Posts Tagged ‘analysis’

Research or Insider Trading? A Guide

Joshua M Brown provides a hilarious roadmap to help you distinguish between legitimate research and preparation for insider trading, in "Research or Insider Trading? A Guide."  And no, it’s not meant as a "how to".  - Ilene   

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

What constitutes legitimate research?  When is the insider trading line crossed?

Many of the financial blogosphere’s luminaries, like Felix SalmonJohn Carney and Roger Ehrenberg, are carrying on this debate right now.

And since I’m in the solutions business, I’ve created the below guide that may help a bit…

Just my 2 cents.

Some of my other guides:

Venture, Angel or Private Placement?  (TRB)

Decoding Mutual Fund Brochures (TRB) 

*SAC = SAC Capital Advisors 


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Gold and US Dollar Counts – Nov 09

Binve’s beautiful chart menagerie, at Market Thoughts and Analysis - Ilene

Gold and US Dollar Counts – Nov 09

This post contains some of my updated counts for Gold and the US Dollar.

Please read these posts first to understand the context for these counts:

-- The Gold Blog. Gold/Silver/GSMs (and a little Oil for good measure) –   Sep 11, 09
-- Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog –   Sep 17, 09
-- Thoughts on the Dow/Gold Ratio –   Oct 19, 09

Some commentary before the charts:

I believe the Dollar has bottomed for the short term and the US Equity Markets have topped (for the long term). There is still inverse correlation between Dollar/US Equities. And likely this will come with pronouncements of deflation.

As long as there was and continues to be a Federal Reserve, no outcome has ever been deflationary nor will deflation be in our future.

Deflation is monetary deflation. The rise or fall of the price of asset classes is NOT inflationary or deflationary. Moreover, the falling price of the most visible asset class (US Equities) is NOT evidence of past or future deflation.

Because the outcome is and will continue to be inflationary.  Many may believe that this will help US Equities to rise in nominal terms. A very incorrect assumption. Inflation will help asset classes with poor fundamentals (US Equities) from falling as far as they otherwise would. But fall they will. Which is a demand issue not a deflation issue.

The long term relationship of the US Dollar to US Equities is positive correlation. Here is an excerpt from my massive US Dollar Post (link above):

By and large, there is **far more** positive correlation between the Dollar and Equities than there is inverse correlation. They both go up and down together as evidenced in the chart above.

However, many, including myself, have observed that the "weak dollar" is currently fueling the the equity rally right now. So why the discrepancy?

Because we are still in the aftermath of the Greatest Deleveraging Event in History (2008)!

During the meltdown of 2008, everything was sold / redeemed for the relative "safety" (used exceptionally loosely) of Treasuries: shares in hedge funds, commodities,


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Daily S&P500 analysis using Ichimoku charts

Daily S&P500 analysis using Ichimoku charts for July 30th 2009

Courtesy of Larry’s IchimokuCharts.com

Friday, July 31, 2009 at 10:24AM

 

 


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Zero Hedge

Merkel Reverses Course, Now Wants To Protect German Borders From Immigrants

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With her country's political landscape shifting significantly before her, Angela Merkel has now put her political hat on in order to survive politically in Germany.

As France 24 reports, Angela Merkel is urging European Leaders to protect the EU's external borders or risk a "return to nationalism." Merkel said the "freedom of movement" in Europe is at stake as it deals with the worst migration crisis since WWII.

The irony of course, is that it wasn't very long ago that Merkel was vehem...



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Phil's Favorites

EU Approves Deal With Turkey (Then All Hell Breaks Loose)

Courtesy of Mish.

On May 4, Brussels gave its approval to visa-free travel for Turks. That approval still needs to be ratified by a weighted average of ministers as well as the European parliament.

Just a few hours after the Brussels green light, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister who negotiated the deal with German chancellor Angela Merkel.

In between, Renzi and Merkel held a love fest with an extremely skeptical France on the sidelines.

Final result: Uncertain but is Merkel pulling her hair out as her scheme is set to collapse.

My, how things change in a day.

EU Set to Approve Deal With Turkey

Flashback May 4: ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Patch Bankruptcies Hit $34.3 Billion (Value Walk)

The number of oil patch bankruptcies continues to rise, and the number of companies filing for creditor protection is accelerating, that’s according to according to law firm Haynes and Boone LP’s May Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor.

Oil Price Drop Vanquishes Cutting-Edge Projects (Wall Street Journal)

The wo...



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ValueWalk

Donald Trump - How the Ghost of Watergate Haunts This Election

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Donald Trump – How the Ghost of Watergate Haunts This Election

There is a line of reasoning in political circles that says Barack Obama created the phenomenon of Donald Trump.

I aver that Donald Trump is a creation of the post-Watergate media. Collectively we have made running for office so abso...



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Chart School

Market Recap May 5, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

Indexes opened up but once again buyers failed to show much spirit and we saw minor losses as most sat on the sidelines awaiting tomorrow’s employment data.  The S&P 500 fell 0.02% and the NASDAQ 0.18%.   It was a quiet day on the news front.

The NASDAQ continues to drift along our trendline in blue which connects multi year lows.  So if there is a strong reaction to the employment data tomorrow we should see the NASDAQ either bounce off this level or break through it.  It is probably going to take a very weak number to push the NASDAQ through a level like this so one might be apt to expect a “relief bounce” of some sort.  This was the NASDAQ’s 10th down day out of 11.

“An oversold bounce is likely to interrupt the pullback in the SPX today, b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

"I Can Only Say I'm Sorry" - Self-Professed Bitcoin "Creator" Can't Provide Proof, Backs Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two years after Newsweek wrote an inaugural article upon returning to print in which it "unmasked" bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and which turned out be a hoax (the author "found" Nakamoto using a white pages search), earlier this week the world was fixated on the story of another self-professed bitcoin "creator", this time Australian entrepreneuer Craig Wright, who &quo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500- Reversal patterns taking place of late at resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

How many of you like “Choppy/Sideways” markets? I humbly suspect that most don’t. They do present some short-term trading opportunities for sure, nothing wrong with that. From a trend perspective, I would understand if some think a sideways pattern is boring.

Below takes a close look at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500 has spent the last couple of years, forming...



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Biotech

Cantor Says Relypsa's Veltassa Metrics Look Favorable

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Relypsa Inc (NASDAQ: RLYP) shares have plummeted 51 percent year-to-date, under pressure from debt-financing related concerns. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Mara Goldstein reiterated a Buy rating for the company, while reducing the price target from $42 to $41. The analyst believes the 1Q16 results would be “a stabilizing force for the shares.”

Positive Data Points For Veltassa Launch

Veltassa metrics look favorable so far, including a low payer rejecti...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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