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Curious Results: Hurricane Harvey Impacts National Activity, Not Dallas Region Activity

Courtesy of Mish.

Those looking for further proof that the Fed regional activity reports are totally bogus can find it in a pair of Fed economic reports today.

Let’s investigate the divergence between the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Production

The survey states “Texas factory activity continued to increase in September. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down to 19.5 from 20.3 in August, indicating output grew at about the same pace as last month.”

Econoday offers this blurb:

Hurricane Harvey didn’t slow down Texas manufacturing at all based on the Dallas Fed’s September report which is led by a strong 4.3 point gain in the general activity index to 21.3 for the best result in 7 months. Readings throughout the report are far above zero to indicate robust month-to-month growth: production 19.5 in September vs 20.3 in August, new orders 18.6 vs 14.3, hours worked 18.4 vs 14.4.

Employment is a special highlight, at 16.3 vs 9.9 to indicate the sharpest rate of hiring in nearly 3-1/2 years. There is an indication of price pressures likely tied to Harvey and its effect on petroleum costs as prices paid rose to 34.9 vs 26.9 for the highest reading since July 2011.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-Month Moving Average


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