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Whitney Tilson Says More Confident of Herbalife Short Position Following Ackman Presentation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Whitney Tilson said in an email Tuesday, that he is more confident in his short position in Herbalife (NYSE: HLF), following Bill Ackman’s presentation. Tilson said he now believes his position has a 76% chance of succeeding vs 63% prior. That’s based on his belief that there is a 95% chance most of the company’s operations are a pyramid scheme, and there is now an 80% chance regulators will intervene.

Herbalife shares rose steadily throughout Ackman’s presentation Tuesday, and end the day up 25% at $77.67

Posted-In: News Movers & Shakers Insider Trades General





Benzinga’s M&A Chatter for Thursday July 10, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Thursday July 10, 2014:

ZF Friedrichshafen Confirms in Talks to Buy TRW Automotive

The Offer:
Shares of TRW Automotive (NYSE: TRW) soared Thursday, on a report from Bloomberg that the company could be acquired for as much as $12 billion by Germany’s ZF Friedrichshafen AG.

TRW later confirmed it had been approached by a potential buyer, followed by Friedrichshafen confirming it was in talks to acquire TRW. Shares of TRW were first halted on a circuit-breaker following the Bloomberg report, eventually hitting a high of $101.98, and then prior to the TRW announcement.

TRW Automotive shares closed off the highs Thursday at $98.91, a gain of more than 8%.

Report PE Firms Have Renewed Interest in Symantec

The Rumor:
Shares of Symantec (NYSE: GME) spiked higher Thursday, on a report from Deal Reporter that the company was in takeover talks with private equity firms, including CVC, Carlyle and Bain. Symantec shareholder Valueact reported a new stake of 7.59 million shares on May 14 and has been seeking changes in the company.

Symantec shares closed Thursday at $22.83, a gain of $0.20.

Crumbs Shares Skyrocket 1200% on Potential Investment

The Investment:
Shares of failed cupcake bakery chain Crumbs (OTC: CRMB) rose 1200% Thursday, hitting a high of $0.55, after closing at just $0.03 on Wednesday, on a report from CNBC that the company was close to securing financing from a group including Marcus Lemonis of CNBC’s “The Profit”. Lemonis plans to move other holdings, including Sweet Pete’s into Crumbs. One of he issues causing problems for Crumbs, was its narrow assortment of product, according to CEO Ed Slezak.

Crumbs announced the closing of its stores on July 7, following its shares being delisted from the Nasdaq on July 1.

Crumbs closed Thursday at $0.40, a gain of $0.37.

Posted-In: News Rumors Management Insider Trades M&A Movers





Benzinga’s M&A Chatter for Wednesday July 9, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Wednesday July 9, 2014:

Google Rumored to Have Interest in Deal for Time Warner

The Rumor:
Shares of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) surged higher Tuesday, following a tweet from Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino, that he has been hearing chatter of a potential bid from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). Time Warner shares hit a high of $73.07.

Wall Street Journal reporter Doug MacMillan later tweeted that Time Warner’s CEO said his company was not in talks with Google.

Time Warner shares closed off the highs Wednesday at $72.41, a gain of more than 2%.

Hearing Potential Bid for GameStop

The Rumor:
Shares of GameStop (NYSE: GME) spiked higher Wednesday, on renewed unconfirmed market chatter of a potential bid from an unnamed suitor. Chatter had surfaced on June 22 that GameStop had hired an advisor to help it to review strategic alternatives.

A spokesperson for GameStop was unavailable for comment.

GameStop shares closed Wednesday at $41.79, a gain of $0.15.

AbbVie Forced to Retract Comments Regarding Shire Takeover Attempt

The Withdrawn Comments:
AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) CEO Richard Gonzalez was forced to withdraw comments he made regarding shareholder support for his company’s bid for Shire (NASDAQ: SHPG). The comments were a violation of UK Takeover Panel rules, as the support was not in writing.

AbbVie confirmed today, it had not received commitments of support in writing.

Shire closed Wednesday at $235.08, a gain of almost 1%, while AbbVie lost more than 1% to close at $55.01.

Shareholders Urge Allergan to Make Acquisitions

The CEO Comments:
Allergan (NYSE: AGN) shareholders are encouraging the company to make a large acquisition in order to fight off a $53 billion hostile takeover bid from Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX) and investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, according to a report from Financial Times. Allergan CEO David Pyott, said his company should act quickly in making an acquisition, based on comments from shareholders.

Allergan’s board rejected Valeant’s latest bid of $53 billion in cash and Valeant shares on June 23.

Allergan closed Wednesday at $165.20, a loss of $0.87, while Valeant lost 1% to close at $120.94.

Posted-In: News Hedge Funds Rumors Movers & Shakers Management Insider Trades Movers General





Arena Pharmaceutical Shares Dive On News CEO Sold 40% Of His Shares

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ARNA
Benzinga's Top #PreMarket Losers
Markets Marginally Lower Ahead Of Earnings Season

Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) shares plunged Monday on news that its chief executive Jack Lief sold nearly 40 percent of his holdings in the company.

Lief sold 223,525 shares on July 1 at $5.85 per share. The transaction was an "automatic sell" apparently triggered by a declining share price.

While unusual, the transaction isn't unique among Arena's insider deals. Dominick Behan sold 200,000 shares at $6.30 per share in October, according to filings.

"Lief dumping 40% of his Arena shares all at once when the stock is hitting new lows isn't exactly confidence inspiring," wrote TheStreet columnist Adam Feuerstein.

Feuerstein said the transaction is the death knell of intermittent rumors that Eisai Co. (OTC: ESALY) will acquire Arena.

After opening sharply lower Monday, Arena traded recently at $5.33, down 8.73 percent.

Posted-In: News Insider Trades Movers





American Apparel, Phillips 66 And Others Insiders Have Been Buying

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AAP
O'Reilly Automotive Tops Q2 Earnings on Operational Merit
Worst Performing Industries For July 22, 2014

American Apparel, Consolidated Edison and Phillips 66 are among the companies that have seen insider buying recently. Insiders may sell shares for any number of reasons, but conventional wisdom says that insiders really only buy shares of a company for one reason — they believe the stock price will rise and they want to profit from it.

Pullbacks and sell-offs provide a perfect opportunity for investors who have faith in a company to snap up shares.

Accelerate Diagnostics

Recently, one director and one beneficial owner have picked up more than 38,000 Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ: AXDX) shares combined for a total price of almost $1 million. Note that the same beneficial owner also bought $5 million worth of shares back in May.

This Arizona-based medical research company has a market cap of a little over $1 billion and a return on equity that is in the red. Short interest is more than 10 percent of the total float. Shares have pulled back more than 12 percent from a recent 52-week high. Over the past six months, the stock has outperformed the S&P 500.

American Apparel

Ousted CEO Dov Charney recently scooped up more than 27.3 million shares of American Apparel (NYSE: AAP) as part of his attempt to get the company back. That was worth more than $19.5 million. Hedge fund Standard General is helping Charney, and also bought about 1.5 million shares since.

The market cap is about $9.8 billion. The return on equity is more than 100 percent, but the operating margin is in the red. The share price has swung wildly since Charney's ouster, and over the past six months, the stock has underperformed the likes of Abercrombie & Fitch and Urban Outfitters.

See also: American Apparel Imperiled By Lender's Repayment Demand

Consolidated Edison

A number of executives,…
continue reading





Benzinga’s Weekend M&A Chatter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday June 27 through Sunday June 29, 2014:

Tencent Acquires Approximately 20% Stake in 58.com for $736M

The Deal:
58.com (NYSE: WUBA) and Tencent Holdings (OTC: TCEHY) announced Friday that Tencent has agreed to invest $736 million in exchange for approximately 19.9% equity interest in 58.com. Under the agreement, Tencent is purchasing 36.805M Class A and B ordinary shares at $20 per share, or $40 per ADS. 58.com will use part of the proceeds from this transaction to buyback 27,603 million shares from existing pre-IPO shareholders.

58.com closed Friday at $54.90, a gain of 5%.

Rackspace Shares Fall on Reported Lack of Takeover Interest

The Rumor:
Shares of Rackspace (NYSE: RAX) fell sharply Friday, on a report from Deal Reporter that there has been a lack of interest from potential buyers for the web hosting company, due to cash flow issues. Rackspace has been the subject of frequent takeover chatter, with IBM (NYSE: IBM) being often mentioned as a potential suitor.

Rackspace closed Friday at $33.63, a loss of more than 7%.

Pershing Square Settles Poison Pill Litigation

The Settlement:
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management announced Friday, it has reached a settlement with Allergan (NYSE: AGN), resolving the previously announced poison pill litigation before the Delaware Court of Chancery.

The settlement provides that Pershing Square’s solicitation and receipt of revocable proxies to call a special meeting of shareholders of Allergan will not trigger the poison pill, and paves the way for Pershing Square to begin actively soliciting proxies to call the special meeting.

Allergan has rejected Valent Pharmaceutical’s takeover bids, the current offer being $53 billion in cash and Valeant shares. The rejections have prompted Ackman and Valeant to present the offer directly to Allergan shareholders.

Allergan closed Friday at $173.95, a gain of 2%, while Valeant closed at $128.85, a gain of almost 2%.

Posted-In: News Hedge Funds Rumors Movers & Shakers Management Insider Trades M&A General





3 Reasons Video Game Sales Will Decline In 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Domestic video game sales increased in May and June, but the upward trend could come to an end in 2019.

Eva Hunyadi, a research analyst at Juniper Research, recently authored a report about the future of video games. While Hunyadi is optimistic about present-day sales, she is concerned about what will happen as the new consoles — PlayStation 4, Xbox One and Wii U — begin to age.

"The lifetime unit sales of all three next-generation home consoles, which we gathered from individual company data, shows that the PS4 has sold significantly more than the other two devices," Hunyadi told Benzinga.

Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia, meanwhile, predicted that the industry will continue to grow in 2015. "I think 2015 is setting up to be a nice double-digit software growth year for the video game industry," Bhatia said in an interview with Benzinga. "That's why all these stocks have been doing well for quite some time."

Related Link: China's Video Game Approval Could Be Worth Billions To Sony, Microsoft And Nintendo

All Things Must Pass

All good things must come to an end, however. Juniper Research believes that while global revenues (from PC and console games) will reach $46.5 billion in 2014, revenues will decline to $41 billion by 2019.

"If you look at just the numbers, you can see that Wii U has sold more than Xbox One," said Hunyadi. "But if you actually put that number into perspective, you can get a very different picture because Nintendo's Wii U had already been on the market for a year when Microsoft released the Xbox."

"Microsoft managed to generate over half of the unit sales of Nintendo's within a significantly shorter time frame," he continued. "So I think the eighth generation, so far, is doing good — especially Sony. But I don't see right now what would reverse the trend of consoles, PCs and handhelds declining in general."

Lengthy Lifecycles

Hunyadi said that, as the hardware lifecycle progresses, "sales will go down." This is a…
continue reading





Report: IBM Rejects Offer For Chip Operations

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related IBM
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Can the iRally Endure? (Fox Business)

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) rejected an offer for part of its semiconductor manufacturing operations, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg news service.

An offer from Globalfoundries, owned by government of Abu Dhabi and based in California, was refused by IBM because it was too low, Bloomberg said.

Similar rumors were circulated June 15 when a union seeking to represent IBM workers in New York claimed that IBM's Vice President of Microelectronics had told managers the deal had collapsed.

Bloomberg said Globalfoundries wanted to acquire IBM's engineers and intellectual property, and places no value on its manufacturing plants, which it believes are outdated.

IBM said recently it will participate in a plan by New York State to form a chip development consortium to include General Electric, Lockheed Martin, Endicott Interconnect and several universities. The state will spend $135 million, while companies will spend $365 million over five years on the project.

IBM didn't describe its potential role in the consortium.

IBM traded recently at $194.31, down 0.48 percent.

Posted-In: News Rumors





Will Zillow And Trulia Unleash ‘Godzulia?’ Analysts Weigh In

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Z
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Thursday July 24, 2014
Markets Steady Despite Mixed Economic Data

Prospects for Trulia (NYSE: TRLA) being acquired by Zillow (NASDAQ: Z) are believable but talks, if any, might fall apart, analysts said Friday.

Zillow could pay $2 billion for Trulia's 36.92 million shares outstanding, and an agreement may be unveiled next week, according to a report Thursday from Bloomberg news service, which cited unnamed sources.

"Neither company has denied it," Deutsche Bank's Lloyd Walmsley said in a note Friday. Further raising Walmsley's suspicion, "Neither company has announced an earnings date. A year ago we had earnings dates for the second quarter by July 16."

Related Link: Trulia Up 30%; Zillow Rumored Near Making $2 Billion Bid

Zillow might pay $54 to $66 per share for Trulia, if a deal gets struck according to Walmsley, who headlined his note "Godzulia?"

But Walmsley warned that even if talks are underway, they could be derailed by Zillow founders' Rich Barton and Lloyd Frink super-voting shares, personality conflicts valuation conflicts, regulatory hurdles, backlash from real estate agents "and more."

Given the strong recent growth of both companies, "we were surprised at the timing," J.P. Morgan's Ronald Josey said in a note Friday.

Josey was "originally dubious on any deal," but now sees it as more likely. "We see it as Zillow playing offense," Josey said in a note maintaining an Outperform rating and $150 target on Zillow

Zillow traded recently at $155.12, up 6.4 percent; Trulia was trading at $55.45, up 3.1 percent.

Posted-In: Deutsche Bank J.P. Morgan Lloyd WalmsleyAnalyst Color News Rumors Analyst Ratings Movers





Gartman Sees Alcoa Shares Hitting $40; CEO Sells At $16

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AA
Can the Uptrend Continue for Alcoa (AA)? – Tale of the Tape
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Whitman Named Chairman of HP's Board (Fox Business)

Aluminum stocks are the "best buy out there," television stock maven Dennis Gartman said on CNBC Wednesday.

Gartman's thesis is that increasingly strict fuel efficiency rules will boost demand for aluminum.

Under U.S. rules issued two years ago, the average fuel economy of new cars is set to rise to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, up from a current 29 miles per gallon.

"The easiest way to meet EPA requirements for mileage is to make the automobiles and trucks lighter, and aluminum does that," Gartman said. "And everybody's going to be selling a lot of automobiles for the Chinese."

But shares in Alcoa (NYSE: AA) sagged two percent Friday, despite a lack of news.

It was reported this week that Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld recently sold $12.9 million worth of Alcoa shares for an average of $16.08 each.

"It implies that Kleinfeld now sees Alcoa shares fairly valued," Ian Dogan InsiderMonkey told Barron's Monday. "We think the stock is slightly overvalued at these levels."

Shares in the metal-making giant are up nearly 57 percent year to date and Gartman said, "everybody laughed at me nine months ago when I started buying it."

Gartman thinks the shares will "go to $40."

Alcoa traded Friday at $16.68, down 1.8 percent.

Posted-In: Dennis GartmanAnalyst Color CNBC News Rumors Management Analyst Ratings Media





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Who's Winning the War in Ukraine? Answer May Shock You!

Courtesy of Mish.

Here's the question, not of the day, but of the month: Who's Winning the War in Ukraine?

That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't.

That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" It also depends on the definition of "war". And it also depends on the definition of "win". And finally it depends on which media source you believe.

Military Aspect

From a military aspect, I have seen reports from both sides. The Western media portrays Ukraine on the march with the rebels surrounded, and losing ground. Is that accurate reporting?

I will let you be the judge. Please consider this video released on Friday.



The caption reads "??? ??? ???????? ?? 72-? ??????? ??? 2...



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Zero Hedge

If Americans Knew What Was Happening In Israel ...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

If my fellow Americans understood the history of Israel and Palestine, their views would change overnight … and they would demand that Israel no longer be given unconditional support and blank checks to do whatever they want:

  • ...


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Insider Scoop

Deckers Outdoor Conference Call Highlights

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DECK Deckers Trends Up On FQ2 Beat; Analysts Upgrade, Boost Targets Benzinga's Top Upgrades Ex-KPMG Partner Sentenced for Insider Trading (Fox Business)

Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK) reported its first-quarter earnings on Thursday. Shares of the company are up more than six percent...



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Chart School

5 Things To Ponder: Gates & Houses

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

"The world is all gates, all opportunities, strings of tension waiting to be struck." - Ralph Waldo Emerson

This past week was inundated with a variety of financial and geopolitical events that had me scrambling to say abreast of the issues. However, there was one issue in particular that was obscured by the news flow of MH-17 and Israel, a ruling by the S.E.C. to put "gates" on mutual fund redemptions.

"This past Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission voted 3-2 to require institutional money market mutual funds to adopt a floating net asset value. The SEC also imposed liquidity fees and redemption gates, changes that muni market groups have said will hurt the market as well as state and loc...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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