Posts Tagged ‘alpha’

WARREN BUFFETT’S POOR RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS

WARREN BUFFETT’S POOR RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Here’s something I’d never seen done before – an analysis of Warren Buffett’s risk adjusted returns. Insider Monkey has run an interesting analysis on the Buffett portfolio calculating his alpha since 1977.  The conclusion – as Buffett has aged and grown in size his returns have become substantially worse on a risk adjusted basis:

“Warren Buffett had a phenomenal annual alpha of 19% between 1956 and 1968. Our current analysis shows that his alpha was more than 30% between 1977 and 1981. During the 80′s and 90′s, his annual alpha declined but was still better than 12%. For the ten years leading to mid-2003, his annual alpha stayed around 12% per year. Since then, it started a steep decline; by the end of 2004 it was (still a respectable) 6% per year.  Between 2005 and 2008 Buffett’s alpha averaged only 3% per year. Finally, in the ten years ending in 2009, it went virtually to zero. (For regression results and Buffett’s style drift, visit Insider Monkey)”

Warren Buffett

Is Warren Buffett another casualty of the tough investment environment?  Looks like we can chalk this up under the “many myths of Warren Buffett” file.


Tags: , , , ,




Lack Of Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record

Lack Of Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record As Most Stocks Now Trade As One

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Fundamental analysis is no longer relevant as Alpha has just done one more revolution in its grave: today 1 Year Implied Correlation hit a new all time record, at 79.84 (out of 100 maximum possible), meaning the inverse of the metric, stock dispersion, or the measurement of the variation in individual stock prices, or broadly speaking alpha, is now completely irrelevant. As we have been saying for a year, "investing" is now all about a levered beta bet, using the maximum possible leverage, and sacrifices to Moloch, that the market does not turn before price targets are hit. At this rate we anticipate the next broad or acute selloff will take us to 100 in implied correlation, at which point there will be no benefit whatsoever to trading individual stocks: the entire market will be one big ETF.

As a clarification: the data comes from the CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index is a widely disseminated, market-based estimate of the average correlation of the stocks that comprise the S&P 500 Index. Using SPX options prices, together with the prices of options on the 50 largest stocks in the SPX. Tied to January 2011 Option Maturities.

h/t Credit Trader


Tags: , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Obamacare To Unveil "Price Shock" One Week Before The Elections

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The writing was on the wall long before the largest US insurer, UnitedHealth, decided to pull the plug on Obamacare in mid April.  Then, just a week later, Aetna’s CEO said Thursday that his company expects to break even, but legislative fixes are needed to make the marketplace sustainable.

"I think a lot of insurance carriers expected red ink, but they didn’t expect this much red ink,” said Greg Scott, wh...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Mathematical Jackasses

Courtesy of Mish.

With the exception of emerging market countries in trouble like Brazil and Russia, and complete hyperinflation basket cases like Venezuela, can anyone name a central bank that genuinely wants a stronger currency?

Today, the Bank of Japan is at the top of the whiner list of strong currency complainers, despite the obvious mathematics.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warns Current Yen Strength Risks Harming Japan Recovery“.

Speaking to reporters in Frankfurt Monday, Kuroda also reiterated that BOJ policy makers won’t hesitate to expand monetary stimulus in order to achieve their 2 percent inflation target. The central bank’s board lef...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

Brazil Bans WhatsApp Once Again - 100 Million People Lose Access

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Brazil Bans WhatsApp Once Again – 100 Million People Lose Access

As Brazil’s economy collapses and the leader of the country faces impeachment for corruption the Government is focusing on the important issues… banning Whatsapp – below a petition from a pro free-speech group (which does not include Glenn Greenwald) demanding that Brazil allow WhatsApp to be used once again in Brazil

What would happen if you suddenly lost access to your messaging app? That’s what just happened to 100 million people in Brazil this afternoon.

...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Markets Rally But Breadth Remains Weak

Courtesy of Declan.

Monday enjoyed some follow through upside after Friday's afternoon recovery. However,  gains were on very light volume given the distribution which carried most of last week. Also, market breadth remains in decline from overbought levels.

The Nasdaq frames this neatly. The rally has come off a bull defense of the 50-day MA on higher after a series of heavy volume selling days. MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI are in well established 'sell' triggers along with a sharp relative underperformance against the S&P.  Bullish dip buyers will be pleased with today's action, but other factors are running against them.

...

more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Digital Currencies

"The Claims Don't Add Up" - Is The "Unmasking" Of Bitcoin's Satoshi Nakamoto Just A Publicity Stunt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Earlier today we reported that in what many are convinced is just another self-gratifying publicity stunt, Australian entrepreneur Craig Wright "outed" himself as bitcoin's mysterious creator "Satoshi Nakamoto" by unleashing a major PR campaign and revealing his "identity" to three media organizations - the BBC, the Economist and GQ.

As ...



more from Bitcoin

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wrong-Way Bets Rule U.S. Stock Market's $3 Trillion Recovery (Bloomberg)

Here’s what happened during the rebound in equities that added nearly $3 trillion to U.S. share values in 10 weeks: mutual funds hoarded cash, short sellers tightened their grip on bearish bets and individuals bailed out of the market.

Fed Ponders Catchup With Economic Theory Signaling Rates Too Low (Bloomberg)

When does treading carefully lead to falling behind?

...



more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil- Suggesting to "Sell In May" again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

It’s that time of year to hear the “Sell In May” message. This theme usually applies to stocks. Could it also apply to Crude Oil?

The above chart compares Crude Oil and the S&P 500 the past four years.

A year ago, Crude Oil and the S&P 500 both peaked the first of May at (1) and then proceeded to create a series of lower highs and lower lows for the next 9 months.

To start off this year, both created reversal p...



more from Kimble C.S.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Insider Scoop

Mednax's Unit MedData To Buy Duet Health For Undisclosed Terms

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MD Benzinga's Top Downgrades After Rounds Of Financing, Is Healthcare M&A Picking Up?

MEDNAX (NYSE: MD)' unit MedData, Inc., disclosed the acquisition of Duet Health, which is engaged in developing of patient engagement software, as well as, mHealth solutions. The terms a...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>