Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Trader Shares “A Few Ideas For Avoiding A Friday Faceplant”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Bloomberg macro commentator, Richard Breslow

Don’t mistake this as a trade recommendation, but it is all right to do nothing. Trading when you believe you have an edge is when it is time to step in. If you are there, then go for it. But trading merely because things are moving around is a day-trading concept, not an investment thesis.

It’s important to match trading style, objectives and realistic liquidity assumptions to how you view volatility vs risk. They are very much not the same thing. Made even more so if you think the Fed equity put has been eliminated. It hasn’t, just moved some.

I guess I would be more excited about jumping in if I could construct a more coherent explanation for precisely what is going on. And if I can’t come up with some half-baked theory I’m willing to run with, I’m willing to bet neither can a lot of other people. Even if they are more than willing to be adamant that it all boils down to one thing. It doesn’t.

And while I have lots of ideas of what, gun to my head, I’d do right now, I’m not sure there is any special advantage to blithely concluding this has all been noise or is the start of the big one. And that question is where you should be starting. Your correlation matrix depends upon it. Which matters mightily if you are busy doing X because of Y. Unless you just want to keep entertained by leaning on some very obvious, and close, chart points. And I fully understand the temptation. In fact…

Another thing to keep reminding yourself is the importance of considering the source. In the pure QE world it was easy for everyone to be an expert on everything. We knew how each act of the play, let alone the whole thing, was going to end. It’s trickier at the moment. And every market analyst who tells us about the intricacies of Middle East negotiations one day may not be as au fait with the market dynamics of the Dalian iron ore exchange the next. At the moment, I’m treating the word “because” with unusual circumspection.

There is one tangentially related issue I can’t get out of my head. Yesterday, Bloomberg News had an article about Russia’s plans to…
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Gold Best Post-Powell; Stocks, Yuan Bouncing After China Intervenes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After the carnage in Japanese, Chinese stocks overnight, US equity futures are staging their standard pre-open bounce this morning along with offshore yuan (which has nearly erased all post-tariff losses)…

Ugly night in Asia…

But a notable late-day bounce as Bloomberg reports  China intervened to support its stock market on Friday, people familiar with the matter said, after fears of a trade war with the U.S. sparked the steepest intraday selloff in six weeks.

And Europe…

But some bounce in US futures this morning… (thought context is king)

And offshore Yuan has almost erased all its losses..

And USDJPY broke 105…

But for now gold is holding on to gains…

And Treasury yields are now modestly higher from last night’s close…

Wall Street Reacts To Trade Wars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Four words sum up the broad consensus from financial analysts with regard the escalating trade wars: “This can turn ugly…”

China responded overnight, to Trump’s first $50 billion volley (retaliatory or not) in the trade war, with what many are calling a warning shot with a targeted $3 billion set of tariffs on US products. Chatter about yuan devaluation (the ultimate next stage in the trade war) were stymied as PBOC fixed modestly lower and offshore yuan is bouncing back a little.

However, broadly-speaking, none of this is positive and The FT provides a quick roundup of what analysts are saying about the brewing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

ING Asia Pacific chief economist Robert Carnell:

If the tariffs go ahead as planned, then we believe China will retaliate. It is impossible to imagine that they cannot. And then we expect the US to retaliate further.

This can turn ugly on a global scale very quickly. And synchronous global growth or not, markets are right to be pricing in a more subdued outlook.

Although this trade dispute is largely a US-China one, it has the potential to embroil much of the Asian region.

ANZ economists Raymond Yeung and Daniel Wilson:

Chinese authorities will stand firm as an advocate for globalisation but will respond to the US’s announcement on a bilateral basis. It will not devalue its currency.

Although the face value of the US tariff will be small, President Trump may push other countries to take sides, resulting in a divided world. The scale of the trade war would be broadened. This is the biggest risk lying ahead.

Our major worry is whether President Trump’s tactical approach will spill over to the rest of the world. He deliberately relates trade measures to foreign policy.

JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist Hannah Anderson:

The equity market will bear the brunt of the market reactions. Most impacted will be the US, Korea, and Taiwan as companies domiciled in these markets make up a significant portion of the global production chain of Chinese exports.

The effects are likely to be felt more strongly in the US and increase in both consumer and producer prices. Exports are extremely important to the Chinese economy, but have been trending less so in

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Global Stocks “Clobbered” As Trade War Breaks Out Amid Fears Of Political Instability

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

“The equity markets are getting clobbered, which is not that surprising with fears of a trade war breaking out”  - Paul Fage, TD Securities 

Global equities are melting as they take the full brunt of a break out in trade wars after China announced it plans $3BN in tariffs on US imports in retaliation to the $50BN in US sanctions, while the latest personnel turnover in the White House (with both Dowd and McMaster out) adds to fears of rising political uncertainty.

World stocks are down 3.4% since Monday, are on course for their worst week since early February, when a spike in volatility sent markets into a tailspin.

In the US, S&P futures are trading in the red, down 9 ticks as VIX make a trip back to the 25 handle, although they have since rebounded from the session’s worst levels.

Trade Wars

Overnight, China announced it plans tariffs on USD 3bln of US imports, in which it plans 15% tariffs on US steel pipes, wine and fruits, while it also plans tariffs of 25% on US pork and pork products. Furthermore, there were also comments from Mofcom that China doesn’t want a trade war but is not afraid of one, while the ministry added it hopes US will be prudent in its decisions and pulls back from the ‘brink’. Some tangential events:

  • Russia’s Ministry of Trade and Industry said they are preparing restrictions on US imports as a response to US aluminium and steel tariffs.
  • EU’s Tusk states that EU leaders have called for a permanent exemption from US tariffs.
  • The US launched a WTO complaint over China’s “discriminatory technology licensing requirements”.
  • Source reports indicate that China intervened overnight to support its stock market after tariff announcements triggered losses.

Asian stocks saw hefty losses amid trade war fears with ASX 200 (-2.0%) led lower by miners as Chinese metals prices slumped on steel demand and tariff concerns, while Nikkei 225 (-4.5%) was the worst performer and briefly fell over 1000 points as selling pressure was magnified by a firmer JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-3.4%) conformed to the sell-off as Chinese stocks felt the pinch from the US trade offensive, while the PBoC refrained from open market operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 320bln…
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Hostage Situation Unfolding At Supermarket In Southern France; ISIS Claims Responsibility

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An unidentified person has taken hostages at a supermarket in South France after earlier firing at police officers.

The situation is unfolding in the commune of Trebes, part of Aude Prefecture. A police operation is underway.


⚠️ Opération en cours secteur Super U Trèbes.

Secteur interdit ⚠️

Merci de faciliter l’accès aux forces de l’ordre.

— Préfecture de l’Aude (@Prefet11) March 23, 2018

A gunman is believed to be holding several people hostage at a Super U in the commune of Trebes. The gunman reportedly entered the shop just before 11 am, according to the Daily Mail.



Shortly before the hostage situation began, an armed man shot and injured a police officer in the city of Carcassonne, about 15 minutes by car from Trebes. It isn’t yet clear whether the two incidents are related.

Police have surrounded the supermarket…


ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack – but police haven’t confirmed any details.

Al menos un CRS @PoliceNationale ha sido herido en el incidente.

Se confirma que hay un tiroteo y hay rehenes en el supermercado.

— RO-1 (@Undercover_Camo) March 23, 2018

This is a developing story. Check back for updates…

Starbucks Chairman: “We Took A Walk On Madison Avenue. It Reminded Me Of The Financial Crisis In 2008″

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Back in June 2009, in one of our earliest posts in the aftermath of the financial crisis, we took a "random walk down Madison Avenue" and found empty storefront after empty storefront after empty storefront.

In retrospect, the ghost town that was New York's "Golden Mile" was not surprising: after all the US economy had just been hit with the worst recession since the Great Depression, and only an emergency liquidity injection of trillions of dollars prevented a global financial collapse.

What is more surprising is why nearly 9 years later, at a time of what is supposed to be a coordinated global recovery, a walk along Madison Avenue reveals the exact same picture.

But don't take our word for it: here is Starbucks Executive Chairman Howard Schultz speaking during the company's annual general meeting on Wednesday, and making some stunning observations.

From the transcript:

… let me shift just quickly into the business a bit and what's going on in terms of the seismic change that we're all witnessing in terms of consumer behavior in Retail.

No, I wasn't clairvoyant three years or four years ago, but I did notice something and you didn't have to be a genius to figure it out that the e-commerce effect of things was going to have a dramatic effect on people physically shopping for goods and services. And that has resulted in a tremendous level of compression in terms of the amount of retailers that are serving customers today because less customers are coming into their stores and that has resulted in unfortunately many, many stores national, regional, and local going out of business.

Now this is a photo as you can see of a mall that is very, very busy with people shopping for goods and services. Unfortunately, that was then, this is now. And it's a dramatic change. And what it means and you saw this today and what we've tried to present to you is that we've got a push for reinvention and innovation and we have to do – everything we can to become a primary destination.

Now, as a result of what we're witnessing, we're also seeing something else and that

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One Trader Is Rethinking European Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

It’s tough to get excited about European stocks these days.

Although they had a decent run in 2017, they were still trounced by their American counterparts.

It’s difficult to compete with the Trump tax cut excitement, and let’s face it, a steadily rising Euro is a tough headwind to sail into.

Although there has been all sorts of talk about global synchronized growth, the truth of the matter is that the European economy has been slowly rolling over for the past quarter. Have a look at this chart of the Citibank Eco surprise index of the American economy versus the Eurozone. This indicator measures economic activity versus expectations. As economic numbers are released that beat expectations, the index rises. Conversely, economic numbers that disappoint versus forecasts cause the index to fall.

The American economy started to underperform expectations in late December, but has since stabilized. Not so for the European economy. It has deteriorated at an increasing rate.

But is the US stock market outperformance and the Citibank economic indicator truly representative of what is going on in Europe?

I was stunned by a recent chart created by Bloomberg reporter Ksenia Galouchko that showed the EBITDA trend of the S&P 500 versus the EuroStoxx 600 over the past few years.

As might be expected, the EBITDA margins for Americans companies have vastly outperformed European ones since the Great Financial Crisis. Both countries’ margins slipped in 2009, but the US quickly rebounded while European companies lagged. I have my theories why this might be, but they are controversial. Europe suffered from an unnecessary economic slump that was the result of excessively tight monetary policies and severely restrictive fiscal programs (don’t forget that Trichet raised rates twice in 2011 only having to quickly retract those hikes as the European economy collapsed and don’t get me started about how tightening fiscal policy works in a balance sheet recession). But arguing about proper policy is useless, the real question is what is happening today and what might that mean for markets.

Have a look at this same chart, except this time I expanded the time line and included the ECB Total Balance sheet series.

Interestingly, the EBITDA ratio peaked at exactly the moment the ECB started
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French Voters Turn On Macron: Violence Erupts On Paris Streets As Workers Protest Labor Reforms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

That didn’t take long.

Less than a year after French President Emmanuel Macron rode a wave of reformist optimism to the Elysee Palace, France’s vast body of public-sector workers have turned against the country’s youngest-ever president as his attempts to loosen France’s restrictive labor laws have met with an outraged response from France’s 5.4 million civil servants and workers on its state-run rail system.

Rail workers are using Thursday’s demonstrations as the start of a prolonged strike that could last until June. Specifically, rail workers are protesting Macron’s plan to cut some of the special employment rights for rail workers. From April 3 until June 28, rail unions have planned strikes for two days out of every five.

Macron famously prevailed in a runoff election last Spring, where he defeated National Front candidate Marine Le Pen after founding his own centrist, reform-oriented political movement called En Marche – or “Forward!” in English.


For his part, Macron is hoping the public will respect him for standing firm, and maybe even that the broader public will find the strikes exasperating.

The strike was expected to lead to the cancellation of 60% of fast trains, 75% of inter-city trains and about 30% of Paris airports’ flights throughout the day.


A Les Echos poll showed just over half of French people backed Thursday’s strike – but an even larger majority are pushing for the reforms, including cutting the number of public sector workers, what the Express described as a “paradox.”

“We are going to continue reforming France in depth … with the certitude that our country needs this transformation to make up for the ground lost over previous decades,” Macron told reporters during a trip to India last week.

As the Guardian explains, Thursday’s strike date was deliberately chosen to echo the start of nationwide protests in 1968 that led to the country’s biggest ever strikes and the notorious street battles between police and students of May 1968.


As Express reported, students clashed with riot police on Thursday, who fired tear gas to disperse the crowds.

Unions had previously struggled to unite crowds against Macron’s reforms. But Thursday was the first protest that brought together both public sector workers, students and railway workers. 

“It’s a real mess this morning,” Didier Samba, who…
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Swiss Foundation Gets $30 Million To Start “Non-Volatile” Cryptocurrency

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via,

A group of financiers will create a “complimentary global currency” subject to random identity checks and pegged to fiat, Financial Times reports March 22.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Discussing plans for Saga, which will feature a Swiss foundation and advice from various banking figures, chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and ex-governor of the Bank of Israel Jacob Frenkel said there was appetite for a notionally non-volatile cryptocurrency.

The foundation has already accrued $30mln in investments, and plans to issue tokens at an initial price of $0, these “entitling its investors to a rising number of Saga as usage of the cryptocurrency grows.”

“While Blockchain technologies have gained growing acceptance, encryptic currencies have raised public policy concerns, since they are anonymous, unbacked, and are highly volatile,” Frenkel told the publication.

“I share these concerns and see great value in Saga’s vision to address them properly.”

The move appears to be a fresh admission of the virtues of cryptographic technology for issuing and supporting new global currencies from the banking sector amid an ongoing trend. However, organizers are up-front about the highly-controlled nature of all aspects of Saga’s timeline.

Purchasing tokens “will require owners to pass anti-money laundering checks and allow national authorities to check the identity of a Saga holder when required,” providing zero anonymity.

“We are not aiming for Saga to replace any national fiat currencies, but to be a complementary global currency,” Saga founder and president Ido Sadeh Man continued.

“We are targeting people who are holding digital currencies and looking for safe harbours from the raging volatility.”

Facebook Fines Not Enough: Open Markets Institute Demands Full-Restructuring “To Protect Democracy”

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

It appears Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg's non-apology apology statement and robotic CNN interview, that he feels bad and is sorry, were not enough to quell the concerns of both shareholders and regulators as the Open Markets Institute demands that The FTC restructure Facebook and lays out 9 steps to achieve that…

Via The Guardian

Since news broke that a data analysis firm with ties to the Trump campaign harvested personal information from tens of millions of Facebook users, much of the speculation has focused on whether the Federal Trade Commission will fine the corporation for violating a 2011 deal to protect user privacy.

But the pressing nature of America’s Facebook problem, especially the way the corporation’s actions have endangered basic democratic institutions, means the FTC should go much further.

Facebook has too much power over America’s communications infrastructure. And Facebook’s failure to manage that power responsibly has made it too easy for Russian hackers to spread propaganda and disinformation, even while making it too hard for trustworthy American journalists and editors to do their jobs. This is a direct threat to American democracy, and the government must act now,” said Barry Lynn, Executive Director of Open Markets.

If the next set of FTC commissioners truly are serious about making Facebook serve the interests of the American public, here is a set of actions they should begin to take on day one.

Every one of these action has a strong foundation in US law and practice:

1) Impose strict privacy rules on Facebook, perhaps using Europe’s new General Data Protection Regulation as a guide.

2) Spin off Facebook’s ad network. This will eliminate, in one swoop, most of the incentive that Facebook now has to amass data and to interfere and discriminate in the provision of information and news.

3) Reverse the approvals for Facebook purchases of WhatsApp and Instagram, and re-establish these as competing social networks.

4) Prohibit all future acquisitions by Facebook for at least five years.

5) Establish a system to ensure the transparency of all political communications on Facebook, similar to other major communication networks in the United States.

6) Require Facebook to adopt open

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Phil's Favorites

The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI


The existential case for ditching Alexa and other AI

Robert Couse-Baker/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Brendan Canavan, University of Huddersfield

Alexa’s creepy laugh is far from the most worrying thing about her. This is despite the fact that Amazon’s digital assistant – which allows users to access the internet and control personal organisation tools simply by speaking to the device – has been reported to spontaneously chuckle to herself. We shouldn’t be too concerned about he...

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Zero Hedge

Trader Shares "A Few Ideas For Avoiding A Friday Faceplant"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Bloomberg macro commentator, Richard Breslow

Don’t mistake this as a trade recommendation, but it is all right to do nothing. Trading when you believe you have an edge is when it is time to step in. If you are there, then go for it. But trading merely because things are moving around is a day-trading concept, not an investment thesis.

It’s important to match trading style, objectives and realistic liquidity assumptions to how you view volatility vs risk. They are very much not the same thing. Made even more so if you think the Fed equity put has been eliminated. It hasn&#...

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Insider Scoop

41 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (NASDAQ: OMEX) shares climbed 118.42 percent to close at $8.30 on Thursday after the company disclosed positive Mexico Court Decision nullifying a previous denial of application for Don Diego project.
  • Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) shares gained 35.31 percent to close at $15.75. The maker of a cataract surgery drug called Omidria realized a "big win" from Wednesday's release of the U.S. government spending bill, according to Stat News. Specifically, a policy included in the spending bill includes a pass-through exte... more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Cycles Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker. uses Bartel's logic to find dominant cycles in a time series.

Cycles are present in markets, as shown below the 22 and 40 day cycles on calendar days looks like the best fit. Therefore the chart below suggest we can expect a bitcoin low either now or in a few weeks.

Bitcoin has not been effected by the SP500/Dow sell off which is a very bullish sign, bitcoin may see safe haven money chasing price very soon, add to this the sister coin, litecoin, isgetting ready for wider use with the massive e-commerce payment market (litepay, litepal, atomic swamps, lightening network).

The bitcoin move is not over!


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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Speaks With CNBC's "Power Lunch" Today

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

WHEN: Today, Thursday, March 22, 2018

WHERE: CNBC’s “Power Lunch”

Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F 1PM – 3PM) today, Thursday, March 22nd. Following are links to video from the interview on

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.


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Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>