Archive for the ‘Phil’s Favorites’ Category

Will Real Estate Investors Take Over Airbnb?

By Priceonomics.com as published at Zero Hedge

In 2012, Jon Wheatley bought a $40,000 apartment in Las Vegas so that he could rent it out on Airbnb.

“I was surprised by just how cheap real estate was in Las Vegas,” says the British-born Wheatley. “I didn’t want to live in Vegas, and I wasn’t planning on being there very much. So when I looked at Airbnb, it looked almost too good to be true.” 

Wheatley looked at the rates of similar apartments on Airbnb, and he decided that the apartment could pay for itself. He bought the flat and spent 3 weeks and $10,000 on furniture and renovations. After a year of remotely renting out the apartment, he says , he’d made $13,000 in profit. 

When we ask if he recommends doing this, he replies, “One hundred percent. The model definitely works.”

In only 8 years, Airbnb’s premise—to allow someone to host a business traveler in a spare bedroom, or a family to rent their apartment to tourists while they’re out of town—has made it a $25 billion company . Co-founder Brian Chesky often talks about how anyone can turn extra space in their home into an asset that helps them pay their rent.

But the economics of short term rental sites Airbnb and VRBO also appeal to people who do not live in the house or apartment they rent out. This includes go-getters like Wheatley, as well as professional real estate investors.

Outside the real estate scene, however, this development has not been met with a positive reaction. In cities like San Francisco and New York, where housing is a scarce, politicized resource, the prevalence of property owners renting out multiple apartments has inspired protests, critical press, and the attention of regulators and lawmakers.

  

Photo via Airbnb

What’s missing from the already fractious debate over Airbnb, however, is the fact that the big players in the real estate market aren’t involved. At least, they aren’t involved yet .

Companies like AvalonBay and Camden Property Trust own tens or hundreds of thousands of units, and


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NYT on Snowden: Right in 2014, Right Today

Courtesy of Mish.

I do not often agree with the New York Times editorial board. But when it comes to Edward Snowden, the editorial board took a correct position in 2014 and again today.

JAN. 1, 2014: Edward Snowden, Whistle-Blower.

Considering the enormous value of the information he has revealed, and the abuses he has exposed, Mr. Snowden deserves better than a life of permanent exile, fear and flight. He may have committed a crime to do so, but he has done his country a great service. It is time for the United States to offer Mr. Snowden a plea bargain or some form of clemency that would allow him to return home, face at least substantially reduced punishment in light of his role as a whistle-blower, and have the hope of a life advocating for greater privacy and far stronger oversight of the runaway intelligence community.

JAN. 18, 2017: President Obama’s Last Chance to Show Mercy

President Obama did the right thing in granting clemency to Chelsea Manning, who was sentenced to 35 years in prison for leaking huge amounts of classified information about American diplomatic and military activities in 2010. Ms. Manning, who has served nearly seven years, is to be released on May 17.

Of course, it was Mr. Obama’s overly aggressive Justice Department that sought, and in 2013 won, that absurdly long sentence in the first place. The average sentence for those convicted of leaking classified material is one to three years.

No similar mercy, so far, for Edward Snowden, the former intelligence contractor who leaked top-secret information about vast government surveillance programs and now lives as a fugitive in Russia. A White House official said the documents Mr. Snowden revealed were “far more serious and far more dangerous” than Ms. Manning’s. But like Ms. Manning, Mr. Snowden acted in the spirit of a whistle-blower. His disclosures led to significant debate and reforms. He should be offered at least a plea agreement that would allow him to return home.

At Least a Plea Bargain

@Snowden I would offer Snowden full clemency, give him a medal for bravery, then make Petraeus, McCain salute him. https://t.co/viOrF6DIqF

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) January 19, 2017

That describes how I best feel, but a plea bargain with no more than a one year sentence that counts time in exile would suffice.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Original article here.





Ideological Civil War in Davos: Dutch Premier Labels “Political Union a Dangerous Romantic Fantasy, Gone, Buried”

Courtesy of Mish.

European solidarity erupted in a full scale Ideological Civil War in Davos today as Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte called the EU’s dreams a “dangerous romantic fantasy”.

rutte-vs-schulz

“The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it’s buried,” said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

“The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate,” he said at the World Economic Forum.

His comments went to the heart of a fierce battle under way for control over the EU project, and provoked an impassioned counter-attack from Martin Schulz, the European Parliament’s president.

Mr Schulz called it profoundly misguided to give up the dream of political union and retreat to the nation state. “If it’s Angela Merkel, or Mark Rutte, or whoever else, they must have the courage to say that we need ever-closer union more than ever in the 21st century, and without it the EU has no future,” he said.

“We have some members sitting inside the European Parliament trying to destroy the EU from within. They are drawing EU salaries, and one of them is running for the presidency of France,” he said.

Professor Hans-Werner Muller from Princeton University said the EU was unlikely to disintegrate in any formal sense but there was a real risk that it will instead dissolve from within. “We will still have the Treaties, but they will not be observed,” he said.

He accused Hungary and Poland of acting like rogue states inside the EU, abusing the rule of the law with a “brutality” not seen in democratic Europe since the Second World War. “For them it is even better than Brexit. They get all the money, but they don’t obey the rules. If the EU does not do anything about it, trust is going to break down,” he said.

Italy’s finance minister Carlo Pier Padoan has repeatedly blamed the EU authorities for pushing Italy into a banking crisis that could easily have been avoided. “The problem with Europe, is Europe,” he told Davos earlier this week.

Emma Marcegaglia, head of the pan-EU federation BusinessEurope, told the Telegraph that it sticks in the craw to hear some countries talk about EU rules. Germany has been running a


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Drunken Alex Jones Goes On Air, Discusses Dinosaurs, Makes Fool of Himself

Courtesy of Mish

“Info Wars” host Alex Jones went on the air, incoherent, totally drunk, and burping. His site was among those deemed to provide “fake news”, a generally accurate assessment. The following video is painful to watch.
 

It does not help your cause to look this way. Why would his team put this out?

[Original article here]





Investment Bank Analysts Are Clueless and Incompetent (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss why Investment Bank Analysts should never be listened to regarding any stock recommendations from the buy or sell side perspective, they join the long list of incompetency that is anybody still working at an I-Bank these days. The XOM Stock Downgrade is just a little late, about a month behind the market!





PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 01-18-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:46 Checking on the Markets
00:03:32 Trade Ideas and Tips
00:06:34 Accuweather
00:08:59 Natural Gas Charts
00:13:08 PG in the Butterfly Portfolio
00:15:15 PG Charts
00:17:45 PG Trade Ideas
00:26:50 September Portfolio Review
00:29:11 PSO
00:34:05 PSO Trade Ideas
00:36:04 RRD Chart
00:41:06 PSO Charts
00:41:34 NFLX
00:49:30 Butterfly Portfolio
00:50:40 TGT
00:54:20 Target Earnings
00:56:36 TGT Charts
00:58:36 Checking on the Markets
00:59:22 Beige Book
01:16:05 Active Trader
01:17:23 5% Portfolio
01:19:30 SPWR
01:20:38 AAPL
01:31:28 XLF
01:33:20 5% Portfolio
01:35:34 Butterfly Portfolio
01:38:20 Long Term Portfolio
01:42:43 Checking on the Markets
01:51:40 More Trade Ideas

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Multi-Family Housing Starts Jump 57%, Single-Family Starts Decline 4%: What’s Going On?

Courtesy of Mish.

For the fourth consecutive month, housing stats provided a wild ride. For December, starts rose 11.3%, but that was thanks to a 57% jump in multi-family.

Mortgage News Daily reports Construction Starts Bounce Back, Permits Remain Constrained.

Housing starts continued their see-saw pattern in December, rising 11.3 percent from November when they had fallen significantly after a sensational October. The increase this time, however, was due solely to a surge in multi-family construction. Meanwhile, housing permits turned in another lackluster performance.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that residential housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,226,000 in December, up from a revised rate of 1,102,000 in November. The November estimate was originally reported at a rate of 1,090,000. The December estimate put housing starts up 5.7 percent from the level in December 2015.

Single-family housing starts were at a rate of 795,000, a decline of 4.0 percent from the November figure of 828,000 and 3.9 percent higher than a year earlier. There was an increase of 53.9 percent in unit starts in buildings with five or more units, to an annual rate of 417,000 compared to 271,000 in November. Multi-family starts are running 10.3 percent ahead of the December 2015 level.

Starts vs. Permits

starts-vs-permits

Although it takes a permit to do a start, potential long delays between the two makes speculation over permits risky.

I discount permits in favor of starts as the latter takes a commitment from an owner while the former reflects builder optimism.

Single Family Starts

housing-starts-2017-01-19

The above chart puts a much-needed perspective on mainstream media and realtor cheerleading.


Continue reading here…





Mario Draghi is Mistaken – European Debt is Unsustainable (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss the European Debt Sustainability issue in this video, and why we believe the European Union breaks up within 5 years. The main tools governments have been incorporating is Relative Currency Devaluation along with Relative Money Printing, all of which are hard to pull off with a Standardized Centralized Approach which is the European Union. We believe all European Banks are Insolvent Right Now, They Just Don`t Know It!

When you factor in what these banks hold on their balance sheets, versus what the correct Mark to Market prices for these assets will be over the next five years; there isn`t enough money to bail these banks out in the European Union. Major haircuts are coming for European Assets, and in Fact lots of Assets across the developed Financial Landscape.

When Markets are in Bubbles, they usually are there through artificial means, just like the credit bubble of 2007, things looking real good should scare the hell out of investors. Ask yourself why things are looking so good? And at what costs to financial stability? In fact six months before the entire Global Financial Market crash in the second half of 2007, markets were at all-time highs, and everything looked rosy. Financial Markets couldn`t have been more mispriced, and wrong about correctly pricing in the appropriate risk. I can tell you that nothing that is going on right now is "Sustainable"!





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil, Snow and Saudi Billions: Secret Davos Gets Down to Business (Bloomberg)

Nothing sharpens the mind of Davos delegates more than the prospect of striking big deals — and after a day of debating globalization and its discontents it was time to go for the biggest one of all.

Oil Gains as U.S. Stockpiles Fall While IEA Sees OPEC Cutting (Bloomberg)

Oil recovered after the biggest drop in more than a week as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles declined, while OPEC and other producing nations trim output to ease a global glut.

Kuwait’s World-Beating Stock Rally May Just Be Getting Started (Bloomberg)

Kuwaiti stocks have started the year with a charge, performing better than any other market in the world in January. Investors expect the positive momentum to continue.

Inflation-Adjusted Rates in Britain for Five Years and Beyond May have Fallen too Much: Analysis (Bloomberg)

Inflation-adjusted rates in Britain may try to reverse course after diving deep into the negative zone following Brexit, Bloomberg strategist Tanvir Sandhu writes.

India May Be a Bright Spot for Global Solar Markets This Year (Bloomberg)

India may be a bright spot for global solar markets this year as it adds capacity at a record pace, becoming one of the top regions for panel producers struggling with rock-bottom prices.

ECB Keeps Stimulus on High Even as Economy Picks Up (Associated Press)

President Mario Draghi has some explaining to do — about why the European Central Bank is leaving its stimulus programs running nearly full blast while inflation and growth are picking up.

Here's a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about right now (Business Insider)

Dave Lutz, the head of exchange-traded funds at JonesTrading, has a quick overview of what's going on in markets on Thursday. 

ECB Said to Lack Agreement on How to Buy Debt Below Deposit Rate (Bloomberg)

Euro-area central banks still lack a formal agreement on the procedures for buying the lowest-yielding bonds under quantitative easing, according to people familiar with the matter.

China’s
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Obama’s Perpetual Farewell Tour

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Hopeless -- Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (Book Jacket photo)The man who was compared to a Messiah when he won the presidential election in 2008 has been on an excruciatingly long goodbye tour. First there was his farewell speech to the United Nations in September. Next came his farewell tour across Europe in November – the Messiah’s last foreign trip. Then there was his farewell speech in the U.S. Yesterday, there was a tortuously vacuous farewell press conference, which toward the end, had the feeling that actors from central casting had replaced real journalists in the press room in order to memorialize the greatness of this President.

Whenever I think about this President, I think of Bruce Dixon, the Managing Editor of the Black Agenda Report in 2008 during Obama’s first presidential campaign. The Black Agenda Report writes for black Americans. Dixon wrote the following in February 2008:

“Whether it is truly possible to hold elected officials accountable in a political system where big money, big media, big corporations and the very rich call all the  shots is uncertain.  But we have tried and will keep trying.  So will others.  The stakes are too high not to…

“The 2008 Obama presidential run may be the most slickly orchestrated marketing machine in memory. That’s not a good thing. Marketing is not even distantly related to democracy or civic empowerment. Marketing is about creating emotional, even irrational bonds between your product and your target audience. From its Bloody Sunday 2007 proclamation that Obama was the second coming of Joshua to its nationally televised kickoff at Abe Lincoln’s tomb to the tens of millions of dollars in breathless free media coverage lavished on it by the establishment media, the campaign’s deft manipulation of hopeful themes and emotionally potent symbols has led many to impute their own cherished views to Obama, whether he endorses them or not.”

We were also not among the converted as a result of spending months conducting a forensic examination of Obama’s campaign accounts. In May of 2008, we wrote the following:

“The Wall Street plan for the Obama-bubble presidency is that of the cleanup crew for the housing bubble: sweep all the corruption and losses, would-be indictments, perp walks and prosecutions under the rug and get on with an unprecedented…
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Phil's Favorites

Another Day One Action: White House Climate Change Web Page Disappears

Courtesy of Mish.

Donald Trump is following through on his pledge to act quickly. In yet another day one action, White House Climate Change Webpage Disappears After Trump’s Inauguration.

Less than an hour after President Trump took the oath of office on Friday, the White House’s webpage on climate change disappeared, the latest sign that the new administration will divert resources – and attention – from the issue.

The removal of the page from the White House’s website came around the same time the site and other Executive Branch digital platforms were overhauled to reflect the new administration.

Trump has l...



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Zero Hedge

Gold Pops; Banks, Bonds, & Greenback Drop As Trump Takes Office

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Quite a week... this seemed appropriate...

Gold remains 2017's big winner with bonds and stocks close to unch...

Trump's actual swearing in (and speech) sparked a notable drop in stocks and pop in VIX...But in a desperat attempt to keep The Dow green, VIX was monkey-hammered

But VIX ended the we...



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ValueWalk

RT News In Hot Water: Reporter Covering Protests Of Trump's Inauguration Arrested

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

RT News found itself in the headlines earlier this week when Facebook slapped restrictions on its account and Twitter tool Dataminr denied it service. Now one of its reporters is behind bars after being arrested while covering the protests at President Donald Trump’s inauguration earlier today.

RT News reporter caught in the fray

RT America reporter Alexander Rubinstein was arrested in Washington, D.C. near McPherson Square at the corner of 12th and L St. NW, where he happened to be in a crowd of protesters at the time police officers encircled a group of them. According to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil and Trump: Russians full of optimism in Davos (Reuters)

Twelve months ago, the mood of the Russian delegation at the World Economic Forum in Davos was distinctly gloomy, with oil prices near 12-year lows below $30 per barrel and Western sanctions depressing their economy and financial markets.

The Mortgage Market’s $1 Trillion Pocket of Worry (The Wall Street Journal)

Bonds backed by certain risky single-family mortgages topped $1 trillion for the first time in November, crossing that threshold amid rising warnings for one corner of the housing market.

...



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Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,


The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>