Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

How gold helped South Korea repay its debt (Global Investors)

The Asian financial crisis had spread like a virus. Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries were all affected, inciting fears of a global economic meltdown if the crisis couldn’t be contained.

All of these things can be made with one barrel of oil (Visual Capitalist)

Many people think of crude oil as a thick, black liquid that is used to source our unquenchable thirst for gasoline. However, the reality is that each barrel of oil is refined to be used in a variety of applications that includes fuel, cosmetics, plastics, rubber, and candle wax.

Denmark Pays $900,000 for Panama Papers in Hunt for Tax Cheaters (Bloomberg)

Denmark received information on Danish citizens from the so-called Panama papers after paying almost 6 million kroner (around $900,000) to an anonymous source, the Danish Tax Authority said in a statement Thursday.

Here's the Smoking Gun That China Has a Huge Housing Bubble (Bloomberg)

Speculative buyers have eschewed Chinese stocks in favor of property, prompting even the chief economist at the central bank of the world's second largest economy to declare that housing was in a "bubble."

HEDGE FUND LEGEND JULIAN ROBERTSON: Everything is in a bubble and it will end in 'chaos' (Business Insider)

Julian Robertson, the legendary hedge fund manager behind Tiger Management, thinks central banks are fueling bubbles throughout financial markets.

Oil rises near $50; doubts on OPEC plan limit gains (Reuters)

Oil prices jumped more than 1 per cent on Thursday, with Brent nearing $50 a barrel on optimism over OPEC’s first planned output cut in eight years, although gains were limited as some analysts doubted the reduction would be enough to make a substantial dent in the global crude glut.

As Heavy-Truck Sales Go, So Goes the Economy (Bloomberg)

For most people, the economy’s ups and downs are best measured by famous indicators like monthly job reports and quarterly releases of gross domestic product. But students of the arcane took special notice earlier this month


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Beating Your Own Investments

Beating Your Own Investments

Courtesy of 

Add Julian Robertson and Howard Marks to the long list of billionaires that are less than optimistic about the future. All the reasons they cite are unfortunately very compelling, but pessimists always sound intelligent. You can probably count on one hand the number of investors that were actually able to capitalize on their pessimism.

But let’s say all these billionaires are right and U.S. stocks will in fact experience lower returns going forward. A good strategy would be to have your rate of investment outpace the return on your investment. As an example, let’s say you’ve saved some money and have $10,000 to invest. And let’s also assume that you add an additional $100 a month and grow that investment by 1% a month, so that by month two you’re investing $101, $102 by month three and so on. By the 240th month, your last investment in your future of $1,078 will be 978% higher than your initial $100 deposit. A total of $109,000 invested will turn into $138,788 if you earned 3%, $151,481 if you earned 4%, and $164,100 if you earned 4%. Not great, but not terrible either.

market-returns

The last time U.S. stocks had a twenty-year period that compounded at less than six percent was in the early 1950s as we slowly recovered from the great depression. But nobody can be certain that low returns won’t happen again and in fact, I’d guess it’s likely they will at some point. Maybe Central Banks are inflating bubbles right now and I just don’t know it. Or maybe past is not prologue and in three hundred years people will look back at the twentieth century and realize those high returns for U.S. stocks was an outlier.

market

If we are in a low return environment, there are two ways alchemists can get high returns: they can either pick stocks that do better than the market, or they can time the market, both difficult propositions and games that I personally have no desire to play. I can’t control the returns that the market will deliver, but by investing at a higher growth rate than my investments, I can stack the odds in my favor.





PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 9-28-16

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!

Major Topics:

00:01:01 Market Charts
00:02:04 S&P 500
00:05:39 Level Charts 9/27/2016
00:07:43 Checking on Market Charts: Energy, Bonds, Metals Etc.
00:09:18 Coffee
00:14:19 Gold
00:30:22 Checking on the Markets
00:31:54 UNG Charts: News and Trade Ideas
00:46:51 LNG Trade Ideas
00:49:44 Thoughts on CHRW
00:50:23 Fed and USD 
00:58:11 DBA
00:58:25 Grain Charts
00:59:57 Meat Charts
01:03:22 DDA  Trade Ideas
01:09:11 OPEC Deal
01:10:46 USO Trade Ideas
01:15:10 CL & ES Trade Ideas
01:28:06 Politics and Fed
01:29:31 Dollar Tree, Dollar Stores
01:32:31 Bank Rate Charges
01:38:10 Stocks and Markets
01:47:43 More Trade Ideas
01:52:26 Short-Term Portfolio
01:53:28 5% Portfolio
01:54:06 Long-Term Portfolio
01:54:52 Butterfly Portfolio

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Just 3 Things

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice 

Confidence Peak

It was interesting to see the markets reaction to the Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday, along with some of the media headlines, to wit:

“Consumer confidence just surged to its highest level since the recession. The latest reading on consumer confidence from the Conference Board came in at 104.1 for September, up from the prior month’s 101.8. The index touched 105.6 in August 2007.”

There are a couple of important points to consider in the statement above.

First, it is NOT surprising that after 8-years of an economic recovery that consumer confidence has finally recovered all the way back to where it was prior to the last recession. This is what you would expect of during any economic recovery, much less one driven by massive liquidity injections, Government programs to promote consumption and ongoing Central Bank interventions. The fact we are only NOW back at previous highs shows just how fractured the domestic economy was, and likely still is.

Secondly, and most importantly, records are a record for a reason. Record levels denote the point that previously marked the end of a cycle, not the beginning of a new one. This point is often missed by the mainstream media. Record highs of anything, whether it is economic, fundamental or financial data, are warnings signs of late stage events.

The chart below is the COMPOSITE confidence index which is an average of the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence indices.

consumer-sentiment-composite-092716

As I said, it is not surprising that consumers are THE MOST optimistic just prior to the onset of a recession.

But is there a possibility of a recession?

On Tuesday, I discussed the MOST IMPORTANT economic indicator – the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

“While economic numbers like GDP or the monthly non-farm payroll report typically garner the headlines, one of the most useful economic measures is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). The index is a composite index made up of 85 subcomponents which give a broad overview of overall economic activity in the U.S. Unfortunately, the media gives it little attention.

Currently, the CFNAI is not confirming the mainstream view of stronger


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EC Takes Germany to Court Over Unfair Road Taxes: Freedom of Movement of Goods Discrimination

Courtesy of Mish.

“Millions of foreign vehicles criss-cross Germany every year, one of the few countries on mainland Europe not to have widespread tolls on its roads. Neighbouring countries such as Austria, Switzerland and France all charge motorway users, triggering resentment from drivers in the German regions that border them,” says the Financial Times.

Germany responded by placing its own tolls. Germany also let owners of German registered vehicles deduct those tolls from their annual vehicle tax bill.

Unfair Discrimination” whines the EU nannycrats to the European Court of Justice.

germany-tolls

Brussels is taking Berlin to court over Germany’s controversial plan to charge foreign drivers for using its roads, bringing a simmering two-year row into its final stages.

While the charges of up to €130 per year will apply to all users, German registered vehicles are able to deduct the charges from their annual vehicle tax bill — a benefit that the commission says is “discriminatory”.

The proposed fees for short-term access to Germany meanwhile are “disproportionately high”, according to the European Commission, which made the decision to bring Germany before the European Court of Justice on Thursday.

Germany had braced itself for a long legal fight, with the country’s transport minister stating in April that he was prepared to take the disagreement all the way to the EU’s top court. If the court agrees with the commission, Germany would face having to rewrite its law — and face fines if it does not.

Alexander Dobrindt, the German transport minister, said the toll “conforms to European law, and the European Court will confirm that”. He has argued that there are tolls in other European countries and money raised through the levy will go towards Germany’s transport infrastructure.

“Germany doesn’t need any toll,” said Oliver Krischer, a leading Green MP. “It doesn’t yield anything, is highly bureaucratic and contrary to European law. It also has no incentive effect in terms of the environment.”

The European Commission is also examining a similar scheme in the UK, in which British truck drivers can deduct a levy from their domestic vehicle tax, while foreign drivers cannot. This investigation is still ongoing.

“We are concerned that the German system discriminates against drivers from other member states,” said a spokesperson for the European Commission. “It will lead to a situation where German users — and


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Heavy Truck Sales vs. GDP: Sales Plunged 29% in August from Year Ago

Courtesy of Mish.

There’s an interesting correlation between heavy truck sales, GDP, and the S&P 500. If the relationship holds, it spells bad new for the already weakening second half recovery meme.

We’ve never seen a plunge this steep that didn’t foretell a recession,” says Bloomberg columnist David Ader.

Bloomberg reports As Heavy-Truck Sales Go, So Goes the Economy

For most people, the economy’s ups and downs are best measured by famous indicators like monthly job reports and quarterly releases of gross domestic product. But students of the arcane took special notice earlier this month when the Bureau of Economic Analysis released some disturbing data that didn’t make anybody’s front page. In August, domestic heavy-truck sales fell 29 percent from the same period of 2015, the weakest month in well over three years.

Any drop that dramatic could always be an anomaly, but heavy-truck sales have been slipping for two years. Broad weakness in this category has historically been a reliable hint that a recession is on its way.

There are other worrying signs. Caterpillar has said that used-machinery prices are down 10 percent from a year ago. That could also reflect the impact of oil and mining industry problems, yet a price decline in used construction equipment could have a dampening impact on new-equipment sales for big manufacturers.

Another warning comes from the Cass Freight Index, a measure of North American freight volumes and expenditures. In August, Cass noted that its Expenditure Index was down 3.3 percent from July and 6.3 percent from the previous August. These measures, too, have shown weakness over the last two years.

Weak truck sales have sometimes given false signals about a recession over the last 30-odd years. But the sheer size of this August’s drop looks different. We’ve never seen a plunge this steep that didn’t foretell a recession.

Hitting the Brakes

hitting-the-brakes

Truck Sales vs. S&P 500

Bloomberg had a story on Heavy Truck sales. If you’re wondering how this relates to stock markets, check this out. pic.twitter.com/XXuFCOc1jI

— VP Research (@VrntPerception) September 29, 2016

Cass Freight Index

I regularly follow the Cass Freight Index. It has indeed been performing miserably.


Continue reading here…





Investors Often Sell First and Ask Questions Later (Video)

By EconMatters

This European Bank Solvency issue has been festering in the background for awhile, is this just a little positioning into quarter end, or does it spill into the start of earning`s period next week is this big question for investors. Things could get worse overnight at the European Market open if rumors start spreading.

 




Saudi Arabia Reacts To Sept. 11 Bill Veto Override

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the aftermath of yesterday stunning snub of Barack Obama, when the Senate overrode Obama's veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, or JASTA (aka the Sept.11 bill which would allow US citizens to sue Saudi Arabia over the Sept. 11 attack) with a whopping 99 votes, followed shortly by the same outcome in the House, there was just one question on everyone's mind: would Saudi Arabia make good on its threat from April to sell some or all of its over half a trillion in foreign reserves.

And while so far there has been nothing but a stony silence from Riyadh, some Saudis have bristled, saying the kingdom should curb business and security ties in response. To be sure, Saudi's government is in a tight spot as it has always dismissed suspicions that it backed the Sept 11 attackers even though the release of the "28 pages" clearly confirmed Saudi involvement. In the coming weeks it will have to not only simply deny, but also prove in a court of law it had no involvement when an avalanche of lawsuits hits it.

Deceased Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud presents Barack Obama with the King Abdul Aziz Order of Merit

While the Saudi government financed an extensive lobbying campaign against the "Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act", or JASTA, in the run-up to the vote, and warned it would undermine the principle of sovereign immunity, Saudi officials who had lobbied against the bill stopped short of threatening any retaliation if the law was passed.

Officially. Unofficially the NYT reported on April 15 that Saudi Arabia had told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes the JASTA bill.

Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, delivered the kingdom’s message personally last month during a trip to Washington, telling lawmakers that Saudi Arabia would be forced to sell up to $750 billion in treasury securities and other assets in the United States before they could be in danger of being frozen by American courts.

For now, however, there is no official


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Trade Deficit Shrinks a Bit More Than Expected: Impact on GDP Estimates?

Courtesy of Mish.

Today’s report on International Trade shows the US balance at $-58.4 billion. This is a  better than the Econoday Consensus estimate of $-62.3 billion, and even a bit better than the most optimistic guess of $-59.2 billion.

Highlights

The nation’s deficit in goods trade narrowed slightly to $58.4 million in August. Exports rose a solid 0.7 percent in the month reflecting strength in industrial supplies, vehicles, and also consumer goods. The gain in exports comes despite a 3.5 percent monthly fall back in food exports which surged 34 percent in July and made for a rare 3.0 percent jump in that month’s total exports. Imports also rose in the latest month, up 0.3 percent and reflecting a bounce back for capital goods as well as a gain in food. The gain in exports is welcome as is the gain in capital goods imports.

Balance of Trade

balance-of-trade-2016-09a

Balance of trade chart from Census Bureau.

Impact on GDP?

The impact on tomorrow’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate and the FRBNY Nowcast estimate for 3rd quarter GDP is guesswork two ways.

First, I do not know what their model predicted. Second I do not know how their model will react even if I did know what it predicted.

Thus, this seemingly good result might not turn out that way if the models predicted even better results.

Nonetheless, I am willing to take a stab: The impact from this report will be small, but slightly positive on third quarter GDP estimates (+0.05 to +0.10) percentage points.


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed’s Lockhart Sees Potential for Raising Rates ‘Before Long’ (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank is nearing its goals of maximum employment and steady inflation near 2 percent, leaving the economy primed for an increase in borrowing costs.

U.S. Economy Expanded at Revised 1.4% Rate in Second Quarter (Bloomberg)

The U.S. economy expanded more in the second quarter than previously estimated, reflecting a smaller drag from business spending on structures and equipment.

Wall Street slips as Apple, healthcare stocks drop (Reuters)

Wall Street was lower in choppy trading late Thursday morning, pulled lower by Apple and healthcare stocks.

The S&P healthcare index fell 0.7 percent, marking the second straight day of decline as shares of Merck and Johnson & Johnson booked losses

Treasuries Fall as Dollar Climbs on Economic Data, Fed Remarks (Bloomberg)

Bonds fell, while the dollar rose as data added to evidence the world’s largest economy continued to strengthen and policy makers signaled they’re moving closer to raising rates. Oil gained.

Q2 GDP Revised Up to 1.4% Annual Rate (Calculated Risk)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent. 

The decline of the middle class is causing even more economic damage than we realized (The Washington Post)

I have just come across an International Monetary Fund working paper on income polarization in the United States that makes an important contribution to the secular stagnation debate.

In U-Turn, Saudis Choose Higher Prices Over Free Oil Markets (Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabia has ended its flirtation with free oil markets.

Why People Have Been Worrying About Deutsche Bank, in 12 Charts (Bloomberg)

How do you solve a problem like Deutsche Bank AG?

Its share price fell to an all-time low this week amid concerns that the bank may lack the


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Zero Hedge

FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For years the political elites, backed by funding from George Soros, have fought common sense voter ID laws as blatant attempts of racist right wingers to suppress the votes of minority and low-income citizens.  These same people tirelessly argue that there is no evidence of voter fraud despite the mountain of facts that keeps piling up the contrary.  In fact, per the ...



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Phil's Favorites

Beating Your Own Investments

Beating Your Own Investments

Courtesy of 

Add Julian Robertson and Howard Marks to the long list of billionaires that are less than optimistic about the future. All the reasons they cite are unfortunately very compelling, but pessimists always sound intelligent. You can probably count on one hand the number of investors that were actually able to capitalize on their pessimism.

But let’s say all these billionaires are right and U.S. stocks will in fact experience lower returns going forward. A good strategy would be to have your rate of investment outpace the return on your investment. As an example, let’s say you’ve saved some money and have $10,000 to invest. An...



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ValueWalk

Fear of Election Fraud Growing - 15 million registered voters may stay home, says new study

By JOHN F. BANZHAF. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fear of Election Fraud Growing – Millions to Stay Home
Warnings by Banzhaf and Others of Election Hacking Affecting Voters

According to a new study, more than 15 million registered voters may not vote for president because of concerns about cyber hacking, with a majority believing that electronic voting machines involved in the presidential election could be hacked.

Election Fraud

Photo by Cea.

This dramatic change in attitude – since there have never been indications in previous elections of voting machines being tampered with – came about as a result of two recent demonstrations by professors about how...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed’s Lockhart Sees Potential for Raising Rates ‘Before Long’ (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank is nearing its goals of maximum employment and steady inflation near 2 percent, leaving the economy primed for an increase in borrowing costs.

U.S. Economy Expanded at Revised 1.4% Rate in Second Quarter (Bloomberg) ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Crude Oil hung up by this key pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below compares the price patterns of Crude Oil and the NYSE Index over the past 8-years. Crude and the NYSE don’t always correlate, over the past couple of years though, they have in a big way!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since early 2015, the correlation between Crude Oil and the NYSE has been very high. They both hit highs together in 2015 at (1) and they both created double bottom lows together at (2).

Over the past 15-months, both appear to be ...



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Mapping The Market

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

By Jean-Luc

Good riddance – cleaned up a lot of frauds there:

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

In early 2009, the seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion. Today, they’ve been all but wiped out.

When Barack Obama took office, America’s seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion, with more than 815,000 students enrolled at campuses spread across the country. The schools were flooded with with people seeking shelter from the recession, returning to school to pick up new skills.

Almost eight years later, the industry has been decimated. The seven largest listed operators are worth just over $6 billion, and the most valuable co...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cach...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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