Posts Tagged ‘Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’

How Did Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Go From Mapping Out More QE To Saying Kill the Fed?

How Did Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Go From Mapping Out More QE To Saying Kill the Fed?

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

We made it really obvious…
how can you NOT tell what this guy is up to?

On September 6th, A E-P made Bernanke’s way to more easy money extremely clear (after bashing America’s awful economic performance lately, as if he’d actually bought into the idea that we recovered from the last round and was genuinely disappointed by us) and gave him a treasure map to blowing up the bond market and pumping fresh "not money" into the system.

Check out Dangerous Defeatism is taking hold among America’s economic elites:

Get a grip, the lot of you. While there is no easy way out for the US after stealing so much prosperity from the future through debt, there is no excuse for this dead-end defeatism. Clearly, the ‘canonical New Keynesian’ model that holds such sway on America’s elites is intellectually exhausted.

The Fed has an arsenal of neutron bombs if it wants to use them, and uses them correctly. It can engage in "monetary policy a l’outrance" as Maynard Keynes propsed in his Treatise on Money in 1930, before he lost his way with the General Theory.

Blitz the market with bond purchases, but do so outside the banking system by buying from insurers, pension funds, and the public. This would gain traction on the broad M3 money instead of letting it collapse (yes, the "monetary base" has exploded, but that is a red herring), working through the classic Fisher/Friedman mechanisms of the quantity of money theory.

This is quite different from the Fed’s QE which buys bonds from the banks and works by trying to drive down borrowing costs. While Bernanke’s ‘creditism’ is certainly better than nothing, it is not gaining full traction.

By the 27th, he was calling to pull the plug on the Fed and begging for forgiveness, having seen the error of his easy money-pushing ways. 

That’s a pretty incredible turnaround in a matter of weeks for a guy who has pretty much been squealing for more easy money this entire time. When the European Central Bank finally dropped the monetary WMDs I’m sure he had to clean his screen after he wrote the fansite review of the ECB’s QE measures. Please. 


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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Repents for His Fed Love

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Repents for His Fed Love

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

 

Yesterday the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard poured out his guilty heart and soul begging for forgiveness for endorsing the Fed’s unique QE measures of late. He very clearly denounces the monetary crackheads at 20th and Constitution and calls out Bernanke for what he is: an old school psychopath in a new school world.

The Telegraph:

I apologise to readers around the world for having defended the emergency stimulus policies of the US Federal Reserve, and for arguing like an imbecile naif that the Fed would not succumb to drug addiction, political abuse, and mad intoxicated debauchery, once it began taking its first shots of quantitative easing.

My pathetic assumption was that Ben Bernanke would deploy further QE only to stave off DEFLATION, not to create INFLATION. If the Federal Open Market Committee cannot see the difference, God help America.

We now learn from last week’s minutes that the Fed is willing “to provide additional accommodation if needed to … return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.”

NO, NO, NO, this cannot possibly be true.

Ben Bernanke has not only refused to abandon his idee fixe of an “inflation target”, a key cause of the global central banking catastrophe of the last twenty years (because it can and did allow asset booms to run amok, and let credit levels reach dangerous extremes).

Worse still, he seems determined to print trillions of emergency stimulus without commensurate emergency justification to test his Princeton theories, which by the way are as old as the hills. Keynes ridiculed the “tyranny of the general price level” in the early 1930s, and quite rightly so. Bernanke is reviving a doctrine that was already shown to be bunk eighty years ago.

So all those hillsmen in Idaho, with their Colt 45s and boxes of krugerrands, who sent furious emails to the Telegraph accusing me of defending a hyperinflating establishment cabal were right all along. The Fed is indeed out of control.

Good, he should apologize for that sort of disrespectful display. Didn’t we all know he was wrong all along? Didn’t we all know that the Fed never had a plan to get out? Even if they have a plan we all know they’re unlikely to use it until it’s far too late but that point…
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Japan Redux: A Video Case Study Of The Upcoming U.S. Lost Decade

Interesting video--argues for eventual hyperinflation in the US. – Ilene

Japan Redux: A Video Case Study Of The Upcoming U.S. Lost Decade

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Whether one believes in inflation or deflation, one thing is certain: in many ways the current US experience finds numerous parallels to what has been happening in Japan for not one but two decades. While major economic, sociological and financial differences do exist, the key issue remains each respective central bank’s failed attempts to reflate its economy. While long a mainstay of Japan, if the first failed version of our own QE, which pumped $1.7 trillion of new liquidity into the system, is any indication, future comparable efforts by our own Fed will be met with the same outcome (and hopefully with the same political result: the half life of an average Japanese prime minister is 6 months – if only our career politicos knew their tenure in office could be capped at half a year…).

There is of course the "tipping point" optionality discussed earlier by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, when comparing the hyperinflationary timeline during the Weimar republic, which noted that it took just a few months for the economy to slide from a period of price stability to outright hyperinflation. Either way, for an ironic look at the Japanese deflation scenario, targeted more at novices although everyone will likely learning something from it, we present the following informative clip from, ironically, the National Inflation Association, which asks whether Japan is a blueprint for America’s imminent lost decade(s). 


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Hobos and welfare for America’s Rich

H/t Jesse’s Café Américain

Hobos and welfare for America’s Rich

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph 

hobo

Itinerant worker looking for work during the Great Depression 

Excerpt:

Reading William Manchester’s Glory And The Dream over the weekend, I came across this remark from President Herbert Hoover, blurted out famously in the cruellest year of 1932.

“Nobody is actually starving. The hobos, for example, are better fed than they have ever been. Hobos are eating well, in fact one had ten meals in a single day.”

Mr Heller probably regrets his words already, but such damage cannot easily be undone. Republicans on Capitol Hill who backed the mobilization of $3 trillion of fiscal and monetary support to bail out the financial system are now going to great efforts to prevent the roll-over of temporary benefits to 1.2m jobless facing an imminent cut-off. I don’t wish to enter deeply into an internal US dispute between Republicans and Democrats, but I do think think that the American political class will have to face up to the new reality of a semi-permanent slump for a decade or more that will blight a great number of lives. The cyclical recovery that normally makes it possible for most Americans to find a job if they want one is not going to happen this time because the overhang of debt, fiscal tightening, and a liquidity trap have combined to jam the mechanism.

Full article here.>


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23 Doomsayers Who Say We’re Heading Toward Depression In 2011

23 Doomsayers Who Say We’re Heading Toward Depression In 2011

Paul Krugman Leonard Lopate

By Michael Snyder writing at The Business Insider/Clusterstock 

Micheal Snyder is editor of "The Economic Collapse Blog"

Could the world economy be headed for a depression in 2011?

As inconceivable as that may seem to a lot of people, the truth is that top economists and governmental authorities all over the globe say that the economic warning signs are there and that we need to start paying attention to them.  The two primary ingredients for a depression are debt and fear, and the reality is that we have both of them in abundance in the financial world today.

Meet The New Doomsayers >

In response to the global financial meltdown of 2007 and 2008, governments around the world spent unprecedented amounts of money and got into a ton of debt.  All of that spending did help bail out the global banking system, but now that an increasing number of governments around the world are in need of bailouts themselves, what is going to happen?  We have already seen the fear that is generated when one small little nation like Greece even hints at defaulting.  When it becomes apparent that quite a few governments around the globe cannot handle their debt burdens, what kind of shockwave is that going to send through financial markets? 

The truth is that we are facing the greatest sovereign debt crisis in modern history.  There is no way out of this financial mess that does not include a significant amount of economic pain. 

When you add mountains of debt to paralyzing fear to strict austerity measures, what do you get?


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The Currency Implosion Heard Round the World

The Currency Implosion Heard Round the World

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

Last night, the Fed promised to support a controlled EU demolition.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via the Telegraph:

"It is an absolute general mobilization: we have decided to give the eurozone a veritable economic government," said French president Nicolas Sarkozy, once again basking as Europe’s action man. "Today we have an attack on the whole of the eurozone. This is a systemic crisis: the response must be systemic. When the markets open on Monday morning we will be ready to defend the euro."

An attack.

But if the early reports are near true, the accord profoundly alters the character of the European Union. The walls of fiscal and economic sovereignty are being breached. The creation of an EU rescue mechanism with powers to issue bonds with Europe’s AAA rating to help eurozone states in trouble — apparently €60bn, with a separate facility that may be able to lever up to €600bn — is to go far beyond the Lisbon Treaty. This new agency is an EU Treasury in all but name, managing an EU fiscal union where liabilities become shared. A European state is being created before our eyes.

No EMU country will be allowed to default, whatever the moral hazard. Mrs Merkel seems to have bowed to extreme pressure as contagion spread to Portugal, Ireland, and — the two clinchers — Spain and Italy. "We have a serious situation, not just in one country but in several," she said.

You wonder how bad the weekend looked for them to take this move – a paper promise the European Union can’t deliver on (but Zimbabwe Ben is ready to help anyway) that leaves no way out except through a truly united Euro. Likethey will blast the shit out of anyone who comes near them with $1 trillion in made up fucking money God damnit, this is serious (and "systemic," a word that worked quite well on America not that long ago).

Britain had rats running in the streets way before easy money whore psychopaths went chasing the March 2009 market all the way up so to say this problem in Europe is in any way new would be false. It’s just that now it’s started to fester while we’ve been busy remarking how much better things are.

"Nuclear". We’ve…
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Rep. Suzie Bassi: “Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget”; Ambrose Evans Pritchard Inflicted with FIV

Rep. Suzie Bassi: "Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget"; Ambrose Evans Pritchard Inflicted with FIV

Courtesy of Mish 

French mime artist Marcel Marceau's items auctioned at Drouot in Paris

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has the right facts but the wrong cure in Don’t go wobbly on us now, Ben Bernanke, an article detailing the problems in many US states, notably Illinois.

Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois is near the point of fiscal disintegration. "The state is in utter crisis," said Representative Suzie Bassi. "We are next to bankruptcy. We have a $13bn hole in a $28bn budget."

The state has been paying bills with unfunded vouchers since October. A fifth of buses have stopped. Libraries, owed $400m (£263m), are closing one day a week. Schools are owed $725m. Unable to pay teachers, they are preparing mass lay-offs. "It’s a catastrophe", said the Schools Superintedent.

In Alexander County, the sheriff’s patrol cars have been repossessed; three-quarters of his officers are laid off; the local prison has refused to take county inmates until debts are paid.

Florida, Arizona, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York are all facing crises. California has cut teachers salaries by 5pc, and imposed a 5pc levy on pension fees.

This is not to pick on America. Belt-tightening is the oppressive fact of 2010-2012 for half the world. Hungary, Ukraine, the Baltics and the Balkans are already under the knife. Latvia’s economy may contract by 30pc from peak to trough as it carries out an "internal devaluation", ie wage cuts, to hold its euro peg.

The eurozone’s fiscal squeeze is well advanced in Ireland. Brussels has told Greece to cut by 10pc of GDP in three years, Spain by 8pc, Portugal by 6pc. Britain must slash soon, or face a gilts strike.

The Bank for International Settlements says Britain needs a primary surplus of 5.8pc of GDP for a decade to stabilise debt at pre-crisis levels, given the ageing crunch as well. The figure is 6.4pc for Japan, 4.3pc for the US and France. It warns of "unstable dynamics", posh talk for a debt spiral. "Action is needed now."

The West risks a slow grind into debt-deflation unless central banks offset fiscal tightening with monetary stimulus – QE, of course – to keep demand alive. Yet the Fed and the European Central Bank are letting credit contract.

So why has Bernanke broken ranks with King and…
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Bill Cara’s Blog

Bill argues that the Geithner/Obama economic stimulus plan to co-opt the equity markets, while effective so far, is neither sustainable nor healthy. – Ilene

Bill Cara’s Blog for January 11, 2010

Courtesy of Bill Cara  

Gold Coin

Morning Call

Trading in the Gold market Friday and again this weekend was bizarre. We need to look into this situation closely.

With the release of the US December Jobs Report on Friday, the spin was that there was a negative surprise, which would lead to more Quantitative Easing, which in turn would lead to higher Gold prices. Gold popped for just a few minutes, and then sidetracked the rest of the day. So who made any money? Just as important, the November Jobs Report was revised stronger, which balanced out the reported December weakness. So it looked to me that the economic data was merely a cover for traders who wanted to distribute Gold.

Then on Saturday, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor of the UK Telegraph in London, continued his hard hitting bearish reporting in an article entitled: America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels: (sub-head) December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great Recession began.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/696263…

Immediately, the spin was that more Quantitative Easing would be needed, and when the Gold futures market opened on the weekend the opening tick was 1139 and the next at 1163, which was a greater than +2% move in a couple minutes. From that point forward through this morning, the Gold price has side-tracked, presently at about 1156.

At current prices, all the gold ever produced in the world, which Gold Bugs claim still exists, amounts to a valuation of $5 trillion, so that +2% move in less than 15 minutes has supposedly added about $200 billion. Wow. Not even the spending in D.C. can grow that fast.

Some time in the past year, I realized that capital markets had become something other than what they are designed for, which is a price discovery mechanism for assets based on economics. Regrettably, since the central banks of the world have caused their balance sheets to balloon during 2009, which is well illustrated in the graph I show in this weekend’s Week In Review, the global financial system is now based on hot air, not real assets in the economic sense.

On the balance sheet of…
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Is the Fed Juicing the Stock Market?

Is the Fed Juicing the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Mike Whitney writing at Global Research

Purple stack of money with stock quotes behind

Is the Fed manipulating the stock market?  TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman seems to think so, and he makes a strong case for his theory in an article at zerohedge.com.

Biderman focuses his attention on the mystery surrounding the stock market’s 9-month rally and asks, "Where is the money coming from?"  After all, the market cap has increased by more than $6 trillion since March 9. That amount of money should be fairly easy to trace; right?

Wrong.

Biderman: "The most positive economic development in 2009 was the stock market rally. (But) We cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast.  For the most part, the money did not from the traditional players that provided money in the past."

Huh?  So, this vast infusion of liquidity--which helped the banks to avoid painful deleveraging--did not come from the usual suspects?

That’s right. According to Biderman, the money did not come from (a) companies ("which were a huge net seller") (b) retail investor funds,  (c) retail investors, (d) foreign investors, or (e) pension funds.

What about the hedge funds?

Biderman:  "We have no way to track in real time what hedge funds do, and they may well have shifted some assets into U.S. equities.  But we doubt their buying power was enormous because they posted an outflow of $12 billion from April through November."

Okay; so we’re back to Square One. Where did the money come from?

Biderman again:  "As far as we know, it is not illegal for the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury to buy S&P 500 futures.  Moreover, several officials have suggested the government should support stock prices.  For example, former Fed board member Robert Heller opined in the Wall Street Journal in 1989, “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.”  In a Financial Times article in 2002, an unidentified Fed official was quoted as acknowledging that policymakers had considered buying U.S. equities directly, not just futures.  The official mentioned that the Fed could “theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system.”

Biderman…
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Stop the madness now!

Excellent post on the economy and saving it (or not) by Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns. (My yellow highlighting) – Ilene

Stop the madness now!

mad as hellThis is a post I just wrote over at Yves Smith’s site Naked Capitalism in response to a reader request. Marshall Auerback has already written a reply as well and I will post this later today.

A reader at Naked Capitalism asked us to respond to a recent article from the Christian Science Monitor asking Does US need a second stimulus to create jobs?

Marshall Auerback has already done some heavy lifting. He says emphatically yes. Now I want to take a crack at this. My short answer is no. But before I go into this, as an aside, I wanted to mention Marshall’s new smiling, happy picture up at the great blog New Deal 2.0 where he now writes.  Earlier, when Credit Writedowns was hosted at Blogger, he used a picture best described as a mug shot in his profile, but he has changed that one too (although he smiles there a little less). He thinks we haven’t noticed this sleight of hand.  Well I have! Once upon a time, Marshall wrote with a man I called all bearish, all the time this summer. Take a look at that post; you don’t see him smiling now do you? We have Lynn Parramore, New Deal 2.0’s editor to thank for making Marshall Auerback into an optimist.

Different policy choices

But all teasing aside, I do want to take the opposite side of this trade.  You see I too was a deficit hawk. And while I may have been backing fiscal stimulus, I have felt conflicted for doing so. Here’s how I see it. 

You have four options:

  1. No stimulus. Let the chips fall where they may. Yves Smith calls this the ‘Mellonite liquidationist mode.’ The thinking here is that trying to avoid the inevitable bust only makes it that much larger. And the economic policies during recessions in 1991 and 2001 seem to bear that out. The Harding Recession of 1921 is commonly seen as gold standard response.
  2. Monetary stimulus only. Quantitative easing mania. My understanding is this is what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been advocating.   The thinking here is that the flood of money and the


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Zero Hedge

One Professional Investor's Take On Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

We all know Dirty Harry’s viewpoint about opinions, but I wonder what Detective Callahan would think about today’s bitcoin mania. It seems like every Tom, Dick and Harry feels obliged to weigh in about the manic action of the their favourite virtual currency, yet I am curious how many of these crack pundits have ever even transacted in bitcoin.

...



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Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

European Stocks Steady; Italian Banks Fall After Renzi Comments (Bloomberg)

European stocks were steady while shares in Italy’s banks dropped along with the country’s bonds after comments from former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi sparked concerns that an early election is possible.

Hong Kong Throngs of Thousands Defy Bid to Cool Home Market...



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ValueWalk

Joel Greenblatt - Individual Investors Can Beat Large Institutions And Passive Strategies

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of our favorite Joel Greenblatt interviews is one he did with Steve Forbes at Intelligent Investing.

In this interview, Greenblatt explains how small investors can still beat large institutions. Greenblatt also discusses why investing in indexes like The Russell 1000 and the S&P 500 are seriously flawed even though they beat most active managers.

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He highlights why value investors can benefit greatly from toda...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 28, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Another winning week for the bulls, in a year full of them!  Things kicked off with a bang with a gap up Monday as the after shocks of the Comey removal – the one thing that seemed to shake this market for 24 hours – passed in the night.   Wednesday, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed broad agreement on plans to begin shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet and also pointed to a likely rate increase next month, as widely expected.   Another gap up to start the day Thursday and serenity was found for the week.  Every day was up for the S&P 500 to book a weekly finished of +1.4% while the NASDAQ raced ahead +2.1%.

The minutes of the early May meeting showed that members were ...



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Digital Currencies

Visualizing The Expanding Universe Of Cryptocurrencies

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency, and its meteoric rise has made it a mainstay of conversation for investors, media, and technologists alike.

In fact, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins details, the innovation of the blockchain is changing entire markets, while causing ripples with central banks and the financial industry. At time of publication, the bitcoin price now hovers near US$2,200, a massive increase from this time last year.

But the true impact of Bitcoin is actually far more reaching than this – it’s a...



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Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge Fund Billionaire Paul Singer: If Trump Agenda Fails, a Recession Could Follow (Fortune)

Market watchers who thought the stock market would drop if Donald Trump were elected were burned following his win: markets rose to new highs instead.

U.S. inflation path since 2012 is worrisome, policymaker says (Reuters)

The current level of U.S. prices is noticeably lower than what it would be if the Federal Reserve had delivered on its 2-percent inflation target, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, calling the trend "worrisome."

...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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