Posts Tagged ‘Breakfast with Dave’

What’s Priced In?

What’s Priced In?

priced in? Courtesy of Mish 

This morning’s Breakfast with Dave is another good one. Rosenberg discusses the ISM, car sales, housing, and most importantly "What’s Priced In?" 

Yesterday was an exclamation mark on just how much is priced in because ISM surged to 52.9 (see more below) and pending home sales soared 3.2% MoM (best level since June, 2007, no less) — though construction spending in June did dip 0.2% as declines in nonresidential and public construction overwhelmed the recovery in the residential sector. And there was also the news that global chip sales rose in July for the fifth time in as many months — by a ripping 5.3% (though still down 18.2% YoY). Not only was the stock market down 2.2% yesterday, but it was on higher volume to boot (+19% on the NYSE) — distribution days are never very good signposts.

As everyone knows, we have been very busy working hard to identify what the markets are discounting in terms of future economic growth and came to the conclusion months ago that the equity rally in particular was leapfrogging the outlook. It’s one thing to price out the recession, which is what a 20% rally suggests, but once you surge over 50% from any low the market is usually in year two of the recovery phase. Even if the economy does better than we think it is capable of, the reality is that the stock market has discounted a whole lot of growth — from our lens, two year’s worth. We can debate the macro outlook, to be sure, but the market does look now as though it is going to sit and wait for the fundamentals that have been priced in to come to fruition.

From a purely technical standpoint, which is beyond our purview but must be addressed since so much of the bear market rally was technically-based, a 50% retracement would imply a corrective phase to 840-850 on the S&P 500, which would imply that the market is back to pricing in a 2.0% growth trajectory for the coming year (precisely where the corporate bond market is in terms of its embedded outlook for growth).

Presently, it is still unclear whether or not we are going to necessarily undergo this correction — so many times in this bear market rally buyers have come in after the type of giveback


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Market News

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Financial Markets and Economy

Consumers Spend Even as Confidence Ebbs: U.S. Economic Takeaways (Bloomberg)

The American consumer came back with a vengeance last month. After a sluggish start to the year, households increased spending in April by the most since August 2009.

Sterling Slumps as Phone Poll Shows Brexit Referendum Getting Tighter (Wall Street Journal)

Sterling plunged against the dollar on Tuesday afternoon, after the announcement of an unexpectedly close Brexit poll.

...



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Chart School

Regression to Trend: The Latest Look at Long-Term Market Performance

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Quick take: At the end of May the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 81% above its long-term trend, down slightly from 83% the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.

Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.

The regression trendline drawn through ...



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Phil's Favorites

"Silver Trap" UK Style: Brexit Odds Way Off?

Courtesy of Mish.

We now have an update from Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics on the odds of Brexit.

Despite massive shifts in two polls by The Guardian (online and telephone polls both show Brexit in the lead), and a Telegraph poll yesterday which showed the Brexiteers only trailing by 6 points, down by 15 points the week before, Singh bumped up the odds of Brexit by a mere 2 percentage points to 21%.

Is Singh misreading the polls and a sentiment change just as Nate Silver did with Donald Trump in the US?

Please consider Is Britain heading for Brexit? Latest polls.

Today we got a pair of parallel phone and online polls from ICM for the Guardian. Online showed a 3 point lead fo...



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Zero Hedge

"Jesus, Marx, & Darwin Would Be Banned From Today's Universities" - Oxford Professor Slams 'Safe-Space' Politics

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The impact of US-style "safe space" politics, in which causing offense is held to be a grave sin, is also limiting freedom of speech abroad. As Oxford Professor of European Studies Timothy Garton Ash exclaimed, figures like Jesus, Charles Darwin and Karl Marx would all be banned from British universities today due to the rise of social justice warrior pressure groups and correspondingly populist counter-extremism legislation.

This is "a double-pronged attack on free speech,"...



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ValueWalk

Jim Collins Interviews Jorge Paulo Lemann of 3G Capital (And Gisele Bundchen)

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Jim Collins Interviews Jorge Paulo Lemann of 3G Capital  (And Gisele Bundchen) but for only about two minutes

Big H/T Value Investing World

Also see ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 30th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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