Posts Tagged ‘AGU’

Put Action Portends Potential Pullback In Delta Air Lines

 

Today’s tickers: DAL, GES & AGU

DAL - Delta Air Lines, Inc. – Options on the Atlanta, Georgia-based airline were among the most actively traded as measured by volume this morning after a large block of bearish puts changed hands in the first hour of the trading session. Shares in Delta Air Lines are sliding on a down day for the broader market, trading 4.0% lower at $9.15 as of 12:10 p.m. ET. Volume in Delta options was heaviest at the Dec. $8.0 strike, where upwards of 11,500 puts traded against previously existing open interest of 3,299 contracts. It looks like 9,110 of the $8.0 strike puts traded in a block and appear to have been purchased along with the remainder of the overall volume at a premium of $0.48 per contract. The sizable stake in DAL puts may represent outright bearish positioning on the airline through the end of the calendar year, or could be a hedge to protect the value of an existing position in the underlying shares. Profits, or downside protection, kick in if shares in Delta plunge 18% from the current price of $9.15 to breach the effective breakeven point at $7.52 by December expiration. Shares in Delta Air Lines, Inc. last traded below $7.52 in November 2011.

GES - Guess?, Inc. – Bulls buying front-month calls on Wednesday afternoon ahead of Guess, Inc.’s second-quarter earnings report were crushed today after the retailer revealed declining same-store sales and lowered estimates for full-year earnings and revenue. Shares in Guess reacted to the disappointing report by dropping 20% to an intraday low of $26.73. The largest increase in September expiration call option open interest overnight was in the $36 strike contracts, which rose by 904 lots to 1,406 contracts. A review of time and sales from Wednesday afternoon shows the purchase of approximately 850 of the Sep. $35 calls for a premium of $0.95 apiece just after 12:20 p.m. ET. Less than 24…
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Dell Call Options Active in Afternoon Trading

Today’s tickers: DELL, AGU, EEM, GERN, SPY, IP, SFD & CHS

DELL - Dell, Inc. – Speculation that Michael Dell, Chairman and CEO of Dell, Inc., may buy the computer company or pay a special dividend lifted shares of the world’s third-largest PC maker this afternoon and spurred demand for out-of-the-money call options. Dell’s shares rallied nearly 3.00% today to touch an intraday high of $14.14, but are currently up 1.50% at $13.94 as of 3:05 p.m. Options traders honed in on October $14 strike calls, exchanging more than 23,100 of those contracts by 3:00 p.m., versus previously existing open interest of 10,783 calls at that strike. It looks like roughly 11,800 of those call options were purchased at an average premium of $0.21 a-pop. Call buyers make money if Dell’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $14.21 by October expiration on Friday. Other optimistic signaling on the stock involved the sale of some 2,100 in-the-money puts at the October $14 strike where investors received an average premium of $0.34 per contract. Options implied volatility is up 15.2% to stand at 41.52% with less than one hour remaining before the final bell.

AGU - Agrium, Inc. – Shares of Canada’s second-largest fertilizer producer rallied as much as 3.2% today to reign in an intraday high of $85.66 after corn futures jumped to a near two-year high. Agrium was upgraded to ‘sector outperformer’ from ‘sector performer’ at CIBC World Markets where analysts upped their target share price on the company to $100.00 from $70.00. One options trader was prepared for the bullish move in the Agrium’s shares and opted to book profits, as well as extend optimism on the stock in the November contract. It looks like the investor purchased 10,000 calls at the November $85 strike for an average premium…
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Trade Rewind: Anatomy of Our Winning Ag Plays

A lot of mail we get from people interested in our service had the question: "Are option trades as easy to follow as stock trades?"

I think the quick answer to that is yes for straight options and no for spreads but like many things that are worth doing, they are worth learning.  I'm going to start a new teaching series here so we can analyze some trades after the fact as practice may make perfect but it also pays to go over our winners as well as our mistakes as finding out where we went right is as important as finding out where we went wrong.  Trading has, of late, become much less about the merits of the particular stock and more about the timing of your entries as good stocks and bad stocks can move up and down 5% on any given day.

One of the things we like to do is watch for overbought sectors to short.  We had been taking pot-shots at POT all week as it was really running away with itself and on Thursday I discussed with members how the whole sector was getting overbought and, in Friday morning's post I said: "I advocate more shorts into the open if they insist on this ridiculous pre-market pump (down just .25% at 9 am), especially in the over-hyped Agriculture industry, which could not be up for stupider reasons," which neatly summarized my outlook on the sector. 

 

We got exactly the pump action we wanted in the morning and I sent out a 10:34 Alert to Members, sensing that we were topping out on the run in the indexes and I recommended the following plays:

Big disconnect with DBA and AGU, MOS and POT now.  It’s a little crazy to do a day trade but the POT $115 puts have .20 in premium at $6.10 and you can sell the $110 puts for $2 if it turns against you.  I like the June $90 puts on them for $1.95, looking for $1 and rolling up if it goes the other way at .85 per $5.

AGU July $40 puts are $1.05.  MOS $50 puts are a fun day trade for .10 but you need to get 3/4 out at .15 and leave the 1/4 or 1/2 out at .20 and


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Zero Hedge

Eight Reasons Why The Dutch Election Matters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Saxo Bank's Martin O'Rourke via TradingFloor.com,

  • The Netherlands' general election takes place on March 15
  • Geert Wilders far-right Party for Freedom expected to emerge first
  • Wilders path to premiership likely to be blocked by moderate coalition
  • Support for Wilders' anti-immigration, anti-EU stance fits populist narrative
  • Key lessons for Europe ahead of French and German elections...


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Phil's Favorites

Want a stronger economy? Give immigrants a warm welcome

 

Want a stronger economy? Give immigrants a warm welcome

Courtesy of Kevin Shih, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

?Immigrants have long been a scapegoat when economies are sputtering, jobs are being lost or security is a concern.

President Donald Trump’s planned wall along the Mexican border, for example, is premised on the notion that immigrants are pouring across the border (they’re not), ta...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed may raise interest rates ‘fairly soon’ thanks to economy’s continued growth (The Washington Post)

The Federal Reserve said the economy’s continued growth might persuade it to raise its benchmark interest rate “fairly soon,” according to minutes from its policy meeting released Wednesday, even as it acknowledged that the ambitious policies proposed by the Trump administration could have unforeseen effects on the U.S. economy.

The Dow Is More than 2000 P...



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ValueWalk

Undervalued Hawaiian Holdings Well Positioned For Further Growth

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of the cheapest stocks in our all All Investable – Stock Screener and the cheapest airline stock is Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HA).

Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (Hawaiian) is the parent company for its subsidiary, Hawaiian Airlines, Inc.

Hawaiian Airlines is now in its 88th year of continuous service, Hawaiian is Hawai’i’s biggest and longest-serving airline, as well as the largest provider of passenger air service from its primary visitor markets on the U.S. Mainland. Hawaiian offers non-stop service to Hawai’i from more U.S. gateway cities (11) than any other airline, along with service from Japan, South Korea, China, Australia, New Zealand, American Samoa and Tahiti. Hawaii...



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Chart School

Market Pause

Courtesy of Declan.

Nothing really to add to yesterday. Markets took minor hits, but there was little intraday spread. The biggest spread was in the Russell 2000 which was underperforming heading into today's session. It reversed most of yesterday's gains, but it has some way to go before it begins challenging the breakout


The New Lows and Highs is in a secular bullish pattern, and it will take continued pressure in spike lows to generate a sustained sell off - none of which is happening here.

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Quiz; What would you do with this opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at an asset that has had a rough couple of years. The Power of the Pattern feels a nice risk/reward pattern is in play.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

What would you do with this pattern? Long, Short or Avoid at (1).

We would like to hear how you feel this asset should be traded at (1). Please send an email to ...



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Digital Currencies

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance of objectivity, and not actually objective, let me give you some background. 

The Obama administration enacted a law known as the Fiduciary Rule, as per Investopedia

The Department of Labor’s definition of a fiduciary demands that advisors act in the best interests of their clients, and to put their clients' interests above their own. It leaves no room for advisors to conce...



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Members' Corner

President Trump's Analyst?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's time for Tuesdays With Trump...

 


Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
  • Macro Demographic Impact; Fake News; The President's Analyst
  • Pudzer Pulls Out; Putin Depends On; Operational Vacuum; C...


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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By Jean Luc

These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By 

….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence fro...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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