Posts Tagged ‘bears’

Bernanke Bears on Bank of America (BAC) and NFLX!

They are at it again!

Those fabulous Bernanke Bears have a great discussion about the merits of BAC, listening to WikiLeaks and investing in NFLX.  I am exploring the technology to have all of my posts read by bears as everything seems so much nicer when explained by a cartoon bear, don’t you think?  

 


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26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market?

26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market?

Courtesy of Mish 

computer tradingHere is an interesting snip from August 31 Market Commentary by Art Cashin for UBS. Sorry, no link.

Monday’s market evaporated nearly all the gains from Friday’s rally. Despite lighter volume, it was a 90% down day. That means the bears got a lopsided advantage in negative breadth and negative volume. In Friday’s rally, the bulls had had a similar 90% advantage. Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors says 26 of the last 88 trading days have been 90% days – one way or another. Any wonder the public is wary.

Are these 90% Days a Good Thing?

While the big boys push the market around, small investors have thrown in the towel and are not coming back.

Market volume now consists of black boxes pushing all stocks one way or the other on 30% of the days. Is this a good thing? For who? Investors or Goldman Sachs?

Holding the Line

Today, the 1040 level on the S&P held for about the 8th time on "fabulous" news consumer confidence rose to 53. Bear in mind number in the 70′s are typical of recession lows.

How long the 1040 level can hold is a mystery, but each bounce seems to be weaker and weaker.

Last Friday, I noted Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; while asking "what’s next?"

We have a partial answer already. Treasuries have regained the entire selloff that started (and ended) on the "great news" that 2nd quarter GDP was +1.6% instead of the expected +1.4%. Never mind that growth was revised down twice from above +2.5% to +1.6%.

Looking ahead, I expect GDP to be negative in the 3rd quarter.

Art Cashin’s 17.6 Year Cycles

A little over a year ago Art Cashin commented Dow Trapped in 17-Year Cycle

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered CNBC his stock-market insights. Cashin decried the idea of a second stimulus, in light of the "infamous" first attempt.

"There was no ‘stimulus’ in the stimulus package. It was mostly social engineering," Cashin said. Thus, talk of a new plan is shaking markets with fears of even more debt — with "nothing to show for it."

Cashin revisited his theory of "the 17.6-year cycle."

"It’s like the Biblical story of the fat


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A Note on Sentiment (The Bullish Case for Stocks Part 1)

A Note on Sentiment (The Bullish Case for Stocks Part 1) 

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds 

Bull standing in farm

The sentiment and media news flow is so uniformly Bearish that I think the herd is running hard--and that makes me hesitant to join it. 

I am seriously demanding you read the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below before reading further because I am conducting a highly speculative thought experiment, NOT offering investment advice. This is the freely offered ramblings of an amateur observer, and nothing else.

The only problem with being Bearish on the stock market now is that everyone else is Bearish, too. Frankly, that’s extremely Bullish. In my many years of observing the stock market, it seems the ideal time to go short is when complacency is running high and bad news is being discounted--say, just like the state of the market in late April, 2010, just before the wheels fell off and the market began its slide to July lows. (Never mind the "flash crash.")

The reverse is also true. The time to get Bullish is when everybody hates stocks, loves bonds and junk bonds, when the financial media is groaning under the weight of Bearish commentary and charts and the few remaining Bulls are dismissed as cheerleaders or mocked as perma-Bulls, and when various charts, historical data and omens all predict that a crash is just around the corner.

That’s what bottoms look like, not tops. Yet the herd is running fast and hard, expecting a crash or a sharp decline in September and October, because that’s what "should happen" for a number of good reasons: the economy sucks, and historically the market tanks in those months.

Except when it doesn’t. How many times does the stock market do what it "should" when almost everyone expects it to?

Let me put it another way: If you really think the market will crash or tank bigtime in mid-August or September, then when do you sell? Do you wait around for the crash? Heck no. You sell long before the anointed window of crashability opens.

In other words, everybody who wanted to sell has already sold. If everybody that wanted to sell has already sold, then who’s left to sell off hard enough to crash the market?

We all expect the market to crash or decline, so we sell, but some mysterious group of clueless money managers who have read…
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Bears Go Into Hibernation – Stock Short Sales at 2-Year Low

Bears Go Into Hibernation – Stock Short Sales at 2-Year Low

Courtesy of Mish

Bear sleeping in den, using rolled up paper money as pillow

The summer stock market blast higher has wiped out the conviction of short sellers. Bears are back in hibernation and Stock Short Sales at 2-Year Low, Data Explorers Says.

Investors are exiting bearish bets on global equities, pushing bullish wagers on stocks to a two- year high versus short sales, according to Data Explorers.

The firm’s long-short ratio has risen to 9.5, having surged from 5.75 in September 2008 when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse intensified the financial crisis, the London- and New York-based securities-research company said. The reading is the highest of the data that goes as far back as July 2008.

“Short sellers are now taking money off the table,” said Will Duff Gordon, a senior researcher at Data Explorers in London. “Perhaps the bears are going back into hibernation?”

Barton Biggs, the hedge fund manager who sold half his equity holdings at the start of July, said today that signs the U.S. economy will avoid a recession spurred him to build the stakes back up.

Whipsaw City

Many traders are getting whipsawed here. Chasing shorts lower and longs higher has certainly been the wrong approach most of this year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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Market Miyagi Says Risk On, Risk Off

Market Miyagi Says Risk On, Risk Off

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

I don’t care if you trade forex, stocks, commodities or bonds – if you’re out here running money in any capacity then you’re braving the Risk On, Risk Off training regimen that the Market Miyagi is putting us through.  It changes daily or bi-daily, but damn if I don’t feel like a pinball on my last ricochet before I head home each night.

Early in the morning, Risk On is signaled by positive economic data points out of China.  The next thing you know, the euro’s being short-squeezed putting pressure on the dollar while US Steel ($X), Freeport Mac ($FCX) and the rest of the industrial-cyclicals are dancing around the maypole with streamers and confetti.

The very next day it becomes Risk Off as the TV studios in Englewood Cliffs welcome the Performing Bears fresh from the Moscow Circus.  Futures are the blood-red opposite of the prior day’s close as the Dollar, the Vix, Gold and Treasuries puff up their chests.

  • Monday the bulls blast a hole in the sky
  • Tuesday the bears say ‘The End is Nigh’
  • Wednesday risk assets are all the rage
  • Thursday fear is back on the front page
  • Etc.

I’ve caught a few of these turns in both directions but there are simply too many to risk catching them all.  Like most patterns, once the crowd catches on and learns to play, it gets even more difficult.  We may not be there yet, but soon. 

"Risk On, Risk Off.  Buy Danielson, Sell Danielson."

And the Market Miyagi stands off in the distance with his arms folded across his chest, grunting his approval at our attempts to run the gauntlet. 


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STOCK MARKET OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO SURGE

STOCK MARKET OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO SURGE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Sentiment data is surging this week.   The Investor’s Intelligence poll is showing a new high in bullishness and a new low in bearishness.  18.9% of advisers tracked in the polling are bearish on stocks.  Bullishness has now surged to 51.1%.   Bullish sentiment is surging versus last week’s reading of 48.9%.

The latest Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey is showing similar optimism.   71% of the respondents  believe that earnings will jump 10% or more over the next 12 months.  This is up dramatically from 53% in March.  The survey also showed that 52% of managers are now overweight equities versus just 33% in February.  Michael Hartnett, Chief Equity Strategist at B of A Merrill Lynch says the Goldilocks scenario is priced into stocks:

“April’s survey shows a growing number of investors envisaging a Goldilocks scenario of above trend growth and benign inflation. The findings are consistent with the view that the US consumer, far from remaining in intensive care, is on the path back to good health.”

Today’s AAII poll showed the same trend in wild bullishness.  Bullish sentiment surged to 48.5%.  This is the highest bullish sentiment since the beginning of the year.  Charles Rotblut at AAII notes that the current skew between bulls and bears is consistent with periods prior to a pull-back, but not representing “irrational exuberance”:

“The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment is at +19. This is a level that has correlated with the past few market pullbacks, though is not a level that suggests irrational exuberance.”

aaii1 STOCK MARKET OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO SURGE

Source: AAII, Investorsintelligence.com 


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Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide

Market Bears – what sub-species are you? "Outwardly concerned with the instability of economies and markets yet cannot resist the urge to speculate in gold stocks"--if that rings true, you’re a David RosenBear. Now you know. – Ilene

Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Bear Field Guide

(read the below in an exaggerated Australian accent, like that guy who took bubble baths with great white sharks and electric eels but for some strange reason died in a freak animal incident.)

Krikey!  This landscape is litrelly filled with Market Bears!  But wait just a tick – there appear to be many different types of bears running about…all with different attributes and markings to help us tell them apart.

Let’s have a peak through the binoculars and see what we’ve got:

The Born-Again Bear (Ursus Scottradeum) - this creature was horribly wounded during two prior market crashes while remaining long and margined to the hilt.  Has since sold entire portfolio at the bottom, subscribed to RGE Monitor and delights in telling the members of his old investment club what morons they are.  Can be found roaring "bwahaha" at other investors on the Yahoo Finance message boards.

The Perma-Bear (Ursus Abelsonious) – the very definition of "creature of habit", Perma-Bears are right 2% of the time but tedious and pedantic 100% of the time.  By never conceding the fact that anything could even possibly be a positive, they render themselves irrelevant, even during actual bear markets.  Many, however, are brilliant and lovable, despite their unwillingness to change or concede.

The Conspiratorial Bear (Ursus Tinfoilicon) – A highly adaptive sub-species of the Perma-Bear.  These animals are known for their over-perspicacity and have foreseen 11 of the last 3 market corrections due to a light social calendar and a fondness for Data-mining & Dragons.  They are, however, always the most interesting bears to behold in the forest and serve the important role of keeping the other woodland creatures on their toes and alert.

The David RosenBear (Ursus Aurum Minotur) – a species that is outwardly concerned with the instability of economies and markets yet cannot resist the urge to speculate in gold stocks.  He will justify his "playing" of precious metals with myriad warnings of inflation, deflation, mega-flation, Gaga-flation etc, but in reality, he is banking on the greater…
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Bulls vs. bears

Bulls vs. bears

Courtesy of Christopher Fountain of For What It’s Worth

Ya gotta love a horse race. Here’s an article from the New York Times that interviews five different analysts and gets six different opinions on where the market’s headed. I think this guy, for instance, is nuts – reminds me of a lot of real estate agents I know. But hey, he could be right, and so could they. I’m not betting on it.

Despite this grim backdrop, Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, a stock market research firm in Westport, Conn., believes that we are in the early stages of a classic bull market that has plenty of room to run.

“At any juncture during a bull market over the last 50 years you could point to economic problems,” he said. “The obvious problems aren’t the ones that I worry about.” In his view, the economic weakness has been documented so well that the market has already taken it into account. “The negatives are right in front of your nose,” he said. “The market is looking past it.”

 


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Dr. Strangebear

Here are a few quick posts by Tim Knight at Slope of Hope. - Ilene

Dr. Strangebear

Or……..how I learned to stopped worrying and love the bull.

I bought a very large position in SSO earlier today for a couple of reasons:

  • I don’t get my jollies out of losing money;
  • The OPEX week clearly has import;
  • I was impressed and convinced by Fujisan’s post last night, calling for – if memory serves – a push to 1086 by Friday.

I am having fewer and fewer compunctions about buying select stocks. That is evident from my watch lists.

One cause for concern for the bulls remains…………..volume! Just take a look at the volume graph; it’s simply pathetic.

0916-sso 

When Does the V Exhaust?

It is generally true that prices climb higher at a far slower rate than they drop. This rally, however, has been a remarkable exception. The push higher has been explosive, and it has pushed higher with just about the same timetable and force as the drop itself.

0916-V

The question, of course, is: when (if ever) will it end?

There are as many opinions as there are traders, but a few general camps would be, using the example of the Russell 2000 above:

  • It has another 10% to go, and it will happen quickly. That would be painful for the bears, but I would hasten to point out that, at that level, the Russell would have completely retraced to the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern spanning three years whose beauty would make bears (if there are any left by then) weep tears of joy.
  • It’s done climbing and will start falling. This has been uttered so many times by so many parties (including, I admit, a few times by me) that it’s not even worth considering anymore. The entire, "OK, now………….errr………OK, NOW!………..oh, wait…………….errr, NOW!" gets really, really old.
  • We’re in a major new bull market and it’s simply going to keep pushing its way through to progressively higher prices.

For the bears out there who would like some encouraging news, the semiconductor index – which is a helpful bellweather – is looking like it is approaching a huge area of resistance. This is why I bought SSG yesterday.

0916-sox  

Snark and Despair All the


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Zero Hedge

Amid Soaring Cobalt Prices, Apple Will Buy Direct From Miners

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One of the most underreported commodity stories of the past year has been the staggering climb in the price of cobalt - a metal that's an essential ingredient of everything from smartphones to electric cars, as BusinessWeek pointed out in a feature about the looming cobalt crisis published last month.

For example, both cobalt and lithium are key components of lithium-ion batteries used in smartphones. And as global demand for electric vehicles is expected to explode thanks to China's heavy handed inducements for urban car ...



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Phil's Favorites

Why Altered Carbon is not about the future - nor is any other science fiction

 

Why Altered Carbon is not about the future – nor is any other science fiction

Netflix

Courtesy of Gavin Miller, University of Glasgow

The hopes and dreams of the technological movement known as “transhumanism” have been brought into the media spotlight thanks to Netflix’s new science fiction series, Altered Carbon (based on Richard Morgan’s 2001 novel).

Transhumanists believe that our species will soon undergo a technological evolution into a new and superior form. While ...



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Insider Scoop

25 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: TTPH) rose 11.5 percent to $2.32 in pre-market trading following announcement of development agreement with Everest Medicines.
  • Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CYCC) rose 8.4 percent to $1.68 in pre-market trading. Cyclacel announced a notice of grant of new European patent covering sapacitabine pharmaceutical formulations.
  • Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (NYSE: KL) rose 5.7 percent to $15.00 in pre-market trading...


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Chart School

Sellers Come In But Semiconductors Gain

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets were set up for sellers with most indices experiencing broad selling. However, the one index which looked set up best for shorts - the Semiconductor Index - actually managed to gain.  Anyone taking up Friday's short in the latter Index will have been stopped out but another shorting opportunity may have presented itself. Technicals haven't returned to becoming net bullish but only the ADX remains to shift.


The S&P eased a little lower but didn't return below what was channel support. Te...

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ValueWalk

Bill Nygren's Stock Picks

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Nygren, Harris Associates U.S. equities CIO and Oakmark Funds portfolio manager, shares his top stock picks and long-term investment strategy.

H/T Dataroma

]]> Get The Full Seth Klarman Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Seth Klarman in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Bill Nygren's Stock Picks

Pro: Three hot stocks to watch from ...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Nears $11,000, Here's A History Of Its Biggest Ups And Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The cryptocurrency rebound off Feb 5th's bloodbath lows (below $6,000 for Bitcoin) has been impressive, as a 'mysterious' massive buyer 'bought the dip' and momentum took care of the rest.

With Bitcoin now nearing $11,000 (almost a double off the lows), ...



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Biotech

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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