Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Buying the Deepest Stock Dips in 2016 Returned Three Times S&P 500 (Bloomberg)

It’s been a great year for catching falling knives.

Big Week Ahead Highlighted By Fed Meeting, Key Earnings, GDP Estimate (Forbes)

The recipe for this coming week? A stew of earnings, peppered with data and a Fed meeting. Also ahead: A first look at estimated Q2 gross domestic product.

People don’t trust economists anymore (Quartz)

For most of my career it has been good to be an economist. I felt wise, I felt heard. Sure, I got constant reminders from well-meaning people that no one behaves in the rational way that economists generally presume people do. But otherwise it seemed economists had influence and prestige.

Do the Hard Thing, Don’t Do the Easy Thing (Wall Street Journal)

The reach for yield is becoming a reckless lunge.

Credit conditions are the worst since 2009, and yet the market is soaring (Business Insider)

You wouldn’t know it from the boom in stocks that hit new highs after tottering for over a year, and from the surge in junk bonds, even the riskiest ones, whose prices have soared and whose yields have plunged: At the riskiest end of the spectrum, the average yield of CCC-and-below rated junk bonds went from 21.5% on February 12 to 14.2% now, as if all credit problems, defaults, and bankruptcies had suddenly disappeared after the latest Fed flip-flop or whatever.

Full appl 8808921f60Apple: The Next Trillion Dollar Company? (Sum Zero)

Ever since legendary business magnate Carl Icahn sold his Apple shares earlier this year, many investors lost faith in the company’s future and withheld from taking a position in the tech giant. But history shows that following the herd mentality, even if propagated by someone as prophetic as Icahn, isn’t always the best idea.

Why Is Microsoft Making Huge Adjustments To Its GAAP Results? (Seeking Alpha)

On Tuesday, after the market closed, Microsoft

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Denial of the Obvious, Praise for Lies

Courtesy of Mish.

At yet another useless G-20 meeting, Italy’s finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan,  made an official denial regarding  the plight of Italian banks:

There is no risk in terms of systemic stability,” said Padoan. Supposedly, everything is “contained“.

Praise for Lies and Useless Talk

The New York Times reports Group of 20 Will Use ‘All Policy Tools’ to Lift Growth.

Actually, the only policy tools central banks are likely to use are tools that have long-term negative consequences such as negative interest rates and competitive currency devaluations.

Also expect a bunch of useless yap about forward guidance that is nearly always wrong.

Philip Hammond, Britain’s new Chancellor, chimed in with a messages about uncertainty.

“What will start to reduce uncertainty is when we are able to set out more clearly the kind of arrangement we envisage going forward with the European Union,” Hammond told reporters.

Continue reading here…

Hungary’s Prime Minister Praises Trump

Courtesy of Mish.

The anti-terrorist message of Donald Trump appeals to Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban.

#eu Viktor Orban “Trump made three proposals to stop terrorism. As a European, I myself could not have drawn up better what Europe needs.”

— Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 24, 2016

Bloomberg reports Hungary’s Viktor Orban Says Donald Trump Better for Europe.

  • “I am not Donald Trump’s campaigner,” the Hungarian leader said at a cultural event in Baile Tusnad, Romania, an area with a large Hungarian population. “I never thought that the idea would ever occur to me that he is the better of the open options for Europe and Hungary.
  • “I listened to (Trump) and I have to tell you that he made three proposals to stop terrorism. And as a European, I myself could not have drawn up better what Europe needs.”
  • “If I’m asked what is Hungary’s strongest expectation regarding Turkey today, we will put stability first,” Orban said. “If Turkey becomes unstable, many tens of millions of people from that region will hurtle toward Europe without any sort of filtering, screening or control.”
  • “Europe’s current political leadership has failed,” Orban said, adding that the EU was “fooling itself” if it still viewed itself as a “global actor,” saying that era had ended with the vote by Britain to leave the 28-nation bloc.
  • “Our problem is not in Mecca but in Brussels,” Orban said. “The bureaucrats in Brussels are an obstacle for us, not Islam.

Orban arguably did as much to stop the flow of refugees into Europe as did Merkel’s ill-advised deal with Turkey.

After Hungary shut its borders with Serbia and Croatia last year, the flow of migrants coming from Turkey through Greece and further north into the EU collapsed.

Merkel’s deal with Turkey further shut the door, but it was individual nations willing to stand up to Merkel that largely did the trick.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Original article here.

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The cycle of central planning and civil unrest. Central banks making big promises, which traders seem to like. S&P 500 near all-time high. Britain’s economy is shrinking, China’s debt is soaring. Gold corrects; several analysts see a top here. Oil falls for the week. Another terrorist attack, this time at a German shopping mall. Trump makes long, dark acceptance speech, very well-received by Republicans. Clinton picks Tim Kaine for VP.

Best Of The Web

It’s all connected – Globe And Mail
The central planning virus mutates – Acting Man
Cycle of insurgency: cops are being targeted, what’s next? – The Fifth Column
The real reason pharma companies hate medical marijuana – Liberty Blizkrieg
The world is taking its revenge against elites – Guardian
This ‘market’ discounts nothing except monetary cocaine – David Stockman
Something big happened in the gold market – SRSrocco Report
Put your hope in radical decentralization – Mises Institute
From the levellers to the leavers: a history of revolt – Prospect
Stockman: No, Donald, it’s not a ‘World War’ – Daily Reckoning
No, Donald, it’s not a “world war” – David Stockman
Goodbye Leniin, hello Bernanke – ABC
Deutsche Bank loves helicopter money – Zero Hedge


Breaking News

The Economy

7/24    Chinese companies are turning Japanese – Bloomberg

7/24    Britain’s economy shrinking at fastest rate since 2009 – Guardian

7/24    Inequality: the nexus of wealth and debt – Open Democracy

7/24    Positive feedback loop with very negative implications – Mish

7/24    China’s rising bad debts revealed in recent bank listing – Yibada

7/24    Fund managers haven’t done this in 15 years (possibly longer) – Birch Gold

7/24    Weekend edition: Doug Casey on “Brexit” – Casey Research

7/24    America needs a good, old-fashioned economic depression – Mises Institute

7/24    ‘Lesser Depression’ and misplaced confidence in central bankers – David Stockman

7/23    China’s ballooning corporate debt a key tail risk for global credit – Reuters

7/23    Negative interest bites Switzerland’s big banks harder in 2016 – Reuters

7/23    Junk-bond rally hides some cracks – Bloomberg

7/23    If we can’t be honest, no solution is possible –

7/22    Gold: Plan B – SafeHaven

7/22    The serious warning no one’s talking about – Casey Research

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Honeywell Cuts Guidance, Boeing Gives 60-Day Notices

Courtesy of Mish.

This week, Boeing announced layoffs and Honeywell cut guidance. This was expected given my July 17 article Honeywell Internal Email Shows Airplane Boom Time Over, More Layoffs Coming.

Boeing Gives 60-Day Notices

Please consider Boeing Employees Receive 60-Day Notices As Possible Layoffs Loom.

Sixty-day notices of “possible layoffs” were handed out to Boeing employees on Friday, a company spokesperson announced.

Details of exactly how many employees received such notices have not been released. However, spokesperson Jennifer Hogan tells News 9 the possible job cuts are not targeted toward a specific department and are company-wide.

Because the notices are for 60 days, Hogan says total layoff numbers may change through attrition, career changes and retirement.

Honeywell International Cuts Revenue Guidance

Also on Friday Honeywell International Cuts Revenue Guidance

Honeywell International Inc. posted revenue and profit gains in its latest quarter but cut its revenue forecast for the year as the company saw core organic sales fall in its three business units.

Shares in the company, up 3.9% over the past three months, slid 1% to $117.50 in premarket trading.

Honeywell now expects annual sales of between $40 billion to $40.6 billion, down from its previous guidance for sales between $40.3 billion and $40.9 billion. It also increased the low end of its earnings-per-share guidance for the year by 5 cents, now expecting between $6.60 to $6.70.

The Real Numbers Behind GE’s “Beat”

ZeroHedge reports The Real Numbers Behind GE’s “Beat”: Organic Orders -16%; Power -27%; Equipment Orders -30%; Aviation -37%

On the surface, this morning’s GE non-GAAP results (defined as follows: “Non-GAAP results excluding acquired Alstom businesses, non-operating pension costs, gains and restructuring & other charges”) were spun as very bullish, with extensively adjusted revenues of $33.5 billion rising 15% and beating expectations of $31.4 billion, while non-GAAP EPS surged 65% to $0.51, well above the $0.46 expected.

Bloomberg immediately praised the result.

What was less, if at all, noted is that any comparisons to prior periods were apples to oranges, as the entire upside contribution came not only from transaction “gains”, which added $3.1 billion to the top line, and restructuring charges but all the inclusion of the recently acquired Alstom.

So for those curious how the increasingly industrial firm’s organic operations, and especially the above

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Are Stocks Coiling For Another Big Move?


Are Stocks Coiling For Another Big Move?

Courtesy of Dana Lyons



The S&P Mid-Cap Index is trading in the tightest 8-day range in over 20 years; is a big move imminent?

Yesterday, we wrote about the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s rare streak of 7 consecutive all-time highs since its long-awaited breakout. However, scanning the broad equity landscape, it appears that consolidation has been more the norm since the market’s last big up day on July 12. This consolidation is demonstrated by the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index as clearly as any space. Specifically, the 7-day range in the index spans less than 1 percent for just the 8th time ever. And, at precisely 1.00%, the 8-day range is the narrowest in more than 20 years. In fact, all of the historically tighter ranges occurred in the low-volatility early to mid-1990′s period.



So what are the implications of this tight range? Well, it is generally thought that exceptionally tight ranges lead to out-sized moves once the range is broken. The notion is that the action is akin to a coiled spring that, when released, expends its considerable pent-up energy. And, generally, we have found that to be the case with breakouts from similar ranges. However, it also depends on the type of environment we are in as well.

From 1992-1995, for example, the daily average true range in the S&P 400 averaged about 0.65%, an exceptionally low level. Thus, we should not be surprised to see that most of the historically tight trading ranges took place during that period. We also should not be surprised to see that the tight ranges of that era did not always lead to out-sized moves.

On the other hand the average true range during past 4 years has averaged around 1.30%, or about double that of the early-1990′s period. Therefore, when we see an unusually tight range like we are seeing now, it is not unreasonable to expect a sizable move once the tight range is broken.

Additionally, in an environment like the present, a tight range or consolidation is often representative of a continuation pattern.

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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Gasoline Prices Around the World: The Real Cost of Filling Up (Bloomberg)

The price of gas is on the rise again—up five percent globally in the last three months. But cost per gallon alone doesn’t give a complete picture of how big a bite gasoline takes out of an average driver’s paycheck. We ranked 61 countries by three economic measures to see who has the most affordable gas, and who feels the most pain at the pump.

BofA Trading Tops Estimates as Moynihan Vows Deeper Cuts (Bloomberg)

Bank of America Corp. posted higher profit in each of its four main businesses as bond-trading revenue increased more than analysts estimated and expenses fell.

Mazda Miata MX 5These are the best cars of 2016, according to Consumer Reports (Business Insider)

Every year, Consumer Reports and its team of automotive experts test and scrutinize virtually every car sold in the US. Of those cars, a select few stand above the rest and join the vaunted group of vehicles known as Consumer Reports' Top Picks.

Weird things are happening in financial markets — here's an approach that might get investors through them (Business Insider)

It's a strange time in the financial markets, and that's a problem for investors. The solution may be to start focusing on big ideas.

Silicon Valley leads avalanche of quarterly reports (Reuters)

A quartet of technology heavyweights will be part of an avalanche of quarterly corporate earnings reports next week that, along with a meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers, could hold the key to whether Wall Street extends its record-breaking rally or loses steam.

Goldman Seen Struggling to End Dive in Fixed-Income Share (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s fixed-income traders were supposed to take back market share in the second quarter, halting years of declines. That now looks harder, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. blew past analysts’ estimates last week.

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Europe: Positive Feedback Loop with Very Negative Implications

Courtesy of Mish.

Writers frequently say “negative feedback loop” when that is not what they really mean. A negative feedback look is actually a stabilizing mechanism.

Variant Perception provides a nice example in its report Negative Feedback Loop in Europe.

While most of the attention post-Brexit has been on the UK, we are far more concerned about Europe. Markets and the economy operate in a feedback loop, and the performance of European banks relative to the stock market points to a fall in lending ahead in Europe. Banking stocks provide a one year lead on lending growth in Europe. The dire trading of banks will do little to improve the debt-deflationary dynamic at play in Europe.

VP 2016-07-21A

Likewise, the very poor performance of European equities points to lower growth ahead in Europe. As you can see from the next chart, the returns of the Euro Stoxx 600 provides a six month lead on industrial production. Lower prices in European stocks will yield bargains, but we foresee more pain ahead in Europe.

VP 2016-07-21B

Negative Feedback Loops

negative feedback loops

Wikipedia comments on Negative Feedback Loops.

Whereas positive feedback tends to lead to instability via exponential growth, oscillation or chaotic behavior, negative feedback generally promotes stability. Negative feedback tends to promote a settling to equilibrium, and reduces the effects of perturbations. Negative feedback loops in which just the right amount of correction is applied with optimum timing can be very stable, accurate, and responsive.

Negative feedback is widely used in mechanical and electronic engineering, but it also occurs naturally within living organisms.

In context, it is quite clear that Variant Perception means positive feedback loops with negative consequences, alternatively feedback loops that reinforce with increasingly negative results.

The engineering error does not take away from an otherwise useful idea.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

(Original article posted here)

A Fully Automated Stock Market Blow-Off?

Courtesy of Pater Tenebrarum at Acting-Man

Anecdotal Skepticism vs. Actual Data

About one month ago we read that risk parity and volatility targeting funds had record exposure to US equities. It seems unlikely that this has changed – what is likely though is that the exposure of CTAs has in the meantime increased as well, as the recent breakout in the SPX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs should be delivering the required technical signals.

robot traders

The bots keep buying… Illustration via

All these strategies are more or less automated (they may be tweaked from time to time, but essentially they are simply quantitative and/or technical strategies relying on inter-market correlations, volatility measures, and/or momentum). Active fund managers by contrast are said to be skeptical of the market rally, but it should be stressed that the evidence for this is purely anecdotal.

The vast bulk of trading is nowadays automated. We recently read that in 2015, 23% of the entire year’s equity trading volume was accounted for by the top 100 ETFs (h/t to Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital). These are passive investments – in other words, they are brainless.

In addition to this, some 50% of volume is probably attributable to high frequency trading, and the above mentioned black box strategies presumably account for a good chunk of trading volume as well. This raises an interesting question: how many trades are still made by someone who actually thinks about what he is doing? Does it even matter whether active fund managers are skeptical or not?


It looks pensive in this image, but does it actually think? We don’t believe so…

What prompts us to wonder about this is the following chart. It shows the so-called “smart-dumb money confidence spread” calculated by sentimentrader, which tries to show what historically good and bad market timers are doing with their money. Its construction involves mainly real money gauges (for instance options and futures positioning data, short selling data, odd lot purchases, etc.) rather

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Self-Driving Shuttle Starts Operation in Lyon France in September

Courtesy of Mish.

Just this week a truck driver informed me that autonomous trucks are at least “decades away”.

It’s 2016, six to eight years away from my target date, and self-driving shuttles will hit Lyon, France this September.

Navya Ama

Via translation from LyonMag.Com, please consider Free Autonomous Shuttle Starts September.

It was only a matter of time. And it is now official. Two Navya Arma shuttles arrive in the Confluence district in September.

These shuttles driverless, 100% autonomous and fully electric task will be to carry passengers between the leisure division and Confluence shopping and the tip of the peninsula, up to the GL Events seat.

Navya Arma has “lasers that sweep space, cameras and precise GPS”. The Navya should be able to circulate in the Lyon area starting early September, from 7:30 to 18:30. Despite the absence of a driver, the shuttle can reach 25km/hour, safe for passengers or pedestrians.

Navya Arma Video

Some may scoff at 25km/hour (roughly 15.5 mph) but not me. For starters, the shuttle operates in city traffic, with pedestrians, not in interstate highway traffic that in most respects is much easier (no bicycles, no kids playing in the street, no stop signs, no stop lights).

Finally, I point out this is 2016. Where will the technology be eight years from now? Six? Even four?

Autonomous truck naysayers, please get a grip on reality.

Continue reading here…


Zero Hedge

Peak Oil 'Demand' & The Duelling Narratives Of Energy Inventories

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have fallen 23.9 million barrels since the end of April, but, as Bloomberg notes, oil bulls counting on further declines are fighting history. Over the past five years refiners' crude demand has fallen an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from the peak in July to the low in October.

 "The rough part will be once refineries start going into maintenance," said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seat...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Buying the Deepest Stock Dips in 2016 Returned Three Times S&P 500 (Bloomberg)

It’s been a great year for catching falling knives.

Big Week Ahead Highlighted By Fed Meeting, Key Earnings, GDP Estimate (Forbes)

The recipe for this coming week? A stew of earnings, peppered with data and a Fed meeting. Also ahead: A first look at estimated Q2 gross domestic product.


more from Paul

Phil's Favorites

Denial of the Obvious, Praise for Lies

Courtesy of Mish.

At yet another useless G-20 meeting, Italy’s finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan,  made an official denial regarding  the plight of Italian banks:

“There is no risk in terms of systemic stability,” said Padoan. Supposedly, everything is “contained“.

Praise for Lies and Useless Talk

The New York Times reports Group of 20 Will Use ‘All Policy Tools’ to Lift Growth.

Actually, the only policy tools central banks are likely to use are tools that have long-term negative consequences such as negative interest rates and competitive currency devaluations.

Also expect a bunch of useless yap about f...

more from Ilene

Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Moderates

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities Moderated last week. The average gain of the eight indexes on our world watch list was a respectable 0.41%, down from the previous week's steroidal 3.87% average. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the top performer with a 1.41% advance. At the other end, the chronic laggard Shanghai Composite fell 1.36%.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the compara...

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Relypsa Inc (RLYP) Soars On Galenica Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) — to be acquired by Galenica AG (VTX:GALN) for $32 per share in cash is soaring this morning up about 58 percent at the time of this writing in early morning. On the other hand shares of Galenica are down on the announcement by about 8 percent. What are the details of the deal? Here is what the sell side analysts are saying about the pharma news.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) bid – analysts react

Cantor Fitzgerald

Relypsa will be acquired by Galenica for $32 per share, a 59% premium over the last closing price. We have thought that Relypsa would likely be acquired at some point, given the opportunity to grow Veltassa to be a significant commercial brand, ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper going to peak again at 200 Day moving ave?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Doc Copper is often viewed as a leading indicator, for global growth or lack of.

The 200 day moving average is often viewed as the line in the sand to determine if an asset is in an up or down trend.

Is Doc Copper climbing above its 200 day moving average a good or bad sign?

Below looks at Doc Copper over the past decade with the 200 MA applied.


Copper peaked in 2011 and since, has continued to create a series of ...

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Digital Currencies

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide


Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

By Philippa Ryan, University of Technology Sydney

Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.

Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of July 18th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:


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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again



After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.


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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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