Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar, 9-1-15

Watch yesterday's PSW Webinar below and subscribe to our YouTube channel here.

List of Topics

  • 00:00 Disclaimer, market review, 5% rule, trading the futures, how to make $125 in 30 seconds. 
  • 07:30 GTAT had a great product which couldn't be mass produced for AAPL. Stock absoluted imploded. GTATQ is trading at $0.24 but it is not dead yet. 
  • 11:30 Long-term portfolio review
  • 12:30 Netflix position
  • 14:00 Layering on protection, short-term portfolio hedges, SQQQ, SCO, SDS, TZA, NFLX, GLD, futures
  • 21:00 Gasoline, trading
  • 31:00 Russell 2000, 5% rule, futures, trading
  • 38:30 S&P
  • 39:30 Oil
  • 41:45 Auto industry doing well. Discussion of energy use. Mandates for better mileage. Oil demand, oil prices. Solar power. 
  • 52:00 Move in the price of crude oil, WTI chart.  
  • 57:00 Protective stops. Know thy premise.
  • 59:00 Nikkei, indexes, trading, 5% rule, Russell 2000, must hold lines
  • 1:05:00 US Banks. Banks benefit because people put money in the bank for no interest. Whole concept of banking is screwed up. If there's no need for physical money, there's no need for banks. 
  • 1:10:00 Oil over the weekend. 
  • 1:13:00 Sentiment, 1850 on the S&P 500, hedges, TZA, trading.
  • 1:21:30 Commodities. Ugly vegetables ARE edible. 
  • 1:25:15 Disney and the top 1%. It's a high-end park that makes money off of rich people. 
  • 1:30:30 5% portfolio for shorter term opportunities. Rough start. 
  • 1:31:30 Not shorting the Nikkei, it's almost oversold. 
  • 1:34:00 Potential for big fall in October. Is Japan another large risk not being factored into the market today?





Canada in Recession with Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative Growth

Courtesy of Mish.

Yesterday, Yahoo!News reported Canada Officially Enters Recession.

Reeling from low oil prices, Canada fell into a recession in the first half of the year, government data confirmed Tuesday, putting Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper on the defensive in the run-up to October elections.

According to Statistics Canada, the economy contracted 0.5 percent in the second quarter after retreating 0.8 percent in the previous three months.

It is Canada’s second recession in seven years and it is the only Group of Seven nation in economic retreat. The figures are the weakest since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The data reflects fears about the health of the global economy as more gloomy evidence emerged of a slowdown in China, a main engine of growth worldwide.

Canada Recession Call Easy

Unlike the US, where the Fed pegged short-term interest rates so low that the yield curve cannot invert, calling the Canadian recession was easy.

On January 21, 2015 I wrote Canadian Recession Coming Up: Yield Curve Inverts Following Unexpected Rate Cut; Loonie at Six-Year Low.

“Coming Up” happened quickly.

On January 31, I wrote Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015.

Following the rate cut, the yield curve in Canada inverted out to three years. Inversion means near-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates.

I saw no other person mention the inversion at the time. An inverted yield curve generally portends recession.

US Recession Call More Difficult

With constantly huge GDP revisions in the US, and with a yield curve that cannot invert, it’s much tougher calling US recessions.

It remains to be see if a US recession starts this year or not. Spectacular auto sales and modest home building have kept the economy trudging along.



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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Charting the Markets: Volatility Persists (Bloomberg)

Markets continue their wild swings as investors consider the health of the world's two biggest economies. China set the tone on Tuesday with its official manufacturing gauge slumping to a three-year low. A U.S. factory report expanded at the slowest pace since May 2013, contributing to the third-biggest drop in the S&P 500 Index this year. Asian stocks, as measured by the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, have swung between a gain of 0.4 percent and a loss of 1.1 percent.

Gold now looks riskier than stocks (Market Watch)

Any discussion about gold tends to bring out the emotional side of investors.

For some, gold GCZ5, -0.11%  is a store of value that will withstand the test of time — and, in truth, is the only place your money is safe from the government, zombies, or government-bred zombies.

For others, gold is a silly plaything. They see gold investors as delusional or ignorant, or both.

Extreme volatility rocks China stocks (CNN)

The benchmark Shanghai Composite shed 4.2% at the opening bell, only to recover and close with a 0.2% loss. The smaller Shenzhen Composite followed a similar pattern, opening nearly 5% lower before rebounding to post a 2% decline.

The Shanghai index has now crashed roughly 40% from its June 12 peak, wiping out all gains made this year.

Enough about China, everyone's forgetting about 2 major drags on the economy (Business Insider)

It's been a turbulent few months for the markets, led by China's economic rebalancing

But with all the talk of Asia's slowing growth, it's easy to forget about two of the other big drags on on the global economic outlook – Brazil and Russia.

HSBC gdp

Brent back below $50 as oil prices keep sliding (Market Watch)

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as financial markets continued to show weakness and U.S. oil stockpiles likely grew further.

The oil market has been extremely volatile over


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Labor Day 2028

Robert Reich discusses the possibility that advances in technology will soon force an abrupt change in how civilization operates, as the labor supply outpaces the demand for labor, as Keyes once predicted. 

Labor Day 2028

Courtesy of Robert Reich

In 1928, famed British economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that technology would advance so far in a hundred years – by 2028 – that it will replace all work, and no one will need to worry about making money.

“For the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem – how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.”

We still have thirteen years to go before we reach Keynes’ prophetic year, but we’re not exactly on the way to it. Americans are working harder than ever.

Keynes may be proven right about technological progress. We’re on the verge of 3-D printing, driverless cars, delivery drones, and robots that can serve us coffee in the morning and make our beds.

But he overlooked one big question: How to redistribute the profits from these marvelous labor-saving inventions, so we’ll have the money to buy the free time they provide?

Without such a mechanism, most of us are condemned to work ever harder in order to compensate for lost earnings due to the labor-replacing technologies.

Such technologies are even replacing knowledge workers – a big reason why college degrees no longer deliver steadily higher wages and larger shares of the economic pie.

Since 2000, the vast majority of college graduates have seen little or no income gains.

The economic model that predominated through most of the twentieth century was mass production by many, for mass consumption by many.

But the model we’re rushing toward is unlimited production by a handful, for consumption by the few able to afford it.

The ratio of employees to customers is already dropping to mind-boggling lows.

When Facebook purchased the messaging company WhatsApp for $19 billion last year, WhatsApp had fifty-five employees serving 450 million customers.

When more and more can be done by


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Phil Davis on China, Black Monday, Commodities & Technical Analysis

In case you missed Phil's appearance on BNN last week, be sure to watch this excellent video below!

Phil spoke with Kim Parlee on MoneyTalk on Aug. 26 about his call for a 10% correction, China's stock market collapse, commodities, and technical analysis, including the 5% rule and the difference between a bounce and a rally. Watch Phil on Business News Network's Money Talk

Phil is a regular guest on MoneyTalk, Canada's premier personal finance show hosted by Kim Parlee.





Reuters’ Public Relations Missif

 

Reuters’ Public Relations Missif

Courtesy of 

Originally published on Counterpunch

This autumn may see anti-austerity coalitions gain power in Portugal, Spain and Italy, while Marine le Pen’s National Front in France presses for outright withdrawal from the eurozone. These countries face a common problem: how to resist the economic devastation that the European Central Bank (ECB), European Council and IMF “troika” has inflicted on Greece and is now intending to do the same to southern Europe.

To resist the depression and debt deflation that the troika seeks to deepen, one needs to bear in mind the dynamics that make the IMF un-reformable. Its destructive role in Greece provides an object lesson for how southern Europe must shun its horde of ideologues, as Third World countries learned to avoid it by May 2013, the year that Turkey capped the world’s extrication from IMF “advice.” Already in 2008, Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced: “We cannot darken our future by bowing to the wishes of the IMF.”[1] Greek voters have now said the same thing.

To soften resistance to the IMF’s austerity demands, a public relations drive is being mounted to rehabilitate the myth that the Fund can act as an honest broker mediating between anti-labor finance ministers and the PIIGS – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. On Friday, August 28, three Reuters reporters published a long “think piece” trying to show that the IMF is changing and that its head, Christine Lagarde, has seen the light and seeks to promote real debt relief.[2]

The timing of this report seems significant. The IMF got “back in business” in 2010 when its head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, overrode its staff and many Board members in order to join the troika and shift the country’s bad debt from French and German bankers onto the Greek people. That is the story I tell in Killing the Host, which CounterPunch published in an e-version last week. (The hard-print and Kindle versions are now available on Amazon.)

President Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner insisted that Angela Merkel and French President Sarkozy pressure the IMF to go against the opposition of its own staff and join the European Central Bank’s hardline demands that Greece impose austerity. Geithner and…
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How Tethered to China are the Wall Street Banks?

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

Shanghai's Bull Statue on Its Bund Waterfront (left); Bull Statue in Lower Manhattan (right)

Shanghai’s Bull Statue on Its Bund Waterfront (left); Bull Statue in Lower Manhattan (right)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 469.6 points yesterday for a loss of 2.84 percent but Wall Street banks and trading firms took a far heavier bruising. Business media have been placing the blame for global stock market convulsions on China’s slowing economy, devaluation of its currency and seemingly unstoppable selloffs in its wildly inflated stock market. There would seem to be much more to this story than we know so far to explain the outsized fall in Wall Street bank stocks.

Yesterday, with the Dow losing 2.84 percent, the major names on Wall Street fared as follows: Citigroup, down 4.75 percent; Bank of America, down 4.65 percent; Wells Fargo, down 4.39 percent; JPMorgan Chase, down 4.13 percent; Morgan Stanley, down 3.86 percent; and Goldman Sachs, down 3.44 percent. The Blackstone Group, a private equity firm with significant involvement in China, lost 5.26 percent.

These outsized losses versus the Dow’s performance are becoming the norm among the Wall Street banks. In just three trading sessions on Thursday, August 20, Friday, August 21 and Monday, August 24, JPMorgan Chase lost 10.87 percent of its market cap or $27.18 billion. Despite JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s serial reminders of the bank’s “fortress balance sheet,” the market is unconvinced. One has to ask why.

One explanation making the rounds on Wall Street is that even if some of these Wall Street mega banks don’t have a lot of direct exposure to China, they do have a lot of direct exposure to loans they have made to countries and corporate customers who depend on China for earnings. China is the largest buyer of industrial commodities in the world and its economic slowdown and attendant collapse in commodity prices – from oils to metals to agricultural products – is making repayment of loans to banks look riskier.

The major Wall Street banks also have Prime Brokerage relationships with the major hedge funds, a fancy way of saying they provide margin and loans of securities for risky trading.  A growing number of hedge funds have been taking a pounding as trading becomes more erratic.



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Just When You Thought It Couldn’t Get Worse For Brazil…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Brazil’s economy is incredible. 

Just when you’re sure – and we mean sure – that it can’t possibly get any worse, or at least not materially worse in the very short-term, something else happens to further underscore the deep, dark economic malaise plaguing one of the world’s most important emerging markets. 

So after last Friday’s GDP print which confirmed that the country slid into recession during Q2 – a quarter in which Brazilians suffered through the worst inflation-growth outcome in at least a decade – and after July’s budget data which confirmed that the country’s fiscal situation is, as Citi put it, “a bloody terror film,” we got a look at industrial production today and boy, oh boy, was it bad. So bad in fact, that it missed even the lowest analyst expectations.

Here are some key excerpts from Goldman's breakdown:

Sharp Decline in Industrial Production in July

IP contracted by a much larger than expected -1.5% mom sa (-8.9% yoy) in July (vs. the -0.1% mom sa market consensus). Furthermore, the June print was revised down to -0.9% mom sa from the original -0.3% mom sa. During the last nine months industrial production declined at an average monthly rate of -0.9% mom sa. Of the 24 main industrial segments, 14 recorded a contraction of output in July.

IP declined 8.9% yoy in July, with the largest decline recorded in capital goods -27.8%. Overall, IP declined 6.6% yoy during January-July 2015.

IP has now contracted for eight consecutive quarters and is likely to decline again during 3Q2015.

In July, IP was 14.1% below the peak level registered in June 2013 and was at the same level as March-April 2006.

The industrial sector (which has been reducing headcount) contracted 1.1% in 2014 and we expect it to contract at a much higher rate in 2015 as it continues to face strong headwinds from high levels of inventories, record low confidence indicators, a high and rising tax burden, rising energy costs, and weak external demand (particularly from Argentina for durable goods). 

Meanwhile, exports cratered 24% and critically, it wasn't all because of lower commodity prices.

CDS now at six-year wides…

 





Wage Growth Meme Destroyed – Unit Labor Costs Tumble At Fastest Pace In A Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Unit Labor Costs dropped 1.4% in Q2, missing expectations of a 1.2% drop and falling to the lowest since Q2 2014. Despite all the sound and fury and wage growth looming any minute now… it is not! This is the first consecutive drop in unit labor costs since Q4 2008.

Charts: Bloomberg





Odds Favor A Year-End Rally…After A New Low

 

Odds Favor A Year-End Rally…After A New Low

Courtesy of Dana Lyons' Tumblr

image

August 6-month lows have had a tendency to be broken in the coming months, prior to a year-end bounce.

After getting kicked in the teeth in August, the stock market is starting out September by getting stomped on the head. Following the historic rebound to end last week, investors were hoping that the worst was behind them. As we noted regarding such rebounds yesterday, however, perhaps we should not be surprised by renewed weakness. And adding further evidence to support the “retest” scenario versus the “V-bottom” scenario, today’s post looks at 6-month lows in the S&P 500 occurring in August and the resultant performance through the end of the year.

Going back to 1950, this is the 13th year in which the S&P 500 has reached a 6-month low (on an intraday-basis), the most of any month besides July and October. Here are the 13 years:

  • 1953
  • 1966
  • 1971
  • 1973
  • 1974
  • 1977
  • 1981
  • 1982
  • 1990
  • 1998
  • 2004
  • 2011
  • 2015

How did the S&P 500 react to these August lows? Here is a chart showing the performance of the index from September 1 through year-end in each of the years listed above (FYI, the chart indicates performance based on the % above or below the August low).

 

image

 

First of all, apologies for the busy chart. Second of all, are there any patterns consistent enough to take into consideration when navigating the next 4 months? Well, that’s up to you, but there are a few notable tendencies among the sample of 12 prior instances.

  • 10 of the 12 years saw the S&P 500 drop below the August at some point before the end of the year.
  • Only 1982 and 2004 saw the S&P 500 hold above the August low through year-end.
  • The median low-point among the entire sample was -3.7% below the August


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Zero Hedge

Why The Federal Reserve Should Be Audited

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by John Crudele via NYPost.com,

It is time for a comprehensive audit of Janet Yellen ’s Federal Reserve - and not just for the reasons presidential candidate Rand Paul and others have given.

The Fed needs to be audited to see if its ruling body has broken the law by manipulating financial markets that are outside its jurisdiction. A thorough investigation of the Fed will show once and for all if its former chief Ben Bernanke and current Chairwoman Yellen should go to jail.

I know, that’s a bold statement coming as it does on Sept. 1, 2015, with Wall Street st...



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Phil's Favorites

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar, 9-1-15

Watch yesterday's PSW Webinar below and subscribe to our YouTube channel here.

List of Topics

  • 00:00 Disclaimer, market review, 5% rule, trading the futures, how to make $125 in 30 seconds. 
  • 07:30 GTAT had a great product which couldn't be mass produced for AAPL. Stock absoluted imploded. GTATQ is trading at $0.24 but it is not dead yet. 
  • 11:30 Long-term portfolio review
  • 12:30 Netflix position
  • 14:00 Layering on protection, short-term portfolio hedges, SQQQ, SCO, SDS, TZA, NFLX, GLD, futures
  • 21:00 Gasoline, trading
  • 31:00 Russell 2000, 5% rule, futures, trading
  • 38:30 S&P
  • ...


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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Charting the Markets: Volatility Persists (Bloomberg)

Markets continue their wild swings as investors consider the health of the world's two biggest economies. China set the tone on Tuesday with its official manufacturing gauge slumping to a three-year low. A U.S. factory report expanded at the slowest pace since May 2013, co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Long-Term bull market still alive, trend support is where?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The S&P 500 is now down around 7% on the year. Is the very long-term bull market still in play? Yes it is!!!

The chart below looks at the NYSE Composite on a monthly basis, dating back to 1965.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

As you can see, since the mid 60’s, the NYSE composite has remained inside of rising channel (A). The last time the top of the channel was touched was in the late 1990’s and the last time the bottom of the channel was touched took place back in 2009.

Despite the quick down turn of late, this long-term rising channel remains in ta...



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Insider Scoop

Look Beyond Q3 For This Digital Marketing Leader

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ADBE Benzinga's Top Upgrades Baird: Now's The Time To Buy Adobe The Vetr community has upgraded $ADBE to 4.5-Stars. (Vetr)
  • Shares of Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: ADBE) have risen over 5 percent year-to-date.
  • Oppenheimer’s Brian Schwartz has initiated coverage of Adobe Systems with a Perform rating.
  • While expr...


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Chart School

Distribution Selling Returns

Courtesy of Declan.

After the late recovery last week, sellers again made markets their home. Sizable losses were accompanied with higher volume distribution, although volume was down on earlier panic.  Another pass at August lows looks likely.

The S&P is again heading to the 10% 200-day MA envelope. Relative performance is shifting away from Large Caps to more speculative indices, which is bullish in a rising market, but in a falling market suggests a lack of sanctuary.


The Nasdaq is also in the early stages of a retest of the August low. Technicals are weak, although stochastics crept above the bullish mid-line, but not enough to suggest ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 31st, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



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ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>