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Silver & Small Caps Slump As Bonds & Dollar Jump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

What a difference two days make. After the exuberance of The Fed-day's "dovishness" which was "hawkishness", Small Cap stocks and Transports have given back all their FOMC gains and Treasuries have regained all their losses. Russell 2000 closes near 6-week lows, down 1.0% year-to-date (as Trannies end the week +17.4% YTD) with the S&P and Dow making new record highs. Despite a 1-2% gain for big caps, Treasury yields ended the week lower (30Y -6bps, 10Y -4bps) tumbling 7-10bps from high-to-low today. The USD ended the week +0.75% (10th week in a row) at new multi-year highs led by JPY, AUD, and EUR weakness. Oil was the only commodity holding gains by the close of the week as copper and gold were clubbed in line with the USD gain as Silver was monkey-hammered -4% on the week. BABA closed just above its opening level around $93. Today was also the 2nd Hindenburg Omen in a row.

 

Year-to-Date, Trannies on top; Small Caps on bottom…

 

Since The FOMC, Russell is down and Trannies unch…

 

And Homebuilders worst, Healthcare and financials best post-FOMC…

 

On the week, Russell is the biggest loser…

 

High-Yield credit rallied on the week but as the chart below shows, it is clear that small caps (for now) are struggling as credit markets are less acquiescent than before…

 

But while stocks are broadly higher on the week, bonds also rallied to their low yields of the week…

 

Wondering what drove bonds today? Seems UK nervousness sent money back into safe-havens…

 

FX markets saw more USD strength as JPY and EUR weakness dominated (and then GBP selling today)

 

And so commodities tumbled (oil modestly higher) with Silver getting smashed to 4-year lows…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: BABA closed just above its opening level

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Stocks remain almost record rich to the Fed balance sheet…

 

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: Market internals are in chaos as for the 2nd day in a row, a Hindenburg Omen was triggered…





Exponential: Ebola Cases Now Double Every 3 Weeks; CDC Warns As Much As Half A Million May Be Infected Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Since the start of the outbreak, the Ebola virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to the WHO; and as The UN explains, the outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen with the number of cases is doubling every three weeks. As Sierra Leone instigates a 3-day nationwide shutdown to contain the deadly virus, the UN Secretary-General explains "Ebola matters to us all," as we noted previously the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end. The CDC, however, hot on the heels of the UN's proclamation that "the gravity and scale of the situation now require an unprecedented level of international action," has warned that unless government intervention is increased significantly, 550,000 people could be infected by the end of January. "Contained?"

As The Secretary General of The UN stated

The Ebola crisis has evolved into a complex emergency, with significant political, social, economic, humanitarian and security dimensions.  The suffering and spillover effects in the region and beyond demand the attention of the entire world.  Ebola matters to us all.

 

The outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen.  The number of cases is doubling every three weeks.  There will soon be more cases in Liberia alone than in the four-decade history of the disease.

 

In the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – the disease is destroying health systems.  More people are now dying in Liberia from treatable ailments and common medical conditions than from Ebola.

 

The virus is also taking an economic toll.  Inflation and food prices are rising. Transport and social services are being disrupted.  The situation is especially tragic given the remarkable strides that Liberia and Sierra Leone have made in putting conflict behind them.

 

National governments are doing everything they can.  I applaud the courageous actions of the governments, communities and individuals on the frontlines, including local health workers, Médecins Sans Frontières, the International Federation for the Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN entities.

 

The gravity and scale of the situation now require a level of international action unprecedented for a health emergency.

Sierra Leone has instigated a 3-day nationwide shutdown to try and contain the spread of the virus…


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Was Scottish Vote Rigging Caught On Tape?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Given the pre-vote polls and 300 years of historical resentment, many were somewhat surprised at the overwhelming "No" vote in last night's Scottish Independence referendum. While we now know that the vote broke very cleanly between old ("no") and young ("yes") Scots, the following clip suggests the possibility that more was afoot than that. As the commentator blasts, "Busted! Absolutely busted!" You decide…

 

 

As Martin Armstrong rages, Is anything real anymore…

I have communicated directly with some Scots. I spoke to an 18 year segment to get a perspective of the youth. They used the word that they wanted a “REVOLUTION” and feel very betrayed by what they called the over “65″ crowd. This is what our model has been warning about and why this is important. Unfunded liabilities are around the global as populations enter the retirement age of the baby-boomers worldwide – post-World War II surge in births. The birth rate and marriage rate has been declining, efforts are building around the globe to encourage women to have children. In Britain, the NHS is funding a sperm bank for lesbians.Just for starters, Germany, Japan, Russia, and Taiwan are paying women to have children and the list keeps going. Why? What happened to over population? The older generation is dying off and the social programs are gauging the younger generation causing taxation to rise and the youth cannot find work.

Camerob-9-19-2014

David Cameron basically said reading between the lines – the younger generation lost and their fate is now settled “for a generation.” This degree of arrogance is not going to be helpful. Governments will not reform and that brings us only to the bring of our right civil unrest that will rip the systems apart. No one in charge will address the long-term. They are only concerned about one vote at a time.

Now the recriminations. There is a rising tide among the YES camp that view the Scottish vote was rigged. There are videos and photographs emerging calling the votes rigged. There is special focus on Dundee where photos are circulating on Twitter and Facebook demonstrating the rigging of the election. The polling stations also accused were directly in Edinburgh. This will be like Bush stealing the election in the USA and it will linger causing tremendous…
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Exponential: Ebola Cases Now Double Every 3 Weeks; CDC Warns As Many As Half A Million May Be Infected Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Since the start of the outbreak, the Ebola virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to the WHO; and as The UN explains, the outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen with the number of cases is doubling every three weeks. As Sierra Leone instigates a 3-day nationwide shutdown to contain the deadly virus, the UN Secretary-General explains "Ebola matters to us all," as we noted previously the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end. The CDC, however, hot on the heels of the UN's proclamation that "the gravity and scale of the situation now require an unprecedented level of international action," has warned that unless government intervention is increased significantly, 550,000 people could be infected by the end of January. "Contained?"

As The Secretary General of The UN stated

The Ebola crisis has evolved into a complex emergency, with significant political, social, economic, humanitarian and security dimensions.  The suffering and spillover effects in the region and beyond demand the attention of the entire world.  Ebola matters to us all.

 

The outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen.  The number of cases is doubling every three weeks.  There will soon be more cases in Liberia alone than in the four-decade history of the disease.

 

In the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – the disease is destroying health systems.  More people are now dying in Liberia from treatable ailments and common medical conditions than from Ebola.

 

The virus is also taking an economic toll.  Inflation and food prices are rising. Transport and social services are being disrupted.  The situation is especially tragic given the remarkable strides that Liberia and Sierra Leone have made in putting conflict behind them.

 

National governments are doing everything they can.  I applaud the courageous actions of the governments, communities and individuals on the frontlines, including local health workers, Médecins Sans Frontières, the International Federation for the Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN entities.

 

The gravity and scale of the situation now require a level of international action unprecedented for a health emergency.

Sierra Leone has instigated a 3-day nationwide shutdown to try and contain the spread of the virus…


continue reading





This Pension Fund Is Daytrading Your Retirement Funds, With Up To 500% Leverage

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While we have already noted the backlash against hedge funds as a result of their chronic underperformance of the market over the past 5 years, resulting in first Calpers and now Texas Pensions to pull money out of the asset class, the reality is that in a micro-managed world in which the Fed itself is the Chief Risk Officer of the S&P 500, there is no need to actively manage assets – after all the money printer itself is doing so on behalf of everyone. However, it is not just highly paid hedge funds – paid highly to hedge risk which simply does not exist until such time as central banks lose control – but pension, mutual and virtually every other class of actively managed money will underperform the S&P as long as the central banks are actively pushing asset values higher (and when they stop watch out below because no amount of shorts or puts will offset the carnage that will result).

And yet some, such as Pension funds, have a specific bogey they have to hit every single year, in order to maintain a mandated increase in their assets or else suffer the wrath of disgruntled pensioners and overseers.

Which probably explains why as Pension360 reports, the Chief Investment Officer of one such pension fund decided to do the unthinkable: daytrade, i.e. gamble, its assets, which happen to be the lifetime savings of hard workers who just happen to be naive enough to believe their retirement money is entrusted into safe hands. Little did they know that instead they have handed the fruit of their lives’ labor over to the E-trade baby.

And if that was not bad enough, the CIO intends to use as much as 500% leverage. While daytrading.

Here is Pension360.org‘s account

There are few, if any, pension board meetings as drama-filled as the ones that have taken place this month at the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association (SDCERA).

The fund’s trustees have been debating a strategy allowing extensive use of leverage in the fund’s investments. Such a strategy was proposed to increase the fund’s below-average investment returns. But if it backfires, it could evaporate the fund’s assets.

The man behind the plan is outsourced chief investment officer Lee Partridge, to whom the…
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Did The Bottom Just Fall Out Of Commodities?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Global growth expectations… we have a problem. With all eyes focused on BABA, Treasury yields, and Russell 2000 death-crosses, the old equally-weighted CRB commodity index has broken down through support to 4-year lows this morning

 

 

Commodities have slipped notably since confirming their own death cross in August.

Chart: Bloomberg

h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge





Anarchy In Washington: Is Anybody In Charge?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Justin Raimondo via Antiwar.com,

The President pledges "no combat troops" in Iraq.

The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, says he may recommend combat ground troops in the battle against ISIS.

The President, in a speech, reiterates "no ground troops," and "no combat troops."

While Hillary Clinton, Obama’s presumptive heir, waits in the wings as her scheme to arm the Syrian rebels is implemented and the fuse is lit on the Levantine tinderbox. It isn’t a very long fuse….

So what is going on with the US government, and especially over at the Pentagon? Are they directly challenging the President – who is then acting to quickly quash them? Sure looks like it.

Amid reports of a titanic battle within the Obama administration, the conflicting messages being put out there by various wings of the national security establishment remind us of the Empire’s sheer size and the scale of the bureaucracy: it is large enough to constitute what are, in effect, competing governments – a condition statists of every variety always told us was unworkable.

In short, when it comes to the making of American foreign policy what we have in Washington is what appears to be the functional definition of anarchy! And the libertarians haven’t even taken over yet.

The mess that is the Obama plan for defeating ISIS perfectly illustrates the central dictum of what I call "libertarian realism" – a theory of international relations that attributes foreign policy decision-making to primarily domestic political pressures, i.e. to the chief motivation of politicians everywhere, which is to maintain and expand their own power and their own term in office. The result is that US policy – or, indeed, the foreign policy of any nation – has little to do with facts on the ground, or how to utilize them to serve legitimate national interests. Instead, it’s all about how to appease the various domestic pressure groups with a stake in the matter.

This is why war propaganda is such a vital component of modern warfare, arguably the most important weapon in any country’s arsenal. That’s because the real target is domestic public opinion, with the targeted cities of the enemy only a secondary consideration.

Left with the Iraqi mess…
continue reading





Stocks Slide As Gartman Goes “Long Of One Unit Of The US Equity Market:”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It just never, ever fails. From this morning’s Gartman letter:

SHARE PRICES AROUND THE WORLD ARE STRONGER and the news from Scotland should serve to keep the global bull market intact for markets do indeed disdain confusion and the confusion over the UK’s future has been relieved. All things being otherwise equal, this is supportive of shares generally.

 

Stare then… do not merely look; stare!… at the chart of the S&P at the bottom left of p.1 and try if you will to see anything bearish in that chart.

 

 

The “channel” defining the trend is stunningly well defined; the lows have held time after time after time, and hoping to be as clinically honest as we can be, presently we are but in the middle of this upward sloping channel. Certainly it may end at any time and many have argued that it has time after time in the past, but the trend obtains; the bears are proven wrong and every time we move from bullish to neutral we pay a price for having done so. There is a lesson to be learned here; would that we had learned it.

 

Long of One Unit of the US equity market:

 

To make if official, we were buyers of “aluminium” yesterday, to align our recommendations with those equity positions we have in our retirement fund. We do not name individual equities in TGL, but everyone knows which company here in America we mean. As long as the lows made earlier this week hold we’ll be a buyer and try our best to remain long, with out-of-the-money calls sold against it as a yield enhancement.

In short: best $29.95 one could ever spend.





America’s Big Bet On Natural Gas And Big Short On Coal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Chris Pedersen via OilPrice.com,

America is betting the kitchen sink on natural gas. No matter which estimate you look at — the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, or Wall Street banks — two things are clear: the United States is slated to consume enormous amounts of natural gas and the dominant fuel of electricity generation for the last 50 years, coal, is diminishing.

First, America’s energy darling: natural gas. It is difficult to overstate the effect shale gas production has had on the United States. In 2006, shale gas production accounted for about 5 percent of natural gas production. In 2013, it accounted for roughly 40 percent. As industry leaders clamored to take advantage of the vast supply of newly accessible domestic natural gas, analysts began to forecast longer and longer projections of low natural gas prices. The result is big expectations for natural gas.

The EIA expects natural gas production to grow at a 1.6 percent annual rate from 2012 through 2040, resulting in a dry natural gas production of 23.04 quadrillion BTU in 2013 and a production forecast of 38.37 quadrillion BTU in 2040. Demand will come from residential, commercial, and transportation use, but the largest demand increase will be from the electric power sector, particularly combined cycle power plants. Today, the U.S. has a combined cycle generating capacity of roughly 190 gigawatts. By 2040, capacity is forecasted to increase to approximately 316 gigawatts.

Meanwhile, the outlook for coal continues to appear bleak. This week, the Government Accountability Office released a new report with increased projections for the number of coal plants expected to retire in the coming years. The report estimates that 42,192 megawatts, or 13 percent of coal-fueled summer generating capacity, will retire between 2012 and 2025 as a result of environmental regulations, lower natural gas prices, and decreasing electricity demand. These retirements are on top of the 150 coal-fueled units with a summer generating capacity of 13,786 megawatts that have been retired since 2000.

America’s gamble will not affect everyone in the country equally. Almost 40 percent of the retired coal capacity will take place in in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Fortunately, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and to a lesser degree West Virginia, have economies that will be better prepared for this transition…
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Russell & Trannies Give Up FOMC Gains, Bond Yields Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This is not what Yellen promised! The Russell 2000 (inching ever closer to its death cross) has plunged today and is now -0.8% from pre-FOMC and negative year-to-date.  Dow Transports have also given up all their post-FOMC gains and Homebuilders have plunged. US Treasury yields have tumbled with 30Y now -3bps on the week (and below pre-FOMC levels). The USD is rising as GBP weakness re-emerges.

 

Russell is weak and Trannies have rolled over…

 

Homebuilders are in trouble…

 

As Treasury yields tumble on the week…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

The Silver Paradox In One Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As gold and silver prices tumble to multi-year lows, an odd thing is happening in the 'paper' precious metals ETF markets. Demand remains high for silver ETF exposure as 'someone' is aggressively unwinding gold ETF positions.. and yet the prices for both are falling rapidly. It appears the retail investor is taking advantage of the lower prices in silver to accumulate additional exposure as Credit Suisse notes, "the perception is that silver will do well, and should outperform gold as the economic recovery strengthens," adding that "belief in silver’s dual properties, as a financial asset and also as an industrial metal, appears to remain strong."

  • *SPDR GOLD HOLDINGS TUMBLE 1...


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Chart School

Getting Technical: Weekend Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here's the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Professional Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the U.S. market in a series of weekly charts. Here is his update on the S&P 500.

This week, the S&P 500 remains neutral near a resistance, on above-average volume and on improving momentum.

Click for a sharper image

Note: For newcomers to technical analysis, here are brief explanations for the two key indicators that Serge features:

  • ...


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Phil's Favorites

Idiotic Proposals for Fed to Give Away Money

Courtesy of Mish.

A Fiscal Times, Yahoo Finance article by by John Grgurich claims that Instead of QE, Fed Could Have Given $56,000 to Every Household in America .

Grgurich formulated his article after reading "an intriguing piece just published in Foreign Affairs, Brown University political economist Mark Blyth and London-based hedge fund manager Eric Lonergan argue the Fed could have done better by pursuing a far different type of grand policy experiment."

The "intriguing piece" is Print Less but Transfer More, Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People.

Sheer Idiocy

  • Fir...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

IV Implodes On 4-hour YHOO Options As BABA Commences Trading

Investors are dumping shares in Yahoo, sending the stock down 5.0% to $40.08 after shares in Alibaba made their debut on the floor of the NYSE just before midday. Shares in BABA for their part initially traded up to a high of $99.70, a near 47% increase over the IPO price of $68.00. Typically, one would expect put options that are 5% out of the money with roughly 4-hours left to trade to see waning implied volatility. But, at the start of the trading session and ahead of the first trade for BABA, the Sep 19 ’14 40.0 strike put options were trading with 271% volatility or $0.30 per contract amid uncertainty as to how the start of trading for Alibaba would take shape.

...

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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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Promotions

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls go down swinging, refusing to give up much ground

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Although the stock market displayed weakness last week as I suggested it would, bulls aren’t going down easily. In fact, they’re going down swinging, absorbing most of the blows delivered by hesitant bears. Despite holding up admirably when weakness was both expected and warranted, and although I still see higher highs ahead, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback. A number of signs point to more weakness ahead.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

[Sign in with your PSW user name and password, or take a free trial here.]

Image courtesy of Business Insider, Jay Yarow's This Is The Best Description Of How Apple's Business Works Right Now.

 

...

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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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