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Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With “Rottenly Constructed” Troika; Mish’s Game Theory Math

Courtesy of Mish.

Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’, Yanis Varoufakis Says

Greece will no longer co-operate with the “troika” of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country’s finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Central Bank funding.

“This position enabled us to win the trust of the Greek people,” Mr Varoufakis said during a joint news conference with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who was visiting Athens for the first time since a leftwing government came to power this week.

He also blasted the deeply unpopular bailout monitors from the European Commission, IMF and ECB, also known as “ the troika”, saying: “We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee.”

Germany Prepared for Negotiation But Won’t Negotiate

The position of Germany and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, is equally one-sided.

Mr Dijsselbloem warned the new government against taking unilateral steps or ignoring arrangements with lenders, saying “the problems of the Greek economy have not disappeared overnight with the elections.”

Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, warned Athens on Friday against trying to “blackmail” Germany with its financial demands.

Mr Schäuble said Germany was ready to co-operate but only on the basis of current agreements. “We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed,” he said. “Beyond that, it is hard to blackmail us.” 

Martin Jäger, the German finance ministry spokesman, said any request for an extension of the existing financing programme would only be acceptable when it was “tied with a clear readiness of Greece to implement the agreed reforms”.

Gaming Theory



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Financial Blogger Profile of “Mish” on Equities.Com

Courtesy of Mish.

Daniel Banas at Equities.Com interviewed me last week via phone for their profile series on “the most distinct and noteworthy voices in the world of financial blogging.”

The interview transcript follows. First a few words …

I am honored to be on that list.

The interview kicked off with a question on how I got started. I have commented on this before, but the short story is I was out of work, hanging around stock message boards, and Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) created the first template to my blog. Bill had just started his own blog and within a few years we became two of the top three economic blogs in the US.   

Somewhere along the line Barry Rithotz at the Big Picture Blog discovered me, frequently linking back to my blog. I like to mention those who have helped me out, even if we have recent differences of opinion on various issues.

Of the three top bloggers (not counting syndicates like Paul Krugman, or multiperson sites), Calculated Risk or Ritholtz typically held the top spot, but on a few occasions, I did.

Tweet From Barry

Today, Barry was nice enough to tweet “Nice Profile of Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) at Equities.com Global Financial Community shar.es/1omVEm“.

Thanks Barry. Appreciated. Here is a link to Mish Profile on Equities.Com.

Interview with Daniel Banas

EQ: What inspired you to start Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis?



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Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation; Strange Times for Denmark, Deutschland and EU

Courtesy of Mish.

Eurostat released HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices statistics today.

In spite of promising that deflation would not hit again, here we are, and for the second month too.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2% in December 2014 according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This negative rate for euro area annual inflation in January is driven by the fall in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with -6.3% in December). Prices are also expected to fall for food, alcohol & tobacco (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December). Only prices for services are expected to increase (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in December).

HICP vs. Year Ago

click on any chart for sharper image

HICP Components by Month

HIPC 2005 to 2015 History

Even Germany in Deflation

The BBC reports Denmark, Deutschland and deflation: strange times for EU.

New official figures from Germany show that prices have fallen, by 0.5%, over the previous 12 months.

Meanwhile the Danish Central Bank has cut one of its main interest rates for the second time in a week.



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Looks Like I’ll Be Able To Retire Comfortably At Age 91

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds

You've probably seen articles and adverts discussing how much money you'll need to "retire comfortably." The trick of course is the definition of comfortable. The general idea of comfortable (as I understand it) appears to be an income which enables the retiree to enjoy leisurely vacations on cruise ships, own a well-appointed RV for tooling around the countryside, and spend as much time on the golf links as he/she wants.

Needless to say, Social Security isn't going to fund a comfortable retirement, unless the definition is watching TV with an box of kibbles to snack on.

By this definition of retiring comfortably, I should be able to retire at age 91--assuming I can work another 30 years and the creek don't rise.

Since I earned my first real Corporate America paycheck at 16 in 1970 (summer job for Dole Pineapple), I've logged 45 years of work. Now if I'd been smart and worked for the government, I could have retired 15 years ago with generous pension and healthcare benefits for life.

But alas, I wasn't smart, so here I am, a self-employed numbskull.

The articles and adverts usually suggest piling up a hefty nestegg to fund a comfortable retirement. As near as I can make out, the nestegg should be around $2.6 million--or maybe it's $26 million. Let's just say it's a lot.

This presents retirees without generous government pensions two basic problems. One is making enough money to pay the bills of survival and set aside the two million or whatever the number is to retire comfortably.

The average full-time earned income in the U.S. is around $50,000, depending on how the statistics are massaged. At this income, the worker would need to to save every dime for 40 years to assemble the nestegg. This isn't practical (unless you inherit a trust fund, in which case you don't have to bother with earned income).

The magic solution is unearned income, i.e. dividends, interest, capital gains on investments, etc. If the worker aiming for that comfortable retirement holds his/her retirement nestegg in high-yielding investments, the nestegg will grow over time to the sky — the $2 million needed to retire comfortably will accrue.

This raises the second problem: identifying those magical high-yielding investments that…
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How Do You Solve A Problem Like Syriza?

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth


Edwin Rosskam Shoeshine, 47th Street, Chicago’s main Negro business street 1941

First off, no, I don’t think Syriza is a problem, I just couldn’t resist the Sound of Music link once it popped into my head, as in ‘headlines you can sing’. I think Syriza may well be a solution, if it plays its cards right. But that still leaves politicians and investors denominating Tsipras et al as a problem, if not a menace. Now, investors may not need to possess any moral values – though things would probably have been much better if that were a requirement  but you can’t say the same for politicians. Politics is supposed to BE about moral values.

And supporting Samaras and his technocrat oligarchy, as has been the EU/Troika policy, doesn’t exactly show a high moral standard. Not just because trying to influence an election is an no-go aberration (though it’s so common in the EU you’d almost forget that), but certainly also because of what Samaras and the EU have done to the Greek people over the past few years. And neither does it show in what happens now, where the Greeks, steeped in Troika-induced misery as they are, are labeled greedy bastard cheats.

Since the EU lies as much about Greece as it does about Russia, it’s only fitting that the former should speak out for the latter. And it’s deliciously easy: the EU wants to step up sanctions against Russia (because the Ukraine shelled Mariupol?!), but EU sanctions decisions require unanimity. Since Greek-Russian relations have historically been close, Syriza resisting ever tighter sanctions should be no surprise.

At the end of the day, European taxpayers shouldn’t be angry at Greece, no matter how much their media try to stoke that anger, but at their own banks, governments and central banks. Things pertaining to Greece and its debt are not at all what they seem. Most of it is just another narrative originating in Brussels, Frankfurt and the financial media cabal. Not much is left of this narrative if we dig a little deeper. This from Mehreen Khan for the Telegraph today may be a little ambivalent in what it points to, but it certainly puts the Greek debt in…
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Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don’t Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong

Courtesy of Mish.

In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote.

According to an IFOP 2017 presidential poll released Thursday, Marine Le Pen would come out clearly in the lead if the first round of presidential elections was held on Sunday.

Le Pen would get 29 to 31% of the vote. No rival would exceed 23%. Nicolas Sarkozy, Manuel Valls, and Alain Juppé, each have around 23%. François Hollande would get 21%.

Francois Bayrou would obtain 7 to 9%, Mélenchon 8%, Cécile Duflot and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan between 3 and 4% and the far left between 2 and 3%.

Prime Minister Valls would do better than Francois Hollande, with 23% of the vote.

Too Early Too Worry

Don't worry about 2017 until December 31, 2016. Instead worry about Greece and especially Spain. Spanish elections are scheduled for November of 2015.

On January 12, in Zugzwang! I noted the Spanish radical left party Podemos surges into lead. That surge adds another contagion wrinkle given the Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. The euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it ."

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider the Incredible Populist Positions in Podemos' "Economic Manifesto".

Don't Worry, Everything Under Control

In retrospect, it appears there may be too many things to worry about. So instead, sit back and relax. Repeat after me … Nothing can possibly go wrong because central bankers are in complete control.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

More from Mish here > 

 





Drink Up World: The 4 Companies That Control Global Whiskey Production

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While there are eighty people who hold half the world's wealth, ten 'people' who run the world, and ten corporations that control nearly everything you buy… these four companies control what is – to some – the most precious commodity in the world… world whiskey production.

h/t @BarbarianCap





Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus

Courtesy of Mish.

Ukrainians Fighting Ukrainians

Forced military conscription (slavery is a better word) imposed on citizens of Ukraine has reached new heights recently.

The government in Kiev now demands those forced into slavery to hand over their cars for military use. As one might expect, avoidance of needless military slaughter has also reached new heights.

Before we get to those stories, I have a video to share. It is in Russian, but with English subtitles. I am told by reader Jacob Dreizin the translation is essentially correct, but a couple things were translated too literally.

I do offer this warning. The video is graphic and it does contain a lot of harsh language. The video is about captured Ukrainian POWs on a fool’s mission to retake the Donetsk airport. After about 12 minutes or so it gets gruesome, the beginning is not so bad.

Warning aside, I recommend watching the video, entirely. Watch the scenes where locals confront the Ukrainian POWs. The video accurately portrays Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians, not Ukrainians fighting Russians.

Ukrainian POW’s Face NAF Commander Givi and the Fury of Donetsk Residents

Link if Video Does not Play: UAF Storms Donetsk Airport and Gets Asses Handed to them by NAF.

Want a translation to Spanish, German, Dutch, Danish, or French? Go to Information Clearing House. That is where I picked up the Video.

Translation Corrections



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“The Thread By Which Venezuelan Socialism Hangs May Soon Snap”

Courtesy of Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man

Fixing the Dollar Drought

Say you are a socialist, and you have intervened heavily in the economy. Suddenly, things don’t work as you thought they would. Somehow, economic laws seem to refuse to bend to your will. However, you cannot really believe that since according to your convictions, wealth is a byproduct of government plans and decrees. Moreover, your predecessor (also a socialist revolutionary) had the best advice oil money can buy – even from people who are now advising socialist parties over in good old Europe. So the solution to the unintended consequences of the initial intervention is to intervene further, in an attempt to refine the plan, so to speak.

You may have heard about a certain proverb attributed to Einstein about insanity, but you can’t quite recall what it was. So you try again. And again. And again. Chances are, your name is Nicolas Maduro. But eventually, you quit trying – sort of.

 pear-shaped-body

Image via diyconfessions.com

As Bloomberg reports, Maduro wants to fix the dollar shortage in Venezuela by introducing the fifth parallel currency market in 12 years – Venezuela will end up with three different official exchange rates as a result, one of which should actually track what was hitherto the black market rate (i.e., the real market exchange rate):

“Venezuela will create its fifth parallel currency market in 12 years to boost U.S. dollar supplies as plunging oil revenue worsens food and medicine shortages and pushes the nation deeper into recession.

The new market will allow private companies and individuals to trade the greenback through brokerages, President Nicolas Maduro told Congress in a televised address Wednesday night. The government will continue importing essential products at the primary exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars a dollar, while combining two other existing currency auctions into one, he said.

“This is the decision I have taken: a system of three markets,” he told lawmakers after being welcomed by live salsa, ceremonial cannon shots and chanting supporters. “This exchange system is a transitory system to attend the country’s development needs” while oil prices stabilize, he said.

Maduro has preferred tighter currency controls to ease economic strife as he seeks to avoid cuts to social spending. A


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The First Casualty of a Bear Market

Clear thinking? Confidence?  Consider what Mr. Buffett would do when the market is crumbling, next time you're fully invested in a falling market….

The First Casualty of a Bear Market

Courtesy of 

Nick Murray says “The ability to distinguish between volatility and loss is the first casualty of a bear market.”

I turned to one of my favorite passages of his masterpiece Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth this morning as turmoil from overseas and the commodity markets made its way through the headlines. Nick relays a great anecdote about how much money one investor personally “lost” during the last Russian Ruble crisis in the summer of 1998…

$6,200,000,000

Yes, that’s right, it’s six billion two hundred million dollars. A very large sum of money, wouldn’t you say? Now what, you ask, does it represent?

It is roughly how much Warren Buffett’s personal shareholdings in his Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. declined in value between July 17 and August 31, 1998. And now for the six billion dollar question. During those forty-five days, how much money did Warren Buffett lose in the stock market? 

The answer is, of course, that he didn’t lose anything. Why? That’s simple: he didn’t sell.

In July and August of 1998, I was doing time at a brokerage firm on Long Island as a summer intern. The brokers were panicking and the partners began yelling at them to get off margin and help maintain order in the Asia Pacific technology stocks in which the firm made markets. It wasn’t working, from what I could surmise. The simultaneous meltdown of several Far East currencies and then the toppling of the Ruble proved too much for US markets and eventually the contagion found its way here.

People forget that, in the midst of the massive late 1990’s bull market, we had this two-month bear market episode in which the S&P 500 dropped by a quick 25 percent. The giant Nobel laureate-run hedge fund, Long Term Capital, imploded as a result and Greenspan was


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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages I track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the open on the last day of the month, three S&P 500 strategies are now signaling "invested" -- unchanged from last month. Two of the five of the Ivy Portfolio ETFs, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) and PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC), are signal "cash" -- also unchanged from last month.

If a position is less than 2% from a signal, it is highlighted in yellow.


Note: My inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give...



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Zero Hedge

Meet Loretta Lynch - Obama's Attorney General Nominee Who Might Be Even Worse than Eric Holder

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

On matters of policy, Ms. Lynch called capital punishment “an effective penalty” and said she disagreed with Mr. Obama’s statements that marijuana was no more harmful than alcohol. She called the National Security Agency’s collection of American phone records “certainly constitutional, and effective.”

– From the New York Times article: ...



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Phil's Favorites

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With "Rottenly Constructed" Troika; Mish's Game Theory Math

Courtesy of Mish.

Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’, Yanis Varoufakis Says
Greece will no longer co-operate with the “troika” of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country’s finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Centr...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

In the News: An ETF Rush to Bet on Insiders

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

(ETFTrends.com by Todd Shriber): "Betting on insider buying is again proving to be an efficacious strategy as the Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (NYSEArca: KNOW) has been noticeably less bad than the S&P 500 to start 2015. Add to that, investors are warming to the merits of KNOW's insider sentiment strategy." [Editor's note: KNOW tracks the Sabrient Multi-cap Insider/Analyst Quant-Weighted Index (SBRQAM)]. Read article

...

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Market Shadows

What Would You Do?

What Would You Do?

Courtesy of Paul Price

Suppose you had the technical ability and raw materials to print up counterfeit dollars, euros or yen that were identical to the real things. Assume you could spend them as fast as you could create them with no fear of any repercussions.

Would you prudently print up only as much fresh currency as you needed for your current lifestyle? Would you create just a bit more than that to help relatives or those in need?

It is most likely you’d have your printing press running 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Becoming the richest person in the world would confer great power upon you.

You could rationalize this action because you plan to use the money for good purposes. Imagine the warm feeling you’d get by giving every person in America one million do...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 26th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services

So as I was saying yesterday (Bitcoin: The Biggest Clown Show In History?), Bitcoin has several obstacles on the path to potential success as an alternative currency. But I forgot to mention hacking and theft at Bitcoin exchanges and other technical problems. This is related to the lack of government backing and the fact that the value of Bitcoins is based entirely on confidence.  

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services 

By 



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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