Posts Tagged ‘bubble in housing prices’

Is the Housing Bottom in, or is this just a Seasonal Uptick?

Is the Housing Bottom in, or is this just a Seasonal Uptick?

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are pondering a few charts from my friend "TC" who has plotted the Case-Shiller price history since 1995 for 20 cities. Please click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Absolute Price History 10 Cities

[click on charts for larger views]

housing prices, bottom in housing?

Absolute Price History 10 Additional Cities

Relative Price History 10 Cities

housing prices, relative prices

Relative Price History 10 Additional Cities

May 2009 vs. April 2009

month-over-month price changes in housing

Thoughts From "TC":

Much has been made about prices "hitting bottom" and the market showing signs of stabilization. However, when one dives just a bit deeper into the numbers, it appears the increases are not much more than seasonality.

Another reason for the small price incline on a month-over-month basis is that May 2009 data is the first full month of data since the Federal $8000 Tax Credit took effect (the bill actually passed in mid-February, so March was the first complete month, but escrows aren’t typically closed and sells recorded until May).

In order to showcase how small these price increases actually were in dollar terms, I’ve included a new chart which the price differences of May 2009 vs. April 2009 for all 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller. The changes range from a gain of $5,800 in San Francisco to a continued drop of $1600 in Miami – no city experienced an increase any where near the $8000 Federal Tax Credit.

Median national prices have now fallen 32% peak-to-trough over the past 3 years or $80,000. In the 20 cities that Case-Shiller tracks prices have fallen from 8% in Dallas to 55% in Phoenix. Price declines are highest in CA, NV, AZ, FL and Detroit. In nearly all of the cities prices have now declined back to early 2000 prices and thinly traded futures data points to a bottom occurring in the next 12 months.

It is important for readers to know that Case-Shiller uses a Repeated Sales Methodology (RSM) which provides the most accurate housing data available. Additionally, there are two newer columns titled "Price Level" which show both the last time prices were at the current level and what price level prices are projected to decline to based upon the CME Futures market.

Once again included absolute and relative price charts. The relative


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Zero Hedge

Senior DOJ Official's Wife Worked At Oppo Research Firm That Produced "Trump Dossier"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In what looks to be another embarrassing blow to the FBI’s (already dubious) credibility, Fox News reported Monday night that the senior DOJ official who was demoted last week after allegedly trying to conceal his contacts with the firm that compiled the infamous “Trump dossier” has deep ties to the firm through his wife.

As it turns out, Nellie Oh...



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Phil's Favorites

Life expectancy in Britain has fallen so much that a million years of life could disappear by 2058 - why?

 

Life expectancy in Britain has fallen so much that a million years of life could disappear by 2058 – why?

Courtesy of Danny DorlingUniversity of Oxford and Stuart Gietel-BastenHong Kong University of Science and Technology

via shutterstock.com

Buried deep in a note towards the end of a recent bulletin published by the British government’s statistical agency was a startling revelation. On average, people in the UK are now projected to live ...



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Digital Currencies

No, Bitcoin Won't Boil The Oceans

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Elaine Ou via Bloomberg.com,

Concerns about the cryptocurrency's energy use are overblown...

While much of the world marvels at bitcoin’s meteoric rise, another part is focused on an environmental byproduct:

The sheer amount of electricity that crypto-currencies use.

By some estimates, bitcoin’s consumption ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 10, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Before we talk about the stodgy ole stock market, anyone see that Bitcoin?  $11K last week – $16K this week…. and as I write this bitcoin futures are up over $18K. Just another week in the life…. (here is what you need to know about bitcoin futures)

Back to your regularly scheduled program… the S&P 500 rested a bit while a small correction rolled through the massive winners of 2017 in mega cap tech land, but in the end all was well again by Friday.

“The Nasdaq Composite Index was getting a little frothy, so it&...



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Insider Scoop

Vetr Recommends Walgreens As A Strong Buy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WBA Wall Street's M&A Chatter From December 6: DaVita Medical Group, Cleantech-Brighten Holdings, Walgreens-GuoDa Pete Najarian Sees Unusual Options Activity In Walgreens And AT&T The Vetr community has downgraded $WBA to 4-Stars (Vetr) ...

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Biotech

DNA has gone digital - what could possibly go wrong?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA has gone digital – what could possibly go wrong?

Courtesy of Jenna E. GallegosColorado State University and Jean PeccoudColorado State University

Modern advances come with new liabilities. Sergey ...



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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