Posts Tagged ‘analysis’

Research or Insider Trading? A Guide

Joshua M Brown provides a hilarious roadmap to help you distinguish between legitimate research and preparation for insider trading, in "Research or Insider Trading? A Guide."  And no, it’s not meant as a "how to".  - Ilene   

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

What constitutes legitimate research?  When is the insider trading line crossed?

Many of the financial blogosphere’s luminaries, like Felix SalmonJohn Carney and Roger Ehrenberg, are carrying on this debate right now.

And since I’m in the solutions business, I’ve created the below guide that may help a bit…

Just my 2 cents.

Some of my other guides:

Venture, Angel or Private Placement?  (TRB)

Decoding Mutual Fund Brochures (TRB) 

*SAC = SAC Capital Advisors 


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Gold and US Dollar Counts – Nov 09

Binve’s beautiful chart menagerie, at Market Thoughts and Analysis - Ilene

Gold and US Dollar Counts – Nov 09

This post contains some of my updated counts for Gold and the US Dollar.

Please read these posts first to understand the context for these counts:

-- The Gold Blog. Gold/Silver/GSMs (and a little Oil for good measure) –   Sep 11, 09
-- Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog –   Sep 17, 09
-- Thoughts on the Dow/Gold Ratio –   Oct 19, 09

Some commentary before the charts:

I believe the Dollar has bottomed for the short term and the US Equity Markets have topped (for the long term). There is still inverse correlation between Dollar/US Equities. And likely this will come with pronouncements of deflation.

As long as there was and continues to be a Federal Reserve, no outcome has ever been deflationary nor will deflation be in our future.

Deflation is monetary deflation. The rise or fall of the price of asset classes is NOT inflationary or deflationary. Moreover, the falling price of the most visible asset class (US Equities) is NOT evidence of past or future deflation.

Because the outcome is and will continue to be inflationary.  Many may believe that this will help US Equities to rise in nominal terms. A very incorrect assumption. Inflation will help asset classes with poor fundamentals (US Equities) from falling as far as they otherwise would. But fall they will. Which is a demand issue not a deflation issue.

The long term relationship of the US Dollar to US Equities is positive correlation. Here is an excerpt from my massive US Dollar Post (link above):

By and large, there is **far more** positive correlation between the Dollar and Equities than there is inverse correlation. They both go up and down together as evidenced in the chart above.

However, many, including myself, have observed that the "weak dollar" is currently fueling the the equity rally right now. So why the discrepancy?

Because we are still in the aftermath of the Greatest Deleveraging Event in History (2008)!

During the meltdown of 2008, everything was sold / redeemed for the relative "safety" (used exceptionally loosely) of Treasuries: shares in hedge funds, commodities,


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Daily S&P500 analysis using Ichimoku charts

Daily S&P500 analysis using Ichimoku charts for July 30th 2009

Courtesy of Larry’s IchimokuCharts.com

Friday, July 31, 2009 at 10:24AM

 

 


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Zero Hedge

Trump Changes Mind On NAFTA, Decides Not To Terminate Treaty; Loonie, Peso Soar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump assured a sleepless night for currency traders when in the span of just a few hours, he appeared to change his mind on NAFTA by 180 degrees, and shortly after White House officials disclosed that the president was contemplating an executive order to exit NAFTA, perhaps in days, late on Wednesday Trump told the leaders of Canada and Mexico on Wednesday that he will not terminate the NAFTA treaty at this stage, but will move quickly to begin renegotiating it with them, a White House statement said.

The White House had been considering an executive order exiting ...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump Cries Wolf - Backs Down On NAFTA Cancellation Already: "Trump's Bluff Didn't Come Off"

Courtesy of Mish.

In a few short hours Trump when from threatening to pull the plug on NAFTA (again), to stating “It is my privilege to bring NAFTA up to date through renegotiation.”

In the here we go again category, please consider Donald Trump will not terminate NAFTA treaty after ‘pleasing talks with Canada & Mexico’.

The President congratulated his Canadian and Mexican counterparts for “proceeding quickly” and is adamant the deal will allow all three countries to be “stronger and better”.

A White House statement said: ...



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ValueWalk

Could Fiber Optic Technology Help Detect Leaks on Oil Rigs and Pipelines?

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For both environmentalists and oil companies, last Thursday was a grim anniversary. April 20, 2017 marked the seventh anniversary of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, which gushed 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf Mexico in the largest accidental marine oil spill in history. Preventing another such spill has been a concern for the industry, environmentalists, and government organizations. Although the goal is clear, the means of achieving it are less so. Fiber optic technology could help the operators of pipelines and oil rigs get valuable real time information about the oil flowing through their pipes, helping to point out potential leaks even before they begin, says David Brower, president of Astro Technology.

...

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Chart School

Markets Consolidate

Courtesy of Declan.

After two days of gains it was time for consolidation in markets. The Russell 2000 didn't get this memo and added a third day of gains managing a new closing high.


The S&P finished with a doji which tagged all-time high resistance. Technicals haven't changed from yesterday and relative performance has continued to weaken. The index just has to survive profit-taking and perhaps aggressive shorts looking to take advantage of the resistance tag.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices rebound after big draw in U.S. crude inventories (Reuters)

Oil prices rebounded from early losses on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a larger-than-expected falloff in crude inventories, which encouraged buying after prices slid for several days on worries that a global crude glut was persisting despite cuts in output by producing countries.

Lucky, Good or Tipped Off? The Curious Case of Government Data and the Pound (The Wall Street Journal)

Some investors could be trading with knowledge of U.K. official statistics before they are publi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500; Dangerous place to run out of gas!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year, be impacting stock prices in 2017? The Power of the Pattern thinks so! Below looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years. where we applied Fibonacci to the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500 ran into the 161% extension level at (2) and it stopped on a dime, at the end of February. Following a small decline the rally the past two weeks has it testi...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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