Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

A definitive breakdown of the gloomy state on Wall Street (Business Insider)

While Wall Street bank revenues appeared to bounce back in the first quarter of 2017, with banks posting strong results in fixed income trading in particular, industry-wide revenues were still down on the same period from 2012 to 2015. 

Vietnam's Prime Minister Says He's Confident of 6.7% Growth Goal (Bloomberg)

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said he is confident economic growth this year will meet a goal of 6.7 percent without adding to inflation, despite weak expansion last quarter.

Early China Data Shows Slowdown Biting Amid Credit Tightening (Bloomberg)

The first hints of China’s economic performance this month suggest that a slowdown in growth is taking hold, as policy makers beef up efforts to clamp down on financial risks.

Beyond Batteries: Other Ways to Capture and Store Energy (The Wall Street Journal)

Unlike oil, which can be stored in tanks, and natural gas, which can be kept in underground caverns, electricity has been a challenge to bottle.

This is the future of investing, and you probably can't afford it (Business Insider)

Big money investors have always sought an edge. Everything from star traders to fast computers to unique analysis can give a big hedge fund an advantage over competitors. The latest battleground is data.

Jobs report; ExxonMobil's big meeting; Earnings season winds down (CNN)

A strong report could bolster the case for another interest rate hike. The Federal Reserve has already said it will likely raise rates in June -- a sign it's confident in the economy's health. The Fed last triggered a hike in March.

A legendary hedge fund that raised $5 billion in 24 hours expects 'all hell to break loose' (Business Insider)

A hedge fund led by an investing legend expects "all hell to break loose."

Billionaire Paul Singer's Elliott Management, which raised $5 billion in less than 24 hours earlier this month, says it has been building up its cash reserve to deploy during future market turmoil.

Asian markets shrug off latest North Korean missile test (Market Watch)

Global equity markets had


continue reading





Merkel Bashes Trump, Wants Europe to Control Its Own Destiny: EU Hypocrites

Courtesy of Mish.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warns the traditional western alliance is threatened by new Donald Trump and Brexit.

Her solution: “We Europeans Must Take Our Destiny Into Our Own Hands”.

Angela Merkel has suggested Germany and Europe can no longer rely on the US under Donald Trump.

Speaking at a campaign event held in a Bavarian beer tent, the German Chancellor emphasized the need for friendly relations with the US, Britain, and Russia, but added: “We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands. The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days.”

While Germany and Europe would strive to maintain relations with the US and Britain, Ms. Merkel said, “we need to know we must fight for our own future as Europeans for our destiny.”

Her comments came after Mr. Trump said he needed more time to decide if the US would continue backing the Paris climate deal, which has frustrated European diplomats.

Mr. Trump, who has previously called global warming a hoax, came under concerted pressure from the other leaders to honor the 2015 Paris Agreement on curbing carbon emissions.

G7 leaders went on to blame the US for the failure to reach an agreement on climate change, in an unusually frank statement which read: “The United States of America is in the process of reviewing its policies on climate change and on the Paris Agreement and thus is not in a position to join the consensus on these topics.

Mr. Trump has reportedly told “confidants” including the head of the Environmental Protection Agency Scott Pruitt, he wants the US to leave the international agreement on climate change, the Axios news outlet reported, citing three sources with direct knowledge.

I will make my final decision on the Paris Accord next week!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 27, 2017

EU Global Warming Hypocrites

Wikipedia has a nice discussion on Diesel Exhaust.

EU Extends Tariffs on Solar Panels

On March 3, PV Europe reported EU import tariffs on Chinese solar modules and cells extended by 18 months.

The higher the price, the less solar energy


continue reading





Homeland Security Ponders Laptop Ban On All International Flights: Surefire Way to Stop Bombs on Planes

Courtesy of Mish.

US Homeland Security chief John Kelly says terrorists are ‘obsessed’ with planes. As a result, Kelly says a Laptop Ban May Expand to All International Flights.

Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly said he may ban laptop computers in the cabins of all international flights into and out of the U.S. amid continuing terrorist threats to bring down airplanes, but that a final decision hadn’t been made.

“That’s really the thing that they’re obsessed with, the terrorists: the idea of knocking down an airplane in flight, particularly if it’s a U.S. carrier, particularly if it’s full of mostly U.S. folks,” Kelly said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Kelly said the department’s Transportation Security Administration “might and likely will” intensify scrutiny of carry-on luggage as well, because travelers are packing more into them to avoid airlines’ bag-checking fees.

“The more you stuff in there, the less the TSA professionals that are looking at what’s in those bags through the monitors” are able to discern about bags’ contents, he said. “What we’re doing now is working out the tactics, techniques and procedures, if you will, in a few airports to find out exactly how to do that with the least amount of inconvenience to the traveler.”

At the same time, Kelly alluded to the possibility that improved bag-screening devices could soon alleviate the need for such strict procedures.

“There’s new technologies down the road, not too far down the road, that we’ll rely on,” he said.

At least four of the largest companies making such devices have said recently they are developing scanners so much better at detecting explosives than existing X-ray machines that passengers could leave laptops, other electronics and even liquids in their bags.

Why Stop With Laptops?

Is it any harder to hide a bomb in a laptop than a camera, camera lens, electronic toy, flashlight, battery charger, or any number of other items that people might carry on planes?

I remember a time long ago when agents randomly took off a lens cap and looked through the camera. That is no longer done. But even that might not work.

Why not make a bomb that looks like a battery and fits in the battery compartment of a camera? One could even look through the camera and see it works. How about a few extra “batteries” to boot?


continue reading





Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

China central bank denies reports it told banks to deposit dollars (Reuters)

China's central bank has not adopted any measures requiring commercial banks to deposit dollars with it, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Friday.

China Considers Changing Yuan Fixing Formula to Curb Swings (Bloomberg)

China is considering changes to the way it calculates the yuan’s daily reference rate against the dollar, a move that’s likely to reduce exchange-rate volatility while undermining efforts to increase the role of market forces in Asia’s largest economy.

China Exerts More Control Over Its Currency With Tweak to Yuan Fix (The Wall Street Journal)

China’s central bank said it was tweaking the mechanism for setting the yuan’s daily fix to smooth out fluctuations against the dollar, an acknowledgment that the country is hitching the yuan’s value closer to the U.S. currency.

China's reforms not enough to arrest mounting debt: Moody's (Reuters)

China's structural reforms will slow the pace of its debt build-up but will not be enough to arrest it, and another credit rating cut for the country is possible down the road unless it gets its ballooning credit in check, officials at Moody's said.

Wall Street to CEOs: Disrupt Your Industry, or Else (The Wall Street Journal)

Investors and boards long obsessed with quarterly profits are now hunting for leaders to make big, fast bets to fend off upstarts shooting for the moon.

Traders can make a killing chasing the 'smart money' (Business Insider)

To profit from the stock market, be sure to follow the "smart money." Just figure out where hedge funds are investing, and then do the same.

It's a strategy that would have worked this year if executed properly, as the stocks most widely held by hedge funds have outperformed the broader market.

China's teapot refiners set to slow crude imports as tanks overflow (Reuters)

As OPEC extends production cuts in a bid to tighten the oil market, China's independent refiners – awash with crude and facing disappointing local demand – are poised to slow purchases of oil for at least the next two months.

Big stock market
continue reading





Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oversold: Oil traders punish OPEC for promising too much (Reuters)

VIENNA As OPEC's latest meeting wrapped up in Vienna on Thursday night, ministers congratulated each other on its rare spirit of amity and consensus. The talks were, without a doubt, a success.

Here’s what Trump’s head of the FDA wants to do about high drug prices (Business Insider)

Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb has a plan to tackle high drug prices. 

"Simply put, too many patients are priced out of the medicines they need," Gottlieb said Thursday at the FDA's budget hearing.

HENRY BLODGET: Bitcoin could go to $1 million (or fall to $0) (Business Insider)

Henry Blodget discusses this week's bitcoin rally, and how the virtual currency could just as easily go to $1 million as it could fall to $0. Blodget has been covering bitcoin for several years, and has maintained the view that ultimately, it has no intrinsic value.

Atlanta Fed pares U.S. second-quarter GDP growth estimate to 3.7 percent (Reuters)

The U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 3.7 percent annualized pace in the second quarter based on reports released earlier this week that showed decreases in new and existing home sales in April, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Friday.

Big auto lender only checked 8% of applicants' incomes (CNN)

Alarm bells are ringing because one of the largest subprime auto lenders in the nation — Santander Consumer USA — only checked the incomes of 8% of its applicants, according to a new report from Moody's Investors Service. Subprime refers to loans made to people with poor credit.

The SEC's Credibility GAAP (Bloomberg)

The Securities and Exchange Commission is letting a number of large companies get away with questionable accounting based on some pretty lame excuses.

Trump's ignorance of the auto industry is terrifying (Business Insider)

Donald Trump sold himself as a presidential candidate who understood business, but since his victory he has demonstrated a frighteningly narrow grasp of modern, globalized industries.

The latest example? His comments on Germany's automakers.


continue reading





Lighten the Darkness

 

Lighten the Darkness

How dark money is subverting democracy in the UK.

By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 17th May 2017 (Dark money is pushing democracy in the UK over the edge)

How is this acceptable? A multimillionaire City asset manager has pledged to spend up to £700,000 on ousting Labour MPs who campaigned against Brexit. Jeremy Hosking will use his money to ensure that there is as little parliamentary opposition to a hard Brexit as possible. Why should multimillionaires be allowed to try to buy political results?

Allowed? That’s too soft a word. It is enabled by our pathetic, antiquated and anti-democratic rules on political spending. Hosking claims he wants to secure “the sovereign future of this independent-minded democracy”. But there is no greater threat to sovereignty, independence or democracy than the power money wields over our politics.

There are three categories of concern here. The first is transparent political funding, such as Hosking’s. Then there is opaque funding, that the Electoral Commission has so far failed to prevent: a shocking example has been uncovered by Peter Geoghegan and Adam Ramsay of openDemocracy.

We already know that a vast payment was made by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party (DUP) for a newspaper advertisement urging people to vote for Brexit. Remarkably, this ad was not circulated in Northern Ireland, but only in England and Scotland.

This might suggest that someone was making use of Northern Ireland’s secrecy regime. Political donations there remain hidden from view. Funders wishing to disguise their identities can use Northern Ireland as a back channel into UK politics. After sustained pressure, the DUP revealed that the money came from a donation of £425,622, passed through an organisation called the Constitutional Research Council.

But the original source remains a mystery. Though electoral law in Great Britain states that “a donation of more than £500 cannot be accepted … if the donation is from a source that cannot be identified”, the DUP claims that it doesn’t need to know who provided this money. All we know about the Constitutional Research Council is that it’s run by a man called Richard Cook, who lives in a small house outside Glasgow. He…
continue reading





Fun with Dow Stocks!

 

Fun with Dow Stocks!

Courtesy of Joshua Brown

This past week was the anniversary of Charles Dow’s creation of his Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896. Love it or hate it, the average has persisted for some 120 years as our most popular gauge of the health of Corporate America.

The original index was comprised of just 12 stocks, many of which were railroad companies – the tech stocks of their day. The first big change to the index came in 1916 when it was expanded, and then again in 1928. There was a major replacement of component companies in 1932 during the Depression. In 1997, stalwarts Bethlehem Steel, Westinghouse Electric, Woolworth and Texaco were replaced with Johnson & Johnson, Wal-Mart, Hewlett-Packard and Travelers, to better reflect the world we live in today.

Just for fun, I send you now over to this great interactive graphic from the Wall Street Journal. You can trace all of the ins and outs of the DJIA and even trace the history of inclusion on a company basis.

Have a blast!

The Ins and Outs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (WSJ)





Investigating Trends in Median Home Prices: When Did Price Acceleration Start?

Courtesy of Mish.

Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen re-blew the Alan Greenspan initiated housing bubble.

However, the trend towards higher and higher home prices started well before that dynamic trio made a mess of everything.

The following picture shows the true origin of escalating home prices.

Median Home Prices 1963-Present

To be fair, homes have gotten larger, with more features, better windows, etc. However, it is safe to say the explosion in credit that started when Nixon closed the gold window, ending convertibility of dollars for gold accounts, coupled with inane policies of the last three Fed Chairs accounts for nearly all of the price acceleration.

However, it is safe to say the explosion in credit that started when Nixon closed the gold window, ending convertibility of dollars for gold accounts, coupled with inane policies of the last three Fed Chairs accounts for nearly all of the price acceleration.

Real Homes of Genius

Dr. Housing Bubble provides an excellent example in Real Homes of Genius, including pictures of tiny homes listed for close to $500,000 in the Los Angeles area.


Continue reading here…





Saudi Arabia To Trim Oil Exports To US To Force Inventories Lower

Courtesy of Zainab Calcuttawala, OilPrice.com

Riyadh plans to purposely reduce exports to the United States to force a reduction in the latter’s sizeable inventories, which are preventing a greater rise in global oil prices, according to Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih.

Just one day after OPEC announced a nine-month extension to its November production cut deal, the top oil official told reporters on Friday that “exports to the U.S. will drop measurably.”

Two sources close to the matter told Bloomberg that starting next month, Saudi crude supplies to American importers will be reduced to below one million barrels a day next month – a 15 percent decrease from the monthly average so far in 2017.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) deal does not set limits on the amount any member country can export to its customers. This is why Saudi cargoes to the U.S. in recent months have totaled 1.21 million barrels a day – the highest rates since 2014, the year of the oil price crash. As the de facto leader and largest producer of OPEC, Saudi Arabia has cut its production the most of any member of the bloc. But stubbornly high fossil fuel inventories – which have been maintained worldwide, but are most readily measured in the U.S. due to open customs data – have prevented the measures from buttressing oil prices in a lasting way. Importer nations have opted to take advantage of low oil prices to stock up for the future.

The Energy Information Administration reports that American crude inventories have been on a downward trajectory in recent weeks, so the lower shipments may have a magnified impact as they are doled out.

Bloomberg also noted that Saudi Arabia generally has less oil to supply to the U.S. in summer months due to amplified domestic demand for cooling needs during the scorching desert summer.





One Bank Spots An “Amber Warning Sign” Inside The Vol Complex

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

In a time when record low volatility has spawned a cottage industry of vol and Vix experts, with analysts desperate to explain either why volatility is where it is [or where it will be next week], here the simplest explanation is [that] the record injection of liquidity by central banks pushing risk assets to all time highs [and] the fact that even hedge fund are barely trading as we showed last week (chart). [Even] though there is no causal link between backward-looking implied or realized vol and future events, few have come up with a comprehensive analysis or theory of which volatility metric is relevant or appropriate when discounting risk inflection points.

One such attempt, one of the better ones we have seen, comes from Deutsche Bank's Dominik Constam who in his latest Global Market Strategy letter believes he has found what may be a fulcrum predictive vol indicator which, as he writes overnight, is "an amber warning sign that momentum in stocks might be peaking over the coming months."

As Konstam simply frames it, "in general equity prices are negatively correlated with volatility, which is consistent with an emphasis on protection and levered exposure to the upside. Rising prices are associated with falling volatility and falling prices with rising volatility. Rising (and expectations of rising) prices convert call exposure into the underlying and reduce concern for the need for protection. Volatility demand is satisfied at lower volatility prices. Falling prices creates more concern for protection."

That – absent any reference to Greek letters, to central banks, to CTAs and risk parity funds, or to vol ETFs – is about the simplest, and most accurate explanation for why vol is where it is at any given moment. What does it mean for the future?

Spikes higher in correlation, either much less negative correlation or positive


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Visualizing The Possible City Of London 'Brexodus'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The EU in Brussels has now given official powers to its top Brexit negotiator, but former French diplomat Michel Barnier is not expected to begin talks until after the UK general election in June. As Statista's Dyfed Loesche notes, Banks and financial institutions are already preparing for the world after Brexit and planning to pull some of their staff from the finance hub in the City of London...

...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

A definitive breakdown of the gloomy state on Wall Street (Business Insider)

While Wall Street bank revenues appeared to bounce back in the first quarter of 2017, with banks posting strong results in fixed income trading in particular, industry-wide revenues were still down on the same period from 2012 to 2015. 

Vietnam's Prime Minister Says He's Confident of 6.7% Growth Goal (Bloomberg)

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said he is confident economic growth this year will meet a goal of 6.7 percent without adding ...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

Jesse Livermore - 21 Investing Rules That Have Stood The Test Of Time For 77 Years

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Before the modern day tweeter @Jesse_Livermore, there was a famous investing legend also called Jesse Livermore. The original Livermore was born in 1877 and died in 1940. Livermore was famous for making and losing several multimillion-dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929. Livermore was an investing genius who unfortunately could not stick to his own rules – Which is why one of his rules – “The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator”, is so relevant to every investor.

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in ...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Friday Kept Week's Performance Intact - Semiconductors Strong

Courtesy of Declan.

Memorial weekend brought with it holiday style trading on Friday. It was positive finish for bulls who were able to maintain and in some cases, build on, gains from earlier in the week

Best of the action came in the Semiconductor Index which finished with a new closing high. The rally from April brought with it an acceleration in pace, comparable to the latter part of 2016.  Relative performance against the Nasdaq 100 hasn't breached resistance, but it's very close. Semiconductors spent a long time in the doldrums after the 2000 peak, but they are finding their groove now.

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Visualizing The Expanding Universe Of Cryptocurrencies

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency, and its meteoric rise has made it a mainstay of conversation for investors, media, and technologists alike.

In fact, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins details, the innovation of the blockchain is changing entire markets, while causing ripples with central banks and the financial industry. At time of publication, the bitcoin price now hovers near US$2,200, a massive increase from this time last year.

But the true impact of Bitcoin is actually far more reaching than this – it’s a...



more from Bitcoin

Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge Fund Billionaire Paul Singer: If Trump Agenda Fails, a Recession Could Follow (Fortune)

Market watchers who thought the stock market would drop if Donald Trump were elected were burned following his win: markets rose to new highs instead.

U.S. inflation path since 2012 is worrisome, policymaker says (Reuters)

The current level of U.S. prices is noticeably lower than what it would be if the Federal Reserve had delivered on its 2-percent inflation target, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, calling the trend "worrisome."

...



more from Paul

Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



more from Biotech

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



more from Kimble C.S.

Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>