Author Archive for Zero Hedge

WeWork Board, Softbank Officials Push For CEO Neumann’s Ouster

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The odds of WeWork co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann becoming "the world's first trillionaire"  maybe about to take another major hit.

In what appears to be the latest attempt to salvage the farce that is the WeWork IPO (and the massive hole it will leave in Masayoshi Son's balance sheet and credibility), The Wall Street Journal reports that a group of WeWork board members, with ties to Softbank officials, is pushing for the ouster of Adam Neumann as chief executive.

Citing the eponymous 'people familiar with the matter', The Journal writes that the board is expected to meet as soon as this week and potentially consider a proposal for Mr. Neumann to become We’s non-executive chairman, blaming another recent WSJ article that exposed Mr. Neumann's eccentric behavior and drug use (Neumann had taken marijuana on a flight from New York to Israel, prompting the jet’s owner to recall the plane).

As WSJ notes, any attempted coup is a gamble: Mr. Neumann still has allies among the directors and the ability to fire the entire board thanks to shares he controls that carry extra votes. But SoftBank, which has invested more than $9 billion into the company and is represented on the board, has considerable influence too, and We needs the Japanese conglomerate to continue pumping in cash.

There are seven We directors (including Mr. Neumann) and while the Journal discusses the 'bloc' above, it is unaware of the number aligned with, or against, the 'eccentric' trillionaire-to-be.

Still, while Son may hope the ouster of We's CEO will allow them to 'pull an Uber' – IPOing after the ouster of CEO Travis Kalanick was blame-scaped for all that was wrong with the company, we suspect We has bigger problems…

As Scott Galloway noted earlier: "math!"  before forecasting (somewhat prophetically already)


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Hong Kong Protesters Ratchet Up Violence; Mall Captured, Subway Stations Attacked

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Violent factions of the mostly peaceful Pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong took to the streets this once again this weekend – attacking two subway stations, igniting street fires and desecrating Chinese flags – one of which was set on fire before it was dropped into a dumpster and pushed into a river, according to the Associated Press and SCMP.

(Photos via SCMP, AP)

Photo: Edmond So


 

On Sunday, protesters ransacked a shopping mall in Sha Tin – targeting businesses with ties to mainland china, or otherwise seen as pro-government or pro-police. This drew a response from riot police, who deployed tear gas and beanbag rounds. 

Via SCMP


 

Demonstrators had vowed to disrupt airport operations by blocking access roads, but a heavy police deployment along road and rail links prevented travel chaos. The action shifted from Sha Tin to Tsing Yi and Kwai Fong, as protesters heckled police and damaged MTR facilities, before ending up at Prince Edward, a flashpoint for demonstrations as officers opened fire with beanbag rounds outside Mong Kok Police Station. -SCMP

According to Reuters, a man who admonished the protesters was reportedly beaten for 20 minutes before escaping.

The protests - now in their 16th week - were sparked by a now-withdrawn extradition bill, and have since morphed into a general pro-democracy / anti-government movement. 


Tyler Durden

Sun, 09/22/2019 – 14:10

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Hedge Fund CIO: “Generational Conflict Will Be The Top Theme Of The Coming Decades: Enter MMT”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

While our ageing central bankers gradually come to terms with the fact they do not understand the complexity of the system that they themselves created, our global youth are forming a new vision of their future. And while it’s notoriously difficult to predict the behavior of such complex systems, it seems a fair bet to expect a global green new deal, funded by bonds, bought by bankers.

* * * *

Climate change and generational conflict are the most important themes that will unfold in coming years/decades, he thought.

Of course, central bank impotence is a critical theme too, and the growing admission by our monetary magicians that they need politicians to pull the fiscal levers signals its arrival. But the intersection of climate and youth is something truly new. Climate issues concern global youth far more than matters of money. And for decades, the adult obsession has been on GDP, debt, productivity, interest rates, profit margins, taxes.

Japan’s bubble burst in 1989 and its adults chose economic stability over creative destruction. The cost was endless stagnation. Parents got the deflation they wanted. Kids forfeited hopes for a dynamic future. And now we fear the same fate for Europe, China, the US.

But as the global youth organizes around a plan to address a changing climate that their parents seem content to mostly ignore, they will find they have more economic and political issues in common with one another than with their parents. And they will reject the Japanese bargain.

One thing certain in a fiat currency system is that money’s value diminishes over time, he thought. Japan is the exception proving the rule, but even there, stability will pass.

And so, if the youth care more for the environment than they do about money, and if ageing parents care about their money more than they do about their children, then generational looms. However, one possible way to defer this clash involves the oldest trick in the book. And that is more money for everyone; for the GND, for Medicare, Medicaid, Soc Sec, tax cuts. Enter MMT.





Automation And The Crisis Of Work

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Technology, like natural selection, has no goal.

When it comes to the impact of automation (robots, AI, etc.) on jobs, there are two schools of thought:

  • one holds that technology has always created more and better jobs than it destroys, and this will continue to be the case.

  • The other holds that the current wave of automation will destroy far more jobs than it creates, but the solution is to tax the robots and use these revenues to distribute the wealth to everyone who no longer has a livelihood.

In either case, we'll get richer: if technology generates more high-quality jobs, replacing lower-quality jobs lost to automation, we'll collectively get richer, and if technology destroys jobs but creates immense profits that can be distributed to everyone as Universal Basic Income (UBI), then we'll get richer via distributing profits to everyone.

But what if neither option is realistic? What if the jobs that are created in the wake of automation are lower-quality, lower pay and far more insecure? And what if automation leads to much lower profits rather than much higher profits? What if there's nowhere near enough profits to distribute to everyone as Universal Basic Income? If that's the case, we're collectively becoming poorer, even if a small percentage of the population is reaping wealth from automation.

Consider this first-hand account from a reader on Facebook (used with permission):

"With almost 40 years in the pipeline business I have seen detecting and locating leaks in pipelines go from 6-8 men, 2-3 trucks, maybe an airplane and take days. With three pieces of equipment (Laser methane detector and a Optical Gas Imaging camera), $300 drone and a 4 X 4 pickup, one person can cover in a few hours what could take days to weeks to find years ago.

The work I do has displaced at least 6 if not more workers plus the capital cost of the equipment. The total cost of all my equipment is less than $200K and labor cost of less than $2K.

A 'Smart Pig' can detect, measure and locate a corrosion indication within mm's.


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French “Black Bloc” Antifa Cause Violent Mayhem After Infiltrating Yellow Vest, Climate Marches In Paris

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A group of approximately 1,000 "black bloc" anarchists infiltrated two Paris marches on Saturday, provoking clashes with police which led to mass arrests, according to AFP

The group first began marching with a Yellow Vest anti-government protest – setting fire to street barricades and breaking windows.

The anarchists then infiltrated a climate march, causing nonviolent families to abandon the event as French riot police deployed tear gas and other measures. Approximately 7,500 security forces were involved in the effort to police the events, while 163 people were arrested. The climate march organizers urged protesters to go home after the clashes turned violent. 

https://www.philstockworld.com/2019/09/22/they-dont-learn-from-experience-97-of-brazilian-day-traders-lost-money/

Around 15,200 took part in the climate march, according to the independent Occurence consultancy, while organisers claimed 50,000 and the police put the number at 16,000. -AFP

The Yellow Vest movement is now in its 10th month of protests despite French President Emmanuel Macron granting a series of economic concessions to reduce taxes and boost minimum wages along with other employement benefits. 

— Oh boy what a shot (@ohboywhatashot) September 22, 2019

"We are assembling just to say that we can't make ends meet. (The protest) is not only against the president, it's against the system," one female protester told AFP


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“They Don’t Learn From Experience” – 97% Of Brazilian Day Traders Lost Money

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A new study published in Social Science Research Network titled Day Trading for a Living?warns day trading as a full-time job in Brazil was virtually impossible, contrary to popular belief. 

Researchers obtained Brazilian SEC (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários) data that tracked all individuals who day traded mini-Ibovespa futures contracts between 2013 to 2015, a total of 19,646 traders.

Computing those who day traded mini-Ibovespa futures for only one day, only 29.8% (1,111 individuals) made a profit. Those who traded 2 to 50 days, only 15.5% (9,978) made a profit, 51 to 100 days was 8.9% (3,100), 101 to 200 days was 6.8% (2,738), 201 to 300 days was 5.4% (1,168), and more than 300 days was 3% (1,551). 

The portion of successful day traders declines with the number of days.

Researchers compare it to "casino roulette, where the proportion of successful players also monotonically decreases with the number of rounds played." 

Lead author Fernando Chague, assistant professor at São Paulo School of Economics, suggests, "day traders do not learn with experience." 

Chague found it doesn't depend on a broker or day trading classes, the "expected profit is always negative and does not improve with time." 

Chague observed a significant surge in HFT programs during the examination of the 2013 to 2015 data. He said: "Given this increase in HFTs trading activity, our finding of no learning could simply reflect the tougher competition individuals had to face over time. However, even when we control the learning regressions for HFTs presence, we still find no evidence of learning by day trading." 

The author adds that with only 3% of day traders profiting over 300 days, flipping mini-Ibovespa futures might be a terrible career choice, noting that 97% will lose money and make less money than a typical job in the South American country. 

Of the traders who successfully traded for more than 300 days (1,551), only 17 earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 per day), and eight earned more salary than a bank teller ($54 per day).


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Oil Set To Spike After Report Saudi Repairs At Abqaiq May Take “Up To Eight Months”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While S&P futures may spike at the open following Saturday's news from the NYT that the "the delegation of Chinese agriculture officials that had planned to travel to Montana and Nebraska in the coming week didn’t cancel the trip because of any new difficulty in the trade talks" but "instead, the trip was canceled out of concern that it would turn into a media circus and give the misimpression that China was trying to meddle in American domestic politics", oil too is likely to catch a bid after the WSJ reported that it may take "up to eight month", rather than 10 weeks company executives had previously promised, to fully restore operations at Aramco damaged Abqaiq facility, suggesting the crude oil shortfall will last far longer than originally expected.

The official reason for the delay: the supply-chain is unable to respond to the Saudi needs. Specifically, Aramco is" in emergency talks with equipment makers and service providers, offering to pay premium rates for parts and repair work as it attempts a speedy recovery from missile attacks on its largest oil-processing facilities." 

Following a devastating attack on its largest oil-processing facility more than a week ago, Aramco is asking contractors to name their price for patch-ups and restorations. In recent days, company executives have bombarded contractors, including General Electric , with phone calls, faxes and emails seeking emergency assistance, according to Saudi officials and oil-services suppliers in the kingdom.

"One Saudi official said costs could run in the hundreds of millions of dollars", the WSJ reported.

The unofficial, and more likely, version: Aramco is unhappy with how quickly oil prices dropped after the "Iranian attack", and since its objective from the very beginning – especially with its IPO looming – was to get oil prices higher, and with its reputation to prevent "outside shocks" in tatters,


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Disaster Ahead? Hawaii’s Economy Will Slow To “Near Standstill”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

We published a report last week revealing how Michigan has the highest probability of entering a recession later this year, with Hawaii having the second-highest chances.

In the latest forecast, published last Friday, the Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii (UHERO) warns Hawaii is "poorly positioned for risks" associated with an economic shock that could tip the island economy into a recession. 

UHERO blames the synchronized global slowdown, waning tourism industry, trade war, faltering US economy, population outflows, a strong dollar, and restrictions on vacation rentals that have already slowed the economy to a "near standstill," with the ability to generate recessionary shocks next year.

The slowdown in Hawaii's economy started around the time when J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI topped out in late 2017. And that slowing is getting more serious:

"Two years of population decline have undercut demand in many sectors. Tourism, while still generating impressive visitor numbers, has seen spending slip, and many international markets have fallen back sharply," researchers said. 

"Add to that the impending shock to Oahu from the crackdown on home vacation rentals, and prospects for further tourism growth look poor."

Researchers warned Hawaii's largest industry, tourism, could see a plunge in volume from international markets thanks to President Trump's trade war, could be enough to tip the economy into a recession.

"Conditions in the visitor industry are also weaker than they might at first appear. While arrivals numbers continue to set records, the number of visitors in Hawaii on a typical day has grown by just 1% this year. (The two can differ because of changes in the average length of visitor stay.)

Most worrisome has been a sharp pullback in international markets, where the number of visitor days has declined across all major market segments. Because of a stronger dollar, foreign visitors are facing an increase in the price of Hawaii vacations, and the global economy has also slowed markedly.

Trump's rhetoric adds insult to injury. Those visitors who do come tend to spend fewer dollars. Inflation-adjusted international visitor spending is down more


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Stocks, Yuan, Oil Jump As Asia Trading Starts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A combination of Saudi comments on the length of time repairs to their key refinery will take and Chinese comments talking down Friday's canceled farm-land trip have sparked a bid for stocks, yuan, and crude in early trading Sunday night.

As we noted earlier, Saturday's news from the NYT that the "the delegation of Chinese agriculture officials that had planned to travel to Montana and Nebraska in the coming week didn’t cancel the trip because of any new difficulty in the trade talks" but "instead, the trip was canceled out of concern that it would turn into a media circus and give the misimpression that China was trying to meddle in American domestic politics", oil too is likely to catch a bid after the WSJ reported that it may take "up to eight month", rather than 10 weeks company executives had previously promised, to fully restore operations at Aramco damaged Abqaiq facility, suggesting the crude oil shortfall will last far longer than originally expected.

US Futures have indeed spiked… with S&P Futs back at the Maginot Line of 3,000…

Yuan has erased more than half of Friday's drop…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, oil is up, with WTI back above $59…

And gold is modestly lower…

 

 





Strange Magnetic Pulses Discovered On Mars Leave Scientists Baffled

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Elias Marat via The Mind Unleashed blog,

NASA’s robotic space rover has made a shocking discovery on Mars which, while puzzling to researchers so far, may be key to understanding the unique environment of the Red Planet.

Since last November, the InSight capsule has gathered information about the planet’s evolution and make-up, as well as recording its tremendous “Marsquakes,” measuring its upper crust’s temperature, and gauging the planet’s magnetic field.

But at a joint meeting of the American Astronomical Society and European Planetary Science Congress (EPSC), it was revealed that not only were there these strange pulses that “jiggled” the magnetic field, but the crust of Mars is also far more magnetic than researchers had expected.

The lander’s data also revealed that about 62 miles below the planet’s surface lies a 2.5-mile-thick layer of some electrically conductive substance. While scientists are less than certain, some are speculating that the layer could potentially be a massive body of water, either consisting of dissolved solids, or water and ice—and it may even be possible that the layer stretches across the entire planet.

Dave Brain, an atmospheric and space physics scientist at the University of Colorado who is familiar with InSight’s data, noted that because the rover can only dig as deep as 16 feet below the surface, it remains to be proven whether or not such vast water reserves exist. In the future, however, scientists will hopefully find other ways to find out what is causing the signals from the potential watery layer.

What also makes the discovery especially enticing for space scientists is the fact that Mars, unlike our planet Earth, suffered a collapse in its global magnetic field roughly four billion years. Lacking that crucial shield to defend itself from the sun’s solar winds, the planet was stripped of its atmosphere and became what it is now: a cold desert with bone-dry water reservoirs that’s


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Zero Hedge

WeWork Board, Softbank Officials Push For CEO Neumann's Ouster

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The odds of WeWork co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann becoming "the world's first trillionaire"  maybe about to take another major hit.

In what appears to be the latest attempt to salvage the farce that is the WeWork IPO (and the massive hole it will leave in Masayoshi Son's balance sheet and credibility), ...



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Insider Scoop

Notable Insider Buys In The Past Week: AbbVie, Kraft Heinz And More

Courtesy of Benzinga

Insider buying can be an encouraging signal for potential investors.

A packaged food giant and two drugmakers saw notable insider buying activity this past week.

Some of this insider buying occurred alongside insider sales.

Conventional wisdom says that insiders and 10% owners really only buy shares of a company for one reason — they believe the stock price will rise and they want to profit. So insider...



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Phil's Favorites

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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