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LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

www.interactivebrokers.com

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock touched a more than 15-year high of $35.55.  Shares in LUV last traded near $39.00 in 1994.

Chart – Six-month chart of Southwest Airlines Co.


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Larry Swedroe: Use Valuations for Expected Returns, Not Market Timing

Larry Swedroe: Use Valuations for Expected Returns, Not Market Timing

Courtesy of 

When forecasting investment returns, many individuals make the mistake of simply extrapolating recent returns into the future. Bull markets lead investors to expect higher future returns, and bear markets lead them to expected lower future returns. But the price you pay for an asset also has a great impact on future returns. Consider the following evidence:

The average historical P/E ratio for the market has been around 15. A study covering the period from 1926 through the second quarter of 1999 found that an investor buying stocks when the market traded at P/E ratios of between 14 and 16 earned a median return of 11.8 percent over the next 10 years. This was remarkably close to the long-term return of the market. The S&P 500 returned 11.0 percent per year for the 74-year period 1926-2000.

On the other hand, investors purchasing stocks when the market traded at P/E ratios of greater than 22 earned a median return of just 5 percent per year over the next 10 years. And investors who purchased stocks when the market traded at P/E ratios below 10 earned a median return of 16.9 percent per year over the next 10 years.

Swedroe: Valuations And Asset Allocation

Yesterday I linked to Larry Swedroe’s excellent piece on asset allocations and valuation at ETF.com. I wanted to pull out the most salient point here because I think it’s so crucial for investors to understand. The debates about CAPE and valuation that rage constantly in the media usually center around a “should you buy or sell” question. In truth, there is no buy signal from PE ratios, but there is a very real possibility of higher or lower long-term returns depending on when the bulk of your money is invested in stocks.

Fortunately, we don’t currently sell at an extreme PE multiple in US stocks, although it is elevated. Meanwhile, many foreign stock markets are becoming scary-cheap.

Picture by Geralt at Pixabay.





Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Cramer/Albo – Human weather vane.  

    Learning/Pirate – That's why we strongly recommend paper trading for a few months in the New Member's Guide – it's a lot of stuff to take in, that's why Med students practice on cadavers too and law students do mock trails – this is serious stuff you don't want to screw up when it's real.  If you'd like to review a couple of mistakes after hours we can go through them – good learning experience for all that way.  

    Kudlow/Yo – I'd pay to see that show!  

    Direction/8800 – I think I have to give today a pass as it was driven by events in Canada (whatever that is) and we held up our obligatory retrace.  But, as Rustle notes, what we really care about is how fast the oversold condition on the NYMO worked off on this small pullback.  If we get a quick move to neutral, then this is likely to be a very minor pause on the way back up but, if we're still oversold after today's action, then we'll look for the full 2% retrace (another day like this, at least).  

    YELP/Rustle – Ouch indeed!  

    Yelp results top forecasts; shares down on sales outlook

    $5Bn for that company – people are on drugs!  

    IRBT/Scott – March $28s are about $8.20 and short Dec $33s are $4 with IRBT at $36.  Yes to 25% premium, 25% OF THE PRICE is premium and the rest is intrinsic, in the money.  On the other hand, pretty much 100% of your $28s are in the money so, realistically, if you leave it alone and IRBT goes up from here, you net no less than $5 on the trade or 58%.  If you are going to roll, first look at what is an even roll – so what is $4 in June.  Looks like the $37s.  Rolling the Dec $33s to the June $37s gives you $4 more upside, that seems worth it.  You still have $4 of downside protection but that would only apply if you were Ready, Willing AND ABLE to stop out your March $28s (maybe at $7.50) and leave the short June $37s


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Evidence of Another Even More Sweeping Housing Bust is Already Starting to Appear

Evidence of Another Even More Sweeping Housing Bust is Already Starting to Appear

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: With permission, the following article was adapted from the October 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Elliott Wave International. Rview an extended version of the article for free here.

In February, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed the great boom in New York City's residential real estate and its keen resemblance to what happened in 1929, when the demand for luxury housing also spiked to previously unseen heights. At 133 East 80th Street, we found this plaque commemorating the earlier era's brick-and-mortar monuments to a Supercycle degree peak in social mood.

The plaque went up in 2010, demonstrating the strength of the bullish echo from the end of Supercycle wave (III) to the final after-effects of Supercycle wave (V). Another link to the prior manic era is that many of Rosario Candela-designed apartment towers from the 1920s have become "some of New York's most coveted addresses." As architectural historian Christopher Gray puts it, Candela is now Manhattan real estate brokers' "name-drop of choice. Nowadays, to own a 10-to 20-room apartment in a Candela-designed building is to accede to architectural as well as social cynosure."

Of course, the most brilliant stars in the New York skyline are those that sell for the highest prices, and that honor belongs to the brand new penthouses that the Financial Forecast talked about in February. Most are popping up along the rim of Central Park, forming a ring of cloud-topping towers that will be so pronounced it is already called Billionaires' Row.

Here is a short video that shows two of them as they were topped off in February.

The video helps illustrate our point from February: "As in the 1880s, the views and proximity to Central Park drive development, but the new buildings rise so high that the park's presence fades away."

As the Dow rallied to its September high, prices for space in these buildings also entered the stratosphere. According to Forbes, a penthouse apartment on the 89th and 90th stories of One57 (building at the end of the clip) sold for $90 to $100 million,…
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The Flat Debt Society

The Flat Debt Society

By John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde says the global economy is facing “the risk of a new mediocre, where growth is low and uneven.”…  Lagarde said Europe's 18-nation bloc that uses the euro currency – collectively the world's biggest economy – is facing the "not insignificant" risk of falling back into a recession. (VOA News)

Since at least the beginning of 2006, the most asked question I get after a speech is “Do you think we will have inflation or deflation?” In an attempt at humor, my answer has been “Yes.” I go on to try to explain that we are in a deflationary environment, but eventually we will see inflation. When QE1 was announced, there were many pundits (none of the Keynesian variety) who immediately said the risk was for significant inflation, and there were even those (like Peter Schiff) who talked of hyperinflation and the demise of the dollar. Interest rates would rise, and US government bonds would collapse.

My response at the time was that the Federal Reserve would print more money than any of us could possibly imagine (and who imagined $3+ trillion?), and we would not see any inflation. My reasoning was that we were in a deleveraging world where the velocity of money was clearly falling. I explained – once again – the relationship between inflation and the velocity of money.

Beginning with last week’s letter, “Sea Change,” my answer to that question for the foreseeable future will be simply, “Deflation.” In Endgame Jonathan Tepper and I described the economic environment of a deleveraging world, especially that of Europe. In Code Red we described the coming world of currency wars, with Japan having fired the first shot. Sadly, we continue to see the themes of those books play out in the real world.

Over the coming months we are going to explore the implications of a rising dollar for equity markets, global trade, commodity prices (especially oil), interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy, just to mention a few of the areas that will be impacted as global currency flows shift and protectionism is on the rise. Not all markets and governments will be affected in…
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Poster Children

Poster Children

Courtesy of 

grimace

IBM, Coca-Cola and McDonalds are three of America’s largest corporations and most well-known brands. They are true multinationals in every sense of the word and they dominate their industries both at home and abroad. They are numbers 23, 58 and 106 on the Fortune 500 list, respectively. Together, they make up 12 percent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s total weighting.

And all three are plagued by the same problem – they’re shrinking. More than this, their shrinkage is finally being recognized on The Street, now that investors are peeling back all of the layers of buyback and dividend subterfuge that’ve kept this fact disguised for so many years.

McDonalds has been trading like a bond for the last two years, oscillating within a tight ten-point range between 90 and 100 dollars a share, a 3-and-change percent dividend along with a buyback keeping it afloat almost regardless of how poorly its margins and same store sales have come in. Not anymore. This morning it told Wall Street that earnings in the last quarter are down by an unbelievable 30 percent. No more bond-like status for Mickey D – and indeed, the stock looks to trade below the $90 level for the first time since January of 2013. As McDonalds raises prices on fancier offerings, they run into new competitors at the higher tier. As they fight to maintain their economically absurd “Dollar Menu”, they collapse their own margins. It’s not unfixable, but it’s a bad situation. On top of that, all of the marketing in the world cannot change the fact that the current McDonalds product and experience is socially unacceptable to what used to be the company’s core audience. I don’t know anyone who would feed their kids that stuff or bring a greasy sack of it up to their office these days.

Coca-Cola’s core business, diet and regular soda, is dead. Everyone knows it except for shareholders, who’ve kept the stock near 52-week highs regardless of the massive shift in consumer tastes away from sugars, preservatives, artificial ingredients and unhealthy soft drinks. They’ve been shareholder-friendly on management incentives, dividends and buybacks as well – but it may not be enough anymore. Coca-Cola is not growing and


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What Do You and the Energizer Bunny Have in Common?

TransTech Digest: What Do You and the Energizer Bunny Have in Common?

By Patrick Cox

While it would be a stretch to say that you run on lithium, you may stand to benefit greatly from it. Human biochemistry is one of the most complicated systems in existence. Certainly, it’s the most studied of complicated systems. As the tools available to biotechnologists increase in power exponentially, the pace of discovery in all the biological sciences is increasing dramatically. The science of nutrition is no exception. In fact, it appears to be one of the biggest and earliest beneficiaries.

The term bioinformatics refers to the application of computer technologies such as advanced correlation analysis to biological data. In conjunction with increasingly sophisticated databank software, the ability to collect more accurate and meaningful data has also improved due to the falling cost of high-tech biotech tools. One field that is experiencing major transformations due to bioinformatics is the science of nutrition. As scientists turn their investigative attention to our diets, we’re often very surprised to learn which chemicals are beneficial and which are detrimental.

Over the past decade, it’s become increasingly clear that lithium has various neuroprotective abilities, meaning that it helps preserve the health and function of the electrically activated neurons of our nervous systems. Neurons differ from most cells in that they do not replicate via cell division, or mitosis. Instead, they can increase through a process called neurogenesis that involves the neural stem cells and progenitor cells. At one time, it was believed that adults couldn’t grow additional neurons, but recent discoveries, including the mitochondrial breakthroughs I’ve written about here, have shown this not to be true. Nevertheless, the health and function of our neurons is of critical importance because these critically important cells give us our power to think and sense.

Lithium, a metal so light that bars of the element float in water, is found in varying concentrations in soils. People ingest lithium either directly through drinking water or indirectly by way of plant foods that absorb local water.

Another possible way to consume lithium is by smoking tobacco that has high lithium content. Let me be very clear that I’m not recommending that you smoke anything. In fact, I’m recommending…
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Comment by zeroxzero

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  1. zeroxzero

    StJ / looking up in Europe:  "Looking up"  seems to be a pretty scarce commodity right now.

      Let's see — Japan is tanking, Europe continues to tank [Germany having gone down with the EuroShip as well over recent months], China is tanking big time we read today, and commodity producers around the world [Brazil, Latam, SE Asia] continue to tank.

    Russia, aka "Upper Volta with missiles" , which produces and exports absolutely nothing of a value-added nature and relies entirely on oil exports, is tanking badly while killing top foreign oil executives with Speznaz-trained alcoholic snowplow drivers, while the U.S., bastion of political and economic freedom and stability, had its stock market felll off a cliff briefly and has been in high-alert-for-further-tanking-threat since mid-September, while the U.S. bond market yields dropped from 2.6 to  2.2 in the equivalent period…..and I'm still long equities?? 

    Changing diapers and mixing formula at 4:30 am is, admittedly, addling my brain somewhat but perhaps I should be selling the pops and buying canned food and ammo instead of equities.







Scrapes on the Sidewalk

Scrapes on the Sidewalk

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with the investment advice to “buy when there’s blood in the streets.” Well, with the Russell 2000 correcting about -14% and the S&P 500 -8% from their 2014 highs, you may not be witnessing drenched, bloody streets, but you could say there has been some “scrapes on the sidewalk.”

Although the Volatility Index (VIX – a.k.a., “Fear Gauge”) reached the highest level since 2011 last week (31.06), the S&P 500 index still hasn’t hit the proverbial “correction” level yet. Even with some blood being shed, the clock is still running since the last -10% correction experienced during the summer of 2011 when the Arab Spring sprung and fears of a Greek exit from the EU was blanketing the airwaves. If investors follow the effective 5-year investment playbook, this recent market dip, like previous ones, should be purchased. Following this “buy-the-dip” mentality since the lows experienced in 2011 would have resulted in stock advancing about +75% in three years.

If you have a more pessimistic view of the equity markets and you think Ebola and European economic weakness will lead to a U.S. recession, then history would indicate investors have suffered about 50% of the pain. Your ordinary, garden-variety recession has historically resulted in about a -20% hit to stock prices. However, if you’re in the camp that we’re headed into another debilitating “Great Recession” as we experienced in 2008-2009, then you should brace for more pain and grab some syringes of Novocaine.

If you’re seriously considering some of these downside scenarios, wouldn’t it make sense to analyze objective data to bolster evidence of an impending recession? If the U.S. truly was on the verge of recession, wouldn’t the following dynamics likely be in place?

  • Two quarters of consecutive, negative GDP (Gross Domestic Property) data
  • Inverted yield curve
  • Rising unemployment and mass layoff announcements
  • Declining corporate profits
  • Hawkish Federal Reserve

The reality of the situation is the U.S. economy continues to expand; the yield curve remains relatively steep and positive; unemployment declined to 5.9% in the most recent month; corporate profits are at record levels…
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Comment by craigsa620

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  1. craigsa620

    ZZ- I definitely did not catch your drift and wasn't thinking along the same lines. As I said, in the portfolio I have the problems with, I have nothing borrowed against margin. However, I wasn't thinking along those lines, so I do need to give your mushroom hunter some thought. Hate friggin mushrooms.







 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Spanish Tenants Wake Up To The Horror Of A Wall Street Landlord

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having grown weary of reality in America (after becoming the biggest landlord in the land of the free to borrow cheaply), Wall Street moved into the distressed property purchase ponzi in Spain (as we noted here) and, surprise, the Spanish are not happy with their new slumlords. After Madrid's local government sold 5,000 rent-controlled apartments to Goldman and Blackstone, having told tenants their rental conditions would remain the same, dozens of people have received dema...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 4.12% for the Week

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 oscillated a bit during its opening hour, hitting its -0.23% intraday low in the first 30 minutes of trading. The index then rose in a couple of waves to its 0.71% closing gain, fractionally off its 0.74% intraday high. This was a big week for the 500, surging 4.12% and nearly erasing its October loss, which now stands at -0.39%. It is now only 2.33% from its record close on September 18th.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.29%, unchanged from yesterday's close and up 7 bps from last Friday's close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.

On the daily chart below we see that volume was relatively light -- the first daily gain with volume below its 50-day moving average since September 26th. Today's closing price is just a hair below its 50-day day moving average.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street

Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street

Courtesy of 

To outsiders, Wall Street is a manic, dangerous and ridiculous republic unto itself – a sort of bizarro world where nothing adds up and common sense is virtually inapplicable.

Consider the following insane things that we believe on Wall Street, that make no sense whatsoever in the real world:

1. Falling gas and home heating prices are a bad thing

2. Layoffs are great news, the more the better

3. Billionaires from Greenwich, CT can understand the customers of JC Penney, Olive Garden, K-Mart and Sears

4. A company is plagued by the fact&nbs...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Reiterates On ResMed Following 1Q15 Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RMD Morning Market Movers Qualcomm Announces New Connected Health Collaborations at Connect 2014

In a report published Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman reiterated an Equal-Weight rating on ResMed (NYSE: RMD), and raised the price target from $46.19 to $49.57.

In the report, Morgan Stanley noted, “Currency headwinds and part quarter release of the S10 downplayed expectations ahead of the result. Despite this, RMD beat on US revenue driv...



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Market Shadows

Bill Ackman's Big Pharma Trade Is Making Wall Street A Super Awkward Place

 

#452525522 / gettyimages.com

Intro by Ilene

If you're following Valeant's proposed takeover (or merger) of Allergan and the lawsuit by Allergan against Valeant and notorious hedge fund manager William Ackman, for insider trading this is a must-read article. 

Linette Lopez describes the roles played by key Wall Street hedge fund owners--Jim Chanos, John Paulson, and Mason Morfit, a major shareholder in Valeant. Linette goes through the con...



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Option Review

LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock tou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sharp selloff in stocks sets up long-awaiting buying opportunity

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week brought even more stock market weakness and volatility as the selloff became self-perpetuating, with nobody mid-day on Wednesday wanting to be the last guy left holding equities. Hedge funds and other weak holders exacerbated the situation. But the extreme volatility and panic selling finally led some bulls (along with many corporate insiders) to summon a little backbone and buy into weakness, and the market finished the week on a high note, with continued momentum likely into the first part of this week.

Despite concerns about global economic growth and a persistent lack of inflation, especially given all the global quantitative easing, fundamentals for U.S. stocks still look good, and I believe this overdue correction ultimately will shape up to be a great buying opportunity -- i.e., th...



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Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 20th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Just sign in with your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

#457319216 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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