Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Meditative Monday Markets – Contemplating the Fed

It's the last week of summer. 

That's something my kids are keenly aware of as they head back to high school.  Turns out Jackie's (14) summer bucket list included a weekend at Martha's Vineyard and she was devastated to find out that telling me this on Thursday last week wasn't adequate notice to plan a trip for next weekend, even if I were so inclined.  

The Fed schedules their Jackson Hole conference for the last week of summer because they know no one on Wall Street does anything until after Labor Day (9/5) so the purpose of the whole circus is to give us something to chew on over the holiday, when the G20 Meeting will be held in Hangzhou, China.  As you can see from JackDamn's SPY chart, the market has been running hot all summer but we're having a lot of trouble at that top channel and there's very little support below 2,160 on the S&P all the way back to 2,100.

Hope, though, springs eternal into the fall as bullish investors are still salivating over the possibility (they think certainty) of another major round of fiscal stimulus and God help us all if the G20 disappoints on that front next weekend because the Fed certainly gave us no clear direction out of their meeting.

What Yellen said on Friday (key quote) was:

"In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal-funds rate has strengthened in recent months."

"I believe" is not the same as "we believe" and a divided Fed is what has given us this choppy summer trading pattern.  Vice Chairman Fisher seemed to have more of the team spirit saying: "We should be on a program of gradual rate increases," though he added, "We can afford to be patient" when it comes to acting.  The Fed Governors were all over the place in their statements, however but, generally, all hedged towards data-dependence:

  • "If we had a lot of good news and we got into the September meeting and other people wanted to go, I could

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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Japan Pension Giant’s Losses Imply a $53 Billion Stock Splurge (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest pension fund has room for a Japan stock shopping spree after the value of its investments tumbled last quarter.

U.K.’s May Orders Brexit Plans Ahead of G-20, Newspapers Report (Bloomberg)

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May asked her cabinet ministers to come up with a blueprint for how their departments may be able to benefit from Britain’s exit from the European Union ahead of the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in China, according to newspaper reports.

Saudi Arabian Stocks Lead Gulf Gains as Oil Offsets Fed Concern (Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabian stocks led gains across Gulf equities as an advance in the price of oil helped offset investor caution over the timing of U.S. interest-rate increases.

Dana Gas May Seek to Roll Over Part of $700 Million Islamic Bond (Bloomberg)

Dana Gas PJSC, a producer of natural gas in Egypt, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, may seek to roll over part of the $700 million Islamic bonds maturing next year, the chief executive officer said.

Huge hedge fund redemptions are horrible news for the industry (Wolf Street)

The toxic mix of crummy performance and high fees are having some impact. And it’s big money: The hedge fund industry has over $3 trillion under management.

Egypt Ban on Wheat With Ergot Fungus Adds Confusion for Traders (Bloomberg)

Egypt will no longer accept imported wheat containing any traces of the ergot fungus, the Agriculture Ministry said Sunday, sowing fresh regulatory confusion that has hampered shipments to the world’s biggest buyer of the grain.

The Bank of Japan is worried about a stock market crash (Wolf Street)

No central bank of a developed country equals the Bank of Japan in trying to manipulate the stock market up by buying equities. The BOJ has done this for years. With breath-taking ineffectiveness.

China’s middle class is exploding (True Wealth Publishing)

The American consumer has been a central driver of

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Europe’s Long War with Islam


Europe’s Long War with Islam

By George Friedman at Mauldin Economics

Any discussion of Islamist terrorism in Europe and the refugee crisis has to be placed in a broader historical context. One way to approach this is to think about the Mediterranean Sea, which was central to the Roman Empire.

The Romans occupied both shores of the Mediterranean and created a single integrated political and economic system around it. As the Roman Empire declined, the system fractured. The general outcome was that Christianity was prevalent on the northern shore of the Mediterranean, and Islam became dominant on the southern shore.

Over time, both extended beyond the Mediterranean basin. Christianity extended to the east (into Russia) and north of the Alps (into Germany, Britain, and Scandinavia). Islam extended south (deeper into Africa) and east (into the Indian Ocean basin and the South China Sea).

But the Mediterranean remained the center of gravity and the flash point of their relationship, as it is today.

The Early Years of Christianity and Islam

The fourth century was a critical time for Christianity. Constantine converted to Christianity and declared Byzantium (today’s Istanbul) the new Rome. His ascent was bloody, and he used Christianity to hold together the remnants of the Roman Empire. One reason that he chose Byzantium as his seat was to try to control the northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean under one set of beliefs.

From the beginning, Christianity was both a religion and a political force, though never united into a single entity. It was divided into regional churches with different doctrines. The primordial split was between the Roman church and the Orthodox churches of the east.

Muhammed founded Islam about 300 years later on the Arabian Peninsula. Islam was a political religion as well, uniting the faithful and the empire. Islam surged eastward into Persia and westward into the southern shore of the Mediterranean, where it supplanted most of the fragmented Christian regions.

Then a few centuries after Muhammed’s death, Islam fragmented into the Shiite regions of Persia and the Euphrates valley, and the Sunni regions in the west, the southern Mediterranean in particular.

Conquering Lands across the Sea

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Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Income Portfolio – Not a full update but concentrating on moves that need to be made:  

    • TASR – No point to keeping Sept $7.50 put at .30 to make .10 per month.  Let's buy it back and see if we get a downturn we can sell Dec puts into (now .55).  
    • CZR – Big drop this month – great for a new entry (not today – maybe next week – goes for all)
    • RRD – Strong
    • FCX – CEO just bought more.  Good for new entry.  
    • CLF – Fine.  Good for new entry.  
    • HOV – Good for new entry.  
    • AA – Good for new entry. 
    • CSCO – Fine 
    • AGNC – Good for new entry.  
    • AAPL – Damn, we own that piece of crap?  Good for new entry.  
    • EWZ – Wow, what a drop!  
    • TSAL – Improving a bit.  
    • BRK.B – June $100 caller now $11.60, which is .40 less than we sold them for!  Those ran up a lot on us so let's just be happy to make .40 and see how that 50 dma holds up ($110) next week before selling again.  
    • DIA – Wow, that was stupid not buying those short Aug $149 puts back when we went bearish.  No one reminded me then and I forgot but, if we're naked short DIA in the STP, it's not likely we want to be long essentially the same position in the Income Portfolio.  No biggie, our Aug $147 puts are up $2.20 at $3.95 and the June $149 puts are down $1.13 at $2.  I'm bullish into the close so let's wait but, generally, I think I'm happy with the roll to the quarterly $148 puts at $2.05 as the .05 pays for the roll and we'll just see what happens over the weekend.  That's the official play by the day's end but no hurry as the Dow may rise 100 into the close and save us some money.  
    • PGH – Good for new entry.  
    • OIH – Fine. 
    • UNH – Fine
    • GLW – Fine
    • BRCM – Good for new entry.  
    • ABX – Arrrrgh!   OK, so we entered with a commitment to buy 1,500 at net $27 and now they are $16.  We can buy back the 2015

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The Fed: Myths vs. Reality


The Fed: Myths vs. Reality

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Crystal Ball

Traders, bloggers, media talking heads, and pundits of all stripes went into a feverish sweat as they anticipated the comments of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen at the annual economic summit held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. When Yellen, arguably the most dovish Fed Chairman in history, uttered, “I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,” an endless stream of commentators used this opportunity to spout out a never-ending stream of predictions describing the looming consequences of such a potential rate increase.

As I’ve stated before, the Fed receives both too much blame and too much credit for basically doing nothing except moving short-term interest rates up or down (and most of the time they do nothing). However, until the next Fed meeting in September (or later), we all will be placed in purgatory with non-stop speculation regarding the timing of the next rate increase.

The ludicrous and myopic analysis can be encapsulated by the recent article written by Pulitzer Prize-winning Fed writer Jon Hilsenrath, in his piece titled, The Great Unraveling: Fed Missteps Fueled 2016 Populist Revolt. Somehow, Hilsenrath is making the case that a group of 12 older, white people that meet eight times per year in Washington to discuss interest rate policy based on inflation and employment trends has singlehandedly created income inequality, and a populist movement leading to the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

While this Fed scapegoat explanation is quite convenient for the doom-and-gloomers (see The Fed Ate My Homework), it is way off base. I hate to break it to Mr. Hilsenrath, or other conspiracy theorists and perma-bears, but blaming a small group of boring bankers is an overly-simplistic “straw man” argument that does not address the infinite number of other factors contributing to our nation’s social and economic problems.

Ever since the bull market began in 2009, a pervasive skepticism and mistrust have kept the bull market climbing a wall of worry to all-time record levels. In the process, Hilsenrath et. al. have proliferated an inexhaustible list of myths about the Fed and its powers. Here are some of…
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A Ticket To Ride?

The Nattering Naybob and I were discussing an article called We Might Live in A Virtual Universe – But It Doesn't Really Matter. That discussion prompted TNN to write a post to explain how it all works. This is a sort of "Theory of Everything," and it may have important ramifications for your future. 

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

"If you do the math, you will soon get to the point where you have to recognize the probability of living in a real world is very slim because it is simply dwarfed by the number of existing simulations.

"From this point of view, it is more likely that our world is 20 levels deep in a vicious simulation cycle than it being the original world.

"The first time I heard this argument I got scared because the thought of living in a virtual universe is kinda…scary. However, here is the good thing: It doesn’t matter, and I’ll tell you why." - We Might Live in A Virtual Universe – But It Doesn't Really Matter

Submitted for your approval… a civilization which manages to go from cave dwelling apes, cowering in ignorance while wondering where the sun goes at night, to talking chimps basking in the sun with integrated computers on a chip in just under 200K years.  

For our purposes, imagine if you will… these talking monkeys somehow manage to survive their seemingly palpable need to dislike someone other than themselves, aka their apocalyptic idiocy which walks hand in hand with their wisdom, and natural cataclysm for another 800K years or so…. 

Following Moore's Law, in that futuristic "here and now" these beings can not only sim a universe, but digitize and dump their cranial contents and supposed divine essence into it.  After eons, robots perform the tedious physical tasks, while these ethereal beings, long for the days of yore and covet that lost carnal experience. 

And then there was light, in the form of "On Earth" a virtual ride in which many souls get their turn in the old barrel of monkeys, so to speak. Too good to be true? The devil's in the details, and as always, there's a small one printed on…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Corporate Profits Cloud U.S. Investment, Hiring Outlook (Bloomberg)

Before-tax corporate earnings fell 4.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive decline and the worst streak since the end of the recession in mid-2009, Commerce Department figures showed on Friday.

Central bankers ponder moving the goalposts (Financial Times)

Central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual Federal Reserve symposium on economics are in a challenging position.

Thought Volcker Rule Went Too Far? There’s More Coming for Banks (Bloomberg)

After years of grappling with the Dodd-Frank Act, banks will soon learn what regulators want to do next to rein in Wall Street’s risky investments.

Grim employment prospects for young people around the world (The Economist)

A NEW report from the International Labour Organisation has provided a snapshot of job prospects for young people around the world. Things have worsened this year following a period of slight improvement.

S&P 500 Earnings Decline For Fifth Consecutive Quarter (Value Walk)

With 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date for Q2 2016, 71% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% have reported sales above the mean estimate.

Here's Why High-Yield Bonds Are Much Riskier Than Most Investors Realize (Money Morning)

The high?yield bond area has been a Petri dish for misapplied financial theories and assumptions for years.

High-yield bonds are properly understood as hybrid securities that possess the characteristics of both debt and equity.

Markit Chief Economist Estimates 3rd Quarter GDP at “Just Under 1.0 Percent” (MishTalk)

Ahead of the advance (first) report of 2nd quarter GDP, Markit Chief economist Chris Williamson estimated second quarter at 1.0%.

Oil Pivoting to the Upside (Slope of Hope)

Before the open today, I noted to our members that crude oil is starting to look and

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One Million Market Beaters

Wow. If you're planning to beat the market by being an exceptional stock picker, this article is depressing.

One Million Market Beaters

Courtesy of Michael Batnick, The Irrelevant Investor

  • Uncertainty remains, but Florida is in the cross hairs.
  • What to expect today after tornado outbreak.
  • Why we’re watching Gaston closely now.

These headlines were pulled from a few articles today at You could seamlessly replace Florida, tornado, and Gaston with a stock because like the weather, markets are highly complex with countless variables that can’t fully be modeled.

In his highly entertaining book, But What If We’re Wrong, Chuck Klosterman talks about how much money has been spent trying to predict the weather:

Somebody once told me a joke about meteorology. The premise is that we’ve been trying to predict the weather since 3000 BC. The yearly budget for the National Weather Service is $1 billion…Even a conservative estimate places the annual amount of money spent on meteorology at somewhere around $5 billion. And as a result of this investment, our weather can be correctly predicted around 66 percent of the time. As a society, we can go two out of three. Yet if some random dude simply says, “I think the weather tomorrow will be the same as the weather today,” he will be right 33 percent of the time. He can go one for three. So we’ve invested hundreds of billions of dollars and countless hours into meteorological research, with the net effect of becoming twice as accurate as some bozo who looks out the window and points at the sky.

The Wall Street Journal just reported that U.S. mutual funds spend more than $300 million every year to send investors written reports. This is an astonishingly large number, but it’s peanuts compared to how much they spend trying to beat their benchmark. And while the net effect of becoming twice as accurate as some bozo might be true with the weather, it’s the opposite with investing.

The chart below from Dimensional Funds shows that all a bozo has to do to beat the majority of professionals is buy an index fund.

index dimensional

There are a number of explanations as to why funds underperform, from…
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Next time you hear “Bond Liquidity Crisis”, show them this


Next time you hear “Bond Liquidity Crisis”, show them this

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

I’m out all day at a Dimensional Funds applied investment workshop in midtown but I wanted to check in with something cool we’re discussing…

David Plecha, the global head of fixed income at DFA, doesn’t believe in the bond market “liquidity crisis” meme that the newspapers like to trot out every few weeks.

Rather, he views what’s going on as an evolution and not a crisis or a problem – the fixed income market is about 20 years behind the stock market’s evolution but headed in the right direction. Peer to peer trading between buyside shops is the future and the new source of liquidity. These days, buyers can also be sellers and anyone can submit a quote for bids or offers.

The dealers’ role, meanwhile, is changing to more of a frequent trader rather than an inventory provider / middleman.

What’s actually going on is that volume in the bond market is high, back to where it was pre-2008 crisis. This is counter to the narrative you typically hear from disgruntled dealer desks and reporters.

What is very different is that dealer inventories have shrunk considerably. This is because of capital requirement rules like Basel III that force banks to be less leveraged and to carry less risk. Banks have responded by shedding inventory and turning over their supply of bonds more frequently. Trading velocity is way up. Dealers are buying and turning around quickly to make a sale.

Here’s what it looks like:

Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 2.20.48 PM

The next time you hear someone say “bond liquidity crisis”, show them this.

Okay, see you tomorrow.


Dimensional Fund Advisors
August 2016

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

How Uber Lost More Than $1 Billion in the First Half of 2016 (NY Times)

Uber has upended the transportation industry in the span of a few years. But the ride-hailing company has been losing a lot of money while doing so.

Dollar Edges Lower Before Yellen as European Stocks Fluctuate (Bloomberg)

Caution prevailed in financial markets before a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, with the dollar paring a weekly advance, while European stocks and U.S. futures fluctuated.

Japan July consumer prices post biggest annual fall in three yrs (Reuters)

Japan's consumer prices fell in July by the most in more than three years as more firms delayed price hikes due to weak consumption, keeping the central bank under pressure to expand an already massive stimulus program.

California Aims Retirement Plan at Those Whose Jobs Offer None (NY Times)

California is preparing to create a mandatory state-run retirement plan for an estimated six million workers at companies that do not now offer any retirement benefits. The move could make California the first state to require companies to take part in such a system.

Mexico Said to Consider Tax Cut for Private Equity Investors (Bloomberg)

Mexico is evaluating ways to aid private equity investors and spur growth in the industry, including a reduction in the tax that funds pay to list companies on the stock exchange, according to four people with knowledge of the proposals.

China urges Japan to be 'constructive' at G20 summit (Reuters)

Japan should play a "constructive" role at the upcoming G20 summit in the Chinese city of Hangzhou because cooperation is in the interests of all parties, China's top diplomat told a visiting Japanese envoy.

Why Sears Had to Borrow Another $300 Million From Its CEO (Fortune)

The hedge fund manager will provide additional debt financing of $300 million to the beleaguered retail

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Zero Hedge

China Turmoil Looms As Traders Bet On Post-G-20 Yuan Tumble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Something is different this time. For the last few years, China has 'ensured stability' in the Yuan ahead of major geopolitical events - no matter what - only to let things slide back into turmoiling after. Ahead of this weekend's G-20, however, and amid notably deteriorating fundamentals (and an increasingly hawkish-sounding Fed), China has let the Yuan tumble in the last week... and traders are piling into bets on post-G-20 weakness to continue.

As Bloomberg notes, history shows that the Chinese currency usually strengthens ahead of major political or economic event...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Apple Must Pay Billions for Tax Breaks in Ireland, E.U. Orders (NY Times)

The European Union on Tuesday ordered Ireland to collect $14.5 billion in unpaid taxes from Apple, a record penalty that worsened tensions with the United States over the bloc’s crackdown on sweetheart deals with global multinationals.


more from Paul


European Ruling against Apple and Ireland Vindicates Brexit

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

European Ruling against Apple and Ireland Vindicates Brexit

Taxation is bad enough: two consenting parties arrange a mutually-beneficial exchange, and an interloping third party demands a cut.

What compounded injustice then for a fourth party to enter the scene: a super-state/super-bandit who insists that the shakedown wasn’t big enough. No, the victim must hand over more to the lesser thief, even against the recipient’s will and in spite of his protest!

Thou Shalt Not… Not Steal

Ireland must join the rest of the Union in bleeding the private sector dry.


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Phil's Favorites

Do You Believe There is Food Price Deflation? Mish vs. Consensus

Courtesy of Mish.

Here’s the question of the day: Do you believe there is food price deflation?

The reason I ask is the Wall Street Journal reports Food Price Deflation Cheers Consumers, Hurts Farmers, Grocers and Restaurants.

The U.S. is on track this year to post the longest stretch of falling food prices in more than 50 years, a streak that is cheering shoppers at the checkout line but putting a financial strain on farmers and grocery stores.

The trend is being fueled by an excess supply of dairy products, meat, grains and other staples and less demand for many of those same products from China and elsewhere due to the strong dollar. Lower energy costs...

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Chart School

Little Change

Courtesy of Declan.

I'm waiting for bears to step in and reverse the nascent breakout but it hasn't happened yet. The intraday range was tight and the change relative to yesterday was small. This left little to add.

The S&P still has three 'sell' triggers in MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX to work off before the rally resumes.

The Nasdaq is creating a mini-bear flag, although confirmation will require a single day loss of at least 1%. It has a more solid technical picture than the S&P.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

US Dollar/Yen testing important support zone

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar/Yen is facing a trio of potential support lines at this time with few people bullish the US$/Yen at Stocktwits. What happens at this potential support zone, could well impact the Risk On trade from now until year end.


The trend in the US$/Yen remains down for the past few months, as the YEN has been stronger than the US$. The US$/YEN remains inside of a steep falling channel over the past 10-months.

The bottom of this steep falling channel and two ot...

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Swing trading portfolio -week of August 29th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust


Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg


Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...

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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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