Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Pope Proposes New Sin: Thou Shalt Not Destroy The Harmony Of The Environment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Pope Francis is fed up with deniers, so much so he is on the verge of declaring a new sin.

Pope Francis proposes Adding ‘Ecological Sin’ to Church Teachings.

Pope Francis, who has made the environment a signature cause of his pontificate, said he was strongly considering adding the category of “ecological sin” to the Catholic Church’s official compendium of teachings.

Pope Francis has stressed the importance of environmental protection since his election in 2013. He dedicated an entire encyclical, “Laudato Si,’” published in 2015, to the topic.

In that document, he called global warming a major threat to life on the planet and called for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. He also blamed the global market economy for plundering the earth at the expense of the poor and future generations.

In 2016, the pope added environmentalism, or “care for our common home,” to the Catholic Church’s traditional seven works of mercy. He also added it to the Beatitudes, the core set of Christian ideals such as meekness and mercy enunciated by Jesus in the Bible, saying: “Blessed are those who protect and care for our common home.”

On Friday, he said he was considering going further. “We must introduce—we are thinking—into the Catechism of the Catholic Church the sin against ecology, the ecological sin against the common home, because it’s a duty,” the pope told an audience of legal experts at the Vatican.

He noted that bishops from the Amazon region meeting at the Vatican in October had defined ecological sin as an “action or omission against God, against others, the community and the environment. It is a sin against future generations and is manifested in the acts and habits of pollution and destruction of the harmony of the environment.”

12th Sin On Deck

Thou Shalt Not Be a Climate Change Denier.

Meanwhile, the sun has ‘reached solar minimum’ and its surface is ominously calm.

There's also a raging debate over whether this will be a 'grand solar minimum' with global cooling.

Repent Now!

Finally please consider Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures

and the World Will End in 12 Years.

But there are only 11 years left now (we've already wasted a year), so please repent while you still can.

 

 





Morgan Stanley Capitulates: Upgrades Global Stocks To Neutral, No Longer Sees A Recession In 2020

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Just over 4 months ago, on July 8, Morgan Stanley took a defiant position against the bullish consensus, and in a note penned by the bank's chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, he said that "we’re putting our money where our mouth is" and downgraded "both equities and credit" to underweight while going equal-weight government bonds and overweight cash.

Specifically, the bank said that in light of concerns that "bad data should be feared rather than cheered because it will bring more central bank easing" (it most certainly did, and just three months later the Fed launched QE4), and that "the market is too optimistic on 2019 earnings and is underestimating the pressure from inventories, labour costs and trade uncertainty" (here too the bank was right because Q3 earnings season is now effectively over with S&P EPS down more than 2% and Q4 EPS are also projected to also drop as an earnings recession accelerated), the "time has come to put our money where our mouth is. In light of these concerns and others, we are downgrading our allocation to global equities from equal-weight to underweight."

The most straightforward reason for this shift is simple – we project poor returns: Over the next 12 months, there is now just 1% average upside to Morgan Stanley’s price targets for the S&P 500, MSCI Europe, MSCI EM and Topix Japan (including dividends and equally weighted). If we ignore those targets and estimate returns for those same regions based on current valuations, adjusting for whether returns tend to be better or worse given current economic data, the upside is very similar (3%).

Morgan Stanley also underscored its bearish case by pointing out that its Business Conditions Index had just tumbled to the lowest level on record.

Putting it all together, Morgan Stanley then concluded that "there comes a point for every analyst where you need to change your forecast or change your view. We’re doing the latter."

It did… but not for long, because after fielding countless angry client calls with the S&P now above 3,100, and the Dow and Nasdaq also at all time highs, all the while advising said clients not to


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Too Fast, Too Furious – Hedging For A Short-Term Correction

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The “QE, Not QE” Rally Is On

Last week, we discussed the “QE, Not QE” rally:

“Just recently, we released a study for our RIAPro Subscribers (30-Day Free Trial) on historical QE programs and what sectors,  markets, and commodities perform best. (If you subscribe for a 30-day Free Trial you can read the entire report ‘An Investor’s Guide To QE-4.’)”

‘On October 9, 2019, the Federal Reserve announced a resumption of quantitative easing (QE). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell went to great lengths to make sure he characterized the new operation as something different than QE. Like QE 1, 2, and 3, this new action involves a series of large asset purchases of Treasury securities conducted by the Fed. The action is designed to pump liquidity and reserves into the banking system.

Regardless of the nomenclature, what matters to investors is whether this new action will have an effect on asset prices similar to prior rounds of QE. For the remainder of this article, we refer to the latest action as QE 4.’

The following is one of the tables from the article.

As you will notice, all major markets increased in value during QE-1, 2, and 3.

Regardless, whether you believe the Fed’s actions are “QE,” “QE-Lite,” of “Not QE at all” is largely irrelevant.

During the past few weeks, we have discussed the probability of a year-end rally, which would be supported by both the Fed, and a “trade deal.”  The following links will catch you up on our premise.

With the Fed cutting rates, Trump touting “trade deals,” and now “tax cuts for the middle class,” not to mention the Federal Reserve increasing their balance sheet, it should not surprising markets have rallied over the last 5-weeks as shown below.


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The Market’s Day Of Reckoning Looms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Well, they’ve done it again. By “they” I of course mean the US Federal Reverse and all the other central banks combined. Synchronized global easing it is called and the once again giant inflows of artificial liquidity are dominating the price action in markets irrespective what’s going on with earnings or growth. The stock market is not the economy, the economy is not the stock market. The stock market is liquidity and the stock market is the primary tool with which central banks want to control the trajectory of the economy. It’s the unspoken but increasingly recognized truth.

The Fed still insists on hiding behind statements such as ‘the economy is in a good place’ while Q4 GDP growth has dropped to 0.3% to 0.4% according to the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed, but hey, they got to keep confidence up.

Fact is everything has changed in October when the Fed announce it’s “not QE” program which in fact is recognized by markets as QE and so the Fed, unable to ever meet its inflation targets, focuses on asset price inflation and very much succeeding in the one area of the economy they claim to have no role in.

Here’s Citi: 

“Despite the Fed’s protestations that its adjustment to bank reserves is not QE, its turnaround this year has helped drive global central bank securities purchases from 10-year lows to decade-average levels…central banks’ inability to create inflation has caused them to underestimate the extent to which they are driving up asset prices. Yet this misunderstanding makes them all the more likely to carry on.”

Whether this ‘misunderstanding’ is willful ignorance or blatant method I’ll leave for the reader to decide. But carry on they will, here via Bank of America: “Powell 2019 rate cuts & QE a success…Fed now on hold but QE remains supportive for risk (Fed + ECB will buy $420 billion in assets over next 6 months).”

So this liquidity machine will not stop and may well continue to squeeze markets higher toward a massive blow-off topping move. But it may not and rather end in ac valley of tears and I’ll discuss technicals further below.

Source: Bloomberg

But what a success QE has been so far: 6 weeks straight up in markets,…
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China Sails Carrier Strike Group Through Taiwan Straight After US Navy Transited Contested Waters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A Chinese aircraft carrier fleet has sailed through the highly contested waters in the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, just days after a US warship transited the region, reported Reuters

China's first domestically built aircraft carrier, known as the Type 002, was accompanied by a strike group as it sailed through the waterway from the East China Sea into the strait on Sunday, the Defense Ministry in Taipei said in a statement. 

Last Tuesday, the US Navy sent the USS Chancellorsville, a guided-missile cruiser, on a "routine Taiwan Strait transit," the navy said.

As a result of Type 002 and its strike group transiting the strait, Taiwanese military authorities scrambled fighter jets to monitor the continuing situation.  

China's latest move came as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen named former Prime Minister William Lai as her running mate for the 2020 election. Lai has previously angered Beijing for supporting the island nation's independence.

Type 002 was trailed by the US and Japanese warships as it transited in a southerly direction through the strait, Taiwan's defense ministry said.

 US Defense Secretary Mark Esper recently slammed China for its reckless behavior in the Indo-Pacific region.

"Beijing is increasingly resorting to coercion and intimidation to advance its strategic objectives at the expense of other nations," Esper said. 

Beijing has called Taiwan "the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations" and has threatened to take the island nation by force. 

In early November, Taiwan warned if Beijing can't create a soft landing in its economy, the threat of a Chinese invasion could be nearing. 

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu sounded the alarm in a Reuters interview on Nov. 7, when he said, Chinese officials would likely invade Taiwan to divert domestic economic pressures if a soft landing cannot be achieved. 

"If the internal stability is a very serious issue, or economic slowdown has become a very serious issue for the top leaders to deal with, that is


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Billion-Dollar-A-Day Crypto Trading Firm Says It’s Now Taking Outside Money

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Most crypto traders handling any kind of money know to take security seriously. One never knows what hackers, and sometimes even real-life kidnappers, are waiting on an opportunity to steal someone's crypto riches – especially if they have a reputation. With the stakes so high, big-time market participants have gone to great lengths to conceal their identities, unless they have a specific reason not to.

For Alameda Research, a trading firm that found itself at the center of a Bloomberg story entitled "Billion-Dollar-a-Day Crypto Trader Finds Accolades Are Better Than Anonymity", their reason is this: After years of primarily trading their own money, they're opening for business.

Sam Bankman-Fried

The firm recently launched a new over-the-counter trading desk that, according to BBG, caters "largely to Asian clientele". Though the story largely focuses on the history of the firm and its "increasingly sophisticated" arbitrage strategies (Alameda founder Sam Bankman-Fried says he's trying to make 2 basis points per trade, extremely cutting-edge stuff), we found the tidbits intended to entice new clients far more interesting.

For example, Bankman-Fried's biggest innovation appears to be leveraging the BitMex "leaderboard" as an imperfect record of the firm's successes. After going public earlier this year, Alameda's trading accounts have consistently ranked in the top tier of BitMex's highest-earning accounts.

It's not a complete track record, but it's about the best there is.

"For those companies that manage money, the leader boards can act as a type of track record that could be used to market their own services," said Lex Sokolin, global financial technology co-head at ConsenSys, which offers blockchain technology. "While not as rigorous as an audited track record, it is still better than nothing."

With so much turmoil in the world, and with Beijing continuing its crackdown on capital outflows, making it increasingly difficult to trade crypto on the mainland, we imagine Alameda Research is well-positioned to take on more business, particularly in that ever-lucrative mainland market. 

Of course, when it comes to personal safety, being so "out there" can have its drawbacks. But that's something everybody in crypto must wrestle with.


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Saudis Admit Aramco Not Worth $2 Trillion: “It’s A Much Tougher Sell Now”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

On Sunday morning, a series of headlines from Reuters notes that Saudi Aramco has finally set a price range for its IPO between $1.6 to $1.7 trillion, far below the $2 trillion levels the Saudi crown prince had imagined for the last several years, but priced higher than most institutional analysts

  • SAUDI ARAMCO SETS INDICATIVE PRICE RANGE OF 30/32 RIYALS PER SHARE-SOURCES

  • SAUDI ARAMCO’S VALUATION AT $1.7 TRLN AT TOP END OF ANNOUNCED PRICE RANGE-ACCORDING TO REUTERS CALCULATIONS

Aramco said Sunday it would sell 1.5% of its shares (3 billion shares) for around $8 per share, valuing the IPO around $25.6 billion. 

Over $25 billion would be a record-breaking IPO value amount, which would eclipse the amount Alibaba Group Holding Limited raised in its 2014 IPO debuted. 

Several sources told Reuters that Aramco has no intention to list in the US. 

  • SAUDI ARAMCO NO LONGER USING 144A RULE FOR DOMESTIC IPO, MEANING IT WILL NOT MARKET THE SECURITIES IN THE UNITED STATES – TWO SOURCES

Aramco’s elevated valuation has been a difficult sell to institutional investors amid the emergence of climate activism in the West, and the concern that medium to long-term oil demand is slowing as a global synchronized slowdown gains momentum. 

Notably, even at this lower-than-$2trillion valuations, it remains notably rich to analysts’ expectationsAccording to 40 percent of 24 investors surveyed by Bloomberg, Aramco’s value is between US$1.2 trillion and US$1.5 trillion. Nearly all banks have huge gaps in their low-end and high-end valuations. The valuations from 16 banks that have come up with estimates range from as low as US$1.1 trillion to as high as US$2.5 trillion, Bloomberg says, quoting people who have reviewed all estimates.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a Middle East-dominated producer group of 14 countries, led by Saudi Arabia, has recently cut its forecast for global oil demand. It expects consumption in…
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Hong Kong Police Officier Shot With Arrow As Fiery University Standoff Rages

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Following a week of Hong Kong student protesters occupying the city's university campuses where severe clashes with riot police have witnessed increasingly brazen and dangerous tactics such as using javelins and bows and arrows against police lines, security forces are looking to clear the last one at Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) on Sunday.

Early last week protesters took control of Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) campus, and from there the war to control the city's academic centers was on.

A police officer was shot with an arrow Sunday.

 

At each, students raided sports equipment storehouses and could be seen setting up makeshift petrol bomb factories on sports fields.

Given the escalation in tactics, including deadly weapons such as bows and arrows, HK police have now designated the students occupying the university as "rioters"

Conviction for 'rioting' in Hong Kong brings a mandatory prison sentence, thus the new designation is considered a significant new step by police. 

And now at least one police officer has been shot with an arrow amid a chaotic scene that's included student barricades and metal spikes set up on roadways.

Students have also been utilizing homemade catapults and slingshots, and hurling rocks, bricks, and desks off of campus buildings.

The injured officer has been described as part of police media liaison office. An arrow reportedly launched from the student side struck his leg and pierced through to the other side, as photographs showed of the gruesome injury.

He was said to be conscious when transported to the hospital and is expected to recover.

A police


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Even With Better Education, Millennials Earn 20% Less Than Baby Boomers, Study Finds

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The generational wealth gap has widened to historic levels, according to a recent study comparing millennial earnings to older generations', according to CNBC.

When adjusted for inflation, millennials earn 20% less than baby boomers did at the same stage in their careers, according to the study, entitled "the Emerging Millennial Wealth Gap". Median incomes for workers aged 18 to 34 are way down from their levels in the 1980s. The disparity is nothing new: Other studies have arrived at a similar conclusion. Despite being the most well-educated generation of all time (aside from Gen Z, probably), millennials earn comparatively less than their older peers did during similar periods.

Nearly 40% of millennials have at least a bachelor's degree, compared with 25% of baby boomers, and 30% of Gen Xers during the same period.

The lower wages will likely lead to long-term problems for millennials, the experts said. Already, many millennials are struggling with jobs that are either inconsistent, like contract or freelance work (which doesn't offer benefits), or don't pay enough. This is already having a serious impact on their ability to build wealth, since most millennials still can't afford basics like their own home. For prior generations, homes were important tools for building wealth, in addition to providing a place to live.

Among young families, households headed by someone under the age of 35 in 2016 had an average net worth of $10,900, roughly half the level from 1995.

Much of this disparity stems from the Great Recession. Those who entered the workforce in its aftermath came in with low wages, leaving them at a career disadvantage. Many are also struggling with the $1.4 trillion-plus pile of student loan debt that has been accumulated by American students. For many, student debt payments make building wealth and buying homes unthinkable.

"Even as the economy steadily added back jobs lost, the protracted recovery was experienced unevenly, with well-off households doing better at the expense of others," said Reid Cramer, director of the office that oversaw the study.

Using data from the St. Louis Fed, CNBC put together a generational "balance sheet" to illustrate how economic


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For Sale: Gently-Used ICBM Silo In Arizona Desert

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Looking for a fixer-upper to kick back, relax and survive a nuclear apocalypse? Look no further!

Located 20 minutes outside of Tucson, Arizona underneath 12 acres of land, potential buyers are looking at a "BOLD opportunity to owned a decommissioned Titan II missile complex" of their own – for just $395,000!

According to the listing:

This property was once one of the most top secret of government assets and is now ready to fulfill a new mission. That mission is for you to define amongst the limitless scenarios. Secure storage facility? Underground bunker? Remarkable residence – literally living down under? The property is situated on a 12 + acre parcel with boundless views. Private yet not too remote.

The new owner will enter their 'quaint' complex via a ladder which descends into the missile Launch Control Complex (LCC) – where "three Titan II crewmen, the Missile Combat Crew Commander, the Deputy Missile Combat Crew Commander, Ballistic Missile Analyst Technician, and the Missile Facilities Technician lived in shifts," according to Popular Mechanics.

Some background on Titan II missile facilities:

The Titan II missile entered service with the U.S. Air Force in 1963. Titan II was an intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of being launched from the U.S. and striking targets across the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Soviet Union and China. The Titan II carried a single W-53 thermonuclear warhead with the explosive power of 9 megatons, or 9,000,000 tons of TNT. By comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was a relatively paltry 16,000 tons of TNT.

Titan II was also the first U.S. missile that was based in missile silos. These silos were sprinkled across the U.S., and some were parked outside Tuscon, Arizona. – Popular Mechanics

Sure, you'll have to deal with the rust, and there's no internal plumbing (septic system required) or electricity, or water – BUT the listing notes that the buyer is welcome to drill for a well. 

 

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Pope Proposes New Sin: Thou Shalt Not Destroy The Harmony Of The Environment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Pope Francis is fed up with deniers, so much so he is on the verge of declaring a new sin.

Pope Francis proposes ...



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Phil's Favorites

What is an oligarch?

 

What is an oligarch?

Boris Yeltsin shakes hands with Russia’s most powerful businessmen in Moscow. AP Photo

Courtesy of Joel Samuels, University of South Carolina

With the impeachment hearings for President Donald Trump under way, several American diplomats and ...



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The Technical Traders

When Oil Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months. 

In Part I and ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Insider Scoop

Glass House Group Appoints Graham Farrar As President

Courtesy of Benzinga

Glass House Group, a California-based cannabis and hemp company, earlier this week appointed Graham Farrar as president.

In his new role, Graham will oversee the company’s short and long-term business strategies, budgets and operations, and report up to Glass House Group CEO Kyle Kazan.

A long-time entrepreneur and an original team member of both Sonos (NASDAQ: SONO...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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