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GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

Courtesy of Mish

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are in the same ballpark this week.  The GDPNow estimate is 3.4%. The Nowcast estimate is 1.9%.

GDPNow Forecast: 3.4 Percent — August 25, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on August 25, down from 3.8 percent on August 16. The forecast of third-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.3 percentage points to 3.5 percent after the Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production report on August 17 and the forecast of third-quarter real residential investment growth fell from 3.4 percent to –0.4 percent following the housing market data releases on August 23 and 24. The forecast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 6.4 percent to 8.1 percent after this morning’s durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast Forecast: 2.9 percent — August 25, 2017

It’s far too early for me to make an estimate.  We are looking at reports for July. Data and revisions will roll in for another three months.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


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