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Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last week, the Fed sounded a predictably dovish tone while removing some of the uncertainty about their intentions on the fed funds rate, while investors seem to be coming to terms with the relatively low impact of any Greek outcome. As a result, stocks made another breakout attempt, led by the Healthcare sector and in particular biotech, with the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB) rising 3.1% on Thursday, as well as a tepid breakout in the small and mid caps. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 2.27%, as the Fed’s dovish tone brought back global investors.

Stocks have enjoyed the benefit of the double benefit of rising corporate earnings and falling interest rates (and rising liquidity). But if rising wages cut into profits, and interest rates start to creep up, the fear is that asset prices will be capped and stocks will suffer. But the fear is that raising rates high enough to make a difference to interest-hungry investors and retirees would cap (or even collapse) asset prices. Thus, any sign that the Fed will keep it slow with rate hikes is well received.


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Sector Detector: Bulls may be getting ready to push stocks higher

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

After a brief pullback to retest support levels, it appears that bulls may be preparing to take the market higher. Although retail investors are still hesitant, risk-taking among institutions is apparent. Cheap cash from abundant global liquidity is hungry for higher returns. Margin debt is high. Credit spreads are low. Subprime loans are back in vogue. Small caps and the banking sector in particular look ready to resume a leadership role.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

After last week’s strong jobs report (coming in 25% above expectations), Treasury yields spiked, the dollar strengthened, and dividend stocks took a hit while growth stocks held up, particularly the NASDAQ, mid caps, and small caps. Market commentators of course have expressed a wide range of views ranging from cautious optimism to outright collapse. For example, Goldman Sachs’s chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin just announced a prediction that the S&P 500 will finish the year around current levels as the market simply treads water and relies upon dividends for further returns.

Some of the dominant concerns include the fact that total margin debt is at record levels, hitting $507 billion in mid-April, and while the major indexes have been hitting record highs, breadth is narrow (NYSE Composite has not challenged its high), GDP growth has shrunk, unit labor costs have surged, and corporate profits have struggled.

Of course, the strong dollar has been blamed as a prime culprit for hindering profits. However, the U.S. economy overall has enjoyed a net benefit from the strong dollar, with low oil and gasoline prices, affordable imports and overseas travel, and foreign investors flocking to the safety, yield, and bullish trend of the dollar. Nevertheless, although companies appear to be doing some hiring, they continue to be reluctant to make much in the way of new capital investment in PP&E.

As a result, 95% of profits at S&P 500 stocks last year were used for stock buybacks or dividends. In April, $133 billion of…
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Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last Wednesday’s FOMC minutes confirmed investor expectations by indicating that economic data does not yet warrant a fed funds rate hike in June, and investors took this as a reason to finally break out above stubborn technical resistance. Both PMI manufacturing and the Philly Fed index came in with readings that show some growth, but below expectations. The 4-week average on jobless claims fell to 266,000, which is quite promising. Equities remain the favored asset class this year, particularly those playing catch-up, like China, Japan, Europe — and even emerging markets.

It now has been almost three years since the market pulled back at least 10%. Nevertheless, bulls are having a hard time gaining traction after this latest technical breakout (basically flat-lining after last Monday), and a test of conviction is sure to come. The psychological thresholds of Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200 all must hold as support levels, or we are back to the market churn, searching for a new catalyst.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. fear gauge, closed Friday at 12.13 and has held below the 15 fear threshold since a brief spike to that level back on May 6-7. In addition, the volatility of volatility (i.e., the VVIX) reached its lowest level since July 2014. In fact, ConvergEx points out that the expected volatility has fallen over the last month for a range of equities including U.S. small caps, emerging markets, and 8 of 10…
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Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

All the major indexes are back comfortably above their psychological thresholds, including Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200. And yet most of the U.S. economic reports lately have been surprisingly weak. Consumer sentiment fell to 88.6, industrial production fell for the fifth straight month (mainly due to the energy, mining and utilities segments), capacity utilization declined to 78.2%, consumer comfort index fell yet again, wholesale prices (PPI) tumbled, and April retail sales disappointed.

On the other hand, it must be said that “core” retail sales (x-autos, building materials, and gasoline) actually rose and March sales were revised upward to +1.1%. Also, the Federal budget deficit fell, overall debt levels continue to improve, the US dollar has receded from its recent highs, employment and wages are improving, public companies continue to reduce operating costs and leverage while boosting free cash flow; and Q1 corporate earnings reports have largely beat reduced expectations. Also worth noting, in April the U.S. Treasury Department reported an all-time monthly record of $288 billion in individual income tax payments (indicating that people are making more money and were under-withholding).


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Sector Detector: Bulls hold the line as market coils in anticipation of a bigger move

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

After posting record highs the previous week, stocks closed last week slightly down overall. But the major indexes held their psychological levels, including Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200. Although the bulls continue to find reliable support levels nearby, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral-to-defensive rankings in our SectorCast fundamentals-based quant model continue to suggest that a major upside breakout is not quite imminent, although a selloff doesn’t seem to be in the cards, either. Overall, stocks appear to be coiling ever tighter while awaiting a catalyst. Earnings season hasn’t provided it, so it might not come until the June meeting of the FOMC.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Net-net, the various economic reports last week were taken positively. Q1 GDP report indeed came in quite weak at an annualized +0.2%, but it was evidently already priced in and fully expected, with expectations for grand improvement going forward. The ISM Manufacturing report on Friday came in at 51.5 (unchanged from prior month), and New Orders rose to 53.5. Positive economic reports from Japan and China helped the bulls’ cause, with inflation rising in Japan during March and China showing some growth in both manufacturing and services sectors. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April was 95.9 (versus 93 in March). And first-time applicants for unemployment fell to the lowest in 15 years.

Here are some other noteworthy observations. Last year, S&P 500 companies spent 95% of their operating margins on buybacks and dividends, and this year, stock buybacks and dividends will surpass a record $1 trillion. Also, ETFGI reports that total assets invested in the global ETF/ETP industry will surpass assets in the global hedge fund industry during the current calendar quarter (both are currently around $2.9 trillion).…
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Sector Detector: Sector rotation model stays bullish, but neutral rankings and technical resistance flash caution

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, stocks cycled bullish yet again. In fact, the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and NASDAQ each closed at record highs as investors positioned for the heart of earnings season in the wake of strong reports from some of the Tech giants. Notably, Utilities stocks got some renewed traction as yield-starved investors returned to the sector. Although our trend-following sector rotation model remains bullish, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral rankings in our SectorCast quant model indicate that caution is in order, and this might not be the moment for a major upside breakout, particularly given the expected softness in earnings reports.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

The previous record high for the NASDAQ of 5049 was hit on March 10, 2000, and now 15 years later, it has finally eclipsed the high — but with much more reasonable valuation multiples. And it was the old-guard leadership from that former heyday that has set the tone, with Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) all putting out strong reports with successful initiatives outside of their traditional business models. There is also the expectation that the US dollar, which is up nearly 28% since last May’s low, is set to weaken a bit, which would give a much needed boost to corporate earnings.

But it is international markets that have performed the best this year, as they can avoid the headwinds that U.S. companies are facing with the strong U.S. dollar and slow sales and earnings growth. Looking beyond Europe and Japan, the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) is up 36% YTD, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) is up 25% (on the back of ultra high multiples and leverage, and Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) is up 18%.

A variety of…
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Sector Detector: Earnings and GDP temporarily take investor spotlight off the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

As we get into the heart of earnings season and anticipate the GDP report for Q1, the investor spotlight has been taken off the Federal Reserve and timing of its first interest rate hike, at least temporarily. Even though Q1 economic growth will undoubtedly look weak, the future remains bright for the U.S economy – even though many multinationals will struggle with top-line growth due to the strong dollar – and any near-term selloff resulting from weak economic or earnings news should be bought yet again in expectation of better results for the balance of the year. High sector correlations remain a concern, reflecting herd-like risk-on/risk-off behavior rather than thoughtful stock-picking.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Similar to Q1 2014, it appears that severe winter weather in the US is going to reveal its harsh impact on Q1 economic activity, which is likely to show economic growth near zero or even negative. GDP is scheduled to be released on April 29. Other negative factors include cutbacks in Energy sector spending, the West Coast port slowdown, and the strong dollar.  Already, we have seen consumer spending flat or declining in December, January, and February, jobs growth has slowed, and U.S. retail sales had its worst 3-month performance since 2009. Nevertheless, most economists are still forecasting positive growth, so investors might decide to sell first and let the dust settle if/when bad numbers are actually released.

With the reduced expectation for corporate earnings, the S&P 500 has a forward valuation that has reach about 17x. Moreover, the CAPE (cyclically-adjusted P/E) has reach about 28x, which is the highest since the pre-meltdown years of 1928 and 2007.

Of course, the 10-year US Treasury bond was yielding around 4.5% in July 2007, whereas it…
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Sector Detector: Stocks grind into neutral, hoping to find a new catalyst in earnings season

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In the ongoing bad-news-is-good-news saga, last week’s surprisingly weak jobs report led to speculation that the Fed would delay hiking interest rates, which is perceived as a positive for equity investors. So, bulls are getting a boost for the moment, although those previously hard-won round-number price levels for the major indexes are now serving as ominous overhead resistance that will likely require a strong new catalyst to break through. Whether stocks are destined for downside or upside from here, Q1 earnings season starts this week and will likely provide the catalyst.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

The major market indexes continue to toil below recent support-turned-resistance thresholds, including S&P 500 2,100, Dow Jones Industrials 18,000, and NASDAQ 5,000. The holiday-shortened week started out with a bang on Monday, but then drifted lower in anticipation of the jobs report on Friday and this week’s start to earnings season and the Q1 reports. As it turned out, Labor Department data for March showed that U.S. employers added the fewest jobs in over a year, with only 126,000 jobs versus expectations of 245,000, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%.

Heading into Q1 earnings season, the bar has been lowered considerably. According to S&P Capital IQ, S&P 500 companies are expected to post earnings growth of -3.0% Q1 2015, which would be the first decline since Q3 2009. Revenues are expected to fall -1.3% in Q1 2015 due to the strong dollar and weak commodity prices. Among the 101 S&P 500 companies that pre-announced their earnings guidance, 85 offered negative outlooks while only 16 were positive. Moreover, only five of the ten U.S. business sectors are expected to report positive Q1 2015 earnings growth, with Financial, Healthcare, and Consumer Services (Discretionary/Cyclical) the leaders and Energy, Basic Materials, and Utilities the laggards.

As a result, the boo-birds are telling us that the expected economic weakness is the start of a bigger slide (or even a reversal) in the economic recovery. But…
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Sector Detector: Defensive sectors lead hesitant market, but traders honor long-standing bullish support

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, the major indexes fell back below round-number thresholds that had taken a lot of effort to eclipse. There has been an ongoing ebb-and-flow of capital between risk-on and risk-off, including high sector correlations, which is far from ideal. But at the end of it all, the S&P 500 found itself right back on top of long-standing support and poised for a bounce, and Monday’s action proved yet again that bulls are determined to defend their long-standing uptrend line.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last Thursday, semiconductor stocks took a bath, taking the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the overall market down with it, when SanDisk (SNDK) warned that Q1 revenues could be 10% lower than forecast. The S&P 500 lost the 2,100 level, the Dow Jones Industrials lost the 18,000 level, and NASDAQ lost 5,000. But bulls stood firm at their line in the sand on Friday, leading to Monday’s powerful rally.

Many are calling this the most hated and manipulated market in history. But hate has helped prevent the irrational exuberance and subsequent bursting bubble of previous markets, including 1987, 2000, and 2007, in which investors were not only fully invested but also heavily margined. Yes, equities are being bought, but the buying is cautious, hesitant. A good bit of high net worth capital is flowing into real estate, private equity, and hedge funds, which is defensive behavior.

Indeed, as we reach the end of Q1, the top performing sector so far this year has been Healthcare by a wide margin, followed by Consumer Services (Discretionary/Cyclical), and then Telecom. As of Monday’s close, the only other sectors that are positive are Consumer Goods (Staples/Noncyclical) and Utilities. Overall, this is a defensive group.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. fear gauge, closed Friday at 15.07, which is just…
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Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work — “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Last week, global equity markets posted their biggest weekly gain in nearly two years. The S&P 500 is back above 2,100, the Dow Jones Industrials is back above 18,000, NASDAQ is above 5,000, and Russell 2000 is at new highs. Even China is performing well. Yes, the bulls are back in control and feasting on bear claws. Risk on.

The big catalyst last week of course was the FOMC announcement that at once removed the word “patient” from their strategy but also indicated some concern about the economy. The committee acknowledged that the strong dollar is hindering GDP growth and inflation. Indeed, recent economic data on retail sales, manufacturing, and home building have all been weak. Investors interpreted this to mean a further delay in raising rates, i.e., bad news is good news. After all, rising rates would only serve to make the dollar even stronger. The most likely scenario seems to be a token rate increase in September, followed by very slow going from there.

The S&P 500 has fluctuated an average of 24 points per session so far this year, which is the largest since December 2011. The dollar is up more than 20% over the past year, while oil prices are still quite low,…
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Zero Hedge

3 Things: Valuations, Employment, Sectors

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

You Can't Handle The Truth

John Coumarianos recently wrote an opinion piece for MarketWatch stating:

"...if you think low interest rates necessitate high stock prices, that wasn't the case in the 1940s when interest rates were low and stock prices were below their long-term average relative to past earnings.

True, we don't know what the market will d...



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Phil's Favorites

Greek Banks Down to Last €500 Million; Vote for Servitude Takes Slight Lead; IMF Says Greece Needs Another €60 Billion Bailout

Courtesy of Mish.

Greece Roundup

  • A "yes" vote in favor of servitude has now reached a slight majority according to some Greece referendum polls. How accurate the polls are is an issue.
  • Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, said he would resign if Greeks voted Yes in Sunday’s referendum on the country’s bailout. "I will not sign another extend and pretend agreement", said Varoufakis.
  • Greece to run out of essential food and medicine within days and banks down to last €500 million.
  • Daily allowance of cash from ATMs has dropped from €60 to €50.
  • Three quarters of business leaders think Greece will be forced to leave the eurozone in the next 12 months.

Vote for Servitude Takes Slight Lead

Reuters reports ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Did the IMF Just Open Pandora's Box? (Zero Hedge)

By now it should be clear to all that the only reason why Germany has been so steadfast in its negotiating stance with Greece is because it knows very well that if it concedes to a public debt reduction (as opposed to haircut on debt held mostly by private entities such as hedge funds which already happened in 2012), then the rest of the PIIGS will come pouring in: first Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, then Ireland.

Baker Hughes rig count rises for the first time in 29 weeks (Business Insider)

The number of US oil rigs in use just rose for the first...



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Chart School

Neutral Day

Courtesy of Declan.

After yesterday's gains there was no more gas in the tank to squeeze any more out of the market. Worryingly, the Russell 2000 finished near Monday's lows in a relative loss to S&P and Nasdaq, suggesting bearish leadership will come from speculative Small Caps, and that further losses are likely. The S&P recovered afternoon losses, but the Spinning Top candlestick of today suggests the advance is slowing, and what may be emerging is a 'bear flag'. In the meantime, the index is caught in a no-mans land between resistance and support. ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shanghai index creates historic reversal pattern like 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Much of the attention around the world seems to be revolving around a small country called Greece. What about the most populated country in the world (China), any key messages coming from there of late?

Well another Month, Quarter and Half a year are in the books. With this in mind I wanted to look at Monthly action of the hottest stock market in the world, the Shanghai Index. Above looks at the Shanghai index over the past 25-years. The 100%+ rally over the past year has pushed the Shanghai index up to its 23% Fibonacci ratio and a long-term resistance line, that has been in play for 25-years at (1) above.

As the Shanghai index was hitting this...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 29th., 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BitGold Now Available in US! Why BitGold?

Courtesy of Mish.

BitGold USA

Effective today, BitGold Announces Platform Launch in the United States.

BitGold, a platform for savings and payments in gold, is pleased to announce the launch of the BitGold platform for residents of the US and US territories. As of today, US residents can sign up on the BitGold platform and buy, sell, or redeem gold using BitGold’s Aurum payment and settlement technology. US residents will also have access to the BitGold mobile app and a prepaid card when these features launch over the coming weeks. Send and receive gold payment features are not initially available in the US.

About BitGold

...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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