Posts Tagged ‘Bear market rally’

John Mauldin: “Nobody’s holding a gun to your head” on stocks

John Mauldin: “Nobody’s holding a gun to your head” on stocks

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

John Mauldin believes we have just seen a pretty amazing trading rally aka cyclical bull/bear market rally. Stocks are more than 60% above March lows.  But many stocks are at “nosebleed” valuation levels and that makes him suspect this is not an opportune entry point for stock market investors.

He counsels utilities (like Bill Gross) or fixed income (like me).  Gold is another market I like (though the run-up of late and the violent pullback should have you concerned).

See the video below for John’s comments in full (Hat tip Barry Ritholtz).

 


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How Much Longer Can This Bear Market Rally Last?

How Much Longer Can This Bear Market Rally Last?

bear marketCourtesy of Kevin Depew at Minyanville

How long, O Lord, how long? It’s always good to remember that the stock market is not the economy. Every day I come into the office to find literally dozens of emails complaining that the market is ignoring the relentlessly bearish news flow. But that doesn’t bother me. What will bother me is when we start getting good news. Markets tend to reach exhaustion on good news, not bad. And these days it’s hard to discern between what’s merely bad and what’s actually disastrous. So, let’s take a look at what the difference between the two really is, and what it means going forward.

A recently released Societe Generale report outlined a "Worst-Case Debt Scenario," one which they believe is a very low probability. Their central scenario assumes a slow global recovery, with private debt being transferred to governments. Fair enough. We’re well on our way there.

Comparing US and Japan, albeit from SocGen’s more sanguine standpoint, there’s some reason to believe the US could feasibly accommodate a Japan-esque 200% of GDP debt burden, which would essentially double 2010′s projected 100% of GDP debt burden. The reason this might not collapse the dollar is because there are no attractive alternatives. Government debt is a global problem, and when you look at the US government debt on a comparative basis, the figures, while high, aren’t extraordinary — at least within that context. More on this momentarily.

As a brief digression, I don’t believe that all government debt is bad by definition. Some are dogmatic on that point. While I do find a framework for understanding economics through the Austrian school, the reality is that no one is going to be able to squeeze pure, free-market toothpaste back into the tube. In fact, Ron Paul’s quixotic quest to end the Federal Reserve could actually succeed… only I can promise you it would soon be replaced by a similar central bank mechanism with a different name, slightly altered agenda, and new cast members. In other words, more of the same; let’s be realistic.

Also, remember that governments worldwide have a long history of supporting failed industries only to turn around and re-privatize them at a later date. It’s the government version of the private-equity game (buy ‘em, repackage ‘em, sell…
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How Low Can We Go?

How Low Can We Go?

how low can we go?Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The six-month long global stock market is losing steam, which begs the question: how low can we go?

Is this a new Bull market or just another typical Bear Market rally? Let’s look at two charts for clues.

First, read the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below: these are the free rantings of an amateur ignoramous, etc. etc.

Before we glance at the charts, let’s ask: has anything really been fixed in the global financial markets and economy, or have all the problems just been papered over with trillions in central bank bail-outs, loan guarantees, stimulus and bogus accounting/statistical lies?

The VIX is one measure of volatility or what is sometimes called "the fear index." When confidence reigns supreme (with an emphasis on the "con") then the market players see no reason to bid up options to protect themselves from potential drops into the abyss. So when confidence is high then the VIX is low and stable:

VIX

When the wheels finally fell off the MSM/central bank fantasy that "subprime is under control" then fear sprouted wings and the VIX soared.

Judging by the VIX’s return to the low-to-mid 20s, then confidence has returned in full force and the fears of a global meltdown have vanished.

Nice, but what if nothing has really been fixed? What if market participants sniff out that everything’s just been swept under the rug? What if the $7 trillion commercial real estate market in the U.S. is about to slip into the abyss of domino defaults?

The Shanghai market’s sudden 10% drop in only two days suggests not all global players are convinced.

The MACD on the VIX is crossing at a very low level, suggesting a lengthy period of rising volatility could be upon us. The stochastic has been rising for awhile now, having made a bullish cross last month.

In sum: the VIX seems to be warning us low volatility may be giving way to higher volatility.

Here’s a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

DJIA

One fairly predictable pattern in any market chart is that price tends to oscillate between the upper and lower Bollinger band. I’ve marked this trait with small blue lines.

When markets are trending strongly, they can ride the Bollinger bands up or down. But if this is once again…
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Even Tricky Dick Thinks It Is A Bear Market Rally

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at ZH

Even Tricky Dick Thinks It Is A Bear Market Rally

Weekend humor


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Phil's Favorites

Investing podcasts with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

 

Business vs. Investing, w/ Jason Zweig and Morgan Housel – [Invest Like the Best, EP.50]

My guests this week are both veterans of the podcast, Jason Zweig and Morgan Housel. They are two of the best in the world at making the complicated simple, and in that spirit, I’ll keep this introduction short. Morgan shifted from public markets to the private markets a year ago when he joined the Collaborative Fund, so we begin with what he has learned about venture capital in his first year on the job. ~ Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Notes and references here. 

 

Buying Companies With Economic Moats, w/ Pat Dorsey – [Invest Like the Best, EP.51]

My ...



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ValueWalk

Lazada - The Amazon Of South East Asia?

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

You heard of Amazon.com of course, but what about Lazada? If you have not, you probably should have. Find out more below on the company and other e-commerce giants in Asia

Key Findings from the Map of E-Commerce made by iPrice Group

The potential of e-commerce in Southeast Asia (SEA) is irrefutable. With a population of more than 600 million people paired with predictions by giants such as Google and Temasek that the digital economy would become a US$25 billion industry by 2020, local and international players has emerged in the region to realise its full potential. Among the fastest growing countries in the SEA region is Malaysia. According to forecast, the Malaysian e-commerce is approximately worth USD$5.7...



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Biotech

Will CRISPR fears fade with familiarity?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Will CRISPR fears fade with familiarity?

Courtesy of Patricia StapletonWorcester Polytechnic Institute

With all these ‘test-tube babies’ grown up, how have our reactions to the technology evolved? AP Photo/Alastair Grant

The first “test-tube baby” made headlines around the world in 1978, setting off intense debate on the ethics of researching human ...



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Zero Hedge

Jackson Hole Preview: Market Reactions, And Why UBS Says It's "Nothing To Skip Lunch Over"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Historically the annual Jackson Hole symposium has been a major market-moving event as it has traditionally been the venue where central banks make critical announcements such as Bernanke's preview and hints of QE2 and QE3 in 2012, as well as Draghi's suggestion of the ECB's QE in 2014. As shown in the chart below, market reactions following these events have been material.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Returns 2,129% YTD

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We'll preface this post by saying we have never heard of the Alternative Money Fund - which "Specializes in Returning Freedom and Value" - and very well may never hear of it again, however it is notable for two things: i) it is a "hedge fund" invested entirely in cryptocurrencies and ii) it has allegedly generated a 2,129% return YTD, making it the best performer in hedgeco's ranking of asset managers YTD.

The "fund's" own description is similar to what one would find in any traditional asset manager, with one...



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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WUBA Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 22, 2017 Watch These 8 Huge Call Purchases In Tuesday Trade Chinese Stock Is Gaining Ground (GuruFocus) Related SBUX ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 21st, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Aug 20, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The story of 2017 has been “lack of volatility”.  There is finally some volatility entering the market, which is nice for those out there who like to actually trade a bit rather than buy and hold.  In last week’s recaps we noted the NYSE McClellan Indicator had registered an extreme oversold reading so a “rubber band” type of snap back rally could happen.

Thursday it hit an extreme level over -80 which we don’t see very often which can lead to short term snap back rallies.  But until we get back to sustained levels over zero caution remains in order.

So that “snap back” rally happened Monday – credit given to “an ebb in pressure between North Korea and the U.S. but the real headline should have been “the market was overs...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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