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Posts Tagged ‘Anirvan Banerji’

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan Still Blowing Smoke

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan Still Blowing Smoke

Woman Smoking

Courtesy of Mish 

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, co-founders of ECRI maintain the ECRI’s WLI Weekly Leading Index (Still) Widely Misunderstood

I am going to cut to the chase because all Achuthan and Banerji did in that piece is blow smoke without addressing the critical issue. Here is the key paragraph.

It’s true enough, based on the four decades of publicly available data, that WLI growth has never dropped this far without a recession. What most don’t know – apart from the fact that the WLI growth rate shouldn’t be used to predict recessions in the first place – is that, based on two additional decades of data not available to the general public, there are a couple of occasions (in 1951 and 1966) when WLI growth fell well below current readings, but no recessions resulted.

ECRI Still Has Explaining To Do

Lakshman Achuthan chastised Rosenberg in the above article (but not by name) for doing exactly what the ECRI did: Propose the WLI can be used to predict recessions.

I documented proof of that in ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators at Negative 9.8; Has the ECRI Blown Yet Another Recession Call?

Just The Facts Maam, Not The Spin

If the ECRI does not want people assuming the WLI can be used as a recession forecast, then perhaps they ought not present it that way.

Please consider some charts and text from the ECRI publication The Great Recession and Recovery:

ECRI Weekly Leading Index

"This is an index that’s been around for over a quarter of a century, and over that time (shown here) it has correctly predicted every recession and recovery in real-time."

I need to repeat that, over this entire time period, I was present to see each of the correct recession and recoveries calls in real-time, without false signals in between.

ECRI Clearly Touts the WLI’s Recession Prediction Capabilities

Please read the preceeding two paragraphs in italics slowly and carefully.

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji defense of the ECRI is that the WLI cannot be used to predict recession, yet in a blatant attempt to promote the WLI, the ECRI did just that!

Supposedly the WLI in "real-time" has correctly predicted every recession without a single false signal. Quite frankly that was a blatant attempt by the ECRI to promote the WLI’s recession prediction ability.…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

They're BAAAAACK: The CIT Takeover of OneWest Bank

They’re BAAAAACK: The CIT Takeover of OneWest Bank

By The Banker 

Wow. I mean. Just, wow.

You gotta love these guys.

Two phrases came to mind when I read the headline today about CIT Group taking over OneWest Bank.

First: “History does not repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme.”

And

...



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Insider Scoop

Deckers Outdoor Conference Call Highlights

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DECK Deckers Trends Up On FQ2 Beat; Analysts Upgrade, Boost Targets Benzinga's Top Upgrades Ex-KPMG Partner Sentenced for Insider Trading (Fox Business)

Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK) reported its first-quarter earnings on Thursday. Shares of the company are up more than six percent...



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Chart School

5 Things To Ponder: Gates & Houses

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

"The world is all gates, all opportunities, strings of tension waiting to be struck." - Ralph Waldo Emerson

This past week was inundated with a variety of financial and geopolitical events that had me scrambling to say abreast of the issues. However, there was one issue in particular that was obscured by the news flow of MH-17 and Israel, a ruling by the S.E.C. to put "gates" on mutual fund redemptions.

"This past Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission voted 3-2 to require institutional money market mutual funds to adopt a floating net asset value. The SEC also imposed liquidity fees and redemption gates, changes that muni market groups have said will hurt the market as well as state and loc...



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Zero Hedge

ObamaFraud: GAO Study Finds Almost All Fake Applicants Are Approved For Subsidized ObamaCare

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg

ObamaFraud: GAO Study Finds Almost All Fake Applicants are Approved for Subsidized ObamaCare

Although it hasn’t been a focus for a while, the incompetent disaster that has been the ObamaCare rollout has been well documented on this site. Here are just a few posts on the subject:

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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