Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

New World Disorder: Emerging Division Between East And West Threatens To Plunge The Globe Into Chaos

New World Disorder: Emerging Division Between East And West Threatens To Plunge The Globe Into Chaos

Courtesy of Michael Snyder, the Economic Collapse

East And West - Public DomainIn general, over the last several decades the world has experienced an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity.  The opening up of relations with China and the "end of the Cold War" resulted in an extended period of cooperation between east and west that was truly unique in the annals of history. 

But things are shifting. The civil war in Ukraine and the crash of MH17 have created an enormous amount of tension between the United States and Russia, and many analysts believe that relations between the two superpowers are now even worse than they were during the end of the Cold War era.  In addition, the indictment of five PLA officers for cyber espionage and sharp disagreements over China's territorial claims in the South China Sea (among other issues) have caused U.S. relations with China to dip to their lowest point since at least 1989.  So could the emerging division between the east and the west ultimately plunge us into a period of global chaos?  And what would that mean for the world economy?

For as long as most Americans can remember, the U.S. dollar and the U.S. financial system have been overwhelmingly dominant.  But now the powers of the east appear to be determined to break this monopoly.  Four of the BRICS nations (China, Russia, India and Brazil) are on the list of the top ten biggest economies on the planet, and they are starting to make moves to become much less dependent on the U.S.-centered financial system of the western world.  For example, just last week the BRICS nations established two new institutions which are intended to be alternatives to the World Bank and the IMF…

So in their summit, from July 14 to 16, the five BRICS announced two major initiatives aimed squarely at increasing their power in global finance. They announced the launch of the New Development Bank, headquartered in Shanghai, that will offer financing for development projects in the emerging world. The bank will act as an alternative to the Washington, D.C.—based World Bank. The BRICS also formed what they’re calling a Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a series


continue reading





This Time Is Not Different: Why The Market Is Heading For A Fall

This Time Is Not Different: Why The Market Is Heading For A Fall

Courtesy of  

The 2008 Wall Street meltdown is long forgotten, having been washed away by a tsunami of central bank liquidity. Indeed, the S&P closed yesterday at 1,983—or up by nearly 200% from its March 2009 low. Yet four cardinal measures of Main Street economic health convey nothing like a 2X pick-up from the post-crisis bottom.

To wit, in June the count of breadwinner jobs was 68.5 million or 5% below were it stood as the crisis got underway. Likewise, business investment in real plant and equipment is still 5% below its late 2007 peak. So too with the real median family income at about $53k—its still down by 6%. And unlike past cycles where safety net programs like food stamps shed recipients as the recovery gained momentum, there are still nearly 47 million Americans in the program compared to 30 million in March 2009.

Untitled

This juxtaposition has been explained away by Wall Street stock touts under the heading that “this time is different”. Markets have allegedly sprung loose from their moorings in the real economy owing to record corporate profits and an upward re-rating of PE multiples reflecting lower than historical interest rates. And, indeed, the raw facts can be marshaled to this end.

As shown in the stunning chart below, profits have doubled as a share of corporate net value added since the turn of the century. Likewise, when measured against GDP, profits are at 60-year highs.

This is just the trouble, however. The robust rate of profit growth during recent years reflects a one-time gain in the profit share of factor income. This gain in all probability cannot be replicated again during the next decade, and, in fact, is extremely vulnerable to the mean reversion so evident in the historical data above. Indeed, that may have already begun during the first quarter of 2014 when the profit share dropped sharply as shown in both charts above.

The same can be said of low interest rates. After an unprecedented 33-year descent, the yield on the 10-year treasury benchmark has nowhere


continue reading





There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

Courtesy of  

Fairly Priced?

US stocks dropped on Thursday, after news broke that someone shot down a Malaysian passenger airplane over eastern Ukraine. Then came the report that Israel had ordered a ground assault on Gaza. The Dow lost 161 points. Gold shot up $17 an ounce.

This comes only days after the Princess of Peace, Janet Yellen, assured investors that most stocks were fairly priced. We don’t doubt that she was right. Prices are set by willing buyers and sellers, operating on the basis of what they know at the time.

What they knew on Wednesday was that Yellen had their backs. Thursday, they weren’t so sure. Friday’s another matter …

padlock-24051_640-266x300

Swinging Both Ways

Fair – in the context of market prices – has nothing to do with it. Mr. Market goeth whither he wouldst… given the facts on the ground and the theories in the air. The important questions: Does Mr. Market intend to take prices down now? Can Yellen manipulate them higher faster than he can push them down?

Helpful as always, we have no answer to either question. Instead, we have something more important to tell you. It’s an instinct, an intuition and an observation: Prices always go both ways.

No, we are not revealing any deep market secret. Nor any special insight into the world’s crises. We are just observing that trouble comes when it is needed. Markets can’t go in only one direction forever. Sooner or later, they need a reason to turn around.

Here’s another important insight: The longer the trouble is held off, the more trouble there is waiting to express itself. US stock prices and corporate earnings are near all-time highs. Those two facts seem to click. But they warn us too: Lows follow highs.

SPX

At highs it always seems like it cannot go down – and then it does – click to enlarge.

A Crowded Theater

Debt is at all time highs, too. And the cost of capital – expressed as


continue reading





“Redemption Gates” for Money Market Funds

“Redemption Gates” for Money Market Funds

Courtesy of 

gate

Property Rights of Money Market Fund Investors Are Weakened

Here is one more reason (as if one was needed …) why one should hold physical gold outside of the system for insurance purposes. We already briefly alluded to the new rules that are mulled with respect to bond funds, but it seems that they are now implemented for money market funds first.

According to Reuters:

U.S. regulators are expected to adopt rules on Wednesday that force "prime" money market funds used by large institutions to float their share price. Proponents have suggested that moving from the current stable $1 per share net asset value (NAV) to a floating NAV would help prevent investors from getting spooked by the prospect of funds "breaking the buck," or falling lower than that amount.

 

The Securities and Exchange Commission is also likely to finalize a second provision that will permit fund boards to lower so-called redemption "gates" or charge fees in stressed market conditions, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

The reform will impact a wide variety of asset managers, from Blackrock Inc, Fidelity and Vanguard to Charles Schwab Corp, Pimco and Federated Investors Inc. The two-pronged reform for the $2.6 trillion industry comes after a long battle between the SEC, the


continue reading





A Revolving Door Farce: CFTC Commissioner Bails To Head Regulator’s Biggest Opponent

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

There is no better way to describe what the recently departed CFTC commissioner Scott O'Malia just did when he bailed from the commodity watchdog to become the new head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, aka ISDA, the biggest banking group that has constantly opposed every intervention and attempt to regulate the swaps market by the CFTC since the Lehman crisis, than an epic farce.

For those who are unaware ISDA is a global OTC derivative lobby group, counting the world's largest investment banks among its members, and has frequently fought regulatory efforts to reform the market after the financial crisis. ISDA itself was exposed as a complete joke during the European crisis when due to the overhang of avoiding Europe's insolvent reality, it made CDS protection obsolete as protection from sovereign restructurings and credit events, in the process crushing one of the key ways to hedge for credit event risk. 

Meet Scott O'Malia

A member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will become the new head of a bank lobby group that is fighting the derivatives regulator in court over a crucial new rule curtailing Wall Street.

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said on Wednesday that Scott O'Malia, a Republican who often voted against new CFTC policy in the wake of the financial crisis, will become the trade group's next chief executive.

O'Malia will start his new job as of Aug. 18, ISDA said. The news came only days after O'Malia said he planned to leave the CFTC as of Aug. 8.

ISDA is one of three banking groups that sued the CFTC in December, hoping to beat back tough trading guidelines for U.S. companies doing business overseas, which they fear could hurt markets and cut profits.

The two sides are set to face each other in a first hearing in a federal court in Washington next week.

Even an otherwise impartial Reuters appears outraged by this blatant and painfully clear example of government capture of "public servants" by those who have dangle carrots of money in exchange for lobby (and future employment promise) favors, and thus set the rules, courtesy of people like O'Malia.

The speed of O'Malia's move, and ISDA's high profile, made the


continue reading





Mistrust the Financial Storytellers

 

Mistrust the Financial Storytellers

Courtesy of Tim Richards of the PsyFi Blog

Homo narratus

Homo sapiens is the storytelling ape. We make sense of the things that happen in the world, of the things that happen to us, and even of ourselves, through stories and narratives. Consciousness is perhaps best defined as the stories we tell of ourselves as coherent individuals passing through time.

So it's not surprising that we're inclined to favor people who tell stories over those who crunch data. Words are human, numbers – somehow – are not. But the real stories lie in the numbers and, in investment, people who tell stories without the numbers are mystics and shamans, or worse.

Meta-representation

The ability to think beyond the here and now is almost exclusive to humans. Our ability to draw on memories of previous generations, of previous cultures from thousands of years ago is unparalleled, at least on this particular lump of rock. We are able to understand representation – the ability to understand that a sock puppet can represent a priest or a (fictional) hobbit can represent the forces of good – and beyond that, to understand metarepresentation: we understand that these representations are representations (see, for example, Leda Cosmides and John Tooby's Consider the Source).
 
This ability is entwined with theory of mind which I discussed in A Keynesian Theory of Mind - our ability to understand and interpret the intentions of another person, an ability which is so natural we only realize its existence when we meet someone who doesn't possess it – we call them autistic. All of which means, unsurprisingly, that we're interested in stories about people trying to understand the minds of other people. Novels, we call 'em. Stories. Narratives. And in the right place, at the right time they are downright wonderful.
 
But in the wrong place, misused and misconstrued, they're awfully dangerous because the psychological drives that inspired someone to write down theThe Epic of Gilgamesh 3,000 years old are the same motivations


continue reading





War Zones

War Zones

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler 

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summed it up the other day when he said, “We use our rockets to protect our women and children; they [Hamas] use their women and children to protect their rockets.”

Some time ago, the Left adopted the Palestinians as their pet oppressed minority group so there is nothing that Israel might do that will be okay with them, except to commit suicide, that is, cease to exist — which is the stated policy of Hamas. Every time Israel refuses the suggestion that it cease to exist, the Left becomes inflamed. They cannot imagine why Israel would prefer to fight for its existence than to roll over and die.

The Palestinian leadership doesn’t really want to talk about any resolution to the enduring crisis in which Israel is granted the right to exist. That doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for negotiation, and so they have literally painted themselves into a geographical corner of the region called the Gaza Strip where one of their other policies is to grow the Palestinian population in the hopes of eventually wiping Israel off the map by sheer demographic pressure. The political Right Wing of Israel is using exactly the same tactic in the contested West Bank. All of that is tragic, of course, because when the oil age comes to an end the entire region of the southern Levant will probably support one-twentieth of the population of all ethnic groups.

The New York Times reported that street protests against Israel had broken out in London and Paris, giving the impression that some broad national sentiment was being expressed when, in fact, the protesters were from the large Muslim communities that these nations had foolishly invited to immigrate there. Has anyone in the West still failed to notice the pugnacity of Islam in our time? Islam does not want to co-exist with the West anymore than the Palestinians want to grant Israel the right to exist.

Luckily for the West, there is enough animosity between the Islamic factions to distract Islam from its mission to defeat all the great-and-small Satans cluttering up their world. All this is happening as that world lurches


continue reading





How RenTec Made More Than $34 Billion In Profits Since 1998: “Fictional Derivatives”

How RenTec Made More Than $34 Billion In Profits Since 1998: "Fictional Derivatives"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Ten days ago Bloomberg reported that as a result of various tax dodges, one of the fastest-trading hedge funds in the US, Jim Simmons' Renaissance Technologies, had managed to avoid paying ordinary income tax on billions in profits, by classifying trades that often times had a holding period of minutes if not seconds, as a long-term capital gain. As part of this finding, it was reported that there would be a hearing chaired by none other than Carl "Shitty Deal" Levin scheduled for tomorrow morning when yet another tax loophole abused by not only RenTec but all of its high churn and HFT peers (because the "friends and family" Medallion is at its core the original HFT fund) would be exposed for all to see. Moments ago, in advance of tomorrow's 9:30 am hearing, the permanent subcommittee on investigations released a 93 page report on just how it was that RenTec engaged in the "improper use of this structured financial product, known as basket options."

As the preamble to the report notes:

The report outlines how Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Bank PLC, over the course of more than a decade, sold financial products known as basket options to more than a dozen hedge funds. From 1998 to 2013, the banks sold 199 basket options to hedge funds which used them to conduct more than $100 billion in trades. The subcommittee focused on options involving two of the largest basket option users, Renaissance Technology Corp. LLC (“RenTec”) and George Weiss Associates.

The hedge funds often exercised the options shortly after the one-year mark and claimed the trading profits were eligible for the lower income tax rate that applies to long-term capital gains on assets held for at least a year. RenTec claimed it could treat the trading profits as long term gains, even though it executed an average of 26 to 39 million trades per year and held many positions for mere seconds.

Data provided by the participants indicates that basket options produced about $34 billion in trading profits for RenTec alone, and more than $1 billion in financing and trading fees for the two banks.

And considering the topic of tax-evasion…
continue reading





Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

www.interactivebrokers.com

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

The largest trade in OREX options today appears to be the purchase of a 10,000-lot Sep 5.0/7.0 call spread at a net premium of $0.72 per contract. The spread positions the investor to make money above an effective breakeven price of $5.72, with maximum potential profits of $1.28 per contract available on the spread in the event that OREX shares rally 31.0% over the current price to hit $7.00 at expiration. Shares in Orexigen last traded above $7.00 on June 10th.


Tags:




Thom Hartmann: The Crash of 2016

Thom Hartmann: The Crash of 2016

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americian

This is a view of how we got here and where we are going that you are unlikely to hear from the mainstream media.





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Obama Shenanigans on 'Factoryless' Exports, Taxes, Employment, Jobs

Courtesy of Mish.

Corporate Deserters

President Obama was beating the drums on Thursday in Los Angeles regarding corporate tax deserters, companies that move headquarters or tax shields to another country in order to escape high US tax rates.

The LA Times provides the details in President Obama Hits 'Corporate Deserters' in Populist L.A. Speech.
Tearing into companies he dubbed “corporate deserters,” President Obama on Thursday launched an election-year push to make it harder for U.S. companies to avoid paying taxes.

Under a bright sun at a trade and technical college in Los Angeles, Obama issued a damning assessment of a “small but growing” group of companies taking a...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Where China Goes To Outsource Its Own Soaring Labor Costs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

30 years ago, the great outsourcing wave took millions of US low-skilled jobs and planted them right in the heart of China, which was about to undergo the fastest industrialization-commercialization-financialization experiment in history. $26 trillion in bank assets later, the world's biggest housing bubble, and a teetering financial system that every day depends on Beijing making the correct central-planning decision (of kicking the can one more day, of course) or else the biggest financial collapse in history will take place, all lubricated by years of inflation in everything and most certainly wages, and suddenly outsourcing jobs in China is not all that attractive.  In fact, it has gotten so b...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

DigiTimes Reports Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Affiliate Receives Apple iWatch Orders

Courtesy of Benzinga.

An affiliated company of Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (NYSE: ASX), Universal Scientific Industrial, has reportedly received SiP module orders from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) for the iWatch according to industry sources, as reported by DigiTimes. Each SiP module costs approximately $60, which is 20% of the iWatch's rumored $300 price tag.

View full article http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20140723PD209.html

Posted-In: Digitimes...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bulls Take Notice - Caution Suggested as Credit Markets and Equity Markets Diverge

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Summary
  • Divergence with small cap stocks and junk bonds persists.
  • Credit spreads widening suggests building short-term financial stress.
  • Markets oversold and how risk areas react will be telling.

One of the most widely followed market theories is Dow Theory, which has been around for more than 100 years. The essence of Dow Theory is to focus on confirmations or non-confirmations between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for assessing market trends and reversals. If one of the indexes breaks out to a new high while the other does not, we have a non-confirmation and the potential for a market reversal.

Similar to Dow Theory I like to look for confirmation between the stock market and the credit markets. When one market does not confirm the other, caution is ...



more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

more from Caitlin

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

more from SWW

Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



more from Paul

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>