Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Obamacare Enrollment Drops To 11.1 Million, Government Calls It “Sign Of Success”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By nearly all accounts, Obamacare has been a spectacular failure. Whether it’s the fact that half of the cooperatives created by Obamacare had to shut down costing taxpayers roughly $1.2 billion, or that insurance premiums are exploding higher, or perhaps just having to find a new healthcare plan since the largest US health insurer decided to divorce itself from the Obamacare exchanges, it all points to disaster.

When it comes to the latest Obamacare enrollment figures, the story remains the same. As The Hill reports, Obamacare enrollment dropped to about 11.1 million people at the end of March, down from the 12.7 million who signed up for coverage before the January 31 deadline.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) said that a dropoff was expected, and has occurred in previous years as well, given that some people who sign up do not pay their premiums – we wonder why that is. The administration says it projects that about 10 million people will remain signed up by the end of the year. Said otherwise, they government is planning on another 1.1 million dropping out of Obamacare before the end of the year.

Kevin Counihan, the CEO of the Obamacare marketplaces, said the fact that about a million more people are signed up than at a similar point last year (11.1 million compared to 10.2 million) is a sign of success. We suspect Kevin is conveniently forgetting the fact that the CBO had projected that 2016 enrollment would be as high as 21 million people – but perhaps missing projections by nearly half is a sign of success in the government’s eyes.

Here is how Counihan is spinning the results:

“This increased level of enrollment demonstrates the strength of the Marketplace over time, as millions of Americans continue to have access to quality and affordable coverage when they need it. As of early this year, 20 million Americans had coverage thanks to provisions of the Affordable Care Act, and the Health Insurance Marketplace is an important contributor to that progress.”

* * *

Then again, despite the incredible miss in enrollment compared to projections, and ignoring the fact that the enrollment level dropped once again, perhaps Obamacare did actually achieve its ultimate goal. As we reported earlier this week, Obamacare accounted for 58% of US growth in Q1.





What Risk? Post-Brexit VIX Crash Is Greatest Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After a wild few weeks…

VIX dropped almost 42% this week – its biggest decline in history – as nerves settled over Brits’ decision to “leave” the EU.

A bigger “relief” than the end of the Gulf War, than the post-Bear Stearns fund liquidations bounce as Central Banks saved the world, and than the last minute decision to not shut down the US government on Dec 31st 2012, “Bre-lief” is indeed the great dumping of protection in history…





Weekend Reading: Bre-lief?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Quite a week.

Last week, the markets rallied in anticipation Britain would “Remain” in the European Union which reversed the sell-off from the previous week. Despite a variety of polls and betting sites showing rising odds of Britain remaining in the EU, the “inconceivable” occurred last Thursday proving everyone wrong.

But this week, the markets proved everyone “wrong” again. I suggested on Tuesday that Central Banks would come to the rescue once again, that happened yesterday as both the BOE and ECB made announcements hinting at more QE this summer. To wit:

  • BOE: SOME MONETARY POLICY EASING LIKELY OVER SUMMER
  • BOE: MPC WILL DISCUSS FURTHER POLICY INSTRUMENTS IN AUG
  • ECB: TO WEIGH LOOSER QE RULES AS BREXIT DEPLETES ASSET POOL
  • ECB: OPTIONS TO INCLUDE MOVING AWAY FROM QE CAPITAL KEY
  • ECB: CONCERNED ABOUT SHRINKING POOL OF ELIGIBLE DEBT

For those predicting financial market chaos and mayhem, Central Banks has successfully juiced asset prices erasing the majority of the previous losses.

It is for that reason I stated previously:

“There are times in portfolio management where ‘doing nothing’ is better than ‘doing something.’ This is one of those times.”

Any action taken over the last two weeks has likely turned out to be wrong. The problem for investors remains that markets have made “no progress” over the last 13-months. While volatility has increased, returns on assets remain muted which continues to frustrates individuals.

Fundamentally and economically there is little cheer about and on a longer-term basis, as shown below, the markets remain in what appears to be a broadening market topping process.

SP500-MarketUpdate-063016-2

The question remains whether Central Banks can continue to keep asset prices aloft while the economy and markets go through a recessionary cycle? Historically, that has never been the case. But then again, we have never had the level of Central Bank interventions currently being witnessed today.

Here is your reading list for the weekend.

It’s the height of your responsibility to not allow the EU to disintegrate without utilizing all its resources. Throughout history governments have issued bonds in response to national emergencies, When should the AAA credit of the EU be put to use if not at the moment when the European Union is


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Oil Market Structure (Video)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By EconMatters



Always avoid the last 45 minutes of the “Pit Close” in the Oil Market, unless you have reached the Master`s skill level as a Oil Trader, and even then you better be on your A-Game as a Trader. Institutional Traders often close out or initiate new positions on the last 5-minute bar of the “Pit Trading Session” which often results in large relative volume to overall market liquidity dynamics and leads to explosive spikes in Oil at the close (1:30 CST).

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   





Breuphoria – Stocks Explode Higher On Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We hope this helps…

Quite a week!!!

  • S&P +3.3% – best week since Oct 2014 Bullard Bounce
  • “Most Shorted” stocks =10.1% in last 4 days – biggest squeeze since May 2009
  • Financials +3% – best week in 3 months
  • 30Y Treasury yield to record low – best week in 3 months
  • Silver +11.25% – best week since Aug 2013
  • Gold up 5 weeks in a row
  • Oil +3.2% – best week in six weeks
  • Copper +5.5% – best week in 3 months

Since Brexit, bonds and bullion remain best and stocks tried their best to scramble back to unch…

The Dow has been the best post-Brexit performer… gettuing with 9 Dow points of the pre-Brexit close…

S&P at 2,100 and Dow at 18,000 were as crucial as getting green to Brexit…

TS S&P/DOW

On a yuuge short squeeze…(biggest weekly rise in “Most Shorted” in 4 months)

BUT the last 4 days’ 10.1% surge is the biggest since May 2009!

On no volume…

It’s been quite a few weeks for VIX… its biggest drop in history this week

While financials had a great week, they are still down over 2% from Brexit…

And the curve just keeps running away from them…

Treasury yields have tumbled since Brexit, reaccelerating lower today…

To record lows for 10Y and 30Y…

As 2s30s curve crahses to its lowest since Jan 2008 – when the last recession was underway…

FX markets were choppy but volatility dropped as The USD Index slid 4 days in row…

Commodities all rose on the week but Crude remain slower post-Brexit as Silver explodes…

Crude rallied thgrough the NYMEX close for the 10th day of the last 11 and extended on…

Silver is up 14% in the last 6 days post-Brexit… pushing for $20… the biggest surge since August 2013…

Charts: Bloomberg





Why Trump Is Routing The ‘Free Traders’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

In Tuesday’s indictment of free trade as virtual economic treason, The Donald has really set the cat down among the pigeons.

For, in denouncing NAFTA, the WTO, MFN for China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, all backed by Bush I and II, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Trump is all but calling his own party leaders dunderheads and losers.

And he seems to be winning the argument.

As he calls for the repudiation of “globalism” and a return to “Americanism,” a Republican Congress renders itself mute on whether it will even vote on the TPP this year.

On trade, Bernie Sanders is closer to Trump. Even Hillary Clinton has begun to renounce a TPP she once called the “gold standard” of trade deals.

Where have all the troubadours of free trade gone? Why do economic patriots seem ascendant? Is this like the Cold War, where the other side gets up and goes home?

Answer. As Trump pointed out in Monessen in the Mon Valley of Pennsylvania, the returns from free trade are in, and the results are rotten.

Since Bush I, we have run $12 trillion in trade deficits, $4 trillion with China. Once a Maoist dump, China has become the greatest manufacturing power on earth. Meanwhile, the U.S. has lost 50,000 factories and a third of its manufacturing jobs.

Trump is going to start a “trade war,” wail the critics.

But the damage wreaked upon U.S. industry by free traders already rivals what Arthur “Bomber” Harris did for German industry in the Ruhr.

In recent decades, every major U.S. trade partner — China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, EU — has run annual trade surpluses at our expense. How do 40 years of trade deficits in goods, run by a nation that rarely ran one for a century before, make us stronger or wealthier?

Or is what is best for the world now more important than what is best for America?

And here we come to the heart of the argument.

Washington, Hamilton, and Henry Clay, father of the “American System,” and Lincoln and every Republican president up to Eisenhower, crafted trade policies to promote manufacturing to grow the wealth of the USA.

They were patriots not globalists.

They knew that America’s political independence required economic independence of all other nations.


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ISIS Mastermind Behind Istanbul Terrorist Attack Was A “Refugee” Protected By Europe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following Tuesday’s horrific attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport which resulted in 44 death at the hands of 3 suicide bombers, Turkey was quick to blame the Islamic State for the terrorist act. And while that may be accurate, something surprising has emerged about the alleged ringleader of the group of three men who have been since identified as Russian, Uzbek and Kyrgyz nationals. As Russia’s Kommersant and Turkish media report, a Chechen national suspected of being the mastermind behind the deadly Istanbul airport terrorist attack, had previously received refugee status in Austria, which helped him to repeatedly avoid extradition to Russia on terror charges.

Ahmed Chataev

As the complete picture of the latest terrorist attack in Turkey comes together, it has emerged that the attack was allegedly organized by Ahmed Chataev, a Russian citizen of Chechen origin, who joined the Islamic State in 2015 and now fights in Syria, Turkish media report, citing police sources.

Chataev was assigned a leading role in training extremists that would then commit terrorist attacks in both Russia and Western Europe, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Investigative Committee Andrey Przhezdomsky said, adding that, in Syria, Chataev also commands a unit consisting “primarily of immigrants from the North Caucasus.”

It has been also revealed that Chataev was long wanted by the Russian authorities for terrorism-related offenses but he fled to Europe, where he was granted asylum, and successfully managed to escape extradition to Russia. The alleged mastermind joined Islamist secessionist militants that fought against Russia in the Second Chechen War between 1999 and 2000, where he lost an arm. Later, he was considered to be a representative of Dokka Umarov, once a “terrorist ?1” in Russia, in the Western Europe.

The attack coordinator was on a wanted list in Russia since 2003 for sponsoring terrorism, recruiting extremists and membership in a terrorist group, Russian media report. However, in the same year, he received asylum in Austria. Chataev reportedly claimed that he lost his arm as he was severely tortured in Russian prison adding that he is being persecuted by Russian authorities.


He lost his arm in Russia in the early 2000s, though there are conflicting reports
as to how he lost the limb

In 2008, he was detained with some other


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This Is What Loretta Lynch Said When Cornered About Her Clinton Meeting

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having been forced to remove herself from the Hillary Clinton email probe, Loretta Lynch admitted that her shockingly ill-advised private meeting with Bill Clinton has “cast a shadow” over the investigations and questions on the meeting are “fair.” Her magnanimity was further expressed “I wouldn’t do it again,” while claiming that she had made the decision to ‘recuse’ herself days before her Bubba meeting.

Highlights – “No Comment” on the system being rigged…

The headlines of what she said:

  • *LYNCH ON BILL CLINTON SAYS QUESTIONS ON CLINTON MEETING FAIR
  • *LYNCH SAYS HER BILL CLINTON MTG RAISED QUESTIONS AND CONCERNS
  • *LYNCH SAYS HILLARY CLINTON E-MAIL INVESTIGATION INDEPENDENT
  • *LYNCH SAYS `FULLY EXPECT’ TO ACCEPT INVESTIGATOR RECOMMENDATION
  • *LYNCH SAYS SHE’LL BE BRIEFED, `WILL BE’ ACCEPTING FINDINGS
  • *LYNCH SAYS DECISION ON HANDLING CLINTON PROBE MADE BEFORE MTG
  • *LYNCH SAYS SHE, BILL CLINTON TALKED GRANDKIDS, TRAVEL ON PLANE
  • *LYNCH SAYS MEETING `CAST A SHADOW’ OVER PROBE OF CLINTON E-MAIL

As we detailed earlier, on Monday evening US Attorney General Loretta Lynch conveniently just happened to meet up with Bill Clinton for a private meeting on her plane on a Phoenix airport tarmac.

Despite Lynch promising everyone that the only things that were discussed were Bill’s golf game and grandchildren, conservative watchdog Judicial Watch requested that the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General investigate the meeting. As The Hill reports, pressure is intensifying on Attorney General Loretta Lynch to hand off oversight of the federal investigation connected to Hillary Clinton’s private email server…

Calls for Lynch to step aside — which had already been simmering for months — appeared primed to boil over Thursday following the attorney general’s unscheduled, private meeting with Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton.

“Considering the ongoing criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton, this secret meeting between the Attorney General and Bill Clinton shows an astounding lack of judgment by Loretta Lynch,” House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said in a statement on Thursday calling for Lynch to recuse herself.

“Given the culture of unaccountability in the Obama Administration, it is unlikely that Attorney General Lynch will heed the growing calls for her resignation,” he said. “But at a minimum, Lynch should immediately recuse herself from the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s


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With 5 Million Unemployed, Spain Still Can’t Find Workers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With soaring youth unemployment, and close to 5 million people out of work overall, one would assume that the last problem Spain would encounter would be that it can’t find workers to fill open jobs.

However, as Bloomberg reports, Spain is facing labor shortages as employers struggle to find capable employees. “We were looking for people for two months. We managed to find one in Spain. We turned to Argentina for others” explains Samuel Pimentel, a headhunter who was searching for specialist consultants for a client.

Pimentel’s client asked for a list of candidates trained in”Agile” project management techniques for helping companies boost their productivity by using more IT systems. The client was even willing to pay $220,000 a year, almost 10 times the average salary in Spain, but Pimentel had a difficult time identifying candidates.

The main reason for this issue according to Valentin Bote, head of research at Randstad, a recruitment agency, is that the unemployed lack the skills to fill the available positions.

“It’s a paradox. The unemployment rate is too high. Yet we’re seeing some tension in the labor market because unemployed people don’t have the skills employers demand.” Bote said.

Companies are struggling to fill positions such as software developers, mathematical modelers, geriatric nurses and care workers. Although the unemployment rate is close to 20%,  Randstad estimates that companies may struggle to fill almost 2 million posts through 2020.

Spain has had seven different education laws since 1978 according to Bloomberg, but none have addressed fundamental problems that have led to a high-school dropout rate that is twice the European average. “Education and work exist in two alternative worlds that don’t really connect. While in other nations, like the US, college education is designed to get you a job, that’s not the case in Spain.” said Sandalio Gomez, a professor at the IESE Business School in Madrid.

We would argue that the US education system isn’t really designed to get students jobs per se, but we’ll save that topic for another day.

In Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s election manifesto, the People’s Party vowed to put more emphasis on technology in schools and get more students to learn English, but this issue has been decades


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How To ‘Win’ 91% Of The Time When Trading Oil

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Seriously…

For the 10th day of the last 11, the minutes before the NYMEX close (1430ET) have seen a remarkable sudden panic-buying spree…

We note yesterday was exciting as crude crashed right as NYMEX closed… are the pattern-fitting algos starting to recognize their own self-reinforcing patterns and front-running each other?

As always – buying is easy, it’s when to sell that’s hard.

Trade accordingly.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Why The Collapse Of The U.S. Economic & FInancial System Has Accelerated

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By the SRSrocco Report,

The collapse of the U.S. economic and financial system accelerated this year, thus pushing the country closer to a third-world status.  Most Americans are unaware of the dire consequences facing the nation, so they continue to believe business as usual will continue indefinitely.

Unfortunately, lousy reporting by the Mainstream media along with the public's denial and delusional thinking is a recipe for disaster for most Americans over the next several years.

The U.S. economy i...



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Chart School

Best Stock Market Indicator Update

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

We continue to receive requests for updates to the "Best Stock Market Indicator", which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the "Carlucci" indicator along with a summary of John's explanation on how he uses it.

As John described it: "The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money."

Latest Indicator Position

According to this system, the market ...



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Phil's Favorites

Final Auto Numbers: Total Sales Down 4.6%, Much Worse Than Expected

Courtesy of Mish.

Earlier today domestic auto sales came in a bit weaker than expected. Total numbers are now out. And they are much worse than expected.

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for total vehicle sales in June was 17.3 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR). The actual report shows 16.7 million SAAR sales.

Highlights

The first hard look at consumer spending in June is negative as unit vehicle sales fell a very sharp 4.6 percent to a 16.7 million annualized rate which, outside of March’s 16.6 million, is the lowest rate since April last year. Sales of North American-made vehicles fell 3.7 percent to a 13.2 million pace from 13.7 million with imports down 5.4 percent to 3.5 million. Data on cars and light truck show similar decline...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Kiss Your Domestic Bias Goodbye, Central Bankers of the World (Bloomberg)

In a globalized world, managing domestic economic conditions requires having one eye focused abroad.

European Cities Battle for London’s Finance Crown After Brexit Vote (Wall Street Journal)

European cities are closing in on London’s wounded financial hub.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver attempting breakout above dual resistance, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

In September of 2012, when Silver was trading at $28, the Power of the Pattern shared the chart below. The patterns suggested that even though Silver had already declined a great deal ($50 to $28), patterns called for it to fall nearly another 50%, to the $15 level.

Chart below was from 2012, see original post HERE.

...



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ValueWalk

John DeVoy, Former Baupost Director Hired By Loomis Sayles

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

John DeVoy, a long time analyst at Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group has left the hedge fund for a position at Loomis Sayles. Devoy formerly worked at Loomis before spending close to ten years at the Boston based hedge fund. The news was announced via a press release from Loomis.  The statement says that DeVoy will be returning to the company “as a dedicated credit strategist for the flagship full discretion team.”

Also see Will Baupost Follow Its Own “North Star”

Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman Sees ’50 Shades of Value’

Devoy was a managing dir...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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