Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Wait Until All These New Homebuyers See Their Property Taxes Go Up Next Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

To add another chapter to the "our economy is a ponzi scheme bubble that is bound to eventually burst" argument, those who went out and overpaid for property this year may wind up with a hangover in the form up skyrocketing property taxes.

We all know that higher real estate prices (hereinafter referred to as "a real estate bubble") are often praised by government and Fed officials as signs of progress for the economy. They're great news for those who already own property and terrible news for those looking to enter the market for the first time.

But buyers in 2021 may face even more buyers remorse, on top of overpaying for property: they may soon find out that property taxes are going to increase, an article from The Motley Fool astutely noted this summer

This once again makes an already-expensive house an additional burden by levying more costs in the form of taxes.

Property taxes are determined by the assessed value of a home and multiplying it by your local municipality's tax rate. 

Assessments can obviously rise in price as homes do, driving taxes higher. 

Homeowners in 2021 are already starting to see these effects, the Fool article writes. An average property tax bill for a single family home went up from $3,561 to $3,719 in 2020, the report noted. Property taxes rose $323 billion, or 5.4%, in 2020, the report notes. It's not unreasonable to assume these taxes will continue to rise at this alarming clip for 2021, as the real estate market continued its "recovery" this year.

While homeowners can appeal property tax assessments, the process "isn't easy". 

"It's for this reason that homeowners are advised not to max out their budgets when purchasing property," the Fool article hilariously ends by saying. Perhaps someone can inform them that tapping out all lines of credit and maxing out one's budget is the American way…  





US Coal Stockpiles Slump To Two Decade Low As Power Plant Demand Surges 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One of the biggest ironies this year is the transition from fossil fuel generation to green energy has created a global energy crisis that is forcing the U.S., among many other countries, to restart coal-fired power plants ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. Coal is roaring back this fall but supplies are not catching up with demand. 

According to Bloomberg, US coal supplies dropped to 84.3 million tons in August, the lowest level since 1997. 

As of August, about a quarter of all US power generation was derived from coal. As winter approaches, coal-fired power plants will become a more significant percentage of all U.S. power generation. 

Power plants are expected to burn 19% more coal this year because soaring natural gas prices have made it uneconomical to produce power. In return, this is forcing generators to burn through coal reserves much quicker and has caught coal producers off guard who cannot bring new coal to the market. 

"The ability for the producers to respond is not what the utilities thought it was," Paul Lang, CEO at Arch Resources Inc., said during a conference call Tuesday. "It just doesn't exist anymore."

Weeks ago, Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources, the largest U.S. exporter of fuel, said demand for coal will remain robust well into 2022. He warned about domestic supply constraints and power companies already "discussing possible grid blackouts this winter." 

He said, "They don't see where the fuel is coming from to meet demand," adding that 23% of utilities are switching away from gas to burn more coal. There are not enough coal miners to rapidly increase mining output. 

Joe Craft, CEO for Oklahoma-based miner Alliance Resource Partners L.P., warned Monday, "coal stocks for customers are at critically low levels." 

Inventory declines came on very quickly as the global energy crisis emerged this year. Stockpile trends were well in line for the first half of the year, but stockpiles began to drop as soon as


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NASA Facing Massive $2.7 Billion Cost Overruns At Its Facilities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Adam Andrzejewski via RealClearPolicy.com,

The space race between private companies continues with actor William Shatner flying to the edge of space on Blue Origin’s New Shepard 4 vehicle and  SpaceX recently sending a civilian crew to space. While the competition between Blue Origin and SpaceX heats up, NASA is taking a back seat as it faces billions of dollars in project overruns.

While the National Aeronautics and Space Administration manages $40 billion in facility assets, more than 75 percent of it is beyond its design life and NASA faces a deferred maintenance backlog of $2.7 billion as of 2020, according to a recent report on cost overruns from NASA Office of Inspector General.

The IG reviewed 20 construction projects and found that six had “significant cost overruns” and 16 took or will take longer to complete than initially planned.

It looked at six projects at Glenn Research Center, Kennedy Space Center and Langley Research Center “that were significantly over budget as of June 2021.”

Cost increases ranged from $2.2 million for upgrades at Glenn to $36.6 million for repairs and modifications at Kennedy, the report found.

The increased costs for two of the projects were attributed to changing requirements, while contract prices for four others were either higher than originally estimated or resulted from disagreements between NASA and the contractor, the IG report found.

NASA didn’t provide effective oversight to determine whether the projects met cost, schedule and performance goals, the report found.

second NASA IG report estimated that delays from the Covid-19 pandemic cost nearly $3 billion.

Pandemic delays aside, NASA’s cost overruns can’t be accepted as the norm when private industry is passing up our taxpayer-funded space program almost daily.

*  *  *

The #WasteOfTheDay is presented by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com.





China Urges US To Immediately Lift Sanctions On Taliban As “Economic Chaos” Looms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

China is now urging the United States to immediately lift sanctions against the Taliban and unfreeze all of Afghanistan's assets abroad. As part of its appeal, Beijing is offering assurances to Washington that the hardline Islamist group will "effectively" protect the rights of women and minorities. 

Beijing is further warning the West of looming "economic chaos" in the war-torn central Asian country if more is not urgently done to relieve the economic pressure and allow for greater stability. "China urges the Western countries, led by the United States as a whole, to lift sanctions, and calls on all parties to engage with the Afghan Taliban in a rational and pragmatic manner," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this week following two days of talks with the Taliban which concluded Tuesday in Doha. 

"China hopes that the Taliban can further demonstrate openness and inclusiveness, unite all ethnic groups and factions in Afghanistan to work together for peaceful reconstruction," Wang added. "[The Taliban] should effectively protect the rights and interests of women and children … and build a modern country that conforms to the wishes of the people and the trend of the times," the top Chinese diplomat added.

He further explained that Afghanistan could be put on the path of "sound" development but only if there's international support for "the humanitarian crisis, economic chaos, terrorist threats and governance difficulties." Since early September, China has already pledged multiple tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, while hailing the "end of anarchy" in the country.

It must be recalled that this past summer as the US military was initiating its withdrawal after two decades of war and occupation, the very first foreign country to host Taliban leadership for "recognition" talks was China. It's also since been made clear that China is eyeing major investment and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan as part of Xi's long-running Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across Asia. 

China is especially said to be eyeing Afghanistan's untapped rare earth mineral deposits…


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Taiwan Is A ‘Number One Issue’ For The CIA’s New China Center

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

Now that the CIA has established a new mission that will exclusively focus on China, CIA Deputy Director David Cohen said that Taiwan will be one of the "number-one issues" for the new spy center.

"There’s a series of number-one issues with China," Cohen said at an intelligence conference on Sunday. "Taiwan is definitely one of the number one issues with China we are focused on."

Cohen’s comments came after President Biden said the US has a "commitment" to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Although US officials were quick to clarify that Biden’s statement was not a change in policy, hawks in Congress are ready to give the president war powers to fight China over Taiwan.

The hype over the ADIZ flights has filled Western media with articles predicting an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Cohen said that the CIA’s job is to find out how Chinese President Xi Jinping is "thinking about Taiwan" and to provide policy makers in Washington with "indicators" of a potential invasion.

When announcing the new spy center, CIA Director William Burns called China the "most important geopolitical threat" facing the US. In response to the announcement, China’s ambassador to the US said Washington should drop its "James Bond" theatrics and work towards better relations with Beijing.





Gender “X”: US Issues First Passport For People Who Don’t Identify As Male Or Female

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Americans who don't identify as male or female can finally rejoice, after the United States has issued its first passport with an "X" gender designation.

According to a Wednesday statement by the State Department, the "X" designation will likely be offered on a broad basis next year, according to AP.

The U.S. special diplomatic envoy for LGBTQ rights, Jessica Stern, called the moves historic and celebratory, saying they bring the government documents in line with the “lived reality” that there is a wider spectrum of human sex characteristics than is reflected in the previous two designations. -AP

"When a person obtains identity documents that reflect their true identity, they live with greater dignity and respect," said Stern, who added that her office planned to encourage other nations to embrace the same changes.

"We see this as a way of affirming and uplifting the human rights of trans and intersex and gender-nonconforming and nonbinary people everywhere," she said.

While the state department has declined to reveal who received the "X" passport, some suspect it may be Dana Zzyym, an 'intersex Colorado resident' who took the State Department  to court in 2015.

Zzymm (pronounced Zimm), was denied a passport after refusing to check male or female on an application – instead writing "intersex" above the boxes marked "M" and "F" – and requested an "X" gender designation in a separate letter.

Zzyym was born with ambiguous physical sexual characteristics but was raised as a boy and underwent several surgeries that failed to make Zzyym appear fully male, according to court filings. Zzyym served in the Navy as a male but later came to identify as intersex while working and studying at Colorado State University. The department’s denial of Zzyym’s passport prevented Zzyym from being able to travel to a meeting of Organization Intersex International in Mexico. -AP

In June, the State Department announced that it would add a third gender designation for nonbinary, intersex and gender-nonconforming people, however it said that due to extensive updates required to their computer systems, it might take a while to fully implement. One department official told AP that the passport application and "X" update to


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A Global Oil Shortage Is Inevitable

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • While oil and gas companies come under pressure to reduce production, the world’s thirst for new supply is only growing 

  • Without a significant uptick in investment, demand for oil and gas will surpass supply in the not-so-distant future

  • This disconnect between the political desire for less fossil fuels and the global hunger for fossil fuels could drive the price of oil up to $100

Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say. 

This would be a welcome development for green energy advocates, net-zero agendas, and the planet if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic-driven slump and will set a new average annual record as soon as next year.  

The energy transition and the various government plans for net-zero emissions have prompted analysts to forecast that peak oil demand would occur earlier than expected just a few years ago. However, as current investment trends in oil and gas stand, global oil supply could peak sooner than global oil demand, opening a supply gap that would lead to increased volatility on the oil market, with spikes in prices, and, potentially, structurally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade and beyond. 

Supply Could Peak Before Demand

“On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” Morgan Stanley’s research department wrote in a note this week carried by Reuters.  

“The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

The problem with the world is that oil consumption – wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all – is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates. 

OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day


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Flood Of SHIBA INU Buyers Crashes Coinbase

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Tens of millions of Coinbase users were locked out of their accounts around 3:30 pm ET when Shiba Inu (SHIB), the Ethereum-based Dogecoin copycat altcoin which has a total circulating supply of 1 quadrillion (meant to be an intentional contrast to Bitcoin's 21MM token scarcity) and which was already about up 60% for the day (and up a few million % in the past year), saw a relentless flood of buy orders…

…. resulting in a crash in Coinbase – which now has a market cap of $65BN and still yet can't operate during a traffic spike – and this "welcome" message:

The outage even broke the Coinbase debit card.

At that moment, the token which is basically a spoof of Dogecoin (and just as valuable), had reached a market cap of over $30 billion, making it bigger than Doge.

So powerful was the scramble to participate in the relentless upward SHIB momentum, it was the reason for today's drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of which tumbled overnight when the latest buying spree commenced…

… and which soared higher the moment Coinbase went down as accounts couldn't sell the two largest cryptos to buy what is by definition a joke altcoin.

That said SHIB, like DOGE, may be a "joke" crypto but that hardly matters to anyone who bought it and held at any time in the past few weeks/months and held: their profits at this moment are greater than any other asset class in the world right now.





Bond Market Screams Fed Policy Error, Sparks Huge Value-To-Growth Rotation In Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Stocks were very mixed today with Nasdaq (growth-dominant) soaring as Small Caps (value-dominant) slumped. As the day wore on and various headlines came out of Washington, all somewhat reducing the scale of the fiscal stimulus, stocks all began to fade. The Dow and S&P tumbled into the red and even Nasdaq gave back most of its gains in the last few minutes…

The Russell 2000 / Nasdaq 100 pair is now back at 6 week lows (and critical level over the last 3 months)…

…appears to have found its way back to the old correlation regime with real yields plunging…

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest growth outperformance of value since June today, with Value at its weakest relative to growth in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

Rent The Runway routed…

Twitter twatted…

Trump's Social Media SPAC surged…

And HOOD was hammered back below its IPO price near record lows…

The bond market was where the big action was today as yields collapsed at the long-end and surge at the short-end (30Y -10bps, 2Y +5bps)….

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations are soaring with 1.5 hikes priced in by Sept 2022 and 2.3 hikes priced in by Dec 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields were monkeyhammered back below 2.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

This is happening as specs are the most short bonds this year…

Source: Bloomberg

The big bond bear short-squeeze begins…


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How Long Until Supply Chains Finally Normalize: Three Things To Watch

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Earlier today, Morgan Stanley showed that more than inflation, more than concerns about the historic labor crisis, definitely more than covid, one thing has preoccupied the minds of most management teams this quarter: "supply chain issues", a topic which has seen an explosion of mentions on Q3 earnings calls.

But while by now everyone is aware that the global supply-chain shock is truly historic and getting worse by the day, with used car prices rising sharply again and over 30 million tons of cargo waiting outside US ports ahead of the holiday season, few have considered what realistically could normalize these frayed supply chains.

To address this topic, in a research report published overnight, Goldman's economists assessed the three key drivers of supply chain normalization and their most likely timing:

  1. improved chip supply driven by post-Delta factory restarts (4Q21) and eventually by expanded production capacity (2H22 and 2023);
  2. improved US labor supply (4Q21 and 1H22); and
  3. the wind-down of US port congestion (2H22).

And speaking of used car prices, in the first 15 days of October, the Manheim used vehicle index surged 8.3% due to yet another global supply shock: this time due to Delta-variant factory shutdowns in Southeast Asia and elsewhere.

Here, in a rare mea culpa, the Goldman economists admit that while previously they had expected improved microchip availability by 1H22 on the back of normalizing Japanese automotive shipments (post-factory fire) and a US supply response, with these catalysts now behind us — the Naka factory in Japan resumed normal shipments activity in July and US semiconductor plant hours jumped to 73 hours per week in the first half of the year vs. 46 in 2019 — Goldman now expects a "more extended timeline."

So with that demonstration of how thoroughly unpredictable the non-linear cascading consequences of such s diffuse, global phenomenon as international production pathways and supply chains are, Goldman proceeds to assess the three key drivers of supply chain normalization listed above, their likely timing, and the key indicators to track progress.

We start by reviewing one unique aspect


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Phil's Favorites

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

 

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

Shipping containers are moved from the Fairview Cove Container Terminal In Halifax in May 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Courtesy off Adel Guitouni, University of Victoria; Cynthia Waltho, University of Victoria, and Mohammadreza Nematollahi, University of Victoria

...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

 

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

The crypto wars are hotting up. Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

The world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, ether, has been touching all-time highs in price ahead of a major upgrade of its underlying platform, ethereum. Ether is currently worth in aggregate just shy of US$500 billion (£363 billion). That’s still slightly less than half that of the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin.

...

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Zero Hedge

Wait Until All These New Homebuyers See Their Property Taxes Go Up Next Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

To add another chapter to the "our economy is a ponzi scheme bubble that is bound to eventually burst" argument, those who went out and overpaid for property this year may wind up with a hangover in the form up skyrocketing property taxes.

We all know that higher real estate prices (hereinafter referred to as "a real estate bubble") are often praised by government and Fed officials as signs of progress for the economy. They're great news for those who already own property and terrible news for those looking to enter the m...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.