Phil's Newsletter

Oil Plunges as Iran Nuclear Deal Achieved – How to Lock It In

Oil has plunged back to $51 as a deal is reached with Iran.  

First Cuba, now Iran and we've pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan – no wonder Fox is freaking out and calling this a complete disaster – it certainly is for the Defense Industry (ITA) (XAR).  Hopefully Trump can start a war with Mexico so we can get our belligerence back on track because it's getting pretty dull out there under Obama.  

We called a bottom on oil at $51 in our Live Member Chat Room this morning and already it's up at $52, which is a quick $1,000 per contract gain already.  We don't think oil will come ripping back but $50 is likely to hold and $55 is probably the right price, overall.  That means it's a good time, which the VIX is still high, to sell some puts on the Oil ETF (USO), which is down around $17.50 after bottoming out at $15.61 in March, when oil was down around $45. 

Since we think $55 is the right price for oil (about $19 on USO), then selling the Jan $17 puts for $1.50 is a no-brainer.  Selling 10 contracts puts $1,500 in our pocket and obligates us to buy 1,000 shares of USO for $17 ($17,000), which is net $15.50 on it's own and an 11.5% discount off the current price.   If you are a typical consumer using 750 gallons of gas per year, that's like giving yourself a $2 per gallon discount.  

What you are doing with this kind of trade is locking in the low prices on oil and gasoline while it's down and, if oil prices stay flat or go up – you keep the $1,500 and the contracts expire worthless in January.  If oil prices fall further, then you are obligated to own 1,000 shares of USO but they then become a long-term hedge against rising fuel prices while your actual savings come every day at the pump.  

This is similar to the strategy we laid out for our Members at the beginning of this year with "Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges for 2015" though, at the time, we liked the…
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Greece is Fixed Again – Now onto China!

Embedded image permalink

"Tsakalatos was just asked to pledge his iPad as collateral, he can keep the red case….for now"

The guns pointed at the head of Greek Minister Tsakalatos but it's clear from the look on his face that one wrong move might be his last as the Greeks were forced to pledge $50Bn worth of their assets to EU Banksters at fire sale prices in exchange for $40Bn of additional loans that will, theoretically, kick the can another couple of years down the road.  

That's what they call "victory" in "free" markets these days.  Not only will Greece be forced to sell their assets but that money goes into a fund that can only be used to pay down the country's debts (AND interest, of course) AND Greece has to leave the poor corporations alone when the feel the need to cut a few corners under the label of "reducing bureaucracy and market protections."  Let the carpet-bagging begin!

EU markets are happy but not overly so, with roughly 1.5% gains into lunch this morning.  Our own Futures are up almost 1% at Dow (/YM) 17,800, S&P (/ES) 2,085, Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,445 and Russell (/ES) 1,255 and all are tempting shorts but we'd like to see if the German DAX manages to hold the 11,500 strong bounce line we predicted it would be testing on month ago (June 16th) when we said:

Speaking of gravity, we're looking for some weak bounces today, especially in Germany, where the DAX is completing a 10% correction (12,250 to 11,000) which is still above the 200-day moving average at 10,469, which would be another 5% drop from here.  This is all perfectly normal after a 30% run from 9,500 in January, which is kind of a lot for a major market to move in 6 months.

As you can see from how well it obeys the lines Fibonacci Lines (see our primer here), the bots are firmly in control of the trading in Europe so this 50% retracement will be a huge test of sentiment

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Friday Market Fakery – Dollar Dip Does the TRICK!

When all else fails – crash the currency!

That's what we're seeing this morning as the Greek "fix" pops the Euro and drops the Dollar over 1%, from 97 at yesterday's close to 95.55 earlier this morning, when I called for re-shorting the Future in a Morning Alert to our Members at 6:36 am (EST).  My comment on the idiocy was:

Yesterday morning and last night our shorting lines were: "Dow 17,700 (/YM), S&P 2,070 (/ES), Nasdaq 4,400 (/NQ) and Russell 1,245 (/TF) because nothing is fixed – just more cups and balls" and this morning only the RUT is over the line so, technically, they are the laggard and we can short them on a cross back below 1,240 but no conviction – tight stops over that line!    /NKD is also a good short below the 20,000 line – also with very tight stops above. 

INDU DAILYThis will be our 4th time back to the well this week as the Dow, for example, has moved an average of 250 points down AND 250 points up each day.  This morning, we're 180 points up but the pattern is that old, familiar BS pump-job in the Futures followed by heavy selling all day as our beloved Banksters and Fund Managers dump their shares on the retail suckers who pile in to buy the f'ing dips.  

And who can blame them?  The Corporate Media is full of assurances that all is well with a parade of analysts making bullish predictions and brushing off events in China and Europe as if they are mere bumps in the road towards Dow 20,000.  

According to Bloomberg: "While the efforts have helped boost the largest stated-owned companies—oil giant PetroChina has gained 22 percent since June 26—they have so far failed to revive overseas investors’ confidence. Dual-listed Chinese stocks traded 33 percent lower in Hong Kong than on the mainland, the biggest discount since 2009, suggesting investors abroad are more pessimistic than the locals on the valuation of the companies."  

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Flip Floppin’ Thursday – China Arrests the Short Sellers

Image result for china arrest short sellers

Arrest them! Arrest them, arrest them -

Then shoot and interrogate them!

That was the word from the Communist Party last night as they halted one half the market and made it illegal to short the other half while the PBOC, the brokers, the banks and even Goldman Sachs went all in to pump up the markets for the Top 1% over in the "People's" Republic of China.   

Poor Mao must be rolling over in his grave to see the shenanigans going on in China this week as the Chinese Governments goes to EXTREME measures to prop up the markets and rescue the speculators who have helped to destroy the agrarian economy the Chairman built the country around.  

Aside from shutting down half the market (still not trading), banning short selling and pumping Billions into the market through various mechanisms (all since yesterday's open), China has also banned "major stockholders" from selling stakes in public companies.  This is not just insiders, this includes funds and money managers as well!  “It suggests desperation,” Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said by phone. “It actually creates more fear because it shows that they’ve lost control.”

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that investors with holdings exceeding 5 percent as well as corporate executives and directors are prohibited from selling stakes for six months.  They even got their buddies at Goldman Sachs to put out a statement saying "There is no China Stock Bubble – in fact, we see a rally ahead."  

The rule is intended to stabilize capital markets amid an “unreasonable plunge” in share prices, the CSRC said.  While China has already ordered government-owned institutions to maintain or increase stock holdings, the CSRC directive expands the sales ban to non-state companies and potentially foreign investors who own major stakes in mainland businesses.

While the authorities should “pull out stops” as much as they can during a crisis, China’s actions may backfire by scaring away investors, said Burton Malkiel, author of the investment classic…
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Which Way Wednesday – China is Down 5%, Why are you Looking at Greece???

SPY DAILYYesterday was a good show. 

Despite the fact that nothing changed, the Dow plunged 300 points from the open and then recovered 300 points into the close and now (8:02 am) it's up 130 points pre-market ahead of the Fed Minutes, which will be released at 2pm this afternoon.  As you know, we called for shorting the indexes in yesterday morning's post (which you can have delivered to you pre-market by clicking here), saying:

They are having more meetings with Greece but who cares with China collapsing.  Crazy we should be up this much so I like shorting our Futures at 17,700 on /YM, 2,075 on /ES, 4,440 on /NQ and 1,250 on /TF.  Tight stops over, shorting the laggard is always a good plan and then getting out if any of the others cross over.

As you can see from the Russell chart, our initial call was good for the top of a $2,750 run on /TF (Russell Futures) and we caught the dead bottom at 11:14 in our Live Chat Room, when I said to our Members:

Indexes looking bottomy at 17,400, 2,040, 4,350 and 1,225 – a good day's work so I'll be leaving early this afternoon to go have fun at the park!  

I'm on vacation at Disney this week.  That's the great thing about our style of playing the markets – we can do it even when we're on vacation!  Aside from catching a $2,750 gain PER CONTRACT on the Russell for our Members, the Dow paid $1,500 per contact, S&P $1,750 per contract and Nasdaq made $1,800 per contract.  

FXI WEEKLYOf course I also mentioned, FOR FREE, right in the morning post, that we were short the China ETF (FXI), which opened at $42 and will be much lower today as well as our short on the ultra-long China ETF (CHAU), which was $28.39 in the
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Technical Tuesday – Looking for Bounces while China Drags us Down

Every mistake, we must surely be learning

Still my guitar gently weeps

I don't know how someone controlled you

They bought and sold you

While my guitar gently weeps

Oh my, this is getting exciting! 

As we expected yesterday morning, our Short-Term Portfolio popped a lovely 11.5%, gaining $11,500 on the day and we took that money and went shopping, adding 1,000 shares of NorthStar Realty (NRF) to our Long-Term Portfolio at a net of $10.60 (using options to reduce our costs) – effectively transferring our short-term gains to long-term purchases.  

This is how we keep our paired portfolios from tilting too bearish and it puts our ill-gotten gains to good use in a steady, dividend-paying stock that happens to be on sale at the moment (see our Top Trade Alert for details).  Very simply, when we make big bearish wins, we buy some bullish positions that are on sale and vice versa – it's not complicated!  Balance is very important in any kind of market if you intend to be a long-term investor – as is learning how to take a step back and watch from the sidelines once in while – something we discussed yesterday.  

This morning, in our Live Member Chat Room, we already took a poke at shorting the Futures as my comment to Members at 6:46 am was:

They are having more meetings with Greece but who cares with China collapsing.  Crazy we should be up this much so I like shorting our Futures at 17,700 on /YM, 2,075 on /ES, 4,440 on /NQ and 1,250 on /TF.  Tight stops over, shorting the laggard is always a good plan and then getting out if any of the others cross over.

Russell Futures (/TF) were the laggard but gave us a nice 4-point drop already (+$200), which is enough to…
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Monday Meltdown – Emergency Measure in China, Greece Who?


It's a skill or cleverness in deceiving others, usually by hand and who know what invisible hand is playing cups and balls with Global Economies these days?  We are simply lurching from crisis to crisis this summer in a state of constant distraction when the answer to your investing problems is really quite simple – DON'T PLAY!!!

It's a rigged game and they keep changing the rules but you don't even have access to real information – not when the Mainstream Media you rely upon for your information tells you that the Greek vote will be "close" or favors remaining in the Euro when it ends up going over 60% against – that's not even within the margin of polling error – therefore, the polls are either faulty or simply lying to you to get you to invest contrary to the true facts.

The same thing is going on in China, where EXTREME measures are being taken to prop up the market.  This weekend, IPOs have been halted in China and the PBOC announced it will provide liquidity to China Securities Finance Corp, who manage the nation's short-selling and margin trading and Central Huijin Investments (a unit of China's Sovereign Wealth Fund) began buying China ETFs to stem the outflows from their market.  

That was just today's action!  Last week we already had:  A PBOC rate cut, cut in reserve requirements, state pension funds investing in more stocks, lowering brokers fees, relaxation of margin rules allowing clients with "insufficient collateral" to hold onto their positions, bond issuances by brokers, more reduced tradijng fees, even lower margin requirements, regulators threatening to "punish" short-sellers, a meeting to discuss halting all trading in large-cap companies on ChiNext, raising the cost of Futures trading (to stop shorting), more short-selling suspensions, $19.3Bn from brokers to prop up the market and, on Saturday, 25 mutual funds jointly stated they will "actively buy stock funds and hold them for a year." 

This is EXACTLY what they mean when they say "rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic" and what stikes me about my recent conversations with investors is that they keep asking me how they should play this catatrophe which ranges, to me, from "what part of the ship
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Non-Farm Thursday – Is Good News Bad News?

We're waiting on the jobs report.  

Nothing really matters until we get that bit of data – certainly not these thrashing indexes that may or may not be in their death throes as the weather heats up and the Global Economy cools down.  The question is, do we want a lot of job growth – which will signal economic strength and drive up the Dollar in anticipation of eventual Fed rate hikes, or do we want bad news in weak jobs, that will stop the Dollar from kicking over the 95 line and keep the Fed hikes away for another quarter? 

Certainly given the choice between paying higher wages or getting MORE FREE MONEY, it's no choice at all for our Corporate Masters, who are also up to their eyeballs in debt that they've used to buy their own stock at record-high prices (what could possibly go wrong?).  We can only pray that they have done their part and refrained from hiring or, if hiring, haven't done anything too crazy like paying their workers more money.  

As we were discussing in Member Chat, Seattle has an $11 minimum wage since April 1st (gradually phasing to $15) and is already the fastest-growing part of our country for housing, according to the recent Case-Shiller Report.  Not only do higher wages provide an immediate boost to housing which, in turn, boosts the consumption of durable goods and adds construction and service jobs – but it has been a boon for the very businesses that feared the increase as their customers now have more money to spend (as well as their employees).  Los Angeles is next but starting at $10 this month.  

Lack of wage growth has been the unspoken plague that has been holding back our economy but, ironically, the Fed does everything it can to prevent wage inflation, which is also the kind of inflation that leads to all the rest.  That means, in 30 minutes, we're going to be more concerned with the change in hourly earnings, which popped 0.3% last month and sent the S&P down 20 points even though 280,000 jobs were created.  

Expectations for this report are running about 250,000 but it's how much we have…
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Whipsaw Wednesday – Greece Up, China Down

Embedded image permalinkWheeeeeeee – what a ride! 

It's 7:39:11 am and Greece is "fixed" at the moment and we have to time-stamp it to the second or it may change again.  European markets are LOVING IT with 1.5-2.5% gains across the board but, on the whole, the DAX (the only one we really care about) isn't even close to our weak bounce line at 11,250 yet – so we don't care.  We do care about CHINA!!! (see yesterday's post), who dropped over $200Bn in stimulus this week and they fell another 5% this morning anyway.  That's not good, folks

5% would be a 900-point drop in the Dow in one day.  I think I need to put that in perspective because we say "China fell 5% today" and people go "well, isn't that a shame" and that's the end of it.  It's not a shame, folks, it's a TRAGEDY!  To sum things up, the Shanghai has fallend from 5,200 to 4,000, which is 23%, which would be over 4,000 Dow points and it bounced back to 4,300, which was a weak 25% retrace of the drop that was IMMEDIATELY reversed DESPITE massive stimulus measures.  

Of course the 3,900 line is bouncy – it represents a 25% drop from 5,200 so SOMEONE is going to speculate and buy that dip but the dip buyers ran straight into a new round of sellers and now 3,900 MUST HOLD on the Shanghai or Greece will be the last thing you're worried about next week!  

China Margin FinancingWe are nowhere near unwinding the 2 TRILLION Yuan ($339Bn) of margin debt that has built up in China, much of it financed at the 22% capped interest rates.  When your market is gaining 100% a year, taking a 22% loan out to buy stocks seems to make sense – especially when all of your state-controlled media (not to mention the Corporate Propaganda you pick up in the US) tells you how AWESOME everything is.  

There are now more registered stock traders in China (90M) than there are registered Communist Party Members (87.8M) – interesting news on the 94th anniversary of the party's founding.  It’s safe to assume this is not
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Trillion Yuan Tuesday – China Pumps it Up to Close the Quarter

Photo published for Strap In! China Is Crashing Again

Down in the pleasure centre,
hell bent or heaven sent,
listen to the propaganda,
listen to the latest slander.
Pump it up until you can feel it.
Pump it up when you don't really need it. – Elvis

China has set a new Global record by dumping almost $200Bn (over 1Tn Yuan) in stimulus into their overheated markets in just two days.  Sunday night it was a rate cut AND lowering the reserve requirements for banks and yesterday afternoon they dropped another $50Bn in a "Reverse Repo" operation and, to cap it off this morning, the Finance and social Security Ministries published draft rules that would permit the state pension fund to invest up to 30% of its net asset value in securities, potentially allowing ANOTHER 600B yuan ($97B) to enter the market.

Take 30% of our retirement savings and buy stocks that already gained over 100% this year in an attempt to prevent a bear market from wiping out all of the gains – BRILLIANT!!!  

Embedded image permalinkCertainly Chinese speculators thought so as the Shanghai went from down 5.6% at the open to up 5.6% at the close!  This allowed them to save a little face at the close of the Quarter and, more importantly, promises Fund Managers a whole new round of suckers to dump shares into in July.

10% happens to be a Strong Bounce off the 25% drop, per our 5% Rule™, so we're not going to be too impressed until we see some follow-through.  Like us, Bloomberg is skeptical, saying: "China's Magic Tricks Can't Save Its Stock Market" warning us:

Only time will tell if Beijing's bag of tricks is empty. But if it is, the fallout on global markets could dwarf the impact of Greece's flirtation with default. The world, after all, has had a few years to contemplate a Greek exit from the euro. But if the world's biggest trading nation suddenly hit a wall, it would

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Zero Hedge

Chess Vs Checkers - John Kerry Edition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment...



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Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...

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Phil's Favorites

Europe: Running on Borrowed Time


Thoughts from the Frontline: Europe: Running on Borrowed Time

By John Mauldin

“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

– Romano Prodi, EU Commission president, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis. They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far large...

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Whitney Tilson: Berkshire Hathaway Worth $267,000 A Share

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Excerpted from an email which Whitney Tilson sent to investors

1) Below is a spot-on cover story in this weekend’s Barron’s about how attractive Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) is today:

“In effect, the world is Berkshire’s oyster,” Buffett wrote, noting that it “is perfectly positioned to allocate capital rationally and at minimal cost.” Jain’s catastrophe-reinsurance operation, for instance, is doing less business now because alternative sources of coverage, n...

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Chart School

Fifth Day of Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Sellers in the S&P made it five days of downside in a row. On this last day it closed near the day's lows, but also on its 200-day MA. If there was reason for a bounce, then tomorrow could be the day.  Technicals are all net negative.

The Dow took the selling harder. It undercut the July swing low having earlier lost its 200-day MA. Next up is the February swing low.

Small Caps finished at its 200-day MA, after it lost trendline support on Friday...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Why We Fail To Trade Our Plans After We've Planned Our Trades (Trader Feed)

A reader recently asked the question of why we so often don't trade our plans after we've gone to the trouble of planning our trades.  The usual answer to this question is that emotion gets in the way, which naturally leads to strategies for yet more planning, "discipline", and the dampening of emotion.  As an interesting article on motor sport makes clear, however, it may well be that we lose our plans when we lose our concentration.  Instead of working to control emotions, it makes sense to cultivate ex...

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Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Be aware of these surroundings friends!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


It could pay to be “aware of these surroundings!”

(1) – Nasdaq Composite Index is back at 2000 highs, with little wiggle room at the top of this rising wedge pattern

(2) – Google shot up after earnings two weeks ago hitting a resistance line based upon its 2007 highs and a 161% Fibonacci extension level, where it made a reversal pattern.

(3) – Red hot Biotech (IBB) is at the top of this rising channel and created a potential reversal pattern with support just below current prices.

(4) – TLT declined, hitting its 38% retracement level and of late is breaking above this bullish fall...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom


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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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