Posts Tagged ‘business activity’

Empire State Manufacturing Activity Flattens; Huge Divergences Appear – What Does It Mean?

Empire State Manufacturing Activity Flattens; Huge Divergences Appear – What Does It Mean?

Courtesy of Mish 

Inquiring minds are digging into details of the September Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey for clues on the economy.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions held relatively steady in New York’s manufacturing sector in September. The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.

Business Activity Flattens Out

The general business conditions index remained above zero in September, but inched down three points from August. At 4.1, the index suggests that business activity was little changed over the month. Almost 35 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month—up from the 30 percent who had said so last month, but the percentage that reported worsening conditions increased from 22 percent in August to 31 percent.

Selected Empire State Charts

Current Business Conditions

Expectations Six Months Ahead

Divergences

Current conditions have stabilized while future expectations continue to deteriorate, five consecutive months. Did we just see a "last gasp" in new orders and shipments?

Stabilization?

More interesting yet is the way in which the current conditions index has "stabilized".

A tip of the hat to reader "Ronald" who writes…

In the ten years of data they have on their website, this is the first time I have seen the percentage of businesses showing increases and the number of businesses showing decreases in general activity both increased 2 months running. Moreover, this is the 3rd lowest level of businesses conditions staying at the same level. Finally, when businesses showing deteriorating conditions reached 30 percent, it has typically been during recession and the index has historically been between 0 and -10.

I don’t think this can continue and it looks to me like the number is going to break big up or down.

A quick check shows the…
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GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed’s Counterproductive Policies

GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed’s Counterproductive Policies

Courtesy of Mish 

The BEA has finally admitted something anyone with a modicum of common sense already knew: The recession was far deeper and the "recovery" far weaker than previously reported.

Please consider BEA report Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.

The real story in the report was not the continuing ratcheting down of GDP forward estimates, but rather massive backward revisions, most of them negative, dating back three full years.

Revision Lowlights

  • For 2006-2009, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, the growth rate of real GDP was 0.0 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2010, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent.
  • For the revision period, the change in real GDP was revised down for all 3 years: 0.2 percentage point for 2007, 0.4 percentage point for 2008, and 0.2 percentage point for 2009.
  • For the revision period, national income was revised down for all 3 years: 0.4 percent for 2007, 0.6 percent for 2008, and 0.4 percent for 2009.
  • For the revision period, corporate profits was revised down for all 3 years: 2.0 percent for 2007, 7.2 percent for 2008, and 3.9 percent for 2009.
  • For 2007, the largest contributors to the revision to real GDP growth were a downward revision to PCE, an upward revision to imports, and a downward revision to state and local government spending;
  • The percent change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter in real GDP was revised down from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent for 2007, was revised down from a decrease of 1.9 percent to a decrease of 2.8 percent for


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Services Declining at Slightly Faster Rate

Services Declining at Slightly Faster Rate

Courtesy of Jake’s Econompic Data

ISM details:

  • What respondents are saying:"Economic activity continues to decline." (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • "Continued soft sales, offset by improving profit margins." (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • "Stimulus funds have increased business activity." (Public Administration)
  • "Business downturn seems to be stabilizing somewhat." (Information)
  • "There is still downward pressure on our products; however, our sales volume is stabilizing." (Mining)
  • "The past month’s volume target and operating volumes were met. Rising concerns over the future form of healthcare reform and impact on provider organizations." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Although attendance is up, business levels remain steady. More people, fewer dollars spent — an indication that discretionary spending is limited." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

ISM Services

Source: ISM


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Zero Hedge

Global Financial Crisis Coming - Japan Warns of "Lehman-Scale" Crisis At G7

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

Global Financial Crisis Coming – Japan Warns of “Lehman-Scale” Crisis At G7

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned his Group of Seven counterparts on Friday that the world may on the brink of a global financial crisis on the scale of Lehman Brothers.


...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Are We Ready for the Next Recession? (PS Mag)

Sometime in the next three years, the United States economy will likely enter another recession.

In Australia, All That Glitters Isn't Gold (Bloomberg View)

If Australia is an economic miracle -- the so-called Lucky Country, beneficiary of more than a quarter century of uninterrupted growth -- then its banks are its most visible sign of strength. After a near-death experience in the 1990s, they’ve reformed and bounced ...



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Phil's Favorites

Study Says Lie to Employees to Get Them to Work Harder Without Paying Them More

Courtesy of Mish.

A study that no doubt wasted money concluded employers could get employees to work harder by doing one of two things:

  1. Giving them meaningful work
  2. Convincing the employees their work is meaningful when it isn’t.

Please consider How to Get Employees To Work Harder Without Paying Them More.

A new study walks through a solution to an age-old conundrum for employers: how to make employees work harder without paying them more.

The answer is to give them meaningful work, acc...



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Chart School

Respectable Finish To Week

Courtesy of Declan.

Semiconductors were the star of the week.  The index cleared Match/April congestion and posted six consecutive winning days in a row. Technicals are all in the green and the index is above all key moving averages. Weakness will be a buying opportunity; a test of the 50-day MA would be a good start.


The Russell 2000 managed to regain the prior rising channel. Technicals are positive although it still has to make up relative ground against the Nasdaq. The index hasn't yet cracked new highs but one more days gain may be en...

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ValueWalk

Brian Bares on His Favorite Investment Books and Resources

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Brian Bares on His Favorite Investment Books and Resources

Here are some books he recommends

Berkshire Hathaway letters 

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



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Insider Scoop

Graham Media Group To Buy WCWJ, CW affiliate In Jacksonville, NBC Affiliate in Roanoke

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Graham Media Group, Inc., a Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) subsidiary, said it struck a deal with Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and Media General, Inc. to purchase WCWJ, a CW affiliate television station in Jacksonville, Florida and WSLS, an NBC affiliate television station in Roanoke, Virginia for $60 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities.

The agreement to acquire Nextar Broadcasting included pension obligations. Graham Media Group, Inc. would continue to operate both stations under their current network affiliations.

Graham Media said the acquisition is subject to approval by the FCC, other regulatory appr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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