Author Archive for Market Montage

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Singapore Stock Losses Set to Rival Greece in 2015 (Bloomberg)

Singapores stocks are set for a 15 percent tumble this year, putting them in the same league as Greece. Baring Asset Management Ltd. and UBS Group AG say shares need to get even cheaper before theyre prepared to buy.

Toshiba shares crashed 12% after warning of a record loss (Business Insider)

Shares in Toshiba, the Japanese conglomerate, crashed more than 12% after the firm said it expects to make a record 550 billion yen ($4.5 billion) loss.

Toshiba 22 Dec

How Aldi Stole Christmas: Tesco CEO Lewis Can't Halt Stock Slide (Bloomberg)

Tesco Plc Chief Executive Officer Dave Lewis is ending his first full year at the helm with the stock at an 18-year low, and he’s facing a Christmas period that won’t deliver any respite.

Valeant Deal With Walgreens Has Unusual Twist (Wall Street Journal)

Buried in the details of a new 20-year distribution agreement between Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is a $150 million financial hit to Valeant that underscores the unusual nature of the deal.

The amount reflects the one-time revenue impact on Valeant of the drug-distribution pact, according to a Valeant presentation last week to analysts and investors.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York December 17, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson     Bumpy year drags U.S. share listings back to 2009 levels (Business Insider)

New share listings in the United States has their worst year since 2009, Thomson Reuters data showed on Tuesday, as a number of deals were pulled or priced below their initial range.

Global listings were down 26 percent compared with 2014, at $185.9 billion. The worst hit market was the United States, which has booked $28.7 billion in initial public offerings activity so far this year, down 48 percent on 2014.

Dollar treads water, but traders wary of disruption by oil prices (Market Watch)

continue reading





Vertical Ascent

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

These rallies are becoming familiar.  In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up,  early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak).  It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE.  So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S&P 500 year over year deserves even more multiple expansion.   2013 has not been the year of significant earnings growth – it has been nearly all about multiple expansion.

Obviously with this sort of move we are not even sniffing the 10 day moving average.

Speaking of vertical, we are seeing the same signals in margin debt as in 1999 and 2007.  Doesn’t mean it will matter anytime soon as the Fed disengaged after Y2K and wasn’t at all involved like this in 2007, so we are in uncharted territory but people are certainly buying in – with leverage.

Margin levels, or the amount borrowed to purchase securities, climbed to a new record of $401 billion in September, according to NYSE Euronext data released this week. The monthly increase of 4.78 percent was also the largest gain since January. Prior to the financial crisis, debt margins peaked at $381 billion in July, 2007, three months before the S&P 500 hit an all-time high.

We had some high profile earnings moves last week such as Whirpool, Amazon, Microsoft,  and Flowserve as shorts are mostly getting roasted on earnings.  This week we’ll see Apple and Facebook – two of the most popular names in the market.

Economic reports have been completely ignored as there is not going to be any movement on the Federal Reserve with the 6.5% target and Yellen headed our way, and the holidays in between.  So last week’s data points didn’t move the markets at all.  So no reason to…
continue reading





Looks Familiar

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

We are in the midst of yet another V shaped rally and at this point there is no more surprise.  It has become the rule…the familiar.   This is episode #3 of the second half of 2013; and one can argue this is the most “vertical” of all 3.  I do not now show the 5 day moving average on the chart below but the index is as far above it as any time in 2013.  The only thing close was 9/18 which was the immediate afternoon sugar high from the “no taper” decision by the Fed.

Ironically these fools in D.C. have created an environment where the Fed won’t….ever….cut back QE.   After weeks of shutdown and wrangling all they could do was kick the can til January 2014?  So not only won’t the Fed even do a minor tightening now due to the economic impact of the govt shutdown and uncertainty, they also will have the same reasons for the first quarter (or two) of 2014.  And whose to say the next kick the can won’t be 6 months or something short enough that simply constantly created the uncertainty that the Fed wants to see recede.

Google provided a massive halo effect for all tech stocks Friday, and completely overwhelmed any bad feelings of the massive $1B revenue miss by IBM earlier in the week.  With QE almost permanently on hold and the last major issue of the year (D.C.) now off the table some now are calling for a 1999 melt up in the fourth quarter.

We have a heavy slate of earning reports this week and next – we’ll see if the hear no evil, see no evil but expand the multiple of the market (already up 2.5 this year alone) continues.  As for economic data due to the government shutdown some old reports should be resurfacing soon, including September’s employment data which is now set for release Tuesday.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Short Term Extension of Debt Ceiling Talk Pushes Futures

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

The politicians can not agree on anything other than kicking the can down the road.  Word surfaced late yesterday the 2 parties may “agree” to kick the can down the road – solving nothing other than avoiding the debt ceiling limit as they work towards a broader “comprehensive” solution.  This is the exact same thing they have been saying the past half decade, and each time they try to work on something comprehensive the only thing that comes out of it, is more can kicking.  But that could be enough for markets.  Futures are jumping on the development and we always have to ask in the QE market is this sort of gap up is day 1 of a “V shaped” move.  It has now become common.  There is now a world of resistance to work through on the charts but the QE V shaped rallies never worry about resistance and just seem to slice through it as if it is no there.  We’ll know in a week or so if this is another one.

Note the last 2 times the S&P 500 broke a downtrend it led to a fast supercharged rally – but an eventual selloff.  At this point simply to break the current downtrend, the index would net to get over S&P 1680.  Also note the 50 day moving average is sloping downward for the first time in a long time; in fact the first time since late 2012.  In normal markets that is usually a cautionary signal but in a QE world these signals have not been as helpful.

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Janet Yellen – To No One’s Surprise – Nominated by Obama for Fed Head

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Once Larry Summers “exited” (i.e. was rejected) as a candidate, all eyes turned back to what was seen earlier as the obvious choice – Janet Yellen.  Yesterday after the close President Obama did what everyone expected and nominated her for the head job at the Federal Reserve.  Many consider her an uber dove… futures initially spiked on the news but not as much as one would expect, mostly because this was a surprise to no one.  But still considering the damage in the markets of late, you’d think it would have provided some more juice.  Perhaps the algos go to sleep after 4 PM.   Here are some blurbs from the WSJ, and Reuters.

  • The nomination will put Yellen on course to be the first woman to lead the institution in its 100-year history. The advocate for aggressive action to stimulate U.S. economic growth through low interest rates and large-scale bond purchases would replace Ben Bernanke, whose second term as Fed chairman expires on January 31.
  • If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, which is expected to endorse her, she would provide continuity with the policies the Fed has established under Bernanke. Analysts say she would move cautiously in reining in policies in place to shore up the world’s largest economy.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Entire September Rally Now at Risk, Fibonacci Says

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

With the 61.8% retracement of the September rally now broken, the risk now opens for a complete retracement of the entire September rally which was topped off by the “no QE tapering” by Bernanke now nearly 3 weeks ago.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Horrid Day for Momentum Stocks

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Until this week, a select group of about 40 stocks has held up quite well considering the 3% correction.   Today however we are seeing major selling in these names, even as the indexes don’t look “that bad”.  (NASDAQ is underperforming significantly)  Some samples of the damage as follows:

  • Yelp -6.8%
  • LinkedIn -5.9%
  • Sina -5.3%
  • Baidu -4.5%
  • Facebook -4.1%
  • Yahoo -3.7%

While these all are related to the internet we are seeing the same damage in other “hot” sectors such solar stocks and just about any biotech, which has been the market’s main winning group of 2013.  It is one of those days the indexes are not telling the tale because things like utilities are rallying.

Volatility has obviously increased substantially…

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Normal Song & Dance Around Political Sausage Making

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Friday markets rallied sharply on no real news – just the assumption / hope / fear by shorts, that a resolution would happen over the weekend and based on past precedent markets would rip higher with market bears punched in the nose.  This is one of those binary outcomes: no resolution = good chance those gains disappear, resolution = a V shape move up.  Today we are seeing the latter.

Looking at the index charts, we continue to see a wide divergence between NASDAQ and S&P 500.  With the S&P 500 this downward channel continues; the rally Friday took it to the top of the channel and any positive news would have us break out to the upside of it, which has led to power rallies through 2013.  But without any positive news, we will now just see a continuation of the pattern.  MACD has rolled over bearish and we see the 61.8% retracement of the September rally is in play.

The NASDAQ looks like a completely different animal.   There has only been a 38.2% retracement at worst and even that just barely for a session.  MACD is just now beginning to see a bearish crossover but if it reverses in a day or two it can be rendered meaningless.

Areas like biotech are really helping the NASDAQ.

So overall we know the story – there is more of a drop dead date nearer to the debt ceiling limit mid October.  For now it appears politicians are content to make sausage until then.

Last Friday we did not get the normal employment data and this week any government data will continue to be delayed.  The main items on the agenda will be the FOMC meeting minutes (“thankfully” the Fed will never shut down) Wednesday, and retail sales Friday – expectations for unchanged and +0.4% ex autos.

Earnings season also begins to hit the radar, although not in earnest until next week.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Stuck in Purgatory

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

The markets remain stuck here as they await some form of resolution to this federal budget + debt ceiling situation(s).  Interestingly each of the 3 sessions this week we have seen a spike into the close as investors assume a deal is imminent each night, but thus far not so much.  It appears tomorrow’s employment data will also be delayed due to the shutdown, but the ADP data yesterday was not of the nature that would indicate any change coming from the Fed anytime soon.

There still remain a group of stocks acting well in this market, but the indexes sure are interesting – we are getting 2 different stories on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.   Of course eventually they will begin to move more in concert but right now the biotech/tech heavy NASDAQ is acting fine while the S&P 500 is in more of a corrective state.  Interestingly the Russell 2000 is acting like the NASDAQ while the DJIA is acting even worse than the S&P 500.  So a very selective market.

The S&P 500 broke through the 50 day intraday Monday before recovering it, and that has been the floor the past 2 sessions.  MACD has crossed over bearish but this can sometimes quickly reverse itself.  Meanwhile the NASDAQ on Monday only fell to its 20 day moving average and aside from 1 session has bounced repeatedly off its 10 day moving average during this correction.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





ISM Manufacturing at 56.2 v Estimate of 55 and Previous 55.7

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Positive news from the ISM Manufacturing index at 56.2 vs 55 – not much effect on the market as the government overhang remains the focus.   New orders were not very good however in this report; employment did look good.  Full report here.

 

“The PMI™ registered 56.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from August’s reading of 55.7 percent. September’s PMI™ reading is the highest of the year, leading to an average PMI™ reading of 55.8 percent for the third quarter. The New Orders Index decreased in September by 2.7 percentage points to 60.5 percent, and the Production Index increased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 53.3 percent, which is the highest reading for the year. Comments from the panel are generally positive and optimistic about increasing demand and improving business conditions.”

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
  • “Global sales generally trending moderately higher.” (Textile Mills)
  • “Slight increase in demand. Forecast looks better. 4Q looking better than 3Q — should begin to see demand increase in October/November.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Raw materials shortages continue. General trends are up, which enhances shortage issues.” (Wood Products)
  • “Overall business is flat to down across the board.” (Machinery)
  • “Housing continues to improve, resulting in improved conditions for our industry.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Rising costs of China labor has us re-evaluating our current position in that country.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Steady increase in work this month.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Overall business is picking up.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Outlook remains strong with housing market and customer orders.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Labor rates along the Gulf Coast are rising with the increased activity of construction and maintenance projects.” (Chemical Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
SEPTEMBER 2013

Index

Series
Index
Sep
Series
Index
Aug
Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate
of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
PMI™ 56.2 55.7 +0.5 Growing Faster 4
New Orders 60.5 63.2 -2.7


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Meditation May Be the Key to Becoming a Better Investor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Every once in a while I write about topics that seemingly have nothing to do with investing, but for those that are able to connect the dots, they will actually find great value in these seemingly unrelated topics to wealth building and preservation strategies. As it is the weekend, I'm releasing an article that we originally posted on our website  about the topic of meditation and investing on 19 August 2016. Again, to first read our articles when we release them, subscribe to our article fee...



more from Tyler

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Iron Ore Market Seen Collapsing Below Last Year’s Nadir: Chart (Bloomberg)

The iron ore market is about to swoon, according to Westpac Banking Corp., which forecasts benchmark prices may sink below last year’s nadir of $38.30 a metric ton. 

Fear! M1 Money Multiplier Remains Below 1.0 Since End Of Great Recession (And Financial Crisis) (Confounded Interest)

The M1 Money Multiplier is the ratio of M1* to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and it has been below 1.0 since June 2...



more from Paul

Phil's Favorites

One Million Market Beaters

Wow. If you're planning to beat the market by being an exceptional stock picker, this article is a MUST READ.

One Million Market Beaters

Courtesy of Michael Batnick, The Irrelevant Investor

  • Uncertainty remains, but Florida is in the cross hairs.
  • What to expect today after tornado outbreak.
  • Why we’re watching Gaston closely now.

These headlines were pulled from a few articles today at weather.com. You could seamlessly replace Florida, tornado, and Gaston with a stock be...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

IMF knew the euro had serious flaws, Sacrificed Greece

By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.

BY JOHN MAULDIN

There’s a new chapter in the ongoing tale of IMF incompetence. Take a look at this UK Telegraph headline that recently caught my eye.

The love affair was no surprise. Nor was the fact that the IMF had taken part in the immolation of Greece. No, the surprise was that the IMF would publicly disclose the extent of incompetence and massive rule breaking that had taken place.

The Ambrose Evans-Pritchard byline told me this would be a good story. Here’s his lead:

The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleade...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Loss Follows the Jackson Hole Drama

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

This morning's Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range volatility of today's session was at the 70th percentile of the 165 market days of 2016 and the widest in 37 sessions. The S&P 500 opened higher, rallied with the opening of her speech, and then sold off sharply during with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer's suggestion that a couple of rate hikes this year were possible. The index bounced back later in the afternoon to its -0.16% Friday close. The index is down 0.68% for the week.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.62%, up four basis points from the previous close.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

...

more from Chart School

Kimble Charting Solutions

Basic Materials attempting breakout says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Basic Materials stocks can often times give a decent snap shot of how an economy is doing from a growth or lack of perspective. Below looks at Basic Materials ETF (IYM) over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

IYM remains inside of an upward sloping mult-year rising channel (1), since 2009. It hit the bottom of this channel earlier this year and has bounce off support. Currently IYM is testing f...



more from Kimble C.S.

Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



more from Biotech

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 22nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



more from M.T.M.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>