Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Dow Drops Below 30,000, Global Rally Fizzles Ahead Of Data Deluge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US index futures dropped alongside shares in Europe with Dow Jones futures sliding back under 30,000…

… as a furious three-day rally paused ahead of a slew of pre-holiday economic indicators. Data, from jobless claims to consumer confidence and personal income, are due before markets close and traders head off for Thanksgiving.Ppositive vaccine news and the formal start of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to power – including the selection of Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary – have fueled optimism about the outlook helping global shares hit record highs earlier on Wednesday, and were on course for their best month ever. S&P 500 futures, which roll from the December to the March contract, rose as much as 0.6% before reversing gains.

"All eyes on U.S. data,” David Madden, an analyst at CMC Markets UK, wrote in a note. He cited durable goods, an advanced reading of the third quarter gross domestic product and jobless claims among some of the indicators traders will be looking at on Wednesday.

Joe Biden on Tuesday introduced his foreign policy and national security team which was basically extracted from the Obama administration, after President Donald Trump cleared the way to prepare for the start of his administration. Reports that Biden planned to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary, potentially easing the passage of a fiscal-stimulus package to counter COVID-19 damage, also cheered markets. As a result of the newly found optimism, the MSCI all world index rose to a record high of 622.12. It was last trading flat, on course for a record monthly gain, before the rally reversed overnight, although that will likely prove temporary: a Reuters poll found that the rally for global stocks is set to continue for at least six months.

"The world is going to look a lot better this time next year than it does now, and that’s what equity markets are reflecting," said Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The fact is the outlook has dramatically changed in the last month."

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower, as cyclicals such as mining and energy firms


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BofA’s Bonus Pool Flat For Traders Despite Soaring Revenue    

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As one of the most chaotic years on record comes to a close, the topic of conversation on Wall Street are bonuses. As we’ve noted (see: here & here), traders, analysts, and bankers are set to experience a flat to a slump in bonus payouts this year despite an explosion in trading and debt & equity underwriting.

The message from within Bank of America, according to Bloomberg sources, is that senior executives are likely to keep the bonus pool for sales and trading desks at last year’s level, despite a solid year in revenue, jumping more than 20% in the first three quarters of the year. 

BofA’s top leadership is mulling over large bonuses because the virus pandemic has wreaked havoc over its consumer division department and added expenses. 

Sources said some staff who expected to receive large bonuses for stellar performance are outraged. 

“Executives still have time to lobby for larger payouts to top-performing desks, and may indeed wrangle more money,” the source added.

BofA’s final bonus decision will hinge on how the fourth quarter plays out. Already, conversations have prompted senior managers to decrease bonus expectations as they conduct year-end meetings with subordinates. 

In a recent weekend briefing, a fixed-income manager told traders that they should expect bonuses that are flat compared with last year. 

New York consulting firm Johnson Associates recently released a note showing how third-quarter compensation analysis points to overall year-end incentives, including cash bonuses and equity awards, will decline on the year for Wall Street. 

“The pandemic is wreaking havoc on many parts of the U.S. economy this year, and the financial services industry is no exception,” said Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates. 

While retail and commercial bankers and asset management firms are expected to see year-end compensation incentive declines, Johnson said, he noted fixed income and equities traders could see large bonuses, anywhere from 20% to +45% over the previous year. 

For big Wall Street banks, the optics of big bonuses for traders may not be a good look as tens of millions of Americas have food and housing insecurity issues





Rabobank: Yesterday One US Journalist Tweeted About Joe Biden’s Socks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

30,000 Dow, 20,000 Leagues

Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000! Dow 30,000!

Did I mention Dow 30,000?

The Dow – she is slightly more than 29,999.

The Dow is 10,000 above the number in the title of Jules Verne’s classic early sci-fi novel ’20,000 Leagues Under the Sea’.

The above more or less captures the breadth and depth of financial market coverage of ‘key events’ of the past 24 hours. As often repeated here, this is not an equity-focused Daily. However, clearly a US benchmark equity index passing into a whole new “DOW XX,XXX!” baseball-hat territory is worth mentioning. A little. Even President Trump, in-between court cases that still have what some election law experts describe as a ‘Hail Mary’ chance of prevailing, held an emergency press conference to announce the significance of the Dow development, which was very much in keeping with his equity-focused presidency.

So, 30,000. Wow. Who could ever have seen that coming at a time of infinite global central-bank liquidity?

Infamously, economists Hassett and Glassman published a book called “DOW 36,000” (no exclamation point) all the way back in 1999. Pop quiz: how many burst US bubbles ago was that? The book trumpeted that this goal would happen by 2002 or 2004. Maybe we will get there by 2022 or 2024…which economists may still try to


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Rationally Irrational

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Six impossible things before breakfast…”

As US Stocks hit a cosmetic high, Bitcoin roars higher and Tesla defies gravity, what does it all mean? Have you planted your spring bulbs yet? 

Markets will remain irrational longer than I can keep shouting how daft they are. I am getting a little hoarse from my repeated warnings. (Does that explain this morning’s picture?)

Dave Portnoy, sports commentor turned stocked picker, is apparently right – stocks do only go up.  It hurts to have been be so wrong about Tesla – my wallet knows I’m an idiot because Tesla has risen around 700% higher since I sold the bulk of my position in 2018. Ouch. Bitcoin is the new gold – as I warn it’s a scam, it soars towards $20,000. There are a deal of stocks that have quintupled this year, and I own very few of them. 

For all the market fears, stock markets have never been so busy. Volumes are up 75% – largely on retail finding something to do during lockdown! The retail no-fees brokerage sites keep crashing, unable to keep up with demand. Does that ring any alarm bells? Perhaps it should be. When shoe-shine boys are giving you stock tips.. beware.

From an investment perspective, not listening to me rant about bubble stocks and scams makes sound financial sense. Which is a very good reason to keep reading the Morning Porridge every day – remember my musings are only my opinions, but learn from my mistakes and what I miss. And, for every day that I am resoundingly wrong about everything…. increases the probability I will eventually be right.. Probably. Maybe.. (I was right about WeWork, but it took time..)

In terms of the larger market I am currently in a quandary – or maybe schizophrenic. Maybe Portnoy et all are right? Maybe this time it is really different? Maybe the background to rising stock prices is strong because the whole investment ecosystem is so changed? 

There is certainly some logic in that argument. The big picture is simple: ultra-low interest rates have repressed yields – meaning


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EV Shares Dump After Chinese Officials Order Probes 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Shares of EV companies are tumbling Wednesday morning following reports from China that state planners are opening probes into new energy vehicle projects in the country, reported Reuters

Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio, trading on the Nasdaq, are down more than -6.5%. 

Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Li Auto, with shares trading on Nasdaq, slumped nearly 7%. 

Xpeng or Xiaopeng Motors saw shares on NYSE plunge 8%. 

Chinese battery and electric vehicle manufacturer Kandi Technologies saw shares on Nasdaq tumble 6%.

US EV companies also slid on the news. 

Lordstown Motors fell 3%. 

Tesla was flat. 

Shares of Nikola Corporation dropped 15%. 

Here’s how FinTwit reacted to the news:

Some believe it’s time to buy the dip. 





UMich Consumer Confidence Slides, Republican Hope Hammered

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After yesterday's disappointing drop in consumer confidence from The Conference Board, this morning's final UMich sentiment survey was expected to fall from October's 81.8 level (in line with the 77.0 flash print). The number were mixed, echoing the same picture as The Conference Board with current conditions slightly higher and future expectations dropping.

The final consumer sentiment index for Nov. fell to 76.9. It was 77.0 in the preliminary reading. The index was 81.8 last month.

  • Expectations index fell to 70.5 vs. 79.2 last month.

  • Current economic conditions index rose to 87.0 vs. 85.9 last month.

Source: Bloomberg

UMich notes, “November data were less optimistic than last month due to the resurgence in covid infections and deaths as well as partisan shifts due the outcome of the presidential election”

The drop in confidence was dominated by a plunge in Republican hope…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is odd because UMich notes that “the steep rise in covid infections had a greater impact on Democrats as 59% of Democrats reported that the coronavirus had changed their lives to a great extent compared with just 36% among Republicans.”





British Economy Shrinks By Most In 300 Years Thanks To COVID, Chancellor Warns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Just days after UK Prime MInister Boris Johnson confirmed that the 2nd English COVID-19 lockdown would soon come to an end (as England is expected to revert back to the tiered system of restrictions that preceded it), Chancellor Rishi Sunak on Wednesday shared some grim numbers about the state of the British economy with Parliament.

With global stocks on track to clinch their strongest monthly performance in modern history, Sunak warned that the British economy is set to contract by by more than 11% in 2020, the biggest annual contraction in 300 years – a period that has included at least one other global pandemic, and many, many wars.

It's no secret that the UK has been one of the hardest-hit developed nations. With one of the highest COVID-19 death tolls in the world, British leaders have imposed some of the harshest restrictions on movement and businesses in all of Europe.

With the UK budget deficit ballooning toward a new post-war high, the chancellor is focusing on providing support for jobs and the unemployed, plowing tens of billions of pounds into infrastructure spending, and ensuring the British health-care system is ready for another onslaught of patients.

Bloomberg noted that the double-digit economic contraction appears to be the worst since 1709, when the Great Frost of 1709 (the coldest winter European has seen in at least the last 500 years) caused thousands of Britons to die of frostbite and its economy to contract by 13.4%.

Sunak also unveiled plans for a budget swollen by record borrowing. Although the Conservative Chancellor announced widely expected limits on public-sector pay and cuts to foreign aid programs – a measure that has the support of 60% of the British public, according to public opinion polls =  he also authorized spending including £4.3 billion to help the unemployed back into work, and £3.7 billion for schools and further education colleges, along with the same amount for hospitals. The most noteworthy announcement has been the biggest uptick in defense spending in three decades: a four-year, £24 billion investment in the country’s armed forces.

Source: Bloomberg


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Slack Soars 30% After Reports Of Salesforce Buyout Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1150ET): Slack shares are trading again, and they’re up a staggering 30% even though the deal isn’t anywhere near a sure thing.

Salesforce, meanwhile, is down 4%.

This could present an intriguing merger arbitrage opportunity for anybody who is still…trying to make money that way…since the end of the year is often a popular time for deals, and with stocks at record highs and rates still anchored, companies have the incentive to put some money to work.

Speaking on CNBC, Dan Ives said this deal “would make a lot of strategic sense [for Salesforce] as they look to penetrate on the personal collaboration front” creating what’s essentially a second major player rivaling only MSFT.

* * *

Slack shares soared Wednesday, forcing a halt during an already abbreviated session, on news that software as a service pioneer and newly minted Dow 30 member Salesforce has held talks to buy the messaging/workflow company.

Any deal, according to CNBC, would likely value Slack at more than its current market capitalization of $17 billion and represent Salesforce’s largest acquisition ever. There is no guarantee the talks will lead to a deal, however.

Slack shares were halted after soaring 7% higher.

While shares of Salesforce slumped, dragging the Dow lower.

As Slack shares soared, the joke was on the Twitter bulls who had held out hope that Salesforce might buy Twitter instead. Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff took a close look at Twitter three years ago, but eventually revealed that shareholders were against such a deal. Interestingy, Benioff later revealed in his book that he slipped on a curb and sliced his leg open on his way to a meeting about securing financing for a Twitter buyout, which he took as a sign that he should listen to his advisors and abandon the deal. 





World Sees Record Jump In COVID-19 Deaths As Cases Near 60 Million Mark: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • US suffers most new deaths in months
  • Global deaths see new daily record
  • Cases near 60 million
  • US mulling abandoning travel restrictions on Europe, Brazil etc
  • College students scramble to get home for the holiday
  • Merkel proposes tighter restrictions
  • Iran sees back-to-back record cases
  • Russia sees another day of record deaths
  • South Korea confirms nearly 400 new cases
  • Australia's most populous state to ease restrictions

* * *

As global confirmed COVID cases teeter on the brink of 60 million, millions of Americans are rushing home via planes, trains and automobiles to try and spend the holiday with family (even if this year, the number of seats at the table is much smaller than usual). Just in time for the holiday, the 7-day average of new cases remains at record highs, while hospitalizations have hit a new record, and daily deaths topped 2k yesterday, the largest tally since the spring.

Globally, the number of deaths record yesterday topped 12.75k in just 24 hours, a new record high, as deaths finally start to catch up to increases in case numbers and hospitalizations.

In terms of news, Reuters reported that the US government is considering removing bans on entry into the US for non-citizens who recently visited Brazil, the UK and the EU. While lifting these restrictions could lead to a resurgence in tourism, it's more likely that it won't have much of a near-term impact, as most airlines have cut international flights to the bone. Other bans, including on travelers from China and Iran, will remain in place.

According to Reuters, the plan has received the approval of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. Many administration officials argue the restrictions no longer make sense given that most countries aren't subject to any travel bans. Officials believe lifting the restrictions could bolster the struggling airline industry, which has seen international travel fall by 70% this year. The Trump Administration infamously dragged its feet before


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IBM Cuts 10,000 Jobs From Its European Services Business Ahead Of Planned Spinoff

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Fresh off reporting its lowest revenue figure this century and an alarming slowdown in its cloud-computing business, IBM is planning to cut about 10k jobs from its European operations – roughly 20% of the company's total head count in Europe – as "Big Blue" prepares to sell its services unit.

The wide-ranging losses will affect about 20% of staff in the region, according to people familiar with the matter. Workers in the UK and Germany will see the bulk of the cuts, though employees in Poland, Slovakia, Italy and Belgium will also be impacted. The cuts should be finished by the end of the first half of 2021.

IBM announced the job cuts in Europe earlier in November during a meeting with European union leaders.

"Our staffing decisions are made to provide the best support to our customers in adopting an open hybrid cloud platform and AI capabilities," an IBM spokeswoman said in an emailed statement. "We also continue to make significant investments in training and skills development for IBMers to best meet the needs of our customers."

In a sign of just how dominant cloud-computing is becoming, the biggest cuts will impact Big Blue's European IT services business, which is responsible for managing clients' servers and data centers. As the pool of customers who rely on the old-school servers dwindles, IBM has said it plans to spin off the services business as part of a pivot toward cloud computing and AI. But rather than selling the business, IBM is planning to carve it out as a "tax-free spinoff" for IBM shareholders by the end of next year.

"We’re taking structural actions to simplify and streamline our business," said IBM Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh during the company’s Q3 earnings call last month. “We expect the fourth-quarter charge to our operating results of about $2.3 billion."

How IBM handles its legacy services business will be of great interest to its tech rivals. Back in 2005, the company offloaded its laptop hardware business to Lenovo. But as those old server farms become increasingly rare as the shift to cloud computing continues, there's still money to be made servicing those older products.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The Bears Get Slaughtered. Again.

 

The Bears Get Slaughtered. Again.

Courtesy of  

 

 

On an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Michael Batnick and Josh Brown discuss the biggest topics on Wall Street this week, including:

  • All the ingredients seem to be in place for a market melt-up into year end – or did that already happen?
  • The Armageddonists – JP Morgan’s Michael Cembalest returns to his chart of the growliest bears in finance. Hopefully they’re not actually investing this way.
  • The return of Janet Yellen as President Elect Joe Bid...


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Zero Hedge

Dow Drops Below 30,000, Global Rally Fizzles Ahead Of Data Deluge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US index futures dropped alongside shares in Europe with Dow Jones futures sliding back under 30,000...

... as a furious three-day rally paused ahead of a slew of pre-holiday economic indicators. Data, from jobless claims to consumer confidence and personal income, are due before markets close and traders head off for Thanksgiving.Ppositive vaccine news and the formal start of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to power - including the selection of Jan...



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ValueWalk

Which Of Workhorse Or Nikola Stock Would Grow The Most

By Benzinga. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Every week, Benzinga conducts a sentiment survey to find out what traders are most excited about, interested in or thinking about as they manage and build their personal portfolios.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

We surveyed a group of over 300 Benzinga investors on whether shares of Workhorse Group Inc (NASDAQ:WKHS) or Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA) stock would grow the most by 2025.

Over the next five years, which stock will have the largest percentage ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

 

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

Now there is a third possible vaccine for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

The biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has released data on what is now the third promising vaccine candidate against COVID-19 – and it has several advantages over those of its competitors, ...



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Politics

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

 

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

The Trump Legal team filed more documents today in the appellate court. I tweeted a bit about how silly they were (let me know if you all want me to march through them). Then this happened:

Trump giving the go-ahead for the transition to get underway was (I believe) the closest he will get to conceding the election. Two amusing things happened. First, Trump tweeted this about 10 minutes after Emily Murphy submitted a letter saying she would move forward, and that she has made her decisions solely on her own and not at anyone’s direction. Looks like Trump wanted people to think that she was, in fact, acting at his direction.

The other amusing part was that Tr...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.