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Weekly Wrap-Up

Well, that was a lot of work to gain 200 points wasn’t it?

That’s right, we started this week on Monday morning at 11,985 so all that whining and moaning about the markets was for nothing!  The markets are fine, we had a pullback which may already be over.

The Democrats failed to bring about the predicted economic apocalypse as once again this great democracy can have a revolution every decade or so and treat it like an ordinary changing of the guard.

Sure the Dems will send money flying out of some sectors (Pharma, Oil, Defense) but it will boost others(Biotech, Travel, Retail) so it’s just a bit of a forced sector rotation more than a problem in the markets.

The Dow pulled it out at the last minute with a sudden surge over the critical 12,100 mark to finish right about at Monday’s high.

The Dow was pulled down today by AA (down 1.7%), DIS (down 3.5%), T (don 1%) and VZ (down 1.4%).  The standout performance came from AIG (2.4%) with BA (as usual), CAT, HON, HPQ, INTC and JPM providing backup.

I have come to the conclusion that we shouldn’t be shorting any gaming stocks as Nevada’s Harry Reid will be the new Senate majority leader – I missed that one but it would have been a smart play this week!

The S&P was slightly better behaved for the week, never really giving back Monday’s gains and finishing at 1,381.

The NYSE also had a very good week with 2 short bounces off the 8.800 level but never any real danger.

The Nasdaq was the standout of the week with a 2% gain and a 2,390 finish, the highest weekly close since Feb 2001!

We were watching the Russell which ran up to 769 and the SOX which managed a 1% gain for the day as well as the transports, which shot up 2% today on a sharp rebound off the 200 dma we’ve been watching all week.

Oil dove back down $1.57 to finish the week at $59.59 but you wouldn’t know it from XOM, who skated along at their all-time high.  My current thinking on this is that the E&P companies are suffering first as the analysts have decided the Dems will cut the tax breaks, which will increase the value of reserves.

This is all very logical sounding until…
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October Wrap-Up

Test 

Well we pulled that month out at the end!

It was a bumpy ride into options expiration with a 24% loss for the week (damn oil puts!) eating into the 53% we had made in the first half of the month but the last 10 days were decidedly kinder to us and we close out October in pretty good shape.

While still a far cry from September’s 92% average, I must again point out that I did say at the time we should just quit there because it would be very hard to top!

October’s final tally was 141 closed positions held an average of 9 days for a 41% average gain – more in line with a usual month.

Our remaining 36 positions have been open an average of 15 days with a 7% gain.  Of course, like some of our closed positions, they include the wrong ends of spreads and several hopeless oil positions that drag down an otherwise decent group.

The closed positions still include the total losses of 4 MS and GS positions that tormented me since September as well as 10 oil positions that were rolled into December but are recorded here as a loss.

There were 24 doubles including, surprisingly, 5 XOM puts and 3 Valero puts – all from earlier in the month when things still made sense in the oil patch.

All but 8 of our doubles were puts, so I suppose my early month pessimism wasn’t entirely unfounded…

Our best non-oil plays were a PD put, TAP put, GM put, TM call, GCI call, LPL call and the last of our Google calls.

Our worst plays were oil – we should have quit while we were so far ahead!  Not following the Valero Rule led to virtually every one of these losses and I will try really hard not to try to outsmart it in the future.

I have very few regrets, unlike September – where we would have done well to hold on to many of our plays – October was a choppier month that took profits away as fast as it gave them.

Our 32 regular stock positions returned 12% on an average hold of 26 days with just 13 positions remaining open – not bad for “an options guy…

The full spreadsheet will be posted tomorrow at:

http://www.clinamengroup.com/philstocks/




 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Europeans Betting Millions That Facebook Will Plunge Another 30% By December

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While US banks have been busy refocusing their "creative financial products"-time over the past two months, instead defending against allegations of muppetism, or explaining how hedging is really betting it all on red, and then doubling down (just because the casino supposedly has the bank's back), Europe has been busy coming up with new and creative ways of betting on the demise of FaceBook. While official shorting of the most overhyped and overvalued company in history only became a reality for most investors today, Europe's banks h...



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Chart School

The ''Real'' Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Orders

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Earlier this morning I posted an update on the May Advance Report on April Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let's now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau's monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today's dollar value. This gives us the "real" durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer a quite sobering corrective to the standard reports on the nominal monthly data (which itself was significantly below expectations).

...

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Insider Scoop

New York Stock Exchange Spokesperson Says There Have Been No Discussions with Facebook About Switching

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Rich Adamonis, NYSE (NYSE: NYX) spokesperson told Benzinga "In response to incorrect reports re: NYX and Facebook (NDAQ: FB): There have been no discussions with Facebook regarding switching their listing in light of the events of the last week, nor do we think a discussion along those lines would be appropriate at this time.”

document.write("") (c) 2012 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, ...

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Phil's Favorites

The E.U., Neofeudalism And The Neocolonial-Financialization Model

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The E.U., Neofeudalism And The Neocolonial-Financialization Model

To fully understand the Eurozone's financial-debt crisis, we must dig through the artifice, obfuscation and propaganda to the real dynamics of Europe's "new feudalism," the Neocolonial-Financialization Model.

Forget "austerity"and political theater--the only way to truly comprehend the Eurozone is to understand the Neocolonial-Financialization Model, as that's the key dynamic of the Eurozone.

In the old model of Colonialism, the colonizing power conquered or co-opted the Power Elites of the region, and proceeded to exploit the new colony's resources and labor to enrich the "center," i.e. the home empire.

In Neocolonialism, the forces of financialization (debt and leverage co...



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Market Montage

Chinese, European Data Continues to Weaken as Market Potentially Forming New Bear Flag

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

First we'll go to the technicals.  Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming]  But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs.  This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market.  Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New “Grecian Formula” is making us all gray

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.

Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that this new “Grecian Formula” is creating the opposite effect to the men’s hair product, i.e.., rather than losing the gray we are al...



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ETF Selector

Markets Die Then Flatten…Again (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, FB)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit

Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro.  Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.

So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...



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Option Review

AT&T Weekly Puts In Play

 

Today’s tickers: T, FXE & OI

T - AT&T, Inc. – U.S. equities are on the decline as Europe’s woes once again take center stage. Shares in AT&T, down 0.90% at $33.24 this afternoon, are faring better than most of the other Dow components so far, though options activity on the wireless carrier suggests some strategists are bracing for further declines ahead of the long w...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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