by phil - November 20th, 2014 8:18 am
This low-volume rally is a joke.
As I pointed out to our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room, volume on the up side of that v-shaped recovery has been 1/2 of what the volume to the downside was (comparing the last 3 weeks to the 3 before it), which means this "rally" is nothing but hot air – with very little support underneath.
And I know you get tired of hearing me say it and I get tired of saying it but, one thing I learned in 2008 is that you can't warn people often enough to be more cautious. Yes we lose subscribers when we go to cash (not much to trade) but, when the markets do pull back – my subscribers still have money!
And it's not like we can't make money with our cash. Just yesterday, we posted 7 bullish trade ideas for our Members, 3 of which we added to our virtual portfolios and one of which, a long on /SI at $16, made $2,500 per contract in 30 minutes and another $1,500 per contract this morning – that's not a bad way to sit on the sidelines, is it?
We don't ALWAYS have to be invested. We still have many long-term positions, it's just that we also have a lot of cash in case those long-term positions get cheaper and we decide to buy more. In fact, a few of yesterday's plays were just that – buying more of stocks that we've been liking all year as they go on sale.
This morning our Futures are at 17,600 on /YM, 2,040 on /ES, 4,200 on /NQ and 1,155 on /TF and we can go long on the laggard when (and IF) two of them are over and get out when 3 are below as a bullish play for the normal morning pump – that's how we make a quick $500 for you at Philstockworld!
Copper is bouncing off $3 again, that's also a good play, one that already made $1,250 per contract at $3.05 when I recommended it in Tuesday morning's post (which you can have delivered to you each morning by SUBSCRIBING HERE).
by Market Shadows - November 19th, 2014 5:00 pm
After a disappointing quarter and some probable tax-selling, EZchip might be a good turnaround for next year.
So I'm thinking we'll sell a stock or two out of Paul's otherwise neglected Virtual Portfolio (check back) and add EZCH.
EZchip is a profitable technology company that is investing in future products, with no debt and $7.63 cash per share. For investors, I think the most important questions are whether (1) the possible tax selling will ever end, (2) the company will grow, and (3) are you willing to wait out the slump while new products get introduced next year?
Look at that chart below. How low do you think EZCH will go? (It has the falling knife look to it, doesn't it?)
Disclaimer: I do not offer investment advice or make any representations as to my knowledge regarding the truth of what I read on Yahoo finance. I am completely unqualified to give recommendations, suggestions, opinions, and anything else that might seem like a smart idea. Do your own research.
If you haven't read the website in the last few months, please note, Paul's virtual put selling portfolio is ending, and we will not be pretend-selling any puts.
by ilene - November 19th, 2014 2:33 pm
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown
“The democratization of those types of benefits allow people to have more flexible ways to make a living. They don’t have to be working for The Man.”
I had an Uber driver tell me yesterday that the service has completely changed his life for the better. He drove a cab for 24 years and was afraid to ever give it up because of all the security that went with working for the company that held the medallion.
He’s been wiping vomit out of his backseat for decades and dealing with the worst humanity has to offer – drunks, violent people, pigs who leave trash in his car, ride thieves who jump out at red lights, etc. And working for other people, horrible people who would take advantage of him at any juncture – just because they knew he had no way to stop them.
Now he deals with customers who actually have a stake in being on their best behavior and he has never been happier. He gets to drive a clean vehicle and interact with conscientious passengers. Best of all, there’s no haggling and tips are included – automatically. The nasty friction of being a cabbie for hire is gone and in its place is a professional work situation.
In the quote above, Uber founder and CEO Travis Kalanick explains how Obamacare has helped make this all possible.
For all it’s flaws (and there are plenty), one thing that single-payer insurance does is it lets people cut the umbilical cord with bad work situations or become more entrepreneurial without the threat of having to drop out of society.
by phil - November 19th, 2014 8:30 am
Why not? Why not 3,000? 3,500? 4,000? Is there any number that will begin to sound ridiculous to top 1% traders, who are using the Fed's Free Money to make even more money for themselves? It's like the $50M balloon dog at Christies – what's the difference to people who have, essentially, infinite amounts of money to spend?
The Forbes 400, for example, made $1Tn MORE between 2009 and 2012 – an average of $300Bn a year. Last year, they added on another $400Bn bringing their total INCOME up to an average of $1,000,000,000 PER YEAR per Billionaire. Compared to the average household income of the average US Citizen of $52,000, that is, pretty much, INFINITELY more (19,230 times more, to be exact).
Meanwhile, over the same period of rampant QE, the average income of the Median Household FELL 4%, from $54,000 to $52,000.
Of course, that should be obvious, as it takes $2,000 from 150M working people just to come up with $300Bn of the $400Bn the top 400 made last year. That's how it works, folks – they take $2,000 from 150M people and the rich get richer and the poor (or the middle class) get poorer.
Yes, there is also some economic expansion – there has to be or where did the other $100Bn come from? No wonder record amounts of money (a mere $2Bn) were spent on the recent mid-term elections – in order to guarantee the top 1% that they'd get at least 2 more years of the same treatment.
And what do the top 0.0001% do with their money? Over $1Bn more pours in every day – they can't possibly spend it all on balloon dogs and $5,000 hamburgers – they HAVE to invest some of it!
Real estate left a bad taste in people's mouth very recently and, as noted by the chart below, there's not enough homes in the US for all these Billionaires to buy. Gold and silver have lost their shine, oil is a bust, bonds aren't paying any interest (also thanks to Fed meddling), so that makes equities the only…
by ilene - November 19th, 2014 3:21 am
Nokia sold its phone-making division to Microsoft earlier this year after a long time of playing dead. Nathaniel Mott doesn't hold back in describing Nokia's unimpressive period: ;"it was hard not to look at the company’s shambling corpse and feel the same kind of disgust one feels when a particularly gruesome zombie shows up on 'The Walking Dead.'” Can't get much uglier than that. With such low expectations, and a chance of rebirth, will Nokia recreate itself?
By NATHANIEL MOTT at Pando
Nokia might not be as dead as we thought.
The company has announced a new tablet to go along with its Z Launcher for Android devices. It’s basically a better iPad mini: it’s thinner, lighter, and features the laminated display that Apple added to the iPad Air 2 but didn’t include in the latest version of the itty-bitty iPad mini. Oh, and it will cost just $250 when it debuts early next year, compared to the iPad mini’s $399.
The device is expected to debut in China early next year before heading to Russia; it’s not clear when, or if, it will be available in Western markets. The tablet will actually be manufactured by Foxconn, which licensed the design and branding from Nokia, but the Finland-based company will have control of its design and sales. Nokia is dragging itself out of its Microsoft-dug grave.
by ilene - November 18th, 2014 6:54 pm
Sometimes there is nothing left to say, and talking isn't doing any good anyway, and you're still more angry than the $17 US dollars (or 0.05 bitcoin) it will cost to deliver your final message. Act on your feelings while the moment is hot, send (back) the Gift of Sh*t (but really), and try to proceed to closure.
On-demand fecal delivery (or “shit-tech”) is one of the hottest sectors around. And leading the way is Shit Express, whose super-simple elevator pitch is that for $16.95 [pay with Pay Pal], or 0.05 bitcoin, it will anonymously send a piece of shit to someone on your behalf.
Because we always aim to stay on the bleeding edge of emergent technology, Pando had to try out the service for itself. So one week ago, my colleague Michael Carney purchased a box of shit and had it sent to my address in Brooklyn. And today, I found in my stairwell a neatly gift-wrapped box from Slovenia addressed to “David F’ing Holmes” with this inside:
Note: I confirmed with Michael that he addressed it “David F’ing Holmes,” meaning that the shit definitely came from him and not somebody I’ve legitimately pissed off.
It even came affixed with this wonderful message on the side:
by ilene - November 18th, 2014 4:19 pm
Are the stock market patterns we've become used to during the last five years about to change? Tony Sagami argues that they are — that selling the rallies may be the next best move.
By Tony Sagami
The textbook definition of a correction is a drop of 10% or more. The stock market came close to hitting that correction benchmark and has mounted a furious rally since mid-October. The S&P 500 has staged a remarkable rally, jumping by 12% from its October lows in just four weeks.
There’s something in our DNA that pushes humans to follow the herd, and investors have been herding into the stock market in almost unprecedented enthusiasm. I mean really herd.
The S&P 500 has closed above its five-day moving average for 20 consecutive days. A five-day moving average is an extremely short-term indicator that can rapidly change, so the feat of staying above this hypersensitive indicator for almost a month is rare.
How rare? It has happened just three times before in the last two decades.
And each time when the market rallied so vigorously, the winning streak ended within four weeks. That tells me that despite the stock market’s hot hand, the risk/reward profile of the stock market is in favor of the downside.
The rally has also pushed valuations back into nosebleed territory. The S&P 500 is now trading at a P/E ratio of 19, which is well above the historical average of 15.
The stock market looks even more overvalued if you dig a little deeper. The Shiller P/E ratio, developed by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, adjusts earnings for inflation and average corporate earnings over the last 10 years. The current Shiller P/E ratio is 26.5, dangerously high compared to the historical average of 16.
Could the stock market get even more overvalued? Sure! During the dot-com heydays, the Shiller P/E got as high as 44.
Perhaps you’re not impressed with Shiller’s work. How do you feel about Warren Buffett? Buffett’s favorite valuation indicator is the total stock market cap divided by GDP.
Buffett called this indicator “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment” because it really compares