Phil's Newsletter

What Now Wednesday – Volatility Returns in Spades!

Now this is what I call trading!  

As you can see from the FactSet chart, we're about 5% below where I called for cashing out our Member Portfolios on December 5th (see "Tempting Tuesday – Stop Buying that Dip and GET OUT!!!").  At that time, I said the market was perhaps 20% overbought and, now that we've had a 5% rally and a 10% drop, I still think we're 5-10% overbought but I will concede 5% to better earnings and good global conditions (so far).  

At the time, our portfolios, after 4 years, were up 200-250% and we didn't want to risk our gains gambling on the holidays – as I expected what happened this week to happen in early January, not early February.  My timing was off but the call was right and we restarted our portfolios on Jan 2nd with 1/3 of what we took off the table and then we deployed less than half of that on new positions.  After getting off to a great start (up about 5%) they are all in the red but yesterday we took advantage of this 10% sell-off to press our longs and take some of our hedging profits off the table. 

We don't play our hedges to negate ALL downside damage – when you do that, you spend so much money on the hedges you can't make any money.  What we use hedges for is to MITIGATE the damage, so we don't lose too much on a dip.  All we need is some quick cash to put back into our long positions while they are low, like this adjustment to IMAX we made in our Options Opportunity Portfolio yesterday:

5 IMAX (IMAX) June $23 puts, now $4 ($2,000) can be rolled to 10 Sept $19 puts at $2.20 ($2,200) and, if we can pick up $4 in strike every 3 months, we'll be at $0 by 2020!  We have 15 Sept $19 ($3.20)/25 ($1.10) bull call spreads at $2.10 ($3,150) and we can roll that down to 20 of the Sept $15 ($5.80)/20 ($2.70) bull call spreads at $3.10 ($6,200).  Our initial outlay was $2,415


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10% Tuesday – Market Correction Hits Our Primary Goal

Wheeeee, what a ride!

That $6,205 profit is just what we made playing the bounce overnight on the Russell as I said to our Members at 10:54pm (yes, we work all night!):

I take it back, picked up 2 long /TF for fun (1,429).

/YM also tempting above the 23,400 line with tight stops below.  Getting back the 1,000-point drop would be $5,000 per contract!

The Dow (/YM) Futures also did well, topping out all the way back at 24,100 with a stop-out at 24,000 for a gain of $3,500 per contract.  Again, this is why we love trading the Futures – this is just our overnight money but it also serves to lock in the gains we made on our hedges and now (6:30 am) we're looking to play for a bounce off 2,600 on /ES, 6,400 on /NQ, 1,450 on /TF and 23,750 on /YM but, if they break down, we'll use the 2,600 line on the S&P for shorting so, either way – we are able to make fine adjustments to our portfolios on the fly.  

Now that we're down 10%, we'll see how 2,550 holds up on the S&P (/ES) but we should get a nice 2% move higher as simply a weak bounce from here so we're targeting 2,600 as a weak bounce and 2,650 as a strong bounce and anything less than that is going to be a sign of further weakness.  We already tested 2,650 at 4am and failed and, as I noted above, we're ready to short at the weak bounce line if it fails or go long if it holds.  Though it was ugly, the sell-off was not unexpected – as I said to our Members:


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Monday Market Momentum – Our Futures Calls Makes $3,000+ Per Contract!

I love to say "I told you so" – it means I got something right.

We did the math for you last Tuesday and predicted the S&P would drop to 2,730, which was a 2.5% pullback from 2,800 and 70 points down on the S&P Futures (/ES) pays $3,500 per contract but, even if you missed that call, we gave you another chance to cover on Friday with our call that the Dow would drop 600 points (at $5 per point, per contract) to 25,400 and we pretty much hit that one on the button for the day for gains of over $3,000 per contract so you are very welcome and what a great way to end our month of free trading tips!  

So yes, we know what the market will do today only we're not going to tell you – that was reserved for our Members this morning in our Live Member Chat Room.  What I can tell you is we're not worried and this is simply the pullback we expected – albeit a bit later than we expected it in January, since it's actually February at this point.  

Keep in mind that we're not Futures traders, we just use the Futures to make quick adjustments to changing market conditions and, of course, for fun during boring trading days.  Friday was aqnything but boring and this morning we'll have some follow-through to the downside but, as long as we hold 25,000 on the Dow – we're probably going to survive and turn around by mid-week.

Meanwhile, we look for bounces and, according to our 5% Rule™ (the same one that told us exactly what to play for last week), 2,640 on the S&P (/ES) should be the worst-case before getting a nice bounce off the fall from 2,860 and that's 220 points so we'd look for a 44-point weak bounce to 2,684 and another 44 points takes us to the strong bounce line at, Ta Da!, 2,728 – close enough to 2,730 that we can call it a strong confirmation of our theory.

If the S&P is going to stay away from 2,600, then we expect there to be good resistance at the strong bounce line (2,730) and, if we don't cross below it, we…
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TGIF – Markets End Wild Week on a Sour Note

Better late than never.

As noted in yesterday's Report, I was on Money Talk Wednesday night (adding a big hedge to that portfolio) and I said my biggest concerns were Japanese Debt and China's Bad Loans and that the market was due for another 2.5% to the downside and yesterday I titled the morning Report: "Thursday Failure – Fed and Trump Fail to Boost the Markets" and I looked a little silly at yesterday's open as we popped back to 2,840 but not so much by the day's end, when we were back to 2,820 and not at all silly now as we're bouncing off the 2,800 line.

As I said yesterday in a post that Seeking Alpha refused to publish because "…there are just too many references to your non-SA subscription service here. (This includes links that go to sign-up pages, which we don't allow authors to use.)", which is ridiculous as the fact that they don't consistently publish my posts FORCES me to provide links back to Philstockworld so people can read what I wrote and, if readers don't sign up, they have no way to access the full post! 

Anyway, where was I?  Oh yes, so yesterday in the (REDACTED FOR SA), I said:

We have plenty of longs and the thing that is most likely to wreck the market this week is disappointing FANG results so that Nasdaq (SQQQ) hedge (see: "Top Trades for Sun, 28 Jan 2018 19:53 – Money Talk Portfolio") or the Dow (DIA) hedge we dicussed in yesterday's report (see "Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition") are good ways to protect yourself into earnings this evening and NFP tomorrow.   

Image result for censorshipFYI, Wednesday's post was rejected by Seeking Alpha because: "There's just too many references to trade ideas that were not available to our Seeking Alpha readers yesterday, Phil." which means obviously I have to refer back to the article on PSW because SA never published it.  REALLY CAN THEY BE THAT STUPID???  I'm sorry, not stupid, I'm sure they were only following orders and SA readers…
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Thursday Failure – Fed and Trump Fail to Boost the Markets

Wheeeeee, what fun!  

I was on TV last night and I predicted we had another 2.5% drop in us as yesterday's gains (such as they were) were entirely due to Boeings 16-point gain for the day, which accounted for 144 points to the Dow's 72-point gain so, on the whole, the Dow should have been down 72, not up 72 if BA hadn't had earnings yesterday.  

Of course we played for bounces into the close with a Russell (/TF) long at 1,575 and and S&P long (/ES) at 2,820 in our Live Member Chat Room at 3:33 and those paid a quick $250 per contract on /TF and $200 per contract on /ES on top of the $200 we made in our Live Trading Webinar at 1pm but by the time I was on TV, at 7pm, the markets had gotten silly again and I called for shorts at Dow (/YM) 26,200, S&P 2,540, Nasdaq (/NQ) 6,985 and Russell 1,582.50 as well as a play on the Dollar (/DX) long at 88.75 – though my actual call there was that 88 would hold.  

We also discussed our Money Talk Portfolio, which gained 74% for the year from picks I made live on the show in a $50,000 portfolio and we added trades on General Electric (GE), Barrick Gold (ABX) as well as a hedge using the Nasdaq Ultra-Short (SQQQ) just in case the FANG stocks mess up earnings tonight.  The Futures shorts are way up this morning (8am) with the Dow down 86 points to 26,050 so up 150 at $5 per point is a gain of $750 per contract on that one and /ES is 2,822 (up $360 per contract), /NQ 6,942 (up $860 per contract) and /TF 1,575 (up $375 per contract) so, of course we're keeping tight stops on those gains in this crazy, crazy market as the Egg McMuffins are paid for and that's all we need from our breakfast trades.  

Today is a heavy data day with Productivity at 8:30, Consumer Comfort and PMI at 9:45 along with ISM and Construction Spending at 10 and Auto Sales throughout the day but none of that really matters as Non-Farm Payroll is tomorrow morning (8:30) and we'd better…
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Wheeee, what a ride!

There's nothing like a nice market shake-out to let you know where things stand.  After all the drama though, we're right back to the same 2,835 line we were watching on the S&P in yesterday morning's PSW Report.  If we're back over 2,835 this morning, then all that panic was for nothing and this is merely a little consolidation off a huge run but we did run levels in our Live Member Chat Room that now need to hold on each index (futures) in order to be bullish again (currently we're just waiting and seeing):

  • Weak bounce lines:  Dow 26,130, S&P 2,835, Nas 6,980 and Russell 1,585.
  • Strong bounce lines: Dow 26,260, S&P 2,850, Nas 7,010 and Russell 1,590

At 8am, we have (in the Futures) Dow 26,257, S&P 2,836, Nasdaq 6,968 and Russell 1,595 so mixed signals so far and nothing we'd like to throw money at though yesterday, in our Live Chat Room, we were throwing money in all sorts of directions as we played the nice, violent market moves in the Futures.

OK, that was a nice dip to 6,920 but $500+ is always a good place to give your horse a rest so done with /NQ and now looking for a bounce again.  


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Tumblin’ Tuesday – Markets Take a Much Needed Pause

Finally!  

We keep betting on it and it finally happens but don't get exicted about this teeny, tiny pullback – it will take a lot more than this little action to derail the bull market.  I know it's very much in vogue to ignore "facts" and "news" but we're Fundamental Investors – we can't help ourselves and, when the conditions weaken, we bet against the market, no matter how good the charts look.  As I noted in Friday's Morning Report:

That means our index shorts (see yesterday's Morning Report) are back on in the Futures and we do have S&P (/ES) 2,850 this morning and Nasdaq (/NQ) 7,000 along with Dow (26,425) and Russell (/TF) 1,610 but, as with yesterday, we favor shorting the S&P and the Nasdaq as they cross below with very tight stops over the lines.  The once-again weak Dollar is supporting the indexes for now but it's not likely to last (China and Japan won't put up with it past this level).  

We're not shy about going back to the well and this is just another one of those ways the rich get richer in ways the poor don't even have access to (Futures accounts).  We discussed our hedges earlier in the week and I would strongly suggest not going into the weekend without any as it may occur to some people that a declining GDP might not support a 12.5% rise in the S&P since the beginning of Q4.

We didn't get a good entry signal (crossing below the lines from above) until Monday morning, when I sent out a 5am note to our Members saying:

Futures dipping a little bit but nothing exciting so far.  I still have 6 short /ES at 2,854 and 4 short /NQ at 6,999.68 and still long 8 /DX at 89.10. 


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Monday’s Market Magic Trick – Rising Without the Fed?

This is the most important chart in the World:

It illustrates the $2Tn "taper" that is about to take place and is, in fact, taking place right now and projected to accellerate rapidly into 2019 at which point (gasp!) Central Banks will become net sellers of assets and there is NO WAY that doesn't depress prices, even with a theoretical $2Tn being repatriated from overseas accounts on the Corporate side.  

While we can't count on Corporations to spend the cash they bring back in, we can expect the massive stock buyback trend to continue.  As you can see from Credit Suisse's chart, the only real buyer of US equities for the past 10 years has been the Corporations themselves – who have engaged in MASSIVE buy-back programs that have lowered the share count of US equites by 20% which has therefore inflated the earnings per share by 20% by simply reducing the number of shares those earnings are divided by.  

This makes our Top 1% CEOs look good and also makes them much, much richer (see: "Stock buybacks enrich the bosses even when business sags") and so far, so good, as the market has gone up despite most companies making roughly the same amount of Dollars they did back in 2008 – they are just changing the math to make things look pretty.

But, much like the Oil Cartel (OPEC) benefits from cutting supply and making oil more scarce and Crypto Currency purveyors keep their supplies limited to jack up the prices - the Corporate Cartel (MFers) reduces the supply of stock AND they themselves begin buying their stock – as if it's valuable at any price.  The higher the market goes, the more they buy – what can possibly go wrong?

Like any meth addict, they are now hopelessly hooked on buybacks and simply can't stop.  It's a finite World and they have infinite amounts of money and they can't grow market share so they will reduce the number of shares in their companies to make it look like there's great demand for their stock and, most importantly, to make it look like they are accomplishing something.

Just this morning, Lowe's (LOW) announced a $5Bn stock buyback program ON
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Flip Flop Friday – Dollar Rallies Briefly on Trump Statement

What a wild ride the Dollar is having!  

Technically, so far, it's just a weak bounce off the (hopefully) floor at 88 but it's been a week of wild trading in US Dollars as first Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talks the Dollar down (see "Record High Wednesday – Diving Dollar Boosts Equity Markets") and then his boss, Trump, completely negates what he says and promises a stronger Dollar. 

You can see the very quick reaction we got yesterday but then traders remembered it was Donald Trump who promised a stronger Dollar – and it began to sell off again.  Meanwhile, we're long on the Dollar (/DX) here as we think the Fed will indicate they are on a path to tighten further while Draghi and Abe continue to prevaricate.  That's what currency values are all about – your currency relative to someone elses.  The Dollar index itself is measured against a basket of other major currencies – there's no absolute value to the Dollar at all (kind of like BitCoin!).  

We'll see what happens this morning as Trump is giving his Davos speech (8am, EST) and the theme is "America is Open For Business" touting our resurgent economy and, of course, low taxes and lack of regulations.  In fact, just this morning, Trump named BPs lawyer and noted climate foe, Jeffery Clark to head up the DOJ's Environmental Unit and, as the linked article has to note – "No, this is not a headline from The Onion").  At least Clark has experience (though it's in destroying the environment, not protecting it). 

To show how serious he is about trade, Trump's appointment for Deputy Chief of US Trade, G. Payne Griffin, just graduated American University in 2014 with a Bachelors Degree in Economics but, don't worry folks – he was an Eagle Scout, so things should be great.  Hopefully he'll work out better than 24 year-old Drug Czar, Taylor Weyeneth, who just had to resign because he lied on his resume. 

Speaking of the envrionment (enjoy it while it lasts!), Weather.com put together a fantastic article on climate change called "50 States, 50 Stories" which should be read by


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Thrilling Thursday – Nasdaq 7,000 Is Our Next Summit

Can we really go higher?

Bullish Sentiment is literally off the charts and only 7,826 (11.4%) out of 68,119 investors polled by Earnings Whispers are currently bearish about the markets.  Usually you might thing that's the sign of a turn but if my daughter's softball team were going up against the Yankees, you might see similar sentiment results in favor of the Yankees and that does NOT mean betting against the Yankees is a smart move – just because it's the contrarian play. 

Sometimes, the crowd gets things right though not this time – this time the crowd is full of idiots who are chasing a trend off a cliff but other times, you shouldn't just be a knee-jerk contrarian.  Meanwhile, as I've been saying since Nov 29th's "Record High Wednesday – We Will All Be Billionaires," if they are going to keep giving money away in the markets – who are we to turn it down?  The Money Talk Portfolio we looked at that morning was "only" up 70.7% for the year and, this morning, those untouched positions are now up 80.9% less than two months later.

We cashed our other portfolios in and started new ones on Jan 2nd and our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio is already up $25,000 (5%) in 3 weeks – a pace that will make us $1Bn in 14 years (at 75% annualized) and of course that's ridiculous and unsustainable but that's what you are paying for when you buy into a market that is basically up 5% for the month as well.  While earnings are "pretty good" so far, they are (as I mentioned in yesterday's Report) bolstered by a weak Dollar as well as the stimulus of a $1.5Tn Tax Cut, which consumers have already borrowed against to spend last Christmas.

Looking forward, we are now counting on the repatriation of Trillions of overseas Dollars to boost the markets into 2018 but, just like the rising income inequality in America, the benefits of the repatriation are concentrated to the Top 1% Corporations and, in fact, just 16 companies account for half of all overseas funds:


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ValueWalk

George Soros: General Theory Of Reflexivity

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Open Society Institute chairman and founder George Soros shares his latest thinking on economics and politics in a five-part lecture series recorded at Central European University, October 26-30, 2009. The lectures are the culmination of a lifetime of practical and philosophical reflection.

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

This short video provides an overview of the five-part series of lectures by George Soros, discussing his latest thinking on economics and politics.

George Soros: The Lecture Series: Introduction

General...

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Phil's Favorites

Defeating Nonsense with Evidence

 

Defeating Nonsense with Evidence

Courtesy of 

Most of the market commentary you come across, including a lot of mine, is nonsense – even if it’s well meaning nonsense.

Of course we’re trying to interpret things as they happen – it’s human nature to want to understand what’s going on. The thing is, it’s probably best to use evidence as a starting point, rather than just repeating old wives tales, rules of thumb and opinions you hear in the media that sound better than they actually are.

At least, that’s what we try to do.

I want to make sure you don’t miss either of these ...



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Zero Hedge

US Olympians Are Turning To Bitcoin To Offset Competition-Related Costs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As many college athletes know all too well, funding for more niche sports like - for example - luge is often lacking, and securing more often requires hours of fundraising by the team's boosters.

Which is why, ahead of the Winter Games in PyeongChang, some teams started getting creative. For instance, fundraisers for the US luge team have started accepting donations in bitcoin. Indeed, the team has raised several thousand dollars worth of bitcoin.

...



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Digital Currencies

US Olympians Are Turning To Bitcoin To Offset Competition-Related Costs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As many college athletes know all too well, funding for more niche sports like - for example - luge is often lacking, and securing more often requires hours of fundraising by the team's boosters.

Which is why, ahead of the Winter Games in PyeongChang, some teams started getting creative. For instance, fundraisers for the US luge team have started accepting donations in bitcoin. Indeed, the team has raised several thousand dollars worth of bitcoin.

...



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Chart School

'Bull Trap' in Dow Jones Industrial Average

Courtesy of Declan.

Starting to see evidence that the February bounce in markets is fading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a 'bull trap' as it ducked below breakout support despite finishing above yesterday's close. Volume dropped as relative performance against tech indices took a marked step lower. Troubling times for the 'flight-to-safety' route.


The Semiconductor Index had looked like it was ready to mount a challenge of the January 'bull trap' but the last couple of days have seen a second attempt at a reversal ...

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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • BMO Capital raised the price target for Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) from $191 to $213. Home Depot shares closed at $183.06 on Wednesday.
  • KeyBanc boosted Synopsys, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) price target from $106 to $110. Synopsys shares closed at $88.46 on Wednesday.
  • Imperial Capital increased Qualys Inc (NASDAQ: QLYS) price target from $62 to $83. Qualys shares closed at $72.15 on Wednesday.
  • KeyBanc boosted the price target for GrubHub Inc (NYSE: ...


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Biotech

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>