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Posts Tagged ‘Bear market rally’

John Mauldin: “Nobody’s holding a gun to your head” on stocks

John Mauldin: “Nobody’s holding a gun to your head” on stocks

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

John Mauldin believes we have just seen a pretty amazing trading rally aka cyclical bull/bear market rally. Stocks are more than 60% above March lows.  But many stocks are at “nosebleed” valuation levels and that makes him suspect this is not an opportune entry point for stock market investors.

He counsels utilities (like Bill Gross) or fixed income (like me).  Gold is another market I like (though the run-up of late and the violent pullback should have you concerned).

See the video below for John’s comments in full (Hat tip Barry Ritholtz).

 


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How Much Longer Can This Bear Market Rally Last?

How Much Longer Can This Bear Market Rally Last?

bear marketCourtesy of Kevin Depew at Minyanville

How long, O Lord, how long? It’s always good to remember that the stock market is not the economy. Every day I come into the office to find literally dozens of emails complaining that the market is ignoring the relentlessly bearish news flow. But that doesn’t bother me. What will bother me is when we start getting good news. Markets tend to reach exhaustion on good news, not bad. And these days it’s hard to discern between what’s merely bad and what’s actually disastrous. So, let’s take a look at what the difference between the two really is, and what it means going forward.

A recently released Societe Generale report outlined a "Worst-Case Debt Scenario," one which they believe is a very low probability. Their central scenario assumes a slow global recovery, with private debt being transferred to governments. Fair enough. We’re well on our way there.

Comparing US and Japan, albeit from SocGen’s more sanguine standpoint, there’s some reason to believe the US could feasibly accommodate a Japan-esque 200% of GDP debt burden, which would essentially double 2010′s projected 100% of GDP debt burden. The reason this might not collapse the dollar is because there are no attractive alternatives. Government debt is a global problem, and when you look at the US government debt on a comparative basis, the figures, while high, aren’t extraordinary — at least within that context. More on this momentarily.

As a brief digression, I don’t believe that all government debt is bad by definition. Some are dogmatic on that point. While I do find a framework for understanding economics through the Austrian school, the reality is that no one is going to be able to squeeze pure, free-market toothpaste back into the tube. In fact, Ron Paul’s quixotic quest to end the Federal Reserve could actually succeed… only I can promise you it would soon be replaced by a similar central bank mechanism with a different name, slightly altered agenda, and new cast members. In other words, more of the same; let’s be realistic.

Also, remember that governments worldwide have a long history of supporting failed industries only to turn around and re-privatize them at a later date. It’s the government version of the private-equity game (buy ‘em, repackage ‘em, sell…
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How Low Can We Go?

How Low Can We Go?

how low can we go?Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The six-month long global stock market is losing steam, which begs the question: how low can we go?

Is this a new Bull market or just another typical Bear Market rally? Let’s look at two charts for clues.

First, read the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below: these are the free rantings of an amateur ignoramous, etc. etc.

Before we glance at the charts, let’s ask: has anything really been fixed in the global financial markets and economy, or have all the problems just been papered over with trillions in central bank bail-outs, loan guarantees, stimulus and bogus accounting/statistical lies?

The VIX is one measure of volatility or what is sometimes called "the fear index." When confidence reigns supreme (with an emphasis on the "con") then the market players see no reason to bid up options to protect themselves from potential drops into the abyss. So when confidence is high then the VIX is low and stable:

VIX

When the wheels finally fell off the MSM/central bank fantasy that "subprime is under control" then fear sprouted wings and the VIX soared.

Judging by the VIX’s return to the low-to-mid 20s, then confidence has returned in full force and the fears of a global meltdown have vanished.

Nice, but what if nothing has really been fixed? What if market participants sniff out that everything’s just been swept under the rug? What if the $7 trillion commercial real estate market in the U.S. is about to slip into the abyss of domino defaults?

The Shanghai market’s sudden 10% drop in only two days suggests not all global players are convinced.

The MACD on the VIX is crossing at a very low level, suggesting a lengthy period of rising volatility could be upon us. The stochastic has been rising for awhile now, having made a bullish cross last month.

In sum: the VIX seems to be warning us low volatility may be giving way to higher volatility.

Here’s a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

DJIA

One fairly predictable pattern in any market chart is that price tends to oscillate between the upper and lower Bollinger band. I’ve marked this trait with small blue lines.

When markets are trending strongly, they can ride the Bollinger bands up or down. But if this is once again…
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Even Tricky Dick Thinks It Is A Bear Market Rally

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at ZH

Even Tricky Dick Thinks It Is A Bear Market Rally

Weekend humor


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Zero Hedge

Finally The "Very Serious People" Get It: QE Will "Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When "very serious people" (even if it is those who once ran now defunct Bear Steanrs) announce it, with a 6 year delay, they make the Financial Times.

On the other hand, when Zero Hedge said precisely this 6 years ago, it was cast as a tin-foil clad group of conspriators who see the worst in every situation.

What is "it"? This:

The long-term consequences of global QE are likely to permanently impair living standards for generations to come while creating a false illusion of reviving prosperity.

In this case, it was said ...



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Phil's Favorites

The American Dream Part 2 - We Now Live In A "Pimpocracy"

Courtesy of Bill Bonner at Acting-Man blog

Shabby Immensity

Today, we continue mouth wide open (Part 1 here) … staggered by the shabby immensity of it … a tear forming in the corner of our eye.

Yes, we are looking at how the US economy, money and government have changed since President Nixon ended the gold-backed monetary system in 1971. It is not pretty.

We already know about the money. Since 1971, it’s been a credit-based, not a gold-based, system. The pre-1971 economy had three key characteristics:

1) It was healthy – Industry made things and sold them at a profit

2) It was fair – Financial progress was fairly evenly distributed.

3) It was solvent – The US was a creditor, not a debtor, n...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Only two of the eight indexes on my world market watch, list posted a weekly gain. The top performing Shanghai Composite rose 2.04%, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng as a distant second at 0.46%. The losses of the other six indexes ranged from -1.05% to -2.84%, with the average of the eight at -1.10%, the worst since the -1.21% at the end of January.

Here is an overlay of the eight for a sense of their comparative performance so far in 2015.

Here is a table of the 2015 data performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. Seven of eight indexes are in the green, with Germany's DAXK up over 20%. At the bottom of the list, India's SENSEX is fractionally in the red, the US's S&P 500 is up a tiny 0.10%.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The table...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Raymond James Downgrades Power Integrations To Market Perform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related POWI Benzinga's Top Downgrades Benzinga's Volume Movers

Analysts at Raymond James downgraded Power Integrations Inc. (NASDAQ: POWI) from Outperform to Market Perform and removed the price target of $57.00.

Power Integrations shares have dropped 18.42% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 10.69% in the same period.

Power Integrations' shares fell 1.51% to $51.65 in pre-market trading.

Latest Ratings for POWI DateFirmActionFrom...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work -- “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the cur...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March, 23rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin vs. Uber: Bitcoin Lovers Respond to Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

I recently commented that it would not surprise me if bitcoin plunged to $1.00. That was not a prediction, it was a comment.

Still, I still feel a collapse in bitcoin is likely.

For discussion, please see Cash Dinosaur: France Limits Cash Transactions to €1,000, Puts Restrictions on Gold; Bitcoin End Coming?

In response, reader Creighton writes ...

Hello Mish

While I'm not going to argue the point about the possibility that Bitcoin drops to $1, or less, (that could happen yet, but not for the reasons you propose) I felt it necessary to point out something you seem to have overlooked.

While it's likely that the US government watching Bitco...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Option Review

Cypress Semi Draws Bullish Option Plays

Bullish trades abound in Cypress Semiconductor options today, most notably a massive bull call spread initiated in the July expiry contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased 30,000 of the Jul 16.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.89 each and sold the same number of Jul 19.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.22 apiece. Net premium paid to put on the spread amounts to $0.67 per contract, thus establishing a breakeven share price of $16.67 on the trade. Cypress shares reached a 52-week high of $16.25 back on Friday, March 13th, and would need to rally 4.6% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point of $16.25. The spread generates maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract in the event that CY shares surge more than 20% in the next four months to reach $19.00 by July expiration. Shar...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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