Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

“Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks”

What do you think?

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.





Who should pay for damage associated with climate change – and who should be compensated?

 

Who should pay for damage associated with climate change – and who should be compensated?

Courtesy of John Vogler, Keele University and Marit Hammond, Keele University

Hurricanes in the Caribbean and deadly floods across South Asia have once again raised the issue of climate justice.

The association between such events and climate change is now beyond serious question: we have had 30 years of well-founded scientific warnings about the relationship between increasing global temperatures and the incidence and severity of extreme weather. Much more problematic is the question of responsibility for climate change itself, and who should justly pay compensation for the resulting damage.

This is complicated, and there are no clear categories of winners and losers, or responsible and blameless. Consider how the benefits from greenhouse gas emissions are usually divorced from the impacts of climate change, yet hurricane-hit Texas owes much of its wealth to oil. Or look at the extraordinary inequalities among those affected by the storms – most are relatively poor, but a few are among the world’s richest people.

The long struggle for ‘climate justice’

International debate on climate justice has usually occurred within the UN, via its Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in a process which led to the Paris Agreement. For much of the time since its inception in 1992 there was a heavy focus on cutting emissions rather than on adaptation to the damaging consequences of climate change.

Responsibility for global warming was usually framed as an obligation for developed states to make the initial moves to reduce their emissions, under the concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”. Climate justice was seen as something developed states owed less developed states, and were obliged to deliver so the latter had an incentive to cut their emissions, too.

Calls for ‘hard caps’ on emissions at the UN climate conference in Bali, 2007. OpenDemocracy, CC BY-SA

However, by the Bali conference in 2007 it was clear that climate-related sea level rise and extreme weather events were already happening. Adaptation was therefore moved up the agenda alongside emissions cuts. In crude terms, if…
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Tech Stocks as Career Obsolescence Insurance

 

Tech Stocks as Career Obsolescence Insurance

Courtesy of 

Posted this poll this morning and the results came out just I had expected.

Is it at all possible that multiples are elevated for some segments of the stock market because people are investing based on metrics that have nothing to do with those prized by prior generations of investors? And, further, is it possible that these new investor predilections – for revenue growth and industry dominion and the capacity to disrupt a wide variety of industries and TAM (total addressable market) – is completely reasonable?

Target and Macy’s and Ford Motors and Best Buy did an admirable job chugging along at single-digit percent earnings growth rates for decades. And what was the point? Who benefitted? Why should investors prefer the shares of CVS and Walgreens and other sitting ducks who persist in this same strategy?

Identifying a company with a good profit margins and a nice earnings / dividend payout may have rewarded investors in the past. But identifying the companies that are going to eat all of the other companies and, by extension, someday be able to produce much higher earnings / dividend payouts might be the better route. The stock market seems to be voting this way.

The tech sector represents 23.5% of the S&P 500 as of the end of August. And just for context, this doesn’t even include the $80 billion value of Netflix or the $474 billion value of Amazon – both are classified as consumer discretionary. It also doesn’t include the $70 billion value of Tesla, which is not even in the S&P 500 despite being more valuable than 400 of the companies in the index.

Verizon and AT&T (worth a combined $440 billion) are not in the technology sector classification, but can anyone truly argue that they do anything but technology? That they aren’t, in fact, two…
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McCain to Reverse Obamacare Vote Provided the Governor of Arizona Agrees

Courtesy of Mish

An Obamacare repeal is back in play as McCain Signals He’s Now a ‘Yes’, provided the governor of Arizona agrees.

Senate Republicans have only until the end of the month to repeal Obamacare under a special legislative process, and there were new signs Monday that the GOP is getting closer to the magic number of votes.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona told an MSNBC correspondent he might “reluctantly” vote for the measure offered by Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, both Republicans. Their bill gets rid of the individual and employer mandates and the 2.3% tax on medical devices, and block-grants money to states, leaving reform up to governors.

McCain said he wanted to determine if the concerns of Arizona’s governor were “taken care of.” Monday afternoon, Gov. Doug Ducey called the bill “the best path forward to repeal and replace Obamacare.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly told Republicans that if the bill has the support of at least 50 of the 52 GOP senators, he’ll bring it to the floor. Under the reconciliation process, it would need 50 votes to pass, assuming Vice President Mike Pence breaks the tie.

But even if McCain supports it, Republicans may not quite be at the needed number of votes. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has said he’s a “no.” Meanwhile, Maine’s Sen. Susan Collins says she “has concerns.”

That may leave the bill’s fate in the hands of Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski. Earlier Monday, she told a CNN reporter she was undecided. In July, Murkowski, Collins and McCain voted against a different Republican plan to repeal Obamacare, scuttling that bill. Paul voted “yes” on that bill.

Poll – Repealed This Year?

McCain to Reverse Obamacare Vote Provided the Governor of Arizona Agrees

https://t.co/iq1gjrerI6

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 18, 2017

Mike “Mish” Shedlock





300,000 women are missing from economics

 

300,000 women are missing from economics

Courtesy of Homa ZarghameeBarnard CollegeSamuel BowlesSanta Fe Institute, and Wendy CarlinUCL

File 20170918 8300 1bhq5ae

shutterstock.com

Economics is an overwhelmingly male field; and the problem is not going away. Less than a third of economics students today are women. A pervasive myth about the missing women students in economics – about 300,000 of them in the US alone by our rough count – is that the problem is their poor maths skills. You know: economics is too maths focused, and women are maths-phobic, right? That must be the problem.

Wrong.

In the US, today, the share of women graduating in mathematics and statistics is higher than in economics. It is not mathematics that’s the problem.

A more likely and more uncomfortable culprit – sexism in economics – has been called out in an audacious undergraduate dissertation written by Alice Wu of the University of California, Berkeley. She used computational linguistic methods to compare how male and female economists were described on Economics Job Market Rumors, an online forum popular with economics graduate students, especially those hoping to land their first job.

In hundreds of thousands of postings, comments related to women commonly use abusive or sexist language. We won’t repeat the actual words that Wu found to be statistically most frequently associated with female names. Words associated with men (excepting “homosexual”) were most likely neutral or positive (“adviser”, “goals” and the like). In contrast to the comments on women economists, male body parts were not deemed worthy of mention. Not surprisingly, this has made news, notably in the New York Times.

To our credit, economics, perhaps more than any other discipline, has attempted to identify the causes and effects of discrimination at work and in society as a whole. But cleaning up our own house has not been high on the agenda – domestic labour apparently being someone else’s job.

At least, not until recently. Over the past decade or so projects supported by bodies from the American Economic Association to the Reserve Bank of Australia have explored how to make more of women as role models in teaching and mentoring, and considered less competitive teaching and…
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Why Hurricanes Harvey and Irma won’t lead to action on climate change

 

Why Hurricanes Harvey and Irma won't lead to action on climate change

Courtesy of Scott Gabriel KnowlesDrexel University

File 20170914 22524 13rjti4

Picking up the pieces in Florida after Hurricane Irma. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

It’s not easy to hold the nation’s attention for long, but three solid weeks of record-smashing hurricanes directly affecting multiple states and at least 20 million people will do it.

Clustered disasters hold our attention in ways that singular events cannot – they open our minds to the possibility that these aren’t just accidents or natural phenomena to be painfully endured. As such, they can provoke debates over the larger “disaster lessons” we should be learning. And I would argue the combination of Harvey and Irma has triggered such a moment.

The damages caused by the storms will undoubtedly lead to important lessons in disaster preparation and response. For many, though, the most urgent call for learning has been to acknowledge at long last the connection between climate change and severe weather.

Will this cluster of disasters provide the lever that will move climate change in the United States from a “debate” to an action plan?

It’s easy to view disaster history in this cause-effect way – to hop in time from disaster to disaster and spot the reforms as though they naturally emerge from adversity and commitment to change. But as a historian with a focus on risk and disasters, I can say this view can be misleading.

Generational reform

Early in the 20th century, the United States went through an era of profound concern over urban disasters that seemed to threaten city life itself.

In December 1903, the Iroquois Theatre Fire in Chicago killed over 600 audience members due to faulty construction. Just over a month later, in February 1904, the Great Baltimore Fire consumed 140 acres of the city. That same month, a major fire ravaged Rochester. In June of the same year over 1,000 people died due to a fire aboard the General Slocum steamship in New York City.

Newspapers of the era were full of anger and fear over the dangers of fire…
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I predicted the last financial crisis – now soaring global debt levels pose risk of another

 

I predicted the last financial crisis – now soaring global debt levels pose risk of another

Courtesy of Steve Keen, Kingston University

File 20170915 8081 k338ri

shutterstock.com

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

This phrase may have religious roots, but there is no better way to describe the dominant sect in economics today than as wilfully blind. A decade after the 2007-08 crisis, most still repeat the mantra that it could not have been predicted.

Nonsense. The data that showed what would cause the crisis, and arguments by non-mainstream economists that one would occur, were available before it hit. There was a runaway bubble in asset markets caused by too much credit being created by banks.

Credit – your capacity to buy something with money borrowed from a bank, rather than from your own cash – is exactly equal to the increase in private debt every year. The bigger this is compared to a country’s GDP (economic output), the more the economy is dependent on credit; and the bigger the accumulated debt is when compared to GDP, the more likely it is that a reduction in credit will cause an economic crisis.

The data is incontrovertible

The data, if you look at it, is incontrovertible – especially if you consider the epicentre of the 2008 crisis, the US, in historical context. The Great Depression triggered by the crash of 1929 was preceded by a margin-debt-fuelled bubble on the US stock market, with private debt blowing out during the crisis and then collapsing. That’s exactly what happened in 2007-08 – only with mortgage debt also getting in on the act.

Private debt affects the economy in two ways: the higher debt is, relative to GDP, the more that a change in credit impacts on total demand. And credit adds to total demand by allowing people to spend more than just the money they currently have.

The correlation between credit and employment in the US is staggering. This is not just because it
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Don’t blame climate change for the Hurricane Harvey disaster – blame society

 

Don't blame climate change for the Hurricane Harvey disaster – blame society

Courtesy of Ilan Kelman, UCL

Weather and climate don’t cause disasters – vulnerability does. Perhaps counter-intuitively, this means that the widespread discussion as to whether the Hurricane Harvey disaster was caused by climate change or not becomes a dangerous distraction.

The hurricane was born off the coast of South America in mid-August and then tracked through the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in the US on August 25. The storm surge and winds devastated coastal settlements, after which the storm stalled, dumping immense rainfall over Houston. At the time of writing, the confirmed death toll had just reached 14 and there are expectations that this will soon rise.

A disaster involving a hurricane cannot happen unless people, infrastructure and communities are vulnerable to it. People become vulnerable if they end up lacking knowledge, wisdom, capabilities, social connections, support or finances to deal with a standard environmental event such as a hurricane.

This can happen if lobbyists block tougher building codes, planning regulations, or enforcement procedures. Or if families can’t afford insurance or the cost of alternative accommodation if they evacuate. Or if limited hurricane experience induces a sense of apathy.

Often, people with disabilities rarely have their needs met when away from home. Fear of harassment or assault could stop others from entering a communal shelter. Legal or undocumented immigrants might not understand warnings and might fear the prospect of detention if they seek help.

These possible scenarios represent reasons why people in Texas might end up and remain in harm’s way. Anecdotes point to all these issues having played a part during Harvey, but only careful research in the months ahead will be able to confirm or refute them. It is nevertheless such vulnerability issues that cause the disaster. None relate to the hurricane’s physical characteristics.

Climate change

Yes, climate change can and does influence hurricanes. The ocean’s temperature – to a certain degree – drives hurricane intensity, especially the coastal flooding level and the amount of rainfall. If the Gulf of Mexico was warmer than usual, or if some atmospheric winds were weaker than usual, then part of Harvey’s strength…
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Machine gaydar: AI is reinforcing stereotypes that liberal societies are trying to get rid of

 

Machine gaydar: AI is reinforcing stereotypes that liberal societies are trying to get rid of

Courtesy of Ansgar KoeneUniversity of Nottingham

File 20170913 23100 103t9kn

Artem Oleshko/Shutterstock

Following the old saying that “knowledge is power”, companies are seeking to infer increasingly intimate properties about their customers as a way to gain an edge over their competitors. The growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI), algorithms that use machine learning to analyse large multifaceted data sets, provides an especially attractive way to do this. In particular, the rapid advancement in AI capabilities for pattern discrimination and categorisation are leading researchers to explore its capabilities for increasingly complex data mining tasks.

This technology is no longer restricted to simple categorisation of directly traceable online behaviours (“likes” of particular brands, for example) or image objects (cat vs dog). AI is also being deployed to try to infer such intimate characteristics as personality, gender and age from language usage on social media, and to use face image analysis to predict the likelihood of someone committing a crime or being a terrorist or paedophile. Most recently, a group of Stanford researchers have used AI to predict sexual orientation from facial images. Clearly the development of such methods for inferring intimate details about people carries strong implications for personal privacy.

A potentially even more problematic aspect of this push towards algorithmic categorisation of people is the accompanying tendency towards simplistic reduction. To train AI to categorise humans, one needs to provide discretely defined target categories and large sets of labelled data. This forces one to reduce complex humans into discrete socio-psychological classes.

Machine gaydar

The recent study on detecting if a person is gay or straight based on a photograph is a clear example of how the choice of label categories imposes a binary view of sexuality. The aim of the study was to show that faces contain subtle information about sexual orientation that can be perceived and interpreted by deep neural networks (a class of AI).

In order to obtain the large data sets required for this type of machine learning, they harvested 130,741 facial images from public profiles posted on a US dating website. The data set contained…
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The five most addictive substances on Earth – and what they do to your brain

 

The five most addictive substances on Earth – and what they do to your brain

Courtesy of Eric BowmanUniversity of St Andrews

Pre-WWI Bayer heroin bottle, originally containing 5g of heroin. Wikimedia Commons

What are the most addictive drugs? This question seems simple, but the answer depends on whom you ask. From the points of view of different researchers, the potential for a drug to be addictive can be judged in terms of the harm it causes, the street value of the drug, the extent to which the drug activates the brain’s dopamine system, how pleasurable people report the drug to be, the degree to which the drug causes withdrawal symptoms, and how easily a person trying the drug will become hooked.

There are other facets to measuring the addictive potential of a drug, too, and there are even researchers who argue that no drug is always addictive. Given the varied view of researchers, then, one way of ranking addictive drugs is to ask expert panels. In 2007, David Nutt and his colleagues asked addiction experts to do exactly that – with some interesting findings.

1. Heroin

Nutt et al.’s experts ranked heroin as the most addictive drug, giving it a score of 3 out of a maximum score of 3. Heroin is an opiate that causes the level of dopamine in the brain’s reward system to increase by up to 200% in experimental animals. In addition to being arguably the most addictive drug, heroin is dangerous, too, because the dose that can cause death is only five times greater than the dose required for a high.

Heroin also has been rated as the second most harmful drug in terms of damage to both users and to society. The market for illegal opiates, including heroin, was estimated to be $68 billion worldwide in 2009.

2. Cocaine

Cocaine directly interferes with the brain’s use of dopamine to convey messages from one neuron to another. In essence, cocaine prevents neurons from turning the dopamine signal off, resulting in an abnormal activation of the brain’s reward pathways. In experiments on…
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Phil's Favorites

Government By Goldman

By Gary Rivlin and Michael Hudson via The Intercept, in partnership with The Investigative Fund

As posted at Zero Hedge

Steve Bannon was in the room the day Donald Trump first fell for Gary Cohn. So were Reince Priebus, Jared Kushner, and Trump’s pick for secretary of Treasury, Steve Mnuchin. It was the end of November, three weeks after Trump’s improbable victory, and Cohn, then still the president of Goldman Sachs, was at Trump Tower presumably at the invitation of Kushner, with whom he was friendly. Cohn was there to offer his views about jobs and the economy. But, like the man he was there to meet, he...



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Zero Hedge

Government By Goldman

By Gary Rivlin and Michael Hudson via The Intercept, in partnership with The Investigative Fund

As posted at Zero Hedge

Steve Bannon was in the room the day Donald Trump first fell for Gary Cohn. So were Reince Priebus, Jared Kushner, and Trump’s pick for secretary of Treasury, Steve Mnuchin. It was the end of November, three weeks after Trump’s improbable victory, and Cohn, then still the president of Goldman Sachs, was at Trump Tower presumably at the invitation of Kushner, with whom he was friendly. Cohn was there to offer his views about jobs and the economy. But, like the man he was there to meet, he...



more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrency Concentration - Just 4% Own Over 95% Of Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin has been making a lot of news lately. The cryptocurrency shot up in value by over 200% in 2017, making many people fear that the market is in a bubble. Last week, China...



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Chart School

Minor Changes: Yesterday's and Weekend Comments Remain Valid

Courtesy of Declan.

I don't want to overplay today's action as little changed in the broader scheme of things. Days like today are welcomed and help shape up swing trades for those trading in near term timeframes.

The tight doji in the S&P could be used for a swing trade; buy a break of the high/short loss of low - stop on flip side. High whipsaw risk but look for 3:1 risk:reward and maybe trail stops if deciding to go with partial profits.


Tech averages are still set up for a breakout. While not an ...

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ValueWalk

FBN Beats CNBC Even During Delivering Alpha Week

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fox Business Network ratings for the week of September 11th – September  15th.  FBN beat CNBC even during their big annual Delivering Alpha Conference which is one of the biggest investment conferences of the year with Lou Dobbs leading the pack – another big win for FBN – see more details below

FOX BUSINESS NETWORK SWEEPS CNBC IN BUSINESS DAY FOR EIGHTH TIME THIS YEAR

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your de...



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Insider Scoop

Considering Implications For Hasbro And Mattel From The Toys 'R' Us Bankruptcy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HAS Toy Stocks Mostly Lower After Toys 'R' Us Confirms Bankruptcy Watch These 8 Huge Put Purchases In Tuesday Trade ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks"

What do you think?

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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