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Posts Tagged ‘analysis’

Research or Insider Trading? A Guide

Joshua M Brown provides a hilarious roadmap to help you distinguish between legitimate research and preparation for insider trading, in "Research or Insider Trading? A Guide."  And no, it’s not meant as a "how to".  - Ilene   

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

What constitutes legitimate research?  When is the insider trading line crossed?

Many of the financial blogosphere’s luminaries, like Felix SalmonJohn Carney and Roger Ehrenberg, are carrying on this debate right now.

And since I’m in the solutions business, I’ve created the below guide that may help a bit…

Just my 2 cents.

Some of my other guides:

Venture, Angel or Private Placement?  (TRB)

Decoding Mutual Fund Brochures (TRB) 

*SAC = SAC Capital Advisors 


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Gold and US Dollar Counts – Nov 09

Binve’s beautiful chart menagerie, at Market Thoughts and Analysis - Ilene

Gold and US Dollar Counts – Nov 09

This post contains some of my updated counts for Gold and the US Dollar.

Please read these posts first to understand the context for these counts:

-- The Gold Blog. Gold/Silver/GSMs (and a little Oil for good measure) –   Sep 11, 09
-- Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog –   Sep 17, 09
-- Thoughts on the Dow/Gold Ratio –   Oct 19, 09

Some commentary before the charts:

I believe the Dollar has bottomed for the short term and the US Equity Markets have topped (for the long term). There is still inverse correlation between Dollar/US Equities. And likely this will come with pronouncements of deflation.

As long as there was and continues to be a Federal Reserve, no outcome has ever been deflationary nor will deflation be in our future.

Deflation is monetary deflation. The rise or fall of the price of asset classes is NOT inflationary or deflationary. Moreover, the falling price of the most visible asset class (US Equities) is NOT evidence of past or future deflation.

Because the outcome is and will continue to be inflationary.  Many may believe that this will help US Equities to rise in nominal terms. A very incorrect assumption. Inflation will help asset classes with poor fundamentals (US Equities) from falling as far as they otherwise would. But fall they will. Which is a demand issue not a deflation issue.

The long term relationship of the US Dollar to US Equities is positive correlation. Here is an excerpt from my massive US Dollar Post (link above):

By and large, there is **far more** positive correlation between the Dollar and Equities than there is inverse correlation. They both go up and down together as evidenced in the chart above.

However, many, including myself, have observed that the "weak dollar" is currently fueling the the equity rally right now. So why the discrepancy?

Because we are still in the aftermath of the Greatest Deleveraging Event in History (2008)!

During the meltdown of 2008, everything was sold / redeemed for the relative "safety" (used exceptionally loosely) of Treasuries: shares in hedge funds, commodities,


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Daily S&P500 analysis using Ichimoku charts

Daily S&P500 analysis using Ichimoku charts for July 30th 2009

Courtesy of Larry’s IchimokuCharts.com

Friday, July 31, 2009 at 10:24AM

 

 


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Pre-FOMC Rally on Statement Wording Speculation

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Today's market focus was tomorrow afternoon's FOMC statement and Chair Yellen's press conference. The S&P 500 opened lower but quickly rose into the shallow green. Shortly after 11 AM, the index launched a strong rally to its 0.91% early-afternoon intraday high. The rise was apparently triggered by WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath's comments during a live webcast.

Hilsenrath, generally regarded as "in the know on Fed" thinking, expects the FOMC's reference to a "considerable time" before a rate hike to remain in September statement, although he expects some qualification verbiage along the lines suggested by Yellen at Jackson Hole. The markets gave his views a "two thumbs up." The Dow hit a record intraday high, and the S&P 500 lif...



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Zero Hedge

Dow Hits New Record Intraday-High Ahead Of Fed & Scottish Uncertainty

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Overnight weakness in Asia and Europe was shrugged off. The Dow hit all-time record highs (first since July) and the S&P broke back above 2,000 following headlines proclaiming a "stealth QE" from China (which actually hit the news during the Asia session) and chatter from WSJ's Hilsenrath that The Fed will leave the words "considerable period" in the statement tomorrow. Early weakness in stocks was ripped 25 points higher in the S&P on the back of a 97% correlation to AUDJPY (China-driven), the USD dumped to unch for the week (worst day since May), commodities all took off higher (led by Copper and Oil), and Treasuries ...



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Phil's Favorites

Newsflash To Fed: 122 Billion Bottles Of Beer On The Wall Is About Asset Bubbles, Not Jobs

 

#455488306 / gettyimages.com Newsflash To Fed: 122 Billion Bottles Of Beer On The Wall Is About Asset Bubbles, Not Jobs

Courtesy of  

While Janet Yellen and her band of money printers work themselves into a tizzy over whether two buzz words—-“considerable time”—– should ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Credit Suisse Sees Upside In Tableau Software Inc

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Analysts at Credit Suisse upgraded shares of Tableau Software Inc (NYSE: DATA) from Neutral to Outperform and raised the price target from $87.50 to $100.00 Tuesday.

Philip Winslow is confident in Tableau’s ability to maintain healthy revenue growth.

Analysts also identify that the company has a technology advantage in its highly-intuitive, visual-based core BI capabilities. Winslow stated, “ Tableau's development strategy positions the company to (1) continue to expand the market for business intelligence software and (2) increasingly gain market share in large enterprise deployments.”

Tableau is also experiencing International expansion momentum. Analysts view Internet expansion for Tableau as “significant” given that 5...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Bill Gates all got together in a room with the task of building the most accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you… they never got around to building it, but my colleagues at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing but traded a handful of conservative alerts since its inception, you would have experienced portfolio gains exceeding 200%!

Plus, when you register for the webinar you’ll g...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls go down swinging, refusing to give up much ground

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Although the stock market displayed weakness last week as I suggested it would, bulls aren’t going down easily. In fact, they’re going down swinging, absorbing most of the blows delivered by hesitant bears. Despite holding up admirably when weakness was both expected and warranted, and although I still see higher highs ahead, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback. A number of signs point to more weakness ahead.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

[Sign in with your PSW user name and password, or take a free trial here.]

Image courtesy of Business Insider, Jay Yarow's This Is The Best Description Of How Apple's Business Works Right Now.

 

...

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Option Review

Big Prints In VIX Calls

The CBOE Vix Index is in positive territory on Friday morning as shares in the S&P 500 Index move slightly lower. Currently the VIX is up roughly 2.75% on the session at 13.16 as of 11:35 am ET. Earlier in the session big prints in October expiry call options caught our attention as one large options market participants appears to have purchased roughly 106,000 of the Oct 22.0 strike calls for a premium of around $0.45 each. The VIX has not topped 22.0 since the end of 2012, but it would not take such a dramatic move in the spot index in order to lift premium on the contracts. The far out-of-the-money calls would likely increase in value in the event that S&P500 Index stocks slip in the near term. The VIX traded up to a 52-week high of 21.48 back in February. Next week’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes f...



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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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