Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

Cincarious Research’s outdated note on FireEye, posted at Zero Hedge

Note: Cincarious Research contributed the article LifeLock Willing To Give FireEye $16 Per Share In Takeover Offer – Sources to Zero Hedge. It appears to be fake – or at least old – news.

Read this: Who or what is “Cincarious Research?”

Cincarious Research writes,

LifeLock is looking to revamp itself with a purchase of FireEye according to a few of our sources in the security space that are privy to the on-going conversation. We were told the company is seeking to expand offerings and the added cyber-security depth from FireEye on the government level is what LifeLock wants, badly. The deal is set for $16 per share for a total valuation of $2.7 billion.

Key sell-side comment from this morning supporting the idea that FireEye is struggling comes from Gabelli & Co which noted "What matters in 2017: FireEye’s execution to demonstrate growth and achieve its profitability improvement target, cybersecurity market demand, and sales performance of the company’s new products and initiatives."

****

Update from Reuters,

FILE PHOTO - The Symantec logo is pictured on a screen
 
FILE PHOTO – The Symantec logo is pictured on a screen June 13, 2016. REUTERS/Thomas White/File Photo

(Reuters) – Security software provider Symantec Corp held talks to acquire FireEye Inc about six months ago, but is not currently pursuing a deal with the cyber security company, people familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

The two companies could not reach a deal because of disagreements over price, the sources said, asking not to be identified because the negotiations were confidential. Symantec and FireEye declined to comment.

Shares of FireEye had jumped earlier on Thursday after financial blog Zero Hedge published an article based on anonymous sources stating that Symantec's LifeLock unit was willing to offer $16 per share for FireEye. (my emphasis)





Half of biomedical research studies don’t stand up to scrutiny – and what we need to do about that

 

Half of biomedical research studies don't stand up to scrutiny – and what we need to do about that

Courtesy of Ivan Oransky, New York University

What if I told you that half of the studies published in scientific journals today – the ones upon which news coverage of medical advances is often based – won’t hold up under scrutiny? You might say I had gone mad. No one would ever tolerate that kind of waste in a field as important – and expensive, to the tune of roughly US$30 billion in federal spending per year – as biomedical research, right? After all, this is the crucial work that hunts for explanations for diseases so they can better be treated or even cured.

Wrong. The rate of what is referred to as “irreproducible research” – more on what that means in a moment – exceeds 50%, according to a recent paper. Some estimates are even higher. In one analysis, just 11% of preclinical cancer research studies could be confirmed. That means that an awful lot of “promising” results aren’t very promising at all, and that a lot of researchers who could be solving critical problems based on previously published work end up just spinning their wheels.

So what gives? And how can we fix this problem?

Hmmm, I didn’t expect those results…. Test tubes image via www.shutterstock.com

 

What worms tell us about reproducibility

Although definitions of reproducibility and replication vary somewhat, for a study to be reproducible, another researcher needs to be able to replicate it, meaning use the same data and analysis to come to the same conclusions. There are lots of reasons why a study may not pass the replication test, from flat-out errors to a failure to adequately describe the methodology used. A researcher may have forgotten about a step in the process when he wrote up the methodology, for example, counted data in the wrong category, or written the wrong code for her statistics program.

Faking results is another reason, but it’s not nearly as common as others. Out-and-out fraud like that, or suspected fraud, is the reason for a bit fewer than half of
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 02-22-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:02:30 Checking on the Markets
00:05:18 FOMC Meeting
00:11:42 Futures
00:12:47 AMZN
00:14:53 TSLA
00:22:28 Batteries
00:23:47 Tesla Powerwall
00:34:22 NAP
00:38:22 SLW
00:43:27 NGJ7 Trade Ideas
00:46:19 Natural Gas Chart
00:52:17 ESRX on Long-Term Portfolio
00:54:11 QCOM on Long-Term Portfolio
00:56:25 Trade Ideas
01:01:30 TEVA Trade Ideas
01:04:10 LNG Charts
01:10:26 PFE Charts
01:11:49 Crude Oil
01:14:09 UCO
01:17:56 Gasoline
01:21:38 PFE Trade Ideas
01:22:55 Checking on the Markets
01:37:06 LL
01:39:41 LL Charts
01:42:28 Checking on the Markets

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





When Was America’s Peak Wealth?

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth



Times Square New York City, 1958
 

A few days ago, I wrote an essay entitled “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, in which I posited, among many other things, that “..the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s” along with the question “..was America at its richest right before or right after Nixon took the country off the gold standard in 1971?”

That same day, I received an email from (very) long time Automatic Earth reader and afficionado Ken Latta, who implied he thought the peak of American wealth was even earlier. That turned into a nice conversation. I really like the way his head works to frame his words. And Ken knows what he’s talking about by grace of the fact that he was a witness to it all.

I like that he defines wealth as “best measured by the capacity to be utterly wasteful”, and the early 1960’s in America as “a golden age, overshadowed, of course, by excess hubris.”. And I wonder many of you would agree that America was at the summit of its wealth perhaps as much as 55-60 years ago?

Here’s his first mail:

Ken Latta: Ilargi, A darned good editorial, but I would like to suggest a different baseline for America’s peak wealth. As experienced by the common man, now pronounced “deplorable”.

In my humble estimation based on having been there at the time. Peak wealth occurred somewhere in the neighborhood of 1963. It was a time when the Beach Boys and their music biz competitors were making money with songs about hi-powered cars and a life of surfing waves. Working Joes bought those cars and drove them on the street. Those on the coasts spent inordinate amounts of time surfing. A lot of ordinary car buyers were committed to trading in every three years. Some of the better off even thought every two years was the way to go. We wuz feelin invincible and we enjoyed such a comfortable way of life without forcing the majority of our wimmin into wage slavery. It was a golden age, overshadowed, of course, by excess


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What JPMorgan and Citigroup Have in Common When It Comes to Crime

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Testifying Before Congress on the London Whale Trading Losses at His Bank

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Testifying Before Congress on the London Whale Trading Losses at His Bank

On September 8, 2016, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) fined Wells Fargo $185 million following an investigation that found that its employees had engaged in a widespread practice of “secretly opening unauthorized deposit and credit card accounts” in order to meet sales quotas or qualify for bonuses. An estimated 2 million accounts were involved. One month later, the Chairman and CEO of Wells Fargo, John Stumpf, was gone.

Consider that swift action to acknowledge and punish egregious abuse of clients with how the Boards of Directors of JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup have responded to criminal felony charges and seemingly endless regulatory fines for abusing clients’ trust. The Boards have kept their CEOs in place, paid the monster fines and moved on to the next settlement.

Jamie Dimon became the CEO of JPMorgan Chase on January 1, 2006. At that point, the bank was more than a century old and had never been charged with a criminal felony. In 2014, the Justice Department charged JPMorgan Chase with two felony counts in connection with their role in facilitating the Madoff Ponzi scheme. The bank was given a two-year deferred prosecution agreement.

The very next year, in May 2015, JPMorgan Chase was hit with a new felony count for its role in rigging foreign currency markets as part of a banking cartel. That’s three felony counts in two years and yet Jamie Dimon kept his job. Before the felony counts there was a $13 billion settlement with the Justice Department and Federal and State regulators in 2013 for JPMorgan Chase’s role in selling toxic mortgage investments to investors as worthwhile products when the bank had good reason to believe they would blow up.

In 2012, Dimon himself was hauled before Congress to explain why his bank was making speculative bets with depositors’ money in high risk derivatives in London. The bank eventually owned up to losing $6.2 billion in the wild trades. The scandal  became infamously known as the London Whale. In 2013, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Sands Batter Major Explorers' Reserves as Rout Sinks Value (Bloomberg)

Oil-sands investments in Western Canada that gobbled tens of billions of dollars over the past decade are proving an Achilles heel for some of the world’s biggest energy producers.

A definitive breakdown of the gloomy state of Wall Street (Business Insider)

Don't be fooled by the strong rebound in Wall Street trading revenues at the end of 2016: Investment banks still had a lousy year.

Korea Pushes Back Against U.S. Over Currency, Sees China Risk (Bloomberg)

South Korea pushed back against U.S. pressure over its foreign exchange policy and current account surplus, with the central bank governor maintaining that the nation only acts to check extreme swings in the won.

Europe Savors Taste of Brazilian Oil With More Blocks Opening (Bloomberg)

European oil majors given a taste of Brazil may soon be ready for more.

The Bank of England struck back at plans to strip London of a €930 billion daily business after Brexit (Business Insider)

The Bank of England gave a robust defence of London's euro clearing business, saying it offered lower costs and greater financial stability over plans to move it to continental Europe after Brexit.

Japan Stocks Could Surpass Key Technical Level, Nomura Says (Bloomberg)

Several failed attempts by the Topix index to climb past a key technical level have left investors nervous, even amid signs the benchmark may eventually succeed, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.

Emerging-Markets Hedge-Fund Assets Reach Record in '16, HFR Says (Bloomberg)

Emerging-market hedge-fund assets reached a record at the end of last year, thanks to gains in energy prices and a strengthening dollar, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.

The FTSE 100 is dropping on a busy day for company results (Business Insider)

The FTSE 100 is lower on Thursday morning on a busy day of results for the UK's biggest companies.

Dow eyes 10th day of gains as U.S. stock futures rise on back of oil rally (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures pointed to small gains for Wall Street on Thursday, setting the Dow average on


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Rate Hike Cycles vs. the US Dollar: Rate Hikes Bad for Gold?

Courtesy of Mish.

Here are two different looks at Fed rate hikes since Volcker. The charts are the same, but one presentation is a lot funnier than the other.

fed-funds-rate1

the above image from the New York Times article A History of Fed Leaders and Interest Rates.

Here’s an alternative view courtesy of @HedgeEye.

fed-rate-hikes-hedgeye

Let’s take the fist chart and see what correlations exist between rate hikes and the US dollar index.

Rate Hike Cycle vs. the US Dollar

fed-funds-rate-vs-dollar-index

Conventional wisdom suggests rate hikes will support the US dollar.


Continue reading here…





Want a stronger economy? Give immigrants a warm welcome

 

Want a stronger economy? Give immigrants a warm welcome

Courtesy of Kevin Shih, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Immigrants have long been a scapegoat when economies are sputtering, jobs are being lost or security is a concern.

President Donald Trump’s planned wall along the Mexican border, for example, is premised on the notion that immigrants are pouring across the border (they’re not), taking Americans’ jobs (they haven’t) and committing a disproportionate share of crimes (they don’t).

The presumed threats of immigration were also front and center in Trump’s recently announced plan to deport millions of people who were in the U.S. illegally.

We saw something similar when U.K. voters opted for a “Brexit” from the European Union last year, when many British politicians cast immigrants as a threat to the physical, social and economic welfare of natives.

While it has become a popular notion in the West that immigrants jeopardize the job prospects of natives, over 30 years of economic research (including my own) give strong reason to believe otherwise.

And in fact, the opposite may be more likely: There’s evidence immigrants actually promote economic growth.

Why we blame immigrants for our troubles

Extensive reviews of research on the topic (like this one) show that most studies of how immigration affects native wages and employment found very little effect.

Although economists have yet to arrive at a complete consensus, decades of studies generally do not support the notion that immigration harms the economy, market wages or native employment. So why do so many believe it when research suggests otherwise?

A central issue is that it is easy to think that the labor market is a zero-sum game and the number of jobs available is fixed. If everyone were competing over a finite number of jobs, more immigrants would mean fewer opportunities for natives, and vice versa, right? The reality, however, is much more complex, as I will show. Further, it is simply false to think of the number of jobs as fixed in the first place. Employment has been generally rising since 2010, which means more jobs for everyone.

A new migrant interested…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed may raise interest rates ‘fairly soon’ thanks to economy’s continued growth (The Washington Post)

The Federal Reserve said the economy’s continued growth might persuade it to raise its benchmark interest rate “fairly soon,” according to minutes from its policy meeting released Wednesday, even as it acknowledged that the ambitious policies proposed by the Trump administration could have unforeseen effects on the U.S. economy.

The Dow Is More than 2000 Points Above Its 200-Day Moving Average (The Wall Street Journal)

Chartwatchers take note: The Dow Jones Industrial Average just did something it’s never done before. The blue-chip index that holds names like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and closed more than 2000 points above its 200-day moving average for the first time in its 120-year plus history, according to WSJ Market Data Group.

Copper Prices Zigzagged Wildly When Almost No One Was Trading (Bloomberg)

When copper went haywire late Monday evening in London, all but a few die-hard traders in China were asleep. The European workday was ending and Americans had a public holiday.

Investors may be banking too much on Trump lifting earnings (Market Watch)

The U.S. stock market has been in rally mode since President Donald Trump’s election victory, with the gains largely coming on the back of two ideas: that the new administration’s policies on taxes and regulation will accelerate economic growth, and that that will lead to improved corporate profits.

Oil rises 1 percent as OPEC sees higher compliance with cuts (Reuters)

Oil prices ended about 1 percent higher after touching three-week highs on Tuesday on OPEC's optimism for greater compliance with its deal with other producers including Russia to curb output in an effort to clear a glut that has weighed on the market.

Chinese Banks' Off-Book Wealth Products Exceed $3.8 Trillion (Bloomberg)

Chinese banks had more than 26 trillion yuan ($3.8 trillion) of wealth-management products held off their balance sheets at the end of December, a 30 percent increase from a year earlier, according to the central bank.

China adjusts yuan midpoint mechanism – sources (Reuters)

China tweaked its formula for setting daily reference


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Hard Times: Sweden Complains It Collects Too Much Tax

Courtesy of Mish.

As a direct result of Sweden’s tax laws in conjunction with negative interest rates by the central bank, Sweden’s citizens now purposely overpay their tax bills in record amounts as a savings vehicle.

Here’s the peculiar result: The Swedish Government Complains it Collects Too Much Tax.

Data released on Wednesday showed Sweden’s government generated a budget surplus of SKr85bn ($9.5bn) in 2016, with approximately SKr40bn coming from tax overpayments. The government will have to repay more than £3.5bn to businesses and individuals who purposely paid too much tax in 2016.

The government wants to discourage further overpayments but the national debt office has admitted its efforts will probably not be enough.

While bank interest rates plummeted, Swedish tax rules meant that excess deposits in taxpayers’ payment accounts continued to earn a minimum of 0.56 percent annual interest, leading many people to use them like makeshift bank accounts.

Most governments would be pleased with an annual budget surplus more than twice the forecast size. But Stockholm has complained that this “involuntary borrowing” from residents will cost it around SKr800m more over 2016 and 2017 than if they had borrowed the money at market rates.

Unfortunately for the debt office, there is little chance that the problem will go away anytime soon. At its latest policy meeting last week the central bank said it was more likely to cut rates further into negative territory than increase them in the short term.

Given negative interest rates, even if Sweden paid zero percent on overpayments, the Swedish government would lose money vs. borrowing from the central bank.

I suppose the government could charge money for excess payments, but officials might be worried about voter backlash.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Original article here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Recession Concerns Grow After Gasoline Demand Slides Most In 16 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two weeks ago, we reported that when Goldman observed the latest gasoline demand data, it said that either something must be wrong with the data, or the US is in a recession: as the firm's commodity analyst Damien Courvalin put it, such a steep drop in in US gasoline demand "would require a US recession." He added that "implied demand data points to US gasoline demand in January declining 460 kb/d or 5.2% year-on-year. In the absence of a base effect, such a decline has only occurred in four periods since 1960 during which time PCE contracted."

Bloomberg's ...



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ValueWalk

Standing Rock Protesters Face Mandatory Evacuation Deadline

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A camp that began for the water ended in flames on Wednesday afternoon as law enforcement moved to close the Dakota Access Pipeline protest camps. Prior to the mandatory evacuation deadline, protesters set fire to many of their remaining structures, arguing that this ceremonial destruction was the only way to prevent the area from being desecrated by law enforcement. A mandatory evacuation deadline had been set for 2 pm, but nearly two hours later, law enforcement remained on the perimeter, encouraging protesters to leave on their own.

The mandatory evacuation deadline was the final stage in process that had begun on Tuesday, when law enforcement set up a roadblock near the camp’s southern gate. At that time, they shut down traffic into the ca...



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Phil's Favorites

Cincarious Research's outdated note on FireEye, posted at Zero Hedge

Note: Cincarious Research contributed the article LifeLock Willing To Give FireEye $16 Per Share In Takeover Offer - Sources to Zero Hedge. It appears to be fake - or at least old - news.

Read this: Who or what is “Cincarious Research?”

Cincarious Research writes,

LifeLock is looking to revamp itself with a purchase of FireEye according to a few of our sources in the security space that are privy to the on-going conversation. We were told the company is seeking to expand offerings and the added cyber-security depth from FireEye on the government level is what LifeLock wants, badly. The deal is set for $16 per share for a total va...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver; Knocking on breakout door again!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver and Gold have continued to head lower since highs reached back in 2011. Is the 6-year bear market nearing an end?

Below looks at the Silver/Gold ratio over the past decade. To be long and strong Silver and Gold, the preference would be for this ratio to be heading higher.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The ratio has formed a clean falling channel (series of lower highs and lower lows) inside of (1). Three different times it knocked on the underside of falling...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Sands Batter Major Explorers' Reserves as Rout Sinks Value (Bloomberg)

Oil-sands investments in Western Canada that gobbled tens of billions of dollars over the past decade are proving an Achilles heel for some of the world’s biggest energy producers.

A definitive breakdown of the gloomy state of Wall Street (Business Insider)

Don't be fooled by the strong rebound in Wall Street trading revenues at the end of 2016: Investment banks still had a lousy year.

...



more from Paul

Chart School

Market Pause

Courtesy of Declan.

Nothing really to add to yesterday. Markets took minor hits, but there was little intraday spread. The biggest spread was in the Russell 2000 which was underperforming heading into today's session. It reversed most of yesterday's gains, but it has some way to go before it begins challenging the breakout


The New Lows and Highs is in a secular bullish pattern, and it will take continued pressure in spike lows to generate a sustained sell off - none of which is happening here.

...

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Digital Currencies

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance of objectivity, and not actually objective, let me give you some background. 

The Obama administration enacted a law known as the Fiduciary Rule, as per Investopedia

The Department of Labor’s definition of a fiduciary demands that advisors act in the best interests of their clients, and to put their clients' interests above their own. It leaves no room for advisors to conce...



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Members' Corner

Lumber Liquidators Leukemia?

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

Phil – LL –   "I can see the ad campaign now: "Our lumber hardly kills you!" 

We Nattered... Today Feb 23, 2016 down -19.5% premarket from $14.21 to $11.27.   

Somebody forgot to convert feet to meters. The CDC said it made an ERROR in the Feb 10th report and had used an incorrect value to calculate ceiling height, which meant its estimates of the airborne concentration of cancer-causing formaldehyde were about three times lower than they should have been. 

Considering myeloid leukemia, some cancers and formaldehyde are linked at the hip, wonder if overexposure had anything to do with the CEO's leukemia?  

LL subsequently went to $19.67 on Sept 30th and has since cooled down to $15....



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By Jean Luc

These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By 

….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence fro...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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