Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

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  1. phil

    AMZN + 12% in pre-market!  

    Amazon(AMZN) plans to 'significantly' increase investment in video as it goes to war with Netflix

    Here's who CLF traders can thank but, will it last? 

    LOL – here's a reason to buy the AAPL watch – 5 min FX binary trades!  

    Wow, there has to be a fortune to be made there – selling those trades to others – look at the spread! 

    And let's not forget that watches are how we communicate with our self-driving, talking cars:

    I can't wait for this conversation:

    • Driver:  "Take me to Oak Ridge."
    • Car:  "OK, I will drive you off the next Bridge."

    This chart makes me doubly sad because I have a wife and two teenage daughters doing the spending!  angry

    GDP – Yuch

    At least I can have hope for the future:

    Junk Economics: Michael Hudson Rages "Wall Street Has Taken Over The Economy.. & Is Draining It"

    Why Is JPM's "Quant Guru" Suddenly Worried About The "Endgame"

    Why The US Output Gap Means The 10 Year Is Going Below 1%

    Automating Ourselves To Unemployment

    Earnings "Beats" & The Warning In Today's GDP Data

    SEC Begins Crack Down On Non-GAAP Accounting Gimmicks

    Valeant(VRX) might throw the entire pharmaceutical industry under the bus

    China and Russia are boosting their military cooperation to try to contain the US


    Macau March Tour Group Visitors Fall 36.2% y/y. March tour group traveler arrivals fall to 564,000, lowest since March 2011, citing govt data.

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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The U.S. Is in the Midst of a Historic Bull Market (Bloomberg)

A bull market that has been derided as fake, doomed and history’s most-hated just earned a new title: the second-longest ever.

Dear Prudence – A Warning In Today’s GDP Growth Data (Value Walk)

While there is no doubt that patience is a virtue for investors, exercising prudence is equally important. In our prior article “Limiting Losses”, we examined how taking prudent measures, at certain times, can enhance your ability to create wealth over the long-term for your clients. Despite basic math and historical evidence proving its usefulness, investors typically ignore prudence, especially when it is required most. The siren’s song of a rallying market inevitably proves too compelling for many investors.

GDP Growth Data

U.S. Fed buys $8 billion of mortgage bonds, sells none (Reuters)

The Federal Reserve bought $7.96 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities in the week from Apr. 21 to Apr. 27, compared with $7.407 billion purchased the previous week, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.

How Companies Use Strategically Timed Announcements to Confuse the Market (HBR)

On October 23, 1996, the day AT&T announced that John Walter, an industry outsider, would be named CEO, the company’s market valuation dropped by $4 billion. In his book Searching for a Corporate Savior, Rakesh Khurana at Harvard Business School noted that this negative market reaction became a self-fulfilling prophecy, causing the board of directors and other top executives to lose confidence in Walter, and leading to his dismissal only nine months after assuming office.

U.S. Corporate Profits on Pace for Third Straight Decline (Wall Street Journal)

U.S. corporate profits, weighed down by the energy slump and slowing global growth, are set to decline for the third straight quarter in the longest slide in earnings since the financial crisis.

End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles for Millennials (Bloomberg)

Turning 30 just got a lot scarier.

This Economy Isn't Too Disappointing (Bloomberg View)

Were you disappointed by

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    Thanks, I'll post it for you -

    flighthopper  at cs dot com

The New Religion


Move over God, the religion Facebook is in.


The New Religion

Courtesy of 

Facebook now has 1.65 billion users spending an average of 50 minutes a day on its platforms (FB, Messenger, Instagram, Whatsapp, etc). The amount of time spent in devotion of our online selves now rivals the amount of time humanity spends in worship of the major religions. Can the Catholic Church claim a billion and a half people doing anything for almost an hour a day in service to it? Can Islam? Buddhism may come close, or Hinduism, but probably not really, should you calculate the actual minutes of the day and the actual amount of worshippers.

But we love ourselves and sharing facets of ourselves with the world. Projecting the Us that’s fit for the consumption of others. Or some better, smarter, richer, sexier version of ourselves. It’s just a snapshot or a line of text, we have all the control in the world when we reveal in small doses.

Facebook’s market cap is $330 billion as a result of its explosive open to new highs this morning. It’s trading at more than 13x sales and is now one of the most valuable companies in the history of planet earth. You can say it shouldn’t be for reasons A, B, and C – and these would be rational opinions. But has any company before ever monopolized this much of humanity’s time and attention, en masse, around the world? Will any subsequent company be able to do so any time soon?

The Super Bowl is the most widely watched event in the world, and it’s because roughly 100 million people watch it. Facebook wouldn’t get out of bed for that kind of nightly audience. And think of the dollar amounts that the Super Bowl commands for thirty-second ads. Facebook’s usage is more than 10X the Super Bowl and it’s 24 / 7 / 365.

And here’s the best part – no one expects to be paid anything to create content for the platform. We’re the football players. We’re the announcers. We’re the cheerleaders. We do it for free, out of the sheer joy we experience from the exposition of ourselves. And we never get bored of it.

Value that. Weekly Trading Webinar – 04-27-16 Weekly Trading Webinar – 04-27-16

One of Phil's strategies made $1,500 in 30 minutes during yesterday's Live Trading Webinar!

(Don't miss next week's webinar in real-time. Get LIVE access to Phil's Weekly Webinars by joining us at Phil's Stock World — click here!)

Major Topics:
00:01:13 Tempting Tuesday – Cash! Cash, cash, cash and more cash!! Trade Idea
00:08:14 Trade Ideas
00:14:47 AAPL: ’13 ’14 ’15 stock of the year. Product Cycle. Charts. Trade Ideas
00:34:14 AAPL: Spread. Trade Idea
00:38:36 AAPL: Long Term Portfolio
00:42:21 Checking on the Markets: YG, SI, DOW, NASDAQ, TWTR, RUSSEL, NIKKEI, AAPL, BA, CL, WYNN, AMZN, TSLA, NG, VIX, TLT, XLF
00:46:20 Top Trade: TWTR
00:54:14 FOMC Meeting
00:59:21 GSPC comparing to UUP
01:01:48 Trade Ideas
01:14:26 Checking on the Markets after FOMC Meeting: YG, SI, DOW, NASDAQ, TWTR, RUSSEL, NIKKEI, AAPL, BA, CL, WYNN, AMZN, TSLA, NG, VIX, TLT
01:17:58 FOMC
01:23:32 More Trade Ideas….

QOTD: Dan Loeb on the Coming Washout


QOTD: Dan Loeb on the Coming Washout

Courtesy of 

So where do we go from here? As most investors have been caught offsides at some or multiple points over the past eight months, the impulse to do little is understandable. We are of a contrary view that volatility is bringing excellent opportunities, some of which we discuss below. We believe that the past few months of increasing complexity are here to stay and now is a more important time than ever to employ active portfolio management to take advantage of this volatility. There is no doubt that we are in the first innings of a washout in hedge funds and certain strategies.

Long-time readers know that I’m a big fan of Dan Loeb (Third Point) and his investor commentary. He’s razor-sharp and says what he thinks. You can read the entire letter to his investors at the link above.

About a thousand hedge funds closed their doors last year and almost all of the name-brand big funds have started off the year with huge losses or redemptions or both. The fact that Loeb thinks it is only the first innings of this is telling. You can get some more context here:

Loeb’s Third Point Says Hedge Funds in ‘Catastrophic’ Period (Bloomberg)

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The market is going to suck for the next 20 years, and you're going to have to double your life savings (Business Insider)

The "golden age" of stock market returns is over.

mck scenarios1

Bank of Japan Keeps Policy Unchanged; Yen Rises (Wall Street Journal)

The Bank of Japan on Thursday brushed aside calls for additional stimulus despite new data that showed prices falling, a decision that quickly sent the yen up and Japanese stocks down.

The US economy was weaker than expected in the first quarter (Business Insider)

The US economy slowed more than expected in the first quarter.

How to Protect Yourself from Deutsche Bank’s Gold and Silver Market Rigging (Wall Street Examiner)

Deutsche Bank AG  just can’t seem to get out of its own way.

Currency Trading's 20% Drop Raises Specter of Flash-Crash Future (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest financial market has shrunk by 20 percent during the past year and a half.

ECB's Nowotny can't say exactly when inflation will pick up (Reuters)

The European Central Bank's current policy aimed at spurring inflation should have the desired effect in the second half of the year, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Thursday, but it is not possible to say exactly when.

What’s concerning about the GDP numbers — economist reactions (Market Watch)

Here are reactions to the news to the U.S. economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter.

Why Risky Behavior Is Essential For Success As An Entrepreneur And Investor (Forbes)

“We should all jump off cliffs as often as possible,” advisesGordon Ritter, a founder and general partner of Silicon Valley venture capital firm Emergence Capital. Ritter gave the keynote speech at Princeton University’s Keller Center’s Innovation Forum in February and that was some of his advice to aspiring entrepreneurs. The Forum is designed to showcase research that has the potential to be commercialized. Teams compete to present their research in three-minute pitches to an audience that includes angel investors, venture capitalists, staff, faculty, students and members of Princeton’s entrepreneurial community.

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    Consumer optimism about the economy is waning, and small-business-owner sentiment is giving off recession vibes. That’s how different surveys are now mucking up the rosy scenario.<p>Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, released today, added another dimension. It dropped four points in the week ending …

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Good morning and wheeeeeee!  

    Ah what a silly market, constantly begging for free money and throws a tantrum when it doesn't get it.  

    As we expected, the BOJ did not save the World and /NKD dropped from 17,600 to 16,400 – too bad we didn't have the balls to play that one!  I'm kind of liking /NKD long here (16,400) for the bounce as the Dollar is bottoming at 93.50 and the Yen is topping at 92.50, which is already over the 2.5% line:

    The same can be said for Dow (/YM) 17,800, S&P (/ES 2,070), Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,400 and Russell (/TF) 1,140 – we can play these lines bullish (long the laggards) with tight stops below and 3 of 5 must be over to play the slower 2 and out if any 3 of 5 are under – simple rules.

    Watch EuroStoxx 3,000 as well – if that fails (I'm fairly sure we bounce first), then the markets all fail with it.

    We have GDP at 8:30 with low expectations but be very careful – for now, we're just playing for the early morning bounce off 3,000 in the EU. 

    Oil (/CL) $45.50 short can make a nice, offsetting pair trade, I expect Brent (/BZ) to be rejected at $47.50.

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation, a background in science, and an unmatched track record of accomplishments, highlighted by his ability to lead companies through times of transition and drive excellence across commercial, manufacturing and R&D platforms. In addition, fostering an ethical culture and creating opportunities for professional development have always been high priorities for Joe, and we look forward to Joe's arrival at Valeant" (Valeant names Papa CEO after he resigns from Perrigo).

"Reuters reports that Mr. Shareholder Orientation became 'well-known on Wall Street last year when Dublin-based Perrigo rebuffed a $26 billion takeover by Mylan NV, the largest-ever hostile bid decided by a shareholder vote.' Perrigo's market cap has now dropped to around $14.2 billion [now $13.9 billion] — down over 18% today alone -- making Papa look foolish for rejecting that buyout offer."

Papa’s departure comes just months after he successfully beat back a $26 billion hostile takeover bid from Mylan spearheading a campaign that ultimately persuaded shareholders to reject Mylan’s bid.

Since then, though, Perrigo has reported disappointing quarterly results and slashed its outlook (Perrigo shares tumble as CEO leaves for Valeant, guidance cut again).

While many were congratulating VRX for recruiting Papa to be its CEO, Jim Cramer wrote,

Perrigo's (PRGO) heartbreaking. How could Joe Papa, the man who was so intertwined with Perrigo for so long, the man who came on Mad Money and argued there was so much more value to the company than the price Mylan put on it — some 80 points higher than where

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Zero Hedge

Consolidated Currency Calculations

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Bruno de Landevoisin.

Contraray to what many maintain, The FED is not made up of irational, unintelligent completley clueless policy makers, who have utterly no idea what they are effecting. Let's get real, they certainly have to know exactly where their pre-calculated monetary programs are taking us.  After all, understanding the ramification of their monetary machinations is not rocket science.  The faltering economic and financial signs are everywhere for anyone to see that is actually looking.


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Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger Emails With Bill Ackman On Valeant

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Ackman’s emails with Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger on Valeant (VRX) – this is fun stuff! via WSJ

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.


Recently, Charlie said the following about Mike Pearson and Valeant: ‘Valeant is like ITT and Harold Geneen come back to life; only the guy is worse this time.’ While I have enormous respect for Charlie, I think he has...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Buffett Says Bonds Unattractive, If Not Terrible for Reinsurers (Bloomberg)

Warren Buffett, who built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. by reinvesting premiums from insurance units, said low bond yields have hurt the prospects of that strategy.

A Leak Wounded This Company. Fighting the Feds Finished It Off (Bloomberg)

The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how...

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Chart School

First Majastic Silver Wyckoff Friendly

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sometimes is just works! Wyckoff logic is excellent when all the evidence supports your view.

The traditional Wyckoff logic traders will see the Wyckoff accumulation in this stock. Notice the NetVolume divergence with price, very telling. Point and Figure chart showing off an excellent 'CAUSE', that exploded into a fantastic 'EFFECT'. Some times winning is just too easy!

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

PnF Chart, love the 'CAUSE' that was the base for the 'EFFECT'

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

NOTE: readthe...

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Phil's Favorites

Indiana Hail Mary Pass Coming Up

Courtesy of Mish.

The last possible chance for Ted Cruz to stop Donald Trump is the May 3 primary in Indiana.

Cruz is pulling out all the stops, but even if Cruz wins Indiana, he may still be too late.

The Wall Street Journal reports Ted Cruz Makes His Last Stand in Indiana.

Sen. Ted Cruz, in a last-ditch effort to derail Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, is trying to marshal support from governors, former rivals and other anti-Trump Republicans in advance of the make-or-break primary in Indiana Tuesday.

With polls showing him lagging behind the New York businessman in the Hoosier state, the Texas senator talked up the somewhat equivocal support he received from Indiana Gov. M...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100- Potentially Very Dangerous Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


This chart looks at the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 10-years.

A potential “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) topping pattern could be in play, highlighted in red.

Even if this is NOT an H&S topping pattern, the following situation has me watching Tech very closely; the index broke 5-year rising support line (A) last fall and the rally over the past couple of months has it kissing the underside of lines (A) and (B) at (1).

The NDX “Kissed” the underside of dual resistance of late and has turn...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...

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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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