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  1. craigsa620

    One more Ronald Wayne fun fact, in the early '90's he sold the original Apple contract signed by him, Jobs, and Wozniak for $500. In 2011 it was sold for $1.6 million. This guy has the market on bad days if you ask me. 







The 3 Economic Stories of 2015

 

The 3 Economic Stories of 2015

Courtesy of 

JESSICA DESVARIEUX, PRODUCER, TRNN: Welcome to the Real News Network. I’m Jessica Desvarieux in Baltimore. And welcome to this edition of the Hudson Report. Now joining us is MichaelHudson. He’s an economics professor at the University of Missouri Kansas City, and he has a new book out titled Killing the Host. Thank you so much for joining us, Michael.

MICHAEL HUDSON: It’s good to be here, Jessica. Since we last talked I’ve also been appointed a professor at Peking University in Beijing.

DESVARIEUX: Awesome. Congratulations. So Michael, let’s get right into it and talk about the big stories of 2015, economic stories, I should say. What would you say are thethree most important stories that people should be aware of?

HUDSON: Well, the leading story is that the economy has not recovered. That the 1 percent have recovered, but the 99 percent have not recovered. And there is no sign of recovery, or even any sign that the presidential candidates running in next year’s election are trying to do anything.

The next story is that the 1 percent have recovered. I’m told that the largest sustained gains in any kind of asset have been number one Andy Warhol paintings, and number two, Stradivarius violins. These are trophies for the rich. They’re going way up while wages are not going up and consumer prices are not going up.

And the third story would be international, that the United States has changed the rules of the International Monetary Fund. Essentially, the U.S. has dragged Europe into an economic war against Russia, China, and the BRICS.

DESVARIEUX: Can you be more specific about that last story? How are they doing that?

HUDSON: Well, earlier this month the International Monetary Fund changed its rules that it had had since 1945. The whole international financial system since 1945 was based on the fact that governments when they’re bailed out, or when they borrow from other governments, they have to repay their debts, and that the IMF is going to bring leverage to make sure that the international, intergovernmental finance system remains intact by saying it’s not


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Elon MuskWall Street has finally learned an important lesson about Tesla (Business Insider)

The past month has been horrific for Tesla's shareholders.

After hitting $240 on the last day of 2015, shares have lost one-third of their value. Something close to $10 billion in market cap has been erased.

The World's Biggest Wealth Fund Is Unhappy With Volkswagen's Leadership (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund criticized Volkswagen AG’s ownership structure, saying it concentrates too much power with the Porsche-Piech family and puts minority shareholders at a disadvantage amid the carmaker’s emissions crisis.

Fining Bankers, Not Shareholders, for Banks’ Misconduct (NY Times)

Ho-hum, another week, another multimillion-dollar settlement between regulators and a behemoth bank acting badly.

The most recent version involves two such financial institutions, Barclaysand Credit Suisse. They agreed last Sunday to pay $154.3 million after regulators contended that their stock trading platforms, advertised as places where investors would not be preyed on by high-frequency traders, were actually precisely the opposite. 

China money YuanChina is buying up companies around the world at a record rate — and it's great news for Wall Street (Business Insider)

Chinese companies have been acquiring foreign companies at an unprecedented rate, and we're likely to see a lot more of it this year.

Germany's Bonds Seen Running Out of Reasons to Rally Next Week (Bloomberg)

The stellar performance in German government bonds over the past few weeks may finally run out of steam.

hot air balloonThese are the hedge fund strategies everyone wants in on (Business Insider)

Investors have piled into a select few hedge fund strategies lately.

Barclays' capital solutions group analyzed how hedge funds' assets under management have grown in the last two years.

Barclays surveyed 110 funds, collectively managing around $375 billion in assets.

Trading Performance: Getting To That Next Level (Trader Feed)

I recently spoke with the traders at SMB and shared a few


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Volatility in Tech Shares Drags Market Lower (NY Times)

Stocks posted steep losses Friday, ending the week with broad declines after a report showing that job creation in the United States slowed last month.

Tesla is getting crushed — again (Business Insider)

Tesla shares are down 9%, to $160, as we head into the end of the trading session on Friday.

TSLA Chart 2/5/16 2

Another Sign of Rough Sledding Ahead: Dividend Cuts Surpass 2008 (Bloomberg)

Tightening credit puts pressure on companies to scale back payouts.

Muni bond funds providing shelter from global market mayhem (Investment News)

While the global financial markets have seemingly settled in for a fresh bout of volatility, municipal bond funds have remained relatively non-correlated to the turbulence infecting virtually every other investment category.

Inside the overall muni bond fund category, none of the 16 muni bond fund sub-categories, whether single-state or national, has a negative performance number for any period from one month to five years, annualized.

Investors dump stocks, scoop up bonds for 5th straight week (Market Watch)

Investors have been eschewing equities in favor of the perceived safety of bonds since the beginning of the year, as stock markets have taken a beating and oil prices have cratered.

Get Ready for 'iPhone Bonds' in U.S. ABS Market, Moody's Says (Bloomberg)

Your smart phone will be soon bundled into a bond.

American wireless carriers are likely to start issuing asset-backed bonds that are supported by customer payments on Apple Inc.’s iPhones and other equipment, according to a report published Friday by Moody’s Investors Service. Carriers are now increasingly selling phones through installment-plan financing that in many cases offer zero-interest rates.

The Case For A Bear Market In US Stocks Growls On (Capital Spectator)

What does a bear market for the US equity market look like? Current conditions seem to fit the bill.


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Comment by tommyt

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  1. tommyt

    the pivot points on tos just don't have enuf support lines today we need an s3 and maybe an s4 if it gets worse







Comment by tommyt

View Single Comment

  1. tommyt

    the pivot points on tos just don't have enuf support lines today we need an s3 and maybe an s4 if it gets worse







Global Shipping Rates Run Dry

 

Global Shipping Rates Run Dry

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

image

A key index of global shipping prices is nearly 50% below its previous record low level.

We swore we wouldn’t devote any more Charts Of The Day to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) after it broke its all-time low in November. Things are really getting out of hand now, though, so it deserves at least a mention. The previous record low in the BDI was 553, set back in 1986. Upon breaking that low in November, the BDI continued to crater. As of today, the Baltic Dry Index is listed at 303.00 – nearly a full 50% below its previous all-time low.

 

image

 

So what is the Baltic Dry Index? The BDI is a composite of various global shipping rates tied to the movement of raw materials. Why is it important? It can serve as a barometer of the global trade environment, as well as a measure of inflation based on global trade. If that is the case, the trade environment would appear downright dismal.

Now, of course much of the input into the BDI comes from the price of raw materials. Considering the deflationary spiral in commodities, the drop in the BDI to all-time lows shouldn’t be a shock. However, the depths that the index is now plumbing is quite alarming and suggests trouble in the global trade picture.

It would also suggest perhaps that the deflationary pressure is not just a supply issue. Consider every prior drop in the Baltic Dry Index down to the 500-600 level. Each time, the index immediately jumped as if latent demand was just waiting for those lower prices. That development has not yet occurred this time around, even as prices are reaching 45% below the previous record low.

The Baltic Dry Index has become a trendy thing to mention in recent years when discussing global market and economic conditions. The truth is, nobody really ever knows for sure what the broader message is behind the index’s behavior. That said, this recent plunge is making it quite difficult to conceive that it means anything positive in terms of the global


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January Jobs Picture Defies Recession Chatter

Today's Disconnect: Market indexes are experiencing total "Bloodbathery," while the jobs picture doesn't look all that bad.  

January Jobs Picture Defies Recession Chatter

Courtesy of 

If there is to be an imminent recession, then jobs are an even more lagging indicator than ever.

Because this morning’s non-farm payroll report showed a continuation of two important trends: wages are rising and participation in the labor force is growing as workers come off the sidelines.

4.9% headline unemployment combined with rising average hourly earnings (2.5% growth this month) will do that. A tighter employment situation should lead to greater participation and higher pay. The mechanism is functioning.

Here are the details, via Wall Street Journal’s live blog.

As for market reaction, who the f*** knows. I’ve lost track of whether good news was bad or good at this point.

Anyone who tells you they know how the dollar, the 10-year yield or the S&P 500 are going to zig or zag off a jobs report these days is just making it up.





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Tech-stock wreck destroys $514B this year (USA Today)

The bad year for stocks is getting worse by the minute – and tech investors are feeling the brunt of the pain.

The 462 information technology stocks in the broadRussell 3000 index have shredded a total of $514 billion this year thanks to their average decline of 13.4%, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S&P Capital IQ.

Citi: 'We Should All Fear Oilmageddon' (Bloomberg)

A feedback loop of the U.S. dollar, crude, capital flows, and emerging markets.

pla screamsThe world's biggest steel maker just lost $7.9 billion (Business Insider)

Another day, another two scalps for the commodity price crash.

Two huge resources firms reported results on Friday, and you can add both to the pile of giants getting crushed by the falling price of raw materials.

ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, and BG Group, the FTSE 100-listed oil giant, both took big hits last year, according to financial results released on Friday morning.

European stocks becalmed as investors await U.S. jobs report (Market Watch)

Stocks across Europe sought firm direction Friday, as investors waited for the high-profile monthly U.S. jobs report and faced the prospect of a losing week for European equities.

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% to 329.05, but has been darting in and out of positive territory throughout the session. For the week, however, the index looked solidly in the red, as it is poised to drop 3.6%. That would break two previous weeks of gains.

China's Foreign Reserves Poised for Record Drop on Yuan Defense (Bloomberg)

China's foreign-exchange reserves, already at a three-year low, are poised to post a second consecutive record monthly drop as policy makers intervene to support the yuan.

China cracks down on illegal GM crops ahead of Syngenta deal (Business Insider)

Chinese officials have issued warnings to seed dealers and farmers not to use unapproved genetically modified seeds in the country's main crop belt, shortly after


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S&P 500 Earnings Outlook: Gross

 

S&P 500 Earnings Outlook: Gross

Courtesy of Joshua Brown

Savita Subramanian’s Equity & Quant Strategy group at BAML looks at the earnings outlook trend for the S&P 500. On a monthly basis, the trend in downward revisions is the worst they’ve seen since March of 2009.

In January, the three-month earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) fell for the fifth consecutive month to 0.49 from 0.53 — its lowest level in ten months. This remains below the long-term average of 0.84, and indicates twice as many cuts as increases to earnings estimates. The more volatile one-month ratio fell to 0.35 from 0.54, the worst since March 2009.

And before you jump up on your desk and scream “IT’S BECAUSE OF ENERGY!” you should keep in mind that estimates are being revised downward for all ten sectorsover the last 3 months, not just oil companies:

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 7.22.52 AM

Josh here – Two ways to think about this – positively speaking, lowered estimates means an easier number for companies to beat when they report throughout 2016. Negatively speaking, if the downward revisions are met, and then capped off by even lower estimates and outlooks, the current multiple on the market is at risk, regardless of where interest rates are. According to Subramanian, more than twice as many companies have had earnings revised downward than revised upward for the 3 month period. As for full-year 2016, EPS guidance for the S&P 500 as a whole is already down 3% since the first day of the year.

Source:

The Cuts Get Deeper 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch – January 29th 2016





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

They Broke the Silver Fix

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Monetary Metals.

Last Thursday, January 28, there was a flash crash on the price chart for silver. Here is a graph of the price action.


   The Price of Silver, Jan 28 (All times GMT)

If you read more about it, you will see that there was an irregularity around the silver fix. At the time, the spot price was around $14.40. The fix was set at $13.58. This is a major deviation.

Many silver bugs are up in arms about how unfair the new silver fix is. That’s nothing new. They were up in arms about the old one. The old one was supposedly manipulated

One thing is for sure, tactical manipulations can occur. A gold trader in London was ...



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Phil's Favorites

Invest with a Telescope...Not a Microscope

 

Invest with a Telescope…Not a Microscope

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

 

It was another bloody week in the stock market (S&P 500 index dropped -3.1%), and any half-glass full data was interpreted as half-empty. The week was epitomized by a Citigroup report entitled “World Economy Trapped in a Death Spiral.” A sluggish monthly jobs report on Friday, which registered a less than anticipated addition of 151,000 jobs, painted a we...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Let’s Talk About the US Government’s Interest Burden (Pragcap)

Greg Ip had a piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday discussing the debt burden in the USA and how low interest rates have “moved back” the “hands on the doomsday debt clock”.  The article touches on the important topic of entitlement spending and whether it’s sustainable, but does so in a manner that misleads readers about why this might be a problem.

For instance, Ip says that “higher federal borrowing puts upward pressure on interest rates”.  This is classic “crowding out”,...



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Chart School

Sellers Start Day, Buyers Finish It

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech averages had the weakest start, Powerful gap downs had set things off, but buyers were able to make a comeback into the close. However, morning gaps remain. Volume climbed to register as distribution, which for the Nasdaq was the second day of distribution in a row.


The Nasdaq 100 is on the fiftth day of selling in a row. The August swing low wasn't fully tested. Bulls will be looking for a bullish 'morning star' where today's candlestick 'hammer' is followed by an opening gap, then a rally for the rest of the day. Should this emerge, then a move to test 4,300 is next. If there is a weak open, then any chance for a bullish 'hammer' based on today's action is signifi...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs and S&P 500 break 5-year channels at “Same Time!”

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

S&P 500 has created a series of higher lows and higher highs for the past 5-years! Some would define this as a bull market.

Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows, for the past 5-years! Some would define this as a bear market.

Hey friends check this out; It appears the S&P is breaking 5-year support and the Gold Bugs index is breaking resistance, at the SAME TIME.

“Super Trends” coming to an end?  The Power of the Patterns sugge...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Insider Scoop

Buckingham Sees 36% Upside in Virgin America

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related VA Vetr Top Raters Downgrade Spirit Airlines And Virgin America, Still Like Stocks Airlines Could Fall 30% In A Recession Virgin America -5% as sentiment sours (Seeking Alpha)

Buckingham Research slashed its price target and fourth-quarter earnings outlook Virgin America Inc (NASDAQ: ...



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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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