Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.
Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!
I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.
Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more.
It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.
Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013)
Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…
Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.
Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.
We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!
Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.
Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.
I have been trading for quite a few years and in good years made about 25%. After joining PSW, I followed closely the PSW strategy and my trading profit for this year is close to 70% to date. For fun, I like to mix in a few "Hail Mary" plays that really worked out well, but overall the simpler Buy/Write strategy, as presented by Phil so often, created the majority of the profit.
I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.
Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!
I am an Economist at Harvard and some of my colleagues and I would like to let you know that we follow your posts on SA, and find your analysis refreshing, rigorous, and acute. Great work! Though many of us (including myself) have our work covered in the Wall St Journal, in many ways your macro commentary is more fearless and accurate than what is generally found in that venerable publication.
I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.
Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.
GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.
100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!
I traded with Phil for approximately three years, and consistently averaged 80% returns yearly... some of which was due to my skills as a trader, but much was a direct result of what I learned as a member of Phil's site.... both from Phil, and the many talented traders that hang out there. Phil... if you are reading along... thanks, again for the approximately $ 3 mil I made tagging along with you.... in order to make you feel good for the work you did... I gave the government 50% of it all, so you made your contribution....
/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
I must give kudos to Phil for changing my way of thinking. I'm a gambler by nature and used to just play the indexes with 3x etf's… well I still do, but the options give far better returns than I ever dreamed of. With these wild swings I've been catching 50-100% winners in days.
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade...
but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys....
and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,
I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.
Thanks, Phil!!! I just crushed today with it with silver (SLV) calls today, thanks to your persistent reminders of how ridiculously cheap it has become, and watching my TSLA this week $240 puts dissolve into chump change added an extra note of amusement.
How to interpret the outcome of the Italian referendum? Matteo Renzi’s government is clearly the loser – and the prime minister announced his widely expected resignation as soon as the result was in.
The proposed constitutional reform would have given much more power to Renzi by taking it away from the Italian Senate. It was part of a wider package of political reforms pushed by his government which can be summed up as the idea that Italy needed to be “unlocked”. The constitutional changes were presented as consolidating this new trajectory, together with a new electoral law designed to underpin the reformed constitution. The referendum confirmed that 59.1% of voters had other ideas.
Renzi’s government was initially wildly popular but lost support as it became clearer over nearly three years in power that the material conditions of large sections of the population were not progressing but stagnating or, in some cases, getting worse.
Constitutional matters in Italy have traditionally been kept separate from ordinary politics, but not on this occasion. Because the government drafted and submitted the reform proposals rather than the parliament, and Renzi said that he would resign if he lost, it became a vote on the government’s policies – and of course its leader.
Winners and losers
For weeks, the prospect of a defeat for the government has been framed as another reaction against the establishment – hardly surprising in the context of Trump, Brexit and other populist movements toppling centrists around the world.
Such a reading might be supported by a quick look at some of the components behind the No campaign. The Northern League and Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement represent two rather different types of right-wing politics that are prone to frame their messages in a populist way – albeit Five Star is the only one that fully fits the anti-establishment archetype seen in other countries. Yet while the government was clearly the political subject behind the proposed constitutional reform, there was no overarching narrative behind the No campaign.
We discuss the markets in general today in this video before moving onto the topic of American Greed, and an analysis and cure for the typical way investors lose all their money to these Ponzi Schemes. Ask for 3 year audited returns from an accredited 3rd Party auditing firm.
In response to the Italian Referendum which caused prime minister Matteo Renzi to resign, the Euro/USD took a dive from 1.0672 to as low as 1.0506.
The Euro has since rallied strongly, gaining 2.7 percent. What’s going on?
Euro/US Dollar 15-Minute Chart
What’s Going On With the Euro?
More than likely this is a combination of several factors:
Traders positioned themselves heavily short the euro expecting the referendum to fail. Sentiment was extreme enough, there were few left to short.
The referendum failed by a larger than expected amount, but Italy will not blow up or leave the eurozone immediately. Itlay will leave the eurozone in due time, but the market won’t worry about that until the last moment as is the case in the typical European crisis.
It was a bitter U.S. presidential election, but fortunately, the nastiest election mudslinging has come to an end…at least until the next political contest. Unfortunately, like most elections, even after the president-elect has been selected, almost half the country remains divided and the challenges facing the president-elect have not disappeared.
While some non-Trump voters have looked at the glass as half empty, since the national elections, the stock market glass has been overflowing to new record highs. Similar to the unforeseen British Brexit outcome in which virtually all pollsters and pundits got the results wrong, U.S. experts and investors also initially took a brief half-glass full view of the populist victory of Donald Trump. More specifically, for a few hours on Election Day, stock values tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average index collapsed by approximately -5%.
It didn’t take long for stock prices to quickly reverse course, and when all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the month higher by almost +1,000 points (+5.4%) to finish at 19,124 – a new all-time record high (see chart below). Worth noting, stocks have registered a very respectable +10% return during 2016, and the year still isn’t over.
Source: Investors.com (IBD)
Drinking the Trump Egg Nog
Why are investors so cheery? The proof will be in the pudding, but current optimism is stemming from a fairly broad list of anticipated pro-growth policies.
At the heart of the reform is the largest expected tax reform since Ronald Reagan’s landmark legislation three decades ago. Not only is Trump proposing stimulative tax cuts for corporations, but also individual tax reductions targeted at low-to-middle income taxpayers. Other facets of the tax plan include simplification of the tax code; removal of tax loopholes; and repatriation of foreign cash parked abroad. Combined, these measures are designed to increase profits, wages, investment spending, productivity, and jobs.
On the regulatory front, the President-elect has promised to repeal the Obamacare healthcare system and…
Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has carried out his promise to resign after losing a referendum on his country’s constitution. This brings an end to a tenure that lasted just 1,000 days.
In a moving speech, Renzi said: “I have lost … I take full responsibility for this result.” His decision marked a break from the post-war norm in Italian politics. Renzi was actually seeing through on his promise. “This time, when you lose you step down,” he said. “You do not carry on as though nothing has happened.”
The 65.5% Italians who voted in this referendum not only rejected the proposed constitutional change, they completely annihilated it. An enormous 59.1% voted No and 40.9% voted Yes, siding with Renzi. Only three regions voted Yes: Tuscany, Emilia Romagna and South Tyrol – two of which are traditional strongholds of Renzi’s party.
The decisiveness of the result has completely shocked the nation. While a No vote was always a possibility, the margin was expected to be close. Back in April, the Yes camp was seen to have an advantage.
In the end, the No supporters seemed to have come from a far wider coalition of voters than expected – including people from the left and even senior figures in Renzi’s own party. Indeed, they were so broadly spread across the political spectrum that it has been said there were no winners in this referendum. No single political party can claim the victory. If a winner were to be declared, it would surely be political participation – even Italian democracy – given the extraordinarily high turnout.
But while many have sought to portray the Italian referendum as the latest battle in the war between populists and the establishment, that would be an oversimplification of what has happened to Renzi.
Yes, this was an anti-establishment vote, but it was not necessarily an expression of populism. The No vote was intrinsically linked to Renzi – it was not a sign of support for any of his rivals, but…
The non-manufacturing PMI follows on the heels of a good showing for manufacturing.
Both indices rose in November according to the ISM Report on Business.This was a solid report with a couple of caveats.
The ISM is a diffusion index as are the Fed regional manufacturing reports. Such indices measure improvement or not. For example, employment rising by 10 employees at one company will offset employment falling by 500 at another company (or vice versa).
The stronger US dollar and troubles in Europe will at some point weigh on exports.
It has been a long, strange trip towards 2017. Donald Trump is due to get his hands on the nuclear codes Jan. 20, so thinking too far into the future may be a pointless exercise — but let's suppose humanity makes it out the other side of his presidency more or less in one piece and engage in some literary speculation.
There will still be two impending crises — urgent now and more urgent in the years to come — with the potential wreak havoc on our society, economy and politics. First, the increasing automation of jobs may lead to the end of work as we currently know it. Second, climate change will fundamentally alter how we interact with the planet and the resources that it provides.
Sociologist and writer Peter Frase suggests that these existential threats could spur a dramatic reordering of society — for better or for worse. In his new book, Four Futures: Life After Capitalism, Frase examines the different ways humanity might respond. Drawing on science fiction, Frase paints pictures of two utopias, in which automation and climate change push us toward a more egalitarian society, and two dystopias, in which these forces do the opposite. “There are four scenarios,” he writes: “Star Trek, Big Government, Ecotopia, Mad Max.”
Frase's second influence, besides science fiction, is Karl Marx: The other names he gives his four futures are rooted firmly in political theory. Future 1, or the "Star Trek" utopia, is communism, in which there is enough stuff to go around, due to automation (3-D printers, perhaps, could be responsible for all manufacturing), and that stuff is shared according to each person's needs. Future 2 is rentism, in which automation provides unlimited resources, but elites control who has access to them; Frase likens this future to the way in which intellectual property laws control access to information, including medical texts that could save lives, today. It's the "Big Government" dystopia.
Future 3 is socialism, in which automation obviates the need for work, but Earth's limited resources reduce consumption. This is what Frase compares to …
FTSE Italia All-Shares Banks Sector Index (Green Line), January 2016 to December 5, 2016 Versus Germany’s Deutsche Bank (Orange Line)
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 5, 2016
Populist backlash, which has been running rampant on both sides of the Atlantic, just handed Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi his walking papers in a widely anticipated referendum vote. Renzi pushed for the referendum to reform the legislative system in Italy and said he would resign if it didn’t pass. Voters saw it as a power grab by Renzi and soundly defeated it with just under 60 percent voting against the measure. Under the terms of the referendum, Italy’s Senate would have shrunk from 315 members to 100 while the Senate’s right to hold a vote of no confidence in the government would have been severed.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi Casts His Vote in Italy’s Referendum, November 4, 2016
Much like Donald Trump’s appeal to the working class in America, Renzi took office in 2014 on an anti-establishment campaign. Ironically, or perhaps not, Renzi used the identical words as Trump, promising to clean out “the swamp.” The swamp in Italy includes the same cronyism, political pay-to-play and entrenched corruption that has Americans outraged and seeking drastic change from the status quo. Opposing voices who triumphed in yesterday’s referendum painted Renzi as too chummy with bankers and financiers, a narrative that is increasingly coming into sharp focus in Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointments.
Donald Trump’s Senior Counselor/Chief Strategist in the White House will be Steve Bannon, a previous Goldman Sachs banker and right-wing propaganda filmmaker. For one of the most powerful posts in government, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Trump has tapped a former 17-year veteran of Goldman Sachs, Steven Mnuchin. An heiress to a family worth more than $5 billion, Betsy DeVos, was tapped by Trump for Education Secretary while billionaire investor and corporate raider Wilbur Ross has been named by Trump as his nominee for Commerce Secretary.
Brent crude oil prices rose above $55 a barrel on Monday, trading at a fresh 16-month high, on rising prospects of a tightening market after OPEC members agreed on a landmark deal to cut production last week.
The euro shook off earlier losses and equities climbed as contagion from political turmoil in Italy was contained.
The common European currency climbed against the dollar, having earlier reached its weakest in 20 months as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi quit after losing a referendum he’d called to rein in the senate’s power.
The euro rebounded from 21-month lows on Monday, clawing back almost all the ground it had lost overnight after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi conceded defeat in a referendum on plans to reform the country's constitution and said he would resign.
Sean Dobson wanted to start a mortgage bank four years ago to serve borrowers with middling credit or irregular income. He eventually decided that growing regulatory hurdles and other costs would erase his returns.
Italy fell into political limbo after Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his resignation, with rival parties jockeying to fill the power vacuum following his crushing defeat in a constitutional referendum.
A 5 billion euro ($5.33 billion) rescue plan for Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI) hung by a thread on Monday after Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's defeat in a referendum tipped the country into political turmoil.
Investors are dangerously unprepared for a sharp rise in eurozone bond yields when US interest rates march higher and European quantitative easing ends, Axel Weber, chairman of UBS and the former head of the Bundesbank, has warned.
The jump in US rates could spark big jolts in the markets as the long spell of aggressive monetary easing across the globe has left many investors off-guard over a swing in the global rate cycle, he added.
“I don’t think we will have increasing divergence among the major central banks in the world for much longer,” Mr Weber said, predicting that Europe would follow the US with a rate rise by next September at the latest. “I think the ECB is closer to slowing its current quantitative easing programme than many in the market expect.”
Until now, the eurozone has not seen a similar swing in rates as short-term rates have stayed low — or even negative in some markets — while the ECB has been engaged in aggressive QE, including extensive bond purchases.
But Mr Weber predicted that the ECB would end its bond purchases sooner than many investors had assumed, sending the eurozone yield curve higher. “A large part of the market is uni-directionally positioned and it is positioned in a direction where you will have to take off some of those positions over the course of 2017,” he said.
Mr Weber also voiced support for Mr Trump’s plans to move away from only monetary stimulus toward more structural measures and fiscal stimulus, such as large-scale infrastructure projects. He aired concern that US companies with international operations could be negatively affected by the president-elect’s plans to alter trade agreements.
“Markets know how to price and discount market risk,” he said. “Markets are much less good at pricing political uncertainty . . . Our broad presence in continental Europe gives us optionality in case we need to move employees from London to onshore locations. Optionality is going to be the name of the game.”
I will not be shocked if the ECB tapers QE. It isn’t doing Europe a bit of good.
For most retail investors, buying physical crude oil as a commodity is not an option. Instead, many investors turn to exchange traded notes (ETNs) as a way to speculate on changes in oil prices themselves.
But direct oil investment products like USO have always been dicey as investment choices. More sophisticated investors with big Wall Street banks who have high speed tr...
By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.
David Hume was one of the most prominent of the Scottish Moral Philosophers. He is particularly famous as a philosophical skeptic, who, in his book, An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748), questioned whether man’s reason and reasoning ability could successfully apprehend reality with any complete degree of certainty. He also argued that reason followed men’s “passions,” rather than reason being a guide for or a check upon men’s emotions and desires.
Image source: The Blue Diamond GalleryDavid Hume
Hume is also famous for arguing that there is a distinct difference between factual or “positive” statements from ethical or “normative” stat...
“We look forward to working with the US Air Force on subsequent phases of the program allowing us to deliver the best plane for the president at the best value for the American taxpayer,” Boeing spokesman Todd Blecher says in e-mail.
“We are currently under contract for $170 million to help determine the cap...
European stocks were little changed, as a recent rotation out of so-called defensive sectors and into shares seen benefiting from economic growth eased. Utilities and real estate companies climbed with banks, while miners trimmed recent lofty gains.
Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!
Date: Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.
Beginning Time: 8:00 am Sunday morning
Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas
Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)
Summary Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
Dec 4th Italian Constitutional Referendum
Referendum Result; Market Reaction
Political Reaction; Opposition Party Reaction
Last Time Out Since the end of World War II, 71 years have passed during which, the "perfect" balance has resulted in 63 different Italian governments, or more often than most change shoes. Instead of being a real second legislative check, that balance is seemingly a weapon of mass distraction and instrument of political vetoes whi...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Some tools are used to measure inflation or lack of. Some look at the price of Crude Oil, Doc Copper or the Commodities Index (CRB) to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. Since 2011, most commodities have created a series of lower highs and lower lows and for many, it has been easier to make the case of deflation than inflation, is in play.
Below looks at another tool, that is often used to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. This tool we are referring too is the TIPS/TLT ratio-
The market needed a pause after the frenetic post election rally, and it finally arrived this week. The pullback was mild as bulls would like. This week’s “fear of the week” was Italy’s political referendum which happened today… and was rejected.
Italian voters were asked in a referendum to approve changes to the country’s constitution, which have been called the most sweeping since the end of World War II. The proposed reforms would cut the Senate’s size by two-thirds and reduce powers held by the country’s 20 regional governments. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi believes the changes will aid efficiency in parliament.
The reforms could also “make it easier to implement important legislation (such as measure...
Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.
The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...
There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.
Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer. One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."
Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.
Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.' Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color). Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...
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