by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 7:28 pm
It has been a tough couple of years for Brazil, once the poster child of emerging markets. After unleashing the largest corruption probe in history (involving everyone from large corporate executives to high-ranking politicians), impeaching President Dilma Rousseff and replacing her cabinet for an equally unpopular white-male-only cast led by Michel Temer, and facing the threat of zika amidst the upcoming 2016 Rio Olympics, the slew of negative news continues to strike the largest South American nation.
As detailed by The Intercept, the Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo, and its polling company Datafolha, originally reported that 50% of citizens supported the new government led by Temer, 32% wanted Rousseff reinstated and only 3% wanted new elections.
Shortly after original story was published by Folha de Sao Paulo, the website Tijolaco noticed that the URL to the Datafolha link contained a “v2”, implying that there would likely be a version 1.
Investigators at Tijolaco were able to guess the correct URL for “v1”, which had not been published but remained live in Folha’s server. This version contained evidence that completely contradicted what Folha initially reported. Namely, an overwhelming 62% of Brazilians are in favor of hosting new elections, and not the alleged 3%.
After the story broke, the evidence began to mount that Folha de Sao Paulo had deliberately omitted this information from its published version. When the press questioned the newspaper for its decision, Folha’s executive director Sérgio Dávila stated “the prerogative of the paper [is] to chose what it believes is ‘most journalistically relevant’ when it decides to publish a poll.”
And there you have it. Welcome to a world where the media decides what is relevant for the public based on whether it serves the purposes of the establishment.
Then again, as our readers are well aware, this type of corruption is not an exclusive issue for Brazil. As we have detailed extensively (see Leaked DNC Emails Confirm Democrats Rigged Primary, Reveal Extensive Media Collusion and State Department Admits It Deliberately Cut Video Confirming It Lies To The Public), it seems perhaps that Folha is simply taking a cue from President Obama’s “most transparent administration ever” and feeding the narratives it finds convenient to remain in power.
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 7:20 pm
Forex is a Monopoly, controlled by a small ‘cartel’ of big banks. That’s changing, and changing fast – as a number of non-bank FX participants are replacing the traditional ‘big 12.’ As we explain in Splitting Pennies – the fact remains, if a small group of companies controlled and manipulated the price of any other market, they’d be shut down faster than you can say “Anti-Trust.”
A short list of things that are unique about FX:
- No “Insider Trading” rules. Yes, that’s right! No insider trading rules. Don’t believe it, confirm it.
- Trades 24/5 – no ‘market times’
- People need FX – businesses need currency to operate (People don’t need stocks)
- FX is an openly manipulated market (but, each central bank can only manipulate its own currency)
The most important thing stock traders need to understand about Forex
There’s a phenomenon in FX we can call ultra high latency information arbitrage.
During Brexit, it took the GBP/USD hours to go down, in total more than 20 hours from peak to valley. If you missed the first move down, it was easy to catch the 2nd, or the 3rd, or the 4th. Brexit is the most bright, obvious example but not the only one – it happens nearly every week.
Coup in Turkey? Risk on. Failed coup? Risk off.
In the stock market, when there’s news, not a moment goes by that the market absorbs it. In fact, the information knee-jerk in stocks is so quick and usually so severe, traders have strategies designed to buy into the panic information leak selling.
It’s not possible to trade on information in stocks because it happens so quickly, even if you use algorithms and subscribe to Reuters ‘ultra low latency’ data service, there’s almost no opportunity there. But in FX, it can take the markets tens of hours to absorb PUBLIC information. No one had ‘insider’ knowledge about Brexit. GBP/USD went down slowly, very slowly, over a period of many hours. Spreads widened, but not to levels that would impact trading.
But with FX, there’s good news. You don’t need to own the FX Monopoly, to generate some Monopoly money. But in FX, you can take your profits and spend it in your local shop (Children, don’t try to spend
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 6:40 pm
Outspoken billionaire hedge fund manager Crispin Odey had a good June (+3.9%) in his ‘Swan Fund’ but remains down year-to-date as he continues to refuse to stop fighting The Fed. His latest missive – titled “Doing The Devil’s Work” - lashes out at governments, central banks, and Europe for their desire to ‘stop recession at any price’. As ValueWalk’s Rupert Hargreaves summarizes, Odey blames this desire for the rise of extreme politicians like Trump, the desire for the UK to leave the EU and the lack of global trade growth. He compares this environment to that of the 1970s, when after a period of rapid growth, governments became obsessed with the fact that nothing should be done to endanger employment, giving trade unions all the power and allowing inflation to get out of hand as productivity fell and wage increases became inflationary in a way they had before. This economic stalemate was only broken down by Reagan and Thatcher — politicians willing to take on the unassailable unions and risk higher unemployment.
The UK decided to join the EEC in 1973, just as today it has decided to exit the European Union. Both were difficult times.
The world had enjoyed continuous economic growth from 1945 to 1973 – what the French called the ‘Trente Glorieuses’. But in the 70s, the world trading platform started to stutter and break up. Productivity fell to low levels and what had driven the impetus for growth – the profound desire, after the thirties, to ensure full employment – meant that wage in- creases now became inflationary in a way they hadn’t before. A system which was collectivist in construction – government and big businesses – started to crack, especially after the oil price rose 400% on the back of the Arab / Israeli conflicts. The problem was that governments were obsessed with the fact that nothing should be done to endanger employment and this gave the trade unions all the power and allowed inflation to continue to rise. Just when the communist revolutionaries were expecting the system to break up, capitalism fought back. The problem behind the lack of productivity was that governments were in charge of the show. Let markets dictate asset allocation and society live under a regime of
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 6:14 pm
With everyone now talking about the record gasoline glut, something which we first predicted in February is the “big threat” to oil prices, oil finally succumbed to the unprecedented imbalance in the market, not only on the crude side of the supply-chain, but more importantly in the past month, on the product side, led by both record gasoline stocks as well as soaring Chinese exports of gasoline, distillates and other refined products.
To underscore this point, earlier today Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson – a prominent oil bear – released a note saying that “A refinery-driven correction is upon us.” Some of his key points:
Along with supply disruptions, healthy refinery margins and overly bullish sentiment towards global gasoline helped drive abnormally high crude oil demand in late 2015 and early 2016 – well beyond what product markets required. While such appetite for crude oil helped to improve crude oil statistics in some regions, it simply resulted in a market awash in product, namely gasoline. With inventories above 5Y highs in almost every region, product margins have been falling sharply. This product overhang will weigh on crude oil markets as well, just with a lag. As refinery margins continue to fall, refiners will look to cut back on utilization, leading to lower crude oil demand. Ultimately, this should lead to distressed cargoes, deeper contangos, inventory builds, and lower prices.
Just as bad, the widely anticipated gasoline demand surge, which was supposed to open the gasoline inventories and provide the impetus for the next leg higher in crude oil prices, never happened. In fact, gasoline demand, according to Morgan Stanley is decelerating.
Refined product demand is decelerating, especially in key gasoline and diesel markets. Transportation fuels, and particularly gasoline, are the most valuable products in the barrel, but demand growth shows signs of slowing. China has been a large source of gasoline growth in recent years, yet growth has slowed markedly. Gasoline demand fell 1.8% YoY in May (after growing 12-15% for much of 2015), while diesel fell 11%. Many EM countries responsible for growth are also slowing as lower commodity prices and the removal of oil subsidies crimp demand (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Brazil). The US and India have been
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 5:59 pm
Amid day 5 of a heat wave expected to last through Thursday, local New York electricity generators had been dealing with the increased demand(to help power air-conditioners) until, as Bloomberg reports, the agency that oversees New York’s power system issued issued an alert in advance of a thunderstorm that cut the amount of electricity allowed to be carried across transmission lines feeding the city. This sparked a massive surge in New York electricity prices from $40/MwH to over $1000/MwH.
As Bloomberg details, the grid operator is “worried about lightning hitting between Albany and NYC” and knocking out import lines, said Ben Chamberlain, a Boston-based analyst with Genscape. “More local generation would help, but I think they’re running almost everything already.”
Blue, sunny skies over Manhattan quickly gave way to dark clouds about 4 p.m., followed quickly by sheets of rain, hail and thunder.
The grid operator’s thunderstorm alert issued two hours earlier came after electricity imports from Canada plunged. The New York ISO reported it had four large reserve pickups for seven minutes starting at 1:38 p.m., which Chamberlain said can signal that there was a sudden supply outage.
Power flows on Hydro-Quebec’s Chateauguay high-voltage transmission line that feeds New York dropped to 300 megawatts at 2:10 p.m. from 1,500 megawatts 1:35 p.m., grid and Genscape data show. A spokeswoman for Hydro-Quebec couldn’t be immediately reached for comment.
We can’t help but look at that chart and wonder just how fragile and marginal the power grid really is.
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 5:50 pm
Tim Kaine recently used a rather surprising analogy to explain to Chuck Todd the “reasonable limits” of freedom of speech.
“I can’t take classified information I get as a senator and give it to somebody with no consequence. Freedom of speech has reasonable limits.”
While we certainly appreciate your zeal, Tim, it’s a little early to be angling for the Oval. We’re also big fans of Season 2 of the House of Cards but you would be well-served to remember that the “Underwoods” never lose.
Below is the full interview with Chuck Todd…skip to the 7:00 mark for the fireworks.
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 5:25 pm
Mises Institute: In your new book, you contend that our economic system increases wealth inequality by favoring the wealthy. Can you briefly summarize what you mean by this?
Philipp Bagus: Always when new money is produced, there is a redistribution in favor of those who receive the new money and spend it at the old, still low prices and to the detriment of those who receive the new money later and see prices rise faster than their income. In our fiat money system new money can and is produced at almost zero cost. Those actors, who are in position to receive the new money first benefit. Among them are the government and the financial system. The new money is usually introduced into the market in form of loans. Those, who receive a higher percentage of these loans profit at the cost of those who do not. The super rich have an advantage in this respect. They have an easier access to the new money produced by the banking system in form of loans, because they can offer collateral. They can offer real estate as a collateral for new loans using these loans to buy even more real estate or stocks pushing up prices. A poor person has more difficulties to get a loan in normal times because he does not own assets. Only in dangerous bubble times will he get easy and cheap access to loans. Thus, someone like George Soros may easily give a call to his banker and get a million dollar loan in an instant to buy more assets. A poor or even middle-class person will not get such a million dollar loan so easily, rather they will observe how asset prices are being pushed up and they keep getting relatively poorer. Thus, our fiat monetary system is one often neglected reason for an increasing wealth inequality.
MI: As we all know, if
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 5:07 pm
Mass killings have now become a daily thing. The latest attack however took place not in Europe, nor the US, but Japan, where national broadcaster NHK reports that a knife-wielding man has reportedly gone on a rampage at a facility for people with heart disabilities in the city of Sagamihara, west of Tokyo.
Police say 19 people are confirmed dead and 45 are injured.
According to Tokyo Reporter, at approximately 2:30 a.m. on Tuesday, police received a tip about “a man with a knife” at the Tsukui Yamayuri-en facility in Midori Ward. Officers arriving at the scene confirmed 19 people dead another 45 injured.
About 30 minutes later, a former employee, aged in his 20s, turned himself over to officers at the Sagamihara Police Station. He was subsequently arrested for murder. “I did it,” the man was quoted in admitting to the charges.
— GuideMe! Japan (@guideme_japan) July 25, 2016
— NewsYab.com (@NewsYab) July 25, 2016
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) July 25, 2016
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 4:52 pm
Facing an already rambunctious crowd – chanting ‘Bernie’ at every mention of Clinton – The DNC has been forced to issue a formal apology to Bernie Sanders (and presumably his supporters)…. “the inexcusable remarks… do not reflect the value of the DNC or our steadfast commitment to neutrality during the nominating process.”
So… we assume this means Vladimir Putin’s crack team of Kremlin hackers did not “make them up” then.
What is “them”? Here, courtesy of the Gateway Pundit are the key highlights from the leaked DNC emails:
The list was compiled thanks to the work of Reddit Bernie Sander supporters and Donald Trump supporters:
Hat Tip Steve A.
by Zero Hedge - July 25th, 2016 4:50 pm
Clinton Cash, a feature documentary based on the Peter Schweizer book, has been posted to YouTube for all to view free just in time for the DNC. Clinton Cash investigates how Bill and Hillary Clinton went from being “dead broke” after leaving the White House to amassing a net worth of over $150 million, with over $2 billion in donations to their foundation. This wealth was accumulated during Mrs. Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State through lucrative speaking fees and contracts paid for by foreign companies and Clinton Foundation donors.
The New York Times hailed the book as “The most anticipated and feared book of a presidential cycle” while MSNBC described the documentary as devastating for the Hillary campaign.
The Clinton camp has, of course, dismissed the documentary as a right-wing smear campaign filled with unsubstantiated conspiracy theories. That said, perhaps the most shocking aspect of the release is that many of the biggest bombshells revealed in the documentary have been vetted and confirmed by various mainstream media outlets. More recently, some information uncovered in the Panama Papers has echoed some of Schweitzer’s allegations in the movie and book.
Just to highlight a few of the scandals detailed in the documentary:
- Russian Purchase of US Uranium Assets in Return for $145mm in Contributions to the Clinton Foundation – Bill and Hillary Clinton assisted a Canadian financier, Frank Giustra, and his company, Uranium One, in the acquisition of uranium mining concessions in Kazakhstan and the United States. Subsequently, the Russian government sought to purchase Uranium One but required approval from the Obama administration given the strategic importance of the uranium assets. In the run-up to the approval of the deal by the State Department, nine shareholders of Uranium One just happened to make $145mm in donations to the Clinton Foundation. Moreover, the New Yorker confirmed that Bill Clinton received $500,000 in speaking fees from a Russian investment bank, with ties to the Kremlin, around the same time. Needless to say, the State Department approved the deal giving Russia ownership of 20% of U.S. uranium assets
- Lucrative Haiti Gold Mining Permit Awarded to Hillary’s Brother – The Washington Post confirmed claims that Hillary’s brother, Tony Rodham, sat on the board of a mining company that just happened