Posts Tagged ‘business activity’

Empire State Manufacturing Activity Flattens; Huge Divergences Appear – What Does It Mean?

Empire State Manufacturing Activity Flattens; Huge Divergences Appear – What Does It Mean?

Courtesy of Mish 

Inquiring minds are digging into details of the September Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey for clues on the economy.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions held relatively steady in New York’s manufacturing sector in September. The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.

Business Activity Flattens Out

The general business conditions index remained above zero in September, but inched down three points from August. At 4.1, the index suggests that business activity was little changed over the month. Almost 35 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month—up from the 30 percent who had said so last month, but the percentage that reported worsening conditions increased from 22 percent in August to 31 percent.

Selected Empire State Charts

Current Business Conditions

Expectations Six Months Ahead

Divergences

Current conditions have stabilized while future expectations continue to deteriorate, five consecutive months. Did we just see a "last gasp" in new orders and shipments?

Stabilization?

More interesting yet is the way in which the current conditions index has "stabilized".

A tip of the hat to reader "Ronald" who writes…

In the ten years of data they have on their website, this is the first time I have seen the percentage of businesses showing increases and the number of businesses showing decreases in general activity both increased 2 months running. Moreover, this is the 3rd lowest level of businesses conditions staying at the same level. Finally, when businesses showing deteriorating conditions reached 30 percent, it has typically been during recession and the index has historically been between 0 and -10.

I don’t think this can continue and it looks to me like the number is going to break big up or down.

A quick check shows the…
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GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed’s Counterproductive Policies

GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed’s Counterproductive Policies

Courtesy of Mish 

The BEA has finally admitted something anyone with a modicum of common sense already knew: The recession was far deeper and the "recovery" far weaker than previously reported.

Please consider BEA report Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.

The real story in the report was not the continuing ratcheting down of GDP forward estimates, but rather massive backward revisions, most of them negative, dating back three full years.

Revision Lowlights

  • For 2006-2009, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, the growth rate of real GDP was 0.0 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2010, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent.
  • For the revision period, the change in real GDP was revised down for all 3 years: 0.2 percentage point for 2007, 0.4 percentage point for 2008, and 0.2 percentage point for 2009.
  • For the revision period, national income was revised down for all 3 years: 0.4 percent for 2007, 0.6 percent for 2008, and 0.4 percent for 2009.
  • For the revision period, corporate profits was revised down for all 3 years: 2.0 percent for 2007, 7.2 percent for 2008, and 3.9 percent for 2009.
  • For 2007, the largest contributors to the revision to real GDP growth were a downward revision to PCE, an upward revision to imports, and a downward revision to state and local government spending;
  • The percent change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter in real GDP was revised down from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent for 2007, was revised down from a decrease of 1.9 percent to a decrease of 2.8 percent for


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Services Declining at Slightly Faster Rate

Services Declining at Slightly Faster Rate

Courtesy of Jake’s Econompic Data

ISM details:

  • What respondents are saying:"Economic activity continues to decline." (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • "Continued soft sales, offset by improving profit margins." (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • "Stimulus funds have increased business activity." (Public Administration)
  • "Business downturn seems to be stabilizing somewhat." (Information)
  • "There is still downward pressure on our products; however, our sales volume is stabilizing." (Mining)
  • "The past month’s volume target and operating volumes were met. Rising concerns over the future form of healthcare reform and impact on provider organizations." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Although attendance is up, business levels remain steady. More people, fewer dollars spent — an indication that discretionary spending is limited." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

ISM Services

Source: ISM


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Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Up on Saudi Commitment to Cut; U.S. Output Seen Rising (Reuters)

Oil prices settled up on Monday, as Saudi Arabia's commitments to reducing production offset a report forecasting U.S. output would again rise this year.

Italy will be the next big problem in Europe (Business Insider)

As a new year begins, we look at a key forecast that will bridge 2016 and 2017: the Italian banking crisis. In Geopolitical Futures’ 2016 forecast, we said...



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Zero Hedge

CoLD WaR NuT JoB...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

.

...

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ValueWalk

After Impressive 85% Return In 2016, Hedge Fund Looks To Canadian Gold Producer, Small Banks

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Livermore Partners had a great year, up 85% in 2016! See their full 2016 letter to investors below. But first check out our exclusive interview with PM David Neuhauser on some of the hedge fund’s favorite small caps.

Also see

2016 Hedge Fund Letters Livermore Partners 3Q16 Partners Letter

Letter below

January 16th, 2017

To: Partners:

I’m happy to be writing our Quarterly letter and closing out Livermore’s best year on record. 2016 was without a doubt, volatile. Especially in terms of events causing sharp and sudden correct...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices under pressure on doubts over output cuts (Reuters)

Oil prices were under pressure on Monday due to doubts that large oil producers will reduce production as promised and on expectations that U.S. production would increase again this year.

Shenzhen Stocks Sink Most in 10 Months in Sudden Afternoon Drop (Bloomberg)

Stocks in China’s second-largest equity market plunged the most in 10 months, underscoring the increasing fragility of the nation’s financial assets.

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Regional banks; Breakout test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past 60-days, financial stocks have done well. Over the past 60-days, regional banks have been stellar performers, out producing larger banks and the broad market, by a large percentage. From a risk on stock perspective, seeing large and regional banks do well, has historically been a positive sign.

Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE)_

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

K...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop On A Date?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Back for a brief respite, it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo". Our last episode The Best Thing To Happen To Pooping, Since Your Butt, laid down a historical perspective.  

This week in How To Poop on a Date? we are graced with a delicate shituation: when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".  Oh what to do...


...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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