Oxen Group Trades
Overnight Trade: This One is in the Bag!
by David Ristau - March 17th, 2010 12:19 pm
I love my clever title for this post. Today, we are going back into the retail sector again to look to make some money. Yesterday, retail was good to us with a pick up of Rue21 Inc. (RUE). Our Buy Pick of the Day was good for 3% as we got in at the beginning of the day at 33.30. The stock quickly picked up momentum as investors got into RUE, hoping that the company would repeat performance like competitors Aeropostale (ARO) and Forever 21 (privately held) were able to turn out this past quarter. Today, the company reported a…
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The Oxen Report: Awaiting Fed Decision, Where Will Market Move?
by David Ristau - March 16th, 2010 9:01 am
Hope everyone had a great weekend. We are looking forward to another great week with The Oxen Report. We start off today with what should be a pretty neutral day in the markets. In pre-market, we got some good news out of the housing sector, which has not been releasing much in the way of positive data as of late. Housing starts and building permits for the month of February beat estimates; however, the market appears to be latching onto that it was the second straight month that building permits and housing starts fell. As investors await the Fed decision,…
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The Oxen Report: Can We Go Any Higher?
by David Ristau - March 12th, 2010 9:16 am
Yesterday, we played an Overnight Trade of the Day with GMX Resources. We got involved at 10.25, and we will exit at the start of today for a gain of about 2%. It was an okay gain for the Overnight Play. The company reported a beat on estimates with 0.20 vs. the expected 0.09, but there was a lot of restatement of further losses and one-time charges that are going to weigh on it. You want to get out ASAP because I don’t think this will stay up for long.
The market today is really confusing me. I spent the longest time just deciding what to do. It seems like no one has any idea, and I don’t feel comfortable recommending stocks that I don’t feel comfortable with, so I am going to do a Short Sale that I like. I don’t know where the market is going…
Short Sale of the Day: Hibbett Sports Inc. (HIBB)
Analysis: For some reason, I cannot recommend a Buy Pick. Nothing meets my criteria because it is all way too overvalued. I want to be bullish. I want to blindly recommend some ETF or stock, but I just cannot. The market will most likely rise today, but I think it is going to be pretty neutral throughout the day. If the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes in worse, it will really hurt things. And the question keeps ringing in my head…can we go any higher?
Instead, I went with what I think is a bit safer. We have a typical Oxen Short Sale on our hands, as we are looking for a stock that is getting a bit too much ahead of itself. Hibbett Sports Inc. is one of these companies that might be a bit too much ahead of itself. The stock is opening with over 6% in gains already today. This is a stock with low volume and average beta. This type of move is a large move for it. It is very similar to the Short Sale we had on Wednesday with Harbin Electric (HRBN), a company that gained big going into earnings, gained big after earnings, and had a pop to start the day. Yet, we saw it drop 12% from its high.
Hibbett is most likely going to continue to rise due to the market conditions and the fact that it beat earnings. The company reported an EPS of 0.40 vs. the expected 0.31.…
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The Oxen Report: Overnight Trade Looks to Independent Oil Producer
by David Ristau - March 11th, 2010 12:38 pm
Yesterday, we had a nice day with our Short Sale of the Day on Harbin Electric Inc. (HRBN), which was a short sale good for 2.8%. We got into Harbin in the morning at 25.60. We watched the stock sit at 25.75 for the majority of the day, but at 2 PM, HRBN started to lose buyer interest as seller interest rose. The stock plummeted down to 24.21. We exited at 24.90 for a 2.8% gain. The stock is down today to 22.50s, which is good for over 12% in gains. I hope some of you had more risk than I do and took advantage of that gain. Our Buy Pick of the Day did not meet our intraday requirements, so we did not get involved in ERX or ERY. Either way, it was a good day.
Now, we get into today’s Overnight Trade of the Day…
Overnight Trade of the Day: GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR)
Analysis: It is not typical for me to recommend an Overnight Trade in a stock that is up over 4% already the day before a company reports its earnings, but this opportunity is looking pretty stellar. I want to get involved with GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR), which is a small independent oil and natural gas producer in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico. The company is definitely a small player in the oil game, but I think it presents a very solid opportunity going into tomorrow for some nice gains.
The first reason that attracted me to GMXR, which is not even the best reason for investing into GMXR is that independent oil companies, as a whole, have been having pretty good quarterly reports for Q4 of 2009. 24 out of 34 of the companies that reported earnings in the past month, reported surprise EPS gains. Most of these gains were pretty outstanding, as well. GMXR’s closest competitors have done pretty well. The closest company that resembles GMXR is Panhandle Oil and Gas, who produces both oil and natural gas, is involved in the same region as GMXR, and has similar market capitilization. That company produced a surprise estimate of 1900%. Another close company did miss estimates, but it has struggled to pull profits and reduced its losses exceptionally in the past quarter. This company is Petroleum Development Corp. Overall, independent oil and gas has been surprising a lot of estimates. GMXR’s EPS estimate is to hit 0.09, which be…
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The Oxen Report: Opportunities Limited on a Neutral Wednesday
by David Ristau - March 10th, 2010 9:13 am
Yesterday was a pretty rough day for us. Both of our picks were pretty weak. The Buy Pick of the Day was the Direxion Oil Bear ETF (ERY). We got involved in the early going at 10.47 and saw it decline throughout the day. I said to sell at 10.22 in an alert towards the end of the day for a 2.4% loss. We could’ve held to the end of the day and only taken a small loss, but either way, it was a loser. Our Short Sale of the Day was about a 1% loser, as well. We got involved in Textron at 21.31, and we saw it bounce around all day, never making more than 1% for us. It ended the day in the green but in the red for us. We sold at 21.60 for 1.3% loss. 0/2 never makes me happy, but we have made some smart picks today that are cautious and careful. Our entry ranges are very specific, and I think we should be happy. We are dipping back into the oil market because I think it is ready to make a move. It might be the downside, however, it could be going a lot higher. Inventories will tell the tale…
Let’s get into the picks…
Buy Pick of the Day: Direxion Oil and Gas Bull/Bear 3x ETF (ERX/ERY)
Analysis: We have had some trouble to start this week with our bearish positions. Yesterday, in the late afternoon, I wrote a bit of a muse talking about how we need the fundamentals to be there to make these positions come true. So, today, I am following that advice. We are going to be extra careful and picky in getting into positions. We are going to the oil market again today, but we are only going to play it if one of two things happens.
At 10:30 AM, we will get the release of the crude oil inventories. This will decide how we will approach our Buy Pick of the Day. Crude inventories came out at 4.1 million. It did not have a major effect on the oil market. Two weeks in a row, though, of big increases, especially with the market as high flying as it has been will have an effect. Therefore, if inventories are above 4.1 million, then we will want to buy ERY right away..png)
If inventories, however, are between 0 and 4.1 million, then we…
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The Oxen Report: Oil and Market Look Down, We Continue Our Bear Approach
by David Ristau - March 9th, 2010 9:04 am
As many of you have probably read, one year ago was the lowest we got to in the stock market. Today is also the anniversary of my stock picking beginnings. Its my one year anniversary. In the past year, I have turned my Buy Pick Portfolio into over $6000 from the beginnings of $3000, which is over 129% in profits. You can read more about that in my post I had over the weekend. Yesterday, we want 1/1ish. Our Short Sale of the Day was a success, pulling in 3%. We short sold Suntech Power in the morning at 15.20 for a 3% gain, selling at 14.76, taking advantage of missed earnings in Yingli Green and an overvalued STP. We were able to get in at 15.20 due to our Morning Levels Alert, which adjusted our entry range upwards and better positioned us. This alert was available to our Oxen Alert members. Our Buy Pick of the Day we held overnight, which was SRS. We bought into SRS at 6.78 and closed yesterday down about 2%. This morning, however, the stock is looking to open just a few cents under. We are looking to get out for 1-3% on that one today.
Today, however, the market is looking to get a wee bit closer to where it was one year ago, as things are looking pretty down for the day. On a lack of economic news and earnings and seven days of rallying, it is time to the market took a breather. How do we play this breather?
Buy Pick of the Day: Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3x ETF (ERY)
Analysis: Over the past month, oil has been in a stellar rally that I do not think anyone could have predicted. My upwards range on oil over the past couple weeks has been $82-$83 per barrel, and I am putting us into an ETF that inverses the oil companies because we hit that high, and the oil market is turning around. In pre-market, the NYMEX has dropped almost 2% on crude this morning, which is a pretty large amount for the oil market. The market for oil companies has yet to catch up, but it will. The combination of oil dropping like a heavy rock in water and the fact that futures for the open are down around 20 points, make energy inverse ETFs look pretty attractive..png)
This is why I am recommending we buy Direxion’s Daily Energy…
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The Oxen Report: Its Time to Get Our Short Sale On!
by David Ristau - March 8th, 2010 8:57 am
Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Today, we are starting off with a chart of the Dow Jones. This shows you that we have a market that, in the short term, is extremely overvalued. RSI is above 60, the average is moving towards the top of its bollinger bands, and it is overbought on stochastics. All this is showing to me that the market is toppy. That chart is how I want to start this week to show you that I think we are going to be looking at some short sales and inverse ETFs unless we have reason to believe the market will rally. Today, I do not see any major reason to believe that will happen. Also, be sure to check out my Weekend Wrap-Up and Portfolio Update, which shows how we have increased our Buy Pick Portfolio 129% in one year.
Buy Pick of the Day: Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate ETF (SRS)
Analysis: As I have been saying this morning and in my weekend post is that I think we are looking at an overvalued market that will need something to boost it to keep it going. This morning, we got some slightly bullish news in the form of an AIG sale to Metlife, but it is short lived. As of 8:00 AM, futures on the Dow were up 20. As of 8:30 AM, they were at 10. As of 8:45 AM - 2. It is a slow decline because the market is in a position to fall, and the news is not great enough to keep it moving. There is no economic data to sustain the market, and earnings were non-existent. The only even slightly important company to report was Yingli Green (YGE), who we will get to in our short sale.
For that reason, we can position ourselves well today in an inverse ETF for a buy. We want to avoid the financials and energy, however, because we had a major deal with Royal Dutch Shell and Australia Arrow Energy that could confuse the oil ETFs and oil market. AIG is in that financial sector. Therefore, I turn my attention to the under the radar Ultrashort Proshares ETF (SRS) for our Buy Pick of the Day. This one should be a bit of a slipper in the market today. It is sitting neutral in pre-market, but it is a volatile ETF that can really take off at the…
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The Oxen Report: Wrap Up of the Week, Update on Portfolios - Buy Pick Portfolio Up 129% for Year One, Up 10% Since Beginning of Year
by David Ristau - March 6th, 2010 8:26 pm
We had a decent week with a limited number of trades this week as we move into what I think should be a big week for us. The market has increased at some pretty alarming rates over the past couple weeks, and I think we may be setting things up as a bit toppy. Next week, we have a slow week in economic data, earnings reports, and the technicals are showing a majority of stocks and ETFs as overvalued. My early prediction is that we will be looking at some inverse ETFs for Buy Picks and a lot of great short sales.
For this week, we had some positive picks with Ultra Proshares Financials (UYG) and Direxion Daily Real Estate ETF (DRN). We ran into some issues, though, with our Overnight Trade of Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF) and a Short Sale on Dillard’s (DDS). We were able to relay the market’s upward trend into some positives by picking ETFs that were volatile and move with an upward trending market. On the other hand, the solar sector and short sales gave us a headache. Let’s recap:
Winners:
Direxion Daily Real Estate ETF (DRN): On Monday, we relayed this Buy Pick of the Day into a 3% gainer. We got involved at 138.60 and sold at 142.49. We liked DRN because of some great news coming out of Greece that it was stable, some great personal spending numbers that were up much larger than expectations, and the world markets continuing to trend upwards. It all turned into a slow move up for the market, which DRN followed.
Ultra Proshares Financials (UYG): Friday was an up and down day for us. The good side of the day came from a solid 2% move upwards for out UYG daytrade. Things looked to continue upwards on Friday with the GDP report and some good earnings. We liked UYG to move a bit under the radar and follow the market up, and I was right.
Losers:
Dillards (DDS): The major move upwards on Monday made our Short Sale of the Day on Dillards a mistake. The earnings on DDS were pretty exceptional, but I did not think they were good enough to make the stock move up what would be 15% in one day. The stock was up near 10% in pre-market, and it appeared to be a solid short. The market momentum and retail momentum were too great. We lost 3%.
Solarfun Power (SOLF): Solar was not bright for…
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The Oxen Report: Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment to Push Market Higher
by David Ristau - March 5th, 2010 9:13 am
Hello Readers,
SOLF once again looks to have denied us glory in an Overnight Trade. We are just under even from our buy in yesterday, but it appears that we are going to take a small loss on this one. I apologize for the miss, and I will discuss it in more detail in a morning alert once the market opens. For now, though, we want to get out at the open and take our losses.
Let’s get into my Buy Pick of the Day…
Buy Pick of the Day: Ultra Proshares Financials (UYG)
Analysis: The market is looking pretty darn solid today. We saw unemployment rates come in lower than expected at 9.7%, which is not as amazing of a spectacle to the fact that non-farm payrolls came in 36K vs. the expected 55K. That is a huge miss, and it is a great sign that losses are slowly but surely coming to an end. The market is reacting in a positive way with futures over 50 point on the Dow. Yet, the gains are not too much where the market won’t have the ability to continue to rally. A lot of the market is starting to look toppy, which makes me semi-nervous, but I think the market has a lot of reason to soar today.
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I like the Ultra Proshares Financials ETF (UYG) as my play of the day. Going into the day, the ETF is only up 1.5% on a solid day, which means we can still get into it before it starts to run away from us. Further, I am expecting the market to continue this upward trend today. The world’s markets all traded up big today. The oil market is moving upwards. The futures are moving upwards. There is a general positive attitude across the market today…except for solar.
Why the financials? Honestly, I am looking for something a bit under the radar. The big news today is in the communications industry, solar, and jobs data. Financials are not too overvalued going into the day and present a solid intraday trade. There is not a whole lot of news out of the sector, which is not good or bad for us. This one is going to follow the market. Futures continue to strengthen, and this looks to be a solid day. UYG is a battering ram too. It moves up and up with consistency. So, that limits some risk.
Technically, ETFs are…
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The Oxen Report: A Sunny Outlook on Solarfun Power…At Least for Tomorrow
by David Ristau - March 4th, 2010 1:51 pm
Hello readers,
I have a new Overnight Trade of the Day for you. I have been out of the office for the last couple days due to some other commitments, but I am going to be having a really productive week next week for you. If you follow anyone on Seeking Alpha, I just became a certified writer for the site. You can visit me on there at http://seekingalpha.com/author/the-oxen-group. I would love to have you as a follower. Next week, we will be getting back to daily two picks with some overnight trades thrown in there. i am feeling good about next week, so let’s get excited.
Here is the pick…
Overnight Trade of the Day: Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF)
There has been a lot of speculation and turmoil in the solar market. It is one of those extremely volatile markets that can change direction on a dime and is heavily influenced by everything from governments to company reports to the weather. While I am not writing this article as an endorsement of the solar industry as anything productive in the long term. I do think that certain solar stocks, especially some of the undervalued ones, have presented some great trades over the past week and moving into next week. 
One of these such stocks that I am bullish about to buy today and sell tomorrow is SOLF. Solarfun is one of my favorite stocks, so I went extra in-depth on this one to make sure I was getting rid of any biases. The company reports its earnings tomorrow, and I am expecting big things out of SOLF for tomorrow. The company is your typical PV producer with most of its business in China and Germany like many others. Its most similarly structured and sized company is Suntech Power, which is good news for SOLF traders.
Suntech reported some exceptional earnings this morning, beating their estimates by over 100% and shedding light in an industry that has a great quarter but has a lot of questions surrounding it. A lot of these questions involve the market for solar energy. It is a highly subsidized industry that may be facing some major cuts in the coming year from Germany, which gave a lot of these companies a black eye moving into earnings. Solar companies’ response was for five of the major solar producers that have reported so far, all five beat earnings. Looking at Suntech, the company has…
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