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Financial Markets and Economy

Singapore Stock Losses Set to Rival Greece in 2015 (Bloomberg)

Singapores stocks are set for a 15 percent tumble this year, putting them in the same league as Greece. Baring Asset Management Ltd. and UBS Group AG say shares need to get even cheaper before theyre prepared to buy.

Toshiba shares crashed 12% after warning of a record loss (Business Insider)

Shares in Toshiba, the Japanese conglomerate, crashed more than 12% after the firm said it expects to make a record 550 billion yen ($4.5 billion) loss.

Toshiba 22 Dec

How Aldi Stole Christmas: Tesco CEO Lewis Can't Halt Stock Slide (Bloomberg)

Tesco Plc Chief Executive Officer Dave Lewis is ending his first full year at the helm with the stock at an 18-year low, and he’s facing a Christmas period that won’t deliver any respite.

Valeant Deal With Walgreens Has Unusual Twist (Wall Street Journal)

Buried in the details of a new 20-year distribution agreement between Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is a $150 million financial hit to Valeant that underscores the unusual nature of the deal.

The amount reflects the one-time revenue impact on Valeant of the drug-distribution pact, according to a Valeant presentation last week to analysts and investors.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York December 17, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson     Bumpy year drags U.S. share listings back to 2009 levels (Business Insider)

New share listings in the United States has their worst year since 2009, Thomson Reuters data showed on Tuesday, as a number of deals were pulled or priced below their initial range.

Global listings were down 26 percent compared with 2014, at $185.9 billion. The worst hit market was the United States, which has booked $28.7 billion in initial public offerings activity so far this year, down 48 percent on 2014.

Dollar treads water, but traders wary of disruption by oil prices (Market Watch)

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Vertical Ascent

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

These rallies are becoming familiar.  In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up,  early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak).  It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE.  So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S&P 500 year over year deserves even more multiple expansion.   2013 has not been the year of significant earnings growth – it has been nearly all about multiple expansion.

Obviously with this sort of move we are not even sniffing the 10 day moving average.

Speaking of vertical, we are seeing the same signals in margin debt as in 1999 and 2007.  Doesn’t mean it will matter anytime soon as the Fed disengaged after Y2K and wasn’t at all involved like this in 2007, so we are in uncharted territory but people are certainly buying in – with leverage.

Margin levels, or the amount borrowed to purchase securities, climbed to a new record of $401 billion in September, according to NYSE Euronext data released this week. The monthly increase of 4.78 percent was also the largest gain since January. Prior to the financial crisis, debt margins peaked at $381 billion in July, 2007, three months before the S&P 500 hit an all-time high.

We had some high profile earnings moves last week such as Whirpool, Amazon, Microsoft,  and Flowserve as shorts are mostly getting roasted on earnings.  This week we’ll see Apple and Facebook – two of the most popular names in the market.

Economic reports have been completely ignored as there is not going to be any movement on the Federal Reserve with the 6.5% target and Yellen headed our way, and the holidays in between.  So last week’s data points didn’t move the markets at all.  So no reason to…
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Looks Familiar

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

We are in the midst of yet another V shaped rally and at this point there is no more surprise.  It has become the rule…the familiar.   This is episode #3 of the second half of 2013; and one can argue this is the most “vertical” of all 3.  I do not now show the 5 day moving average on the chart below but the index is as far above it as any time in 2013.  The only thing close was 9/18 which was the immediate afternoon sugar high from the “no taper” decision by the Fed.

Ironically these fools in D.C. have created an environment where the Fed won’t….ever….cut back QE.   After weeks of shutdown and wrangling all they could do was kick the can til January 2014?  So not only won’t the Fed even do a minor tightening now due to the economic impact of the govt shutdown and uncertainty, they also will have the same reasons for the first quarter (or two) of 2014.  And whose to say the next kick the can won’t be 6 months or something short enough that simply constantly created the uncertainty that the Fed wants to see recede.

Google provided a massive halo effect for all tech stocks Friday, and completely overwhelmed any bad feelings of the massive $1B revenue miss by IBM earlier in the week.  With QE almost permanently on hold and the last major issue of the year (D.C.) now off the table some now are calling for a 1999 melt up in the fourth quarter.

We have a heavy slate of earning reports this week and next – we’ll see if the hear no evil, see no evil but expand the multiple of the market (already up 2.5 this year alone) continues.  As for economic data due to the government shutdown some old reports should be resurfacing soon, including September’s employment data which is now set for release Tuesday.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Short Term Extension of Debt Ceiling Talk Pushes Futures

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

The politicians can not agree on anything other than kicking the can down the road.  Word surfaced late yesterday the 2 parties may “agree” to kick the can down the road – solving nothing other than avoiding the debt ceiling limit as they work towards a broader “comprehensive” solution.  This is the exact same thing they have been saying the past half decade, and each time they try to work on something comprehensive the only thing that comes out of it, is more can kicking.  But that could be enough for markets.  Futures are jumping on the development and we always have to ask in the QE market is this sort of gap up is day 1 of a “V shaped” move.  It has now become common.  There is now a world of resistance to work through on the charts but the QE V shaped rallies never worry about resistance and just seem to slice through it as if it is no there.  We’ll know in a week or so if this is another one.

Note the last 2 times the S&P 500 broke a downtrend it led to a fast supercharged rally – but an eventual selloff.  At this point simply to break the current downtrend, the index would net to get over S&P 1680.  Also note the 50 day moving average is sloping downward for the first time in a long time; in fact the first time since late 2012.  In normal markets that is usually a cautionary signal but in a QE world these signals have not been as helpful.

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Janet Yellen – To No One’s Surprise – Nominated by Obama for Fed Head

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Once Larry Summers “exited” (i.e. was rejected) as a candidate, all eyes turned back to what was seen earlier as the obvious choice – Janet Yellen.  Yesterday after the close President Obama did what everyone expected and nominated her for the head job at the Federal Reserve.  Many consider her an uber dove… futures initially spiked on the news but not as much as one would expect, mostly because this was a surprise to no one.  But still considering the damage in the markets of late, you’d think it would have provided some more juice.  Perhaps the algos go to sleep after 4 PM.   Here are some blurbs from the WSJ, and Reuters.

  • The nomination will put Yellen on course to be the first woman to lead the institution in its 100-year history. The advocate for aggressive action to stimulate U.S. economic growth through low interest rates and large-scale bond purchases would replace Ben Bernanke, whose second term as Fed chairman expires on January 31.
  • If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, which is expected to endorse her, she would provide continuity with the policies the Fed has established under Bernanke. Analysts say she would move cautiously in reining in policies in place to shore up the world’s largest economy.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Entire September Rally Now at Risk, Fibonacci Says

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

With the 61.8% retracement of the September rally now broken, the risk now opens for a complete retracement of the entire September rally which was topped off by the “no QE tapering” by Bernanke now nearly 3 weeks ago.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Horrid Day for Momentum Stocks

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Until this week, a select group of about 40 stocks has held up quite well considering the 3% correction.   Today however we are seeing major selling in these names, even as the indexes don’t look “that bad”.  (NASDAQ is underperforming significantly)  Some samples of the damage as follows:

  • Yelp -6.8%
  • LinkedIn -5.9%
  • Sina -5.3%
  • Baidu -4.5%
  • Facebook -4.1%
  • Yahoo -3.7%

While these all are related to the internet we are seeing the same damage in other “hot” sectors such solar stocks and just about any biotech, which has been the market’s main winning group of 2013.  It is one of those days the indexes are not telling the tale because things like utilities are rallying.

Volatility has obviously increased substantially…

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Normal Song & Dance Around Political Sausage Making

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Friday markets rallied sharply on no real news – just the assumption / hope / fear by shorts, that a resolution would happen over the weekend and based on past precedent markets would rip higher with market bears punched in the nose.  This is one of those binary outcomes: no resolution = good chance those gains disappear, resolution = a V shape move up.  Today we are seeing the latter.

Looking at the index charts, we continue to see a wide divergence between NASDAQ and S&P 500.  With the S&P 500 this downward channel continues; the rally Friday took it to the top of the channel and any positive news would have us break out to the upside of it, which has led to power rallies through 2013.  But without any positive news, we will now just see a continuation of the pattern.  MACD has rolled over bearish and we see the 61.8% retracement of the September rally is in play.

The NASDAQ looks like a completely different animal.   There has only been a 38.2% retracement at worst and even that just barely for a session.  MACD is just now beginning to see a bearish crossover but if it reverses in a day or two it can be rendered meaningless.

Areas like biotech are really helping the NASDAQ.

So overall we know the story – there is more of a drop dead date nearer to the debt ceiling limit mid October.  For now it appears politicians are content to make sausage until then.

Last Friday we did not get the normal employment data and this week any government data will continue to be delayed.  The main items on the agenda will be the FOMC meeting minutes (“thankfully” the Fed will never shut down) Wednesday, and retail sales Friday – expectations for unchanged and +0.4% ex autos.

Earnings season also begins to hit the radar, although not in earnest until next week.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Stuck in Purgatory

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

The markets remain stuck here as they await some form of resolution to this federal budget + debt ceiling situation(s).  Interestingly each of the 3 sessions this week we have seen a spike into the close as investors assume a deal is imminent each night, but thus far not so much.  It appears tomorrow’s employment data will also be delayed due to the shutdown, but the ADP data yesterday was not of the nature that would indicate any change coming from the Fed anytime soon.

There still remain a group of stocks acting well in this market, but the indexes sure are interesting – we are getting 2 different stories on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.   Of course eventually they will begin to move more in concert but right now the biotech/tech heavy NASDAQ is acting fine while the S&P 500 is in more of a corrective state.  Interestingly the Russell 2000 is acting like the NASDAQ while the DJIA is acting even worse than the S&P 500.  So a very selective market.

The S&P 500 broke through the 50 day intraday Monday before recovering it, and that has been the floor the past 2 sessions.  MACD has crossed over bearish but this can sometimes quickly reverse itself.  Meanwhile the NASDAQ on Monday only fell to its 20 day moving average and aside from 1 session has bounced repeatedly off its 10 day moving average during this correction.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





ISM Manufacturing at 56.2 v Estimate of 55 and Previous 55.7

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Positive news from the ISM Manufacturing index at 56.2 vs 55 – not much effect on the market as the government overhang remains the focus.   New orders were not very good however in this report; employment did look good.  Full report here.

 

“The PMI™ registered 56.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from August’s reading of 55.7 percent. September’s PMI™ reading is the highest of the year, leading to an average PMI™ reading of 55.8 percent for the third quarter. The New Orders Index decreased in September by 2.7 percentage points to 60.5 percent, and the Production Index increased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 53.3 percent, which is the highest reading for the year. Comments from the panel are generally positive and optimistic about increasing demand and improving business conditions.”

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
  • “Global sales generally trending moderately higher.” (Textile Mills)
  • “Slight increase in demand. Forecast looks better. 4Q looking better than 3Q — should begin to see demand increase in October/November.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Raw materials shortages continue. General trends are up, which enhances shortage issues.” (Wood Products)
  • “Overall business is flat to down across the board.” (Machinery)
  • “Housing continues to improve, resulting in improved conditions for our industry.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Rising costs of China labor has us re-evaluating our current position in that country.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Steady increase in work this month.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Overall business is picking up.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Outlook remains strong with housing market and customer orders.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Labor rates along the Gulf Coast are rising with the increased activity of construction and maintenance projects.” (Chemical Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
SEPTEMBER 2013

Index

Series
Index
Sep
Series
Index
Aug
Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate
of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
PMI™ 56.2 55.7 +0.5 Growing Faster 4
New Orders 60.5 63.2 -2.7


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Zero Hedge

"I Was Wrong. And I Am Sorry": Bloomberg Apologizes To Black Megachurch For 'Stop And Frisk'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As Michael Bloomberg weighs a bid for the White House next year, the former New York mayor told the congregation at a 'black megachurch' on Sunday that he's sorry for his support of the city's controversial "stop-and-frisk" program which targeted a disproportionate number of blacks and Latinos.

"I was wrong. And I am sorry," Bloomberg said at the Christian Cultural Center in Brooklyn, pandering to the black vote.

In 2013, a federal judge who ...



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Phil's Favorites

Tesla's business strategy is not chaotic - it's brilliant

 

Tesla's business strategy is not chaotic – it's brilliant

Courtesy of Nathan Furr, INSEAD

Few companies have attracted as much praise, derision, scepticism and enthusiasm as Telsa Motors and its founder Elon Musk. Having interviewed Elon Musk and the Tesla leadership as part of my research, one of the questions I’m asked most frequently is: how can you make sense of Tesla’s wild strategies? The latest example is the move to create a “Gigafactory” for car batteries just outside Berlin.

Part of the challenge in understanding Tesla&...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

New York Stock Exchange Double Topping or Sending A Strong Bullish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

A very broad index is testing last year’s highs, as monthly momentum is creating lower highs? Which indicator is more important, price or momentum?

This chart looks at the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSE) on a monthly basis over the past 15-years.

The index peaked in January of 2018, as momentum was the highest since the peak in 2007.

The rally off the lows around Christmas last year, has the index testing the highs of January 2018. While the rally has taken place over the past 12-months, lofty momentum has created a series of lower highs.

Can you believe th...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • UBS raised AbbVie Inc (NYSE: ABBV) price target from $79 to $96. AbbVie shares closed at $88.73 on Monday.
  • JP Morgan lowered the price target for Intelsat SA (NYSE: I) from $22 to $9. Intelsat shares closed at $8.03 on Monday.
  • DA Davidson boosted the price target on Okta Inc (NASDAQ: OKTA) from $131 to $135. Okta closed at $121.15 on Monday.
  • Stifel lifted the price target for Leggett & Platt, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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