Comment by phil

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phil
December 11th, 2017 at 3:57 pm

HBI/Rookie –   Well, if you were never in it, no harm in waiting.  I still like the trade – it has a long way to go but we'll be picking a new entry from scratch in Jan, when we begin re-deploying out capital.  



It's up 10% from our entry and hopefully will pull back a bit before racing up to $22.

Stocks to watch this week

• Subscription notice: You can automatically receive Stocks to Watch every week by following the SA Stocks to Watch account and setting email alerts on.
• Key events are scheduled for the companies listed below next week.
• Expected IPO filings: Adial Pharmaceutical (Pending:ADIL), Casa Systems (Pending:CASA) and Burger King Brasil on Dec. 14; Newmark Group (Pending:NMRK) on Dec. 15.
• Star Wars: The timing for Disney's (NYSE:DIS) The Last Jedi opening on Dec. 15 is promising amid the consumer spending bounce and with the MoviePass (NASDAQ:HMNY) model generating interest with millennials. Numbers to watch include the early box office forecast for a +$200M opening weekend and the $248M mark delivered by The Force Awakens in 2015. Theater chains AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), Cinemark (NYSE:CNK), Regal Entertainment (NYSE:RGC), Marcus Corporation (NYSE:MCS) and IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) hope for a strong buzz factor into the weekend, while Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) eyes a Star Wars toys boom.
• Bitcoin watch: Looking for Bitcoin exposure without having to deal with tokens, mining and eye-popping volatility? Fundstrat says potential Bitcoin/Blockchain equity plays include Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTCQX:GBTC), MGT Capital Investments (OTCQB:MGTI), HIVE Blockchain Technologies (OTCPK:PRELF), U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW), DigitalX (OTC:DGGXF), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), CBOE Holdings (NASDAQ:CBOE), Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Square (NYSE:SQ).
• Notable earnings reports: Salesforce.com on Dec. 11; Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY), VeriFone (NYSE:PAY) on Dec. 12; ABM Industries (NYSE:ABM) and Nordson (NASDAQ:NDSN) on Dec. 13; Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), Jabil (NYSE:JBL) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) on Dec. 14. See Seeking Alpha's Earnings Calendar for more.
• Quiet period expirations: Retail upstart Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) is up over 50% from where its IPO into its quiet period expiration on Dec. 12. Other names to watch include SendGrid (NYSE:SEND) and Arsanis (Pending:ASNS) on Dec. 11, along with Bluegreen Vacations (Pending:BXG), SailPoint Technologies (NYSE:SAIL) and Level Brands (NYSEMKT:LEVB) on Dec. 12.
• IPO/secondary share lockup period expirations: Athenex (NASDAQ:ATNX) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) on Dec. 11; Portola Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PTLA) and Adomani (NASDAQ:ADOM) on Dec. 12; Boston Omaha (OTCQX:BOMN), Interspace Diagnostics (NASDAQ:IDXG), Curis (NASDAQ:CRIS) and Workhorse (NASDAQ:WKHS) on Dec. 13; Acushnet (NASDAQ:GOLF) on Dec. 14; Genpact (NYSE:G) on Dec. 15.
• Annual meetings: The headliner of the week is Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK) on Dec. 14 amid the heated proxy fight between the retailer and Marcato Capital. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) and 1-800-Flowers.com (NASDAQ:FLWS) on Dec. 11, as well as United Natural Foods (NASDAQ:UNFI) on Dec. 13 are also on the calendar.
• Analyst/investor meetings: Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) on Dec. 12; TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL), Lending Tree (NASDAQ:TREE) and Jones Lang Lasalle (NYSE:JLL) on Dec. 13.
• Business update/Guidance calls: American Water Works (NYSE:AWK), Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) and Principal Financial (NYSE:PFG) on Dec. 12; Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) on Dec. 13; Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE:AXTA) and Prudential (NYSE:PRU) on Dec. 14; MetLife (NYSE:MET) on Dec. 15.
• M&A watch: Deals are heating up in a number of sectors. The deadline for bids on Unilever's (UN, UL) spreads business is Monday, while an Apollo Global acquisition of Qdoba (NASDAQ:JACK) is said to be imminent. Disney (DIS) and Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX, FOXA) are a step closer to striking an asset deal which could include Hulu.
• FCC watch: The commission will vote on repealing current net neutrality rules during a scheduled meeting. The usual media suspects such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Sprint (NYSE:S), AT&T (NYSE:T), Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are likely to weigh in on the consequences of the vote.
• Credit card delinquency reports: American Express (NYSE:AXP), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Capital One (NYSE:COF), Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) are all due to post credit card chargeoff data on Dec. 15.
• Cowen Networking & Cybersecurity Summit: Presenters at the gathering from Dec. 12-13 include execs from Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET), MACOM Technology (NASDAQ:MTSI), NeoPhotonics (NYSE:NPTN), Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP), Cisco (CSCO) and Quatenna Communications (NASDAQ:QTNA).
• Barron's mentions: The publication cuts right to the chase to name its top picks for 2018. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD), Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), Anthem (NYSE:ANTM) and US Foods Holding (NYSE:USFD) all make the list. There's a less optimistic view on the off-price retail sector expressed, with Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) seen at risk for share price falls.
• Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, Nasdaq.com, CNBC.

Goldman unveils sector-by-sector view for 2018 stock winners

• Goldman Sachs equity research analysts publish a slew of sector-by-sector outlooks for 2018:
• Aerospace/Defense: Bullish on defense, more selective in commercial aerospace – top picks NOC, LLL, FLIR, HRS, LDOS, TDG.
• Agriculture: Neutral overall but potential upside in nitrogen, value-added protein and biofuels – top picks CF, UAN, DAR, GPRE, TSN.
• Autos: Cautious as North America auto cycle likely continues "to cool off, on its way to a normalized SAAR by 2020" – potential strength in secular growth exposed names APTV, DLPH, VC.
• Chemicals: Three interesting value names, including two with near-term catalysts in sight (DWDP, PAH) and one that does yet not fully reflect an underlying mix shift in earnings (NYSE:EMN).
• Construction: Prefers building products on more dynamism driven by continued input inflation, rising rates, peak PMI and an evolving legislative environment – MHK is top pick.
• Machinery: Group is a buy as share of industrial capex is 20% below normalized levels, used equipment inventories are lean, Street estimates are still beatable – top picks CAT, DE, AGCO, TRMB.
• Medical Technology: Attractive view on med tech, neutral on life science tools – adds HOLX to conviction list; other top picks BAX, EW, ISRG.
• Multi-Industry: Optimistic as bottom-up capex remains positive while tax reform could spur investment, though high quality cyclicals preferred – IR upgraded to Buy.
• Packaging, Paper & Forest Products: WRK is top pick given exposure to e-commerce growth and self-help opportunities.
• Transports: Sees divergence between airfreight/logistics (attractive) and rails (cautious) due to continued strength in consumer/logistics business lines, deceleration in industrial/commodity business lines – recommends FDX, UPS, XPO, CNI.
• Source: Bloomberg First Word

It's not yet safe to take a flyer on GE, Goldman analyst says

• General Electric (NYSE:GE) shares are reiterated with a Neutral rating at Goldman Sachs, which says it is staying on the sidelines despite the recent selloff until it sees more evidence that a turnaround – proof of a recovery in cash flows and end markets – is working.
• Analyst Joe Ritchie says 2018 will be a transitional year for GE, with investors focused on whether or not the company can meet its targets: "On cost-outs, GE is targeting $3B-plus of actions in 2017-18 to generate $2B-plus of net benefits, and we believe it will be critical for GE to demonstrate core margin expansion."
• Progress in GE Power also is a key area of debate, and the "ability to offset end market weakness with cost-outs and show 60% free cash flow conversion in 2018 (vs. negative in 2017) will be a key measure in increasing confidence [and] believability that fundamentals can turn around by 2019-20," Ritchie writes.

3M reiterated at Underweight by same J.P. Morgan analyst who said sell GE

• The same analyst who presciently slapped a Sell rating on GE also is bearish on 3M(NYSE:MMM), reiterating his Underweight rating on the view that 3M's valuation reflects too much optimism about its fundamentals.
• J.P. Morgan's Stephen Tusa thinks the market is mistaking some cyclical improvement for visible, execution-driven growth that 3M can control, when these factors actually are out of its hands.
• "Similar to lower multiple/lower quality stories, 3M has enough noise in the numbers (gains representing 5%-10% of earnings, dramatic stock comp payments) to call it the beginning of a trend line on margins [but] 3M this cycle has had a 'perfect storm' for relative outperformance as lack of oil/gas exposure has boosted relative organic while providing significant raw materials benefits, an element that is cyclical," Tusa writes.
• The analyst concludes that 3M is a staple-like asset but he does "not see enough growth and/or free cash flow to put into the compounder category where it currently stands."