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Trade Rewind: Anatomy of Our Winning Ag Plays

A lot of mail we get from people interested in our service had the question: "Are option trades as easy to follow as stock trades?"

I think the quick answer to that is yes for straight options and no for spreads but like many things that are worth doing, they are worth learning.  I'm going to start a new teaching series here so we can analyze some trades after the fact as practice may make perfect but it also pays to go over our winners as well as our mistakes as finding out where we went right is as important as finding out where we went wrong.  Trading has, of late, become much less about the merits of the particular stock and more about the timing of your entries as good stocks and bad stocks can move up and down 5% on any given day.

One of the things we like to do is watch for overbought sectors to short.  We had been taking pot-shots at POT all week as it was really running away with itself and on Thursday I discussed with members how the whole sector was getting overbought and, in Friday morning's post I said: "I advocate more shorts into the open if they insist on this ridiculous pre-market pump (down just .25% at 9 am), especially in the over-hyped Agriculture industry, which could not be up for stupider reasons," which neatly summarized my outlook on the sector. 

 

We got exactly the pump action we wanted in the morning and I sent out a 10:34 Alert to Members, sensing that we were topping out on the run in the indexes and I recommended the following plays:

Big disconnect with DBA and AGU, MOS and POT now.  It’s a little crazy to do a day trade but the POT $115 puts have .20 in premium at $6.10 and you can sell the $110 puts for $2 if it turns against you.  I like the June $90 puts on them for $1.95, looking for $1 and rolling up if it goes the other way at .85 per $5.

AGU July $40 puts are $1.05.  MOS $50 puts are a fun day trade for .10 but you need to get 3/4 out at .15 and leave the 1/4 or 1/2 out at .20 and 1/2 out at .30 if you get that lucky but consider the .10 money down the drain most likely.  Sept $40 puts are $2.75 and we can sell the June $45 puts, now $1.50, if they fall to $1.25 and then use that to roll up $5.

The POT $115 puts were about as easy a win as you could get as POT fell from $109.20 at the time of the Alert to $106.60 just 90 minutes later.  Since the puts carried very little premium, they flew to $8.10 at noon (up 33%) pulled back to $7.40 (up 21%) and then headed up to $9.60 (up 57%).  We continued to short the sector through lunch and I called all done with POT at 1:25 and we flipped bullish on the market in general at 2:15 when we played for the infamous "stick save," which we got.  Unlike the wild May puts, the June $90 puts went nowhere and finished at $2 (up .05) but, to be fair, they did hit $2.25 before 1pm and $2.30 after I called out of POT so a quick 15% was there to be had.  We didn't take Junes for a day-trade though, as I said in the Alert, we intended it as en entry and we are looking to improve the position by rolling it to higher strikes.

AGU was also very cooperative as our entry came with the stock at $49.29 and they topped out at $49.50 a few minutes later (giving us good option entries) and they fell $2 over the course of the day but finished at $48.18 on the bounce.  Like the June POT puts, the July AGU puts ran up more than 15% to $1.25 but finished the day at $1.15, up a dime.  Again, we aren't day-trading the longer contracts and it's really no different than simply shorting the stock except I risk only $1.05 to do so, tying up much less cash and taking much less risk than a short play.

The MOS $50 puts are a good example of how we scale out of a winning trade.  At .10, it was pretty much an all or nothing entry as the trade would either work or it wouldn't.  This is something I call a "craps roll" trade, which means you shouldn't play more money on the trade than you are willing to put down on a craps table.  At $10 per contract, it's easy enough to control but, of course, if your fees are more than a penny per contract, you already need to make a nickel just to make the trade worth the bother

We had really good timing on MOS as it made it's high of the day at 10:35, and you can see many of our well-trained, patient bidders got in at .05 (in our Strategy Section we discuss the great benefit of low-bidding entries).  Whether in at .05 or .10, it was Mission Accomplished just before noon as we hit .15 (up 50%) and then to .20 (100%) and on to .30 (200%) at our exit point in the afternoon.  We do these trades for fun but that doesn't mean there's not a method to the madness.  If we buy 20 contracts at .10 ($200) and sell 15 at .15 ($225), we lock in a 12% profit and we're letting 5 contracts ride for free.  Hitting our .30 target for the trade pays $150 for the last 5 contracts, profiting $175 on a $200 gamble (87%).  Now you can see why we call it a craps roll

The higher-risk road was more rewarding of course, holding out for .20 but, since we went straight from .10 to .20, you can see why there was a flurry of selling at .20 as we hit our target at noon.  On a $100 play (10 contracts), that would have put the $100 back in your pocket and left 5 contracts to ride.  When those hit their .30 target you get the same $150 for selling the last 5 and that's a very nice 150% profit.  Note that we DO NOT do these plays every day, usually we do some day trading during expiration weeks but they are fun and they do take practice and review in order to recognize the opportunities as they come along.

The final Ag trade from that alert was the MOS Sept $40 puts at $2.75, now $2.80.  Those are a potential spread so, as I noted above, more complicated than a straight buy of the stock as you have to watch two option positions and keep track of their relationship but learning how to hedge your option plays is the most valuable skill you will ever master in the markets.  While we have lots of fun with our day trades, in this market environment we prefer to hedge but that we practice every single day – it's the day-trading we need workshops on!

At 10:52, as I continued to scan the Ag sector for high fliers that were due for a fall, I had a trade idea for MOO saying to Members: "MOO $35 puts just .15 with stock at $35.09 (up .70).  Craps roll money only!"  That went very well as we were just off the highs of MOO at $35.02 (hey, that's very Dr. Seuss sounding!) and they were kind enough to plunge all the way down to $34.32 at noon.  That rocketed the $35 puts to .75 (up 400%) and they finished the day at .52 (up 240%), so that's better than a craps table!

The reason we concentrated on the Ag sector on Friday is we had a unique opportunity, on expiration day, to focus on a group we thought was over-extended and ripe for a fall and, for a change, the markets were cooperating and making a general downtrend that made it difficult for our high-fliers to fight against.  As I often say, I'm not a technical trader, I'm a fundamental trader who uses technicals for entries so there is usually an underlying premise to our trades that goes beyond the fact that a couple of sqiggly lines crossed on a chart.  Like any good hunters, we followed the herd around and set our sites on some easy targets to pick off.  While this may seem like an easy day, a lot of preparation goes into it and trading like this takes a great deal of practice.  Fortunately, there are many good paper trading systems out there where you can practice, and that makes your "education" much less expensive than it was for many of us, who learned the hard way.

Once you understand the logic of options trading, it can be just as comfortable as stock trading but it does take hard work.  People do ask me why I don't pick more stocks and I will point out that EVERY pick I make is a stock pick.  There are underlying stocks to all these trades.  You could straight short the above plays and make 5% here or there on the same day trades but those are the same trades that we made 15-400% on trading options with far less capital at risk – isn't that worth learning more about? 

At 11:28, for example, our Ags were moving well but the Dow was holding up so I put up the following trade idea for members: "DIA – The May $84 puts have little premium.  In at .55, stop at .45, look for .75+."  At the time, DIA was at $83.58 and the ETF fell to $82.93 at noon so a quick .35 could have been made shorting the stock but those puts flew up to $1.10 (up 100%) without a pullback over the same 32 minutes and were s high as $1.70 (up 210%) as the Dow spiked down just after 3pm.  Using the option you actually make MORE money than you would had you committed $82.93 to a short sale and a 100 lot contract at .55 cost $55, which is the most you can lose on the trade no matter how high the Dow goes.  Options can be a useful tool, not just for leveraging profits but for managing risk but it does require study and practice to use them properly.

We played the DIA once more into the close.  At 2:15 my comment to Members was: "Playing for the stick with DIA $82 calls at .82.  Stop if we blow 8,270."  That trade did not go well as we blew 8,270 just a 17 minutes later at 2:32 but a disciplined stop allowed the trade to be exited at .78 on the trigger (see above chart).  Taking the quick loss allowed us to get back in at a lower price.   At 2:54, we went back in the same trade at .52 and we were rewarded with a very nice run back to .93 (up 60%) at the close but we were happy to take a small profit off our net (including the original loss) off the table.  That is how a good trading discipline can turn a loser into a winner.  We lost .06 (always remember to include trading costs) on round one and that made our round two entry net .58.  Add another .02 trading cost and we're looking to do just a bit better than .60 and we've saved the trade. 

This is, of course, better than doubling down as we're not increasing our risk.  Had we rode out the first round from .82 to .52 and doubled down, we'd have an average entry of .67, a 10% higher break-even point than using stops, even accounting for the extra trading costs and, we had less at risk so had we hit our next stop out at .40, we would have lost net .27 x 2 (as we doubled our exposure) vs 1 x .18 using the stops.  The theme of our educational posts is "Plan the Trade/Trade the Plan" and working out this kind of math BEFORE you initiate a trade is the key to making the right decisions once you are in the middle of it.

Also keep in mind that we do not advocate buying options very often.  We use them for leverage in situation like we had on Friday but, generally, options are things we sell to suckers who are willing to pay us huge premiums because they think they know what a stock is going to do over some period of time.  This is why most people have bad experiences with options – the only thing we know for an absolute certainty about options is that the premium you pay will go to zero on expiration day.  THAT is an ABSOLUTE fact so, for the most part, we SELL premium and we try not to buy it.  You will notice the common denominator to our successful trades on Friday was that they had very low premiums.  We were not paying extra to take those risks so being just a little bit right was enough.  We were just as right on the June POT puts and the Sept MOS puts but they paid very little.  Why?  PREMIUMS!

So there's the big trick to understanding options.  Unlike a stock, you have a specific clock on your positions that winds down and costs you money every day and that can get very nasty when the market doesn't do what you want.  That's why we sell them!  You may think GOOG is underpriced at $390 and I may agree with you but the trick in options is do we think it's worth $14.50 for the June $390 calls?  If you buy them, then Google has to get to $404.50 by June 19th just for you to get your $14.50 back.  If I sell them to you though, if GOOG hits $420 by that date (up less than 10%), I'll be paying you a 100% profit.  So I would not sell the GOOG calls but I also wouldn't buy them because, logically, if I by them 12 months in a row, GOOG must gain $174 (44%) over 12 months for me to just break even. 

On the other hand, if I own GOOG, or a proxy for GOOG, like the 2011 $270 calls at $145.60 ($25 of premium, 17%), then If I sell $14.50 a month worth of calls for the 18 months I have to sell, I will collect $261 – 80% more than I pay for the long call!  Of course, there is a lot that can happen in between and, as I said, option spreads are certainly more complicated than owning stocks but isn't learning to improve your risk/reward ratio by 2-300% worth the effort?

 


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  1. dear phil
    I have 20% BAC June 14 callers at $.80 against  underlying 2011 7.5 leaps. I tend to think -but I don’t know why -that the financials will have short term see-saw action. What additional callers do you recommend if that is the case?


  2. >>>if I own GOOG, or a proxy for GOOG, like the 2011 $270 calls at $145.60 ($25 of premium, 17%), then If I sell $14.50 a month worth of calls for the 18 months I have to sell, I will collect $261 – 80% more than I pay for the long call!  Of course, there is a lot that can happen in between and, as I said, option spreads are certainly more complicated than owning stocks but isn’t learning to improve your risk/reward ratio by 2-300% worth the effort?<<< 
     
    I would love to learn more about this strategy. It suddenly clicked for me although there are a few points needing clearing up. 
    For instance, would it be wise to buy put contracts for protection?
    Iddy.


  3.  Also is there an optimum in the money strike price to purchase. My tendency would be to buy the one with the most intrinsic value with the most open interest…
    Iddy


  4. Phil
    Your logic not only makes sense, but  it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!


  5.  Phil,

    Another excellent teaching article – when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you!

    I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn’t have was enough understanding. The familiarity of  ideas through repetition,  re-working,  revision – over time – the variation, the pulling out of implications – it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student  - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure.
     
    I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better – fitter, healthier.  Actually mostly it makes
    me happy to think about the trade and trading options.

    You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn’t value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

     
     


  6.  Phil,

    My question on the GOOG example is – given that we can make 80% more by selling premium on the long call after 18 months than the cost of the long call what is to be done after the 18 months are up?

    Do you exercise?


  7. Redfern, with a stock like GOOG (no dividend, high priced) there is no reason to exercise, you would roll the long call as well.   The cost of the roll depends on what happened with the underlying.   If GOOG was flat, rolling the Jan 11 270s --> Jan 12 270s might cost $17 or so (the difference between the 2010s and 2011s now); If GOOG rose over the next year and half, the Jan 11 $270s might be rolled to the Jan 12 4290s for free; if the stock fell but you wanted to keep the trade on you might pay a bit to roll it down and out in order to keep your positional relationship.   Even though the individual legs expire, there is no reason that you can’t keep the trade open indefinitely.


  8. Good Morning!

    BAC/Drum - Whenever in doubt, sell premium but there was no good reason for BAC’s sell-off on Friday so don’t go crazy.  If you sold the June $14s at .80 and they are now .34, step one is take your .46 profit off the table.  Then, considering you have 18 months left to sell premim and you need to cover $4.33 on the leap, that’s .24 per month so selling just 1/3 of the June $12 at .80 gets you off to a good start.  If we head lower, then you can sell 1/3 the $11s before they fall below $1.

    Puts/Iddyp – You can buy puts for protection but, of course, you are betting against yourself.  This is why I prefer an overall index protection against many hedged positions – because it’s possible to win your GOOG posiition without losing on your Dow positions (as we hedge the hedges as well).  When you buy puts against the same bullish position, there is no possible outcome other than lowering your profits.  I’ll be happy to go into more details if you remind me after hours this week.  As to optimum – there’s no such general thing as it always depends on your outlook for the stock over time.  In GOOG’s case, I selected a very deep strike because I want very little premium and I’m very confident that this is a bottom I can live with (meaning I’d be happy to spend more to add to and improve my position if it heads lower from here).   As long as you really intend to hold the leap, open interest is not a big factor.  I’m not buying a GOOG 2011 and paying $25 in premium with a $2.50 bid/ask spread because I intend to go in and out of it.  I would not take a poisition like that at all if I wasn’t better than 75% confident that the stock would rise more than my $25 premium and put me 100% in the money so my extrinsic would not be a factor.

    Thanks Gel!  That’s nice to hear.  8-)

    Thanks Red too!  Gee, I guess I should write more articles like this…

    GOOG/Red – Oh that’s just bonus money!  Isn’t that nice, the play can be so profitable that the intrinsic value you retain is a bonus that I forgot to mention!  I wouldn’t exercise GOOG but it’s not very expensive to roll yourself to another 12 months and keep going.  Let’s say you sold the Jan $210s, which are now $185.  As we get closer to Jan we decide to roll out to the next year.  If you already collected $180 in premium sales, this posiiton is just money in the bank but, by rolling to the 2011 $270s, it’s money in the bank we can make another $260 on for the next 18 months so we would do the roll and drop $40 in our pockets and just keep selling premiums.

    And what Eph said (I really have to learn to read down before I answer!).


  9. Good Morning Phil & all


  10. Asia Markets :    Monday, May 18, 2009
    (The following is from WSJ; please cross check with other sources to confirm.)   

    Nikkei Average*                              9038.69    -226.33    -2.44%
    Hang Seng*                                  17022.91      232.21     1.38%
    China: DJ Shanghai*                      307.29           1.30      0.42%
    Seoul Composite*                        1386.68          -5.05    -0.36%
    Bombay Sensex                          14284.21    2110.79    17.34%
    Baltic Dry Index                              2544.00       112.00    4.22%

    *at Close


  11. Asian Stocks Falter on Profit Outlook

    Asian shares fell Monday as concerns about slumping corporate profits and the still-uncertain outlook for the global economy fueled a retreat from recent highs, keeping the safe-haven yen broadly higher.

    Investors are hoping that the global economy may have hit a bottom, though the timing and potential strength of a recovery are far from clear. The MSCI index of Asian stocks outside Japan has surged 53 percent from its 2009 low on March 4 to its yearly high on May 11, but the global equity rally has shown signs of losing steam in recent days.

    Japan’s Nikkei shed 2.4 percent to hit its lowest close since May 1, with exporters such as Sony sinking as the yen advanced against the dollar. Panasonic dropped 7.6 percent after it forecast a bigger-than-expected annual loss following a record quarter of red ink, battered by weak demand, price falls and restructuring costs.

    Seoul shares finished down 0.3 percent, led by energy issues, weighed down by weakness in the won currency and recent falls in crude prices, but gains in automakers lent support.

    Australian stocks closed 1 percent lower, trimming earlier losses as the banks improved in afternoon trade, while concerns about the economic outlook hit mining stocks and an unending wave of capital-raisings hurt sentiment.

    Hong Kong shares rose 1.4 percent despite a record contraction in the local economy and an economic slump in euro-zone countries, while lower oil prices hit energy stocks hard.

    Singapore’s Straits Times Index swung into the black, up 1.6 percent. This after data showing that key exports contracted for a 12th straight month in April, and at a faster pace as the ongoing global economic meltdown, was released. Singapore Airlines, the second biggest carrier by market value, rose 3.3 percent after it saw passenger loads stabilize in April.

    China’s Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.3 percent higher, with financial and property shares weak .

    The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex zoomed 1,305.97 points at 13,479.39, hitting the upper circuit within seconds of opening of trade, following which trading was halted for two hours. Investor wealth soared on the Bombay Stock Exchange, as the markets were elated at the decisive win of the ruling UPA government in the general elections.


  12. Euro Shares Pare Losses, Rise on Banks

    European shares pared earlier losses to trade slightly higher on Monday with banking stocks leading the gains.

    The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.6 percent at 845.09 points. The index lost 3 percent last week, but is up more than 29 percent from the lifetime low it hit on March 9.

    Miners were lower, tracking weaker metal prices. Anglo American, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata fell between 2.1 and 4.7 percent. However, Vedanta bucked the trend, rising 3.7 percent. Analysts welcomed election results in India, where Vedanta has the majority of its operations.

    The Indian election result was "a big positive surprise," said analysts at Deutsche Bank in a note. "The political platform thus delivered to the Congress party now raises huge expectations on the roadmap and velocity of economic reform disinvestment, increasing foreign direct investments, pension and insurance sector reforms." "We believe the verdict is one of those rare instances which justify a rerating of the Indian equity market," the bank said.

    Oils fell, reacting to the sharp slide in crude prices on Friday. Total, ENI, BP and Royal Dutch Shell fell between 0.9 and 1.9 percent.

    Cairn Energy which has interests in India, rose 2.7 percent.

    Lloyds Banking Group rose 6.5 percent, after announcing on Sunday that chairman Victor Blank will retire in 2010.

    German sportscar maker Porsche fell 6.5 percent after Volkswagen halted merger talks between the two companies. Volkswagen was down 1.6 percent.

    Pharmaceuticals were higher, led by GlaxoSmithKline, up 1.6 percent after taking another step to bolster its early-stage pipeline of cancer drugs by signing a deal worth up to $370 million with privately held British biotech group Oxford BioTherapeutics.

    Across Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were between 0.1 and 0.8 percent higher.


  13. Oil Rises Toward $57 After Sharp Slide

    Oil rose to around $57 a barrel on Monday as traders saw the previous session’s near 4 percent fall as excessive and violence in Africa’s top oil exporter Nigeria lent support. Nigeria’s main militant group said it would blockade key waterways in the Niger Delta to try to prevent crude exports. On Sunday, militants said they had blown up two oil and gas pipelines.

    (For those keeping track, the reliable Nigerian rebels are back after a hiatus — ramana)

    U.S. light, sweet crude [ 57.18    0.84  (+1.49%)] for June rose. It fell $2.28 to settle at $56.34 on Friday, down from a six-month high above $60 hit earlier last week. London Brent crude [ 57.05    1.07  (+1.91%)] traded higher.

    Confidence at Japan’s manufacturers edged up from record lows, a Reuters monthly poll showed. European stocks rose slightly on Monday, following on from losses in Asia.

    OPEC, which has agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of output since September, meets on May 28 to decide production policy. So far, OPEC comments suggest the group is unlikely to cut supply further.

    In a development that may support gasoline, Sunoco Inc said on Monday production at its 178,000-bpd Marcus Hook refinery on the Pennsylvania-Delaware border was "impacted" by a fire after explosions at the plant.

    Dollar Gains vs Euro, Yen as Stocks Fall

    The dollar edged up against the euro while falls on equity markets and concerns over the large uncertainties surrounding the global economic outlook encouraged investors to buy currencies perceived as safe. European equities fell by 0.5 percent, tracking falls in Asian stock markets overnight, which lent support to the dollar. Shares were off lows, however, having earlier traded over 1 percent lower.

    There has been a return of skepticism on stock markets and the market is reacting in terms of a rebound in the dollar and the yen," Stockholm-based SEB currency strategist Johan Javeus said. The world economy is in "a very uncertain mode" at the moment, wavering between the hope and optimism that the global economy may be over the worst and the knowledge that "bear market rallies in a recession are the rule not the exception." "Right now it is difficult for the market to choose which leg to stand on," he said.

    The euro [ 1.3471    -0.0021  (-0.16%)    ] fell against the dollar as the U.S. currency gained 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies to 83.059.

    Against the yen, the euro [ 128.89    0.43  (+0.33%)   ] edged up, off an earlier low of 126.99 yen on EBS, its lowest since April 29.

    The dollar [ 95.64    0.45  (+0.47%)   ] climbed against the yen, rebounding from a two-month low of 94.55 yen struck earlier on trading platform EBS.

    The Reuters Tankan survey overnight showed confidence among Japanese manufacturers edged up from record low levels, providing some hope for that Japan’s battered economy may have reached a trough in the first quarter. There was also some relief as Moody’s ratings agency said on Monday it was raising Japan’s yen-denominated Japanese government bonds by a notch to Aa2 from Aa3. But it downgraded its foreign currency bond rating to Aa2 from AAA, thus unifying the two ratings.

    "Japanese data could move into the market focus this week already: Industrial production and orders tomorrow, Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Weakness at this front should weigh on the yen and should help to stabilize dollar/yen," Commerzbank analysts said in a note to clients.

    Elsewhere, sterling [1.5245    0.0068  (+0.45%)   ] gained against the dollar, while the euro [ 0.8832    -0.0055  (-0.62%)   ] fell versus the pound after Oman’s central bank said it was buying small amounts of sterling and euros to diversify its reserves. It said, however, that the dollar will remain its main reserve currency.

    The euro [1.5124    -0.0008  (-0.05%)   ] was steady against the Swiss franc, not far from a one-week high hit on Friday after traders said the Bank of International Settlements was buying the euro, though the Swiss National Bank declined to comment.


    Gold stays near 6-week high, ETF holdings steady

    Gold inched up 0.1 percent to $931.40 per ounce at 0657 GMT, compared with New York’s notional close of $930.70.

    "Gold is inching up a bit because of inflation worries, of (governments) printing money, with investors switching to gold," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

    Investors were not in a hurry to invest more money into gold, keeping holdings at the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), unchanged at 1,105.62 tonnes as of May 15.

    Platinum rose 0.4 percent to $1,105.00  an ounce from $1,100.50 from Friday. The annual platinum week gathering in London begins on Monday with the launch of refiner Johnson Matthey’s platinum report.

    Palladium also edged up to $224.00 from Friday’s $222.50.

    ETF Securities  silver-backed ETC also saw a large move in its holdings, which climbed 6.3 percent on the week to 19.137 million ounces.


  14. LOL on Nigerians Ramana!


  15. [...] We’re mainly in cash and were pretty much hoping for a sell-off this week so we could hit our Buy List but that’s not looking likely this morning. It’s a light data week heading into the holiday weekend and the bond market closes early on Friday, which is traditionally a very light trading day. In our first two holiday weekends of the year, it hasn’t been the week before but the Tuesday’s we came back (Jan 20th – down 332 and Feb 17th, down 300 points) that have been painful. Friday the 10th of April was a holiday and we did drop 163 by the next Tuesday as well. So we’ll have to plan being cautious into the weekend, no matter what happens during the week. Meanwhile, we’ll be keeping an eye on our levels and having fun with some shorter-term trades, like we did on Friday with the Ag sector. [...]