Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

Why the US doesn’t understand Chinese thought – and must

 

Why the US doesn't understand Chinese thought – and must

Courtesy of Bryan W. Van NordenYale-NUS College

File 20170718 2912 196tw9r

Plato, Confucius and Aristotle. Ancient Greek philosophy is widely taught in American universities, but classes in Chinese philosophy are few and far between. Public domain

The need for the U.S. to understand China is obvious. The Chinese economy is on track to become the largest in the world by 2030, Chinese leadership may be the key to resolving the nuclear crisis with North Korea and China has military and economic ambitions in the South China Sea and India.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has shown (repeatedly) that it’s not even clear on the difference between the People’s Republic of China (the authoritarian state that occupies the mainland and that recently blacklisted Winnie the Pooh) and the Republic of China (the democratic state that occupies the island of Taiwan and that numerous U.S. presidents have defended against mainland Chinese shows of force).

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 conference in Hamburg, Germany. Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP, File

Part of what U.S. diplomats and informed citizens need to know is the basic historical background to contemporary China. However, as a scholar of Chinese philosophy, I believe it’s at least as important to understand how China thinks.

Unfortunately, very few universities in the United States teach traditional Chinese philosophies such as Confucianism or Daoism. Why not? And why should we care?

Why study Chinese philosophy?

There are at least three reasons that the lack of Chinese philosophy instruction in U.S. universities is problematic.

First, China is an increasingly important world power, both economically and geopolitically – and traditional philosophy is of continuing relevance in China. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly praised Confucius, the influential Chinese philosopher who lived around 500 B.C.


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The gig economy is nothing new – it was standard practice in the 18th century

 

The gig economy is nothing new – it was standard practice in the 18th century

Courtesy of Tawny PaulUniversity of Exeter

File 20170717 6073 a7eth

The uber pool of the 18th century. James Pollard / Google Art Project

The Taylor Report, the UK government’s recent major review of modern work, paid particular attention to the “gig economy”. This is the idea that the traditional model of work – where people often have a clear career progression and a job for life – has been upended. It encompasses “self-employed” Uber drivers to the web developer freelancers and it allows workers more freedom – but also denies them benefits and protective regulation.

While it might seem that long-established ways of working are being disrupted, history shows us that the one person, one career model is a relatively recent phenomenon. Prior to industrialisation in the 19th century, most people worked multiple jobs to piece together a living. Looking to the past uncovers some of the challenges, benefits and consequences of a gig economy.

The diaries of three men in 18th-century Britain that I have found give a fascinating insight into how middle class people – the supposed beneficiaries of today’s gig economy – made multiple employments work. Edmund Harrold, a resident of Manchester in the early 18th century was a barber by training and title. He rented a small shop, shaved customers’ heads, bought and sold hair, and crafted wigs. In the hours unfilled by this he worked as a book dealer, and eventually as an auctioneer, selling various items in alehouses within Manchester and in outlying towns. He lent out money when he had it, earning 10% interest on his holdings.

Thomas Parsons’s diary. The Huntington Library Collections.

Another enthusiastic embracer of the gig economy was Thomas Parsons, working as a stone carver in the city of Bath in 1769, as well as an amateur scientist – work that we might normally classify as leisure. In the West Country, John Cannon took jobs as an agricultural labourer, excise man, failed maltster, and teacher.…
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Second Quarter GDP Forecasts Inching Towards Convergence Around Two Percent

Courtesy of Mish.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Nowcast forecast today. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast was updated on July 14 and again on July 19.

The GDPNow forecast is up from July 14, but way lower from the preceding cast. Meanwhile, the Nowcast inched back above the two percent mark for the first time since June 9.

The overall tendency at this point is convergence at or slightly above two percent.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — July 19, 2017

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on July 19, up from 2.4 percent on July 14. The forecast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.6 percent to -0.6 percent after this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”

FRBNY Nowcast Latest forecast: 2.0 percent — July 21, 2017

GDPNow Contributions to GDP Estimates


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Press Secretary Spicer Resigns Following Vehement Disagreement With Trump

Courtesy of Mish.

If nothing else, Trump provides entertainment value for comedians and bloggers.

This morning, we learned press secretary Sean Spicer Resigns as White House Press Secretary following a huge dispute with Trump over communications.

Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, resigned on Friday after denouncing chaos in the West Wing and telling President Trump he vehemently disagreed with the appointment of the New York financier Anthony Scaramucci as communications director.

After offering Mr. Scaramucci the communications job Friday morning, Mr. Trump asked Mr. Spicer to stay on as press secretary. But Mr. Spicer told Mr. Trump that he believed the appointment of Mr. Scaramucci was a major mistake and said he was resigning, according to a person with direct knowledge of the exchange.

In one of his first official acts, Mr. Scaramucci, who founded the global investment firm SkyBridge Capital and is a Fox News contributor, joined Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Mr. Spicer’s chief deputy, in the White House briefing room and announced that she would succeed Mr. Spicer as press secretary.

Mr. Spicer’s rumored departure has been one of the longest-running internal sagas in an administration brimming with dissension and intrigue. A former Republican National Committee spokesman and strategist, Mr. Spicer was a frequent target of the president’s ire — and correctives — during the first few months of the administration.

He was also weary of the daily dressings-down and instituted the highly contentious practice of holding off-air briefings, less so to snub reporters than to avoid Mr. Trump’s critiques of his performance, according to one of Mr. Spicer’s friends.

Saturday Night Live

Saturday night live frequently mocks both Spicer and Trump. In one episode, Melissa McCarthy Plays an Angst-Ridden Sean Spicer.

“Sean Spicer Returns”

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Original article here.





Weekend Reading: Charge Of The Light Brigade

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

As you I discussed last week, we added risk exposure to portfolios with the breakout to new highs that came in conjunction with a short-term “buy signal” as shown below.

However, when we zoom out a bit, a different picture emerges. Note that in all 3-cases, there was a “Stage-1 Advance” followed by a correction which led to a “Stage-2 Advance.” The correction that followed then provided for the final bullish advance which I call the “Charge Of The Light Brigade.”

The “Charge of the Light Brigade” was a charge of British light cavalry led by Lord Cardigan against Russian forces during the Battle of Balaclava in 1854, during the Crimean War. Lord Raglan, the overall commander of the British forces, had intended to send the Light Brigade to prevent the Russians removing captured guns from overrun Turkish positions, a task well-suited to light cavalry. However, due to miscommunication in the chain of command, the Light Brigade was instead sent on a frontal assault against a different artillery battery, one well-prepared with excellent fields of defensive fire.

Although the Light Brigade reached the battery under withering direct fire and scattered some of the gunners, the badly mauled brigade was forced to retreat immediately. Thus, the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains. War correspondent William Russell, who witnessed the battle, declared:

“Our Light Brigade was annihilated by their own rashness, and by the brutality of a ferocious enemy.”

This current set up is very much like what faced the British Calvary. A market is that overly bullish, overly complacent and overly valued has already had horrible outcomes for those that charged headlong into it.

Simon Maierhofer recently noted much the same in a recent article:

“The blue arrows in the updated chart below show where the S&P 500 is currently within the larger bull market cycle.”

“Regardless of where exactly the market’s at, a correction is getting closer. The initial correction will likely be a wave 4 correction (see labels). Waves 4 are notoriously choppy and frustrating. This choppy correction should be followed by another rally (wave 5) and a more pronounced


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When Something is Obvious

 

When Something is Obvious

Courtesy of 

One of the best descriptions of how intelligent investors behave comes from The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, which was written by John Maynard Keynes. In 1936, he said:

“Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitor, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who pracitse the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.”

Keynes was likely the inspiration behind what Howard Marks refers to as first and second-level thinking. “First-level thinking says, ‘It’s a good company; let’s buy the stock.’ Second-level thinking says, ‘It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced; let’s sell.’

Along the same lines, Michael Mauboussin says, “Fundamentals are how fast the horse runs and expectations are the odds.” Okay. I’m done quoting people a lot smarter than me. Here’s how I think about this. I agree that many investors pay too much attention to how something has performed and too little attention to what the expectations are. But expectations for what? For earnings? For a new product or service? And whose expectations? And where can I find these expectations? And how often do they change? You can see how easy it is to get carried away and forget why we were drawn to it in the first place.

Let’s use Apple as an example.  Am I buying Apple because it’s the best company in the world? Yes. Does everybody know it’s…
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Congress Plays Catch-Up With Self-Driving Cars: Millions of Jobs Will Vanish, What Jobs New Jobs Will Surface?

Courtesy of Mish.

As the push for self-driving cars nears fruition, Congress has a bit of work to do.

A national solution is the key, not a hodge-podge of state regulations with states saying and doing a number of different things.

A House bill dubbed the Highly Automated Vehicle Testing and Deployment Act of 2017, is now in the works. It will give the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration broad oversight of the self-driving car industry.

The New York Times reports As Self-Driving Cars Near, Washington Plays Catch-Up

On Wednesday, a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee voted to advance a bill that would speed up the development of self-driving cars and establish a federal framework for their regulation. The bill, known as the Highly Automated Vehicle Testing and Deployment Act of 2017, is the first major federal effort to regulate autonomous vehicles, and would give the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration broad oversight of the self-driving car industry. A full committee vote on the measure is expected next week, and the bill could go before the entire House this fall.

The Senate is also playing catch-up. Last month, a bipartisan group of senators announced that it was working toward its own version of an autonomous vehicle bill, which would prioritize “safety, fixing outdated rules, and clarifying the role of federal and state governments” in regulating self-driving cars.

Self-driving cars have been praised by members of both parties, who see the technology as a way to spur job creation while preventing many of the roughly 40,000 motor vehicle deaths that occur on American roads each year. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 94 percent of traffic deaths involve human error, including distracted driving and driving while intoxicated.

Self-driving cars would obviate those problems, even if they would introduce new fears. (One well-publicized accident, a fatal 2016 crash involving a Tesla that was set to “autopilot” mode by its owner, sparked worries among regulators, who later concluded that Tesla’s driver-assistance system was not to blame for the accident.)

“These vehicles are going to be developed, and I want to make sure we’re developing them in this country, not China, India or the European Union,” said Ms. Dingell, a former auto lobbyist and General Motors executive whose district includes the headquarters of Ford Motor


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 07-20-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:02:22 Indexes
00:08:11 Currencies
00:09:00 Butterfly Portfolio
00:09:47 Short-Term Portfolio
00:10:35 Long-Term Portfolio
00:13:44 Short-Term Portfolio
00:18:37 EWZ
00:21:56 CSIQ July 15-17 Short Puts in the OOP
00:26:50 SPX Charts
00:29:53 MSFT
00:46:17 Trade Ideas
00:52:02 WPM
00:54:29 SPX
00:54:59 AMZN Income Statement
00:55:36 TM Income Statement
00:56:41 XOM and Walmart Income Statement
00:58:45 AMZN
01:03:30 TWX and NFLX
01:11:23 WTIC
01:21:42 BRENT
01:27:45 GOOGL
01:29:39 Checking on the Markets
01:36:41 Money Supply Money Velocity
01:41:32 Gold
01:43:27 More Trade Ideas
01:44:40 COST
01:49:17 CMG

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Visualizing The Countries Suffering Most From Low Oil Prices

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

As Warren Buffet says, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

And, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardin details, in 2014, when oil prices crashed and burned, the tide was gone – and it was shown that too many countries were relying on frothy oil revenues to balance out their trade deficits.

A LINGERING CRISIS

Fast forward to today, and low oil prices are still causing big problems for many countries. The interactive visualization below from the Council of Foreign Relations shows how the world economies most reliant on oil exports have fared since the 2014 crash.

The end results are not pretty – and even in 2016, there were 18 economies that had breakeven prices (based on spending on imports) that were above the average oil price for the year:

Source: Visual Capitalist

The oil price crash made many oil-reliant economies more fragile, and this fragility can be triggered in different ways. One interesting case study is Venezuela, which is currently embroiled in an ongoing economic, currency, and humanitarian crisis.

BAD TIMING FOR MADURO

During the Hugo Chávez era, sky-high oil prices enabled fiscal and trade policies that subsidized Venezuelan life in many ways. That all changed in 2014, which was only one year after Nicolás Maduro took office.

Despite having largely the same policies as his predecessor, low oil prices have hammered the Venezuelan economy. Even with today’s prices, oil generates an estimated 95% of export revenues for the country. This has resulted in a disaster for the socialist nation, and Venezuela is now stuck with shortages in essential goods, crushing unemployment, a contracting economy, skyrocketing crime and murder rates, and even widespread malnutrition.

At the root of much of this, arguably, is an uncontrollable cycle of hyperinflation:

Source: Visual Capitalist

With an economy that is a runaway train, the government prints more and more cash to try to maintain the status quo. This almost never works, and last year


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Scott Galloway: You Can Innovate Without Being An A**hole

 

Scott Galloway: You Can Innovate Without Being An A**hole

Courtesy of 

Good stuff this week from the Professor.* The line about Marissa Mayer being the Chris Christie of Technology was crazy!

*Language warning.





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Pakistan Economy In Crisis: Enormous CAD In Financial Year 2017

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pakistan economy suffers from the enormous current account deficit (CAD) increase, sending shockwaves across the nation.

OpenClipart-Vectors / Pixabay

As China and India remain locked in what appears to be the most volatile situation on the Indian subcontinent in recent years, Pakistan enters the political crisis spurred by the ongoing investigation into the government’s corruption, leaving the country’s economy in tatters.

The ...



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Phil's Favorites

Why the US doesn't understand Chinese thought - and must

 

Why the US doesn't understand Chinese thought – and must

Courtesy of Bryan W. Van NordenYale-NUS College

Plato, Confucius and Aristotle. Ancient Greek philosophy is widely taught in American universities, but classes in Chinese philosophy are few and far between. Public domain

The need for the U.S. to understand China is obvious. The Chinese economy is on track to become the largest in the world by 2030, Chinese leadership may be the key to ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

This Recovery Isn't All That Resilient, Here's Why

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth via Bloomberg.com,

When adjusted for inflation, credit card usage has grown faster than incomes for 18 months...

Are Federal Reserve stress tests leading economic indicators? That...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positive...



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Insider Scoop

Bank Of America Says Expectations For Groupon Are Still Too High

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GRPN Benzinga's Option Alert Recap From July 18 Watch These 7 Huge Call Purchases In Monday Trade ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength - putting to bed the June 'bull trap'. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.


Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.

...

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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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OpTrader

swing trading portfolio - week of July 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Courtesy of Balveen KaurThe Ohio State University and Pravin KaumayaThe Ohio State University

An oral squamous cancer cell (white) being attacked by two T cells (red), part of a natural immune response. ...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>