizedThe hulking container ships that transport sneakers, bananas and barbie dolls around the world keep getting bigger. So are the companies that own them. A massive consolidation is underway in the $500 billion global industry and the survivors now enjoy big economies of scale and increased demand, one year after excess capacity caused the sector’s worst-ever crisis — the bankruptcy of South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping Co.

    Are Retail Sales Dead? Depends Where You LookSpending shows signs of life—but only shoppers’ chosen stores of the moment.

    Dick's(DKS) CEO: "The Retail Industry Is In Panic Mode"

     

    • Target (NYSE:TGTreports comparable sales increased 1.3% in Q2 to top the consensus estimate for a 0.7% gain.
    • Comparable digital channel sales rose 32% during the quarter to contribute 1.1 percentage points to comparable sales growth.
    • The retailer's gross margin rate fell back 40 bps to 30.5% vs. 31.0% consensus as aggresssive pricing played in. Adjusted EBIT came in at 6.8% of sales vs. 7.7% a year ago.
    • Looking ahead, Target expects Q3 EPS of $0.75 to $0.95 vs. $0.79 consensus and full-year EPS of $4.34 to $4.54 vs. $3.80 to $4.20 prior and $4.39 consensus.
    • Previously: Target beats by $0.04, be
      • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has set a budget of roughly $1B to procure and produce original content over the next year, WSJ reports, and could acquire and produce as many as 10 television shows.
      • The budget will be in the hands of Hollywood veterans Jamie Erlicht and Zack Van Amburg, poached in June from Sony Corp. to oversee content acquisition and video strategy.

  2. “The best interest of the patient is the only interest to be considered…” -W.J. Mayo

    1910

     

    http://www.clinicguide.org/the-best-interest-of-the-patient-is-the-only-interest-to-be-considered-w-j-mayo/



  3. Good morning, All! 

    We're back to our regular schedule! Today's webinar will be at 1pm, here:

    http://philstockworld.enterthemeeting.com/m/GGBKUMXR




  4. Bitcoin tumbles below $4,000




  5. Trump praises Kim for delaying attack



  6. Phil/DBA

    Thank you!

    I knew something was not right.

    Somehow, and I don't know how, I have the 2018 spread

    2018 $19 longcall for $2.36, NOW $0.80

    And

     

     

     

    And the

     

     

    $23 short call for $0.60, now $0.08

    And the 2018 $21 puts for  $1.56, now $2.10

    Where is the roll? Don't know how I missed that


  7. Good Morning.


  8. Savi- FWIW- I am had the same position except there was a roll back in June -the 18-Jan $19 calls were rolled to 19-Jan $17's. 


  9. No break for CBI yet…

    CB&I downgraded at Jefferies

    Chicago Bridge (NYSE:CBI) is down 5.4% in early trade after Jefferies lowered its rating on the stock to Hold from Buy, with a price target of $12 (from $35).

    The firm is concerned that cost overruns at the company's two LNG projects could re-emerge, adding risk to 2017-2019 earnings.


  10. CBI    that downgrade prompted lots of put buying today.  notably 2395 Jan $10's

    JUNO   one of Pharm's mentions saw 1500 Jan19 $40 calls bought for $3.30


  11. EIA confirms draw but little reaction – they are in big trouble!

    Crude: -8.945MM, Exp. -3.1MM
    Distillate: +702K, Exp. -0.572MM
    Gasoline +22K, Exp. -1.078MM
    Cushing: +678K
    Production: +79K
    Imports +364K


  12. TCEHY   nice 5% move


  13. Phil,

    I'm short /CL at 48.75. How low do you think it will go?


  14. A question for any of you computer techies out there- I have and old HP still working OK but having a problem with Microsoft Outlook 2007 which came installed on the unit when originally purchased. I had a tech look at it and he said to re-install Outlook. Unfortunately, I do not have the product key for that s/w so cannot get a replacement disk or download a replacement version. Anyone know of a work around short of just buying new Office s/w?

    Thx


  15. Hi Phil and All – What do you think of MCK as a trade idea? 


  16. Phil – Averages –  Here are what I and the stats consider the nine deadliest MLB HITTERS during their era's. They are ordered by time period in which they played. All time avg, name, lifetime avg, era, #batting titles.

    Considering the differing era's, training methods, league expansion, position specialization and eventual racial integration of the sport, the accomplishment's of the latter three are not to be taken lightly.

    Cabrera is a modern day Clemente, both hitting for avg with power.  Along with Carew and Gwynn, these three faced modern day starters and bullpen's, making their feats much more difficult.

    #1 Ty Cobb .366  1905-1928 #1: 12

    #10 Babe Ruth .342 1914 – 1935 #1: 1

    #16 Lou Gehrig .340 1923 – 1939 #1: 1

    #41 Joe DiMaggio .325 1936 – 1951 #1: 2

    #7 Ted Williams .344 1939 – 1960 #1: 6

    #59 Roberto Clemente .317 1955 – 1972 #1: 4

    #34 Rod Carew .328 1967 – 1985 #1: 7

    #18 Tony Gwynn .338 1982 – 2001  #1: 8

    #55 Miguel Cabrera .318 2003 – 2017  #1: 4

    What does this have to do with PSW or the stock market?  Part 2 shall explain and Out.


  17. @pstas -  Recommend switching to the browser based version of outlook.  Then it can just be on any browser, any computer – accessible from anywhere… and you don't have to keep updating sw.  I think it is free just like gmail. 


  18. Phil – Averages Deux – Kurt Bevacqua Lifetime .236 BA; 1971 – 1985; #1: Never in anything, other than Tommy Lasorda's eyes.

    WAR: Wins Above Replacement, a single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team, above what a replacement player (think AA or AAA) would add.

    Scale for a single season: 8+MVP; 5+AllStar; 2+Starter; 2-0 Reserve; <0 Replacement Level

    Bevacqua's 15 Year Career WAR: NEGATIVE -3.8

    When Bevacqua batted, opposing teams and pitchers never complained. When Cobb batted and didn't get a hit or when Ruth or Gehrig batted and they didn't hit a home run, some fans wanted to complain.

    Some want to complain about your long term value picks.  Your getting the royal Bevacqua treatment, and you don't deserve it. 

    From your May portfolio reviews, and we know some positions are taken to hedge.  Portfolio, Open Positions, Negative Return, Positive Return, Average

    Port    Open    Neg    Pos    Avg

    LTP    148        53        95        .641

    STP     18        10          8         .444

    BFP     48        20        28        .583

    OOP    35       15        20        .571

    HEG    44        15       29        .659

    TOT  293      113     180        .614

    In my best Tommy Lasorda, I don't want to hear anymore f*ckin whining about a dozen or so positions which have yet to deliver.  Show some patience and gratitude. This guy is bustin his ass, sprayin hits all over and knocking em out of the f*ckin park. 

    If one wants to make money, they should send a f*ckin limousine to make sure Phil is in their stock pickin line up.  Your our all time stock market batting champion brother. :-)

    "F*ckin Bevacqua, he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a f*ckin boat" – Tommy Lasorda – Here's that classic locker room audio clip, that never fails to put a huge f*ckin grin on my face and Out.



  19. Las Vegas, Macau and the Future of Work


  20. Phil – Post Averages Note –  We wanted to make it Apples to Apples for our baseball analogy to show some perspective with the greats. With investments, it's about ROI, not about average. And your anything but  and Out. 


  21. Ilene – MCK – in the same boat with CAH and ABC.  Fewer products with price increases, and those price increases are at lower rates.  Branded drug pricing margin squeeze will effect these wholesalers.


  22. Hola people!  

    Back from the big apple and boy are people getting sick of Trump – especially as he's now tying up traffic too.

    DBA/Maya – Well in that case you need to roll it along to the 2019 but, otherwise, same thing.  Since $21 is not too realistic for the short puts, I'd just offer to roll to the 2019 $20 puts even and see if you get a bite and keep an eye on the spread so it doesn't get away from you.

    CBI/Learner – Amazing how speculating as to the possibility of an impact to earnings can knock something down like that while actually not earning money (TSLA) is rewarded.  

    Oil barely hit $48 before collapsing again:

    $47.25 has been bouncy so far:

    /CL/Japar – I'd stop out at $47.25 if it goes over, that's $1,500 per contract and you can short again below $47 or at $47.50 or $48.

    MCK/Ilene – Yet another drug-dealing middle-man that's soaking consumers on health care costs.  They've restructured so I don't have a good handle on what they look like now and I think AMZN is coming after their business.  As they stand now, they are a good niche player but, long-term, I'm concerned about the niche surviving, as are many – which is why they are prone to these big sell-offs.  If $130 holds again, it might be worth a poke.  

    And what Naybob said.  

    Averages/Naybob – I'm pretty sure Ty Cobb would kick as much ass today as he did 100 years ago.  Keep an eye on Aaron Judge, he's going to be good – if he learns to be more patient on pitches.  As to me, I often say, if you manage your cash properly, all you have to do is bat .500 and you'll do very well – the rest is just bonus money.  Thanks.


  23. Ilene, MCK is in the middle of a 52 week range dropped 25% over the year and is in the same field as GILD and ESRX. We do have GILD and ESRX in variously ports. GILD has recovered nicely.

    MCK pays a div. nothing to crow about .9% P.A. Under present circumstances I would not enter any play.

    However if you keen the one you could only look at is a Leap play Jan 19 120/145 BCS at a cost of 16.20 and still you could reduce your cost by selling a 130 put for 8.70. So for a net of some 8$ you are in 25$ play provided it holds somewhat 145. Meanwhile you obviously can sell 1/2 monthly caller against it for extra income.


  24. MCK/Yodi – My understanding is they are more of a drug distributor than producer, which is why I have less respect for them.

    Trump's Strategic Policy Committee is completely disbanding.  So much for Trump having "many to take their place".  I think he was confusing the committee with a hydra:

    Image result for hydra percy jackson animated gif

    For every CEO that drops out of the Manufacturing Council, I have many to take their place. Grandstanders should not have gone on. JOBS!

    Wasn't Trump's whole strength supposed to be his great ties to our business leaders?  

    What a joke this guy is!  

    Webinar time


  25. The President's Strategic and Policy Forum has disbanded as the backlash continues.  When businesses start leaving, it's goodbye President.  Politicians get very concerned when business might not fill their coffers.


  26. and now Trump's manufacturing council is gone too.  Wonder what the tweets will be tonight.


  27. What an embarrassment this guy is….. :(



  28. I imagine all these CEOs realize the possible damage to their brands at this point. They had no choice but to leave and of course Trump preempts them by disbanding the groups… No one quits on him!


  29. NVIDIA / Phil,

    A friend of mine was strongly suggesting NVIDIA as its growth story is outstanding. Would like to know your thoughts.

    Thanks as always.

    Pat


  30. stjean – I don't know about you, but I feel I'm channeling my inner nostradamus when talking about our potus…. everything comes true with a bonus for added value    :)  


  31. FlynnPeachment Baby…..


  32. Phil – Your welcome.  I like Judge, Stanton, Votto, Harper, and a healthy Trout is a monster. Cabrera is on the back nine at 34. 


  33. NN, Yodi and Phil: Thanks for the feedback on MCK!  I'll try to come up with something else. :-)  


  34. HOV/Phil – why is HOV such a laggard to PHM, TOL, KBH?


  35. pstas,

    HP with pre-loaded software should have one or more restore disks (at least for Windows but probably also for Office/Outlook), you could check with HP if you don't have them.


  36. StJL – Income/Debt Perspective – The chart utilized is so disingenuous as to classify its authors as EEG flatliners, MSM sell outs or Fed tools.

    Household debt ratios (service payments as a % of disposable income) have fallen because the mortgage component dropped off a cliff, look here…. Notice when? Why? when the bank foreclosed, they lost their homes and are now renters.  Movin on up…

    You want the truth? look here… real household median income is lower than in 1999, negative real household income growth for 18 glorious years. 

    Any body attempting to sell the notion, that real income and disposable income to debt is growing, or that record level debt is all good, is going to be taken out to the woodshed, and yes there is something nasty in there, and given the public flogging that taint wipe so richly deserves and Out.


  37. CBI breaks below $10… ouch. 


  38. Tweets/Rustle – I'm sure he'll say they were bums and he doesn't need them.

    Wheeee – got my Dow losses back, now going for $1,000 again.  

    NVDA/Pat – Talked about in webinar.  Bump from coin mining may not last and IOT is a ways off.  Assuming they make $2Bn this year, at $165 they are priced at $98Bn so in no way are they cheap so I'd just watch and hope for a pullback.

    HOV/Scott -Well, they were up 100% but then bulled back.  They are pretty aggressive and I think their debt load spooks investors.  

    K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. — Moody's Rates Hovnanian's Secured Notes Caa2, changes outlook to stable

    K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. — Moody's Publishes Covenant Quality Assessment for K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Bond Offering

    Higher rates will not be good for them so they are being treated more like a REIT, which is fair given the stance they've taken.


  39. Ilene – ideas, ideas, blue-sky, more and more cities, counties and states need tax revenue or they will be going BK.  Think sin tax, vice, what sells in tough times, guns, ammo, alcohol, gambling, skin trade (porn), tobacco, drugs (you were with MCK).

    Try some tobacco alternatives, by 2025 big tobacco might be making more money on liquid nicotine and THC, than their traditional cash crop.

    Think new paradigm Mary Jane, pot stocks, manufacturers of paraphernalia, atomizers that can vaporize liquid, wax or dry substance burn.  But, the money is in the spice, viz Dune, the growers and cookers of the magic elixirs.  

    And truly recession proof,  Death takes a holiday? I never saw a poor mortician or funeral home director. An ever growing public (obesity and diabetic epidemic) is just dying to give them their business.  Just blue skying and Out.


  40. ilene – BTW – Just to put that VICE in perspective…. $1 invested in Altria (MO) stock in 1968 is now worth $6638, a 20.6% annual return for over FIFTY years.  The WORLD's most successful stock EVER and nothing even comes close.  One dollar invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 was worth $6.3M by 2010.  I'd rather fight than switch, and Out.


  41. NVDA

    Yes, its kinda expensive but you could sell the Jan $130 puts for $5 with an initial poke at it


  42. LB beat expectations but lowered guidance… down 7% AH.  Comps down 8%.

    Now dividend yield is at almost 7%.  Time to sell some puts tomorrow.  


  43. Good morning!   I made the mistake of laying down and fell asleep on the couch…  blush  Been a long day..

    LB seems to be down 10% on earnings despite beating estimates at 0.48 vs 0.44 expected.  Guidance is only $3-$3.20/share so I guess $40 is too much to ask?  This market make no fundamental sense….

    MO/Naybob – I think they'll get into the pot biz once it's nationally legal.

    Image result for philip morris pot cigarettes

       Oil back at $46.78.

    Markets barely held green and only thanks to the Dollar taking a big hit.  


  44. Phil, Re: NVDA, Unfortunately, I didn't make the webinar. For those of us who didn't would you please summarize you comments?  Thanks!!


  45. Power Naps --  They are awesome!  

    Phil,  /NG, in your estimate, what do you consider the floor? (not sure that's the right word).  When I look at the chart, I noticed it dropped during the last half of 15 and rebounded back first half of 16.  Before and after the dip, $2.50 looks like the floor.  And… in case you don't mention it.  How far back in time do you take into consideration, and is there a difference in finding a floor with a Stock vs Future?     

    Thanks in advance!  


  46. Joseph, good question, you are on the path to being the new Yodi for futures. I'm in Thailand and hard for me to be up to date on Phils day to day stuff but very happy with his planting trees philosophy bringing yearly returns of slowly making 20+% returns on capital yearly for the past few years and putting in very little time. Just making little adjustments along the way and using Yodi's cherry calls on my BCS's and Buy/Writes.


  47. Good morning!

    Not much going on, Futures down a bit but inconclusive so far.  Dollar testing $94 again.

    NVDA/Newt – The gist of it is they are a nice company with good long-term prospects but not cheap after rising 60% in 3 months (I would think that part is obvious).   Good one for a watch list.

    Naps/Joseph – I don't think it's a power nap when you sit on the couch to have some tea and then wake up an hour later thinking "WTF?"  I knew I was pushing it doing the Webinar after the TV thing, which is always a hectic morning.  Also, I was up late Tues night - not even 4 hours sleep, so I'm not willing to head of to shady acres just yet but it does piss me off because I used to pull whole weeks like that without feeling tired. 

    /NG/Joseph – I go as far back as charts allow when looking over charts.  /NG has a pretty good floor at $1.80 but I'd say $2 is reliable from a technical standpoint and then I add points for exports and subtract points for shale production, Qatar and the lack of movement on CNG cars and I'd say $2.20 should hold as a floor but that doesn't change the fact that $3.50-4 is my long-term goal so I'm willing to take a hit on the way down and be patient but I certainly want to be long when something does happen (and now it's hurricane season).  So I error on the side of being long though at the moment I want it either over $3 or back around $2.60 before I start again.

    In the case of stocks or futures, I generally put on my M&A hat and think of how much I'd actually buy the company (or mine the commodity) for.  That's why I tend to be early on value plays, they often pass below what I believe is a fair value and that only makes me happy to buy more but I'm a very patient investor.  

    Nice job tree-planting Jomp, congrats and enjoy!

      


  48. While you still sleeping,

    Just having a look at CLDT, smaller type Reit trust company, located in WPB Florida, primarily invests in premium-branded upscale extended-stay and select-service hotels.

    I did have this stock previously on my books, and the same might fit in to my armchair trading portfolio.

    The company pays a monthly div. of .11. The yearly div. is given as 6.54%.

    I have set up the following trade.

    Sell the Feb 18 20/20 straddle for 2.15 and buy the stock for 20.18. The sale of the put will obligate you to buy the stock at 20$ with a brake even protection of 18.80.

    The above play should produce a combined income of Option sale and monthly div. of .46 cents per month. Based on the purchase of 100 shares and 1 Feb18 option straddle the income is 46.00 per month.

    Don’t bet the farm, I will make an offer with 400 shares!

    Obviously check the market first, as it looks like a drop at the opening.


  49. Yesterday I tried to add some more armchair trades to STWD, but hard to fill my Mar18 22.5/22.5 Straddle for 1.80. Again would show a combined monthly income of .41 over the 212 day period.


  50. CIM an other good play, if you do not have the same play already. I hold the Mar. 18 19/18 strangle for a combined return of .46 cents per month.


  51. 20% – Jomptien  -- That is GREAT news.  A 20% return without employees, customers, bosses, or tenants.  What is not to love?  

    I am planting some shrubs right now.  And, while that paint dries, futures will help me water those into trees, that grow into a nice healthy forest.  Thanks to this membership @ PSW!   

    A Yodi of futures, hmm… well, I am not sure about that, but I am looking forward to the journey and I have a great team of people to help along the way, including the wizard himself.  This little grasshopper has 9000 plus hours of headwind and patience of a gnat's eyelash.  So, it should be fun. 


  52. Sorry Phil these are just not the 1000$ a day plays.!!!!! There I pass to compete.


  53. /NG – Phil, a follow-up.  I am planning my entry/exit of a futures trade and today NGZ is @ $3.13 and current month is $2.88.  Is it possible to determine the NGZ price point, when the current month drops by X?   Say, /NG hits your price target of $2.60, where would NGZ be?   Again, like a broken record.  Thank you!

    Yodi, do you blog about your trip. I lived the lifestyle for about 18 months, within the USA.  Loved IT!!!


  54. Joseph,

    I started but to much work. My wife keeps record mainly with photos. Why did you give it up?


  55. Yodi,  I loved it, the wife, not so much.  That blog inspired us to give it a try and WOW!  I must confess, after I downsized into that tiny space, the world was lifted off my shoulders.  Same here, the wife kept a FB account to post pics and stuff for friends and family.  I thought the same thing on the blog.  It reminded me of work, so I ran the other way.  Thanks for sharing!