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Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last Wednesday’s FOMC minutes confirmed investor expectations by indicating that economic data does not yet warrant a fed funds rate hike in June, and investors took this as a reason to finally break out above stubborn technical resistance. Both PMI manufacturing and the Philly Fed index came in with readings that show some growth, but below expectations. The 4-week average on jobless claims fell to 266,000, which is quite promising. Equities remain the favored asset class this year, particularly those playing catch-up, like China, Japan, Europe — and even emerging markets.

It now has been almost three years since the market pulled back at least 10%. Nevertheless, bulls are having a hard time gaining traction after this latest technical breakout (basically flat-lining after last Monday), and a test of conviction is sure to come. The psychological thresholds of Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200 all must hold as support levels, or we are back to the market churn, searching for a new catalyst.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. fear gauge, closed Friday at 12.13 and has held below the 15 fear threshold since a brief spike to that level back on May 6-7. In addition, the volatility of volatility (i.e., the VVIX) reached its lowest level since July 2014. In fact, ConvergEx points out that the expected volatility has fallen over the last month for a range of equities including U.S. small caps, emerging markets, and 8 of 10…
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Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

All the major indexes are back comfortably above their psychological thresholds, including Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200. And yet most of the U.S. economic reports lately have been surprisingly weak. Consumer sentiment fell to 88.6, industrial production fell for the fifth straight month (mainly due to the energy, mining and utilities segments), capacity utilization declined to 78.2%, consumer comfort index fell yet again, wholesale prices (PPI) tumbled, and April retail sales disappointed.

On the other hand, it must be said that “core” retail sales (x-autos, building materials, and gasoline) actually rose and March sales were revised upward to +1.1%. Also, the Federal budget deficit fell, overall debt levels continue to improve, the US dollar has receded from its recent highs, employment and wages are improving, public companies continue to reduce operating costs and leverage while boosting free cash flow; and Q1 corporate earnings reports have largely beat reduced expectations. Also worth noting, in April the U.S. Treasury Department reported an all-time monthly record of $288 billion in individual income tax payments (indicating that people are making more money and were under-withholding).


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Sector Detector: Bulls hold the line as market coils in anticipation of a bigger move

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

After posting record highs the previous week, stocks closed last week slightly down overall. But the major indexes held their psychological levels, including Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200. Although the bulls continue to find reliable support levels nearby, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral-to-defensive rankings in our SectorCast fundamentals-based quant model continue to suggest that a major upside breakout is not quite imminent, although a selloff doesn’t seem to be in the cards, either. Overall, stocks appear to be coiling ever tighter while awaiting a catalyst. Earnings season hasn’t provided it, so it might not come until the June meeting of the FOMC.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Net-net, the various economic reports last week were taken positively. Q1 GDP report indeed came in quite weak at an annualized +0.2%, but it was evidently already priced in and fully expected, with expectations for grand improvement going forward. The ISM Manufacturing report on Friday came in at 51.5 (unchanged from prior month), and New Orders rose to 53.5. Positive economic reports from Japan and China helped the bulls’ cause, with inflation rising in Japan during March and China showing some growth in both manufacturing and services sectors. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April was 95.9 (versus 93 in March). And first-time applicants for unemployment fell to the lowest in 15 years.

Here are some other noteworthy observations. Last year, S&P 500 companies spent 95% of their operating margins on buybacks and dividends, and this year, stock buybacks and dividends will surpass a record $1 trillion. Also, ETFGI reports that total assets invested in the global ETF/ETP industry will surpass assets in the global hedge fund industry during the current calendar quarter (both are currently around $2.9 trillion).…
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Sector Detector: Sector rotation model stays bullish, but neutral rankings and technical resistance flash caution

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, stocks cycled bullish yet again. In fact, the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and NASDAQ each closed at record highs as investors positioned for the heart of earnings season in the wake of strong reports from some of the Tech giants. Notably, Utilities stocks got some renewed traction as yield-starved investors returned to the sector. Although our trend-following sector rotation model remains bullish, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral rankings in our SectorCast quant model indicate that caution is in order, and this might not be the moment for a major upside breakout, particularly given the expected softness in earnings reports.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

The previous record high for the NASDAQ of 5049 was hit on March 10, 2000, and now 15 years later, it has finally eclipsed the high — but with much more reasonable valuation multiples. And it was the old-guard leadership from that former heyday that has set the tone, with Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) all putting out strong reports with successful initiatives outside of their traditional business models. There is also the expectation that the US dollar, which is up nearly 28% since last May’s low, is set to weaken a bit, which would give a much needed boost to corporate earnings.

But it is international markets that have performed the best this year, as they can avoid the headwinds that U.S. companies are facing with the strong U.S. dollar and slow sales and earnings growth. Looking beyond Europe and Japan, the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) is up 36% YTD, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) is up 25% (on the back of ultra high multiples and leverage, and Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) is up 18%.

A variety of…
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Sector Detector: Earnings and GDP temporarily take investor spotlight off the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

As we get into the heart of earnings season and anticipate the GDP report for Q1, the investor spotlight has been taken off the Federal Reserve and timing of its first interest rate hike, at least temporarily. Even though Q1 economic growth will undoubtedly look weak, the future remains bright for the U.S economy – even though many multinationals will struggle with top-line growth due to the strong dollar – and any near-term selloff resulting from weak economic or earnings news should be bought yet again in expectation of better results for the balance of the year. High sector correlations remain a concern, reflecting herd-like risk-on/risk-off behavior rather than thoughtful stock-picking.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Similar to Q1 2014, it appears that severe winter weather in the US is going to reveal its harsh impact on Q1 economic activity, which is likely to show economic growth near zero or even negative. GDP is scheduled to be released on April 29. Other negative factors include cutbacks in Energy sector spending, the West Coast port slowdown, and the strong dollar.  Already, we have seen consumer spending flat or declining in December, January, and February, jobs growth has slowed, and U.S. retail sales had its worst 3-month performance since 2009. Nevertheless, most economists are still forecasting positive growth, so investors might decide to sell first and let the dust settle if/when bad numbers are actually released.

With the reduced expectation for corporate earnings, the S&P 500 has a forward valuation that has reach about 17x. Moreover, the CAPE (cyclically-adjusted P/E) has reach about 28x, which is the highest since the pre-meltdown years of 1928 and 2007.

Of course, the 10-year US Treasury bond was yielding around 4.5% in July 2007, whereas it…
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Sector Detector: Stocks grind into neutral, hoping to find a new catalyst in earnings season

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In the ongoing bad-news-is-good-news saga, last week’s surprisingly weak jobs report led to speculation that the Fed would delay hiking interest rates, which is perceived as a positive for equity investors. So, bulls are getting a boost for the moment, although those previously hard-won round-number price levels for the major indexes are now serving as ominous overhead resistance that will likely require a strong new catalyst to break through. Whether stocks are destined for downside or upside from here, Q1 earnings season starts this week and will likely provide the catalyst.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

The major market indexes continue to toil below recent support-turned-resistance thresholds, including S&P 500 2,100, Dow Jones Industrials 18,000, and NASDAQ 5,000. The holiday-shortened week started out with a bang on Monday, but then drifted lower in anticipation of the jobs report on Friday and this week’s start to earnings season and the Q1 reports. As it turned out, Labor Department data for March showed that U.S. employers added the fewest jobs in over a year, with only 126,000 jobs versus expectations of 245,000, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%.

Heading into Q1 earnings season, the bar has been lowered considerably. According to S&P Capital IQ, S&P 500 companies are expected to post earnings growth of -3.0% Q1 2015, which would be the first decline since Q3 2009. Revenues are expected to fall -1.3% in Q1 2015 due to the strong dollar and weak commodity prices. Among the 101 S&P 500 companies that pre-announced their earnings guidance, 85 offered negative outlooks while only 16 were positive. Moreover, only five of the ten U.S. business sectors are expected to report positive Q1 2015 earnings growth, with Financial, Healthcare, and Consumer Services (Discretionary/Cyclical) the leaders and Energy, Basic Materials, and Utilities the laggards.

As a result, the boo-birds are telling us that the expected economic weakness is the start of a bigger slide (or even a reversal) in the economic recovery. But…
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Sector Detector: Defensive sectors lead hesitant market, but traders honor long-standing bullish support

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, the major indexes fell back below round-number thresholds that had taken a lot of effort to eclipse. There has been an ongoing ebb-and-flow of capital between risk-on and risk-off, including high sector correlations, which is far from ideal. But at the end of it all, the S&P 500 found itself right back on top of long-standing support and poised for a bounce, and Monday’s action proved yet again that bulls are determined to defend their long-standing uptrend line.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last Thursday, semiconductor stocks took a bath, taking the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the overall market down with it, when SanDisk (SNDK) warned that Q1 revenues could be 10% lower than forecast. The S&P 500 lost the 2,100 level, the Dow Jones Industrials lost the 18,000 level, and NASDAQ lost 5,000. But bulls stood firm at their line in the sand on Friday, leading to Monday’s powerful rally.

Many are calling this the most hated and manipulated market in history. But hate has helped prevent the irrational exuberance and subsequent bursting bubble of previous markets, including 1987, 2000, and 2007, in which investors were not only fully invested but also heavily margined. Yes, equities are being bought, but the buying is cautious, hesitant. A good bit of high net worth capital is flowing into real estate, private equity, and hedge funds, which is defensive behavior.

Indeed, as we reach the end of Q1, the top performing sector so far this year has been Healthcare by a wide margin, followed by Consumer Services (Discretionary/Cyclical), and then Telecom. As of Monday’s close, the only other sectors that are positive are Consumer Goods (Staples/Noncyclical) and Utilities. Overall, this is a defensive group.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. fear gauge, closed Friday at 15.07, which is just…
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Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work — “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last week, global equity markets posted their biggest weekly gain in nearly two years. The S&P 500 is back above 2,100, the Dow Jones Industrials is back above 18,000, NASDAQ is above 5,000, and Russell 2000 is at new highs. Even China is performing well. Yes, the bulls are back in control and feasting on bear claws. Risk on.

The big catalyst last week of course was the FOMC announcement that at once removed the word “patient” from their strategy but also indicated some concern about the economy. The committee acknowledged that the strong dollar is hindering GDP growth and inflation. Indeed, recent economic data on retail sales, manufacturing, and home building have all been weak. Investors interpreted this to mean a further delay in raising rates, i.e., bad news is good news. After all, rising rates would only serve to make the dollar even stronger. The most likely scenario seems to be a token rate increase in September, followed by very slow going from there.

The S&P 500 has fluctuated an average of 24 points per session so far this year, which is the largest since December 2011. The dollar is up more than 20% over the past year, while oil prices are still quite low,…
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Sector Detector: Investors find a reason to sell, teeing up a new buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

When I’m in my sales role, I view every prospective client as falling into one of two broad baskets: those looking for a reason to say yes, and those looking for a reason to say no. I always try to focus on the former and spend little time on the latter. Likewise, last week’s market was dominated by those looking for a reason to sell. And so they did. Good news in the jobs and unemployment reports spooked investors on Friday, and stocks fell hard. So, for the moment we are back to a Fed-driven good-news-is-bad-news story line, or so it would seem. However, the real story is that when markets are overbought and hitting new highs on declining volume, investors look for any catalyst to take profits. But make no mistake, all signs point to more upside in U.S. equities. Bulls will simply wait for the moment when investors are again looking for a reason to buy. As the overbought conditions are relieved, that time will arrive once again.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Today is the 6-year anniversary of this persistent bull market, which many commentators deem as too long with a major selloff imminent. But bull markets don’t die of old age. The economy has been slow but steady in gaining traction, and cautious investors continue to worry about things like bull traps, global economic malaise, rising terrorism, and a strong dollar (hitting the earnings of multinationals). So, there are no signs of overheating in this economic recovery. And with supportive central banks keeping the liquidity flowing and interest rates low, there is still plenty of cash on the sidelines seeking better returns.

Q4 earnings season is about to wrap up, and total S&P 500 EPS indicates about 7.8% growth over last year. Healthcare, Technology, and Consumer Services/Discretionary/Cyclical have been the leading sectors,…
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Sector Detector: Stocks break out again but may be running on fumes

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite low trading volume, a strong dollar, mixed economic and earnings reports, paralyzing weather conditions throughout much of the U.S., and ominous global news events, stocks continue to march ever higher. The world remains on edge about potential Black Swan events from the likes of Russia, Greece, or ISIS (or lone wolf extremists). Moreover, the economic recovery of the U.S. may be feeling the pull of the proverbial ball-and-chain from the rest of the world’s economies. Nevertheless, awash in investable cash, global investors see few choices better than U.S. equities.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Happy days are here again, or so the U.S. stock market would have us believe, as all major indices are hitting or challenging new highs. The S&P 500 long ago eclipsed the 2000 mark and is now holding above 2100. The Dow Jones Industrials is solidly above 18,000. Even small caps and mid caps have joined the new-high party. The NASDAQ, which hasn’t challenged its Internet-bubble high of 5,048 in 15 years, managed to close Monday above 5,000 and seems determined to make its own new high — perhaps this week. As a reminder, next Monday, the bull market will reach its 6-year anniversary.

Stock buybacks and M&A continue at a robust pace, even though these aren’t the most popular uses of cash reserves among activist investors, who tend to prefer capital expenditures, hiring, and increased dividends. Nevertheless, the market has applauded some recent M&A that involved some of our top stock picks. Last week, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which is in Sabrient’s annual Baker’s Dozen top picks list this year, spiked +14% after announcing it would acquire former Sabrient favorite Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP), which 16 months ago bought another of our former favorites Santarus. Then today, NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), which has been in three consecutive Baker’s Dozen top picks lists, announced it will acquire Freescale Semiconductor (FSL), which is also highly ranked in our system. NXPI was up over +17% for the day.


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Zero Hedge

Creator Of Infamous "Hope" Poster Lashes Out At Obama, Calls Americans "Ignorant And Lazy"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Before the people realized that behind the "most transparent administration ever" there was nothing but double seasonal adjustments, drones and an impenetrable layer of propaganda and lies, there was...

And change, of course.

Sadly, at some point over the past six years the hope died, first for the people (if not the bankers), and then for the creator of the infamous "Hope" poster himself, Shepard Fairey who told ...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Putting Economic Models in Their Place (Brad DeLong, Project Syndicate)

When policymakers turn to economists for guidance, they expect the advice they receive to be grounded in science, not academic factionalism or political presuppositions. After all, the policies they will be putting in place will have real implications for real people. Unfortunately, however, sound science is not always the driving force behind economic analysis and policy recommendations.

In a recent critique of what he calls the “mathiness” of modern economics, Paul M. Romer of...



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Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 29, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

It was quite a volatile week and indexes closed it off on a sour note as the S&P 500 fell 0.63% and NASDAQ 0.55%.  For the month of May the S&P 500 gained 1.05% while the NASDAQ added 2.6%.   Greece was again the focus – perhaps next week some eyes will return to economic data as the first week of the month is chock full of reports.   Consumer sentiment showed a final read of 90.7 for May, the lowest since November and below April’s 95.9 print.  A gauge today showed Chicago-area manufacturing activity contracted this month to its lowest level since February, raising concerns that the rebound from a weak first quarter lacks vitality.

Tuesday’s selloff led to a bull flag failure and despite the immediate bounce back Wednesday, this failure has stayed intact.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 – Is it repeating the 2000 & 2007 topping pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Could the S&P 500 be pulling a repeat of the 2000-2007 topping process?

The chart above reflects that the tops in 2000 & 2007 were 7 years and 7 months apart. Is it possible that another top is taking place 7 years and 7 months from the 2007 high? As the S&P is facing this potential time window repeating pattern, it is also staring the Fibonacci 161% Extension resistance level based upon the 2007 highs and 2009 lows, at the top of a rising wedge.

Is the S&P the only market facing a breakout test? The chart below takes a look at the white hot DAX index.

...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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