Phil's Newsletter

Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 2,200, Dow 19,000

All-time highs! 

Last time all our indexes hit all-time highs together was back in good old 1999 and that party was never going to stop either – unitl it did, of course.  The pullback in 2000 wasn't even that bad, if you don't count the silly run to 5,000 on the Nasdaq that made no sense, then the pullback from 4,000 to 3,000 was very normal – it was only the crazies that bought stocks up at Nasdaq 5,000 that got really burned….

Of course, that Nasdq wasn't the same Nasdaq we have today.  There is no more (Amazon delivers our pet food), there is no more WebVan or Kozmo (Amazon delivers our groceries) and, of course, there is no more Books-a-Million (yep, Amazon). 

Image result for amazon p/e history 2016Aside from Amazon, who lead the overpriced team in the new bubble with market cap that is 179 TIMES their projected (forward) earnings, other survivors of the crash of 2000/2001 are AAPL, HPE, IBM, MSFT, GOOGL, INTC, CSCO, ORCL and IM, who are especially notable as they actually compete with Amazon yet they still survive.

So clearly it is better to be a company that actually makes stuff – especially stuff that other apsiring tech companies buy from you.  For AAPL, it's tech employees who buy there stuff and for GOOGL – they advertise all the stuff people are trying to sell you.  Yet AMZN has a $373Bn market cap – bigger than all the stocks put together back in 2000! 

Amazon was coming back to reality before the election but now it's off to the races again and, while we're not worried about our Jan $900 short calls we sold for $8.10 the last time AMZN popped (now $1.98 so we're up 75%), it is getting interesting again as a short for those brave enough to point and say "Emperor Bezos has no profits!"

Well, they do have profits but they are all in their cloud storage division – the rest of the business is actually running at a loss this year.  Anyway, it's an interesting stock to short.  I favor the April $850 ($90)/780 ($50) bear puts spread at net…
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$2,100 Tuesday – Gasoline Futures Pay off Bigly (Again)

Yep, we did it again.

In yesterday's post, I noted that Gasoline Futures (/RB) were taking off, as they crossed the $1.35 mark and said our target was $1.45 and they already hit $1.40 during yesterday's session and it came so fast that we took the $2,100 profit per contract and ran, missing this morning's pop to $1.43 but hopefully we'll retest $1.40 for another entry (and another $2,100).  

We're now into real profits on Gasoline Futures as we clawed back from our intitial loss with huge wins on Monday (+$1,875 per contract), Tuesday (+$1,875 per contract) and Thursday (+$420 per contract), where I said in Friday Morning's post: "Hopefully we'll pop over $1.35 (from $1.33) and run up from there.  

We laid out our long premise for gasoline almost 3 weeks ago, right in the morning post:

So more people working making more money means more driving yet Gasoline Futures (/RB) have plunged to $1.39 this morning because that pipeline fire that caused prices to spike (which we shorted) earlier in the week, is already fixed but now we like /RB long because more workers = more drivers and we have the Thanksgiving Holiday coming up and that's a big demand holiday.  We made a quick $500 yesterday on a pop off the $1.45 line so this, of course, is a much better entry but it's a scary, volatile contract that makes or loses $420 per penny move!

It's those boring FUNDAMENTALS that make plays like this possible and the next Funamental Issue we're tracking is the very low volume that this "rally" has been trading on and that means there's no real support for this sudden $5 TRILLION surge in market valuation so, when people do finally decide it's time to take profits – there won't be any buyers and we can drop back very, Very, VERY fast.  

How are we playing that?  Well we talked about…
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Monday Market Movement – The Trump Rally Continues

Up and up we go.  

If we knew voting for Trump was going to be this good for the markets, we would have doubled down on our longs.  As it is, our Long-Term Portfolio gained $98,471 since Nov 6th and that's 20% in 15 days so thank you, Mr. President!

Of course our Long-Term Portfolio is all long, protected by our Short-Term Portfolio, which lost $10,968 (11%) on our hedges but not so bad as the net is still up $87,503, which is a gain of 14.5% in 15 days in our paired portfolios (we began with $500,000 in the LTP and $100,000 in the STP).  Our self-balancing Options Opportunity Portfolio gained $7,843 (7.8%) over the same period and our well-hedged Butterfly Portfolio gained $16,100 (16%) – actually our best overall performer – even though it's our most conservative. 

As you may have noticed, I've been banging the table on Gasoline Futures (/RB) and that finally took off this morning, breaking towards our $1.45 target.  Natural Gas (/NG) hit $2.95 and that's a "take the money and run" level as $3 is going to be hard to break and the cold weather on the East Coast that's goosing the contracts will only last this week and then it's back to warmer than usual weather. 

Speaking of weather, we figure out why Warren Buffett changed his mind on airlines and it's because of the weather.  NASA just launched a very advanced satellite that will do for weather what Hubble did for astronomy and will improve our forecasting ability by leaps and bounds.  That's going to benefit the arilines, a business where every penny counts and knowing where the storms are going to be can save them Billions.  The current NOAA satellite is 40 years old!  

More accurate weather info can help airlines plan better and save Billions of Dollars and that's right to their bottom line.  United does $40Bn in sales and drops $3Bn to the bottom line (9%) so even a 2% increase in operating efficiency is about another Billion for them and a 33% increase in net income.  Now THAT makes sense as a Buffett play.  

While it…
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Friday Falling Dollar Foolishness – OPEC Deal Rumors Right on Schedule

Down goes the Dollar!  

That's significant because it's Options Expiration Day today AND we're settling the December Oil Futures Contracts (/CLZ6) so the well-timed 0.5% drop in the Dollar (which we predicted – thank you!) is boosting oil, gold, the indexes – well everything priced in Dollars – you get the idea.  This is how they take advantage of TA people because TA doesn't take into account the value of the underlying currency of the thing they are charting.  

Image result for technical analysis voodooTo illustrate how silly that is, suppose you were charting the freezing temperature of a water and they kept changing the type of liquid but you just kept putting lines on the chart as if it were water all along.  

A person looking at the chart would believe the freezing temperature of water varies wildly and they would come up with all sorts of idiotic reasons to explain this and, if there was a market for betting what temperature water would freeze at, they would start naming the chart patterns and selling you analysis that claims to give you the inside edge to bet what temperature water would freeze at tomorrow.  

Does that sound idiotic?  Well that's Technical Analysis!  Water freezes at 32 degrees F and that's a F'ing FACT, not a theory.  F is also the first word in Fundamentals – where we deal in FACTS, not theories.  You can't ignore a massively significant FACTOR, like the price of the Dollar and expect to accurately chart the movement of something that is priced in Dollars.  

Of course, at PSW, we are Fundamentalists and we do take these things into account, that's how we knew to go long on Gasoline Futures (/RB) at the $1.325 line this morning – based on the chart AND the chart of the Dollar AND the expectation of a rumor from OPEC we discussed in yesterday morning's PSW Report.  We've been in and out of /RB all week and, at 3:24 pm in our Live Member Chat Room, I said:

RUT/Jasu – Still 6 short

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Federally Failing Thursday – Can Yellen Save the Markets?

Related imageWill we still have Janet Yellen to kick around next year?

Almost certainly we will because her term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn't expire until February, 2018 but, even if she is not re-appointed as Chair – she's still a Governor until 2024 and Trump has no ability to remove her.  Likewise, Fisher remains vice-chair through June of 2018 and his Governorship lasts through 2020 and there are only 7 Governors with two open slots because, like the Supreme Court, Congress has refused to confirm any of Obama's picks for replacements (yes, they are that petty).  So now it's going to be up to Trump to confirm 2 new Fed Governors but it will be many years (past his term) before it's likely to have any real influence on the Fed. 

And you've heard the expression "don't fight the Fed", right?  Well that goes for Presidents too because the Fed represents the nations' bankers, not their voters and you cross the money-men (or women) at your own great peril.  Janet will get a chance to tell us about it today as she begins her two-day testimony to Congress.  It's a great day to short the market (same levels as yesterday) as you can expect questions from Democratic Congresspeople like "Just how insane is Donald Trump's economic policy and how much damage will it do to our country?" – stuff like that…

Of course, Yellen will attempt to remain bi-partisan and pretend she doesn't know what programs he's proposing and will even pretend she can't do math and, hardest of all for a grandma from Brooklyn, she will pretend she has no opinion on the subject – it's going to fun!  Fun, but it will come off as uncertain and confusing to those watching and you really don't want to see that when you are holding stocks at the top of the market rally. 

Yesterday we thought 2,180 would not hold on the S&P Futures (/ES) and, of course, they did not but, in our Live Trading Webinar yesterday afternoon, we decided to short the Russell (/ES) and we're currently short 6 at 1,302.8 so we'll see how that plays out.  

Our gasoline longs from
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 2,180 Edition

Another day another $15,000.

That's right, yesterday's long play on Gasoline Futures (/RB) that were already up $15,000 from Monday's call, gained another $15,000 yesterday.  Not bad for two day's work, right?  We only made $10,000 more though as we cut back to 6 contracts at $1.32 – as we didn't want to be too greedy but, as you can see on the chart – they kept on going higher and higher – all the way to $1.34 before finally pulling back.

NOW you missed it – I can't heartily recommend this as a new trade the way I did yesterday and Monday but we do have a Live Trading Webinar today at 1pm (EST) and I'm sure we'll find something fun to trade there.  Another good call from Monday's post was Barrick Gold (ABX), which blasted higer yesterday as George Soros followed us in, buying 1.8M shares, about 1.5% of the company.  Monday's Oil (USO) trade idea is also blasting higher, made even more significant as it's doing so against a strong Dollar.

Oil led the rally yesterday and the S&P seems to have lost its oil dependence way back in May though a bad inventory report today is likely to spark a sell-off that will pull the index down from the 2,180 line and the /ES Futures are testing our shorting line at 2,170 (short below, tight stops above) along with Dow (/YM) 18,900, Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,760, Russell (/TF) 1,295 (raised from Monday's 1,290) and especially the Nikkei (/NKD), now 17,900 and a really fun short (and see Monday for our Nikkei Index (EWJ) play.

Today's EIA inventory report at 10:30 is going to be critical and we are still long 6 contracts in the Futures (see above) but expecting a possible pullback.  Waterborne gasoline exports surged after Colonial Pipeline Co., the main system that moves Gulf Coast gasoline to the Eastern Seaboard, shut for six days following an Oct 31 explosion. The outage backed up almost 8Mb of gasoline that would normally flow to states in the Southeast and along the Atlantic coast.    

U.S. gasoline exports reached 1.07Mb/d in
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$15,000 Tuesday – Monday’s Bottom Call on Oil and Gasoline Pays Off!

How's that for a good call?

As I told you in yesterday morning's post, we've been pressing our long commodity bets as the Dollar topped out at the 100 mark yesterday morning.  As you can see on the right, our gasoline (/RB) longs made $15,000 this morning and yesterday, my pre-market comment was:

What I can tell you is that, generally, a strong Dollar puts negative pressure on commodities, as well as the indexes so, if the Dollar were to pull back off the 100 line (and a weak retrace takes it to 99 which a strong one will test 98 without breaking the still-bullish uptrend), then that will boost Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Oil (USO), Gasoline (UGA) and Natural Gas (UNG) – all of which look like good long-term pokes here at $116.50, $16.35, $9.75, $24.50 and $7.05 respectively.  Of course we have really cool options plays to leverage them but, again, we have to save some things for our Members or it's no fun!

If you missed the post (and you wouldn't if you subscribed) you might have caught me over at the Nasdaq at 10am, where we reiterated our short call on the indexes (and they were still over our lines at the open) as well as our bottom call on Oil (/CL), Gasoline (/RB) and Coffee (/KC).  

We're still a long way from getting even on our Gasoline (UGA) trade, as we entered too early on /RB and need to be over $1.37 to begin netting a profit but we have faith that Thanksgiving weekend (next Thursday) will give us the boost that we're looking for.  Oil (USO) still has to get past the contract rollover on Friday but, after that, we should see some quick upside action.

Meanwhile, those Futures shorts we gave you (also in the morning post) made a $625 per contract profit at Dow (/YM) 18,775, $750 per contract at S&P (/ES) 2,155, $1,600 per contract at Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,680, $800 per contact at Russell (/TF) 1,282 and $500 per contract at Nikkei (/NKD) 17,600 and, best of…
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Monday Monetary Movement – Are We There Yet – Dollar 100 Edition

Go Dollar, go!

As you can see on the chart, we had a blow-off spike down to 96 on Election Eve but, since then – it's been a rocket to 100 for the Dollar which is now up 5% since early October and really 3% of it came in November, after our first pullback from 99.

None of this is a surprise to our Members, of course, as we told you back on 9/14, right in the Morning Report (subscribe here if you like to know what the market will do in advance):

Goldman Sachs has finally caught up to our long Dollar (/DX) premise and we're still sitting on 4 longs at 95 on the Dec 31st contracts (DXX6) with a goal of hitting 100 (but we'll take 99.50 for $4,500 per contact gains for the holidays).  We're expecting a bit of a repeat of last October's action and, until then, we'll just need to be patient.  As I was saying to our Members yesterday, we don't know WHEN enough people will realize we're right to move the Dollar higher but we do know it won't take much of a catalyst to get it going – a Fed hike next week would be a good start.  

If you are futures challenged, the Dollar ETF (UUP) is a nice way to play, now $24.64 and you can buy the Jan $24 calls for 0.85 and sell the $25 calls for 0.35 for net 0.50 on the $1 spread which is already 0.64 in the money so, if UUP stays flat through January expirations, you make 28% but the potential is 100% gain if up moves up just 2% to $25 – that's nice leverage! 

So that's goaaaaaaalllllllllll at 99.50 for gains of $4,500 per contact in less than two months and those…
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T(rump)GIF – Markets Fiddle While Rates Burn

This is NOT good.

Not only are rates spiking 20% since the election but we just had the worst Treasury Auction since 2009 – indicating that investors are quickly losing faith in the US's long-term economic prospects.  And, keep in mind that's WITH expectations that the Fed will tighten in December and WITH a strong Dollar, which is usually a factor when deciding what currency you'd like to tie you money to for 5-30 years.  

We are, of course, shorting the markets again this morning.  Yesterday's watch levels didn't fail so today we raised them in my morning note to our Members and we're focusing on Russell (/TF) short below 1,250 and the S&P (/ES) below 2,160 confirmed by the Dow (/YM) failing 18,700 and Nasdaq (/NQ) below 4,700.  Trump may make America great again – but he doesn't get to change anything for 2 more months so I think the market is getting a bit ahead of itself.

While quite a lot of money poured into the market on Wednesday, the volume yesterday was still 70% over average but the S&P only went from 2,163.26 to 2,167.48 – up just 4.22 (0.2%).  If it takes 70% over average volume to buy us 0.2% – it seems to me that a lot of people must be heading for the exits.  

The Dow burst higher yesterday but 4 companies (GS, JPM, UNH and IBM) were 180 (75%) of the 240-point rally – that is NOT broad-based!  In fact, the entire rally of the past two days has been centered on Pharmaceuticals (no more Obamacare – charge whatever you want!), Oil, Gas & Coal (drill baby, drill), Defense (who hasn't he threatened?) and Financials (repeal regulations helps the little guy how?).   

Yesterday we got the first inkling of money going the other way as investors began to rethink their Tech Sector investments under an anti-science administration.  Alternative Energy stocks have been a cornerstone of investments in tech for most of the past decade and that's the kind of unwind that won't play out over just a couple of days.  

In fact, when you consider that the 5% run…
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$21,000 Thursday – President Trump Makes Our Profits Great Again!


That's how much yesterday's 5 futures plays gained in less than 24 hours – thank you President Trump!  And your welcome to all our appreciative readers who are learning to love the new administration by cashing in on their policies – we look forward to a wild 4 years and then the usual 8 years the Democrats will spend trying to fix all the damage.  But that's in the Future – yesterday, right in the morning post, I said to you:

Well, I may have sold my Futures too soon but we have great lines for re-entering longs at 18,000 on /YM, 2,100 on /ES, 4,700 on /NQ, 1,175 on /TF and 16,800 on /NKD.   Tight stops below, of course and you can even use them as shorting lines if you need them (with tight stops above) but, as noted earlier – it was an overreaction.

We went pretty much straight up off those lines.  You can see the S&P (/ES) on the charts above and here's the Russell (/TF), which gave us the best bang for the buck, picking up $7,500 per contract as it tested 1,250 this morning.  Our other winners were the Dow (/YM) at 18,650 – a $3,250 per contract gain, Nasdaq (/NQ) at 4,875 – up $3,500 per contract and the Nikkei (/NKD) hit 17,550 – up $3,750 per contract so our 5 index calls, which we sent as an Alert to our Members at 4:58 am, gained a total of $21,000 – and that is over and above what we made playing the night before on the massive sell-off, when we first decided President Trump would not be so terrible. 

This is why we teach our Members how to play the Futures as well as how to use options to enhance their portfolio returns – sometimes things happen after hours that you can take amazing advantage of and, with President Trump – we look forward to LOTS of those things happening on a regular basis!  Image result for trump emoji

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Phil's Favorites

My Podcast with Patrick O' Shaughnessy


My Podcast with Patrick O’ Shaughnessy

Courtesy of 

This is some of the most fun I’ve ever had doing an interview – my friend Patrick O’Shaughnessy, of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, has a rockin’ new podcast with a dozen or so great interviews already live.

I spoke with Patrick about my comic book origin story, my top 5 emcees alive or dead, my biggest influences and how we learned what not to do in building Ritholtz Wealth Management.

I want to thank Patrick for having me on, really enjoyed the experience and the feedback for our chat has been amazing so far. Hit the link below to jump over and I hope you enjoy too!


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Zero Hedge

Immigration Hard-Liners Question Trump's Homeland Security Pick

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Immigration hard-liners had been routing for Trump to appoint Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach as head of the Department of Homeland Security.  Kobach was generally viewed as the candidate most likely to draw the hardest line on illegal immigration after helping to draft one of the toughest pieces of immigration law in the country, Arizona's SB 1070, which requires law enforcement officers to demand to see the immigration papers of anyone they suspected of being in the country illegally.

By choosing Marine General John Kelly, immigration experts fear that the Trump administration w...

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What Business Models Have Float?

By SC Messina Capital. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Most people know Warren Buffett as a stock picker but few understand his deep affinity for businesses that have float. Below, we will look at some businesses that have access to float.

Check out ValueWalk’s exclusive quarterly magazine on under the radar small caps which feature S&C Capital recently

Feel free to take a look at this no obligation teaser. And if you want to buy the last issue, sign up for a whole year, or just find out more about what&...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Indexes Rise to Records as Bond Rout Eases Ahead of the ECB (Bloomberg)

U.S. stock benchmarks jumped the most in a month, powering to fresh records as the bond selloff eased, fueling demand for dividend-yielding equities amid mounting speculation the European Central Bank will extend its asset-buying program.

Goldman Tells Stock Pickers to Rejoice as Correlations Decline (Bloomberg)

America’s bull market in equities has been tough on active managers who have ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks testing "Triple" breakout level right now

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Most quality rallies in stocks, have historically seen banks come along for the ride. Up until a couple of months ago, Banks had been a disappointment to many, as they had lagged the broad market for the prior 18 months.

Below looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past decade and why the Power of the Pattern, feels banks have an important “Breakout Test” in play at this time!



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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the 'too big to fail' Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But....

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the marke...

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Members' Corner

Trump, Meet The New Boss?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Over at Philstockworld... High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits... 

StJL - "Once again, I think that the middle class voters who turned in great numbers for Trump will soon realize that they voted against their best economic interest. Trump will only be part of the equation – the GOP Congress can't wait to weaken the social safety nets that are so needed by the same people who are so happy today. But too late now I guess"
No surprises here as all along we maintained the memory of what happened in 2000. With that fresh in mind, rather than forgotten in the past, we knew that given the indoctrination of the electorate, anything was possible and history keeps repeating itself...

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Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!


Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas


Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>