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How Much More GDP “Growth” Will Be Due To Obamacare?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A month ago we revealed that, much to the chagrin of economists who proclaimed that the laughable 5.0% GDP surge in in Q3 was the result of the now undisputable economic “recovery” (where is that recovery now?), that the bulk of the upward revision came from the latest attempt to centrally-plan and socialist the US economy: an attempt which has immediate, and short-term benefits and a very long lasting adverse side-effects: the mandatory wealth-redistribution that is the tax known as Obamacare.

So looking forward, now that the soaring dollar and plunging crude are sure to punish the Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 GDP growth rate by more than half, with estimate now sliding to the mid to low-2% area, what “benefits” to the US economy can one expect from the tax that is Obamacare?

As the following chart courtesy of Goldman shows,thanks to contributions from Medicaid and Medicare and, drumroll, Exchange subsidies, the “benefits” from Obamacare will be with us, well, maybe not “us”, but certainly with the way GDP is calculate for a long, long time, as the recent health spending ramp is only just getting started. Here’s Goldman’s Alec Phillips:

After several rounds of downward revisions to forecasts, projected spending on federal health programs has been more stable recently. CBO did make a small additional downward adjustment to Medicaid spending in its new estimates; that change was driven by evidence of slowing spending growth in that segment. However, overall the changes are a rounding error compared to the size of the programs and much smaller than the downward revisions made over the last few years, which cumulatively reduced projected spending over the next decade by more than $1 trillion. Recent data show an acceleration in spending growth in federal health spending programs, though this appears to be due mainly to the coverage expansion resulting from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) rather than increasing cost growth, as might be suggested by rising growth in Medicare spending, for example (Exhibit 2). That said, whether health spending growth begins to pick up will be an important factor for the medium-term budget deficit.

In other words, all that is needed for the Q1 “winter storm” impact to be fully offset in GDP is for millions of Americans to have no…
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Jim Rogers is Wrong!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

By: Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

“If you’ve got young people who don’t know what to do, I’d urge them not to get MBAs, but to get agriculture degrees,” – Jim Rogers

“All your viewers who got MBAs made a terrible mistake; they should try to exchange them for farming degrees or mining degrees”. – Jim Rogers speaking to a Bloomberg anchor

In 2004, Jim’s book Hot Commodities was published. In the book he focuses specifically on sugar and coffee due to favourable supply demand issues. Over the few years following publication both commodities rallied hard producing gains of 155% and 232% respectively.

We did not disagree and discussed Input Capital and their agricultural streaming model which we really liked and still do. We discussed opportunities for traders in “The Ag Trade” where Mark discussed specific trading strategies he was employing.

Agricultural Commodities

Over the last 10 years the returns have been admirable as you can see from the chart. That is provided you’d invested in 2005 and held on till today, and refrained from investing at any of the peaks in the respective commodities.

Looking out into the blue horizon I have to remain long term bullish on agricultural commodities. The solution to insufficient supply is higher prices, and as Rick Rule is fond of saying the solution to higher prices is higher prices. Higher prices will come due to insufficient supply on the back of rising demand from a rapidly developing middle class in emerging and frontier markets. In a recent article in the Economist I read the following statement.

“In the next 40 years humans will need to produce more food than they did in the previous 10,000 put together.”

Ok, so you’re wondering why or where Jim Rogers is wrong…

The answer to this lies in a story which begins with two distinctly different types of people: farmers and bankers.

Farmers do their clothes shopping at 1960s department stores, drive anything that has a space for a dog in the rear and dine on meat and 2 veg.

Bankers line the interior of their cars with 16 dead cows, polish off filet mignon and truffles – truffles being something most farmers I know would think is a game of some sort, not…
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Caption Contest: When Barry Met Sally

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having cut his visit short with his other best friend – India’s Narendra Modi – President Barack Obama (escorted by his wife Michelle) hopped Air Force One over to Saudi Arabia to pay respects to the dead King and meet-and-greet the new King Salman. The meeting full of pomp and circumstance was, however, not without controversy – with videos circling social media showing Michelle Obama’s image blurred out and claims that she was snubbed by King Salman – all apparently untrue.

When Barry Met Sally…

Alleged clips of Michelle Obama blurred out of State TV…

The full meet-and-greet – with non-blurred images and ‘some’ acknowledgements for The First Lady…





New Gold Rush? 10 Ounces Of “Historic Nuggets” Stolen From San Francisco Museum

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Three masked men smashed an SUV into the front-windows of The Wells Fargo Museum in San Francisco's financial district at around 230am Tuesday, making off with 10 ounces of "historic gold nuggets." As AP reports, robbers in Northern California have targeted precious metals in museum displays before and the tactics of the heist have marked other recent robberies in the area. The men escaped in a second vehicle, according to KGO, and the vehicle reportedly headed east across the Bay Bridge. Local coin dealers said the robbers may have difficulty selling the nuggets unless they melt them down. No dollar bills, Euros, or Japanese Yen notes were stolen during the robbery.


 

As AP reports,

Thieves in a stolen SUV smashed through the glass doors of the Wells Fargo History Museum in downtown San Francisco before dawn Tuesday and made off with up to 10 ounces of historic gold nuggets worth roughly $10,000, police said.

But rare coin dealer Don Kagin says the robbers may have difficulty selling the nuggets unless they melt them down. Word of the heist was spreading through the rare coin community, Kagin said, and dealers will be on the lookout for nuggets and coins with historical significance that suddenly appear on the market.

The three masked thieves held a security guard at gunpoint, took around 10 ounces of gold from an exhibit case and got away in a waiting sedan, police said. The guard wasn't injured.

With the SUV still wedged in the revolving doors Tuesday morning, people walking to work stopped to look at the aftermath of the robbery and snap pictures, while police surveyed the damage.

Shattered glass crunched underneath the tires of a tow truck pulling the green 1992 Chevrolet Suburban from the building.

*  *  *
The museum is in the 400 block of Montgomery Street and houses “real gold from California gold country regions,” a Wells Fargo stagecoach from the 1860s and a working telegraph, according to the museum’s website.

In addition to the stagecoach, used in the 1860s, the museum has a working telegraph and art and historical artifacts on display.

*  *  *

The men escaped in a second vehicle, according to KGO. The vehicle reportedly headed east across the Bay Bridge.

*  *  *

Not the…
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Singapore Enters The Currency Wars: Weakens SGD By Most In 3 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Today’s rambunctiousness in US equity markets as every company (even AAPL admitted this quarter would be more problematic from an FX perspective) rotates from ‘weather’ excuses to ‘currency’ excuses is not going to get any better as tonight, yet another world nation entered the ‘devalue-or-die’ brigade. Singapore’s MAS announced a surprise shift in the slope of their policy band – implicitly loosening policy and so the Singapore Dollar dumped over 160 pips against the USD, the biggest drop in almost 3 years, tumbling to its weakest since Mid 2010. Interestingly, against the Japanese Yen this move merely roundtrips SGD strength from yesterday as one wonders who the real enemy in the competitive devaluation game is…

The Sing Dollar weakened to 1.35 against the USD – the biggest single-day drop since Feb 2011…

A big drop for the SGD…

But against the JPY, it’s a small move…

Raising the question of just who the currency war is against…

Charts: Bloomberg





As Seen On The Streets Of Manhattan Today

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After panicky New Yorkers stormed their local neighborhood Whole Foods to stock up for the “Blizzard of 2015″ which subsequently was revised to merely “The Tempest In A Teapot of 2015″…

not a creature was stirring this morning:

Except, of course, a Porsche.

And a Maserati.

In summary:

h/t Gary





The New Venezuelan Entrepreneur: Making A living Lining-Up For Toilet Paper

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

At two in the morning, Krisbell quietly slips out of bed so as to not wake the two small children curled up next to her.

She grabs her phone and quickly dials her friends’ numbers as she’s already headed out the door to get the day’s intelligence report.

Most importantly—where is milk, sugar, and toilet paper being sold today?

From the moment price controls were levied in the country, there were shortages of everything in Venezuela.

Each month, it’s become increasingly difficult to get basic goods. And the lines are growing longer and longer.

Not everyone can afford to wait in line half the day just to get a few supplies.

And since you can’t even get everything in one store, it takes the second half of the day to get the rest of what you need—if there’s even anything left by then.

Friends and neighbors had started coming to Krisbell, asking her if she could help them get things from the grocery store.

They all have to work just to be able to afford the food in the first place, and they can’t spare the time to stand in line.

So (as reported by Bloomberg) Krisbell started taking on clients. Now she has enough that she’s earning her entire living from waiting in line.

Imagine—an entire cottage industry (absurd as it may be) now exists in Venezuela because of destructive government polices.

Everyone in the country has to pay extra for their basic goods, while others dedicate their professional lives to the unproductive task of standing in line.

(If this seems far-fetched, consider that the US tax preparation industry takes in $6 billion annually for dedicating itself to the unproductive task of filling out Byzantine tax forms…)

There’s no limit to the stupidity and destructiveness of people in power, and Venezuela’s President Maduro is a prime example.

This man (and his predecessor) took the country with the largest oil reserves in the world and crippled it to the point that Venezuela now imports oil.

And that was before oil prices plummeted. Now the country is even weaker.

Venezuela’s government is now on the brink of defaulting on its financial obligations… just as it has already defaulted on its obligations to its citizens.

It’s a sad example…
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Bonds & Bullion Best Since The Fed ‘Spice’ Stopped Flowing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Since the end of The Federal Reserve’s money-printing machinations (otherwise known as QE3), something odd has happened to global asset markets. US equity markets have suddenly stopped going up, bonds have soared, and physical demand for precious metals is bleeding back into the paper-pricing markets. Furthermore, the ubiquitously suppressed volatility across every asset class has slowly but surely started to decompress.

Stocks flat, Bonds best, Bullion bid…

And vol starting to surge…

It would appear it is – just as Bullard and Draghi said – all about the flow…





Is The BLS Overstating Jobs?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,


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Medvedev Warns Of “Unlimited Reaction” If Russia Cut From SWIFT

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While nations around the world continue to de-dollarize, Russia signed into law its anti-crisis plan today (though details will not be released until tomorrow). Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, however, was quite vociferous in some of his threats, warning The West that the “Russian response – economically and otherwise – will know no limits” if Russia is cut off from the SWIFT payments system. Additionally, as Royce, the chairman of the House foreign affairs committee, explains Iran nuclear talks “appear to be stalemated,” just days after Iran completes its de-dollarization and news today, that Russia and Iran plan to create a mutual account for bilateral payments in national currencies.

As ITAR-TASS reports,

Western countries’ threats to restrict Russia’s operations through the SWIFT international bank transaction system will prompt Russia’s counter-response without limits, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday.

“We’ll watch developments and if such decisions are made, I want to note that our economic reaction and generally any other reaction will be without limits,” he said.

In late August 2014, media reports said the UK had proposed banning Russia from the SWIFT network as part of an upcoming new round of sanctions against Moscow over its stance on developments in neighboring Ukraine. However, this proposal was not supported by the EU countries at the time.

After recent shelling of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol some western countries again started calling to disconnect Russia from SWIFT.

SWIFT transaction system

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) transmits 1.8 billion transactions a year, remitting payment orders worth $6 trillion a day. The system comprises over 10,000 financial organizations from 210 countries.

Under the SWIFT charter, groups of members and users are set up in each country covered by the system. In Russia, these groups are united in the RosSWIFT association.

*  *  *

Russia continues to try to create its own payments system as de-dollarization continues – believed to be ready by May.

Russia intends to have its own international inter-bank system up and running by May 2015. The Central of Russia says it needs to speed up preparations for its version of SWIFT in case of possible ”challenges” from the West.

“Given the challenges, Bank of Russia is creating its own system for transmitting financial messaging… It’s time to hurry up, so


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Zero Hedge

Deutsche Bank: "If The Fed Stick To Their Script Then The Market Could Be In For A Small Shock"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The only preview you need of today's first FOMC statement for 2015, one which has already cornered Yellen as any additional USD strength from here on out will certainly be economy and S&P500 negative, and who as Deutsche summarizes is damned if she does, and damned if she doesn't, and that as Jim Reid politely puts it, "something will have to give at some point."

From DB's Jim Reid:

One wonders how careful the Fed will be in 2015. We may get some early clues today after the conclusion of the first FOMC meeting of the year. This meeting isn’t going to see the release of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, nor a press conference but nevert...



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Phil's Favorites

Clash Over Sanctions: Syriza Opposes Sanctions on Russia, Calls Them "Neocolonial Bulimia"; Negotiation Rules

Courtesy of Mish.

The Blowout Victory of Syriza has taken on some new meaning outside of Grexit possibilities.

Please consider Greeks Rebuff EU Call for More Russia Sanctions.
A spokesman for the ruling coalition of Alexis Tsipras, prime minister, said Greece had not approved a statement from EU heads of government that asked their foreign ministers to review further sanctions in response to the latest flare-up of violence in eastern Ukraine, blamed by the US and most European nations on Russian-backed separatists.

The Greek statement raised questions over whether the new government, led by the radical leftist Syriza party, would s...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 01:43:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Ouch! See the last point of demand between $60 and $70 In Dec at resistance, now strong selling, Large pattern forecast sees a price under $40

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 06:54:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Coffe ETF bounces off support, minor spring, if get some strength to $40, a trade may be on!

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 02:28:29 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Asks, 'What's Driving Gold?'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GLD Jim Cramer Shares His Thoughts On Gold, Kinder Morgan And Dollar Tree Mike Khouw Sees Bullish Options Activity In SPDR Gold Trust Making Money With Charles Payne: 11/13/14 (Fox Business)

While other commodity prices have further softened recently, Gold rallied – rising from December low of $1,174/oz. to touch $1,300/oz. Joel Crane, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, expressed pessimism that...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 26th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: With the Fed fading into shadows, investors look overseas for new catalysts

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Last week, the S&P 500 put an end to its streak of weekly losses, despite giving back some gains on Friday. Thursday provided the big catalyst, with the ECB’s announcement of its bold new monetary stimulus plan. Investors were cheered and soothed for the moment. And U.S. fundamentals still look strong. But with Greece trying to turn back time, with volatility elevated (and likely to continue as such), and with the technical situation still dicey, the near term outlook is still worrisome.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart...



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Market Shadows

Are You Trading or Gambling?

ARE YOU TRADING OR GAMBLING?

An interview with John Ehlers of Stock Spotter and Mesa Software

By Ilene

Ilene: John, in our last discussion about trading systems in general and yours in particular (Can trading be reduced to cycles, stresses and vibrations?) you mentioned Monte Carlo simulations and their use in measuring performance. Can you explain more about how you measure the performance of a trading system?

John: Let's start with comparing trading with gambling. The two have several things in common.  In both ...



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Digital Currencies

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services

So as I was saying yesterday (Bitcoin: The Biggest Clown Show In History?), Bitcoin has several obstacles on the path to potential success as an alternative currency. But I forgot to mention hacking and theft at Bitcoin exchanges and other technical problems. This is related to the lack of government backing and the fact that the value of Bitcoins is based entirely on confidence.  

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services 

By 



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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